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At least 37 records · Page 2

Environmental Thermodynamic Effects on Future Changes of Mesoscale Convective Systems and Isolated Deep Convection Over the US: A Case Study

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and isolated deep convection (IDC) significantly influence local weather conditions and the hydrological cycle across the United States. Their future changes under warming is critical to the society. However, the exact impacts of thermodynamic environmental changes on them are difficult to resolve using climate model simulations which integrate both dynamic and thermodynamic factors. This study explores a theoretical modeling approach to isolate environmental thermodynamic effects on their future changes through a case study. For a 50-day period during the 2020 summer, a pair of convection-permitting model simulations indicate contrasting changes in MCSs and IDC between inland and coastal regions under pseudo global warming. Driven by the thermodynamic environments of these simulations, a single-column parcel model indicates a decrease in the frequency of IDC occurrences, along with increases in duration and precipitation amount under warming, attributable to rising most unstable convective available potential energy (MUCAPE), convective inhibition (MUCIN), and precipitable water (PW). A multi-column parcel model reveals contrasting changes in the frequency and mean area of MCSs between inland and coastal regions, underscoring the increase in mean MUCIN over inland regions and increases in mean MUCAPE and PW over coastal regions. The increase in mean MCS area over inland regions is linked to the interplay between accelerated gust fronts and enhanced subsidence strength, which is further traced to the unchanged mean MUCIN but increased mean MUCAPE in large-scale environments. In conclusion, these case study results suggest a major role of thermodynamic environmental changes in controlling characteristics of MCSs and IDC under warming.

Mesoscale convective system↗

Impacts of Large-Scale Urbanization and Irrigation on Summer Precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States

This study investigates how urbanization and irrigation in the United States east of the Rocky Mountains affect summer precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic region (MAR) using convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations with/without urbanization or irrigation. In this work, a feature tracking algorithm is used to identify precipitation from mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), isolated deep convection (IDC), and non-convective systems (NC). Overall, urbanization suppresses all three types of precipitation in the MAR by reducing water vapor content and convective available potential energy, while irrigation enhances IDC and NC precipitation but suppresses MCS precipitation. Examination of the MCS and IDC initiation locations indicates that irrigation suppresses MAR precipitation that is produced by MCSs initiated in the Great Plains and Midwest (GP) but enhances MAR precipitation from MCSs initiated locally within the region. Irrigation induces a mid-level cyclonic circulation anomaly centering in the Southeast, hindering the eastward propagation and development of MCSs from the GP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Potential Weakening of the June 2012 North American Derecho Under Future Warming Conditions

Derechos produce widespread and long-lived damaging wind, causing severe life and property loss. Here, this study investigates how the June 2012 North American derecho could unfold in the future with global warming. Convection-permitting regional model simulations of the derecho as observed are compared with simulations under a pseudo global warming scenario of the future environments by the end of the 21st century following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5). The control simulations can well reproduce the observed derecho features, including storm evolution, surface wind, and precipitation, except for a 2-hour delay relative to observations. Compared to the control simulations, the derecho shrinks and decays earlier in the future environments, with much less destructive impacts on the Mid-Atlantic coastal areas. The shrinkage of the derecho is attributed to the lower relative humidity on both sides of the derecho propagation path under global warming, which suppresses updraft and strengthens downdraft, impeding the spatial extent of the derecho. The premature decay is due to the intensification of an isolated deep convection (IDC) event that develops ahead of the derecho. The meridional gradient of future warming strengthens the synoptic environments, enhancing convergence in a corridor of higher instability that facilitates intensification and continuous development of the IDC event. By consuming most of the energy and moisture on the derecho propagation path, the IDC hinders the derecho development in the Mid-Atlantic coastal areas. Focusing on a single derecho event, this study reveals how changes in the thermodynamic environment with warming could induce complex changes in the derecho.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Updates to the Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) Model: 2. Path-dependent Travel-time Uncertainty

