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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

Fatigue loading history reconstruction based on the rainflow technique

Methods are considered of reducing a non-random fatigue loading history to a concise description and then of reconstructing a time history similar to the original. In particular, three methods of reconstruction based on a rainflow cycle counting matrix are presented. A rainflow matrix consists of the numbers of cycles at various peak and valley combinations. Two methods are based on a two-dimensional rainflow matrix, and the third on a three-dimensional rainflow matrix. Histories reconstructed by any of these methods produce a rainflow matrix identical to that of the original history, and the resulting time history is expected to produce a fatigue life similar to that for the original. The procedures described allow lengthy loading histories to be stored in compact form.

Khosrovaneh, A. K.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prevalence of Americans reporting a family history of cancer indicative of increased cancer risk: Estimates from the 2015 National Health Interview Survey

The collection and evaluation of family health history in a clinical setting presents an opportunity to discuss cancer risk, tailor cancer screening recommendations, and identify people with an increased risk of carrying a pathogenic variant who may benefit from referral to genetic counseling and testing. National recommendations for breast and colorectal cancer screening indicate that men and women who have a first-degree relative affected with these types of cancers may benefit from talking to a healthcare provider about starting screening at an earlier age and other options for cancer prevention. The prevalence of reporting a first-degree relative who had cancer was assessed among adult respondents of the 2015 National Health Interview Survey who had never had cancer themselves (n = 27,999). We found 35.6% of adults reported having at least one first-degree relative with cancer at any site. Significant differences in reporting a family history of cancer were observed by sex, age, race/ethnicity, educational attainment, and census region. Nearly 5% of women under age 50 and 2.5% of adults under age 50 had at least one first-degree relative with breast cancer or colorectal cancer, respectively. We estimated that 5.8% of women had a family history of breast or ovarian cancer that may indicate increased genetic risk. A third of U.S. adults who have never had cancer report a family history of cancer in a first-degree relative. Furthermore, this finding underscores the importance of using family history to inform discussions about cancer risk and screening options between healthcare providers and their patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Life history strategies among soil bacteria—dichotomy for few, continuum for many

Abstract Study of life history strategies may help predict the performance of microorganisms in nature by organizing the complexity of microbial communities into groups of organisms with similar strategies. Here, we tested the extent that one common application of life history theory, the copiotroph-oligotroph framework, could predict the relative population growth rate of bacterial taxa in soils from four different ecosystems. We measured the change of in situ relative growth rate to added glucose and ammonium using both 18O–H2O and 13C quantitative stable isotope probing to test whether bacterial taxa sorted into copiotrophic and oligotrophic groups. We saw considerable overlap in nutrient responses across most bacteria regardless of phyla, with many taxa growing slowly and few taxa that grew quickly. To define plausible life history boundaries based on in situ relative growth rates, we applied Gaussian mixture models to organisms’ joint 18O–13C signatures and found that across experimental replicates, few taxa could consistently be assigned as copiotrophs, despite their potential for fast growth. When life history classifications were assigned based on average relative growth rate at varying taxonomic levels, finer resolutions (e.g., genus level) were significantly more effective in capturing changes in nutrient response than broad taxonomic resolution (e.g., phylum level). Our results demonstrate the difficulty in generalizing bacterial life history strategies to broad lineages, and even to single organisms across a range of soils and experimental conditions. We conclude that there is a continued need for the direct measurement of microbial communities in soil to advance ecologically realistic frameworks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nondestructive geochemical characterization of fossil hominin taphonomy and burial history

To date, only three Homo habilis specimens have been discovered that have associated craniodental and postcranial elements, providing a limited fossil record of the ontogeny and morphology of early members of the genus Homo. Recently, a nearly complete dentition, likely attributable to H. habilis, was discovered and excavated from early Pleistocene-age fluvial-lacustrine sediments of the upper Burgi Member of the Koobi Fora Formation at site F25787 in Area 13, near Ileret, Kenya. On the surface less than 15 m away, at site F25966, postcranial elements were found, which, if from the same individual as the nearby dentition, would represent the fourth associated craniodental and postcranial assemblage of this species. We developed a geochemical taphonomic history of these ca. 2 Ma hominin fossils using nondestructive X-ray based microanalytical tools (synchrotron and benchtop X-ray fluorescence chemical imaging and micro- and nano-computed tomography volumetric reconstruction), bulk analyses of sediments and paleosols at the excavation sites, and sedimentologic and stratigraphic observations. We integrate the chemical and physical taphonomic histories to test whether teeth (excavated in situ) and postcranial bones (eroded onto the outcrop surface) derive from a single individual. Minor differences in taphonomic history are attributable to the different biomineral properties of the dental and osseous components and to differences in physical damage during early post-mortem scavenging, dispersal, and burial in adjacent depositional settings. Microscale geochemical mapping enabled the temporal ordination of chemical and physical events in the specimens’ chemical taphonomic histories. Specifically, authigenic Fe- and K-bearing clays and Y, U, and Sr uptake occurred in post-burial fractures in bones and were also incorporated pervasively throughout dentin in teeth. Barite mineralization occurred along the latest fractures in both materials, and as a coating on tooth roots. The stratigraphic, taphonomic, and geochemical evidence supports the interpretation that the hominin fossils represent a single individual. Finally, successful application of these nondestructive sample characterization methods demonstrates capabilities for thorough interrogation of the taphonomic histories of other potential hominin fossil associations, enabling more robust and accurate palaeontologic constraints using those relationships.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Life history strategies of soil bacterial communities across global terrestrial biomes

