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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A Data-Driven Algorithm for Enabling Delay Tolerance in Resilient Microgrid Controls Using Dynamic Mode Decomposition

The increased implementation of smart grid technologies in the power distribution grid presents unique opportunities that enable resiliency, but also brings challenges motivating needs for novel solutions and mitigation techniques. The bi-directional power and data flow allow for the grid to operate with increased resiliency, which is the ability to avoid discontinuity of service to end-use loads during extreme events. However, in applications where control of the distribution grid or microgrid relies on communication networks, the degradation of communication systems in the form of loss or high latency can cause maloperation and result in loss of end-use loads. Here this paper presents a novel framework to enable delay tolerance of centralized microgrid control schemes to mitigate communication system latency impacts and guarantee successful control action. We demonstrate the delay tolerance on a control scheme that operates a battery energy storage system (BESS) to offset the sudden loss of generation and maintain system frequency. During periods of severely degraded communication system performance, the proposed delay-tolerant algorithm compensates for the latency by utilizing a data-driven model generated at the device level using dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) to determine the performance of the communications. The DMD technique predicts the system’s frequency using device-level terminal measurements and provides updated control signals. The HELICS cosimulation platform evaluates the cyber-physical interaction of the power system model in GridLAB-D, the centralized control agent in Python, and the discrete network model in NS-3. The framework is tested and validated on the IEEE-123 node system modified to represent a networked remote microgrid model, and the results show an improvement in the dynamic performance

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

ToPolyAgent: AI agents for coarse-grained bead-spring topological polymer simulations

We introduce ToPolyAgent, a multi-agent AI framework for performing coarse-grained molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of topological polymers through natural language instructions. By integrating large language models (LLMs) with domain-specific computational tools, ToPolyAgent supports both interactive and autonomous simulation workflows across diverse polymer architectures, including linear, ring, brush, and star polymers, as well as dendrimers. The system consists of four LLM-powered agents: a Config Agent for generating initial polymer–solvent configurations, a Simulation Agent for executing LAMMPS-based MD simulations and conformational analyses, a Report Agent for compiling markdown reports, and a Workflow Agent for streamlined autonomous operations. Interactive mode incorporates user feedback loops for iterative refinements, while autonomous mode enables end-to-end task execution from detailed prompts. We demonstrate ToPolyAgent's versatility through case studies involving diverse polymer architectures under varying solvent conditions, thermostats, and simulation lengths. Furthermore, we highlight its potential as a research assistant by directing it to investigate the effect of interaction parameters on the linear polymer conformation, and the influence of grafting density on the persistence length of the brush polymer. By coupling natural language interfaces with rigorous simulation tools, ToPolyAgent lowers barriers to complex computational workflows and advances AI-driven materials discovery in polymer science. It lays the foundation for autonomous and extensible multi-agent scientific research ecosystems.

Ding, Lijie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing Operational Safety via Agentic Dialogue Hazard Identification Analysis

Operational safety in high-stakes domains such as industrial process control, autonomous, and safety-critical systems demand reliable hazard identification. While large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in automating safety analysis tasks, single-turn, monolithic inference is brittle: it lacks the self-correction, deliberation, and contextual refinement that safety engineers apply iteratively. In this paper, we introduce HAZDIAL, a framework that investigates whether structured agentic dialogue (multi-agent, multi-turn interactions) improves the quality of NLP-based hazard identification over single-pass baselines. We systematically compare two dialogue modalities: adversarial debate and constructive discussion, and propose an genetic algorithm-based agentic interaction optimization. We evaluate all configurations against a curated golden dataset using standard classification metrics (accuracy, precision, recall, F1) and a novel dialogue metrics. This work advances the intersection of dialogue systems, multi-agent reasoning, and AI safety, providing empirical evidence for dialogue-driven hazard analysis.

