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The Violent Early Solar System, as Told by Lunar Sample Geochronology

One of the legacies of the samples collected by the Apollo and Luna missions is the link forged between radiometric ages of rocks and relative ages according to stratigraphic relationships and impact crater size-frequency distributions. Our current understanding of the history of the inner solar system is based on the relative chronology of individual planets, tied to the absolute geochronology of the Moon via these important samples. Sample ages have enabled us to infer that impact-melt breccias from Apollo 14 and 15 record the formation of the Imbrium Basin, those from the highland massifs at Apollo 17 record the age of Serenitatis, those from the KREEP-poor Apollo 16 site record the age of Nectaris, and materials from Luna 24 record the age of Crisium. Ejecta from smaller and younger craters Copernicus and Tycho were sampled at Apollo 12 and 17, respectively, and local craters such as Cone at Apollo 14, and North Ray and South Ray at Apollo 16 were also sampled and ages determined for those events. Much of what we understand about the lunar impact flux is based on these ages. Samples from these nearside locations reveal a preponderance of impact-disturbed or recrystallized ages between 3.75 and 3.95 billion years. Argon and lead loss (and correlated disturbances in the Rb-Sr system) have been attributed to metamorphism of the lunar crust by an enormous number of impacts in a brief pulse of time, called the Lunar Cataclysm or Late Heavy Bombardment. Subsequent high-precision geochronometric analyses of Apollo samples and lunar highlands meteorites show a wider range of ages, but very few older than 4 Ga. The paucity of ancient impact melt rocks has been interpreted to mean that either that most impact basins formed at this time, or that ejecta from the large, near-side, young basins dominates the Apollo samples.

Cohen, Barbara A.↗

The Violent Early Solar System, as Told by Lunar Sample Geochronology

One of the legacies of the samples collected by the Apollo and Luna missions is the link forged between radiometric ages of rocks and relative ages according to stratigraphic relationships and impact crater size-frequency distributions. Our current understanding of the history of the inner solar system is based on the relative chronology of individual planets, tied to the absolute geochronology of the Moon via these important samples. Samples from these nearside locations reveal a preponderance of impact-disturbed or recrystallized ages between 3.75 and 3.95 billion years. Argon and lead loss (and correlated disturbances in the Rb-Sr system) have been attributed to metamorphism of the lunar crust by an enormous number of impacts in a brief pulse of time, called the Lunar Cataclysm or Late Heavy Bombardment. Subsequent high-precision geochronometric analyses of Apollo samples and lunar highlands meteorites show a wider range of ages, but very few older than 4 Ga. The paucity of ancient impact melt rocks has been interpreted to mean that either that most impact basins formed at this time, or that ejecta from the large, near-side, young basins dominates the Apollo samples. Selenochronology is getting more complicated: new results question meaning of sample ages, crater counts, crater production functions, and the solar system itself. Improved geological mapping of lunar geologic units and boundaries using multiple remote sensing datasets. High-resolution image-based crater counting of discrete geologic units and relating them to location. Improved understanding of the regolith thickness and its global variation (GRAIL). Tying the sampling of impact-melt rocks to the lunar impact flux. Using improved techniques (magnetic fields, diffusion studies, isotopic analysis) on existing samples. New sample return from benchmark craters, particularly SPA, which appears in 2013 Decadal Survey.

