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At least 37 records · Page 2

An initial state perturbation experiment with the GISS model

Monthly mean global forecasts for January 1975 have been computed with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model from four slightly different sets of initial conditions - a 'control' state and three random perturbations thereof - to simulate the effects of initial state uncertainty on forecast quality. Differences among the forecasts are examined in terms of energetics, synoptic patterns and forecast statistics. The 'noise level' of the model predictions is depicted on global maps of standard deviations of sea level pressures, 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures for the set of four forecasts. Initial small-scale random errors do not appear to result in any major degradation of the large-scale monthly mean forecast beyond that generated by the model itself, nor do they appear to represent the major source of large-scale forecast error.

Spar, J.↗

Do initial conditions matter? A comparison of model climatologies generated from different initial states

A coarse mesh (8 by 10) 7 layer global climate model was used to compute 15 months of meteorological history in two perpetual January experiments on a water planet (without continents) with a zonally symmetric climatological January sea surface temperature field. In the first of the two water planet experiments the initial atmospheric state was a set of zonal mean values of specific humidity, temperature, and wind at each latitude. In the second experiment the model was initialized with globally uniform mean values of specific humidity and temperature on each sigma level surface, constant surface pressure (1010 mb), and zero wind everywhere. A comparison was made of the mean January climatic states generated by the two water planet experiments. The first two months of each 15 January run were discarded, and 13 month averages were computed from months 3 through 15.

Spar, J.↗

T2M Forecasts at Subseasonal Leads: Do Different Soil Moisture Initial States Have Different Impacts?

Soil moisture (W) helps control evapotranspiration (ET), and ET variations can in turn have a distinct impact on 2-m air temperature (T2M), given that increases in evaporative cooling encourage reduced temperatures. Soil moisture is accordingly linked to T2M, and realistic soil moisture initialization has, in previous studies, been shown to improve the skill of subseasonal T2M forecasts. The relationship between soil moisture and evapotranspiration, however, is distinctly nonlinear, with ET tending to increase with soil moisture in drier conditions and to be insensitive to soil moisture variations in wetter conditions. Here, through an extensive analysis of subseasonal forecasts produced with a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system, this nonlinearity is shown to imprint itself on T2M forecast error in the conterminous United States in two unique ways: (i) the T2M forecast bias (relative to independent observations) induced by a negative precipitation bias tends to be larger for dry initializations, and (ii) on average, the unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE) tends to be larger for dry initializations. Such findings can aid in the identification of forecasts of opportunity; taken a step further, they suggest a pathway for improving bias correction and uncertainty estimation in subseasonal T2M forecasts by conditioning each on initial soil moisture state.

2-meter Temperature↗

Correlations between flow and transverse momentum in Xe + Xe and Pb + Pb collisions at the LHC with the ATLAS detector: A probe of the heavy-ion initial state and nuclear deformation

The correlations between flow harmonics v n for n = 2, 3, and 4 and mean transverse momentum [p T ] in 129 Xe + 129 Xe and 208 Pb + 208 Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 5.44 and 5.02 TeV, respectively, are measured using charged particles with the ATLAS detector. The correlations are potentially sensitive to the shape and size of the initial geometry, nuclear deformation, and initial momentum anisotropy. The effects from nonflow and centrality fluctuations are minimized, respectively, via a subevent cumulant method and an event-activity selection based on particle production at very forward rapidity. The v n -[p T ] correlations show strong dependencies on centrality, harmonic number n, p T , and pseudorapidity range. Current models qualitatively describe the overall centralityand system-dependent trends but fail to quantitatively reproduce all features of the data. In central collisions, where models generally show good agreement, the v 2 -[p T ] correlations are sensitive to the triaxiality of the quadruple deformation. Comparison of the model with the Pb + Pb and Xe + Xe data confirms that the 129 Xe nucleus is a highly deformed triaxial ellipsoid that has neither a prolate nor oblate shape. This provides strong evidence for a triaxial deformation of the 129 Xe nucleus from high-energy heavy-ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Possible origin of α -vacua as the initial state of the Universe

We investigate the cosmological observables using the Euclidean path integral approach. Specifically, we study both the no-boundary compact instantons scenario and the Euclidean wormholes scenario that can induce the creation of two universes from nothing. It is known that perturbations associated with the no-boundary scenario can only be consistent with the Bunch-Davies vacuum. Here, in this study, we demonstrate that the Euclidean wormholes can allow for a de Sitter invariant vacuum, the so-called α -vacua state, where the Bunch-Davies vacuum is a special case. This therefore provides the α -vacua a geometrical origin. As an aside, we discuss a subtle phase issue when considering the power spectrum related to α -vacua in the closed universe framework.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Solution of nonlinear multivariable constrained systems using a gradient projection digital algorithm that is insensitive to the initial state

Optimal digital control of nonlinear multivariable constrained systems was studied. The optimal controller in the form of an algorithm was improved and refined by reducing running time and storage requirements. A particularly difficult system of nine nonlinear state variable equations was chosen as a test problem for analyzing and improving the controller. Lengthy analysis, modeling, computing and optimization were accomplished. A remote interactive teletype terminal was installed. Analysis requiring computer usage of short duration was accomplished using Tuskegee's VAX 11/750 system.

Hargrove, A.↗

Fault detection and initial state verification by linear programming for a class of Petri nets

The authors present an algorithmic approach to determining when the marking of a LSMG (live safe marked graph) or a LSFC (live safe free choice) net is in the set of live safe markings M. Hence, once the marking of a net is determined to be in M, then if at some time thereafter the marking of this net is determined not to be in M, this indicates a fault. It is shown how linear programming can be used to determine if m is an element of M. The worst-case computational complexity of each algorithm is bounded by the number of linear programs necessary to compute.

Rachell, Traxon↗

Designing the United States' initial 'Deep-Space Networks' - Choices for the Pioneer lunar-probe attempts of 1958-59

The paper describes two separate networks for ground-support stations, designed, respectively, by the Space Technology Laboratories (STL) and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), to support the series of early Pioneer lunar-probe attempts. Particular attention is given to the characteristics of an ideal ground-support station and to the criteria used for the selection of the antenna, the antenna station site, and the frequency for the STL and JPL networks.

Waff, Craig B.↗

Monte Carlo calculations of diatomic molecule gas flows including rotational mode excitation

The direct simulation Monte Carlo method was used to solve the Boltzmann equation for flows of an internally excited nonequilibrium gas, namely, of rotationally excited homonuclear diatomic nitrogen. The semi-classical transition probability model of Itikawa was investigated for its ability to simulate flow fields far from equilibrium. The behavior of diatomic nitrogen was examined for several different nonequilibrium initial states that are subjected to uniform mean flow without boundary interactions. A sample of 1000 model molecules was observed as the gas relaxed to a steady state starting from three specified initial states. The initial states considered are: (1) complete equilibrium, (2) nonequilibrium, equipartition (all rotational energy states are assigned the mean energy level obtained at equilibrium with a Boltzmann distribution at the translational temperature), and (3) nonequipartition (the mean rotational energy is different from the equilibrium mean value with respect to the translational energy states). In all cases investigated the present model satisfactorily simulated the principal features of the relaxation effects in nonequilibrium flow of diatomic molecules.

Yoshikawa, K. K.↗