Das, Sanjay [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000542591915)↗
DOE OSTI2025

EVI-EnSitePy (Electric Vehicle Infrastructure – Energy Estimation and Site Optimization Tool in Python) [EVI-X Modeling Suite] [SWR-25-07]

EVI-EnSitePy is a comprehensive agent-based tool designed for the analysis and design of high-power charging sites, encompassing a wide array of site agents including Electric Vehicles (EVs), chargers, energy storage units (ESS), renewable energy resources (DER), and loads. This versatile tool offers diverse functionalities and a modular modeling approach, allowing detailed configuration of agents based on power ratings, port numbers, energy capacities, demand requirements, charger interfaces, and flexibility to customize the tool for project specific goals. By simulating agent interactions and employing various metrics, EVI-EnSitePy enables the assessment of site performance, exploration of energy management systems (EMS), and implementation of innovative EV charging policies. Utilizing EV charge schedules and arrival states, the tool performs thorough charging site simulations, with outputs consisting of agent and site-level power profiles and statistical metrics. Employing a tree graph structure, EVI-EnSitePy supports nested site structures and power distribution modeling. The tool's ability to generate charging schedules deterministically or via stochastic analysis further enhances its versatility. Through its features and capabilities, EVI-EnSitePy offers a powerful platform for informed decision-making in the realm of high-power charging site design and operation.

Jackson, Derek [National Renewable Energy Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2023

Resilient Design of Continuous-time Distributed Optimization Algorithm in the Presence of Cyber-attacks

This paper presents a continuous-time resilient distributed optimization algorithm based on competitive interaction design method on connected graphs in the presence of adversaries. Here, the competitive interaction method allows us to design a network that protects the multi-agent systems from adversaries without requiring high network connectivity. In addition, the proposed algorithm does not require the global information about the number of adversaries. First, we show that the proposed distributed algorithm solves the resilient distributed optimization problem with no attack on the communication links. Second, we show that the proposed continuous-time distributed optimization algorithm on connected graphs converges to the small neighborhood of the optimal solution in the presence of cyber-attacks onto the communication channel. Simulations are presented to illustrate our theoretical results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate modeling of Cellular-Potts agent-based models as a segmentation task using the U-Net neural network architecture

The Cellular-Potts model is a powerful and ubiquitous framework for developing computational models for simulating complex multicellular biological systems. Cellular-Potts models (CPMs) are often computationally expensive due to the explicit modeling of interactions among large numbers of individual model agents and diffusive fields described by partial differential equations (PDEs). In this work, we develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) surrogate model using a U-Net architecture that accounts for periodic boundary conditions. We use this model to accelerate the evaluation of a mechanistic CPM previously used to investigate in vitro vasculogenesis. The surrogate model was trained to predict 100 computational steps ahead (Monte-Carlo steps, MCS), accelerating simulation evaluations by a factor of 562 times compared to single-core CPM code execution on CPU. Over short timescales of up to 3 recursive evaluations, or 300 MCS, our model captures the emergent behaviors demonstrated by the original Cellular-Potts model such as vessel sprouting, extension and anastomosis, and contraction of vascular lacunae. This approach demonstrates the potential for deep learning to serve as a step toward efficient surrogate models for CPM simulations, enabling faster evaluation of computationally expensive CPM simulations of biological processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Generating Mixed Patterns of Residential Segregation: An Evolutionary Approach

The Schelling model of residential segregation has demonstrated that even the slightest preference for neighbors of the same race can be amplified into community-wide segregation. However, these models are unable to simulate mixed, coexisting patterns of segregation and integration, which have been seen to exist in cities. Using evolutionary model discovery we demonstrate how including social factors beyond racial bias when modeling relocation behavior enables the emergence of strongly mixed patterns. Our results indicate that the emergence of mixed patterns is better explained by multiple factors influencing the decision to relocate; the most important being the interaction of nonlinear, rapidly diminishing racial bias with a recent, historical tendency to move. Additionally, preference for less isolated neighborhoods or preference for neighborhoods with longer residing neighbors may produce weaker mixed patterns. Finally, this work highlights the importance of exploring the influence of multiple hypothesized factors of decision making, and their interactions, within agent rules, when studying emergent outcomes generated by agent-based models of complex social systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to an Agent-Based Model of Pantoea

Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a powerful simulation technique which describes a complex dynamic system based on its interacting constituent entities. While the flexibility of ABM enables broad application, the complexity of real-world models demands intensive computing resources and computational time; however, a metamodel may be constructed to gain insight at less computational expense. Here, we developed a model in NetLogo to describe the growth of a microbial population consisting of Pantoea . We applied 13 parameters that defined the model and actively changed seven of the parameters to modulate the evolution of the population curve in response to these changes. We efficiently performed more than 3,000 simulations using a Python wrapper, NL4Py . Upon evaluation of the correlation between the active parameters and outputs by random forest regression, we found that the parameters which define the depth of medium and glucose concentration affect the population curves significantly. Subsequently, we constructed a metamodel, a dense neural network, to predict the simulation outputs from the active parameters and found that it achieves high prediction accuracy, reaching an R 2 coefficient of determination value up to 0.92. Our approach of using a combination of ABM with random forest regression and neural network reduces the number of required ABM simulations. The simplified and refined metamodels may provide insights into the complex dynamic system before their transition to more sophisticated models that run on high-performance computing systems. The ultimate goal is to build a bridge between simulation and experiment, allowing model validation by comparing the simulated data to experimental data in microbiology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A transfer learning approach to energy-efficient control of small and medium-sized commercial buildings

Model-free reinforcement learning (RL) provides a data-driven and adaptive approach to optimize building energy use while satisfying occupant comfort. This powerful tool does not need any prior knowledge about the environment and system it is optimizing and can adapt its policy based on the changes in captures. Like any other data-driven tool, it faces high training costs due to the extensive agent-environment interactions required to capture long-term building dynamics and user comfort. Transfer learning, particularly policy distillation, offers a promising way to accelerate training by leveraging pretrained RL agents in different building and system types. Here, this study investigates online student distillation, in which the student model updates its neural network weights using outputs from teacher models. The work introduces a student distillation strategy designed for efficient knowledge transfer, along with a teacher selection method that ensures high-quality guidance. The approach is validated using a highly calibrated whole building energy model for a small/medium commercial building test facility. Results show substantial reductions in training time and data requirements while surpassing the performance of ASHRAE Guideline 36, an advanced rule-based control strategy. The distilled RL model required 45% less data and achieved 20% higher cumulative rewards than a state-of-the-art RL model, with faster convergence and lower energy consumption. These outcomes demonstrate that effective transfer learning enables a scalable and data-efficient energy management solution for commercial buildings.

ASHRAE guideline 36↗
DOE OSTI2025

Entanglement engineering of optomechanical systems by reinforcement learning

Entanglement is fundamental to quantum information science and technology, yet controlling and manipulating entanglement—so-called entanglement engineering—for arbitrary quantum systems remains a formidable challenge. There are two difficulties: the fragility of quantum entanglement and its experimental characterization. We develop a model-free deep reinforcement-learning (RL) approach to entanglement engineering, in which feedback control together with weak continuous measurement and partial state observation is exploited to generate and maintain desired entanglement. We employ quantum optomechanical systems with linear or nonlinear photon–phonon interactions to demonstrate the workings of our machine-learning-based entanglement engineering protocol. In particular, the RL agent sequentially interacts with one or multiple parallel quantum optomechanical environments, collects trajectories, and updates the policy to maximize the accumulated reward to create and stabilize quantum entanglement over an arbitrary amount of time. The machine-learning-based model-free control principle is applicable to the entanglement engineering of experimental quantum systems in general.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

From natural language to control signals: a conceptual framework for semantic channel finding in complex experimental infrastructure

