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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A stochastic covariance shrinkage approach to particle rejuvenation in the ensemble transform particle filter

Rejuvenation in particle filters is necessary to prevent the collapse of the weights when the number of particles is insufficient to properly sample the high-probability regions of the state space. Rejuvenation is often implemented in a heuristic manner by the addition of random noise that widens the support of the ensemble. This work aims at improving canonical rejuvenation methodology by the introduction of additional prior information obtained from climatological samples; the dynamical particles used for importance sampling are augmented with samples obtained from stochastic covariance shrinkage. A localized variant of the proposed method is developed. Numerical experiments with the Lorenz '63 model show that modified filters significantly improve the analyses for low dynamical ensemble sizes. Furthermore, localization experiments with the Lorenz '96 model show that the proposed methodology is extendable to larger systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Trepanning Graphite Samples at a Shutdown Magnox Reactor: A US-UK Joint Exercise for Nuclear Verification

In April 2022, a team sponsored by the US DOE Office of Nuclear Verification (ONV) shipped trepanning equipment to the nuclear power station at Trawsfynydd, Wales, UK to collect samples from the graphite moderator of Reactor 1. The sampling campaign to collect 48 graphite samples was completed in five weeks beginning July 11. Half the samples will be analyzed in the US to determine the total energy production of the facility. The other half will be analyzed by Magnox Ltd. to support decisions for options for the ultimate decommissioning path for the facility. This paper provides a description of the equipment and the operations required to trepan, collect, and package the samples while controlling the small amounts of radioactive graphite dust entrained on and within the tool. The most important sample parameter needed is the precise location of the sample, to within ±6 mm in a fuel channel, while the tool is deployed to between 12 and 20 meters below the operations floor; our means of achieving this precision is given.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2022

CAMERA: A method for cost-aware, adaptive, multifidelity, efficient reliability analysis

Estimating probability of failure in aerospace systems is a critical requirement for flight certification and qualification. Failure probability estimation involves resolving tails of probability distributions, and Monte Carlo sampling methods are intractable when expensive high-fidelity simulations have to be queried. Here, we propose a method to use models of multiple fidelities that trade accuracy for computational efficiency. Specifically, we propose the use of multifidelity Gaussian process models to efficiently fuse models at multiple fidelity, thereby offering a cheap surrogate model that emulates the original model at all fidelities. Furthermore, we propose a novel sequential acquisition function based experiment design framework that can automatically select samples from appropriate fidelity models to make predictions about quantities of interest at the highest fidelity. We use our proposed approach in an importance sampling setting and demonstrate our method on the failure level set and probability estimation on synthetic test functions and two real-world applications, namely, the reliability analysis of a gas turbine engine blade using a finite element method and a transonic aerodynamic wing test case using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We show that our method predicts the failure boundary and probability more accurately and at a fraction of the computational cost compared with using just a single expensive high-fidelity model. Finally, we show that our sequential approach is guaranteed to asymptotically converge to the true failure boundary with high probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Persistent Sampling: Enhancing the Efficiency of Sequential Monte Carlo

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an extension of SMC that systematically retains and reuses particles from all prior iterations to construct a growing, weighted ensemble. By leveraging multiple importance sampling and resampling from a mixture of historical distributions, PS mitigates the need for excessively large particle counts, directly addressing key limitations of SMC such as particle impoverishment and mode collapse. Crucially, PS achieves this without additional likelihood evaluations-weights for persistent particles are computed using cached likelihood values. This framework not only yields more accurate posterior approximations but also produces marginal likelihood estimates with significantly lower variance, enhancing reliability in model comparison. Furthermore, the persistent ensemble enables efficient adaptation of transition kernels by leveraging a larger, decorrelated particle pool. Experiments on high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures, hierarchical models, and non-convex targets demonstrate that PS consistently outperforms standard SMC and related variants, including recycled and waste-free SMC, achieving substantial reductions in mean squared error for posterior expectations and evidence estimates, all at reduced computational cost. PS thus establishes itself as a robust, scalable, and efficient alternative for complex Bayesian inference tasks.

