Bayesian Inference and Measures of Information for Persistent Homology
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Datta, Esha↗
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Multiple social platforms reveal actionable signals for software vulnerability awareness: A study of GitHub, Twitter and Reddit
Software vulnerabilities are flaws in computer systems that leave users open to attack. In many cases, these vulnerabilities go unnoticed and remain unresolved in codebases. Thus, awareness of software vulnerabilities among the public is crucial to ensure effective cybersecurity practices, the development of high quality software, and ultimately national security. This awareness can be better understood by studying the spread and evolution of software vulnerability discussions in online communities. This work is the first to evaluate and contrast how discussions about software vulnerabilities spread on three social platforms -- Twitter, GitHub, and Reddit. To lay the groundwork, we showcase a novel fundamental framework for measuring information spread that identifies the spread mechanisms and observables across platforms, the units of information, and the groups of measurements that can be applied to focus on a specific phenomena e.g., information cascades. We then analyze and contrast social network topologies for three example social networks and measure the scale and speed of the spread of discussion of specific vulnerabilities to understand how far and how widely they spread, how many users participate in discussions, and the duration of their spread. To demonstrate the awareness of more impactful software vulnerabilities, a subset of our analysis focuses on vulnerabilities targeted during recent major cyber attacks as well as vulnerabilities exploited by advanced persistent threat groups. We discover that usually, vulnerability discussions start on GitHub, before occurring on Twitter and Reddit. While studying how some user-level and content-level characteristics influence vulnerability spread, we observe that Twitter discussions started by users predicted to be humans have larger size, breadth, depth, adoption rate, lifetime, and structural virality compared to those started by users predicted to be bots. On Reddit, we contrast the differences in thread structure that originate from posts with positive, negative and neutral polarity. We find that posts that are positive have larger, deeper and wider discussions compared to negative and neutral posts. We anticipate the results of our analysis to not only increase the understanding of software vulnerability awareness but also inform models for simulating information spread across multiple social environments online.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Measure this, not that: Optimizing the cost and model-based information content of measurements
Model-based design of experiments (MBDoE) is a powerful framework for selecting and calibrating science-based mathematical models from data. Here, this work extends popular MBDoE workflows by proposing a convex mixed integer (non)linear programming (MINLP) to optimize the selection of measurements. The solver MindtPy is modified to support calculating the D-optimality objective and its gradient via an external package, scipy, using the grey-box module in Pyomo. The new approach is demonstrated in two case studies: estimating highly correlated kinetics from a batch reactor and estimating transport parameters in a large-scale rotary packed bed for CO 2 capture. Both case studies show how examining the Pareto optimal trade-offs between information content measured by A- and D-optimality versus measurement budget offers practical guidance for selecting measurements for scientific experiments.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Ambient Synchrophasor Measurement Based System Inertia Estimation
This paper develops an algorithm to estimate the system inertia value based on ambient synchrophasor measurement. Informative features are extracted from ambient synchrophasor measurements for machine-learning-based inertia estimation. Besides ambient synchrophasor measurements of FNET/GridEye, other available data relevant to inertia (such as weather and system load data) are also used to improve the inertia estimation accuracy. Then a machine learning algorithm to estimate system inertia is developed. A test dataset including ambient synchrophasor data from FNET/GridEye measurements and the WECC system inertia data from NERC is used to evaluate the performance of the developed inertia estimation method. The average and maximum estimation errors of the developed inertia estimation method is lower than 5% and 10%, respectively. This accuracy is higher than reported accuracy values in existing literature.
CUI, YI↗
Templates of expected measurement uncertainties for prompt fission neutron spectra
In this paper, we provide templates of uncertainty sources expected to appear for three measurement types of prompt fission neutron spectra (PFNS): (1) shape measurements, (2) clean-ratio shape, that is the monitor PFNS are measured in nearly exactly the same surrounding as the PFNS of interest, and (3) indirect ratios, where the detector efficiency is backed out from PFNS monitor measurements. Information is also listed that is needed to faithfully include PFNS in nuclear data evaluations to guide experimenters on how to best report data and metadata for their measurements. These templates also suggest a typical range of pertinent uncertainty values and their correlations in case realistic uncertainties cannot be estimated from information on the measurement itself. The templates were based on a literature review, information found in EXFOR for 252 Cf, 235, 238 U, and 239 Pu PFNS, and enhanced by expertise from experimenters contributing to these PFNS templates.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Multi-Probe Radiography: For 2035 and Beyond
The Multi-Probe Radiography Project is investigating the use of multiple species of probe beams to provide more information from a radiography. Contextual radiographic, source, and measurements information is being provided through a series of four workshops at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The third workshop on Accelerator and Pulsed Power Technology is summarized in this report. The state of the large NNSA facilities such as Scorpius, DARHT, pRad, and Cygnus are presented. Future enhancements and innovative upgrades are also discussed.
