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Results for “joint state estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Spectrally separable photon-pair generation in dispersion engineered thin-film lithium niobate

Existing nonlinear-optic implementations of pure, unfiltered heralded single-photon sources do not offer the scalability required for densely integrated quantum networks. Additionally, lithium niobate has hitherto been unsuitable for such use due to its material dispersion. We engineer the dispersion and the quasi-phasematching conditions of a waveguide in the rapidly emerging thin-film lithium niobate platform to generate spectrally separable photon pairs in the telecommunications band. Such photon pairs can be used as spectrally pure heralded single-photon sources in quantum networks. We estimate a heralded-state spectral purity of >94% based on joint spectral intensity measurements. Further, a joint spectral phase-sensitive measurement of the unheralded time-integrated second-order correlation function yields a heralded-state purity of (86 ± 5)%.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Compound Continental Risk of Multiple Extreme Floods in the United States

Abstract Understanding spatially correlated floods and modeling joint hazard associated with threshold exceedances across multiple locations is crucial for accurate estimation of continental‐scale portfolio risk. This work uses a non‐parametric copula‐based spatial simulator to analyze peak floods across the United States to derive the first‐of‐its‐kind continental portfolio risk estimates at the 10‐ and 100‐year return levels. We find significant interdependence in floods across the nation, revealing the recurring pattern of extreme events affecting the Northeast, Central, West, and Northwest United States in the same year. The stochastic simulator effectively manages high‐dimensional data and offers reliable uncertainty estimates for both spatially dependent floods and the aggregated flood losses at the continental level. El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are identified as statistically significant tele‐connectors of aggregate loss. This research aims to advance the understanding of compound continental flood hazard and the potential large‐scale climate teleconnections that lead to such compound floods.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Convex Relaxations of Maximal Load Delivery for Multi-Contingency Analysis of Joint Electric Power and Natural Gas Transmission Networks

Recent increases in gas-fired power generation have engendered increased interdependencies between natural gas and power transmission systems. These interdependencies have amplified existing vulnerabilities in gas and power grids, where disruptions can require the curtailment of load in one or both systems. Although typically operated independently, coordination of these systems during severe disruptions can allow for targeted delivery to lifeline services, including gas delivery for residential heating and power delivery for critical facilities. To address the challenge of estimating maximum joint network capacities under such disruptions, we consider the task of determining feasible steady-state operating points for severely damaged systems while ensuring the maximal delivery of gas and power loads simultaneously, represented mathematically as the nonconvex joint Maximal Load Delivery (MLD) problem. To increase its tractability, we present a mixed-integer convex relaxation of the MLD problem. Then, to demonstrate the relaxation’s effectiveness in determining bounds on network capacities, exact and relaxed MLD formulations are compared across various multi-contingency scenarios on nine joint networks ranging in size from 25 to 1191 nodes. The relaxation-based methodology is observed to accurately and efficiently estimate the impacts of severe joint network disruptions, often converging to the relaxed MLD problem’s globally optimal solution within ten seconds.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gradient-Based Multi-Area Distribution System State Estimation

The increasing distributed and renewable energy resources and controllable devices in distribution systems make fast distribution system state estimation (DSSE) crucial in system monitoring and control. We consider a large multi-phase distribution system and formulate DSSE as a weighted least squares (WLS) problem. We divide the large distribution system into smaller areas of subtree structure, and by jointly exploring the linearized power flow model and the network topology, we propose a gradient-based multi-area algorithm to exactly and efficiently solve the WLS problem. The proposed algorithm enables distributed and parallel computation of the state estimation problem without compromising any performance. Numerical results on a 4,521-node test feeder show that the designed algorithm features fast convergence and accurate estimation results. Comparison with traditional Gauss-Newton method shows that the proposed method has much better performance in distribution systems with a limited amount of reliable measurement. The real-time implementation of the algorithm tracks time-varying system states with high accuracy.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constraints on the Dense Matter Equation of State and Neutron Star Properties from NICER’s Mass–Radius Estimate of PSR J0740+6620 and Multimessenger Observations

