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At least 37 records · Page 2

Computer Model Calibration with Time Series Data Using Deep Learning and Quantile Regression

Computer models play a key role in many scientific and engineering problems. One major source of uncertainty in computer model experiments is input parameter uncertainty. Computer model calibration is a formal statistical procedure to infer input parameters by combining information from model runs and observational data. The existing standard calibration framework suffers from inferential issues when the model output and observational data are high-dimensional dependent data, such as large time series, due to the difficulty in building an emulator and the nonidentifiability between effects from input parameters and data-model discrepancy. To overcome these challenges, we, in this work, propose a new calibration framework based on a deep neural network (DNN) with long short-term memory layers that directly emulates the inverse relationship between the model output and input parameters. Adopting the “learning with noise” idea, we train our DNN model to filter out the effects from data-model discrepancy on input parameter inference. We also formulate a new way to construct interval predictions for DNN using quantile regression to quantify the uncertainty in input parameter estimates. Through a simulation study and real data application with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro), we show our approach can yield accurate point estimates and well-calibrated interval estimates for input parameters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Blade frequency program for nonuniform helicopter rotors, with automated frequency search

A computer program for determining the natural frequencies and normal modes of a lumped parameter model of a rotating, twisted beam, with nonuniform mass and elastic properties was developed. The program is used to solve the conditions existing in a helicopter rotor where the outboard end of the rotor has zero forces and moments. Three frequency search methods have been implemented. Including an automatic search technique, which allows the program to find up to the fifteen lowest natural frequencies without the necessity for input estimates of these frequencies.

Sadler, S. G.↗

Solution of inverse problem of fuzzy relational equation by using perceptron model

A Max-Min fuzzy system can be regarded as a network of max and min operational elements. Thus, the inverse problem of a fuzzy relational equation is interpreted as an input estimation problem from output values in the corresponding network. An approximate network model of a fuzzy relational system is proposed. An algorithm for obtaining an approximate solution of the system is presented for using a neural network technique.

Hirota, Kaoru↗

Neural-Network Modeling Of Arc Welding

Artificial neural networks considered for use in monitoring and controlling gas/tungsten arc-welding processes. Relatively simple network, using 4 welding equipment parameters as inputs, estimates 2 critical weld-bead paramaters within 5 percent. Advantage is computational efficiency.

Anderson, Kristinn↗

Computational Models of the Cardiovascular System and Its Response to Microgravity

Computational models of the cardiovascular system are powerful adjuncts to ground-based and in-flight experiments. We will provide NSBRI with a model capable of simulating the short-term effects of gravity on cardiovascular function. The model from this project will: (1) provide a rational framework which quantitatively defines interactions among complex cardiovascular parameters and which supports the critical interpretation of experimental results and testing of hypotheses. (2) permit predictions of the impact of specific countermeasures in the context of various hypothetical cardiovascular abnormalities induced by microgravity. Major progress has been made during the first 18 months of the program: (1) We have developed an operational first-order computer model capable of simulating the cardiovascular response to orthostatic stress. The model consists of a lumped parameter hemodynamic model and a complete reflex control system. The latter includes cardiopulmonary and carotid sinus reflex limbs and interactions between the two. (2) We have modeled the physiologic stress of tilt table experiments and lower body negative pressure procedures (LBNP). We have verified our model's predictions by comparing them with experimental findings from the literature. (3) We have established collaborative efforts with leading investigators interested in experimental studies of orthostatic intolerance, cardiovascular control, and physiologic responses to space flight. (4) We have established a standardized method of transferring data to our laboratory from the ongoing NSBRI bedrest studies. We use this data to estimate input parameters to our model and compare our model predictions to actual data to further verify our model. (5) We are in the process of systematically simulating current hypotheses concerning the mechanism underlying orthostatic intolerance by matching our simulations to stand test data from astronauts pre- and post-flight. (6) We are in the process of developing a JAVA version of the simulator which will be distributed amongst the cardiovascular team members. Future work on this project involves modifications of the model to represent a rodent (rat) model, further evaluation of the bedrest astronaut and animal data, and systematic investigation of specific countermeasures.

