Neural operators for accelerated uncertainty quantification in ice-sheet modeling
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Perego, Mauro [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-N↗
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Neural operators for accelerating UQ: application to ice-sheet modeling
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Perego, Mauro [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-N↗
Beyond the Stokes approximation: shallow visco-elastic ice-sheet models
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Jeremy N. Bassis↗
The relationship between Uncertainty Quantification and Observations in Ice Sheet Modeling
No abstract provided
Morlighem, Mathieu↗
ISMIP6 Antarctica: A Multi-Model Ensemble of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Evolution Over the 21st Century
Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between -7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica ass change varies between -6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.
Hélène Seroussi↗
Regional Impacts of Ice Sheet Surface Representation Improvements in an Earth System Model
Ice sheet surface conditions and their subsequent impact on surface mass balance play an important role in ice sheet dynamics and ice sheet interaction with the overlying atmosphere and surrounding ocean. The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ecosystem of models and reanalyses model ice sheet and glacier surface mass balance with a moderately complex snow and ice module, including prognostic surface albedo evolution, fractional snow cover, and snowpack hydrology and meltwater retention. With this configuration, Greenland near surface air temperatures and ice sheet melt are well represented in MERRA-2, GMAO’s current atmospheric reanalysis; however, the similarity to observations in some regions is due, in part, to compensating biases in surface energy budget. Recent improvements to GEOS’ cloud microphysics and longwave radiation parameterizations reduced biases in surface net longwave radiation and exacerbated surface net shortwave radiation biases, effectively increasing near surface temperatures and melting, particularly during the summer months. Here, we demonstrate the Earth system response to an improved representation of the ice sheet surface focused on minimizing the surface energy biases and increasing spatial and temporal representativeness. New changes to the surface albedo parameterization, including the introduction of a prognostic aerosol darkening scheme, help mitigate shortwave biases, while modifications to surface roughness characteristics improve near surface sensible heat fluxes. Focusing on the Arctic and Greenland, we examine the combined impact on these changes on regional weather conditions and ice sheet surface mass balance using a high resolution atmospheric only experiment, and we use a coupled model configuration to assess the impact on oceanic conditions and subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Overall, these improvements increase modeled ice sheet surface realism and provide a strong basis for more accurate ice sheet mass balance in GMAO’s future reanalyses and forecasting systems.
Lauren C Andrews↗
Regional Impacts of Ice Sheet Surface Representation Improvements in an Earth System Model
Ice sheet surface conditions and their subsequent impact on surface mass balance play an important role in ice sheet dynamics and ice sheet interaction with the overlying atmosphere and surrounding ocean. The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ecosystem of models and reanalyses model ice sheet and glacier surface mass balance with a moderately complex snow and ice module, including prognostic surface albedo evolution, fractional snow cover, and snowpack hydrology and meltwater retention. With this configuration, Greenland near surface air temperatures and ice sheet melt are well represented in MERRA-2, GMAO’s current atmospheric reanalysis; however, the similarity to observations in some regions is due, in part, to compensating biases in surface energy budget. Recent improvements to GEOS’ cloud microphysics and longwave radiation parameterizations reduced biases in surface net longwave radiation and exacerbated surface net shortwave radiation biases, effectively increasing near surface temperatures and melting, particularly during the summer months. Here, we demonstrate the Earth system response to an improved representation of the ice sheet surface focused on minimizing the surface energy biases and increasing spatial and temporal representativeness. New changes to the surface albedo parameterization, including the introduction of a prognostic aerosol darkening scheme, help mitigate shortwave biases, while modifications to surface roughness characteristics improve near surface sensible heat fluxes. Focusing on the Arctic and Greenland, we examine the combined impact on these changes on regional weather conditions and ice sheet surface mass balance using a high resolution atmospheric only experiment, and we use a coupled model configuration to assess the impact on oceanic conditions and subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Overall, these improvements increase modeled ice sheet surface realism and provide a strong basis for more accurate ice sheet mass balance in GMAO’s future reanalyses and forecasting systems.
Lauren C. Andrews↗
Ice Sheets System Model : Application to SeaRISE Dataset, Greenland Ice Sheet
No abstract available
ice sheet modeling↗
Irregular oscillations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Model simulations of the West Antarctic ice sheet suggest that sporadic, perhaps chaotic, collapse (complete mobilization) of the ice sheet occurred throughout the past one million years. The irregular behavior is due to the slow equilibration time of the distribution of basal till, which lubricates ice-sheet motion. This nonlinear response means that predictions of future collapse of the ice sheet in response to global warming must take into account its past history, and in particular, whether the present basal till distribution predisposes the ice sheet towards rapid change.
Macayeal, Douglas R.↗
Experimental design for the Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2)
The Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2) is a natural progression of previous and ongoing model intercomparison exercises that have focused on the simulation of ice-sheet and ocean processes in Antarctica. The previous exercises motivate the move towards realistic configurations, as well as more diverse model parameters and resolutions. The main objective of MISOMIP2 is to investigate the performance of existing ocean and coupled ice-sheet–ocean models in a range of Antarctic environments through comparisons to observational data. We will assess the status of ice-sheet–ocean modelling as a community and identify common characteristics of models that are best able to capture observed features. As models are highly tuned based on present-day data, we will also compare their sensitivity to prescribed abrupt atmospheric perturbations leading to either very warm or slightly warmer ocean conditions compared to the present day. The approach of MISOMIP2 is to welcome contributions of models as they are, including global and regional configurations, but we request standardized variables and common grids for the outputs. We target the analysis at two specific regions, the Amundsen Sea and the Weddell Sea, since they describe two different ocean environments and have been relatively well observed compared to other areas of Antarctica. An observational “MIPkit” synthesizing existing ocean and ice-sheet observations for a common period is provided to evaluate ocean and ice-sheet models in these two regions.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Using Results from the PlioMIP Ensemble to Investigate the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period
During an interval of the Late Pliocene, referred to here as the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 million years ago), global mean temperature was similar to that predicted for the end of this century, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were higher than preindustrial levels. Sea level was also higher than today, implying a significant reduction in the extent of the ice sheets. Thus, the mPWP provides a natural laboratory in which to investigate the long-term response of the Earth's ice sheets and sea level in a warmer-than-present-day world. At present, our understanding of the Greenland ice sheet during the mPWP is generally based upon predictions using single climate and ice sheet models. Therefore, it is essential that the model dependency of these results is assessed. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) has brought together nine international modeling groups to simulate the warm climate of the Pliocene. Here we use the climatological fields derived from the results of the 15 PlioMIP climate models to force an offline ice sheet model. We show that mPWP ice sheet reconstructions are highly dependent upon the forcing climatology used, with Greenland reconstructions ranging from an ice-free state to a near modern ice sheet. An analysis of the surface albedo variability between the climate models over Greenland offers insights into the drivers of inter-model differences. As we demonstrate that the climate model dependency of our results is high, we highlight the necessity of data-based constraints of ice extent in developing our understanding of the mPWP Greenland ice sheet.
sea level↗