In recent years our understanding of the dense matter equation of state (EOS) of neutron stars has significantly improved by analyzing multimessenger data from radio/X-ray pulsars, gravitational wave events, and from nuclear physics constraints. Here we study the additional impact on the EOS from the jointly estimated mass and radius of PSR J0740+6620, presented in Riley et al. by analyzing a combined data set from X-ray telescopes NICER and XMM-Newton. We employ two different high-density EOS parameterizations: a piecewise-polytropic (PP) model and a model based on the speed of sound in a neutron star (CS). Here, at nuclear densities these are connected to microscopic calculations of neutron matter based on chiral effective field theory (EFT) interactions. In addition to the new NICER data for this heavy neutron star, we separately study constraints from the radio timing mass measurement of PSR J0740+6620, the gravitational wave events of binary neutron stars GW190425 and GW170817, and for the latter the associated kilonova AT2017gfo. By combining all these, and the NICER mass-radius estimate of PSR J0030+0451, we find the radius of a 1.4 M ⊙ neutron star to be constrained to the 95% credible ranges 12.33$^{+0.76}_{–0.81}$km (PP model) and 12.18$^{+0.56}_{–0.79}$km (CS model). In addition, we explore different chiral EFT calculations and show that the new NICER results provide tight constraints for the pressure of neutron star matter at around twice saturation density, which shows the power of these observations to constrain dense matter interactions at intermediate densities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Strong Lensing Cosmology with Population-level Calibrated Neural Ratio Estimation

Strong gravitational lensing contains key information about cosmic acceleration. Modern and next-generation galaxy imaging surveys are expected to provide high-quality data on $\mathcal{O}(10^5)$ galaxy-galaxy lensing systems. The plethora and complexity of the data are likely to present computational challenges for parameter inference methods for fitting high-dimensional likelihoods, which are often analytically intractable. Neural Ratio Estimation (NRE) efficiently computes individual likelihood ratios that can be combined into population-level posteriors. We use simulations to study the capacity of NRE to jointly predict the dark energy equation-of-state parameter $w$ and the total matter density $Ω_{m}$ from lensing images and companion spectroscopic information. We also introduce a post hoc posterior coverage calibration procedure that mitigates the model overconfidence that is typically found in neural density estimation applications. Our experiments show that the errors on both parameters decrease with increasing inference population sizes. In particular, for 100 lenses in a standard $Λ$CDM Universe, our calibrated NRE model achieves median fractional uncertainty of $22.8\%$ in $w$ and $2.9\%$ in $Ω_{m}$. This proof of concept demonstrates a potentially scalable approach for efficient cosmological parameter inference with large populations of galaxy-scale lenses observed in future surveys.

Jarugula, Sreevani [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000253867↗
DOE OSTI2020

Joint Estimation of Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation in a Community

Distribution grid planning, control, and optimization require accurate estimation of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation and electric load in the system. Most of the small residential solar PV systems are installed behind-the-meter making only the net load readings available to the utilities. This paper presents an unsupervised framework for joint disaggregation of the net load readings of a group of customers into the solar PV generation and electric load. Our algorithm synergistically combines a physical PV system performance model for individual solar PV generation estimation with a statistical model for joint load estimation. The electric loads for a group of customers are estimated jointly by a mixed hidden Markov model (MHMM) which enables modeling the general load consumption behavior present in all customers while acknowledging the individual differences. At the same time, the model can capture the change in load patterns over a time period by the hidden Markov states. The proposed algorithm is also capable of estimating the key technical parameters of the solar PV systems. Our proposed method is evaluated using the net load, electric load, and solar PV generation data gathered from residential customers located in Austin, Texas. Testing results show that our proposed method reduces the mean squared error of state-of-the-art net-load disaggregation algorithms by 67%.

behind-the-meter solar generation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distributed State Estimation Over Time-Varying Graphs: Exploiting the Age-of-Information

Here, we study the problem of designing a distributed observer for an LTI system over a time-varying communication graph. The limited existing work on this topic imposes various restrictions either on the observation model or on the sequence of communication graphs. In contrast, we propose a single-time-scale distributed observer that works under mild assumptions. Specifically, our communication model only requires strong-connectivity to be preserved over non-overlapping, contiguous intervals that are even allowed to grow unbounded over time. We show that under suitable conditions that bound the growth of such intervals, joint observability is sufficient to track the state of any discrete-time LTI system exponentially fast, at any desired rate. We also develop a variant of our algorithm that is provably robust to worst-case adversarial attacks, provided the sequence of graphs is sufficiently connected over time. The key to our approach is the notion of a "freshness-index" that keeps track of the age-of-information being diffused across the network. Such indices enable nodes to reject stale estimates of the state, and, in turn, contribute to stability of the error dynamics.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Application-level benchmarking of quantum computers using nonlocal game strategies