Modern experimental platforms such as particle accelerators, fusion devices, telescopes, and industrial process control systems expose tens to hundreds of thousands of control and diagnostic channels, accumulated over decades of hardware evolution. Operators and AI systems alike depend on informal expert knowledge, inconsistent naming conventions, and scattered documentation to locate the signals required for monitoring, troubleshooting, and automated control, creating a persistent bottleneck for reliability, scalability, and emerging language-model-driven interfaces. We formalize semantic channel finding, the task of mapping natural-language intent to concrete control-system signals, as a general problem in complex experimental infrastructure, and introduce a four-paradigm conceptual framework to guide architecture selection based on facility-specific data regimes. The paradigms span (i) direct in-context lookup over small, curated channel dictionaries, (ii) constrained hierarchical navigation through structured trees, (iii) interactive agent exploration using iterative reasoning and tool-based database queries, and (iv) ontology-grounded semantic search that decouples channel meaning from facility-specific naming conventions. We demonstrate the practical feasibility of each paradigm through proof-of-concept implementations at four operational facilities spanning two orders of magnitude in scale: from compact free-electron lasers to large synchrotron light sources, operating under diverse control-system architectures ranging from clean hierarchical naming schemes to legacy environments with decades of heterogeneous conventions. Where evaluated against expert-curated operational queries, these instantiations achieve 90%–97% accuracy, validating the framework’s applicability across real-world deployment scenarios. To accelerate adoption across the broader scientific and industrial control-system community, we release open-source, plug-and-play implementations of all three interactive paradigms-direct lookup, hierarchical navigation, and middle-layer exploration-within the Osprey framework, together with tools for channel database generation, interactive testing, and minimal-configuration deployment. This work establishes semantic channel finding as a foundational capability for human-centric and agentic AI interfaces at large-scale facilities, providing both a systematic framework for architecture design and practical resources to enable adoption without building custom infrastructure from scratch.

channel finding↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transactive Energy System Deployment Over Insecure Communication Links

Here, in this paper, the privacy and security issues associated with the transactive energy system (TES) deployment over insecure communication links are addressed. In particular, it is ensured that 1) individual agents’ bidding information is kept private throughout hierarchical market-based interactions; and 2) any extraneous data injection attack can be quickly and easily detected. An implementation framework is proposed to enable the cryptography-based enhancement of privacy and security for the deployment of any general hierarchical systems including TESs. Under the proposed framework, a unified cryptography-based approach is developed to achieve both privacy and security simultaneously. Specifically, privacy preservation is realized by an enhanced Paillier encryption scheme, where a block design is proposed to significantly improve computational efficiency. Attack detection is further achieved by an enhanced Paillier digital signature scheme, where a stamp-concatenation mechanism is proposed to enable detection of data replace and reorder attacks. Simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed cyber-resilient design for transactive energy systems. Note to Practitioners—This paper is motivated by addressing the issues of cyber resiliency for practically deploying transactive energy system (TES) but it is also applicable to the problem of enhancing the privacy and security for any general hierarchical control systems. TES is an emerging control approach that engages energy suppliers and customers through market operations and uses the price to optimally allocate energy resources. While it has been shown to be promising for power system applications, the underlying market-based interactions raise significant concerns of privacy (data leakage) and security (data tampering). However, existing TES works only focus on the coordination mechanism instead of privacy and security issues. This paper proposes a new cryptography-based TES design for practical deployment. Specifically, to protect privacy, individual supply and demand amounts to be exchanged are all encrypted in a particular way such that the original amounts cannot be inferred from the encrypted amounts, while the desired computation for setting the market clearing price can be carried out over the encrypted amounts, thus generating an encrypted result which, when decrypted, matches that of the same computation over the original amounts. To achieve security, for each exchanged data, its sender generates a particular digital signature which is exchanged together with the data. This enables the receiver to automatically detect the integrity by checking whether a mathematical relationship holds for the pair of data and signature. In our future research, we will investigate more challenging scenarios where some suppliers and customers themselves could be corrupted and purposely submit distorted amounts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards Resilient Design of Leader-following Consensus with Attack Identification and Privacy Preservation Capabilities

This paper considers a leader-following consensus in the presence of unknown but bounded cyber-attacks. Specifically, we consider the following cyber-attack scenarios: (i) an attacker aims to destabilize the consensus dynamics by injecting exogenous signals to both the actuators of the followers and/or the communication network, (ii) an eavesdropper adversary aims to obtain information on the physical state of the agents. To this end, a novel resilient leader-following consensus algorithm based on a competitive interaction method is proposed. In addition, it is demonstrated that by appropriately choosing the information exchanged between the agents, the proposed control framework also enables the cooperative system to either distributively identify the compromised communication links in real-time or to protect the privacy of the physical state of the agents from the eavesdropper. Here, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the proposed resilient control algorithms.