Kamm, Roger D.↗

The Effects of Lightning NO(x) Production during the July 21 EULINOX Storm studied with a 3-D Cloud-scale Chemical Transport Model

The July 21,1998 thunderstonn observed during the European Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Project (EULINOX) project was simulated using the three-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The simulation successfully reproduced a number of observed storm features including the splitting of the original cell into a southern cell which developed supercell characteristics, and a northern cell which became multicellular. Output from the GCE simulation was used to drive an offline cloud-scale chemical transport model which calculates tracer transport and includes a parameterization of lightning NO(x) production which uses observed flash rates as input. Estimates of lightning NO(x) production were deduced by assuming various values of production per intracloud and production per cloud-to-ground flash and comparing the results with in-cloud aircraft observations. The assumption that both types of flashes produce 360 moles of NO per flash on average compared most favorably with column mass and probability distribution functions calculated from observations. This assumed production per flash corresponds to a global annual lightning NOx source of 7 Tg N per yr. Chemical reactions were included in the model to evaluate the impact of lightning NO(x), on ozone. During the storm, the inclusion of lightning NOx in the model results in a small loss of ozone (on average less than 4 ppbv) at all model levels. Simulations of the chemical environment in the 24 hours following the storm show on average a small increase in the net production of ozone at most levels resulting from lightning NO(x), maximizing at approximately 5 ppbv per day at 5.5 km. Between 8 and 10.5 km, lightning NO(x) causes decreased net ozone production.

Ott, Lesley E.↗

Modal Analysis and Correlation of International Space Station Early Configurations

This paper will summarize the modal analysis and model refinement results for the International Space Station (ISS) Flight-2A mated configuration. To maintain structural integrity of the ISS, structural loading distributions have been rigorously analyzed through numerical simulation and taken into account during the design of the structure and mission operations. The accuracy of the analysis results is directly affected by the precision of mathematical models and estimated input forces. A mathematical model of an ISS configuration is composed of individual component math models. Each component model is required to be correlated with ground test data.

Kaouk, Mohamed↗

Miniature Sapphire Acoustic Resonator - MSAR

A room temperature sapphire acoustics resonator incorporated into an oscillator represents a possible opportunity to improve on quartz ultrastable oscillator (USO) performance, which has been a staple for NASA missions since the inception of spaceflight. Where quartz technology is very mature and shows a performance improvement of perhaps 1 dB/decade, these sapphire acoustic resonators when integrated with matured quartz electronics could achieve a frequency stability improvement of 10 dB or more. As quartz oscillators are an essential element of nearly all types of frequency standards and reference systems, the success of MSAR would advance the development of frequency standards and systems for both groundbased and flight-based projects. Current quartz oscillator technology is limited by quartz mechanical Q. With a possible improvement of more than x 10 Q with sapphire acoustic modes, the stability limit of current quartz oscillators may be improved tenfold, to 10(exp -14) at 1 second. The electromagnetic modes of sapphire that were previously developed at JPL require cryogenic temperatures to achieve the high Q levels needed to achieve this stability level. However sapphire fs acoustic modes, which have not been used before in a high-stability oscillator, indicate the required Q values (as high as Q = 10(exp 8)) may be achieved at room temperature in the kHz range. Even though sapphire is not piezoelectric, such a high Q should allow electrostatic excitation of the acoustic modes with a combination of DC and AC voltages across a small sapphire disk (approximately equal to l mm thick). The first evaluations under this task will test predictions of an estimated input impedance of 10 kilohms at Q = 10(exp 8), and explore the Q values that can be realized in a smaller resonator, which has not been previously tested for acoustic modes. This initial Q measurement and excitation demonstration can be viewed similar to a transducer converting electrical energy to mechanical energy and back. Such an electrostatic tweeter type excitation of a mechanical resonator will be tested at 5 MHz. Finite element calculation will be applied to resonator design for the desired resonator frequency and optimum configuration. The experiment consists of the sapphire resonator sandwiched between parallel electrodes. A DC+AC voltage can be applied to generate a force to act on a sapphire resonator. With the frequency of the AC voltage tuned to the sapphire resonator frequency, a resonant condition occurs and the sapphire Q can be measured with a high-frequency impedance analyzer. To achieve high Q values, many experimental factors such as vacuum seal, gas damping effects, charge buildup on the sapphire surface, heat dissipation, sapphire anchoring, and the sapphire mounting configuration will need attention. The effects of these parameters will be calculated and folded into the resonator design. It is envisioned that the initial test configuration would allow for movable electrodes to check gap spacing dependency and verify the input impedance prediction. Quartz oscillators are key components in nearly all ground- and space-based communication, tracking, and radio science applications. They play a key role as local oscillators for atomic frequency standards and serve as flywheel oscillators or to improve phase noise in high performance frequency and timing distribution systems. With ultra-stable performance from one to three seconds, an Earth-orbit or moon-based MSAR can enhance available performance options for spacecraft due to elimination of atmospheric path degradation.