In a nonlocal game, two noncommunicating players cooperate to convince a referee that they possess a strategy that does not violate the rules of the game. Quantum strategies allow players to optimally win some games by performing joint measurements on a shared entangled state, but computing these strategies can be challenging. We present a variational quantum algorithm to compute quantum strategies for nonlocal games by encoding the rules of a nonlocal game into a Hamiltonian. We show how this algorithm can generate a short-depth optimal quantum strategy for a graph coloring game with a quantum advantage. This quantum strategy is then evaluated on fourteen different quantum hardware platforms to demonstrate its utility as a benchmark. Finally, we discuss potential sources of errors that can explain the observed decreased performance of the executed task and derive an expression for the number of samples required to accurately estimate the win rate in the presence of noise.

nonlocal games↗
DOE OSTI2023

Physics informed machine learning for chemistry tabulation

Modeling of turbulent combustion system requires modeling the underlying chemistry and the turbulent transport. Solving both systems simultaneously is computationally prohibitive. Instead, given the difference in scales at which the two sub-systems evolve, the two sub-systems are typically (re)solved separately. Popular approaches such as the Flamelet Generated Manifolds (FGM) use a two-step strategy where the governing reaction kinetics are pre-computed and mapped to a low-dimensional manifold, characterized by a few reaction progress variables (model reduction) and the manifold is then “looked-up” during the run-time to estimate the high-dimensional system state by the turbulent transport system. While existing works have focused on these two steps independently, in this work we show that joint learning of the progress variables and the look-up model, can yield more accurate results. Here, we build on the base formulation and implementation to include the dynamically generated Thermochemical State Variables (Lower Dimensional Dynamic Source Terms). We discuss the challenges in the implementation of this deep neural network architecture and experimentally demonstrate its superior performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Multi-Scale Computational Platform for Predictive Modeling of Corrosion in Al-Steel Joints (Final Report)

The research team proposed to develop innovative multi-scale models to predict corrosion and the resulting mechanical performances in aluminum-steel joints. The methods of joining considered are resistance spot welding, self-piercing riveting, and rivet-welding, all suitable for mass production applications. The multi-scale models integrate high throughput first-principle calculations based on density functional theory (DFT), high throughput calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD) modeling, and finite element method (FEM) simulations. These models are to be validated through laboratory experiments. Furthermore, the models are available as open source so as to enable scientists and engineers in the community to adapt and contribute to the development and application. The approaches rely on the research team’s extensive experience on the prediction of properties of individual phases at finite temperatures and variable compositions through DFT calculations, and our broad expertise on dissimilar material joining and their corrosion. The proposed computational framework enables high throughput computations for improved predictions of corrosion and the associated mechanical performance in dissimilar material joints, resulting in significant reduction in computational time needed by the current state-of-the-art methods. With the participation of researchers from three universities, an auto manufacturer, two manufacturing technology/equipment suppliers, and a software developer/vendor, the interdisciplinary research team applies the technical development on both phase-based modeling and laboratory experiments into the automobile body joining processes for validation and technology demonstration. The global cost of corrosion was estimated at about 3.4% of the global GDP in 2013. By using available corrosion control practices, it is estimated a saving between 15-35% of the cost of corrosion. In the U.S., more than $276 billion is spent repairing corrosion damage. Prediction of the corrosion and its impact on performance of the dissimilar material joints is critical for reducing the massive number of the current corrosion-based recalls for automobiles. Thus, the project goal is to develop models to enable predictive maintenance and end-of-life planning of multi-metal joints with risk of corrosion under different conditions such as exposure to high temperatures in summer and salt solutions in winter, quantified through its pH. An academia-industry consortium led by the University of Michigan and including Pennsylvania State University, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, University of Georgia, General Motors Company, Livermore Software Technology Corporation, and Optimal Process Technologies, LLC. created multi-scale models for prediction of corrosion in aluminum-steel joint structures such of them used in vehicle subassemblies – chassis and transmission systems. Starting from the first principle calculations, the team developed mathematical and data-driven models to predict the metallic components, which are formed during joining of two metals, for example aluminum and steel - a lightweight multilateral system which is currently used in more than 60% car bodies. These models were used for simulating chemical reactions that are happening when the joining metallic components are exposed to high temperatures and different pH values. The team was able to predict how the corrosion installs on the metallic components and how they lead to a sudden failure of components in cars. Newly developed machine learning algorithms combining Science, Technology, Engineering and Math disciplines, advanced finite element simulation and experimental validations have been integrated in a platform for prediction of the corrosion evolution and prediction the failure of joints under mechanical loadings and fatigue. Moreover, based on machine learning and inverse analysis, the team proposed solutions for designing new metallic alloys less susceptible to corrosion when joining multi-material assembles. An average of 4% error compared with experiments was achieved for the most common joints that are used in vehicle subassemblies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enlarging the scope of resonant di-Higgs searches: hunting for Higgs-to-Higgs cascades in 4b final states at the LHC and future colliders

