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LENS: Learning Enabled Network Synthesis

RTRC and UMD have developed novel machine learning based methods under the ARPA-E DIFFERENTIATE program for rapid acceleration of hypothesis generation in complex architecture design spaces involving both discrete choices of component inclusion and interconnection and continuous parametric decisions. The project named Learning Enabled Network Synthesis (LENS) further demonstrated the developed methods on challenging electrical power converter design problems by identifying the most suitable circuit topologies and simultaneously selecting the most appropriate components to achieve optimized design of power converter with improved performances. We demonstrated that LENS could enable exploration of very large design space of circuit topologies and components by addressing the limitations of conventional design process in non-linear, high switching speed, multi-dimensional power converter design and optimization. The key innovation developed in LENS is the seamless integration of statistical learning and logical reasoning techniques and building on the individual strengths of these techniques for rapid hypothesis discovery. The main component of LENS comprises of: 1) Graph Reasoning Engine (GRE) to enforce composition rules that rapidly reject all discrete architectures that are composed incorrectly and generates an adaptive database of feasible designs which can be used by ML modules, 2) Graph Generative Learning module which is a deep neural network based generative model for graph architectures which can enable design space exploration beyond the dataset generated by the GRE, 3) Graph Reduced Order Model (ROM) for graph domains for accelerating computation of output metrics, and 4) Active learning and Rule Discovery module for sample efficient learning and extracting logical rules from the learned ML models which will be integrated in the GRE to enhance the filtering effectiveness. LENS approach can be applied to any design domains where designs can be represented as multi-attribute graphs. The LENS team integrated the various technical innovations listed above into an optimization pipeline and exercised the optimization pipeline on the converter design problem. The LENS project demonstrated that the developed AI/ML technologies can be used to generate novel converter circuits >45x faster than experts on chosen use-cases. This can enable faster design space exploration and identification of new designs which are not considered by experts due to the increasing design space complexity. This has significant potential impact on the public and energy needs of the country. It is currently estimated that 30% of all electrical powers generated passes through power converters. The future estimate is that 80% of all power generated would be passing through converters. LENS fills a critical gap in this space since by accelerating the design process the designers would be able to generate more efficient converters which can lead to significant energy savings for the country.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Explainable Artificial Intelligence Technology for Predictive Maintenance

The domestic nuclear power plant fleet has relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming preventive maintenance programs, thus driving up operation and maintenance costs to achieve high-capacity factors. Artificial intelligence and machine learning can help simplify complex problems, such as diagnosing equipment degradation, to enable more effective decision-making. Benefits will be felt not only within existing analog and digital instrumentation and control, but also work processes, the integration of people with technology, and most importantly, the business case. Together, these hold promise to make nuclear power more efficient and reduce costs associated with operation and maintenance. While the artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies hold significant promise in the nuclear industry, there are challenges or barriers to their adoption. This report outlines the those different machine learning adoption barriers (categorized as historical, technical, economic, regulatory, and user) that the industry must overcome to realize the full benefits of artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities for long-term economic sustainability. This report also provides solutions for some of these barriers by focusing on improving the explainability of machine learning to encourage trust from the end-user. Trust and explainability are essential to machine learning adoption. This report focuses on research-developed solutions to some of these barriers while analyzing a non-safety-related system, namely the circulating water system. This system frequently experiences waterbox fouling which our models preemptively diagnoses then explains to the operator how those conclusions were reached. This report presents and discusses the inherent trade-off between machine learning performance (in terms of accuracy) and explainability, where highly accurate machine learning methods (such as deep-learning) are the least explainable, and the most explainable methods (such as decision trees) are the least accurate. In addition, explainability of artificial intelligence techniques in terms of transparency and post-hoc metrics are discussed. This report outlines the importance of data novelty and value of new information in evaluating both the explainability and trustworthiness. Novelty detection helps to establish consistency or inconsistency of the new data with respect to the training data. On the other hand, value of information could be a part of the user-centric visualization recommendation system that request additional information to be collected, thereby strengthening the machine learning outcomes. During this project, a copyrighted user-centric visualization that aligns with a human-in-the-loop approach was developed. The user-centric visualization presents different levels of information and can be tailored as per user credentials to gain user confidence. One of the salient features of the user-centric visualization is it presents machine learning methods with explainability metrics. A simplified version of the user-centric visualization was presented to 32 users with varying levels of machine learning expertise. Feedback was solicited to test the hypothesis that the app contained sufficient explainability and that the users would trust the algorithm. Overall, the app was positively received, and the hypothesis was supported. This report discusses the trust-but-verify framework – a potential approach to build user trust artificial intelligence. The framework discusses trust from the human level to artificial intelligence level. The fundamental premise of the trust but verify framework is derived from an observation of nuclear safety culture (i.e., nuclear power plant personnel do not rely on a singular source of data to make a decision). This also ties back to the user-centric visualization that presents different levels of information to achieve both explainability and trustworthiness of artificial intelligence. Even so, the adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning in the nuclear industry faces additional barriers, namely regulatory and stakeholder readiness. To overcome these challenges, new solutions must gain regulatory approval and cater to stakeholder needs. The Nuclear Regulatory Committee has a 5-year strategic plan which prepares them for reviewing artificial intelligence technologies in licensee submissions. Early and frequent engagement with the regulator is encouraged. Additionally, artificial intelligence solutions should incorporate human-in-the-loop considerations and offer explainability. Stakeholders must prepare by hiring or training staff to adapt to advancing technology in everyday plant tasks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Automated Identification of Characteristic Droplet Size Distributions in Stratocumulus Clouds Utilizing a Data Clustering Algorithm

