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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

History of the Beer Game

This article describes the history of the Beer Game. By triangulating information from literature, archival analysis, and interviews with experts in the field, the main changes in the game over its almost 70-year history are identified. The article discusses three aspects of the game: 1) its structure (phases of its history, stocks and flows, parameters, etc.); 2) the process for playing the game; and 3) the game debrief. The structure of the Beer Game, and the process for running it, have stabilized over the years into what is now a de facto standard approach. Additional work is needed in the game debrief, specifically in the clarification of key insights and messages (depending on the context of the use of the game), in how to communicate such messages to different audiences, and in the development of support materials for its delivery. © 2024 UChicago Argonne, LLC. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Learning macroscopic internal variables and history dependence from microscopic models

This paper concerns the study of history dependent phenomena in heterogeneous materials in a two-scale setting where the material is specified at a fine microscopic scale of heterogeneities that is much smaller than the coarse macroscopic scale of application. Here, we specifically study a polycrystalline medium where each grain is governed by crystal plasticity while the solid is subjected to macroscopic dynamic loads. The theory of homogenization allows us to solve the macroscale problem directly with a constitutive relation that is defined implicitly by the solution of the microscale problem. However, the homogenization leads to a highly complex history dependence at the macroscale, one that can be quite different from that at the microscale. In this paper, we examine the use of machine-learning, and especially deep neural networks, to harness data generated by repeatedly solving the finer scale model to: (i) gain insights into the history dependence and the macroscopic internal variables that govern the overall response; and (ii) to create a computationally efficient surrogate of its solution operator, that can directly be used at the coarser scale with no further modeling. We do so by introducing a recurrent neural operator (RNO), and show that: (i) the architecture and the learned internal variables can provide insight into the physics of the macroscopic problem; and (ii) that the RNO can provide multiscale, specifically FE 2 , accuracy at a cost comparable to a conventional empirical constitutive relation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Plant–soil feedback under drought: does history shape the future?

Plant–soil feedback (PSF) is widely recognised as a driver of plant community composition, but understanding of its response to drought remains in its infancy. Here, we provide a conceptual framework for the role of drought in PSF, considering plant traits, drought severity, and historical precipitation over ecological and evolutionary timescales. Comparing experimental studies where plants and microbes do or do not share a drought history (through co-sourcing or conditioning), we hypothesise that plants and microbes with a shared drought history experience more positive PSF under subsequent drought. To reflect real-world responses to drought, future studies need to explicitly include plant–microbial co-occurrence and potential co-adaptation and consider the precipitation history experienced by both plants and microbes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurements of fusion reaction history in inertially confined burning plasmas

Direct evidence of inertially confined fusion ignition appears in the abrupt temperature increase and consequent rapid increase in the thermonuclear burn rate as seen in the reaction history. The Gamma Reaction History (GRH) and Gas Cherenkov Detector (GCD) diagnostics are γ-based Cherenkov detectors that provide high quality measurements of deuterium–tritium fusion γ ray production and are, thus, capable of monitoring the thermonuclear burn rate. Temporal shifts in both peak burn time and burn width have been observed during recent high-yield shots (yields greater than 1017 neutrons) and are essential diagnostic signatures of the ignition process. While the current GRH and GCD detectors are fast enough to sense the changes of reaction history due to alpha heating, they do not have enough dynamic range to capture the onset of alpha heating. The next generation of instrumentation, GRH-15m, is proposed to increase the yield-rate coverage to measure the onset of alpha-heating.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

The dark side of galaxy stellar populations – II. The dependence of star-formation histories on halo mass and on the scatter of the main sequence

Nearby galaxies are the end result of their cosmological evolution, which is predicted to be influenced by the growth of their host dark matter haloes. This co-evolution potentially leaves signatures in present-day observed galaxy properties, which might be essential to further understand how the growth and properties of galaxies are connected to those of their host haloes. In this work, we study the evolutionary histories of nearby galaxies both in terms of their host haloes and the scatter of the star-forming main sequence by investigating their time-resolved stellar populations using absorption optical spectra drawn from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We find that galaxy star-formation histories depend on the masses of their host haloes, and hence they shape the evolution of the star-forming main sequence over cosmic time. Additionally, we also find that the scatter around the z = 0 star-forming main sequence is not (entirely) stochastic, as galaxies with currently different star-formation rates have experienced, on average, different star-formation histories. Furthermore, our findings suggest that dark matter haloes might play a key role in modulating the evolution of star formation in galaxies, and thus of the main sequence, and further demonstrate that galaxies at different evolutionary stages contribute to the observed scatter of this relation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling the purely young star formation history of the SMC’s northeastern shell from colour–magnitude diagram fitting

