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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

The Influence of Internal Model Variability in GEOS-5 on Interhemispheric CO2 Exchange

An ensemble of eight atmospheric CO2 simulations was completed employing the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Earth Observation System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) for the years 2000-2001, each with initial meteorological conditions corresponding to different days in January 2000 to examine internal model variability. Globally, the model runs show similar concentrations of CO2 for the two years, but in regions of high CO2 concentrations due to fossil fuel emissions, large differences among different model simulations appear. The phasing and amplitude of the CO2 cycle at Northern Hemisphere locations in all of the ensemble members is similar to that of surface observations. In several southern hemisphere locations, however, some of the GEOS-5 model CO2 cycles are out of phase by as much as four months, and large variations occur between the ensemble members. This result indicates that there is large sensitivity to transport in these regions. The differences vary by latitude-the most extreme differences in the Tropics and the least at the South Pole. Examples of these differences among the ensemble members with regard to CO2 uptake and respiration of the terrestrial biosphere and CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel emissions are shown at Cape Grim, Tasmania. Integration-based flow analysis of the atmospheric circulation in the model runs shows widely varying paths of flow into the Tasmania region among the models including sources from North America, South America, South Africa, South Asia and Indonesia. These results suggest that interhemispheric transport can be strongly influenced by internal model variability.

Allen, Melissa↗
NASA NTRS1989

Internal state variable approach for predicting stiffness reductions in fibrous laminated composites with matrix cracks

A mathematical model utilizing the internal state variable concept is proposed for predicting the upper bound of the reduced axial stiffnesses in cross-ply laminates with matrix cracks. The axial crack opening displacement is explicitly expressed in terms of the observable axial strain and the undamaged material properties. A crack parameter representing the effect of matrix cracks on the observable axial Young's modulus is calculated for glass/epoxy and graphite/epoxy material systems. The results show that the matrix crack opening displacement and the effective Young's modulus depend not on the crack length, but on its ratio to the crack spacing.

Lee, Jong-Won↗
NASA NTRS2018

Multidecadal Changes in Lower Stratospheric Ozone: Variability Vs. Trends

As upper stratospheric ozone appears to be recovering as a result of decreasing chlorine loading following the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments and in agreement with model projections, several recent studies report an apparent decline of ozone concentrations in the lower stratosphere in the last two decades, particularly in the extratropics. Our previous work as well as at least two other studies provide evidence that this decline results from transport changes rather than an intensification of chemical depletion. It remains unclear whether these changes represent long-term internal variability or are a consequence of a climate forcing. Here we perform free-running ensembles of the recent past (1980-2016) using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) at the cubed sphere C180 (approximately half degree) resolution. Two suites of 10-member ensembles are performed, one in which observed sea surface temperature (SSTs) are fully prescribed, and the other in which the linear SST trend over the recent past is removed so as to only retain internal variability. We evaluate the trends in both ozone as well as two idealized tracers with prescribed uniform loss that are used to isolate the role of transport from chemistry and emissions. Probability-distribution-functions of the trends in both ozone and idealized tracers are compared among ensemble members and with observed trends in order to evaluate the likelihood of recent observed declines in lower stratospheric ozone, relative to large internal variability. Moreover, comparisons among simulations with and without imposed SST trends indicate the extent to which dynamically-driven ozone trends reflect forced trends or internal variability in lower stratospheric dynamics.

Wargan, Krzysztof↗
NASA NTRS2020

Fingerprints of External Forcing Agents on Sahel Rainfall: Aerosols, Greenhouse Gases, and Model-Observation Discrepancies

Over the 20th and 21st centuries, both anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases and changes in anthropogenic aerosols have affected rainfall in the Sahel. Using multiple characteristics of Sahel precipitation, we construct a multivariate fingerprint that allows us to distinguish between the model-predicted responses to greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. Models project the emergence of a detectable signal of aerosol forcing in the middle of the 20th century and a detectable signal of greenhouse gas forcing at the beginning of the 21st. However, the signals of both aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing in observations emerge earlier and are stronger than in the models, far stronger in the case of aerosols. The similarity between the response to aerosol forcing and the leading mode of internal variability makes it difficult to attribute this model-observation discrepancy to errors in the forcing, errors in the forced response, model inability to capture the amplitude of internal variability, or some combination of these. For greenhouse gases, however, the forced response is distinct from internal variability as estimated by models, and the observations are largely commensurate with the model projections.

Sahel↗
NASA NTRS1990

A viscoplastic model with application to LiF-22 percent CaF2 hypereutectic salt

A viscoplastic model for class M (metal-like behavior) materials is presented. One novel feature is its use of internal variables to change the stress exponent of creep (where n is approximately = 5) to that of natural creep (where n = 3), in accordance with experimental observations. Another feature is the introduction of a coupling in the evolution equations of the kinematic and isotropic internal variables, making thermal recovery of the kinematic variable implicit. These features enable the viscoplastic model to reduce to that of steady-state creep in closed form. In addition, the hardening parameters associated with the two internal state variables (one scalar-valued, the other tensor-valued) are considered to be functions of state, instead of being taken as constant-valued. This feature enables each internal variable to represent a much wider spectrum of internal states for the material. The model is applied to a LiF-22 percent CaF2 hypereutectic salt, which is being considered as a thermal energy storage material for space-based solar dynamic power systems.