Cohen, Barbara↗

The Violent Early Solar System, as Told by Sample Geochronology

One of the legacies of the samples collected by the Apollo and Luna missions is the link forged between radiometric ages of rocks and relative ages according to stratigraphic relationships and impact crater size-frequency distributions. Our current understanding of the history of the inner solar system is based on the relative chronology of individual planets, tied to the absolute geochronology of the Moon via these important samples. Sample ages have enabled us to infer that impact-melt breccias from Apollo 14 and 15 record the formation of the Imbrium Basin, those from the highland massifs at Apollo 17 record the age of Serenitatis, those from the KREEP-poor Apollo 16 site record the age of Nectaris, and materials from Luna 24 record the age of Crisium. Ejecta from smaller and younger craters Copernicus and Tycho were sampled at Apollo 12 and 17, respectively, and local craters such as Cone at Apollo 14, and North Ray and South Ray at Apollo 16 were also sampled and ages determined for those events. Much of what we understand about the lunar impact flux is based on these ages. Samples from these nearside locations reveal a preponderance of impact-disturbed or recrystallized ages between 3.75 and 3.95 billion years. Argon and lead loss (and correlated disturbances in the Rb-Sr system) have been attributed to metamorphism of the lunar crust by an enormous number of impacts in a brief pulse of time, called the Lunar Cataclysm or Late Heavy Bombardment. Subsequent high-precision geochronometric analyses of Apollo samples and lunar highlands meteorites show a wider range of ages, but very few older than 4 Ga. The paucity of ancient impact melt rocks has been interpreted to mean that either that most impact basins formed at this time, or that ejecta from the large, near-side, young basins dominates the Apollo samples.

Cohen, Barbara↗

Experimental analysis of computer system dependability

This paper reviews an area which has evolved over the past 15 years: experimental analysis of computer system dependability. Methodologies and advances are discussed for three basic approaches used in the area: simulated fault injection, physical fault injection, and measurement-based analysis. The three approaches are suited, respectively, to dependability evaluation in the three phases of a system's life: design phase, prototype phase, and operational phase. Before the discussion of these phases, several statistical techniques used in the area are introduced. For each phase, a classification of research methods or study topics is outlined, followed by discussion of these methods or topics as well as representative studies. The statistical techniques introduced include the estimation of parameters and confidence intervals, probability distribution characterization, and several multivariate analysis methods. Importance sampling, a statistical technique used to accelerate Monte Carlo simulation, is also introduced. The discussion of simulated fault injection covers electrical-level, logic-level, and function-level fault injection methods as well as representative simulation environments such as FOCUS and DEPEND. The discussion of physical fault injection covers hardware, software, and radiation fault injection methods as well as several software and hybrid tools including FIAT, FERARI, HYBRID, and FINE. The discussion of measurement-based analysis covers measurement and data processing techniques, basic error characterization, dependency analysis, Markov reward modeling, software-dependability, and fault diagnosis. The discussion involves several important issues studies in the area, including fault models, fast simulation techniques, workload/failure dependency, correlated failures, and software fault tolerance.

Iyer, Ravishankar, K.↗

FASTER 3: A generalized-geometry Monte Carlo computer program for the transport of neutrons and gamma rays. Volume 1: Summary report

The theory used in FASTER-III, a Monte Carlo computer program for the transport of neutrons and gamma rays in complex geometries, is outlined. The program includes the treatment of geometric regions bounded by quadratic and quadric surfaces with multiple radiation sources which have specified space, angle, and energy dependence. The program calculates, using importance sampling, the resulting number and energy fluxes at specified point, surface, and volume detectors. It can also calculate minimum weight shield configuration meeting a specified dose rate constraint. Results are presented for sample problems involving primary neutron, and primary and secondary photon, transport in a spherical reactor shield configuration.

Jordan, T. M.↗

FASTER 3: A generalized-geometry Monte Carlo computer program for the transport of neutrons and gamma rays. Volume 2: Users manual

A description of the FASTER-III program for Monte Carlo Carlo calculation of photon and neutron transport in complex geometries is presented. Major revisions include the capability of calculating minimum weight shield configurations for primary and secondary radiation and optimal importance sampling parameters. The program description includes a users manual describing the preparation of input data cards, the printout from a sample problem including the data card images, definitions of Fortran variables, the program logic, and the control cards required to run on the IBM 7094, IBM 360, UNIVAC 1108 and CDC 6600 computers.

Jordan, T. M.↗

MORSE Monte Carlo shielding calculations for the zirconium hydride reference reactor

Verification of DOT-SPACETRAN transport calculations of a lithium hydride and tungsten shield for a SNAP reactor was performed using the MORSE (Monte Carlo) code. Transport of both neutrons and gamma rays was considered. Importance sampling was utilized in the MORSE calculations. Several quantities internal to the shield, as well as dose at several points outside of the configuration, were in satisfactory agreement with the DOT calculations of the same.