The life history strategies of soil microbes determine their metabolic potential and their response to environmental changes. Yet these strategies remain poorly understood. Here we use shotgun metagenomes from terrestrial biomes to characterize overarching covariations of the genomic traits that capture dominant life history strategies in bacterial communities. The emerging patterns show a triangle of life history strategies shaped by two trait dimensions, supporting previous theoretical and isolate-based studies. The first dimension ranges from streamlined genomes with simple metabolisms to larger genomes and expanded metabolic capacities. As metabolic capacities expand, bacterial communities increasingly differentiate along a second dimension that reflects a trade-off between increasing capacities for environmental responsiveness or for nutrient recycling. Random forest analyses show that soil pH, C:N ratio and precipitation patterns together drive the dominant life history strategy of soil bacterial communities and their biogeographic distribution. Finally, our findings provide a trait-based framework to compare life history strategies of soil bacteria.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine-Learning-Based Multiscale Methods for 3D Modelling of Granular Materials by Incorporating History-Dependent State Variables

Over the past decades, the prevalence of machine learning (ML) methods has made the development of ML-based constitutive models for granular materials undoubtedly a popular subject. Numerous studies have been made to feature the loading path or history-dependent stress-strain response of granular media using neural networks. In this work, a novel finite element method (FEM)–ML multiscale approach was developed by incorporating internal variables to improve the simulation accuracy of 3D history-dependent granular materials for the first time. To this end, a surrogate constitutive model based on the single-step-based multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network was used to replace representative volume element (RVE) simulations conducted by the discrete element method (DEM) in the multiscale FEM–DEM approach. Although the prediction principle of the MLP aligns with the FEM algorithm, artificially added internal variables are required to differentiate the loading history. To address this issue, history variables associated with the Frobenius norm are proposed to be fed into the MLP coupled with the strain tensor to extract the history-dependent behaviour of granular assemblies. The developed FEM–ML approach was demonstrated in 3D conventional triaxial compression (CTC) simulations. Compared to the multiscale FEM–DEM approach, the proposed FEM–ML method exhibits a significantly improved computational efficiency.

granular materials↗
DOE OSTI2023

The History of MCNP and about 20 Related Programs

The history of the MCNP code is a long and complicated one that touches a huge number of other software packages over the decades. This document will attempt to place the direct lineage of the MCNP code into a single document and track the people who worked on and around the software. This report is necessarily incomplete. The author only has access to the LANL archives, which have gaps in key areas. Speculation will be used to fill gaps where necessary. It is hoped that future revisions will have more detail than this report, especially as others come forward with their knowledge. The history will be broken into a few segments. Sec. 1 will go through the low-energy history from MCS to MCNP version 4. In Sec. 2, the history of high-energy physics from Oak Ridge’s NTC to MCNP version 6 will be discussed. Sec. 3 will go through some important notes to complete this history. Finally, Sec. 4 contains a chart of the lineage of the code.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear history, politics, and futures from (A)toms-to(Z)oom: Design and deployment of a remote-learning special-topics course for nuclear engineering education

To address the lack of familiarity with nuclear history common among nuclear engineers and physicists, we outline the design and deployment of a special-topics course entitled “NE290: Nuclear History, Politics, and Futures” throughout which we contextualize the importance of the field at its inception, in current affairs, and in future endeavors. We argue that understanding this history is paramount in internalizing a sense of respect for the scientific, technical, and sociological ramifications of an unlocked atom—as well as its perils. We begin by outlining the gaps in secondary educational offerings for nuclear history and their importance in consideration with nontechnical engineering guidelines. We then outline a number of ABET specifications as pedagogical goals for NE290 from which we derive a list of target student learning objectives. Next, we outline the NE290 syllabus in terms of assignments and an overview of course content in the form of a class timeline. We provide an extensive description of the materials and teaching methodologies for the four units of NE290: Twentieth-Century Physics, Physics in WWII, the Early Cold War, and the Late Cold War and Modern Era. We detail the sequence of lectures across the course and historical timelines leading up to a showcasing of NE290 final projects which mirror in creativity the novelty of course offering. Because NE290 was first offered during Spring 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic, additional measures in the form of new tools were used to augment the mandate of remote learning. In particular, we leveraged the newfound ubiquity of videoconferencing technology to recruit geographically diverse guest lecturers and used the MIRO tool for virtual whiteboarding. Lastly, we provide an accounting of course outcomes drawn from student feedback which—in tandem with the complete distribution of course material—facilitates the integration of nuclear history into the curriculum for the wider nuclear engineering and physics communities.

