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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

Sea-level response to ice sheet evolution: An ocean perspective

The ocean's influence upon and response to Antarctic ice sheet changes is considered in relation to sea level rise over recent and future decades. Assuming present day ice fronts are in approximate equilibrium, a preliminary budget for the ice sheet is estimated from accumulation vs. iceberg calving and the basal melting that occurs beneath floating ice shelves. Iceberg calving is derived from the volume of large bergs identified and tracked by the Navy/NOAA Joint Ice Center and from shipboard observations. Basal melting exceeds 600 cu km/yr and is concentrated near the ice fronts and ice shelf grounding lines. An apparent negative mass balance for the Antarctic ice sheet may result from an anomalous calving rate during the past decade, but there are large uncertainties associated with all components of the ice budget. The results from general circulation models are noted in the context of projected precipitation increases and ocean temperature changes on and near the continent. An ocean research program that could help refine budget estimates is consistent with goals of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Initiative.

Jacobs, Stanley S.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Recent Changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet as Seen from Space

Many changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet have been reported in the recent scientific literature and have been attributed to various responses of the ice sheet due to regional (and global) warming. Because melting of the ice sheet would contribute approximately 7 m to sea-level rise, the lives and habitat of hundreds of millions of people worldwide would be directly and indirectly affected if continued ice-sheet melting occurs. As mean-annual global temperatures have increased, there has been an increasing focus on studying the Greenland Ice Sheet using available satellite data, and numerous expeditions have been undertaken. Regional "clear-sky" surface temperature increases since the early 1980s in the Arctic, measured using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) infrared data, range from 0.57+/-0.02 C to 0.72+/-0.10 C per decade. Arctic warming has important implications for ice-sheet mass balance because much of the periphery of the Greenland Ice Sheet is already near O C during the melt season, and is thus vulnerable to more extensive melting if temperatures continue to increase. An increase in melting of the ice sheet would accelerate sea-level rise, an issue of increasing concern to billions of people worldwide. The surface temperature of the ice sheet has been studied in even greater detail using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data in the six individual drainage basins as well as for the ice sheet as a whole. Surface temperature trends in the decade of the 2000s have not been strong, according to the MODIS measurements. In addition to surface-temperature increases over the last few decades as measured by AVHRR, other changes have been observed such as accelerated movement of many of Greenland's outlet glaciers and sudden draining of supraglacial lakes. Decreasing mass of the ice sheet since (at least) 2002 has been measured using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, along with an build-up of ice at the higher elevations and a decrease of ice at the lower elevations as measured using airborne Lidar and Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) data. The seminar will address the above issues using a variety of NASA satellite data and ground observations.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Proceedings of a Workshop on Antarctic Meteorite Stranding Surfaces

The discovery of large numbers of meteorites on the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the most exciting developments in polar science in recent years. The meteorites are found on areas of ice called stranding surfaces. Because of the sudden availability of hundreds, and then thousands, of new meteorite specimens at these sites, the significance of the discovery of meteorite stranding surfaces in Antarctica had an immediate and profound impact on planetary science, but there is also in this discovery an enormous, largely unrealized potential to glaciology for records of climatic and ice sheet changes. The glaciological interest derives from the antiquity of the ice in meteorite stranding surfaces. This exposed ice covers a range of ages, probably between zero and more than 500,000 years. The Workshop on Antarctic Meteorite Stranding Surfaces was convened to explore this potential and to devise a course of action that could be recommended to granting agencies. The workshop recognized three prime functions of meteorite stranding surfaces. They provide: (1) A proxy record of climatic change (i.e., a long record of climatic change is probably preserved in the exposed ice stratigraphy); (2) A proxy record of ice volume change; and (3) A source of unique nonterrestrial material.

Cassidy, W. A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Vostok Subglacial Lake: A Review of Geophysical Data Regarding Its Discovery and Topographic Setting

Vostok Subglacial Lake is the largest and best known sub-ice lake in Antarctica. The establishment of its water depth (>500 m) led to an appreciation that such environments may be habitats for life and could contain ancient records of ice sheet change, which catalyzed plans for exploration and research. Here we discuss geophysical data used to identify the lake and the likely physical, chemical, and biological processes that occur in it. The lake is more than 250 km long and around 80 km wide in one place. It lies beneath 4.2 to 3.7 km of ice and exists because background levels of geothermal heating are sufficient to warm the ice base to the pressure melting value. Seismic and gravity measurements show the lake has two distinct basins. The Vostok ice core extracted >200 m of ice accreted from the lake to the ice sheet base. Analysis of this ice has given valuable insights into the lake s biological and chemical setting. The inclination of the ice-water interface leads to differential basal melting in the north versus freezing in the south, which excites circulation and potential mixing of the water. The exact nature of circulation depends on hydrochemical properties, which are not known at this stage. The age of the subglacial lake is likely to be as old as the ice sheet (approx.14 Ma). The age of the water within the lake will be related to the age of the ice melting into it and the level of mixing. Rough estimates put that combined age as approx.1 Ma.