ABSTRACT We obtain a quantitative star formation history (SFH) of a shell-like structure (‘shell’) located in the northeastern part of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC). We use the Survey of the MAgellanic Stellar History to derive colour–magnitude diagrams (CMDs), reaching below the oldest main-sequence turnoff, from which we compute the SFHs with CMD-fitting techniques. We present, for the first time, a novel technique that uses red clump (RC) stars from the CMDs to assess and account for the SMC’s line-of-sight depth effect present during the SFH derivation. We find that accounting for this effect recovers a more accurate SFH. We quantify an $\sim$7 kpc line-of-sight depth present in the CMDs, in good agreement with depth estimates from RC stars in the northeastern SMC. By isolating the stellar content of the northeastern shell and incorporating the line-of-sight depth into our calculations, we obtain an unprecedentedly detailed SFH. We find that the northeastern shell is primarily composed of stars younger than $\sim$500 Myr, with significant star formation enhancements around $\sim$250 and $\sim$450 Myr. These young stars are the main contributors to the shell’s structure. We show synchronicity between the northeastern shell’s SFH with the Large Magellanic Cloud’s (LMC) northern arm, which we attribute to the interaction history of the SMC with the LMC and the Milky Way (MW) over the past $\sim$500 Myr. Our results highlight the complex interplay of ram pressure stripping and the influence of the MW’s circumgalactic medium in shaping the SMC’s northeastern shell.

Sakowska, Joanna D. (ORCID:0000000215941466)↗
DOE OSTI2025

The impact of varying inhomogeneous reionization histories on metrics of Ly α opacity

The epoch of hydrogen reionization is complete by z = 5⁠, but its progression at higher redshifts is uncertain. Measurements of Ly α forest opacity show large scatter at z < 6⁠, suggestive of spatial fluctuations in neutral fraction, temperature, or ionizing background, either individually or in combination. However, there are degeneracies in the impact of such fluctuations, necessitating careful modelling. We develop a framework for modelling the reionization history and associated temperature fluctuations, with the intention of incorporating ionizing background fluctuations at a later time. We generate several reionization histories using seminumerical code AMBER, and implement them in the Nyx cosmological hydrodynamics code to examine the impact on the evolution of gas within the simulation and the associated metrics of the Ly α forest opacity. We find that the pressure smoothing scale within the intergalactic medium is strongly correlated with the adiabatic index of the temperature–density relation. We find that while models with 20 000 K photoheating at reionization are better able to reproduce the shape of the observed z = 5 1D flux power spectrum than colder ones, they fail to match the highest wavenumbers. The simulated autocorrelation function and optical depth distributions are systematically low and narrow, respectively, compared to the observed values, but are in better agreement when the reionization history is longer in duration, more symmetric in its distribution of reionization redshifts, or if there are remaining neutral regions at z < 6.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Otolith 87 Sr / 86 Sr identifies natal origin, movement and life history of Burbot Lota lota in the Kootenai River following 45 years of impoundment

Abstract Hydropower has long been an effective form of renewable energy, but the development of the resource has negatively impacted fishes throughout the world. Formulating recovery plans to mitigate these effects requires a firm understanding of species‐specific provenance, life history and life stage habitat requirements. However, the importance of this information is often only recognised after a substantial population decline, when obtaining it becomes demographically challenging. We provide a case study for this scenario and present a post hoc approach to gain insight into these critical data gaps for Burbot Lota lota in the upper Kootenai River in Montana and British Columbia. The population once supported a robust tribal and recreational harvest but declined following impoundment and these fisheries have remained closed or curtailed for nearly 20 years. The reasons for the decline are unknown and actions to assist recovery have been constrained by limited information regarding natal origin, life history and habitat use. We addressed this issue using strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) in otoliths collected over four decades in Lake Koocanusa, the reservoir on the Kootenai River above Libby Dam. Due to the geologic heterogeneity of the basin and resulting variation in water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr, the assignment probability for Burbot to their region of natal origin approached unity. Otolith 87 Sr/ 86 Sr also indicated the population was comprised of mainstem‐ and tributary‐origin forms and their relative abundance changed over time. Mainstem Burbot was most abundant during the 1970s and 2000s, whereas tributary forms dominated between these periods. We suggest ecosystem changes following impoundment contributed to this shift in life history forms and the overall decline of the population. Our findings underscore the need for additional investigations of these impacts to guide restoration efforts.