Abstract Droplet-level interactions in clouds are often parameterized by a modified gamma fitted to a “global” droplet size distribution. Do “local” droplet size distributions of relevance to microphysical processes look like these average distributions? This paper describes an algorithm to search and classify characteristic size distributions within a cloud. The approach combines hypothesis testing, specifically, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test, and a widely used class of machine learning algorithms for identifying clusters of samples with similar properties: density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) is used as the specific example for illustration. The two-sample KS test does not presume any specific distribution, is parameter free, and avoids biases from binning. Importantly, the number of clusters is not an input parameter of the DBSCAN-type algorithms but is independently determined in an unsupervised fashion. As implemented, it works on an abstract space from the KS test results, and hence spatial correlation is not required for a cluster. The method is explored using data obtained from the Holographic Detector for Clouds (HOLODEC) deployed during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign. The algorithm identifies evidence of the existence of clusters of nearly identical local size distributions. It is found that cloud segments have as few as one and as many as seven characteristic size distributions. To validate the algorithm’s robustness, it is tested on a synthetic dataset and successfully identifies the predefined distributions at plausible noise levels. The algorithm is general and is expected to be useful in other applications, such as remote sensing of cloud and rain properties. Significance Statement A typical cloud can have billions of drops spread over tens or hundreds of kilometers in space. Keeping track of the sizes, positions, and interactions of all of these droplets is impractical, and, as such, information about the relative abundance of large and small drops is typically quantified with a “size distribution.” Droplets in a cloud interact locally, however, so this work is motivated by the question of whether the cloud droplet size distribution is different in different parts of a cloud. A new method, based on hypothesis testing and machine learning, determines how many different size distributions are contained in a given cloud. This is important because the size distribution describes processes such as cloud droplet growth and light transmission through clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High-dimensional and permutation invariant anomaly detection

Methods for anomaly detection of new physics processes are often limited to low-dimensional spaces due to the difficulty of learning high-dimensional probability densities. Particularly at the constituent level, incorporating desirable properties such as permutation invariance and variable-length inputs becomes difficult within popular density estimation methods. In this work, we introduce a permutation-invariant density estimator for particle physics data based on diffusion models, specifically designed to handle variable-length inputs. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methodology by utilizing the learned density as a permutation-invariant anomaly detection score, effectively identifying jets with low likelihood under the background-only hypothesis. To validate our density estimation method, we investigate the ratio of learned densities and compare to those obtained by a supervised classification algorithm.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Toward a Diverse Next-Generation Energy Workforce: Teaching Artificial Photosynthesis and Electrochemistry in Elementary Schools through Active Learning

