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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex due to increasing contributions of renewable energy generation, energy storage, electrified end uses, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and subjective process. In this work, we assess datasets from various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We present evaluations of their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparisons of their future projections of climate change for two climate change scenarios. We present the results for different climatic and energy system regions and include interactive figures in the accompanying software repository. Previous work has presented similar GCM evaluations, but none have presented variables and metrics specifically intended for comprehensive energy systems analysis including impacts on energy demand, thermal cooling, hydropower, water availability, solar energy generation, and wind energy generation. We focus on GCM output meteorological variables that directly affect these energy system components including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this work is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and scenarios in subsequent work.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics Within Water‐Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models

Determining the age distribution of water exiting a catchment is important for understanding groundwater storage and mixing. New water-tagging capabilities within models track precipitation events as they move through simulated storages, yet forward modeling of individual events may not systematically capture the full transit time distribution (TTD). Here, we present a “sequential precipitation input tagging” (SPIT) framework to tag all input precipitation at regular intervals during extended model simulations. Monthly tags over 7 years were applied at six National Ecological Observatory Network sites to calculate TTDs and derive mean virtual tracer age, $\overline{T_{V}}$, fractions of young water, F yw , and hydrologic tracer concentrations (water isotopes δ 18 O and δ 2 H) within a tagging enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecast hydrologic model (WRF-Hydro). Throughout seven simulation years, the fraction of simulated discharge derived from tagged events, F tag , increased each year, with the final year's F tag ranging from 66% to 100% and highlights the need to apply SPIT over many years to understand TTDs. When the F tag was >75%, simulated $\overline{T_{V}}$ ranged 179–923 days and F yw 0.6%–23.9%, with daily values exhibiting a power-law relationship with precipitation, discharge, and groundwater. Through implementation of SPIT, we find this hydrologic model configuration performs poorly in estimation of $\overline{T_{V}}$ and F yw (root mean squared error of 469 days and 14.4% respectively), suggesting it misrepresents subsurface mixing. Thus, the SPIT framework provides a reproducible approach to calculate watershed transit times within tagging enabled models and thereby assess and improve representation of hydrologic processes.

fraction of young water↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Detailed Vehicle Simulation Process to Support CAFE and CO 2 Standards (MY 2021–2026 Final Rule Analysis)

In 1975, Congress passed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), requiring standards for corporate average fuel economy (CAFE), and charging the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) with the establishment and enforcement of these standards. The Secretary of Transportation has delegated these responsibilities to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). NHTSA has contracted the DOT Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center) to provide analytical support for NHTSA’s regulatory and analytical activities related to fuel economy standards. Unlike long-standing safety and criteria pollutant emissions standards, fuel economy standards apply to manufacturers’ overall fleets rather than to individual vehicle models. In developing the standards, NHTSA made use of the CAFE Compliance and Effects Modeling System (the “CAFE model”), which was developed by DOT’s Volpe Center for the 2005-2007 CAFE rulemaking and has been continually updated since. The model is the primary tool used by the agency to evaluate potential CAFE stringency levels by applying technologies incrementally to each manufacturer’s fleet until the requirements under consideration are met. The CAFE model relies on numerous technology-related and economic inputs such as market forecasts and technology cost and effectiveness estimates; these inputs are categorized by vehicle classification, technology synergies, phase-in rates, cost learning curve adjustments, and technology “decision trees.” The Volpe Center assists NHTSA in the development of the engineering and economic inputs to the CAFE model by analyzing the application of potential technologies to the current automotive industry vehicle fleet to determine the feasibility of future CAFE standards, the associated costs, and the benefits of the standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Detection of False Data Injection Attacks in Battery Stacks Using Input Noise-Aware Nonlinear State Estimation and Cumulative Sum Algorithms