43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
End-to-End Simulations of a 3.4-Meter Detector Wall for Neutron-Diagnosed Subcritical Experiments
The Nevada National Security Site, together with Los Alamos National Laboratory and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, is developing a novel diagnostic to measure the reactivity of subcritical experiments. This capability is known as neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiments. The decay of the fission gamma rays from the neutron-interrogated subcritical experiment is measured as a function of time with a large (~3-meter diameter) detector wall consisting of 151 individual detector pixels. The data from this current mode measurement inform the neutron multiplication factor, keff, and thus the relative reactivity of the subcritical experiment. The Nevada National Security Site developed the Gamma Array Simulation Toolkit initially to help inform the design of the individual detector pixels and the 3.4-meter diameter detector wall to be fielded as part of neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiments. This toolkit is now being used to simulate and predict the performance of the final design of the individual detector pixels and the aggregate detector wall. Additionally, key detector characteristics evaluated from these simulations include impulse response, pulse height spectrum, number of photoelectrons per MeV, detector efficiency, and cross talk between detector pixels. Collectively, the results of these simulations inform how well the fission gamma ray die-off distribution from a neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiment measurement can be resolved. This is critical to determining the relative reactivity of the experiment. Furthermore, the Gamma Array Simulation Toolkit can be used to aid in the analysis of the experimental data from a neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiment measurement once the simulation has been benchmarked.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
End-to-End Simulations of a 3.4-Meter Detector Wall for Neutron-Diagnosed Subcritical Experiments
The Nevada National Security Site, together with Los Alamos National Laboratory and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, is developing a novel diagnostic to measure the reactivity of subcritical experiments. This capability is known as neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiments. The decay of the fission gamma rays from the neutron-interrogated subcritical experiment is measured as a function of time with a large (~3-meter diameter) detector wall consisting of 151 individual detector pixels. The data from this current mode measurement inform the neutron multiplication factor, keff, and thus the relative reactivity of the subcritical experiment. The Nevada National Security Site developed the Gamma Array Simulation Toolkit initially to help inform the design of the individual detector pixels and the 3.4-meter diameter detector wall to be fielded as part of neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiments. This toolkit is now being used to simulate and predict the performance of the final design of the individual detector pixels and the aggregate detector wall. Key detector characteristics evaluated from these simulations include impulse response, pulse height spectrum, number of photoelectrons per MeV, detector efficiency, and cross talk between detector pixels. Collectively, the results of these simulations inform how well the fission gamma ray die-off distribution from a neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiment measurement can be resolved. This is critical to determining the relative reactivity of the experiment. Furthermore, the Gamma Array Simulation Toolkit can be used to aid in the analysis of the experimental data from a neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiment measurement once the simulation has been benchmarked.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
End-to-End Simulations of a 3.4-Meter Detector Wall for Neutron-Diagnosed Subcritical Experiments
The Nevada National Security Site, together with Los Alamos National Laboratory and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, is developing a novel diagnostic to measure the reactivity of subcritical experiments. This capability is known as neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiments. The decay of the fission gamma rays from the neutron-interrogated subcritical experiment is measured as a function of time with a large (~3-meter diameter) detector wall consisting of 151 individual detector pixels. The data from this current mode measurement inform the neutron multiplication factor, keff, and thus the relative reactivity of the subcritical experiment. The Nevada National Security Site developed the Gamma Array Simulation Toolkit initially to help inform the design of the individual detector pixels and the 3.4-meter diameter detector wall to be fielded as part of neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiments. This toolkit is now being used to simulate and predict the performance of the final design of the individual detector pixels and the aggregate detector wall. Key detector characteristics evaluated from these simulations include impulse response, pulse height spectrum, number of photoelectrons per MeV, detector efficiency, and cross talk between detector pixels. Collectively, the results of these simulations inform how well the fission gamma ray die-off distribution from a neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiment measurement can be resolved. This is critical to determining the relative reactivity of the experiment. Furthermore, the Gamma Array Simulation Toolkit can be used to aid in the analysis of the experimental data from a neutrondiagnosed subcritical experiment measurement once the simulation has been benchmarked.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
X-ray and γ-ray beam interstellar communication and implications for SETI
The possibility of detecting artificial signals transmitted by alien civilizations via collimated X-ray or gamma-ray beams is investigated. The prospect of using such beams for human communication within the solar system and beyond is also discussed. Detector responses were simulated for input signals and analyzed using relative entropy. For simplicity, all signals were assumed to use on-off keying (OOK) modulation. “Real” signals were generated by taking digital files and sequentially feeding their raw binary data to the detector simulator, the resulting normalized information content of the detector signals was plotted and compared to random noise signals. Since jpeg files contain compressed information, these served as a proxy for artificial alien signals. This showed that there is a clear difference in measured information content between natural and artificial signals, even with relatively poor time resolution in the detector causing the signals to be smeared (dead-time/rise-time intervals many times longer than the duration between signal pulses). It was found that so long as the signal lasts for at least several rise-time/dead-time intervals, the distinction between random and artificial signals is obvious. A space-telescope with high time resolution for searching for such signals is briefly described and its basic requirements are outlined.