Artificial photosynthesis is a promising approach to generate commodity chemicals using abundant chemical feedstocks and renewable energy sources. Despite its importance, affordable and effective hands-on classroom activities that demonstrate artificial photosynthesis and teach key concepts, especially for primary school students, are lacking. Educating young students on this topic is a critical step in the development of the next-generation energy workforce, especially one that is diverse in race and gender. Here, we hypothesize that an effective approach to educate a broad range of young students on the topic of artificial photosynthesis is through the use of an active learning-based lesson plan that employs cheap and accessible materials. This hypothesis is confirmed by evaluating the understanding of fifth grade students with a survey before and after a lesson plan on artificial photosynthesis that uses active-learning techniques and uses safe and highly accessible materials (baking soda, tap water, plastic jars, Ni coil, alligator clips, and a solar cell) to perform solar-powered water splitting. The lesson plan and survey questions are designed to align with the educational outcomes for fifth grade classrooms in California and to address four general learning objectives: (1) Motivations of Artificial Photosynthesis, (2) Applications of Artificial Photosynthesis, (3) Inputs and Outputs of Artificial Photosynthesis, and (4) Engineering Design for Artificial Photosynthesis. The survey data demonstrate a statistically significant improvement in overall student understanding from the lesson plan. Importantly, the data show that the lesson plan presented here is effective at narrowing the performance gap between minority students and overly represented groups.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

An Agenda for Multimodal Foundation Models for Earth Observation

Archives of remote sensing (RS) data are increasing swiftly as new sensing modalities with enhanced spatiotemporal resolution become operational. While promising new breakthroughs, the sheer volume of RS archives stretches the limits of human analysts and existing AI tools, as most models are: i) limited to single data modalities; ii) task-specific; iii) heavily reliant on labeled data. The emerging Foundation Models (FMs) have the potential to address these limitations. Trained on vast unlabeled datasets through self-supervised learning, FMs enable generic feature extraction that facilitate specialization to a wide variety of downstream tasks. This paper describes a vision towards an FM for multimodal Earth Observation data (FM4EO), discussing key building blocks and open challenges. We put particular emphasis on multimodal reasoning, a topic underexplored in EO. Our ultimate goal is a practical path toward FM4EO with capacity to unlock breakthroughs in few-shot learning scenarios, multimodal geographic knowledge integration, synthesis, and hypothesis generation.

Ambrozio Dias, Philipe↗

Computational investigation of water glasses using machine-learning potentials

The molecular origins of water’s anomalous properties have long been a subject of scientific inquiry. The liquid–liquid phase transition hypothesis, which posits the existence of distinct low-density and high-density liquid states separated by a first-order phase transition terminating at a critical point, has gained increasing experimental and computational support and offers a thermodynamically consistent framework for many of water’s anomalies. However, experimental challenges in avoiding crystallization near the postulated liquid–liquid critical point have focused attention to water’s canonical glassy states: low-density and high-density amorphous ice. Here, we use two Deep Potential machine-learning models, trained on the Strongly Constrained and Appropriately Normed density functional and the highly accurate Many-Body Polarizable potential, to conduct an investigation of water’s glassy phenomenology based on quantum mechanical calculations. Despite not being explicitly trained on amorphous ices, both models accurately capture the structure and transformation of the water glasses, including their interconversion along different thermodynamic paths. Isobaric quenching of liquid water at various pressures generates a continuum of intermediate amorphous ices and density fluctuations increase near the liquid–liquid critical pressure. The glass transition temperatures of the amorphous ices produced at different pressures exhibit two distinct branches, corresponding to low-density and high-density amorphous ice behaviors, consistent with experiment and the liquid–liquid transition hypothesis. Extrapolating transformation pressures from isothermal compressions to experimental compression rates brings our simulations into excellent agreement with data. Our findings demonstrate that machine-learning potentials trained on equilibrium phases can effectively model nonequilibrium glassy behavior and pave the way for studying long-timescale, out-of-equilibrium processes with quantum mechanical accuracy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Cross-Domain Reasoning for Neuromorphic Model Design

Designing performant neuromorphic models requires reasoning across neuroscience, neuromorphic computing, and machine learning, making it a natural target for cross-domain hypothesis generation. Our primary contribution is a multi-corpus knowledge graph spanning all three domains, which we show substantially increases cross-domain retrieval novelty over single-corpus baselines. We additionally introduce NeuKReAct, an agentic reasoning framework that iteratively retrieves from this graph and synthesizes design hypotheses via a step-by-step blackboard architecture, enabling structured compartmentalization of design decisions. Lastly, we introduce an execution head that translates hypotheses into structured design documents and runnable code. We evaluate novelty using a combinatorial creativity metric that measures cross-domain retrieval distance across the citation graph. Our results confirm that corpus breadth is the dominant driver of novelty. Moreover, we highlight a concrete instance of the novelty-utility tradeoff within NeuKReAct, underscoring a need for joint creativity evaluation, balancing both novelty and utility.