Abstract The regional seismic travel time (RSTT) model and software were developed to improve travel-time prediction accuracy by accounting for three-dimensional crust and upper mantle structure. Travel-time uncertainty estimates are used in the process of associating seismic phases to events and to accurately calculate location uncertainty bounds (i.e. event location error ellipses). We improve on the current distance-dependent uncertainty parameterization for RSTT using a random effects model to estimate slowness (inverse velocity) uncertainty as a mean squared error for each model parameter. The random effects model separates the error between observed slowness and model predicted slowness into bias and random components. The path-specific travel-time uncertainty is calculated by integrating these mean squared errors along a seismic-phase ray path. We demonstrate that event location error ellipses computed for a 90% coverage ellipse metric (used by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization International Data Centre (IDC)), and using the path-specific travel-time uncertainty approach, are more representative (median 82.5% ellipse percentage) of true location error than error ellipses computed using distance-dependent travel-time uncertainties (median 70.1%). We also demonstrate measurable improvement in location uncertainties using the RSTT method compared to the current station correction approach used at the IDC (median 74.3% coverage ellipse).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Improvements to a class of hybrid methods for radiation transport: Nyström reconstruction and defect correction methods

In this study, two modifications are introduced for improving the accuracy, versatility, and robustness of a class of hybrid methods for radiation transport. In general, such methods are constructed by splitting the radiative flux into collided and uncollided components to which low- and high-resolution angular approximations are applied, respectively. In this work we focus on discrete ordinates discretizations of high and low order. The first modification we introduce changes the way in which the collided component is mapped into the uncollided component at the end of each time step in a simulation. The new mapping is a Nyström-type reconstruction that is applicable to arbitrary discrete ordinates quadratures, is guaranteed to preserve positivity of the solution provided that all ordinate weights are positive, is significantly more accurate than previous methods, and can be readily extended to other discretizations such as moment methods, finite element methods, and diffusion approximations. The second modification leverages integral deferred correction (IDC) to iteratively correct for the splitting error introduced by the inconsistency in angular discretization between the collided and uncollided components, in addition to improving the accuracy of the low-order temporal error that is treated by traditional IDC methods. Numerical tests in one- and two-dimensional geometries are used to demonstrate the increased accuracy and efficiency of the proposed modifications. It is found that the two techniques combined yield methods with solution accuracy and memory requirements comparable to that of monolithic discrete ordinates methods while reducing runtime by as much as a factor of between two and ten, depending on the problem.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Summer Convective Precipitation Changes Over the Great Lakes Region Under a Warming Scenario

To understand future summer precipitation changes over the Great Lakes Region (GLR), we performed an ensemble of regional climate simulations through the Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) approach. We found that different types of convective precipitation respond differently to the PGW signal. Isolated deep convection (IDC), usually concentrated in the southern domain, shows an increase in precipitation to the north of the GLR. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), usually concentrated upwind of the GLR, shift to the downwind region with increased precipitation. Thermodynamic variables such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition energy (CIN) are found to increase across almost the entire studied domain, creating a potential environment more favorable for stronger convection systems and less favorable for weaker ones. Meanwhile, changes in the lifting condensation level (LCL) and level of free convection (LFC) show a strong correlation with variations in convective precipitation, highlighting the significance of these thermodynamic factors in controlling precipitation over the domain. Our results indicate that the decrease in LCL and LCF in areas with increased convective precipitation is mainly due to increased atmospheric moisture. In response to the prescribed warming perturbation, MCSs occur more frequently downwind, while localized IDCs exhibit more intense rain rates, longer durations, and larger rainfall area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seismic Signal Detection on International Monitoring System 3-Component Stations using PhaseNet

In this report we discuss training a deep learning seismic signal detection model on 3-component stations from the International Monitoring System (IMS) using the PhaseNet architecture. Using 14 years of associated signals from the International Data Centre’s (IDC) Late Event Bulletin (LEB), we auto-curated training data consisting of signal windows containing associated arrivals, and noise windows that contain no LEB-associated signals. We trained several models using different waveform window durations (30 seconds and 100 seconds), with and without bandpass filtering. We evaluated the effectiveness of our models using associated signals from the Unconstrained Global Event Bulletin (UGEB) and found that several of our models outperformed the signal detections from the IDC’s Selected Event List 3 (SEL3) arrival table. The SEL3 bulletin evaluated on the UGEB dataset with 100-second waveform windows registered a precision and recall of .15 and .48, respectively, versus .19 and .59 for our filtered-data model. For the 30-second waveform window dataset, the SEL3 bulletin achieved a precision and recall of .31 and .47, respectively, versus .32 and .60 for our filtered-data model. Finally, our models detected signals from all source-to-receiver distances, suggesting it is feasible to use a single PhaseNet model for the IMS network.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A high-resolution database of mesoscale convective systems and isolated deep convection in the United States for 2004 – 2017

