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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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We devised a model to interpret discordant SARS-CoV-2 test results. We estimate that, during March 2020–May 2022, a patient in the United States who received a positive rapid antigen test result followed by a negative nucleic acid test result had only a 15.4% (95% CI 0.6%–56.7%) chance of being infected.
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The multiscale and turbulent nature of Earth's atmosphere has historically rendered accurate weather modeling a hard problem. Recently, there has been an explosion of interest surrounding data-driven approaches to weather modeling, which in many cases show improved forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency when compared to traditional methods. However, many of the current data-driven approaches employ highly parameterized neural networks, often resulting in uninterpretable models and limited gains in scientific understanding. In this work, we address the interpretability problem by explicitly discovering partial differential equations governing atmospheric phenomena, identifying symbolic mathematical models with direct physical interpretations. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that, in particular, the weak-form sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (WSINDy) algorithm can learn effective atmospheric models from both simulated and assimilated data. Our approach adapts the standard WSINDy algorithm to work with high-dimensional fluid data of arbitrary spatial dimension.
The focus of the project is on building an innovative accelerated materials design platform for molten salt technologies using novel high-throughput methods coupled to data analytics. The main objectives is to predict a FeCrMnNi alloy compositional space with better corrosion resistance than stainless steel 316 and identify new molten salt corrosion mechanisms. The project demonstrates the feasibility to use high-throughput methods coupled to data analytics to accelerate alloy design for extreme environments applications. Using a trained and tested machine learning (ML) model, 2000 FeCrMnNi alloy corrosion rate in molten chloride salts were predicted and a compositional field with corrosion rate lower than 316 stainless steel was identified. The ML model interpretability unveiled multiple features of importance in the model prediction. Some features were expected to be of relative significance, such as work function, surface energy and alloy electronegativity, and the ML model interpretability analysis confirmed those. On the other hand, the most important feature is the diffusion coefficient of Ni in the bulk alloy which indicates that a surface diffusion mechanism plays an important role in the overall corrosion mechanism in molten salts.
As electric vehicle (EV) adoption rises globally, concerns about the impact on aging electrical grids grow, particularly regarding the charging behavior of EV drivers. This study analyzes real-world driving and charging data from Ford battery electric vehicles (BEVs) collected between 2018 and 2019 to develop interpretable models that characterize charging behavior and quantify influencing factors. Prior research has relied on assumptions regarding driver behavior, often overlooking actual charging patterns. By employing generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), this work offers insights into how various elements, such as next trip distance and state of charge (SOC), influence charging decisions. The dataset comprises over three million park-trip pairs from 1,997 vehicles, revealing that features related to driving behavior significantly dictate charging behavior, while infrastructure and regional factors have lesser impacts. The findings suggest that existing simulation models may oversimplify EV charging behavior assumptions. This work utilizes real-world EV driving and charging data to train interpretable models that describe charging behavior and quantify the factors most associated with how drivers use charging infrastructure. This research underscores the need for interpretable, data-driven methodologies to inform future EV infrastructure planning and grid management.
This work develops a methodology for sensor placement and dynamic sensor scheduling decisions for digital twins. The digital twin data assimilation is posed as a classification problem, and predictive models are used to train optimal classification trees that represent the map from observed data to estimated digital twin states. In addition to providing a rapid digital twin updating capability, the resulting classification trees yield an interpretable mathematical representation that can be queried to inform sensor placement and sensor scheduling decisions. The proposed approach is demonstrated for a structural digital twin of a 12 ft wingspan unmanned aerial vehicle. Offline, training data are generated by simulating scenarios using predictive reduced-order models of the vehicle in a range of structural states. Furthermore, these training data can be further augmented using experimental or other historical data. In operation, the trained classifier is applied to observational data from the physical vehicle, enabling rapid adaptation of the digital twin in response to changes in structural health. Within this context, we study the performance of the optimal tree classifiers and demonstrate how they enable explainable structural assessments from sparse sensor measurements and also inform optimal sensor placement.