Ramavarapu, Vikram [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000188757213)↗

Walking the ‘design–build–test–learn’ cycle: flux analysis and genetic engineering reveal the pliability of plant central metabolism

Oilseeds are of great economic importance for food and animal feed and their contribution to renewable energy production. Soybean seeds (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) contain c. 40% protein, 20% oil, and 30% carbohydrate (Song et al., 2023). Due to the massive scale of soybean production worldwide, even small improvements in seed protein and oil content make economic sense (Song et al., 2023). Successful manipulation of seed composition largely depends on a thorough understanding of the processes and pathways involved in the biosynthesis of fatty acids and amino acids, which are the building blocks of lipids and proteins. Rational engineering of the synthesis of storage reserves, that is, the rerouting of metabolic flux in central metabolism, is difficult to accomplish due to the complexity of the central metabolic network, the intricate regulation of its enzymes at multiple levels, and the often-unpredictable effects of genetic manipulation (Sweetlove et al., 2017). Therefore, the advancement of our understanding of central metabolism and its control of carbon partitioning requires following an iterative ‘design–build–test–learn’ (DBTL) cycle (Lin & Eudes, 2020) where metabolic flux analysis and hypothesis testing by transgenic approaches are important components. Previous metabolic studies on soybeans using isotopic tracers and metabolic flux analysis have provided insight into how lipid and protein biosynthesis occurs simultaneously during seed development (Allen et al., 2009; Allen & Young, 2013; Kambhampati et al., 2021). In an article published in this issue of New Phytologist, Morley et al. (2023; 1834–1851) put the insights they have gained into the delivery of metabolic precursors and energy cofactors to oil synthesis to the test and arrive at a successful metabolic engineering design. They show that an increase in seed oil content in soybeans can be achieved by overexpression of malic enzyme (ME) during seed development. Malic enzyme refers to a class of decarboxylating malate dehydrogenase enzymes that oxidize malate with NAD + or NADP + as redox cofactor while generating pyruvate and CO 2 . Like higher plants in general, soybean has distinct NADH- or NADPH-producing ME isoforms localized to the cytosol, plastid, or mitochondria (Gerrard Wheeler et al., 2016). As Morley et al. show, an increase in seed oil can be achieved in particular when a NADP+-dependent enzyme isoform (EC 1.1.1.40) is overexpressed in the plastid. Given the complex compartmentalization of pyruvate, malate, and redox metabolism (Fig. 1), increased oil production appears to depend on additional pyruvate and reducing equivalents being produced in the same compartment where de novo fatty acid biosynthesis occurs: the plastid.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Model and remote-sensing-guided experimental design and hypothesis generation for monitoring snow-soil–plant interactions

In this study, we develop a machine-learning (ML)-enabled strategy for selecting hillslope-scale ecohydrological monitoring sites within snow-dominated mountainous watersheds, with a particular focus on snow-soil–plant interactions. Data layers rely on spatial data layers from both remote sensing and hydrological model simulations. Specifically, a Landsat-based foresummer drought sensitivity index is used to define the dependency of the annual peak plant productivity on the Palmer drought severity index in the early growing season. Hydrological simulations provide the spatiotemporal dynamics of near-surface soil moisture and snow depth. In this framework, a regression analysis identifies the key hydrological variables relevant to the spatial heterogeneity of drought sensitivity. We then apply unsupervised clustering to these key variables, using the Gaussian mixture model, to group hillslopes into several zones that have divergent relationships regarding soil moisture, snow dynamics, and drought sensitivity. Using the datasets collected in the East River Watershed (Crested Butte, Colorado, United States), results show that drought sensitivity is significantly correlated with model-derived soil moisture and snow-free timing over space and time. The relationship is, however, non-linear, such that the correlation decreases above a threshold elevation and in a heavy snow year due to large snowpacks, lateral flow, and soil storage limitations. Clustering is then able to define the zones that have high or low sensitivity to drought, as well as the mid-elevation regions where sensitivity is associated with the topographic aspect and net potential radiation. In addition, the algorithm identifies the most representative hillslopes with road/trail access within each zone for installing monitoring sites. Our method also aims to significantly increase the use of ML and model-simulation results to guide critical zone and watershed monitoring activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On-the-fly autonomous control of neutron diffraction via physics-informed Bayesian active learning