Dunnigan, James L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tunneling between Multiple Histories as a Solution to the Information Loss Paradox

The information loss paradox associated with black hole Hawking evaporation is an unresolved problem in modern theoretical physics. In a recent brief essay, we revisited the evolution of the black hole entanglement entropy via the Euclidean path integral (EPI) of the quantum state and allow for the branching of semi-classical histories along the Lorentzian evolution. We posited that there exist at least two histories that contribute to EPI, where one is an information-losing history, while the other is an information-preserving one. At early times, the former dominates EPI, while at the late times, the latter becomes dominant. By doing so, we recovered the essence of the Page curve, and thus, the unitarity, albeit with the turning point, i.e., the Page time, much shifted toward the late time. In this full-length paper, we fill in the details of our arguments and calculations to strengthen our notion. One implication of this modified Page curve is that the entropy bound may thus be violated. We comment on the similarity and difference between our approach and that of the replica wormholes and the islands’ conjectures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Searching for Conformity Across Cosmic Time with Local Group and Local Volume Star Formation Histories

Conformity denotes the correlation of properties between pairs of galaxies as a function of separation. Correlations between properties such as the star formation rate (SFR), stellar mass, and specific star formation rate (sSFR) have implications for the impact of environment upon galaxy formation and evolution. Conformity between primary galaxies and satellites within the same dark matter halo has been well documented in simulations and observations. However, the existence of conformity at greater distances—known as two-halo conformity—remains uncertain. We investigate whether galaxies in the Local Volume to a distance of 4 Mpc show conformity by examining the SFR, sSFR, stellar mass, and quenched fraction as a function of physical separation. Making use of the star formation histories of these galaxies, we then extend this analysis back in time to offer the first probe of conformity inside our past light cone. At the present day, we find that the stellar mass or sSFR of a galaxy correlates with the median SFR of neighboring galaxies at a separation of 2–3 Mpc. At a lookback time of 1 Gyr, we find a correlation with the quenched fraction of neighboring galaxies, again at a 2–3 Mpc separation. These signals of conformity likely arise from the differences between the recent star formation histories of Local Group dwarf galaxies and those outside the Local Group. As current and future missions including JWST, Rubin, and Roman expand the sample of Local Volume galaxies, tests of conformity using star formation histories will provide an important tool for exploring spatiotemporal correlations between galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Martensitic transformation induced strength-ductility synergy in additively manufactured maraging 250 steel by thermal history engineering

Maraging steels are known for their exceptional strength but suffer from limited work hardening and ductility. Here, in this study, we report an intermittent printing strategy to tailor the microstructure and mechanical properties of maraging 250 steel via tuning the thermal history during wire-arc directed energy deposition. By introducing a dwell time between adjacent layers, the maraging 250 steel is cooled below the martensite start temperature, triggering thermally-driven martensitic transformation during the printing process. Thermal cycling during subsequent layer deposition results in the formation of reverted austenite which shows a refined microstructure and induces elemental segregation between martensite and reverted austenite. The Ni enrichment in the austenite promotes stabilization of the reverted austenite upon cooling to room temperature. The reverted austenite is metastable during deformation, leading to strain-induced martensitic transformation under loading. Specifically, a 3 min interlayer dwell time produces a maraging 250 steel with approximately 8% reverted austenite, resulting in improved work hardening via martensitic transformation induced plasticity during deformation. Meanwhile, the higher cooling rate and refined prior austenite grains lead to substantially refined martensitic grains (by approximately fivefold) together with an increased dislocation density. With 3 min interlayer dwell time, the yield strength of the printed maraging 250 steel increases from 836 MPa to 990 MPa, and the uniform elongation is doubled from 3.2% to 6.5%. This intermittent deposition strategy demonstrates the potential to tune the microstructure of maraging steels for achieving strength-ductility synergy by engineering the thermal history during additive manufacturing.