WEST L-mode plasmas with dominant electron heating and no core torque source have observed improvements in confinement during boron (B) powder injection. These results are reminiscent of previous powder injection experiments on other devices and gaseous impurity seeding experiments on WEST. During powder injection, the stored energy increased up to 25% due to enhanced ion and electron heat and particle confinement. The improvements in confinement were not indicative of an L-H transition. To identify the dominant mechanisms and the causality chain behind these improvements in confinement, we employ interpretative modeling using METIS, predictive integrated modeling using a high-fidelity plasma simulator (HFPS), and stand-alone gyrokinetic simulations using quasi-linear gyrokinetic code. Interpretative modeling with METIS allowed for the estimation of missing data while maintaining good overall consistency with experiment. These results provided the initial conditions for fully predictive flux driven simulations using the HFPS. From these simulations, quasi-linear gyrokinetic analysis was performed at ρ = 0.5 and ρ = 0.65. Collisionality was found to be a strong candidate for the turbulence suppression mechanism at ρ = 0.5, while a combination of collisionality and the T e /T i ratio was found to be the likely mechanism at ρ = 0.65. The results additionally suggested that increased Z eff (through main ion dilution) could play a role in the improved confinement, but this could not be confirmed due to a lack of experimental measurements. The modeling framework established here can now be used to evaluate and exploit a variety of future powder injection experiments.
Point-of-care ultrasound imaging is a critical tool for patient triage during trauma for diagnosing injuries and prioritizing limited medical evacuation resources. Specifically, an eFAST exam evaluates if there are free fluids in the chest or abdomen but this is only possible if ultrasound scans can be accurately interpreted, a challenge in the pre-hospital setting. In this effort, we evaluated the use of artificial intelligent eFAST image interpretation models. Widely used deep learning model architectures were evaluated as well as Bayesian models optimized for six different diagnostic models: pneumothorax (i) B- or (ii) M-mode, hemothorax (iii) B- or (iv) M-mode, (v) pelvic or bladder abdominal hemorrhage and (vi) right upper quadrant abdominal hemorrhage. Models were trained using images captured in 27 swine. Using a leave-one-subject-out training approach, the MobileNetV2 and DarkNet53 models surpassed 85% accuracy for each M-mode scan site. The different B-mode models performed worse with accuracies between 68% and 74% except for the pelvic hemorrhage model, which only reached 62% accuracy for all model architectures. These results highlight which eFAST scan sites can be easily automated with image interpretation models, while other scan sites, such as the bladder hemorrhage model, will require more robust model development or data augmentation to improve performance. With these additional improvements, the skill threshold for ultrasound-based triage can be reduced, thus expanding its utility in the pre-hospital setting.
Introduction: Military working dogs (MWDs) are essential for military operations in a wide range of missions. With this pivotal role, MWDs can become casualties requiring specialized veterinary care that may not always be available far forward on the battlefield. Some injuries such as pneumothorax, hemothorax, or abdominal hemorrhage can be diagnosed using point of care ultrasound (POCUS) such as the Global FAST® exam. This presents a unique opportunity for artificial intelligence (AI) to aid in the interpretation of ultrasound images. In this article, deep learning classification neural networks were developed for POCUS assessment in MWDs. Methods: Images were collected in five MWDs under general anesthesia or deep sedation for all scan points in the Global FAST® exam. For representative injuries, a cadaver model was used from which positive and negative injury images were captured. A total of 327 ultrasound clips were captured and split across scan points for training three different AI network architectures: MobileNetV2, DarkNet-19, and ShrapML. Gradient class activation mapping (GradCAM) overlays were generated for representative images to better explain AI predictions. Results: Performance of AI models reached over 82% accuracy for all scan points. The model with the highest performance was trained with the MobileNetV2 network for the cystocolic scan point achieving 99.8% accuracy. Across all trained networks the diaphragmatic hepatorenal scan point had the best overall performance. However, GradCAM overlays showed that the models with highest accuracy, like MobileNetV2, were not always identifying relevant features. Conversely, the GradCAM heatmaps for ShrapML show general agreement with regions most indicative of fluid accumulation. Discussion: Overall, the AI models developed can automate POCUS predictions in MWDs. Preliminarily, ShrapML had the strongest performance and prediction rate paired with accurately tracking fluid accumulation sites, making it the most suitable option for eventual real-time deployment with ultrasound systems. Further integration of this technology with imaging technologies will expand use of POCUS-based triage of MWDs.