The database provides high-resolution (4-km, hourly) information of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and isolated deep convection events (IDC) east of the Rocky Mountains over the contiguous United States from 2004 – 2017. The database contains various characteristics of MCSs and IDC, such as their lifecycle evolutions, lifetimes, spatial coverages, echo-top heights, precipitation features, convective and stratiform separation, convective core features, propagation speed, etc.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A high-resolution database of mesoscale convective systems and isolated deep convection in the United States for 2004 – 2017

The database provides high-resolution (4-km, hourly) information of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and isolated deep convection events (IDC) east of the Rocky Mountains over the contiguous United States from 2004 – 2017. The database contains various characteristics of MCSs and IDC, such as their lifecycle evolutions, lifetimes, spatial coverages, echo-top heights, precipitation features, convective and stratiform separation, convective core features, propagation speed, etc.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Source Term Analysis of Xenon (STAX): An effort focused on differentiating man-made isotope production from nuclear explosions via stack monitoring

An overview of the hardware and software developed for the Source Term Analysis of Xenon (STAX) project is presented which includes the data collection from two stack monitoring systems installed at medical isotope production facilities, infrastructure to transfer data to a central repository, and methods for sharing data from the repository with users. STAX is an experiment to collect radioxenon emission data from industrial nuclear facilities with the goal of developing a better understanding of the global radioxenon background and the effect industrial radioxenon releases have on nuclear explosion monitoring. The final goal of this work is to utilize collected data along with atmospheric transport modeling to calculate the contribution of a peak or set of peaks detected by the International Monitoring System (IMS) to provide desired discriminating information to the International Data Centre (IDC) and National Data Centers (NDCs). Types of data received from the STAX equipment are shown and collected data was used for a case study to predict radioxenon concentrations at two IMS stations closest to the Institute for RadioElements (IRE) in Belgium. The initial evaluation of results indicate that the data is very valuable to the nuclear explosion monitoring community.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Development of an MKID frequency-to-pixel LED mapper for SPT-3G+

SPT-3G+ is the next-generation camera for the South Pole Telescope (SPT). SPT is designed to measure the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and the mm/sub-mm sky. The planned focal plane consists of 34,000 microwave kinetic inductance detectors (MKIDs), divided among three observing bands centered at 220, 285, and 345 GHz. Each readout line is designed to measure 800 MKIDs over a 500 MHz bandwidth, which places stringent constraints on the accuracy of the frequency placement required to limit resonator collisions that reduce the overall detector yield. To meet this constraint, we are developing a two-step process that first optically maps the resonance to a physical pixel location, and then next trims the interdigitated capacitor (IDC) to adjust the resonator frequency. We present a cryogenic LED apparatus operable at 300 mK for the optical illumination of SPT-3G+ detector arrays. We demonstrate integration of the LED controls with the GHz readout electronics (RF-ICE) to take data on an array of prototype SPT-3G+ detectors. We show that this technique is useful for characterizing defects in the resonator frequency across the detector array and will allow for improvements in the detector yield.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The Ristra Project: FY20/21 Milestone Report

The ASC Advanced Technology Development and Mitigation (ATDM) sub-program was established in 2014 to develop new simulation tools operating on exascale-class computers to serve NNSA (see Appendix B). Over the course of ATDM, LANL management have set a strategy for exascale-class application codes that follows two supportive and mutually risk-mitigating paths: evolution for established production integrated design codes (IDCs) – with a strong pedigree within the user community – based upon existing programming paradigms(MPI+X); and a new start ATDM project, Ristra, a high-risk/high-reward push for a next-generation multi-physics, multi-scale simulation toolkit based on emerging advanced programming systems(with an initial focus on data-flow task-based models exemplified by Legion). The role of Ristra as the high-risk/high-reward path for LANL’s codes was fully consistent with the goals of ATDM as described in Appendix B, in particular its emphasis on evolving ASC capabilities through novel computing programming models and computing technologies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Summary of NDC Capacity Building Workshop and Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) in combination with Data Sharing and Integration Training

