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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The drivers and predictability of wildfire re-burns in the western United States (US)

Evidence is mounting that the effectiveness of using prescribed burns as a management tactic may be diminishing due to the higher incidence of wildfire re-burns. The development of predictive models of re-burns is thus essential to better understand their primary drivers so that forest management practices can be updated to account for these events. First, we assess the potential for human activity as a driver of re-burns by evaluating re-burn trends both within and outside of the wildland–urban interface (WUI) of the western US. Next, we investigate the predictability of re-burns through the application of both random forest and the explanatory machine learning non-negative matrix factorization using k-means clustering (NMFk) algorithms to predict re-burn occurrence over California based on a number of climate factors. Our findings indicate that while most states showed increasing trends within the WUI when trends were conducted over longer moving windows (e.g. 20 years), California was the only state where the rate of increase was consistently higher in the WUI, indicating a stronger potential for human activity as a driver in that location. Furthermore, we find model performance was found to be robust over most of California (Testing F1 scores = 0.688), although results were highly variable based on EPA level III Ecoregion (F1 scores = 0.0–0.778). Insights provided from this study will lead to a better understanding of climate and human activity drivers of re-burns and how these vary at broad spatial scales so that improvements in forest management practices can be tuned according to the level of change that is expected for a given region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multidecadal Biological Monitoring and Abatement Program assessing human impacts on aquatic ecosystems within the Oak Ridge Reservation in eastern Tennessee, USA

Human activities can be powerful drivers of ecosystem change within catchments. While most long-term catchment studies have been conducted at pristine sites, such studies are less common from sites more impacted by human activity. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Biological Monitoring and Abatement Program (BMAP) was developed in the mid-1980s to (1) assess compliance with environmental regulations, (2) identify causes of adverse ecological impacts, (3) provide data for human and ecological risk assessments, and (4) evaluate the effectiveness of remedial actions taken to mitigate the impacts of contaminants in soils, groundwater, and surface water by documenting ecological recovery on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), a federally owned 33,476-acre site in eastern Tennessee, USA, managed by the U.S. Department of Energy. The ORR is composed of multiple watersheds containing many small to mid-size streams. BMAP uses an integrated approach for determining stream health; its databases include long-term seasonal records of contaminant concentrations in water and biota, data from aquatic toxicity testing, and surveys of macroinvertebrate and fish assemblages from impacted and reference streams. These long-term data provide valuable records of degradation and recovery in catchment ecosystems. Our objective in this work is to describe our study system and data series in order to increase awareness of the availability of these long-term data to the catchment science community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cholesterol-dependent enzyme activity of human TSPO1

The amino acid sequence of the tryptophan-rich sensory proteins (TSPO) is substantially conserved throughout all kingdoms of life. Human mitochondrial TSPO1 (HsTSPO1) binds to porphyrins and steroids, although its interactions with these molecules remains unknown.HsTSPO1 is associated with numerous physiological and pathological disorders, but the underlying molecular mechanisms are unknown. Here, we disclose the finding of human mitochondrial TSPO as a cholesterol-dependent protoporphyrin IX oxygenase. The results of our biochemical characterization are consistent with structural data and evolutionary analysis. The dependence ofHsTSPO1 activity on cholesterol may be the result of the coevolution of this membrane protein with the membrane system. Our study provides a molecular foundation for comprehending the various roles played by mitochondrial TSPO in normal physiological and pathological situations.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Review of the Resuspension of Radioactively Contaminated Particles by Vehicle and Pedestrian Traffic—Current Theory, Practice, Gaps, and Needs