Additive manufacturing↗
DOE OSTI2026

Robust calibration of non-perturbative models with history matching

We apply, for the first time, Bayes Linear Emulation and History Matching to the calibration of non-perturbative models in Monte Carlo event generators. In contrast to the usual approach of "Monte Carlo tuning", History Matching does not result in best-fit plus ellipsoidal parameter uncertainty estimates but instead identifies all parameter space regions that are consistent with data. This approach leads to a systematic and robust quantification of parametric uncertainties in the models, especially in those challenging cases where different, possibly disjoint, regions of parameter space deliver similar results, which are usually not properly treated with current methodology. We highlight the power of this method with the hadronisation models available through Sherpa : the built-in cluster fragmentation Ahadic and string fragmentation through an interface to Pythia .

Iskauskas, Andrew [Durham U. (main)] (ORCID:000000↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cosmogenic surface exposure ( 10 Be) dating of raised beaches in Marguerite bay, Antarctic Peninsula: Implications for relative sea-level history

Understanding the dynamics of ice mass loss in polar regions is crucial for deciphering climate change and Glacio Isostatic Adjustment patterns. This study focuses on Marguerite Bay, located in the south-central Antarctic Peninsula. We dated raised beaches to investigate relative sea-level changes using the cosmogenic surface exposure ( 10 Be) method. Previous studies have provided valuable insights into the region's glacial history, but limitations in dating techniques and age estimates necessitate further investigation. By analysing raised shingle beaches in Gaul Cove of Horseshoe Island and the southern coast of Calmette Bay, this research aims to contribute relative sea-level change history for these areas. In Horseshoe Island's Gaul Cove, raised beaches clustered on prominent steps reveal a 15 m relative sea-level change over the last 3.31 ka. Differently, Calmette Bay exhibits a 36 m relative sea-level fall over the last 7.29 ka. Finally, these findings indicate significant and differential glacial-isostatic adjustments in both regions during the middle and late Holocene. Additionally, our data reveal accelerated sea-level fall periods corresponding to Holocene deglaciation and glacial advance events, indicating the shorelines' relative sea-level change sensitivity to climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Mystery of Baselevel Controls in the Incision History of the Central Colorado Plateau

Erosion can remain active and changing in landscapes long after tectonic drivers have ceased, potentially due to local-geologic controls, climate changes, or geodynamics. We present new fluvial incision-rate histories and terrain analyses of the Colorado River system through the central Colorado Plateau to understand what has caused the variable erosion across this post-orogenic landscape. Results from new cosmogenic and luminescence dating of fluvial terrace and upland gravel deposits in Glen and Meander Canyons establish incision-rate histories that are marked by an Early-Middle Pleistocene erosion hiatus, followed by ~200 m of rapid incision over the last ~350 kyr. Projection of fluvial topography from above knickzones of the Colorado River drainage system roughly agree with the observed magnitude of recent incision and reflect a common baselevel fall from Pliocene river integration through Grand Canyon, which is still propagating through the drainage. A response-time model indicates that baselevel fall from integration likely took 2–4 Myr to reach the central Colorado Plateau and 100s kyr to travel across the study area, potentially accounting for incision rate changes in the fluvial terrace records of Meander and Glen Canyons. The upstream-migrating incision has likely been partitioned into multiple waves across the landscape due to the local geologic controls of lava damming, salt tectonics, and heterogenous bedrock. As baselevel fall from Pliocene Colorado River integration diffuses upstream, it can only account for perhaps a quarter of the total ~2 km of exhumation in the central Colorado Plateau, demanding an unknown driver for significant erosion in the Pliocene.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Terrestrial atmospheric ion implantation occurred in the nearside lunar regolith during the history of Earth’s dynamo