Grid-scale battery energy storage systems (BESSs) are vulnerable to false data injection attacks (FDIAs), which could be used to disrupt state of charge (SoC) estimation. Inaccurate SoC estimation has negative impacts on system availability, reliability, safety, and the cost of operation. In this article a combination of a Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) algorithm and an improved input noise-aware extended Kalman filter (INAEKF) is proposed for the detection and identification of FDIAs in the voltage and current sensors of a battery stack. The series-connected stack is represented by equivalent circuit models, the SoC is modeled with a charge reservoir model and the states are estimated using the INAEKF. Further, the root mean squared error of the states’ estimation by the modified INAEKF was found to be superior to the traditional EKF. By employing the INAEKF, this article addresses the research gap that many state estimators make asymmetrical assumptions about the noise corrupting the system. Additionally, the INAEKF estimates the input allowing for the identification of FDIA, which many alternative methods are unable to achieve. The proposed algorithm was able to detect attacks in the voltage and current sensors in 99.16% of test cases, with no false positives. Utilizing the INAEKF compared to the standard EKF allowed for the identification of FDIA in the input of the system in 98.43% of test cases.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Introducing the GeoRePORT Resource Size Tool: Reporting on Geothermal Resource Size Estimations Using the Geothermal Resource Portfolio Optimization and Reporting Technique (GeoRePORT): Preprint

The Geothermal Resource Portfolio Optimization and Reporting Technique (GeoRePORT) was developed with funding from the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office to assist in identifying and pursuing long-term investment strategies through the development of a resource reporting protocol. The assessment protocols used in GeoRePORT allow for comparison of project attributes across locations and geological settings to understand the feasibility of geothermal development. This work introduces the Resource Size Tool, a new feature within the GeoRePORT package that compiles two independent methods for estimating geothermal resource size in terms of energy capacity in MW. Energy production potential for twenty-three case studies was estimated with the Resource Size Tool in order to 1) generate a reasonable range of resource size estimates for a particular geothermal field; 2) illustrate the advantages and limitations of each methodology (such as data input requirements, estimate accuracy and precision, and the appropriate circumstances of use); and 3) test the ability of the resource size tool to provide useful and accurate information for geothermal stakeholders. The tool employs two methods widely used in the geothermal industry: (1) USGS Volumetric and (2) Power Density. Results from our case studies show general overlap between these two methods in terms of resource size estimates; however, they also reveal key differences between the two approaches that should be considered when using such estimates to drive development. First, the two methods rely on different input parameters and therefore one method may be more appropriate and/or accurate for a given project than the other. Second, the Power Density method was found to generate wider ranges of resource size predictions, more consistently aligning with actual power production of the field but with larger scales of error; whereas the USGS Volumetric method predicts narrower ranges but tends to overestimate when compared to current MW production. Future work will refine variables used in the methods with input data from other sections of GeoRePORT and modify uncertainty levels based on the particular datasets used for a given project.

geological↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electrodynamic Shaker Capability Estimation Through Experimental Dynamic Substructuring [Thesis]

Electrodynamic shaker systems are an essential tool in shock and vibration testing of dynamic environments. However, the specific performance capability of these systems is difficult to characterize. The dynamics of the shaker itself, the device under test and the specific test configuration used all couple to create a dynamic response unique to each test. Poorly predicted limitations in shaker capability affect the ability to achieve test specifications, delay testing schedules, and create difficulties for choosing test equipment. To predict shaker capability for a specific test configuration prior to setup, a lumped parameter model of the shaker system and a modal model of a device under test was developed. These models were then analytically coupled using LaGrange multiplier frequency based substructuring to estimate their coupled frequency response functions. The coupled frequency response functions were used to predict electrical inputs required to meet a given test specification. These input requirements were finally compared to a validation test using the specification and setup. Input requirements estimated using the substructuring estimated frequency response functions showed significant error. However, results using an ideal frequency response function showed very little error. These results indicate that with a better method of experimental dynamic substructuring employed it would be possible to accurately predict shaker capability for a given test configuration prior to setup.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A reforecasting-based dynamic reserve estimation for variable renewable generation and demand uncertainty