Wang, Rabi T.↗

The Evolution of Friction Stir Welding Theory at Marshall Space Flight Center

From 1995 to the present the friction stir welding (FSW) process has been under study at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). This is an account of the progressive emergence of a set of conceptual tools beginning with the discovery of the shear surface, wiping metal transfer, and the invention of a kinematic model and making possible a treatment of both metallurgical structure formation and process dynamics in friction stir welding from a unified point of view. It is generally observed that the bulk of the deformation of weld metal around the FSW pin takes place in a very narrow, almost discontinuous zone with high deformation rates characteristic of metal cutting. By 1999 it was realized that this zone could be treated as a shear surface like that in simple metal cutting models. At the shear surface the seam is drawn out and compressed and pressure and flow conditions determine whether or not a sound weld is produced. The discovery of the shear surface was followed by the synthesis of a simple 3- flow kinematic model of the FSW process. Relative to the tool the flow components are: (1) an approaching translational flow at weld speed V, (2) a rotating cylindrical plug flow with the angular velocity of the tool , and (3) a relatively slow ring vortex flow (like a smoke ring) encircling the tool and driven by shoulder scrolls and pin threads. The rotating plug flow picks up an element of weld metal, rotates it around with the tool, and deposits it behind the tool ( wiping metal transfer ); it forms plan section loops in tracers cut through by the tool. Radially inward flow from the ring vortex component retains metal longer in the rotating plug and outward flow expels metal earlier; this interaction forms the looping weld seam trace and the tongue and groove bimetallic weld contour. The radial components of the translational and ring vortex flows introduce parent metal intrusions into the small grained nugget material close to the tool shoulder; if this feature is pronounced, nugget collapse may result. Certain weld features, in particular internal banding seen in transverse section as onion rings and associated surface ridges called tool marks , have long implied an oscillation flow component, but have only recently been attributed in the literature to tool eccentricity. Rotating plug shape, typically a hollow cylinder flared at the end where it sticks to the shoulder, varies as pressure distribution on the tool determines where sticking occurs. Simplified power input estimates balanced against heat loss estimates give reasonable temperature estimates, explain why the power requirement changes hardly at all over a wide range of RPM s, and yield isotherms that seem to fall along boundaries of parameter windows of operation.