Here, the resuspension of radioactively contaminated particles in a built environment, such as from urban surfaces like foliage, building exteriors, and roadways, is described empirically by current plume and dosimetry models used for hazard assessment and long-term risk purposes. When applying these models to radiological contamination emergencies affecting urban areas, the accuracy of the results for recent contamination deposition is impacted in two main ways. First, the data supporting the underlying resuspension equations was acquired for open, quiescent conditions with no vehicle traffic or human activities, so it is not necessarily representative of the urban environment. Second, mechanical disturbance by winds in urban canyons and during emergency operations caused by vehicle traffic and human activities are not directly considered by the equations. Accordingly, plume and dosimetry models allow the user to input certain compensating values, but the models do not necessarily supply users instructions on what values to use. This manuscript reviews the available literature to comprehensively and consistently pool data for resuspension due to mechanically induced resuspension applicable to urban contamination. Because there are few studies that directly measured radioactive resuspension due to vehicles and pedestrians, this review novelly draws on a range of other studies involving non-radioactive particles, ranging from outdoor air pollution emissions to indoor allergen transport. The results lead to tabulated, recommended values for specific conditions in the emergency phase to help users of plume and dosimetry models maintain the conservativeness needed to properly capture the potential radiation dose posed by mechanically induced resuspension. These values are of benefit to model users until better data are available. The results also suggest the types of data that may result in improved plume and dose modeling.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modern analogs for understanding pollen-vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean mosaic landscape (Balearic Islands, Western Mediterranean)

This paper presents the study of modern pollen analogs from the Balearic Islands. While similar studies have been largely applied to mainland areas, research focused on modern vegetation dynamics on Mediterranean islands remains very rare. In this research, we combine vegetation surveys, pollen analysis and multivariate statistics to understand landscape composition. The main objectives of are: (1) to examine pollen-vegetation relationships in relation to environmental and land-use variables; (2) to understand modern pollen representation in a mosaic landscape structure; and (3) to propose pollen indicators that characterize the primary vegetation types from the Balearic Islands to better interpret past pollen records in Mediterranean island environments. Pollen results and Redundancy Analysis (RDA) distinguish three major groups: (a) Holm oak and box formations; (b) maquis and garrigues; and (c) anthropogenic and open habitats. Landscape form, mean decadal rainfall, mean decadal temperature, fire activity, trampling, slope percentage, wet/flooded soil, saline soil, distance to agropastoral cells, gHM index, domestic herbivory presence, agropastoral use, and soil type are the major variables explaining modern pollen assemblage variation in our research. Poaceae undiff., Plantago sp., Apiaceae undiff., Cerealia-t, and Cichorieae are highly correlated to human activities but should be interpreted cautiously when occurring in low values. Quercus ilex-t, Hypericum, and Buxus are correlated to humid locations while Pistacia, Pinus, Juniperus-t, and Olea to high mean decadal temperatures. Our study indicates how pollen analysis and multivariate analysis are powerful tools for characterizing the mosaic landscape, with special focus on the main vegetation types of the Balearic Islands.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Direct effects of prolonged TNF-α and IL-6 exposure on neural activity in human iPSC-derived neuron-astrocyte co-cultures

Cognitive impairment is one of the many symptoms reported by individuals suffering from long-COVID and other post-viral infection disorders such as myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS). A common factor among these conditions is a sustained immune response and increased levels of inflammatory cytokines. Tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) are two such cytokines that are elevated in patients diagnosed with long-COVID and ME/CFS. In this study, we characterized the changes in neural functionality, secreted cytokine profiles, and gene expression in co-cultures of human iPSC-derived neurons and primary astrocytes in response to prolonged exposure to TNF-α and IL-6. We found that exposure to TNF-α produced both a concentration-independent and concentration-dependent response in neural activity. Burst duration was significantly reduced within a few days of exposure regardless of concentration (1 pg/mL – 100 ng/mL) but returned to baseline after 7 days. Treatment with low concentrations of TNF-α (e.g., 1 and 25 pg/mL) did not lead to changes in the secreted cytokine profile or gene expression but still resulted in significant changes to electrophysiological features such as interspike interval and burst duration. Conversely, treatment with high concentrations of TNF-α (e.g., 10 and 100 ng/mL) led to reduced spiking activity, which may be correlated to changes in neural health, gene expression, and increases in inflammatory cytokine secretion (e.g., IL-1β, IL-4, and CXCL-10) that were observed at higher TNF-α concentrations. Prolonged exposure to IL-6 led to changes in bursting features, with significant reduction in the number of spikes in bursts across a wide range of treatment concentrations (i.e., 1 pg/mL–10 ng/mL). In combination, the addition of IL-6 appears to counteract the changes to neural function induced by low concentrations of TNF-α, while at high concentrations of TNF-α the addition of IL-6 had little to no effect. Conversely, the changes to electrophysiological features induced by IL-6 were lost when the cultures were co-stimulated with TNF-α regardless of the concentration, suggesting that TNF-α may play a more pronounced role in altering neural function. These results indicate that increased concentrations of key inflammatory cytokines associated with long-COVID can directly impact neural function and may be a component of the cognitive impairment associated with long-COVID and other post-viral infection disorders.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Applying the index of watershed integrity to the Matanuska–Susitna basin