The installed capacity of renewables-based energy sources has been increasing in traditional power systems. In order to accommodate the increased variability and uncertainty associated with the deeper penetration of renewable sources like solar and wind, adjusted amounts of dynamic reserve are needed. Although probabilistic dynamic reserve estimation methods have been previously developed, most of them consider the uncertainty to be represented by parametric density functions that tend to perform poorly under extreme events and, moreover, neglect uncertainty introduced by the forecasting model itself. Toward addressing these limitations, this work presents, for the first time, a dynamic reserve estimation method for flexibility that incorporates nonparametric density estimation and a machine learning based reforecasting to provide a day-ahead prediction of the mean and spread of uncertainty around the base forecast. The prediction is, in turn, used to estimate the up and down reserve relative to the base forecast. Here, the present method takes various endogenous and exogenous features, including the calendar variables, as input to estimate the day-ahead reserve. Using a combination of reforecasting and dynamic reserve estimation techniques, the method is shown to adjust better to the dynamic nature of reserve requirements providing only what is needed to accommodate the expected deviations. Considering California Independent System Operator (CAISO) solar, wind and load data over an 18 month period, up to 67% reduction in the amount of reserve capacity needed for a one day reserve and reserve penalty for solar uncertainty is demonstrated. Additionally, the risk of reserve insufficiency in meeting the net demand is reduced by 20% with the proposed method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Excavation Volume Growth Factors at Environmental Remediation Sites - 20318

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) manages numerous environmental remediation projects in accordance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act, otherwise known as CERCLA. These include projects for the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Utilizing the CERCLA framework to address these projects requires detailed cost estimates and a significant portion of costs are associated with the volume of material to be excavated and that material's final disposition. Accordingly, understanding the expected volumes and uncertainty associated with those volumes is vital to project cost estimating. These estimates are completed at various stages of the CERCLA process, thus the project team has varying degrees of information available from which to develop these estimates depending on how far along the project is. Understanding the factors contributing to volume growth (increase in volume of material from that originally estimated) is a crucial element to determining volume and cost uncertainty. This paper presents a case study of a FUSRAP site which involves excavation and offsite disposal of contaminated soils from complex commercial, industrial, and residential properties. Original volume estimates were compared to post excavation volumes on a property by property basis. Reasons for differences are determined along with magnitude of impacts to cost estimating. For both residential and commercial property types, volume estimating factors, uncertainty considerations, and methods to account for each are discussed with emphasis on volume growth considerations. Cost estimating model input considerations are discussed with specific emphasis on accounting for volume uncertainty at the Feasibility Study (FS) phase of CERCLA. Underestimating or overestimating costs at the FS phase has repercussions under CERCLA that may impact project close out or completion schedule. Discussions presented will be helpful to both reviewers and preparers of cost estimates involving excavations. Additionally, project planners may be able to use the information to plan for volume growth contingencies. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating cluster masses from SDSS multiband images with transfer learning

ABSTRACT The total masses of galaxy clusters characterize many aspects of astrophysics and the underlying cosmology. It is crucial to obtain reliable and accurate mass estimates for numerous galaxy clusters over a wide range of redshifts and mass scales. We present a transfer-learning approach to estimate cluster masses using the ugriz-band images in the SDSS Data Release 12. The target masses are derived from X-ray or SZ measurements that are only available for a small subset of the clusters. We designed a semisupervised deep learning model consisting of two convolutional neural networks. In the first network, a feature extractor is trained to classify the SDSS photometric bands. The second network takes the previously trained features as inputs to estimate their total masses. The training and testing processes in this work depend purely on real observational data. Our algorithm reaches a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.232 dex on average and 0.214 dex for the best fold. The performance is comparable to that given by redMaPPer, 0.192 dex. We have further applied a joint integrated gradient and class activation mapping method to interpret such a two-step neural network. The performance of our algorithm is likely to improve as the size of training data set increases. This proof-of-concept experiment demonstrates the potential of deep learning in maximizing the scientific return of the current and future large cluster surveys.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advanced control sequences and FDD technology. Just shiny objects, or ready for scale?