Siegert, Martin J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The ICESat-2 Mission: Concept, Pre-Launch Activities, and Opportunities

Ice sheet and sea level changes have been explicitly identified as a priority in the President's Climate Change Science Program, the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, the 4th Assessment Report of the IPee and other national and international policy documents. Following recommendations from the National Research Council for an ICESat follow-on mission, the ICESat-2 mission is now under development for launch in early 2016. The primary aims of the ICESat-2 mission are to continue measurements of sea-ice thickness change, and ice sheet elevation changes at scales from outlet glaciers to the entire ice sheet as established by ICES at. In contrast to ICES at, ICESat-2 will employ a 6-beam micro-pulse laser photon-counting approach. The current concept uses a high repetition rate (10 kHz; equivalent to 70 cm on the ground) low-power laser in conjunction with single-photon sensitive detectors to measure range using approximately 532nm (green) light. The concept will enable the generation of seasonal maps of ice sheet elevation of Greenland and Antarctica, monthly maps of sea ice thickness of the polar ocean, a dense map of land elevation (2 km track spacing at the equator after two years) enabling the determination of canopy height, as well as ocean heights. While the mission has been optimized for cryospheric science and vast amount of high precision elevation measurements taken over land and over the ocean as well as of the atmosphere will provide scientists with a wealth of opportunities to explore the utility of ICESat-2. Those will range from the retrieval of cloud properties, to river stages, to snow cover, to land use changes and more. The presentation will review the measurement concept and physical principles of ICESat-2, current and planned activities to assess instrument performance and develop geophysical algorithms, as well as potential opportunities outside the main objectives of ICESat-2.

Markus, Thorsten↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emulation With Uncertainty Quantification of Regional Sea‐Level Change Caused by the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract Projecting regional sea‐level change under various climate‐change scenarios typically involves running forward simulations of the Earth's gravitational, rotational and deformational (GRD) response to ice‐mass change, which requires substantial computational cost if applied to probabilistic frameworks requiring thousands to millions of samples. Here we build emulators of regional sea‐level change at 27 coastal locations, due to the GRD effects associated with future Antarctic Ice Sheet mass change over the 21st century. The emulators are evaluated against a numerical sea‐level model applied to an ensemble of ice‐sheet model simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2100. We build a physics‐based emulator using a recent sensitivity kernel approach and compare it to machine learning based emulators (neural network and conditional variational autoencoder methods). In order to quantify uncertainty, we derive well‐calibrated prediction intervals for regional sea‐level change via split‐conformal inference and linear regression, and show that Monte Carlo dropout does not yield well‐calibrated uncertainties in this instance. We also demonstrate substantial gains in computational efficiency using both the physics‐based emulator and neural networks in comparison to the numerical model for the complete regional sea‐level solution. Overall, we find the physics‐based emulator modestly outperforms the machine learning emulators for this problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2023

Evaluating Greenland Surface-Mass-Balance and Firn-Densification Data Using ICESat-2 Altimetry

Surface-mass-balance (SMB) and firn-densification (FD) models are widely used in altimetry studies as a tool to separate atmospheric-driven from ice-dynamics-driven ice-sheet mass changes and to partition observed volume changes into ice-mass changes and firn-air-content changes. Until now, SMB models have been principally validated based on comparison with ice core and weather station data or comparison with widely separated flight radar-survey flight lines. Firn-densification models have been primarily validated based on their ability to match net densification over decades, as recorded in firn cores, and the short-term time-dependent component of densification has rarely been evaluated at all. The advent of systematic ice-sheet-wide repeated ice-surface-height measurements from ICESat-2 (the Ice Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite, 2) allows us to measure the net surface-height change of the Greenland ice sheet at quarterly resolution and compare the measured surface-height differences directly with those predicted by three FD–SMB models: MARv3.5.11 (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional version 3.5.11) and GSFCv1.1 and GSFCv1.2 (the Goddard Space Flight Center FD–SMB models version 1.1 and 1.2). By segregating the data by season and elevation, and based on the timing and magnitude of modelled processes in areas where we expect minimal ice-dynamics-driven height changes, we investigate the models' accuracy in predicting atmospherically driven height changes. We find that while all three models do well in predicting the large seasonal changes in the low-elevation parts of the ice sheet where melt rates are highest, two of the models (MARv3.5.11 and GSFCv1.1) systematically overpredict, by around a factor of 2, the magnitude of height changes in the high-elevation parts of the ice sheet, particularly those associated with melt events. This overprediction seems to be associated with the melt sensitivity of the models in the high-elevation part of the ice sheet. The third model, GSFCv1.2, which has an updated high-elevation melt parameterization, avoids this overprediction.