The NNSA Seismic Cooperation Program (SCP) sponsored Stephen Myers (LLNL), Michael Begnaud (LANL), Brian Young (SNL) and Istvan Bondar (Research Center for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Hungary) to serve as a presenters/trainers at the “NDC Capacity Building Workshop and Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) in combination with Data Sharing and Integration Training” September 4-8 2022 in Muscat, Oman (See Appendix A for the agenda). The workshop and training (workshop from here forward) was organized by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) Provisional Technical Secretariat (PTS). The first half of the week was devoted to NDC workshop activities, and the second half was devoted to RSTT training. Fifty-five participants from 27 countries and the CTBTO-PTS attended the 5-day workshop (See Appendix B for list of participants and countries of origin). Presentations from the PTS described the International Monitoring System (IMS), International Data Centre (IDC) products, and metrics of regional data utilization. Contributed presentations from each country’s scientists included descriptions of regional and national networks, methods of data analysis, and needs for material and technical assistance. Training included an overview of the RSTT method and instruction on how to locate seismic events with the iLoc program, which utilizes RSTT travel times to reduce bias in event location estimates. Methods of seismic tomography and the need for a high-quality tomographic set, including seismological “ground truth”, were emphasized. Seismological “ground truth” or “GT” is a term that has come to mean both events with known location and events with well-characterized locations that are estimated using seismological data, typically with epicenter accuracy of 5 km or better. Notably, the instructional platform has migrated from UNIX shell scripts to Jupyter Notebooks. Jupyter Notebooks have the advantage being more visually intuitive, including display of graphics within the notebook. Each notebook includes every processing step that participants need to reproduce the entire exercise.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Watchmen 3.0.0 Users Guide: Revision 6

Watchmen is a research software application developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) that incorporates the scientific and operational expertise for reviewing data from treaty monitoring radionuclide stations. The radionuclide stations are part of the International Monitoring System (IMS), a worldwide network to monitor for nuclear explosions. The data the IMS produces are critical to determine if a radionuclide release event is from a nuclear explosion. Stations deliver their measurements and system status to the International Data Centre (IDC), which forwards it via email to all subscribers. Watchmen is capable of processing data from several radioxenon station types.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Watchmen 3.1.0 Users Guide: Revision 7

Watchmen is a research software application developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) that incorporates the scientific and operational expertise for reviewing data from treaty monitoring radionuclide stations. The radionuclide stations are part of the International Monitoring System (IMS), a worldwide network to monitor for nuclear explosions. The data the IMS produces are critical to determine if a radionuclide release event is from a nuclear explosion. Stations deliver their measurements and system status to the International Data Centre (IDC), which forwards it via email to all subscribers. Watchmen is capable of processing data from several radioxenon station types.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Watchmen v3.2.0 User Guide: Revision 8

Watchmen is a research software application developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) that incorporates the scientific and operational expertise for reviewing data from treaty monitoring radionuclide stations. The radionuclide stations are part of the International Monitoring System (IMS), a worldwide network to monitor for nuclear explosions. The data the IMS produces are critical to determine if a radionuclide release event is from a nuclear explosion. Stations deliver their measurements and system status to the International Data Centre (IDC), which forwards it via email to all subscribers. Watchmen is capable of processing data from several radioxenon station types.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Watchmen 3.3.0 User Guide: Revision 9

Watchmen is a research software application developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) that incorporates the scientific and operational expertise for reviewing data from treaty monitoring radionuclide stations. The radionuclide stations are part of the International Monitoring System (IMS), a worldwide network to monitor for nuclear explosions. The data the IMS produces are critical to determine if a radionuclide release event is from a nuclear explosion. Stations deliver their measurements and system status to the International Data Centre (IDC), which forwards it via email to all subscribers. Watchmen is capable of processing data from several radioxenon station types.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Non-Conductor-Contact Surface Wave Reflectometry for Cable Insulation Damage Detection

Here, this paper presents a non-conductor-contact surface wave-based reflectometry technique to detect and locate missing or damaged insulation and/or jacket of electrical cables. The described sensor may be uniquely and practically implemented on live cables as a non-destructive evaluation (NDE) method since it may be applied to the outer insulation/jacket of a cable and requires no direct contact to the conductor. The innovation lies in a high-frequency surface wave launcher that can introduce broadband signals in the GHz frequencies that insure maximum electromagnetic (EM) energy localization within the insulation and/or jacket material. By further processing the reflection data in the frequency domain, the location and severity of insulation damage is detected. Simulated results of thin, thick, short, and long cables show the results expected from small, medium, and large damage regions. For example, the detection of 40 mm-long damage region at 40 m distance on a 50 m long cable (2.44 cm diameter) is demonstrated. Experimental results are presented that validate simulation findings.

Non Destructive Evaluation↗