Innovations in commercial building control sequences (ASHRAE guideline 36) and fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) technology have the potential to transform existing building operational efficiency by realizing whole-building level savings on the order of 15% and higher. However, several technical and market barriers related to up-front estimation of achievable savings, verifying implementation, and ensuring persistence are slowing down their adoption as a core offering through diverse owner-funded initiatives and rate-payer funded programs. This paper describes a suite of solutions to overcome these barriers to program delivery of advanced HVAC controls integrated with FDD energy management and information system (EMIS) technology. First, the Guideline 36 conformance test offers an automated method to confirm correct sequence implementation by the manufacturer, before field deployment. A successful test of a controller was conducted using a new manufacturer-independent hardware-in-the-loop testbed demonstrating the viability and scalability of this approach. Second, the Guideline 36 energy savings calculator uses modeling paired with high-level user inputs to estimate building-specific savings potential, target cost effective implementation and minimize uncertainty. Initial results indicate the baseline control sequences significantly impact energy savings, however, as much as 50% savings may be possible for the worst-case baseline scenario. Third, a functional specification provides minimum recommended EMIS-FDD capabilities, and best practices to integrate the technology into organizational practice and ensure that advanced control sequences provide persistent savings.

Pritoni, Marco↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantification of the effect of uncertainty on impurity migration in PISCES-A simulated with GITR

A Bayesian inference strategy has been used to estimate uncertain inputs to global impurity transport code (GITR) modeling predictions of tungsten erosion and migration in the linear plasma device, PISCES-A. This allows quantification of GITR output uncertainty based on the uncertainties in measured PISCES-A plasma electron density and temperature profiles (n e , T e ) used as inputs to GITR. The technique has been applied for comparison to dedicated experiments performed for high (4 × 10 22 m –2 s –1 ) and low (5 × 10 21 m –2 s –1 ) flux 250 eV He–plasma exposed tungsten (W) targets designed to assess the net and gross erosion of tungsten, and corresponding W impurity transport. The W target design and orientation, impurity collector, and diagnostics, have been designed to eliminate complexities associated with tokamak divertor plasma exposures (inclined target, mixed plasma species, re-erosion, etc) to benchmark results against the trace impurity transport model simulated by GITR. The simulated results of the erosion, migration, and re-deposition of W during the experiment from the GITR code coupled to materials response models are presented. Specifically, the modeled and experimental W I emission spectroscopy data for a 429.4 nm line and net erosion through the target and collector mass difference measurements are compared. Furthermore, the methodology provides predictions of observable quantities of interest with quantified uncertainty, allowing estimation of moments, together with the sensitivities to plasma temperature and density.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rainfall events stimulate episodic associative nitrogen fixation in switchgrass

Abstract Associative N 2 fixation (ANF) is widespread but poorly characterized, limiting our ability to estimate global inputs from N 2 fixation. In some places, ANF rates are at or below detection most of the time but occasionally and unpredictably spiking to very high rates. Here we test the hypothesis that plant phenology and rainfall events stimulate ANF episodes. We measured ANF in intact soil cores in switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) in Michigan, USA. We used rain exclusion shelters to impose three rainfall treatments with each receiving 60 mm of water over a 20-day period but at different frequencies. We concurrently established a treatment that received ambient rainfall, and all four treatments were replicated four times. To assess the effects of plant phenology, we measured ANF at key phenological stages in the ambient treatment. To assess the effects of rainfall, we measured ANF immediately before and immediately after each wetting event in each treatment involving rainfall manipulation. We found that the previous day’s rainfall could explain 29% of the variation in ANF rates within the ambient treatment alone, and that bulk soil C:N ratio was also positively correlated with ANF, explaining 18% of the variation alone. Wetting events increased ANF and the magnitude of response to wetting increased with the amount of water added and decreased with the amount of inorganic N added in water. ANF episodes thus appear to be driven primarily by wetting events. Wetting events likely increase C availability, promote microbial growth, and make rhizosphere conditions conducive to ANF.