The Matanuska-Susitna Borough is the fastest growing region in the State of Alaska and is impacted by a number of human activities. We conducted a multiscale assessment of the stressors facing the borough by developing and mapping the Index of Watershed Integrity (IWI) and Index of Catchment Integrity (the latter considers stressors in areas surrounding individual stream segments exclusive of upstream areas). The assessment coincided with the borough’s stormwater management planning. We adapted the list of anthropogenic stressors used in the original conterminous United States IWI application to reflect the borough’s geography, human activity, and data availability. This analysis also represents an early application of the NHDPlus High Resolution geospatial framework and the first use of the framework in an IWI study. We also explored how remediation of one important stressor, culverts, could impact watershed integrity at the catchment and watershed scales. Overall, we found that the integrity scores for the Matanuska– Susitna basin were high compared to the conterminous United States. Low integrity scores did occur in the rapidly developing Wasilla–Palmer core area. We also found that culvert remediation had a larger proportional impact in catchments with fewer stressors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A harmonized global nighttime light dataset 1992–2018

Nighttime light (NTL) data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP)/Operational Linescan System (OLS) and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite provide a great opportunity for monitoring human activities from regional to global scales. Despite the valuable records of nightscape from DMSP (1992–2013) and VIIRS (2012–2018), the potential of the historical archive of NTL observations has not been fully explored because of the severe inconsistency between DMSP and VIIRS. In this study, we generated an integrated and consistent NTL dataset at the global scale by harmonizing the inter-calibrated NTL observations from the DMSP data and the simulated DMSP-like NTL observations from the VIIRS data. The generated global DMSP NTL time-series data (1992–2018) show consistent temporal trends. This temporally extended DMSP NTL dataset provides valuable support for various studies related to human activities such as electricity consumption and urban extent dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Widespread Wildfires Over the Western United States in 2020 Linked to Emissions Reductions During COVID-19

Widespread wildfires struck western United States in 2020, directly damaging properties and threatening human lives. Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic rapidly spread across the globe in 2020, which disrupted human activities and resulted in substantial reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Here, we investigate the effects of the emissions reductions of aerosols, precursors, and greenhouse gases during the pandemic on wildfire weather conditions in 2020 over western United States by using an earth system model together with observational data. We show that the COVID-19 emissions reductions in model experiments increased surface air temperature and decreased precipitation and relative humidity due to a weakened moisture transport, which explains 10-40% of the observed increase in the risk of wildfires over western United States in 2020. In conclusion, this study suggests that COVID-19-related abrupt emissions reductions have an unexpected influence on wildfires, highlighting a different but important role of human activities in affecting wildfire risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reproduction drives changes in space use and habitat selection in a highly adaptable invasive mammal

Abstract For ungulates, it is not well understood how the interaction between habitat and reproduction affects movement behavior, space use, and habitat selection. We used known parturition (farrowing) data to validate First Passage Time (FPT) movement analysis to identify wild pig (Sus scrofa) parturition events from data collected with GPS collars. We examined home range and habitat selection during three physiologically distinct time periods in the reproductive cycle: late-gestation; farrowing; and neonate-care period. Sows exhibited a behavioral change 1-2 days prior to farrowing, suggesting FPT analysis can reliably identify parturition events for wide-ranging species that have a focused birthing area. Home range was smallest during the farrowing period, likely reflective of nest building, parturition, and protection of neonates. Home range size during the neonate-care period was intermediate between the late-gestation and farrowing periods, indicative of offspring care that may restrict maternal movement. Across all periods, sows avoided developed areas that have sparse canopy and ground cover and are associated with human activities. During late-gestation, sows avoided pine forests that have an open understory and less vegetative cover. During late-gestation and neonate-care, sows selected bottomland hardwood forests, habitat associated with ample food, cover, and water. During farrowing and neonate-care periods, sows selected upland hardwood forests, habitat with high quality food and cover for neonates. The physiological requirements of reproduction drive female habitat selection and spatial scale of movement patterns associated with parturition. Our study contributes to delineation of the appropriate scale at which to analyze movement data to provide insight about where individuals chose to place their home range, how much space to use, and how they use resources on the landscape to maximize reproductive success and fitness.