The weathering of sedimentary rocks in high-elevation catchments influences freshwater quality and the global carbon cycle. While individual biogeochemical mechanisms involved in this process are relatively well understood, quantifying their contributions to solute export and carbon fluxes under natural, transient conditions remains challenging. Here, we implement a numerical multidimensional and multiphase model to simulate coupled hydrological and biogeochemical processes in a shale-underlain, snow-dominated hillslope in the Rocky Mountains, Colorado. The model captures the dynamic interplay between soil respiration, mineral weathering, and climate-driven hydrological forcing, reproducing observed soil CO 2 dynamics, groundwater chemistry, and subsurface flow. Our results reveal that seasonal snowmelt enhances carbonate weathering by promoting the infiltration of CO 2 -rich water to depth, while pyrite oxidation is primarily sensitive to low water saturation that facilitates O 2 diffusion through the regolith. Topography modulates the spatial distribution of shale weathering, as steeper slopes enhance lateral drainage, favoring the delivery of reactants to greater depths. While shale weathering at our site acts as a transient carbon sink, with silicates and carbonates buffering acidity and promoting atmospheric CO 2 consumption (1% of soil-derived CO 2 ), the exported dissolved inorganic carbon is predominantly geogenic (∼73%). Consequently, when accounting for long-term marine carbonate precipitation. The current weathering regime represents a net source of carbon to the atmosphere. The oxidation of pyrite and petrogenic organic carbon together release approximately 0.9 mol·m −2 ·yr −1 of CO 2 . Our findings highlight the role of topography, hydroclimate, and the coupling between acid-base reactions in shaping the carbon balance and the solute exports in mountainous critical zones.
Abstract Flows in the atmospheric boundary layer are turbulent, characterized by a large Reynolds number, the existence of a roughness sublayer and the absence of a well-defined viscous layer. Exchanges with the surface are therefore dominated by turbulent fluxes. In numerical models for atmospheric flows, turbulent fluxes must be specified at the surface; however, surface fluxes are not known a priori and therefore must be parametrized. Atmospheric flow models, including global circulation, limited area models, and large-eddy simulation, employ Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) to parametrize surface fluxes. The MOST approach is a semi-empirical formulation that accounts for atmospheric stability effects through universal stability functions. The stability functions are determined based on limited observations using simple regression as a function of the non-dimensional stability parameter representing a ratio of distance from the surface and the Obukhov length scale (Obukhov in Trudy Inst Theor Geofiz AN SSSR 1:95–115, 1946), $$z/L$$ z / L . However, simple regression cannot capture the relationship between governing parameters and surface-layer structure under the wide range of conditions to which MOST is commonly applied. We therefore develop, train, and test two machine-learning models, an artificial neural network (ANN) and random forest (RF), to estimate surface fluxes of momentum, sensible heat, and moisture based on surface and near-surface observations. To train and test these machine-learning algorithms, we use several years of observations from the Cabauw mast in the Netherlands and from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Field Research Division tower in Idaho. The RF and ANN models outperform MOST. Even when we train the RF and ANN on one set of data and apply them to the second set, they provide more accurate estimates of all of the fluxes compared to MOST. Estimates of sensible heat and moisture fluxes are significantly improved, and model interpretability techniques highlight the logical physical relationships we expect in surface-layer processes.