Nunes, Arthur C.↗

Frequency-Domain Deconvolution for Flight Dynamics Applications

A deconvolution method is presented for estimating input data from measured output data and a model of the dynamic process involved. The method uses an optimal Wiener filter for separating the measured data into signal and noise components, and a high-accuracy Fourier transform for inverting the model dynamics in the frequency domain. The method is an extension of optimal Fourier smoothing, and uses a technique to enhance the contrast between the signal and noise spectra in designing the Wiener filter. The deconvolution method was applied to simulation and flight test data for the purposes of removing unwanted distortions introduced by signal-conditioning filters and sensor dynamics, and for reconstructing turbulence inputs from measured sensor data. Results indicated hat the method performs well given good signal-to-noise levels and accurate models of the dynamic process.

Grauer, Jared A.↗

Local modeling for FRF estimation with noisy input measurements

The frequency response function (FRF) is an essential means by which dynamic systems are qualified. In recent years, local modeling approaches have been extensively researched and shown to significantly outperform traditional FRF estimators. However, the standard local modeling approach assumes a perfectly-known system input, which results in biased FRF estimates in the presence of input noise. This paper derives a simple adjustment that can be used to improve FRF estimation for systems subjected to random excitation with noisy input data. This improvement can be implemented with little modification to standard local modeling algorithms and with little additional computational burden. The adjustment is coupled with a model selection procedure to avoid underfitting and overfitting. In conclusion, the methods presented in this paper are validated on a simulation, and they are shown to reduce bias due to input noise.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Effects of control inputs on the estimation of stability and control parameters of a light airplane

The maximum likelihood parameter estimation technique was used to determine the values of stability and control derivatives from flight test data for a low-wing, single-engine, light airplane. Several input forms were used during the tests to investigate the consistency of parameter estimates as it relates to inputs. These consistencies were compared by using the ensemble variance and estimated Cramer-Rao lower bound. In addition, the relationship between inputs and parameter correlations was investigated. Results from the stabilator inputs are inconclusive but the sequence of rudder input followed by aileron input or aileron followed by rudder gave more consistent estimates than did rudder or ailerons individually. Also, square-wave inputs appeared to provide slightly improved consistency in the parameter estimates when compared to sine-wave inputs.

Cannaday, R. L.↗

An optical-input Maximum Likelihood Estimation feedback system demonstrated on tokamak horizontal equilibrium control

A readily parallelized Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) algorithm with linear computational complexity is demonstrated in real time using only measurements from an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) diagnostic to control the horizontal position of a tokamak plasma. A set of trial emissivity profiles are parameterized by the control quantity of interest (R m ), and the MLE is identified from the profile which minimizes the signal reconstruction residual. The algorithm depends on an empirically determined likelihood function with exponential form. EUV emission (λ ≈ 15eV-1keV) is captured in a poloidal plane by four 16-channel AXUV diodes mounted at different poloidal angles with radial and angular resolution sufficient to discern plasma equilibrium evolution in HBT-EP. Calculations of the plasma major radius by the system are consistent within diagnostic uncertainty for the majority of the discharge with those of: a weighted average of vertical soft X-ray or EUV chords, magnetic sensors, and an equilibrium reconstruction. The feedback system corrects for a horizontal displacement of the major radius equal to 20% of the plasma minor radius by adjusting the vertical field produced from 40 in-vessel control coils in real time. The MLE calculation is performed on a GPU in a 15 μs cycle, with similar performance in this application to a simple weighted average of vertical chords. Finally, results demonstrate horizontal position control using magnetic actuators and an optical observer.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Correlation-Aided Robust Decentralized Dynamic State Estimation of Power Systems with Unknown Control Inputs

This paper proposes a correlation-aided robust adaptive unscented Kalman filter for power system decentralized dynamic state estimation with unknown inputs, termed as robust AUKF-UI. The temporal and spatial correlations among the unknown inputs are used to derive a vector auto-regressive (VAR) model in an adaptive manner. This VAR model is further integrated together with state transition and measurement models for joint state and unknown inputs estimation. This allows taking into account the implicit cross-correlations between the states and the unknown inputs. As a result, the rank requirement for unknown input vector estimation is relaxed and the local generator frequency measurement is not required. The temporal correlations of time series innovation vectors, predicted state and input vectors are also leveraged by the robust AUKFUI to detect, identify and process bad data. Without these correlations, it is very challenging to address bad data with unknown inputs. Simulation results carried out on the IEEE 39-bus system demonstrate that the proposed robust AUKF-UI achieves much better results than other methods in the presence of low measurement redundancy, strong nonlinearity, and bad data.