Vizza, Carmella (ORCID:0000000292690357)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Temporal Error Correlations in a Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Model Derived by Comparison to Carbon Dioxide Eddy Covariance Flux Tower Measurements

Abstract Atmospheric CO 2 flux inversions require as input an estimate of spatial and temporal correlations of errors in their estimate of the prior mean. Some previous studies have used the differences in CO 2 daily average flux estimates produced by terrestrial carbon cycle models and eddy covariance measurements to constrain the flux error correlations. Since inversions are starting to resolve the daily cycle, we set out to examine the correlations at sub‐daily time scales, as well as the correlations across years. To this end, we examine the autocorrelations in the difference between net ecosystem‐atmosphere exchange measurements from 75 AmeriFlux towers and temporally downscaled high‐spatial‐resolution flux estimates from the Carnegie‐Ames‐Stanford Approach (CASA) terrestrial carbon cycle model. We find that the daily cycle is prominent in these hourly autocorrelations and that these autocorrelations persist across years. We propose a family of functions to model these temporal correlations in atmospheric inversions, and use cross validation to determine which of the correlation functions best fits autocorrelation data from towers not in the training set. Correlation functions with a component that attempts to model the daily cycle in the differences match correlations from other towers better than those without. Those models that reproduce the same correlation structures at 1‐year intervals while modulating the amplitudes of the correlations between those intervals improve the fit still further.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mid- to long-wave infrared computational spectroscopy with a graphene metasurface modulator

In recent years there has been much interest concerning the development of modulators in the mid- to long-wave infrared, based on emerging materials such as graphene. These have been frequently pursued for optical communications, though also for other specialized applications such as infrared scene projectors. Here we investigate a new application for graphene modulators in the mid- to long-wave infrared. We demonstrate, for the first time, computational spectroscopy in the mid- to long-wave infrared using a graphene-based metasurface modulator. Furthermore, our metasurface device operates at low gate voltage. To demonstrate computational spectroscopy, we provide our algorithm with the measured reflection spectra of the modulator at different gate voltages. We also provide it with the measured reflected light power as a function of the gate voltage. The algorithm then estimates the input spectrum. We show that the reconstructed spectrum is in good agreement with that measured directly by a Fourier transform infrared spectrometer, with a normalized mean-absolute-error (NMAE) of 0.021.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measurement of the ionization response of amorphous selenium with 122 keV γ rays

In this work, we performed a measurement of the ionization response of 200 μm-thick amorphous selenium (aSe) layers under drift electric fields of up to 50 V/μm. The aSe target was exposed to ionizing radiation from a 57 Co radioactive source and the ionization pulses were recorded with high resolution. Using the spectral line from the photoabsorption of 122 keV γ rays, we measured the charge yield in aSe and the line width as a function of drift electric field. From a detailed microphysics simulation of charge generation and recombination in aSe, we conclude that the strong dependence of recombination on the ionization track density provides the dominant contribution to the energy resolution in aSe. These results provide valuable input to estimate the sensitivity of a proposed next-generation search for the neutrinoless ββ decay of 82 Se that aims to employ imaging sensors with an active layer of aSe. We estimate the RMS line width of the integrated ionization signal from neutrinoless ββ decay events (of deposited energy 3 MeV) to be 2.0% for a drift field of 50 V/μm. The energy resolution can be improved to 1% by correcting for the charge yield as a function of ionization density along the imaged electron tracks.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