Karamanis, Minas↗
DOE OSTI2023

Leverage Score Sampling for Parametric PDEs (Final Technical Report)

This final technical report summarizes the accomplishments of work performed under DOE Office of Science Award DE-SC0022266, which is titled “Leverage Score Sampling for Parametric PDEs”. The goal of the project was to extend methods from Randomized Numerical Linear Algebra (RandNLA) to tackle central computational challenges in model order reduction and uncertainty quantification (UQ) for parametric partial differential equations (PDEs). In particular, we sought to use importance sampling methods originally developed for RandNLA to develop sample efficient active learning algorithms for approximating high-dimensional scalar functions, e.g. by polynomials, Gaussian process models, and simple neural networks. Such methods can be immediately applied to developing surrogate models or to approximating quantity of interest (QoI) surfaces. In the context of PDEs, each sample used for learning equates to the solution of the differential equation for a particular set of parameters, so sample efficiency translates to improved computational efficiency for a variety of downstream tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive, Active Learning, and Multifidelity Monte Carlo Methods in the MOOSE Stochastic Tools Module

MOOSE is an open-source computational platform for constructing multi-physics models and executing them in a massively parallel fashion. It has a stochastic tools module (STM) for forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ) and surrogate modeling. This presentation details some recent developments to the STM with respect to the implementation of adaptive, active learning, and multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for forward UQ of computational models. Specifically, the adaptive Monte Carlo methods include Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-driven algorithms like adaptive importance sampling and parallelized subset simulation for statistical QoI estimation, rare events analysis, and stochastic gradient-free optimization. The active learning methods include Gaussian Process (GP) surrogates and their training via Adam optimization, design of acquisition functions, and integration with samplers like Monte Carlo, adaptive importance, and parallelized subset simulation. These active learning methods are also designed to work in a batch mode, wherein, the required calls to the full computational model are executed in parallel whenever a user-specified batch size is met. The multifidelity methods in STM are broadly divided into two categories: hierarchical, where a defined hierarchy exists among the low-fidelity models, and peer, where all the low-fidelity models are treated equally. A GP surrogate is used to learn the differences between the low- and high-fidelity models in both multifidelity categories, and acquisition functions from the active learning classes are used to decide whether to rely on a low-fidelity model or call the expensive high-fidelity model. Alongside the software description and usage, applications are also presented to nuclear engineering computational models including a TRISO nuclear fuel particle, a reactor pressure vessel, and a heat-pipe microreactor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic economic dispatch of wind power under uncertainty using clustering-based extreme scenarios

Operation of power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy sources requires tools for robust decision making under uncertainty. Stochastic economic dispatch and stochastic unit commitment are effective techniques for planning and operation under uncertainty, whose effectiveness depends on the cardinality and quality of the scenario set. Here, this article proposes a machine learning method using -means clustering for capturing relevant physical information from a large population of analog scenarios. Extreme scenario samples drawn from the clusters are used in a two-stage stochastic economic dispatch computation. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is assessed on a synthetic 200-bus system with a geographic footprint over Illinois, USA for four months from each season of WIND Toolkit data. The combination of -means clustering with importance sampling is shown to reduce the total operational cost by over 43% compared to sampling from populations based on heuristic clustering-based methods. Additionally, the variability in the mean cost is about 56% lower than the variability using Monte Carlo sampling. Moreover, the operational cost with the presented approach is shown to be close to the cost calculated based on a hindsight exact wind profile, signifying a highly accurate quantification of wind uncertainty by the presented -means clustering based sampling method.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive Design of Hybrid Improper Ferroelectric Double Perovskite Oxides