Light volatile elements in lunar regolith are thought to be a mixture of the solar wind and Earth’s atmosphere, the latter sourced in the absence of geomagnetic field. However, the extent to which both the current and primitive geodynamo influence the transport of terres trial ions still remains unclear, and this uncertainty is further complicated by the enigmatic composition and poorly constrained location of the Eoarchean exosphere. Here we use 3-D MHD numerical simulations with contemporary magnetized and Archean unmagnetized atmospheres to investigate how Earth’s intrinsic magnetic field affects this transfer, aiming to constrain how and when the lunar isotopic signature provides a record of Earth’s pale-oatmosphere. We find that atmospheric transfer is efficient only when the Moon is within Earth’s magnetotail. The non-solar contribution to the lunar soil is best explained by implantation during the long history of the geodynamo with present-day solar wind conditions, rather than any short, putatively unmagnetized epoch of early Archean Earth. This further suggests the history of the terrestrial atmosphere, spanning billions of years, could be preserved in buried lunar soils. Our results indicate that the elemental abundances of Apollo samples are very sensitive to Earth’s hydrodynamic exobase altitude, which, at the time of ion implantation, was never smaller than 190 km.

Atmospheric dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2024

The center for nonlinear studies: A personal history

The Center for Nonlinear Studies (CNLS) was an integral part of my scientific career starting as a Postdoctoral Fellow in 1983 up to my tenure as CNLS Director from 2004 to 2015. As such, I experienced a number of scientific phases of CNLS through almost four decades of foundation, evolution, and transition. Throughout this entire interval, the inspiration and influence of David Campbell guided my way. A proper history of CNLS encompassing all of the many contributors to the CNLS story is beyond my means or purpose here. Instead, I present the history as I experienced it. I emphasize the main scientific accomplishments achieved at CNLS over more than 40 years, but I will also attempt to describe and quantify the attributes that made and continue to make the Center for Nonlinear Studies a special institution of remarkable impact and longevity. Throughout its existence, CNLS owes much to the enduring legacy of David Campbell who laid down the foundations and operating principles that have made it so successful.

Ecke, Robert E. (ORCID:0000000177725876)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ultra-fast single-crystal CVD diamonds in the particle time-of-flight (PTOF) detector for low yield burn-history measurements on the NIF (invited)

The Particle Time of Flight (PTOF) diagnostic is a chemical vapor deposition diamond-based detector and is the only diagnostic for measuring nuclear bang times of low yield (<1013) shots on the National Ignition Facility. Recently, a comprehensive study of detector impulse responses revealed certain detectors with very fast and consistent impulse responses with a rise time of <50 ps, enabling low yield burn history measurements. At the current standoff of 50 cm, this measurement is possible with fast 14 MeV neutrons from deuterium–tritium (DT) fusion plasmas. PTOF-inferred DT burn width numbers compare well with widths inferred from the gamma reaction history diagnostic on mid-yield (1013–1015) shots, where both systems are capable of making this measurement. These new capabilities could be extended to 2.5 MeV deuterium–deuterium neutrons from D plasmas and to even lower yield by reducing the detector standoff distance to 10 cm; a design for this is also presented.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

The next-generation particle x-ray temporal diagnostic for simultaneous time-resolved measurements of nuclear-burn and x-ray emission histories in support of basic-science and inertial confinement fusion experiments at OMEGA

The next-generation Particle X-ray Temporal Diagnostic (PXTD) has been implemented for simultaneous measurements of x-ray, charged particle, and neutron emission histories from a wide range of inertial confinement fusion and high energy density plasma experiments, demonstrating excellent timing accuracy and greatly improved experimental flexibility. The key changes to the previously fielded system are a redesigned set of thin foil filters in front of the scintillators and individual neutral density filters for each region of the detector. The fully implemented PXTD system can provide unique information about the evolution of ion and electron temperatures in multi-ion and kinetic-physics experiments, proton radiography experiments, and DT experiments executed at the OMEGA facility. The system has 35 ps time resolution and negligible relative timing uncertainty between measured emission history signals. The first use of the upgraded four-channel PXTD system during a set of D 3 He-filled silica-glass implosions on OMEGA captured electron temperatures with a minimum uncertainty of 0.5 keV and resolved both the relative timings and widths of neutron, proton, and x-ray peaks within a single recorded image.

Evans, T. E. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (M↗