We extend the coverage of resonant di-Higgs searches in the $b\bar{b}b\bar{b}$ final state to the process $pp → H_1 → H_2H_2 → b\bar{b}b\bar{b}$, where both $H_{1,2}$ are spin-0 states beyond the Standard Model. Such a process constitutes a joint discovery mode for the new states $H_1$ and $H_2$. We present the first sensitivity study of this channel, using public LHC data to validate our analysis. We also provide a first estimate of the sensitivity of the search for the HL-LHC and future facilities like the HE-LHC and FCC-hh. We analyze the discovery potential of this search for several non-minimal scalar sector scenarios: an extension of the SM with two extra singlet scalar fields, the two-Higgs-doublet model and a two-Higgs doublet model plus a singlet, which captures the scalar potential features of the NMSSM. We find that this channel represents a novel, very powerful probe for extended Higgs sectors, offering complementary sensitivity to existing analyses.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Diagnostics: Chapter 8 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

This chapter presents the activity conducted by the ITPA topical group (TG) on Diagnostics over about the last 15 years. Following a general introduction of the ITER Diagnostics led by their measurement roles, the document is organized in several subchapters detailing the design support, research and development activity conducted by each of the specialist working groups (WGs) of the TG. Please note that the magnetic diagnostics were supported at the TG without a specific WG. Their status is included in the general introduction. In the following some highlights of the subchapter’s contents are provided. Recent advances in ITER first wall (FW) diagnostics for the measurements of plasma-metallic wall interaction in support of the ITER research plan are reported. An InfraRed imaging Video Bolometer for ITER has been developed and tested on several tokamaks to measure the radiated power loss. A laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique which utilizes a pulsed laser beam to ablate locally by forming a crater, will measure local tritium inventory in the FW material. Real-time Residual Gas Analyzers will measure the neutral gas composition in a divertor port and an equatorial port during plasma operation. Due to the full metallic FW environment, the plasma-wall interaction in ITER will face several challenges such as the compromised radiated power and divertor heat flux measurements by reflection. Ray tracing and analysis codes have been developed to eliminate and correct the effects of reflection in the measurements. The characteristics of the reflecting surfaces depending on the roughness and angle of the incidence have been measured by dedicated experiments, and the results were applied to the reflection elimination. For the measurement of the metallic impurity radiation induced by eroded metallic atoms, a vacuum ultraviolet spectrometer has been developed and tested. An extensive thermonuclear diagnostic suite will be required to support the operation of ITER and the planned experimental program for future burning plasma experiments. Due to the harsh environmental conditions, the implementation of diagnostic systems in ITER is a major challenge. These conditions include high levels of neutron and gamma fluxes, neutron heating, particle bombardment. Therefore, the selection and design of diagnostic systems must take into account a number of phenomena previously unseen in diagnostic design. For this reason, the measurement of neutrons and confined or lost fast ions, with particular emphasis on alpha particles, is critical to ITER. The diagnostics associated with these measurements will be important for future plasma-burning experiments at ITER. The high neutron emission and very large plasma size in ITER make neutron diagnostics the main diagnostic method used to measure plasma parameters such as fusion power, fusion power density, ion temperature, energy of fast ions and their spatial distributions in the plasma core. Active spectroscopy techniques are methods where a neutral particle beam is injected into the plasma and information on plasma parameters is extracted from the measurement of line emission resulting from the beam-plasma interaction, either by plasma ions or by beam atoms. Spatial localization is achieved by crossing the beamline and multiple observation lines. The ITER plasma will be