We demonstrate the first live, autonomous control over neutron diffraction experiments by developing and deploying ANDiE: the autonomous neutron diffraction explorer. Neutron scattering is a unique and versatile characterization technique for probing the magnetic structure and behavior of materials. However, instruments at neutron scattering facilities in the world is limited, and instruments at such facilities are perennially oversubscribed. We demonstrate a significant reduction in experimental time required for neutron diffraction experiments by implementation of autonomous navigation of measurement parameter space through machine learning. Prior scientific knowledge and Bayesian active learning are used to dynamically steer the sequence of measurements. We show that ANDiE can experimentally determine the magnetic ordering transition of both MnO and Fe 1.09 Te all while providing a fivefold enhancement in measurement efficiency. Furthermore, in a hypothesis testing post-processing step, ANDiE can determine transition behavior from a set of possible physical models. ANDiE's active learning approach is broadly applicable to a variety of neutron-based experiments and can open the door for neutron scattering as a tool of accelerated materials discovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Comparative modeling reveals the molecular determinants of aneuploidy fitness cost in a wild yeast model

Although implicated as deleterious in many organisms, aneuploidy can underlie rapid phenotypic evolution. However, aneuploidy will be maintained only if the benefit outweighs the cost, which remains incompletely understood. To quantify this cost and the molecular determinants behind it, we generated a panel of chromosome duplications in Saccharomyces cerevisiae and applied comparative modeling and molecular validation to understand aneuploidy toxicity. We show that 74%–94% of the variance in aneuploid strains’ growth rates is explained by the cumulative cost of genes on each chromosome, measured for single-gene duplications using a genomic library, along with the deleterious contribution of small nucleolar RNAs (snoRNAs) and beneficial effects of tRNAs. Machine learning to identify properties of detrimental gene duplicates provided no support for the balance hypothesis of aneuploidy toxicity and instead identified gene length as the best predictor of toxicity. Our results present a generalized framework for the cost of aneuploidy with implications for disease biology and evolution.

genic load↗

Learning likelihood ratios with neural network classifiers

The likelihood ratio is a crucial quantity for statistical inference in science that enables hypothesis testing, construction of confidence intervals, reweighting of distributions, and more. Many modern scientific applications, however, make use of data- or simulation-driven models for which computing the likelihood ratio can be very difficult or even impossible. By applying the so-called “likelihood ratio trick,” approximations of the likelihood ratio may be computed using clever parametrizations of neural network-based classifiers. A number of different neural network setups can be defined to satisfy this procedure, each with varying performance in approximating the likelihood ratio when using finite training data. We present a series of empirical studies detailing the performance of several common loss functionals and parametrizations of the classifier output in approximating the likelihood ratio of two univariate and multivariate Gaussian distributions as well as simulated high-energy particle physics datasets.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Particle Filter Based Inference Testing

The primary intent of PAR-FIT (Particle Filter based Inference Testing) is to provide hard inductive evidence that a machine learning model is capable and proven for an individual test input. By examining training data used to form the underlying model functional correlation, an estimate of the reliability that a model will make the correct prediction can be made. The Sequential Probability Ratio Test is used to derive a qualitative evaluation for reliability based on hypothesis testing. The PAR-FIT framework achieves this by implementing a particle filter and the sequential probability ratio test algorithms on the machine learning model training data to determine relevancy of new individual test samples to the training dataset. The kernel function evaluates the local proximity and density of training data used to derive a prediction outcome. Particles are used to probabilistically determine which training data to evaluate for proximity. For test samples that are within a close proximity to and surrounded by multiple training data points, the evaluated reliability of the prediction is high. For test samples that are anomalies not represented by the training dataset, in low density data clusters, or are far from existing data points, the evaluated reliability is low as insufficient training evidence exists to suggest the model is capable of making the correct prediction. Sequential Probability Ratio Test is further used to determine when a hypothesis on whether a signal can be rejected or accepted for use. The ratio test collects sequence information from the particle filter to test whether the signal is anomalous or normal via hypothesis testing of the underlying distributions.