Freed, A. D.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Future Nuisance Flooding in Norfolk, VA, From Astronomical Tides and Annual to Decadal Internal Climate Variability

Abstract Increasing sea level rise will lead to more instances of nuisance flooding along the Virginia coastline in the coming decades, causing road closures and deteriorating infrastructure. These minor flood events can be caused by astronomical tides alone, in addition to internal climate variability on annual to decadal timescales. An assessment of nuisance flooding from these two effects is presented up until the year2050 for Norfolk, Virginia. The analysis of water levels indicates that nuisance flooding from tides alone in conjunction with a medium-high sea level scenario will result in flooding beginning in 2030 with frequency increasing thereafter. The addition of climate variability, by use of an empirical mode decomposition, leads to a substantial increase of flooding relative to the tides-alone analysis and shows flood events beginning as soon as 2020. High tides in the future will produce nuisance flooding without the need of other drivers such as coastal storms.

Burgos, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.

Variability↗
NASA NTRS1995

A kinematically driven anisotropic viscoelastic constitutive model applied to tires

Aircraft tires are composite structures manufactured with viscoelastic materials such as carbon black filled rubber and nylon cords. When loaded they experience large deflections and moderately large strains. Detailed structural models of tires require the use of either nonlinear shell or nonlinear three dimensional solid finite elements. Computational predictions of the dynamic response of tires must consider the composite viscoelastic material behavior in a realistic fashion. We describe a modification to a nonlinear anisotropic shell finite element so it can be used to model viscoelastic stresses during general deformations. The model is developed by introducing internal variables of the type used to model elastic strain energy. The internal variables are strains, curvatures, and transverse shear angles which are in a one-to-one correspondence with the generalized coordinates used to model the elastic strain energy for nonlinear response. A difference-relaxation equation is used to relate changes in the observable strain field to changes in the internal strain field. The internal stress state is introduced into the equilibrium equations by converting it to nodal loads associated with the element's displacement degrees of freedom. In this form the tangent matrix in the Newton-Raphson solution algorithm is not modified from its form for the nonlinear statics problem. Only the gradient vector is modified and the modification is not computationally costly. The existing finite element model for the Space Shuttle nose gear tire is used to provide examples of the algorithm. In the first example, the tire's rim is displaced at a constant rate up to a fixed value. In the second example, the tire's rim is enforced to follow a saw tooth load and unload curve to generate hysteresis loops.

Johnson, Arthur R.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Thermodynamically consistent constitutive equations for nonisothermal large strain, elasto-plastic, creep behavior

The paper is concerned with the development of constitutive relations for large nonisothermal elastic-viscoplastic deformations for metals. The kinematics of elastic-plastic deformation, valid for finite strains and rotations, is presented. The resulting elastic-plastic uncoupled equations for the deformation rate combined with use of the incremental elasticity law permits a precise and purely deductive development of elastic-viscoplastic theory. It is shown that a phenomenological thermodynamic theory in which the elastic deformation and the temperature are state variables, including few internal variables, can be utilized to construct elastic-viscoplastic constitutive equations, which are appropriate for metals. The limiting case of inviscid plasticity is examined.

Riff, R.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Human and Natural Influences on the Changing Thermal Structure of the Atmosphere

Since the late 1970s, satellite-based instruments have monitored global changes in atmospheric temperature. These measurements reveal multidecadal tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, punctuated by short-term volcanic signals of reverse sign. Similar long- and short-term temperature signals occur in model simulations driven by human-caused changes in atmospheric composition and natural variations in volcanic aerosols. Most previous comparisons of modeled and observed atmospheric temperature changes have used results from individual models and individual observational records. In contrast, we rely on a large multimodel archive and multiple observational datasets. We show that a human-caused latitude/altitude pattern of atmospheric temperature change can be identified with high statistical confidence in satellite data. Results are robust to current uncertainties in models and observations. Virtually all previous research in this area has attempted to discriminate an anthropogenic signal from internal variability. Here, we present evidence that a human-caused signal can also be identified relative to the larger "total" natural variability arising from sources internal to the climate system, solar irradiance changes, and volcanic forcing. Consistent signal identification occurs because both internal and total natural variability (as simulated by state-of-the-art models) cannot produce sustained global-scale tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. Our results provide clear evidence for a discernible human influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere.