43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
Spectroscopic analysis of Pu-bearing compounds in double-walled cells
Spectroscopic analysis of radiological materials has been historically limited to radiological labs with older or less advanced scientific instrumentation. The development of double-walled cells (DWCs) at the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has enabled Pu-bearing compounds to be removed from radiological laboratories and studied in our radiologically clean spectroscopy laboratory with state-of-the-art instrumentation. In this manuscript, we discuss the contributions of DWCs that have allowed the application of Raman spectroscopy, diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy (DRIFTS), diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS) in the shortwave infrared, and gamma spectroscopy at SRNL. Significant advances have been made in the understanding of the thermal decomposition of Pu(III) and Pu(IV) oxalates, alpha-induced damage to the PuO 2 crystal lattice, and the effect of calcination temperatures on the quality of PuO 2 . These techniques have enabled methods to conduct PuO 2 age dating since last calcination and estimate the calcination temperature with Raman spectroscopy and DRS. Additional spectroscopic information measured with DRIFTS has enabled the observation of the evolution of carbon species with calcination temperature, while gamma spectroscopy provides information on age dating since last purification.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Luminescence and Scintillation in the Niobium Doped Oxyfluoride Rb4Ge5O9F6:Nb
A new niobium-doped inorganic scintillating oxyfluoride, Rb4Ge5O9F6:Nb, was synthesized in single crystal form by high-temperature flux growth. The host structure, Rb4Ge5O9F6, crystallizes in the orthorhombic space group Pbcn with lattice parameters a = 6.98430(10) Å, b = 11.7265(2) Å, and c = 19.2732(3) Å, consisting of germanium oxyfluoride layers made up of Ge3O9 units connected by GeO3F3 octahedra. In its pure form, Rb4Ge5O9F6 shows neither luminescence nor scintillation but when doped with niobium, Rb4Ge5O9F6:Nb exhibits bright blue luminescence and scintillation. The isostructural doped structure, Rb4Ge5O9F6:Nb, crystallizes in the orthorhombic space group Pbcn with lattice parameters a = 6.9960(3) Å, b = 11.7464(6) Å, and c = 19.3341(9) Å. X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) and extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) measurements suggest that the niobium is located in an octahedral coordination environment. Optical measurements inform us that the niobium dopant acts as the activator. The synthesis, structure, and optical properties are reported, including radioluminescence (RL) measurements under X-ray irradiation.