a high temperature, moderately dense, fully ionized collisional plasma. The plasma facing surfaces are principally metallic being fashioned from beryllium or tungsten but many other elements, arising from either structural or from operational needs, may enter this plasma. The energy range of the emitted photons range from meV (infra-red) to multi keV (x-rays) and originate from all areas of the plasma volume. The primary role of passive emission diagnostics is to identify what is in the plasma from spectral signatures. Extracting quantitative information from these measurements such as impurity content, ion temperature, rotation, degree of detachment and radiated power depends on calibrated instruments, a physics model of the atomic and molecular processes and plasma transport and an analysis workflow that takes into account environmental effects such as reflections. The particular needs for ITER have prompted a multi-machine, many-year effort to address all these aspects and this chapter reviews the work on diagnostic design, experiments and new analysis techniques. An overview of the laser diagnostics to be implemented on ITER is also provided in this paper. This includes descriptions of the Thomson scattering in the core, edge and divertor regions, polarimetry and interferometry diagnostics used for measuring plasma density and also measurements of helium density in the divertor using Laser Induced Flourescence. Techniques which can allow improvements on current measurements are also addressed in particular expanding poloidal polarimetry measurements to measure field fluctuations and proposed use of dispersion interferometery which has a number of advantages over existing methods. This paper identifies particular areas where further research and testing on existing tokamaks is useful even at this advanced stage to inform the design of diagnostics for ITER. Outstanding areas of concern for the implementation of laser diagnostics, in particular with a view to reliable operation are identified. An overview of the latest developments of microwave diagnostic systems and techniques is given. The primary focus is the contributions for ITER—the next step burning plasma experiment—which is supplemented by describing recent progress of techniques applicable for fusion experiments beyond ITER. The contributions are intentionally kept concise, and are being supplemented by a rich list of references for further studies. Radiation induced effects are receiving continuous and well-deserved attention of the ITER diagnostic community and they are in many cases one of the primary design drivers of the ITER diagnostic systems. The paper summarizes recent progress in this area focusing primarily on the ITER diagnostics but in some cases provides also outlook for the possible solutions for even more demanding radiation environment of fusion reactors beyond ITER. Despite advancements in the area of modeling and simulation of various radiation induced effects, experimental testing in a nuclear environment as close as possible to the target one is still seen as unavoidable for proper qualification of particular diagnostic functional elements. Recent advancement within three diagnostic areas: optical diagnostics, magnetics and bolometers is covered. Encouraging results on qualification of silica glass vacuum window assemblies are presented. In the area of magnetic sensors, progress of irradiation tests performed on ITER in-vessel LTCC inductive sensors is presented with outlook for novel technological approaches to inductive sensors utilizing thick printing and photolithography technologies being highlighted. Summary of advancements in the area of steady state magnetic field sensors based on Hall effect is given. New results of neutron irradiation test of the ITER borosilicate glass inserts for vacuum electrical feedthroughs are summarized finding negligible swelling at target level of neutron fluence. Off-line irradiation tests of fiber optic current sensors for plasma current measurement demonstrated that both for gamma doses up to 5 MGy and a total neutron fluence up to 10 15 cm −2 , radiation induced changes are still compatible with required measurement accuracy on ITER. The ITER bolometers are given as an example how considering radiation effects may influence the diagnostic design. Finally, outlook for future main R&D directions is outlined. All optical and laser-based diagnostics in ITER will be using mirrors