Zoology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparative evaluation of antimicrobial activity of human granulysin, bovine and porcine NK-lysins against Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157:H7

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157:H7 (O157) is a foodborne pathogen causing human disease ranging from hemorrhagic colitis and hemolytic uremic syndrome to kidney failure, while remaining harmless to cattle, its primary reservoir. The severity of the human disease associated mainly with Shiga toxin production and a global emergence of antibiotic resistant STEC highlights the need for effective non-antibiotic, pre-harvest strategies to reduce O157 in cattle, the principal source of human infection. Towards this goal three synthetic antimicrobial peptides (AMPs): human granulysin (hGRNL), bovine NK-lysin (bNK2A), and porcine NK-lysin (pNKL), were tested in vitro against O157 isolates. As expected, circular dichroism spectroscopy findings were consistent with a predominantly α-helical conformation for all three AMPs in an environment mimicking bacterial outer surface or liposaccharides. The minimum inhibitory concentrations (MIC) and minimum bactericidal concentrations of hGRNL (200 μM), bNK2A (12.5 μM against strain 86–24 and 25 μM against EDL933), and pNKL (6.25 μM) were determined using the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute broth microdilution method in Müeller-Hinton broth (cation-adjusted). The bNK2A and pNKL AMPs did not induce Shiga toxin expression in O157 at MIC, as there was a significant decrease or no change in toxin expression following 4- or 20 h incubation with the AMPs; bNK2A p <0.0001 (4 h) and p = 0.4831 (20 h); pNKL p <0.0001 (4 h) and p = 0.0001 (20 h). Propidium iodide uptake assay revealed faster O157 membrane damage or killing kinetics with bNK2A and pNKL compared to hGRNL. Nonetheless, transmission electron microscopy demonstrated that all three AMPs mediated damage to O157 membranes. In contrast, the three AMPs showed minimal cytotoxicity (<2%) against cattle red blood cells at tested concentrations (0.39–50 μM). Overall, our results demonstrate the potential for bNK2A and pNKL to be further developed into novel non-antibiotic agents to reduce O157 shedding in cattle.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Geolocation tracking for human identification and activity recognition using radar deep transfer learning

Abstract Human identification and activity recognition (HIAR) is crucial for many applications, such as surveillance, smart homes, and assisted living. As a sensing modality, radar has many unique characteristics including privacy protection, and contactless sensing. Single classification systems have shown to be accurate, but for long‐term solutions both human identification (ID) and human activity recognition (HAR) will need to be integrated in one system where it can be utilised simultaneously. In this article, a novel radar‐based human tracking system is presented where three classifiers are utilised to identify the subject and his/her behaviour. For any kind of motion, the system tracks the subject and detect the type of his/her motion. Based on the detected type of motion, the three classifiers are utilised for identification and activity recognition. The classifiers are built utilising deep transfer learning where three radar datasets are established to train and validate each of the deep networks. To recognise six activities and 10 human subjects, the three classifiers, namely, HAR, Gait ID, and Heart sound ID, achieve superior performance compared to the best reported results in literature with classification accuracies of 97.6%, 100%, and 41.8% respectively. Three successful examples are presented to demonstrate the introduced concept.

Alkasimi, Ahmad↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advancing hydrogen production: A comprehensive review of wastewater reforming techniques, feedstocks, and opportunities

Wastewater is produced across nearly all human activities and requires treatment to safeguard human health and the natural environment. Treatment of wastewater often requires a large amount of thermal energy, resulting in wasted heat after the treatment process. Because hydrocarbon reforming needs both water and heat, the integration of wastewater treatment with hydrocarbon reforming, a process that produces synthesis gas rich in hydrogen, offers an excellent opportunity to utilize this waste heat and the impurities in wastewater to produce valuable hydrogen gas, to minimize waste from industrial processes, and to integrate water treatment with the hydrogen economy. Yet, no comprehensive literature review has been conducted to examine the integration of reforming and wastewater. To address this lack, we summarize the variety of catalytic reforming techniques available in the open literature and review the current literature on wastewater reforming with these techniques. Subsequently, we conduct a review of common types of wastewater contaminants and their possible effects on reforming catalyst performance and life. Lastly, three underexamined wastewater sources are identified, namely, oilfield wastewater, geothermal water, and mining and mineral processing wastewater, and their potential for future study as a reforming feedstock is examined.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neutral Mode Dominates the Forced Global and Regional Surface Temperature Response in the Past and Future