Chen, Edward [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Ida↗

Multi‐Scale Model‐Informed Deep Learning for Plasma‐Nanoparticle Interaction

The Overarching Goal of this proposed research is to understand and quantitively determine the interactions between non-thermal plasma (hot electrons, reactive radicals, vibrationally excited species) and surface reactions on influencing the activity and selectivity of the desired reactions via developing multi-scale model informed deep learning algorithm. Investigating non-thermal plasma-surface interaction is feasible due to the low bulk temperature in the discharge region. To investigate the role of plasma-nanoparticle interaction on enhancing the reaction kinetics, we will focus on ammonia cracking to generate clean hydrogen over earth-abundant, non-critical metallic nanoparticles, which is of great significance for decarbonization. We hypothesize that (1) reactive radicals interacting with surface reaction species via Eley–Rideal mechanism will significantly lower the energetics of the potential rate-limiting step of nitrogen formation; (2) the surface will be charged heterogeneously under non-thermal plasma conditions and the charged site will lower the energetics of ammonia cracking through Langmuir– Hinshelwood mechanism; (3) vibrationally excited ammonia will further promote the initial N-H bond cleavage. To access the hypothesis, we will (1) reveal the surface charge effects on tunning the reaction energetics via interpretable, physics-informed deep learning accelerated density functional theory (DFT) calculations; (2) determine the reactive radicals interacting with surface reaction species on tuning the reaction energetics via DFT; (3) reveal the surface charge effects on tunning the reaction energetics via DFT and deep learning models, (4) quantify how vibrationally excited species, reactive radicals, and surface charging effects on enhancing the catalysis via developing DFT-based microkinetic modeling (MKM) and active learning. Deep and active learning of plasma-nanoparticle interactions effects on enhancing ammonia cracking to generate hydrogen represents a new paradigm for designing high performance plasma materials. The fundamental science of how plasma-nanoparticle interactions will change the plasma kinetics and will improve the energy efficiency for decarbonization and sustainability. The interpretable and physics-informed machine learning model will accelerate low temperature plasma chemistry and material discovery with physics rules and model interpretation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Physics-Guided Machine Learning (PGML) for Improved Aerostructure Manufacturing

The Physics-Guided Machine Learning (PGML) for Improved Aerostructure Manufacturing project objective is to automatically tune machining parameter predictions from physics-based models using process data and Bayesian machine learning. The intent is to enable a step change in aerospace manufacturing by combining machine learning, physics-based process models, and sensors/data in a comprehensive digital environment that simultaneously considers the computer numerically controlled (CNC) machining center capabilities, the workpiece material and geometry, and the workpiece support (fixturing). The project hypothesis is that this combination will enable improved performance in machining operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Natural Language Processing for Text Based Event Extraction: Identifying Events of Interest Related to Worldwide State-Sponsored Civil Nuclear Power

Beginning in FY20, SRNL was funded by the National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of Defense Nuclear Non-Proliferation Research and Development to develop a prototype natural language processing/natural language understating machine learning-based modeling and analysis pipeline to extract and forecast events of interest from massive open data sources. The working hypothesis within the approach is that contextual shifts in key words and phrases act as indicators of events of interest over time. Therefore, by identifying points in time where contextual shifts occur, events of interest can be extracted along with explicit and implicit connections of entities and activities. The development of the preliminary prototype pipeline proved successful, meriting further testing of the pipeline on more broad topical domains and in a worldwide data environment. Therefore, SRNL, in collaboration with the Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics at Virginia Tech, have continued development with a test case of identifying events of interest related to worldwide state-sponsored civil nuclear power in open data sources. In the first year of this follow-on effort, the team has curated domain-specific data corpuses using an automated scheme and applied the modeling and analysis pipeline. This robust, focused, and efficient approach consists of an ensemble of analyses applied to time dependent word embedding models that are trained on the data corpuses. In this report, the team has demonstrated the capability of the existing pipeline (as development has continued in parallel) by exploring several specific case-studies centered around Rosatom’s international activities regarding the planning, construction, operation, and/or shutdown of nuclear reactors. A basic timeline events has been generated by manually cataloging known “milestone” events that have occurred at reactors in Turkey, Finland, Hungary, and Egypt and compared with the output of the modeling pipeline. In this approach, the team has characterized the lead time using the prototype pipeline, as well as the ability to capture relevant information, which proved 100% successful. A deep dive example of the Akkuyu reactor (Turkey) is presented that shows the breadth of information that can be captured using the approach. In this case study, events were extracted pertaining to the planning/construction of Akkuyu including protests from the population, information campaigns in response to the protests, forged regulatory documents and lawsuits, budgetary/shareholder information, geopolitical tensions, and the various construction milestones. This has demonstrated the pipeline’s utility as a research aid or real-time event extraction tool, where summary-level information and detailed text extractions from millions of articles or Tweets across long time periods can be generated with significantly less effort than current techniques.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