Gusrialdi, Azwirman↗
DOE OSTI2022

System Analysis Modeling and Intermodal Transportation for Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy is applying knowledge and understanding in the areas of systems level engineering, analysis, and decision making to better inform the waste management pathways for U.S. spent nuclear fuel (SNF). Currently there are 93 operating and 23 shutdown commercial nuclear reactors in the United States. SNF at most of these locations is being stored in spent fuel pools, dry storage, or both [1, 2]. This paper initially goes over the basics of the agent-based simulation tool known as the Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) that has the capability to model interaction and movements of individual components or groups like casks, railcars etc. The next section covers some of the methods implemented in the Java Transportation Operations Model (JTOM) to facilitate the movement of assemblies, casks, railcars etc. and the various intermodal transfer options. This section also covers the current cask loading and intermodal transfer times implemented in NGSAM. The last section goes over the proposed values for intermodal transportation, and cask transfer/loading operations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toxin-Antitoxin Systems Reflect Community Interactions Through Horizontal Gene Transfer

Bacterial evolution through horizontal gene transfer (HGT) reflects their community interactions. In this way, HGT networks do well at mapping community interactions, but offer little toward controlling them—an important step in the translation of synthetic strains into natural contexts. Toxin–antitoxin (TA) systems serve as ubiquitous and diverse agents of selection; however, their utility is limited by their erratic distribution in hosts. Here we examine the heterogeneous distribution of TAs as a consequence of their mobility. By systematically mapping TA systems across a 10,000 plasmid network, we find HGT communities have unique and predictable TA signatures. We propose these TA signatures arise from plasmid competition and have further potential to signal the degree to which plasmids, hosts, and phage interact. To emphasize these relationships, we construct an HGT network based solely on TA similarity, framing specific selection markers in the broader context of bacterial communities. This work both clarifies the evolution of TA systems and unlocks a common framework for manipulating community interactions through TA compatibility.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Transactive Energy Network Template Metamodel

While transactive energy, which is defined as an allocation of electricity based on dynamically discovered values or prices, has been extensively studied, its uptake and use has been slow. This report describes a tool, the transactive network template, which should hasten the creation and uptake of transactive energy networks. Some basic principles of transactive energy are familiar from existing wholesale electricity markets. Locational prices are calculated today for zones within bulk electric transmission systems. Locational prices differ while accounting for the locational costs of electricity generation and the losses and constraints incurred when electricity is transmitted from generators and distributed to consumers. A transactive energy network might include these transmission zones. However, current research strives to apply transactive energy also in electricity distribution circuits, buildings, and even for individual generating and consuming devices. At the same time, researchers explore how to apply transactive energy in real time during increasingly shorter time intervals. Automated computational agents become necessary as transactive energy becomes applied to smaller circuit zones and at faster dynamic timescales. A transactive energy network is an example of a multi-agent system. Each zone in the network is represented by its transactive agent, which makes decisions for and acts on behalf of a business entity that is responsible for and manages one of the circuit regions. A transactive energy network is also an example of a decentralized, distributed control system. Control decisions and responsibilities are distributed among the network’s transactive agents. The transactive agents are independent; that is, there typically is no centralized authority or oversight function. Instead, transactive agents exchange transactive signals and thereby negotiate the prices and quantities of electricity that they will exchange. Initially, the circuit regions and responsibilities of transactive agents appear to be very dissimilar. Each circuit region may comprise transmission, distribution, or building-level circuits. Each has a unique position and electrical connectivity within the transactive energy network. Each possesses unique assets that either generate or consume electricity, and these (e.g., renewable energy generator, diesel generator, aggregate utility load, building load, space conditioning, refrigerator, etc.) may further differ in their price flexibility and in their strategies for responding to dynamic electricity prices. Given such diversity, an implementer’s first inclination might be to start from scratch to define all these devices and to engineer their seemingly unique interactions. Given that each implementer’s perspective may be narrow within a transactive energy network, it is unlikely that uniquely engineered systems would interact well. This is where the transactive network template is applicable. The transactive network template is a metamodel that has been developed to guide implementers as they configure their own transactive agent within a network of such agents. The object-oriented design of the transactive network template provides basic code object types that may be used and extended by implementers to represent each of the assets in their circuit region. These objects further facilitate the transactive agent’s necessary computations, which are divided among responsibilities to schedule power usage, balance electric supply and demand, and coordinate the exchange of electricity with the other transactive agents. This report addresses the conceptual transactive network template design. Implementers are directed to more formal design documents and reference implementations. A Python™-based1 reference implementation of the transactive network template has been coded, and three implementations have been configured to represent a national laboratory and two university campuses. Version 2 of the transactive node template generalizes the market class and its methods to facilitate multiple, and more diverse market coordination mechanisms than were facilitated by and demonstrated using Version 1. Version 3 includes new Appendix B, which addresses the designs of methods that would make dynamic prices track approved electricity rates. In the future, the author wishes to make the transactive network template more generally applicable to networks that require more accurate power flow. Development of the transactive network template is jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy and the DOE Office of Electricity. In late 2015, one of the first projects to be funded by the DOE Grid Laboratory Modernization Laboratory Consortium was the Clean Energy and Transactive Campus project, led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. DOE funds were matched by an investment by the Washington Department of Commerce through its Clean Energy Fund. The transactive network template was developed to guide the implementation of transactive energy networks within this project’s scope.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reinforcement Learning Control for Buildings Co-Optimizing Energy, Comfort, and Indoor Air Quality: An Annual Assessment