to guide plasma radiation toward detectors, cameras and sensors. In the hostile plasma, radiation and particle environment the optical characteristics of diagnostic mirrors will degrade directly affecting the entire performance of involved diagnostic systems. An assessment of factors affecting mirror performance is provided. Among the prime adverse factors are deposition of plasma impurities, sputtering of mirror surface and steam ingress in the vicinity of mirrors. Within the International Tokamak Physics Activity with active support by ITER central team and domestic agencies, the structured research and development (R&D) program on mitigation of risks for diagnostic mirrors is underway. Within this program the mirror material development, the passive mitigation of mirror degradation by using diagnostic ducts and shutters along with an active mirror recovery program comprising the in-situ mirror cleaning and calibration is underway. Recent developments in diagnostic mirror R&D are described in this Chapter along with an example of their implementation of R&D solutions in ITER Infrared Thermography diagnostic. An assessment of still open engineering and physics questions, considerations on mirror risks during an early phase of ITER operation are given along with an overview of diagnostic mirror evolution in the late ITER operation stage toward the demonstration fusion power plant. Several crucial areas of diagnostic R&D outlined in ITER Research Plan are addressed. The basic control groups in a fusion reactor can be broken-down in five categories: (1) plasma position, magnetic configuration, and plasma current control, (2) profile control and confinement optimization, (3) MHD control and suppression, (4) edge dissipation control, radiation and plasma exhaust control and (5) break-down optimization. These categories are coupled via the physics (a control action in one domain will affect the other domains) and via shared actuators (e.g. ECRH for impurity accumulation avoidance, current density distribution control and MHD suppression). Consequently, a supervisory control system should determine the priority of the various control tasks, their couplings, and the interfaces with the safety and interlock system. For the systematic development of the various controllers taking the complexity of the plasma and the control system into account, a model-based approach is required. A short historical overview is given of the developments in systems and control theory and control engineering with special emphasis on those developments that are most relevant for Nuclear Fusion research and operation. An overview is given of the state of the field of fusion plasma control for the control categories. It will be shown how synthetic diagnostics are being developed in ITER and how they are used in diagnostic design and design validation and how they can be in model-based controller synthesis using relatively simple models. In modern control methods, multiple diagnostics are used to constrain relatively simple models. The constrained models provide an estimate for the state. This opens the route to state controllers, such as model predictive control. A major challenge in nuclear fusion research is the coherent combination of data from heterogeneous diagnostics and modeling codes for machine control and safety as well as physics studies. Measured data from different diagnostics often provide information about the same subset of physical parameters. Additionally, information provided by some diagnostics might be needed for the analysis of other diagnostics. A joint analysis of complementary and redundant data allows, e.g. to improve the reliability of parameter estimation, to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of profiles, to obtain synergistic effects, to consider diagnostics interdependencies and to find and resolve data inconsistencies. Physics-based modeling and parameter relationships provide additional information improving the treatment of ill-posed inversion problems. A coherent combination of all kind of available information within a probabilistic framework allows for improved data analysis results. The concept of integrated data analysis (IDA) in the framework of Bayesian probability theory is outlined and contrasted with conventional data analysis. Components of the probabilistic approach are summarized and specific ingredients beneficial for data analysis at fusion devices are discussed.