Burgart, C. E.↗

Shield weight optimization using Monte Carlo transport calculations

Outlines are given of the theory used in FASTER-3 Monte Carlo computer program for the transport of neutrons and gamma rays in complex geometries. The code has the additional capability of calculating the minimum weight layered unit shield configuration which will meet a specified dose rate constraint. It includes the treatment of geometric regions bounded by quadratic and quardric surfaces with multiple radiation sources which have a specified space, angle, and energy dependence. The program calculates, using importance sampling, the resulting number and energy fluxes at specified point, surface, and volume detectors. Results are presented for sample problems involving primary neutron and both primary and secondary photon transport in a spherical reactor shield configuration. These results include the optimization of the shield configuration.

Jordan, T. M.↗

A survey of the state-of-the-art and focused research in range systems

In this one-year renewal of NASA Contract No. 2-304, basic research, development, and implementation in the areas of modern estimation algorithms and digital communication systems have been performed. In the first area, basic study on the conversion of general classes of practical signal processing algorithms into systolic array algorithms is considered, producing four publications. Also studied were the finite word length effects and convergence rates of lattice algorithms, producing two publications. In the second area of study, the use of efficient importance sampling simulation technique for the evaluation of digital communication system performances were studied, producing two publications.

Kung, Yao↗

Computational methods for probability of instability calculations

This paper summarizes the development of the methods and a computer program to compute the probability of instability of a dynamic system than can be represented by a system of second-order ordinary linear differential equations. Two instability criteria based upon the roots of the characteristics equation or Routh-Hurwitz test functions are investigated. Computational methods based on system reliability analysis methods and importance sampling concepts are proposed to perform efficient probabilistic analysis. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the methods.

Wu, Y.-T.↗

Probabilistic methods for rotordynamics analysis

This paper summarizes the development of the methods and a computer program to compute the probability of instability of dynamic systems that can be represented by a system of second-order ordinary linear differential equations. Two instability criteria based upon the eigenvalues or Routh-Hurwitz test functions are investigated. Computational methods based on a fast probability integration concept and an efficient adaptive importance sampling method are proposed to perform efficient probabilistic analysis. A numerical example is provided to demonstrate the methods.

Wu, Y.-T.↗

Recent developments of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis computer program

The NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis computer program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general purpose structural analysis methods to compute the probabilistic response and the reliability of engineering structures. Uncertainty in loading, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include nonlinear finite element and boundary element methods. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. The scope of the code has recently been expanded to include probabilistic life and fatigue prediction of structures in terms of component and system reliability and risk analysis of structures considering cost of failure. The code is currently being extended to structural reliability considering progressive crack propagation. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the new capabilities.

Millwater, H.↗

Computational methods for efficient structural reliability and reliability sensitivity analysis

This paper presents recent developments in efficient structural reliability analysis methods. The paper proposes an efficient, adaptive importance sampling (AIS) method that can be used to compute reliability and reliability sensitivities. The AIS approach uses a sampling density that is proportional to the joint PDF of the random variables. Starting from an initial approximate failure domain, sampling proceeds adaptively and incrementally with the goal of reaching a sampling domain that is slightly greater than the failure domain to minimize over-sampling in the safe region. Several reliability sensitivity coefficients are proposed that can be computed directly and easily from the above AIS-based failure points. These probability sensitivities can be used for identifying key random variables and for adjusting design to achieve reliability-based objectives. The proposed AIS methodology is demonstrated using a turbine blade reliability analysis problem.

Wu, Y.-T.↗

Parallelizing Timed Petri Net simulations

The possibility of using parallel processing to accelerate the simulation of Timed Petri Nets (TPN's) was studied. It was recognized that complex system development tools often transform system descriptions into TPN's or TPN-like models, which are then simulated to obtain information about system behavior. Viewed this way, it was important that the parallelization of TPN's be as automatic as possible, to admit the possibility of the parallelization being embedded in the system design tool. Later years of the grant were devoted to examining the problem of joint performance and reliability analysis, to explore whether both types of analysis could be accomplished within a single framework. In this final report, the results of our studies are summarized. We believe that the problem of parallelizing TPN's automatically for MIMD architectures has been almost completely solved for a large and important class of problems. Our initial investigations into joint performance/reliability analysis are two-fold; it was shown that Monte Carlo simulation, with importance sampling, offers promise of joint analysis in the context of a single tool, and methods for the parallel simulation of general Continuous Time Markov Chains, a model framework within which joint performance/reliability models can be cast, were developed. However, very much more work is needed to determine the scope and generality of these approaches. The results obtained in our two studies, future directions for this type of work, and a list of publications are included.