Santer, Benjamin D.↗
NASA NTRS1996

A viscoelastic higher-order beam finite element

A viscoelastic internal variable constitutive theory is applied to a higher-order elastic beam theory and finite element formulation. The behavior of the viscous material in the beam is approximately modeled as a Maxwell solid. The finite element formulation requires additional sets of nodal variables for each relaxation time constant needed by the Maxwell solid. Recent developments in modeling viscoelastic material behavior with strain variables that are conjugate to the elastic strain measures are combined with advances in modeling through-the-thickness stresses and strains in thick beams. The result is a viscous thick-beam finite element that possesses superior characteristics for transient analysis since its nodal viscous forces are not linearly dependent an the nodal velocities, which is the case when damping matrices are used. Instead, the nodal viscous forces are directly dependent on the material's relaxation spectrum and the history of the nodal variables through a differential form of the constitutive law for a Maxwell solid. The thick beam quasistatic analysis is explored herein as a first step towards developing more complex viscoelastic models for thick plates and shells, and for dynamic analyses. The internal variable constitutive theory is derived directly from the Boltzmann superposition theorem. The mechanical strains and the conjugate internal strains are shown to be related through a system of first-order, ordinary differential equations. The total time-dependent stress is the superposition of its elastic and viscous components. Equations of motion for the solid are derived from the virtual work principle using the total time-dependent stress. Numerical examples for the problems of relaxation, creep, and cyclic creep are carried out for a beam made from an orthotropic Maxwell solid.

Johnson, Arthur R.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.

Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMI↗
NASA NTRS1989

Analysis of damage in MMC components using an internal state variable model

A metal-matrix composite (MMC) model was developed which includes the concept of damage evolution. The evolution of damage is assumed to be governed by a Kachanov-type equation. This viscoplastic damage model was implemented in the finite element code, MARC. Both uniaxial (creep) and multiaxial (an internally pressurized thick-walled cylinder) problems were analyzed using this implementation. Some preliminary results are presented which consider monotonic (constant) loadings. The creep curves including damage for four fiber orientations are presented. As expected, the minimum creep occurs when load is applied in a direction parallel to the fibers. The tangential strains at the inner radius of a thick-walled MMC-cylinder for four fiber orientations are shown with damage included. The cylinder exhibits the maximum creep resistance when the fibers are oriented in the circumferential direction, perpendicular to the axis of the cylinder. Time-to-failure for the thick-walled cylinder for the same fiber orientation angles is also shown. As expected, the life of the cylinder can be increased by orientating the fibers in the circumferential direction, perpendicular to the axis of the cylinder. The results, although qualitative, indicate that significant benefits in creep-resistance and service life can be achieved by using MMC materials as structural materials for high-temperature design.

Arya, V. K.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reassessing Post-Eruption Precipitation Anomalies in the Context of Natural Variability

Several studies have reported anomalous precipitation in the years that follow large volcanic eruptions. Here we assess precipitation anomalies in post-eruption years according to their rarity in non-volcanic periods. Using global simulations of climate over the last millennium, we reevaluate the response of precipitation to volcanic aerosols in terms of novel metrics. In this approach, the magnitude of the precipitation response is contextualized through comparisons to internal variability. We also examine the connections between global and regional-scale precipitation anomalies. Finally, we assess to what extent a unique ‘fingerprint’ of eruptions can be seen in the observational precipitation record in spite of concurrent internal variability.

volcanic eruptions↗
NASA NTRS1985

Constitutive equations of ageing polymeric materials

The constitutive equation for the relaxation behavior of time-dependent, chemically unstable materials developed by Valanis and Peng (1983), which used the irreversible thermodynamics of internal variables in Eyring's absolute reaction theory and yielded a theoretical expression for the effect of chemical crosslink density on the relaxation rate, is presently applied to the creep behavior of a network polymer which is undergoing a scission process. In particular, two equations are derived which may for the first time show the relations between mechanical models and internal variables in the creep expressions, using a three-element model with a Maxwell element.

Peng, S. T. J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A survey of unified constitutive theories

The state of the art of time temperature dependent elastic viscoplastic constitutive theories which are based on the unified approach werre assessed. This class of constitutive theories is characterized by the use of kinetic equations and internal variables with appropriate evolutionary equations for treating all aspects of inelastic deformation including plasticity, creep, and stress relaxation. More than 10 such unified theories which are shown to satisfy the uniqueness and stability criteria imposed by Drucker's postulate and Ponter's inequalities are identified. The theories are compared for the types of flow law, kinetic equation, evolutionary equation of the internal variables, and treatment of temperature dependence. The similarities and differences of these theories are outlined in terms of mathematical formulations and illustrated by comparisons of theoretical calculations with experimental results which include monotonic stress-strain curves, cyclic hysteresis loops, creep and stress relaxation rates, and thermomechanical loops. Numerical methods used for integrating these stiff time temperature dependent constitutive equations are reviewed.

Chan, K. S.↗
NASA NTRS1956

Effect of Several Design Variables on Internal Performance of Convergent-plug Exhaust Nozzles

Numerous experiments were conducted to determine factors which affect the internal performance of convergent-plug exhaust nozzles. The results of these experiments, which include effects of such things as plug shape, nozzle inlet Mach number, and outer-shell characteristics, provide a basis for optimum desifn from the standpoint of weight and size. The results also show performance penalties which can result when the nozzle is too small.

Krull, H George↗