Benjamin E. Smith↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) Summary Mission Timeline and Performance Relative to Pre-Launch Mission Success Criteria

The Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission was conceived, primarily, to quantify the spatial and temporal variations in the topography of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. It carried on board the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS), which measured the round-trip travel time of a laser pulse emitted from the satellite to the surface of the Earth and back. Each range derived from these measurements was combined with precise, concurrent orbit and pointing information to determine the location of the laser spot centroid on the Earth. By developing a time series of precise topographic maps for each ice sheet, changes in their surface elevations can be used to infer their mass balances.

Webb, Charles E.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to Past and Future Climate Change

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) contains the vast majority of Earth’s glacier ice (~52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the EAIS have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the EAIS’s response to past warm periods, synthesise current observations of change, and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent significant mass loss during past warm periods are currently losing mass, but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the EAIS over the 21st Century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2°C is satisfied.

Antarctic↗
NASA NTRS1999

Elevation Change of the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet from Satellite Radar Altimeter Data

Long-term changes in the thickness of the polar ice sheets are important indicators of climate change. Understanding the contributions to the global water mass balance from the accumulation or ablation of grounded ice in Greenland and Antarctica is considered crucial for determining the source of the about 2 mm/yr sea-level rise in the last century. Though the Antarctic ice sheet is much larger than its northern counterpart, the Greenland ice sheet is more likely to undergo dramatic changes in response to a warming trend. This can be attributed to the warmer Greenland climate, as well as a potential for amplification of a global warming trend in the polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In collaboration with Drs. Curt Davis and Craig Kluever of the University of Missouri, we are using data from satellite radar altimeters to measure changes in the elevation of the Southern Greenland ice sheet from 1978 to the present. Difficulties with systematic altimeter measurement errors, particularly in intersatellite comparisons, beset earlier studies of the Greenland ice sheet thickness. We use altimeter data collected contemporaneously over the global ocean to establish a reference for correcting ice-sheet data. In addition, the waveform data from the ice-sheet radar returns are reprocessed to better determine the range from the satellite to the ice surface. At JPL, we are focusing our efforts principally on the reduction of orbit errors and range biases in the measurement systems on the various altimeter missions. Our approach emphasizes global characterization and reduction of the long-period orbit errors and range biases using altimeter data from NASA's Ocean Pathfinder program. Along-track sea-height residuals are sequentially filtered and backwards smoothed, and the radial orbit errors are modeled as sinusoids with a wavelength equal to one revolution of the satellite. The amplitudes of the sinusoids are treated as exponentially-correlated noise processes with a time-constant of six days. Measurement errors (e.g., altimeter range bias) are simultaneously recovered as constant parameters. The corrections derived from the global ocean analysis are then applied over the Greenland ice sheet. The orbit error and measurement bias corrections for different missions are developed in a single framework to enable robust linkage of ice-sheet measurements from 1978 to the present. In 1998, we completed our re-evaluation of the 1978 Seasat and 1985-1989 Geosat Exact Repeat Mission data. The estimates of ice thickness over Southern Greenland (south of 72N and above 2000 m) from 1978 to 1988 show large regional variations (+/-18 cm/yr), but yield an overall rate of +1.5 +/- 0.5 cm/yr (one standard error). Accounting for systematic errors, the estimate may not be significantly different from the null growth rate. The average elevation change from 1978 to 1988 is too small to assess whether the Greenland ice sheet is undergoing a long-term change.

Haines, Bruce J.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to Past and Future Climate Change

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) contains the vast majority of Earth’s glacier ice (~52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the EAIS have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the EAIS’s response to past warm periods, synthesise current observations of change, and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent significant mass loss during past warm periods are currently losing mass, but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the EAIS over the 21st Century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2°C is satisfied.