Abstract Using a large suite of Green's function perturbation experiments, we construct the emergent dynamical operator for surface temperature and extract the most excitable mode. The leading mode turns out to be the most dominant mode excited by the climate forcing of doubling CO 2 , alone capturing 56% of the total spatial variances of the surface temperature response. The pattern of the leading mode is partly organized by the atmospheric annular modes in both hemispheres, and further modulated by the feedbacks from ocean circulations. Though derived from a single model, the leading mode can capture the spatio‐temporal variabilities of the global mean surface temperature over the past century in both the CMIP6 model simulations and observations. Moreover, the leading mode is most efficiently excited by radiative forcings from the midlatitude bands centered around 45°N and 25°S, where most human activities take place, suggesting the potency of human influence on the climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Long-Term Dynamics of Atmospheric Sulfur Dioxide in Urban and Rural Regions of China: Urbanization and Policy Impacts

High levels of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) due to human activities pose a serious air pollution issue in China, especially in urban agglomerations. However, limited research has investigated the impact of anthropogenic emissions on higher SO 2 concentrations in urban regions compared to rural areas in China. Here, we analyzed the trends in SO 2 concentrations from 1980 to 2021 in China using the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) dataset. SO 2 column concentrations from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) during the years 2007–2021 were also examined for validation and comparison purposes. Eight representative areas, including four urban regions (Pearl River Delta [PRD], Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei [BTH], Yangtze River Delta [YRD], and Sichuan Basin [SCB]) and four rural regions (Northeast Region [NER], Mongolian Region [MR], West Region [WR], and Tibetan Plateau Region [TR]) were selected for the analysis. Overall, a significant but fluctuating increase in SO 2 concentrations over China was observed during 1980–2021. During 1980–1997 and 2000–2010, there was an increase in SO 2 concentration, while during 1997–2000 and 2010–2021, a decreasing trend was observed. The average increase in SO 2 concentration was approximately 16 times higher in urban regions than in the rural background. We also found that SO 2 dynamics were highly associated with expansion of urban areas, population density, and gross domestic product. Nonetheless, since 2007, SO 2 concentrations have exhibited a downward trend, which is mainly attributed to the air pollution policies implemented by the Chinese government. Our findings highlight the need for further studies on the impact of SO 2 on regional climate change in China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

In vitro toxicity assessment of uranium particulates on different human lung epithelial cell models

Inhalation of uranium aerosols produced via human activities such as mining can pose a threat to human respiratory systems. Uranium oxide particulates emit short-range alpha particles that elicit DNA and direct damage, beyond associated physiochemical heavy-metal toxicity, to internal epithelial tissues. The availability of reliable in vitro models to study radiation exposure can greatly enhance our ability to understand and combat the biological impacts of exposure. However, the toxicological effects of alpha emissions and/or the oxidation states of uranium particulates vary across different human lung epithelial cell models and have not been systematically compared. We have endeavored to address this limitation by comparing impacts in three different human lung cell models: primary human bronchial and tracheal epithelial cells, primary human small airway epithelial cells, and human adenocarcinoma alveolar basal epithelial cells. Other studies have mainly investigated the toxicity of depleted uranium. Here, we compared the exposure of uranium oxide particulates (U 3 O 8 and UO 3 ) of different enrichment states on the chosen cell systems. Each cell model was exposed to 0.1, 1, 10, 50, 100, and 500 µg/mL of depleted U 3 O 8 , highly-enriched U 3 O 8 , and natural UO 3 particulates for 24 hours in submerged monolayer cultures. We compared viability and superoxide dismutase activity results across cell lines and uranium enrichment/ oxidative states. The results showed that 1) the oxide state of the particulates affected cell viability, implying that uranium’s different oxidation states contribute to different toxicological responses, and 2) each cell model reacts differently when exposed to uranium oxides, which may provide insights into the mechanistic processes associated with the exposure of radiological particulates on different biological systems. For instance, increased uranium enrichment corresponds to increased toxicity for the primary cells, but not for the immortalized cells. Our study shows that a holistic approach that incorporates similarities between model systems and types of radionuclides is required to truly develop empirical solutions for radiation exposure.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatially Adaptive Tunable Lighting Control System with Expanded Wellness and Energy Saving Benefits