ITER↗
DOE OSTI2025

LATTE: open-source, high-performance traveltime computation, tomography and source location in acoustic and elastic media

Traveltime-based tomography and source location are fundamental approaches for imaging subsurface structures and understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of seismicity from local to global scales. We present an open-source, high-performance framework integrating eikonal equation solvers and adjoint-state theory for traveltime computation, velocity tomography, source location and joint tomography-location in 2-D/3-D acoustic and elastic media. We introduce novel regularization schemes based on total generalized p-variation, structural similarity and multitask machine learning to enhance the fidelity and interpretability of inverted models and source locations. Key features of our implementation also include the ability to leverage both absolute-difference and double-difference traveltime misfits for high-fidelity velocity tomography and source parameter estimation; support for traveltime computation and inversion in diverse 2-D/3-D scenarios with arbitrary source and receiver distributions; and a perturbation-based optimal step-size estimation method to reduce computational costs. In addition, our implementation employs shared-memory and distributed-memory parallelization to provide an efficient solution for traveltime computation, tomography, and source location. In conclusion, we validate the efficacy and accuracy of our approach through multiple synthetic data examples.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Creation of Speed-of-Sound Inject Data for Technical Nuclear Forensics

Technical Nuclear Forensics (TNF) exercises simulate a detonation of a nuclear device within the United States, usually in a city. Speed-of-sound (SOS) phenomenology are the atmospheric overpressure and ground shock mechanical motions that are observed at over-pressure (air-blast and infrasound) and seismic sensors, respectively (Figure 1). Amplitudes of SOS data are related to the explosive yield (Kinney and Graham, 1985; Koper et al., 2002; Bonner et al., 2013ab; Ford et al., 2014, 2021; Templeton et al., 2018; Schnurr et al., 2020). Within the country, the United States Prompt Diagnostics System (USPDS) includes a network of geophysical sensors to capture such SOS signals. During the TNF exercise, the event data will be analyzed by the players who know nothing about the technical details of the source (e.g. location, yield, explosive). Specifically, they will use the Integrated Yield Determination Tool (IYDT) to estimate the yield and height-of-burst or depth-of-burial (HOB/DOB). The IYDT allows the user to measure features on the overpressure and seismic channels, evaluate the consistency of features and jointly estimate yield and HOB/DOB. For these exercises, SOS data are simulated for the location, emplacement and yield of the device and signals are propagated to the observing stations. This document describes the steps undertaken in the simulation, validation, preparation and verification of SOS signals for TNF exercises.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

The effect of initial conditions on mixing transition of the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability

We investigate the late-time Richtmyer–Meshkov instability (RMI) growth of sinuous perturbations on an air/sulphur hexafluoride interface (Atwood number, A ~ 0.67 ) subjected to a Mach 1.2 planar shock wave at Los Alamos National Laboratory's vertical shock tube facility. Interface perturbations are established using a novel membraneless technique where cross-flowing air and SF 6 separated by an oscillating splitter plate create a perturbed density interface. The interface formed has multi-modal features and residual small perturbations, however, a dominant mode is still noticeable. The late-time perturbation growths scale with $ka_0$ initial conditions (where $k$ is the wavenumber and $a_0$ is the initial amplitude of the dominant mode) as measured at the pre-shock interface. Past nonlinear models based on potential-flow theory, heuristic/interpolation approaches, Padé approximants and numerical simulations are evaluated against present experimental results. Accounting for an explicit $ka_0$ dependence in Sadot et al.'s model, we propose an empirical rational function that captures the asymptotic behaviour of perturbation growth for a broad range of initial conditions ( 0.30 $≤ ka_0 ≤$ 0.86 ). The onset of mixing transition and its initial condition dependence are investigated with respect to the minimum state criterion ($Re =$ 1.6 $\times$ 10 5 ) for unsteady flows by Zhou. Earlier mixing transitions for higher ka0 initial conditions are noted from local and global Reynolds number estimates which are corroborated by the existence of an inertial sub-range and formation of mixing regions indicating the physical significance of the minimum state criterion in RMI flows. The transition is accompanied by the increasing teapot-like appearance of joint probability density functions of $p–q$ (invariants of the reduced velocity gradient tensor), establishing the technique as a useful tool for turbulence detection in two-dimensional diagnostics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reducing model error using optimized galaxy selection: weak lensing cluster mass estimation

Galaxy clusters are one of the most powerful probes to study extensions of General Relativity and the Standard Cosmological Model. Upcoming surveys like the Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time are expected to revolutionise the field, by enabling the analysis of cluster samples of unprecedented size and quality. To reach this era of high-precision cluster cosmology, the mitigation of sources of systematic error is crucial. A particularly important challenge is bias in cluster mass measurements induced by the mismodelling of photometric redshift estimates of source galaxies. This work proposes a method to optimise the source sample selection in cluster weak lensing analyses drawn from wide-field survey lensing catalogs to reduce the bias on reconstructed cluster masses. We use a combinatorial optimisation scheme and methods from variational inference to select galaxies in latent space to produce a probabilistic galaxy source sample catalog for highly accurate cluster mass estimation. We show that our method reduces the critical surface mass density Σ crit relative modelling bias on the 60-70% level, while maintaining up to 90% of galaxies. We highlight that our methodology has applications beyond cluster mass estimation as an approach to jointly combine galaxy selection and model inference under sources of systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