East Antarctic Ice Sheet↗
NASA NTRS2004

Advances in Measuring Antarctic Sea-Ice Thickness and Ice-Sheet Elevations with ICESat Laser Altimetry

NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) has been measuring elevations of the Antarctic ice sheet and sea-ice freeboard elevations with unprecedented accuracy. Since February 20,2003, data has been acquired during three periods of laser operation varying from 36 to 54 days, which is less than the continuous operation of 3 to 5 years planned for the mission. The primary purpose of ICESat is to measure time-series of ice-sheet elevation changes for determination of the present-day mass balance of the ice sheets, study of associations between observed ice changes and polar climate, and estimation of the present and future contributions of the ice sheets to global sea level rise. ICESat data will continue to be acquired for approximately 33 days periods at 3 to 6 month intervals with the second of ICESat's three lasers, and eventually with the third laser. The laser footprints are about 70 m on the surface and are spaced at 172 m along-track. The on-board GPS receiver enables radial orbit determinations to an accuracy better than 5 cm. The orbital altitude is around 600 km at an inclination of 94 degrees with a 8-day repeat pattern for the calibration and validation period, followed by a 91 -day repeat period for the rest of the mission. The expected range precision of single footprint measurements was 10 cm, but the actual range precision of the data has been shown to be much better at 2 to 3 cm. The star-tracking attitude-determination system should enable footprints to be located to 6 m horizontally when attitude calibrations are completed. With the present attitude calibration, the elevation accuracy over the ice sheets ranges from about 30 cm over the low-slope areas to about 80 cm over areas with slopes of 1 to 2 degrees, which is much better than radar altimetry. After the first period of data collection, the spacecraft attitude was controlled to point the laser beam to within 50 m of reference surface tracks over the ice sheets. Detection of ice elevation changes over select areas of the ice sheet is demonstrated with using both crossover analysis and precise-repeat track analysis. Sea ice freeboard-height distributions over the Antarctic sea pack are derived over distances of 50 km and converted into maps of average freeboard thickness and sea-ice thickness.

Zwally, H. Jay↗
NASA NTRS2012

Comparison of Surface Elevation Changes of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets from Radar and Laser Altimetry

A primary purpose of satellite altimeter measurements is determination of the mass balances of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and changes with time by measurement of changes in the surface elevations. Since the early 1990's, important measurements for this purpose have been made by radar altimeters on ERS-l and 2, Envisat, and CryoSat and a laser altimeter on ICESat. One principal factor limiting direct comparisons between radar and laser measurements is the variable penetration depth of the radar signal and the corresponding location of the effective depth of the radar-measured elevation beneath the surface, in contrast to the laser-measured surface elevation. Although the radar penetration depth varies significantly both spatially and temporally, empirical corrections have been developed to account for this effect. Another limiting factor in direct comparisons is caused by differences in the size of the laser and radar footprints and their respective horizontal locations on the surface. Nevertheless, derived changes in elevation, dHldt, and time-series of elevation, H(t), have been shown to be comparable. For comparisons at different times, corrections for elevation changes caused by variations in the rate offrrn compaction have also been developed. Comparisons between the H(t) and the average dH/dt at some specific locations, such as the Vostok region of East Antarctic, show good agreement among results from ERS-l and 2, Envisat, and ICESat. However, Greenland maps of dHidt from Envisat and ICESat for the same time periods (2003-2008) show some areas of significant differences as well as areas of good agreement. Possible causes of residual differences are investigated and described.

Zwally, H. Jay↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL), an Airborne Simulator for the ICESat-2 Mission

The Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) mission is currently under development by NASA. The primary mission of ICESat-2 will be to measure elevation changes of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, document changes in sea ice thickness distribution, and derive important information about the current state of the global ice coverage. To make this important measurement, NASA is implementing a new type of satellite-based surface altimetry based on sensing of laser pulses transmitted to, and reflected from, the surface. Because the ICESat-2 measurement approach is different from that used for previous altimeter missions, a high-fidelity aircraft instrument, the Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL), was developed to demonstrate the measurement concept and provide verification of the ICESat-2 methodology. The MABEL instrument will serve as a prototype for the ICESat-2 mission and also provides a science tool for studies of land surface topography. This paper outlines the science objectives for the ICESat-2 mission, the current measurement concept for ICESat-2, and the instrument concept and preliminary data from MABEL.