Zhao, Junbo↗

Real Time Calibration Method for Signal Conditioning Amplifiers

A signal conditioning amplifier receives an input signal from an input such as a transducer. The signal is amplified and processed through an analog to digital converter and sent to a processor. The processor estimates the input signal provided by the transducer to the amplifier via a multiplexer. The estimated input signal is provided as a calibration voltage to the amplifier immediately following the receipt of the amplified input signal. The calibration voltage is amplified by the amplifier and provided to the processor as an amplified calibration voltage. The amplified calibration voltage is compared to the amplified input signal, and if a significant error exists, the gain and/or offset of the amplifier may be adjusted as necessary.

Pedro J Medelius↗

Data and scripts associated with “Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics within Water-Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models” (v3)

This data package is associated with the publication “Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics within Water-Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models” submitted to Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (Butler et al. 2025). This study developed the Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) framework to tag input precipitation and estimate water transit times and hydrologic tracers. SPIT tags all precipitation events at regular intervals over an extended period (monthly tags over seven years) in a hydrologic model from 2016-2022. SPIT is applied at six National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites across the continental United States to calculate transit time distributions (TTD) and derive from these mean transit times (MTT), fractions of young water (Fyw), and hydrologic tracer concentrations in stream water (δ18O) within a water-tagging enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecast (WT-WRF-Hydro) model with national water model (NWM) configurations. We go on to validate WT-WRF-Hydro estimates against Butler et al. (2023), who analyzed the same NEON sites using stable water isotope data to estimate water transit times. This new tracking method provides a detailed picture of water movement and helps improve predictions about water availability in the future. This data package was originally published in January 2025. It was updated May 2025 (v2; new and modified files) and October 2025 (v3; new and modified files). File and folder names were not revised to indicate changes. See the change history section in the readme for more details. This data package contains the data and scripts used to develop the SPIT framework WT-WRF-Hydro (Water Tagging Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic) model and is associated with the following GitHub repository: https://github.com/zbutler33/SPIT-Framework. This data package contains five parent folders: (1) “Manipulated_outputs”, (2) “Metadata”, (3) “Observed”, (4) “Outputs”, and (5) “Scripts”. Each of these parent folders contains additional subfolders and files. Please see the FLMD (“v*_Butler_2024_WT_WRF_Hydro_flmd.csv”) for a list of all the files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. See the data dictionary (“v*_Butler_2024_WT_WRF_Hydro_dd.csv”) for definitions and units of all of the tabular (files ending in “.csv” and ".tsv") column headers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Flight investigation of various control inputs intended for parameter estimation

An experiment assessing the stability and control derivatives resulting from various control inputs was undertaken using the F-8 digital fly by wire aircraft. Improved control inputs have been proposed as a means of making stability and contol derivative estimation more efficient, thus reducing the cost of flight testing and data analysis. The subject inputs were either generated by the pilot or preprogrammed in a remote ground computer and telemetered to the aircraft. Nine preprogrammed inputs and three pilot generated inputs were assessed at subsonic and supersonic flight conditions, and both unaugmented and highly augmented flight control systems were used. Effects of input amplitude were also assessed. The inputs were divided into two general types - sinusoidal or with corners (a rapid and distinct change in slope). The inputs with corners, performed in the unaugmented mode, produced the best sets of stability and control derivatives. The simplest of these inputs, the pilot generated doublet, produced sets of derivatives as good as those produced by the more complex inputs. Small inputs produced worse derivatives than the unaugmented mode, and sinusoidal inputs produced worse derivatives than corner containing inputs.

Shafer, M. F.↗