Lighting design is becoming increasingly complex, including active dimming for energy savings and spectral tuning for human wellbeing. Modern commercial lighting control systems are already difficult to use, and maintain, and even with so-called Smart Lighting, optimizing light settings is rapidly exceeding the capabilities of direct human control, limiting the adoption of lighting control systems. The growing importance of Occupancy Centric Controls (OCC) for advanced building management systems can be applied to the development of autonomous lighting system controls needed to drive the adoption of advanced lighting controls for improved adaptive “sculpted illumination” for both greater energy savings and broader human wellbeing perspectives. This project, led by Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, entitled “Spatially adaptive tunable lighting control system with expanded wellness and energy saving benefits” will develop and test an entirely new platform for automated optimized lighting design and control that requires little or no human engagement, yet contours lighting profiles automatically to minimize lighting energy use. We call this approach to lighting control “dynamic light sculpting” since the right amount of illumination is automatically delivered to occupants in real time. Since the system uses new, privacy-preserving occupant position and pose detection technologies developed by Rensselaer for broad OCC building applications, the control system will analyze how to deliver the right amount of the right type of illumination only where and when it is needed based these OCC platforms. To create these powerful autonomous lighting control platforms, the project will integrate evolving augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) tools with sophisticated lighting and interior design toolkits to create interactive lighting design and control simulators. Using the quickly growing paradigm of digital twins, these tools will integrate light fixture properties, occupancy sensor data, interior design data, and lighting specifications to accurately visualize how various design concepts interact with simulated yet realistic human activities that occur in commercial office buildings of various types. These advanced digital twin design and simulation tools will be combined with a new class of digitally-programmable LED lighting fixtures that can dynamically change the spectral content and direction of light emission. When fully integrated, the new autonomous lighting control system will take all of the guesswork out of optimizing light quality while minimizing energy consumption. Digital twin tools will simplify the design, installation, commissioning, operation, and maintenance of future energy-efficient lighting systems. It should be possible to reduce lighting energy costs from 40% to 70% with OCC based dynamic light sculpting systems. The work will be led by the Center for Lighting Enabled Systems and Applications (LESA) and the Center for Architectural Science and Ecology (CASE), both at Renssealer Polytechnic Institute; Lumileds, a global leader in the development of advanced LED systems; and HKS, a leading global architecture design firm. This interdisciplinary project team’s experience includes all of the design simulation tools, VR/AR digital twin visualization technology, advanced occupancy sensing technology, and complex control system design capabilities that will revolutionize lighting design and control technology to autonomously deliver high-quality lighting that improves human health and wellbeing while simultaneously maximizing lighting energy savings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical semi-Markov models with duration-aware dynamics for activity sequences

Residential electricity demand at granular scales is driven by what people do and for how long. Accurately forecasting this demand for applications like microgrid management and demand response therefore requires generative models for activities that can produce realistic daily activity sequences, capturing both the timing and duration of human behavior. This paper develops a generative model of human activity sequences using nationally representative time-use diaries at a 10-min resolution. We use this model to quantify which demographic factors are most critical for improving predictive performance. We propose a hierarchical semi-Markov framework that addresses two key modeling challenges. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov router learns the patterns of “which activity comes next.” Second, a semi-Markov hazard component explicitly models activity durations, capturing “how long” activities realistically last. To ensure statistical stability when data are sparse, the model pools information across related demographic groups and time blocks. The entire framework is trained and evaluated using survey design weights to ensure our findings are representative of the U.S. population. On a held-out test set, we demonstrate that explicitly modeling durations with the hazard component provides a substantial and statistically significant improvement over purely Markovian models. Furthermore, our analysis reveals a clear hierarchy of demographic factors: Sex, Day-Type, and Household Size provide the largest predictive gains, while Region and Season, though important for energy calculations, contribute little to predicting the activity sequence itself. The result is an interpretable and robust generator of synthetic activity traces, providing a high-fidelity foundation for downstream energy systems modeling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