Hemorrhage is the leading cause of preventable death in both civilian and military medicine. Junctional hemorrhages are especially difficult to manage since traditional tourniquet placement is often not possible. Ultrasound can be used to visualize and guide the caretaker to apply pressure at physiological pressure points to stop hemorrhage. However, this process is technically challenging, requiring the vessel to be properly positioned over rigid boney surfaces and applying sufficient pressure to maintain proper occlusion. As a first step toward automating this life-saving intervention, we demonstrate an artificial intelligence algorithm that classifies a vessel as patent or occluded, which can guide a user to apply the appropriate pressure required to stop flow. Neural network models were trained using images captured from a custom tissue-mimicking phantom and an ex vivo swine model of the inguinal region, as pressure was applied using an ultrasound probe with and without color Doppler overlays. Using these images, we developed an image classification algorithm suitable for the determination of patency or occlusion in an ultrasound image containing color Doppler overlay. Separate AI models for both test platforms were able to accurately detect occlusion status in test-image sets to more than 93% accuracy. In conclusion, this methodology can be utilized for guiding and monitoring proper vessel occlusion, which, when combined with automated actuation and other AI models, can allow for automated junctional tourniquet application.
Glass transition temperature (T g ) is important for understanding the physical and mechanical properties of a polymer material because it relates to the thermal energy required to transition between a hard glassy state and a soft rubbery one. Over the years, various models have been developed for predicting this thermal property from molecular structure to aid in designing novel polymers in selected classes. This work builds on those efforts by utilizing both machine learning (ML) and quantum chemistry (QC) techniques to develop models that can predict T g values from the molecular structure under different data availability scenarios and for a wide variety of polymer types. For the ML model, a graph convolutional network (GCN) was used to map topological polymer features; this model was trained against a dataset of more than 7500 T g values and resulted in a root mean square error (RMSE) of 38.1 °C. The QC-based regression model was trained on 83 T g values and produced an RMSE of 34.5 °C. In conclusion, this work demonstrated that while both model techniques produce accurate predictions and are suitable for different data availability scenarios, the QC-based regression model offered a more interpretable model framework with significantly less training data.
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Abstract The pre-thermal quench (pre-TQ) dynamics of a pure deuterium ( D 2 ) shattered pellet injection (SPI) into a 3 MA / 7 MJ JET H-mode plasma is studied via 3D non-linear MHD modelling with the JOREK code. The interpretative modelling captures the overall evolution of the measured density and radiated power. The simulations also identify the importance of the drifts of ablation plasmoids towards the tokamak low field side (LFS) and the impurities in the background plasma in fragment penetration, assimilation, radiative cooling and MHD activity in D 2 SPI experiments. It is found that plasmoid drifts lead to an about 70% reduction of the central line-integrated density (compared to a simulation without drifts) in the JET D 2 SPI discharge considered. Impurities that pre-exist before the SPI as well as those from possible impurity influxes related to the SPI are shown to dominate the radiation in the considered discharge. With inputs from JOREK simulations, modelling with the Lagrangian particle-based pellet code PELOTON reproduces the deviation of the SPI fragments in the direction of the major radius as observed by the fast camera. This confirms the role of rocket effects and plasmoid drifts in the considered discharge and reinforces the validity of the JOREK modelling. The limited core density rise due to plasmoid drifts and the strong radiative cooling and MHD activity with impurities (depending on their species and concentration) could limit the effectiveness of LFS D 2 SPI in runaway electron avoidance and are worth considering in the design of the ITER disruption mitigation system.
Complex deep learning models trained on very large datasets have become key enabling tools for current research in natural language processing and computer vision. By providing pre-trained models that can be fine-tuned for specific applications, they enable researchers to create accurate models with minimal effort and computational resources. Large scale genomics deep learning models come in two flavors: the first are large language models of DNA sequences trained in a self-supervised fashion, similar to the corresponding natural language models; the second are supervised learning models that leverage large scale genomics datasets from ENCODE and other sources. We argue that these models are the equivalent of foundation models in natural language processing in their utility, as they encode within them chromatin state in its different aspects, providing useful representations that allow quick deployment of accurate models of gene regulation. We demonstrate this premise by leveraging the recently created Sei model to develop simple, interpretable models of intron retention, and demonstrate their advantage over models based on the DNA language model DNABERT-2. Our work also demonstrates the impact of chromatin state on the regulation of intron retention. Using representations learned by Sei, our model is able to discover the involvement of transcription factors and chromatin marks in regulating intron retention, providing better accuracy than a recently published custom model developed for this purpose.
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