Efficient control of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems is crucial for optimizing energy use and maintaining indoor comfort in buildings. Traditional control methods, such as PID control, cannot handle energy use trade-offs among multiple components in the building energy system at a supervisory level. Reinforcement learning (RL) presents a promising solution, offering adaptive and data-driven control strategies that optimize performance over time. However, RL also faces several challenges, including the conflicts encountered in co-optimizing energy savings, occupant comfort, and indoor air quality, and the requirement for extensive interactions with the environment in training. We proposed a flexible simulation platform that integrates a hybrid model for RL training and designed an RL agent to control the entire central HVAC system, focusing on co-optimizing energy consumption, thermal comfort, and indoor air quality ($\text{CO}_{2}$ and PM2.5 concentrations). Finally, we evaluated the RL agent's performance over an annual cycle. Our findings indicate that the RL agent can effectively manage the HVAC system with 14.7 % energy savings annually and balance multiple objectives, which demonstrates significant potential for improving HVAC system control and sustainability in buildings.

Guo, Fangzhou↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty characterization in a coupled human-natural system: Modeling agricultural adaptation in the Great Lakes Region

The Great Lakes Region's water quality and ecological health are threatened by the export of nutrients from agricultural lands, which causes eutrophication, hypoxia, and destructive algal blooms. The intensification of hydrologic cycles brought about by climate change is expected to exacerbate nutrient loading in the region, and, at the same time, agricultural adaptation to changing conditions is also expected to affect loading through shifting amounts and timing of fertilization. Quantifying these future effects and their interactions necessitates modeling both the human and natural processes as a coupled system, by pairing land use and agricultural management with hydrologic modeling. At the same time, compounding uncertainties arising from the complex interactions in both systems significantly limit our predictive understanding of the region's impacts. This study utilizes the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), developed for simulating the impact of various farmer decisions on watershed functions in Western Lake Erie watersheds, and an under-development agent-based model (ABM) for agricultural management decisions. The aim of this study is to use global sensitivity analysis on the coupled ABM and SWAT models to quantify how uncertainty in both models interactively affects nutrient loading. To do so, we will conduct Sobol sensitivity analysis experiments at different levels of coupling assumptions to quantify how various uncertain factors (e.g., soil moisture and crop choice) and their interactions affect our estimates of nutrient loading. The results of this analysis will allow us to quantify how complex interactions and dependencies between both systems amplify the effect of uncertainties. Insights gained from this study will have broader implications for modeling the adaptive co-evolution of human and natural systems under climate change and can inform effective management of nutrient loading in the Great Lakes Region.

Climate Change↗