The computational design of suitable multiferroic double perovskite oxides requires finding materials that exhibit sizable polarization, magnetization, and coupling between them. Oxides with the chemical formula of AA'BB'O 6 with building blocks of ABO 3 single perovskite oxides in centrosymmetric Pnma symmetry are strong candidates that have been reported to satisfy such criteria. The system lowers to noncentrosymmetric, polar P2 1 symmetry if A/A' layered and B/B' rocksalt cation orderings are imposed. A detailed compositional search over a variety of chemical spaces followed by evaluating their polarization may lead to the identification of more of these compounds with ferroelectric ordering. The standard density functional theory practices to estimate polarization within the Berry phase formalism require the systems to be perfectly insulating. The number of compounds that can be evaluated using this method is therefore limited. In this work, we introduce a predictive learning strategy based on importance sampling to build a series of machine learning models using results from first-principles simulations to predict polarization and the corresponding switching barrier. The geometry-driven features related to charge states and cationic radii play key roles in predicting the switching barrier with complementary contributions from the key structural mode-based order parameters. These modes become important to draw reasonable predictions of polarization components from machine learning models. In conclusion, our predictive models identify candidates with high polarizations and low switching barriers from a pool of double perovskite oxides, suitable for future investigation for their potential applications in spintronic devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Validating sequential Monte Carlo for gravitational-wave inference

Nested sampling (NS) is the preferred stochastic sampling algorithm for gravitational-wave inference for compact binary coalescences. It can handle the complex nature of the gravitational-wave likelihood surface and provides an estimate of the Bayesian model evidence. However, there is another class of algorithms that meets the same requirements, but has not been used for gravitational-wave analyses: sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), an extension of importance sampling that maps samples from an initial density to a target density via a series of intermediate densities. In this work, we validate a type of SMC algorithm, called persistent sampling (PS), for gravitational-wave inference. We consider a range of different scenarios including binary black holes and binary neutron stars and real and simulated data and show that PS produces results that are consistent with NS whilst being, on average, 2 times more efficient and 2.74 times faster. This demonstrates that PS is a viable alternative to NS that should be considered for future gravitational-wave analyses.

black hole mergers↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bilayer Hubbard model: Analysis based on the fermionic sign problem

The bilayer Hubbard model describes the antiferromagnet to spin singlet transition and, potentially, aspects of the physics of unconventional superconductors. Despite these important applications, significant aspects of its phase diagram in the interplane hopping t ⊥ versus on-site interaction U parameter space, at half filling, are largely in disagreement. Here we provide an analysis making use of the average sign of weights over the course of the importance sampling in quantum Monte Carlo simulations to resolve several central open questions. Specifically, this metric of the weights clarifies the finite-sized metallic regimes at small U. Furthermore, at strong interactions, it points to the existence of a crossover from a correlated to uncorrelated band insulator not yet explored in a variety of existing, unbiased numerical methods. Our paper demonstrates the versatility of using properties of the weights in quantum Monte Carlo simulations to reveal important physical characteristics of the models under study.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Redshift Calibration of the MagLim++ Lens Sample

In this work, we derive and calibrate the redshift distribution of the MagLim++ lens galaxy sample used in the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6) 3x2pt cosmology analysis. The 3x2pt analysis combines galaxy clustering from the lens galaxy sample and weak gravitational lensing. The redshift distributions are inferred using the SOMPZ method - a Self-Organizing Map framework that combines deep-field multi-band photometry, wide-field data, and a synthetic source injection (Balrog) catalog. Key improvements over the DES Year 3 (Y3) calibration include a noise-weighted SOM metric, an expanded Balrog catalogue, and an improved scheme for propagating systematic uncertainties, which allows us to generate O($10^8$) redshift realizations that collectively span the dominant sources of uncertainty. These realizations are then combined with independent clustering-redshift measurements via importance sampling. The resulting calibration achieves typical uncertainties on the mean redshift of 1-2%, corresponding to a 20-30% average reduction relative to DES Y3. We compress the $n(z)$ uncertainties into a small number of orthogonal modes for use in cosmological inference. Marginalizing over these modes leads to only a minor degradation in cosmological constraints. This analysis establishes the MagLim++ sample as a robust lens sample for precision cosmology with DES Y6 and provides a scalable framework for future surveys.