Nicol, David M.↗

Simulation modeling for long duration spacecraft control systems

The use of simulation is described and it is contrasted to analytical solution techniques for evaluation of analytical reliability models. The role importance sampling plays in simulation of models of this type was also discussed. The simulator tool used for our analysis is described. Finally, the use of the simulator tool was demonstrated by applying it to evaluate the reliability of a fault tolerant hypercube multiprocessor intended for spacecraft designed for long duration missions. The reliability analysis was used to highlight the advantages and disadvantages offered by simulation over analytical solution of Markovian and non-Markovian reliability models.

Boyd, Mark A.↗

A Unique Style of Alteration of Iron-Nickel Metal in WIS91600, an Unusual C2 Carbonaceous Chondrite

The collection of meteorites from Antarctica has provided an invaluable resource of new materials for study by the scientific community. In addition to exciting finds of new meteorite types (e.g. ALH85085, LEW 85332), these efforts have generated many important samples of existing meteorite groups, particularly C2 chondrites. Studies of these chondrites have broadened our understanding of aqueous alteration and provided a much more comprehensive view of the diversity of alteration in these meteorites. In this study, I report the findings of a petrographic and TEM study of WIS91600, a C2 chondrite that has experienced a highly unusual style of aqueous alteration that has not previously been recognized in C2 chondrites.

Brearley, Adrian J.↗

A Novel Solution-Technique Applied to a Novel WAAS Architecture

The Federal Aviation Administration has embarked on an historic task of modernizing and significantly improving the national air transportation system. One system that uses the Global Positioning System (GPS) to determine aircraft navigational information is called the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS). This paper describes a reliability assessment of one candidate system architecture for the WAAS. A unique aspect of this study regards the modeling and solution of a candidate system that allows a novel cold sparing scheme. The cold spare is a WAAS communications satellite that is fabricated and launched after a predetermined number of orbiting satellite failures have occurred and after some stochastic fabrication time transpires. Because these satellites are complex systems with redundant components, they exhibit an increasing failure rate with a Weibull time to failure distribution. Moreover, the cold spare satellite build-time is Weibull and upon launch is considered to be a good-as-new system with an increasing failure rate and a Weibull time to failure distribution as well. The reliability model for this system is non-Markovian because three distinct system clocks are required: the time to failure of the orbiting satellites, the build time for the cold spare, and the time to failure for the launched spare satellite. A powerful dynamic fault tree modeling notation and Monte Carlo simulation technique with importance sampling are shown to arrive at a reliability prediction for a 10 year mission.

Bavuso, J.↗

Geologic Map of the Meskhent Tessera Quadrangle (V-3), Venus: Evidence for Early Formation and Preservation of Regional Topography

The area of the Meskhent Tessera quadrangle (V-3, 50-75degN, 60-120degE, Fig. 1) corresponds to a transition zone from the uplands of Ishtar Terra to the west to the lowlands of Atalanta Planitia to the east. The topographic configuration, gravity signature, and presence of large tesserae in Ishtar Terra are consistent with extensive areas of thickened crust and tectonically stabilized lithosphere representing ancient and now extinct regimes of mantle convection. The gravity and topographic characteristics of Atalanta Planitia have been cited as evidence for large-scale mantle downwelling. Thus, the region of Meskhent Tessera quadrangle represents an important sample for the study of the regional history of long-wavelength topography (highlands, midlands, and lowlands), interaction between the downwelling and areas of thickened crust/lithosphere, formation of associated tectonic features, and emplacement of volcanic plains.

Ivanov, M. A.↗