Carone, Darren (ORCID:0000000164014098)↗
Improved Bayesian regularization of inverse problems in vibrations and acoustics using noise-only measurements
Here, this paper studies Tikhonov regularization (ridge regression) parameter selection for problems in vibrations and acoustics. The selection method is based on a popular Bayesian method, but it incorporates measurements of sensor noise. The regularization parameter is closely related to the ratio of system input energy to noise energy, so noise measurements inform the inference procedure and improve parameter identification. In cases where standard Bayesian regularization identifies zero as the optimal regularization parameter, noise measurements guarantee a unique nonzero optimum. Sufficient theoretical criteria are developed for this guarantee. The method is verified in even-determined and under-determined configurations in an acoustic source localization simulation and a vibration load identification experiment. It is shown to yield significant improvements over existing empirical Bayesian regularization. Improvements are larger in the even-determined case and smaller in the under-determined case, wherein the inverse solution is less sensitive to the regularization parameter.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Simons Observatory: characterizing the Large Aperture Telescope Receiver with radio holography
Here, we present near-field radio holography measurements of the Simons Observatory Large Aperture Telescope Receiver optics. These measurements demonstrate that radio holography of complex millimeter-wave optical systems comprising cryogenic lenses, filters, and feed horns can provide detailed characterization of wave propagation before deployment. We used the measured amplitude and phase, at 4 K, of the receiver near-field beam pattern to predict two key performance parameters: 1) the amount of scattered light that will spill past the telescope to 300 K and 2) the beam pattern expected from the receiver when fielded on the telescope. These cryogenic measurements informed the removal of a filter, which led to improved optical efficiency and reduced sidelobes at the exit of the receiver. Holography measurements of this system suggest that the spilled power past the telescope mirrors will be less than 1%, and the main beam with its near sidelobes are consistent with the nominal telescope design. This is the first time such parameters have been confirmed in the lab prior to deployment of a new receiver. This approach is broadly applicable to millimeter and submillimeter instruments.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Spectroscopic Analysis of Pu-bearing Compounds in Double-Walled Cells
Spectroscopic analysis of radiological materials has been historically limited to radiological labs with 11 older or less advanced scientific instrumentation. The development of double-walled cells (DWCs) at 12 the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has enabled Pu-bearing compounds to be removed 13 from radiological laboratories and studied in our radiologically clean spectroscopy lab with state-of14 the-art instrumentation. In this manuscript, we discuss the contributions of DWCs that have allowed 15 the application of Raman spectroscopy, diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy 16 (DRIFTS), diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS) in the shortwave infrared, and gamma 17 spectroscopy at SRNL. Significant advances have been made in the understanding of thermal 18 decomposition of Pu(III) and Pu(IV) oxalates, the alpha-induced damage to the PuO2 crystal lattice, 19 and the effect of calcination temperatures to the quality of PuO2. These techniques have enabled 20 methods to conduct PuO2 age dating since last calcination and estimate the calcination temperature 21 with Raman and DRS. Additional spectroscopic information measured with DRIFTS has provided a 22 path to observe the evolution of carbon species with calcination temperature while gamma 23 spectroscopy provides information on age dating since last purification.
Villa-Aleman, Eliel↗
Measure This, Not That: Pareto Optimal Trade-Offs between Model-Based Information Content and Measurements Cost
The slides present a novel convex optimization formulation to compute the best set of measurements for multi-response dynamical systems with asynchronous time steps that maximize the Fisher information content subject to budget constraints. The trace (A-optimality) or determinant (D-optimality) of the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) quantifies the information content. The framework supports arbitrary (positive semi-definite) variance and covariances between every pair of responses and their time steps.
Wang, Jialu↗
Time Series Classification for Locating Forced Oscillation Sources
Here, this article presents a machine learning based time-series classification method for using synchrophasor measurements to locate the source of forced oscillation (FO) for fast disturbance removal. First, multivariate time series (MTS) matrices are constructed by the most informative measurements selected by sequential feature selection from each power plant. Then, the Mahalanobis matrix is trained such that the Mahalanobis distance between the MTSs from the same class (i.e., with the same FO source location) are minimized and from different classes (i.e., with different FO source locations) are maximized. This allows MTSs to be classified by classifiers with class membership corresponding to the location of each FO source. To meet the runtime requirements of online matching, class templates are constructed to reduce data size and improve matching efficiency. To account for uncertainty in identifying the exact beginning of an FO event, dynamic time warping is used to align the out-of-sync MTSs. IEEE 39bus and WECC 179bus systems are used for algorithm development and validation. Simulation results demonstrate that the algorithm meets online operation runtime requirement with high accuracy using misaligned data sets.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Characterization of the Fast-Neutron Irradiator and the Fast-Flux Tube Irradiation Fixtures at the Pennsylvania State Breazeale Reactor
Accurate knowledge of the neutron spectrum at a nuclear research reactor is a prerequisite for planning irradiation experiments, as well as for evaluating irradiation exposure results. The neutron-flux spectrum in the fast-neutron irradiator (FNI) and the fast-flux tube (FFT) irradiation fixtures at the Pennsylvania State Breazeale Reactor (PSBR) were characterized using the multi-foil neutron activation method. These irradiation fixtures make use of graded shielding to produce unique neutron fields. Multiple foil sets were irradiated in the fixtures with different exposure times and reactor powers to understand the stability over a wide range of operating conditions. Measured results were evaluated against a MCNP6 simulation to produce a measurement-informed neutron flux-energy spectrum for each fixture using STAYSL_PNNL. Simulated estimates of the FNI fixture, a newer fixture (~25 years old), demonstrated excellent agreement with measured results; the FFT did not. Thermal neutron measurements from the FFT suggest there is additional thermal leakage not captured in the simulation model. In conclusion, possible explanations for the discrepancy include burn-out or degradation (i.e., micro-cracking, gaps, etc.) in the boral and cadmium liners over the lifetime of the fixture (~40 years old).
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