Giannini, G. [Chicago U., Astron. Astrophys. Ctr.;↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 results: Redshift calibration of the MagLim++ lens sample

In this work, we derive and calibrate the redshift distribution of the MagLim++ lens galaxy sample used in the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6) 3 x 2pt cosmology analysis. The 3 x 2pt analysis combines galaxy clustering from the lens galaxy sample and weak gravitational lensing. The redshift distributions are inferred using the SOMPZ method - a Self-Organizing Map framework that combines deep-field multi-band photometry, wide-field data, and a synthetic source injection ( B alrog) catalog. Key improvements over the DES Year 3 (Y3) calibration include a noise-weighted SOM metric, an expanded Balrog catalogue, and an improved scheme for propagating systematic uncertainties, which allows us to generate O(10 8 ) redshift realizations that collectively span the dominant sources of uncertainty. These realizations are then combined with independent clustering-redshift measurements via importance sampling. The resulting calibration achieves typical uncertainties on the mean redshift of 1-2%, corresponding to a 20-30% average reduction relative to DES Y3. We compress the n(z) uncertainties into a small number of orthogonal modes for use in cosmological inference. Marginalizing over these modes leads to only a minor degradation in cosmological constraints. Here, this analysis establishes the MagLim++ sample as a robust lens sample for precision cosmology with DES Y6 and provides a scalable framework for future surveys.

dark energy↗
DOE OSTI2023

Removal of fission product tellurium and iodine from recently irradiated HEU using copper metal

Gamma detection of select fission products or activation products such as 153 Sm and 239 Np in a fission sample is difficult due to gamma interferences from radiotellurium and radioiodine. To aid in the detection of these difficult-to-detect nuclides, the radiotellurium and radioiodine were removed using Cu metal turnings. This method is highly effective at the removal of the interfering radionuclides removing > 98% of the radiotellurium and radioiodine. A mechanistic study was conducted. Determining the deposition mechanism, using a number of techniques including XANES and electrochemistry providing an understanding of the electrochemical path for the Te deposition. Initial work focused on the use of stable Te, further expanding into activated TeO 2 , and a fresh fission sample. Importantly, this method presents a rapid method for the direct detection of select fission products that could have a significant impact on nuclear related fields including nuclear forensics.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2022

Photon detector response function methodology using MCNP and shift hybrid radiation transport code for wide-area contamination assay applications

Here, radiation transport modeling using the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) radiation transport code and Monte Carlo code, Shift, were employed to model detector responses for a variety of wide-area photon contamination scenarios. In this study, 2" × 2" and 3" × 3" cylindrical NaI(Tl) scintillation detector configurations at source detector-distances of 0.5 cm, 1 cm, 2.54 cm, 10 cm, and 30 cm were modeled. Media of soil, concrete, and steel were evaluated for contamination depths ranging from surface to a depth of an infinite thickness in each medium for photon energies ranging from 20 keV to 3 MeV, which correspond to the energies that current detectors can discern. Monoenergetic photon surface contamination detector responses for each of the media, source–detector distances, and detectors were estimated using MCNP v6.2. Shift was harnessed for improved variance reduction of particle transport in highly attenuating media to obtain average cell fluxes in the two MCNP NaI(Tl) scintillation detector configurations. Average cell flux values in Shift were coupled with detector responses from MCNP to convert average cell flux in a void to energy distribution of pulses in the NaI(Tl) scintillation detector crystal of interest. An optimized detector response function methodology was developed by coupling the MCNP radiation transport method with the Consistent Adjoint Driven Importance Sampling (CADIS) hybrid radiation transport method built into Shift to significantly decrease the runtime of thousands of MCNP pulse height simulations. The methodology may be utilized to quickly and accurately facilitate the assessment of a broad range of wide-area environmental contamination assay and decommissioning cleanup applications.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fluctuation cepstral scanning transmission electron microscopy of mixed-phase amorphous materials