McGill, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS2012

First Assessments of Predicted ICESat-2 Performance Using Aircraft Data

The Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) is a next-generation laser altimeter designed to continue key observations of ice sheet elevation change, sea ice freeboard, vegetation canopy height, earth surface elevation, and sea surface height. Scheduled for launch in mid-2016, ICESat-2 will use a high repetition rate (10 kHz), small footprint (10 m nominal ground diameter) laser, and a single-photon-sensitive detection strategy (photon counting) to measure precise range to the earth's surface. Using green light (532 nm), the six beams of ICESat-2 will provide improved spatial coverage compared with the single beam of ICESat, while the differences in transmit energy among the beams provide a large dynamic range. The six beams are arranged into three pairs of beams which allow slopes to measured on an orbit-by-orbit basis. In order to evaluate models of predicted ICESat-2 performance and provide ICESat-2-like data for algorithm development, an airborne ICESat-2 simulator was developed and first flown in 2010. This simulator, the Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL) was most recently deployed to Iceland in April 2012 and collected approx 85 hours of science data over land ice, sea ice, and calibration targets. MABEL uses a similar photon-counting measurement strategy to what will be used on ICESat-2. MABEL collects data in 16 green channels and an additional 8 channels in the infrared aligned across the direction of flight. By using NASA's ER-2 aircraft flying at 20km altitude, MABEL flies as close to space as is practical, and collects data through approx 95% of the atmosphere. We present background on the MABEL instrument, and data from the April 2012 deployment to Iceland. Among the 13 MABEL flights, we collected data over the Greenland ice sheet interior and outlet glaciers in the southwest and western Greenland, sea ice data over the Nares Strait and Greenland Sea, and a number of small glaciers and ice caps in Iceland and Svalbard. Several of the flights were coincident in time and space with NASA's Operation IceBridge, which provides an independent data set for validation. MABEL also collected data along CryoSat track 10482 in north central Greenland approximately one month after CryoSat passed overhead.

Neumann, Thomas↗
NASA NTRS2011

First Assessments of ICESat-2 Performance Using Aircraft Data

The Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) Is a next-generation laser altimeter designed to continue key observations of ice sheet elevation change, sea ice freeboard, vegetation canopy height, earth surface elevation, and sea surface height. Scheduled for launch in early 2016, ICESat-2 will use a high repetition rate (approximately 10 kHz), small footprint (10m diameter) laser, and a single-photon-sensitive detection strategy (photon counting) to measure precise ranges to the earth's surface. Operating in the green (approximately 532nm), the six beams of ICESat-2 will provide improved spatial coverage compared with ICESat while the differences in transmit energy among the beams provide a large dynamic range. In order to evaluate models of predicted ICESat-2 performance, and provide ICESat-2-like data for algorithm development an airborne ICESat-2 simulator was developed and first flown in 2010, this simulator, the Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL) has now had three deployments in the western US, and will be deployed to the polar regions in spring of 2012. MABEL uses a similar measurement strategy to what will be used on ICESat-2. MABEL collects more spatially-dense data than ICESat-2 (approximately 2-cm along track) with a smaller 2m diameter footprint in 16 green channels and an additional 8 channels in the infrared. The comparison between frequencies allows for analysis of possible penetration of green energy into water or snow. We present MABEL data collected over deserts, forests, ocean water, lakes. snow covered mountains, and saft flats, provide examples of how these data are being used to develop algorithms that derive geophysical products from ICESat 2 and assess expected performances.

Neumann, Tom↗
NASA NTRS1999

Elevation Change of the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet: Update

The overall focus of our research is to document long-term elevation change of the Greenland ice sheet using satellite altimeter data. In addition, we are investigating seasonal and interannual variations in the ice-sheet elevations to place the long-term measurements in context. Specific objectives of this research include: 1) Developing new techniques to significantly improve the accuracy of elevation-change estimates derived from satellite altimetry. 2) Measuring the elevation change of the Greenland ice sheet over a 10-year time period using Seasat (1978) and Geosat GM (1985-86) and Geosat ERM (1986-88) altimeter data. 3) Quantifying seasonal/interannual variations in the elevation-change estimates using the continuous time series of surface elevations from the Geosat GM and ERM datasets. 4) Extending the long-term elevation change analysis to two decades by incorporating data from the ERS-1/2 missions (1991-99) and, if available, the Geosat-Follow On (GFO) mission (1998-??).

Davis, C. H.↗