Four-dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy (4D-STEM) is a versatile analytical tool for characterizing materials structural properties. However, extending such analysis to disordered materials is challenging, especially in technologically important samples with mixed ordered and disordered phases. Here, in this work, we present a new 4D-STEM method, called fluctuation cepstral STEM (FC-STEM), based on the fluctuation analysis of cepstral transform of diffraction patterns. The peaks in the associated transformation relate to inter-atomic distances in a thin sample. By varying the real-space range over which fluctuations are calculated, distinct ordered and disordered phases can be mapped in a diffractive image reconstruction. We demonstrate the principles of FC-STEM by characterizing a silicon anode, harvested from a cycled lithium-ion battery. A mixture of amorphous and nanocrystalline silicon, graphitic carbon, and electrolyte by-products is identified and mapped. Comparisons with conventional electron imaging and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy show that FC-STEM is highly effective for the structure determination of mixed-phase amorphous materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the Statistical Mechanics of Mass Accommodation at Liquid–Vapor Interfaces

Here we propose a framework for describing the dynamics associated with the adsorption of small molecules to liquid-vapor interfaces using an intermediate resolution between traditional continuum theories that are bereft of molecular detail and molecular dynamics simulations that are replete with them. In particular, we develop an effective single particle equation of motion capable of describing the physical processes that determine thermal and mass accommodation probabilities. The effective equation is parametrized with quantities that vary through space away from the liquid-vapor interface. Of particular importance in describing the early time dynamics is the spatially dependent friction, for which we propose a numerical scheme to evaluate from molecular simulation. Taken together with potentials of mean force computable with importance sampling methods, we illustrate how to compute the mass accommodation coefficient and residence time distribution. Throughout, we highlight the case of ozone adsorption in aqueous solutions and its dependence on electrolyte composition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Supervised learning and the finite-temperature string method for computing committor functions and reaction rates

A central object in the computational studies of rare events is the committor function. Though costly to compute, the committor function encodes complete mechanistic information of the processes involving rare events, including reaction rates and transition-state ensembles. Under the framework of transition path theory, Rotskoff et al. [Proceedings of the 2nd Mathematical and Scientific Machine Learning Conference, Proceedings of Machine Learning Research (PLMR, 2022), Vol. 145, pp. 757–780] proposes an algorithm where a feedback loop couples a neural network that models the committor function with importance sampling, mainly umbrella sampling, which collects data needed for adaptive training. Here, in this work, we show additional modifications are needed to improve the accuracy of the algorithm. The first modification adds elements of supervised learning, which allows the neural network to improve its prediction by fitting to sample-mean estimates of committor values obtained from short molecular dynamics trajectories. The second modification replaces the committor-based umbrella sampling with the finite-temperature string (FTS) method, which enables homogeneous sampling in regions where transition pathways are located. We test our modifications on low-dimensional systems with non-convex potential energy where reference solutions can be found via analytical or finite element methods, and show how combining supervised learning and the FTS method yields accurate computation of committor functions and reaction rates. We also provide an error analysis for algorithms that use the FTS method, using which reaction rates can be accurately estimated during training with a small number of samples. The methods are then applied to a molecular system in which no reference solution is known, where accurate computations of committor functions and reaction rates can still be obtained.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Polariton spectra under the collective coupling regime. II. 2D non-linear spectra

In our previous work [Mondal et al., J. Chem. Phys. 162, 014114 (2025)], we developed several efficient computational approaches to simulate exciton–polariton dynamics described by the Holstein–Tavis–Cummings (HTC) Hamiltonian under the collective coupling regime. Here, we incorporated these strategies into the previously developed Lindblad-partially linearized density matrix (⁠$\mathscr{L}$-PLDM) approach for simulating 2D electronic spectroscopy (2DES) of exciton–polariton under the collective coupling regime. In particular, we apply the efficient quantum dynamics propagation scheme developed in Paper I to both the forward and the backward propagations in the PLDM and develop an efficient importance sampling scheme and graphics processing unit vectorization scheme that allow us to reduce the computational costs from $\mathscr{O}$($\mathscr{K}$ 2 )$\mathscr{O}$(T 3 ) to $\mathscr{O}$($\mathscr{K}$)$\mathscr{O}$(T 0 ) for the 2DES simulation, where $\mathscr{K}$ is the number of states and T is the number of time steps of propagation. As a result, we further simulated the 2DES for an HTC Hamiltonian under the collective coupling regime and analyzed the signal from both rephasing and non-rephasing contributions of the ground state bleaching, excited state emission, and stimulated emission pathways.

2D non-linear spectra↗