Berliner, Aaron J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Hypersonics Before the Shuttle: A Concise History of the X-15 Research Airplane

It is a beginning. Over forty-five years have elapsed since the X-15 was conceived; 40 since it first flew. And 31 since the program ended. Although it is usually heralded as the most productive flight research program ever undertaken, no serious history has been assembled to capture its design, development, operations, and lessons. This monograph is the first step towards that history. Not that a great deal not previously been written about the X-15, because it has. But most of it has been limited to specific aspects of the program; pilot's stories, experiments. lessons-learned, etc. But with the exception of Robert S. Houston's history published by the Wright Air Development Center in 1958, and later included in the Air Force History Office's Hypersonic Revolution, no one has attempted to tell the entire story. And the WADC history is taken entirely from the Air Force perspective, with small mention of the other contributors.

Jenkins, Dennis R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Complex Exposure History of a Very Large L/LL5 Chondrite Shower: Queen Alexandra Range 90201

Compared to iron meteorites, large stony meteorites (less than 100 kg) are relatively rare. Most large stony meteoroids fragment during atmospheric entry, producing large meteorite showers. Interestingly, many of these large chondrites, such as Bur Gheluai, Gold Basin, Jilin and Tsarev appear to have a complex exposure history with a first-stage exposure on the parent body. The question is whether complex exposure histories are simply more readily detected in large objects or large objects are more likely to experience a complex exposure. Investigation of these two hypotheses is the motivation for this work in which we report on the exposure history of QUE 90201, a large L/LL5 chondrite shower found near Queen Alexandra Range, Antarctica. Previous cosmogenic nuclide studies have led to the consensus that most of the approx. 2000 L5 and LL5 chondrites from the QUE area are derived from a single object with a pre-atmospheric radius of 1-2 m. The terrestrial age of the QUE 90201 shower was determined at 125 20 kyr. Here, we present a more complete set of cosmogenic radionuclide results in the metal and stone fractions of eleven L/LL5 chondrites from the QUE stranding area, as well as noble gases in seven of these samples. The main goal of this work is to unravel the cosmic-ray exposure history of the QUE 90201 meteoroid. In addition, we will discuss the pre-atmospheric size and exposure history of QUE 93013 (H5) and 93081 (H4) with similar shielding conditions as the QUE 90201 shower and a terrestrial age of 145 +/- 25 kyr.

Welten, K. C.↗
NASA NTRS2004

My Work in the NASA Glenn History Office and Records Management Office

This is my fourth summer working with my mentor, Kevin P. Coleman, who is the Center History Coordinator, Center Records Manager, and Center Forms Manager. I am working in the GRC History Office with some overlap in the Records Management Office. I have three major projects this summer. First, I am assisting in the documentation of historic facilities. Second, I am involved in a project to organize files and create an archives at Plum Brook Station. Third, I have helped the records management office with its inventory of stored records at Plum Brook. Also, I received an award this summer for research work I had done for NASA in the past. First, my primary project is to help assemble documentation for historic facilities at Glenn. This is somewhat of an extension of my project from last summer. Last summer, I worked to compile a complete list of all of NASA s historic sites and landmarks (as designated by the National Park Service, as well as several private organizations) throughout the country. Then, I briefly researched the significance of historic designation under federal law. Finally, I put my findings into a report which was submitted to NASA Headquarters. Upon review by the NASA History Office and several center-level history officials, it was decided that NASA should work to update its documentation of its historic sites and landmarks since some of the documentation was outdated or unavailable. Until recently, many project managers and facility managers working at historic facilities were not even aware that their surroundings had been designated as historic under federal law (most specifically, the National Historic Preservation Act of 1966 and its amendments). Therefore, they were unaware of the legal obligations for historic preservation. This summer, my project is to research some of Glenn s historic sites and landmarks in more detail. The goal is to put together a template for documenting historic NASA facilities. The hope is that this template of requirements for historic documentation of facilities (which may include records, drawings, photos, film, interviews, and a Web site) can be used agency-wide to assist center history offices in documenting historic sites and landmarks. To this end, I am working with Bob Arrighi, an archivist from InDyne, Inc., and Anne Burke, a NASA co-op, to gather and assess the historic value of records from several facilities at Glenn and Plum Brook Station. We will also work to determine the costs of each part of the template.

Mate, Robert C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Lunar Regolith as a Recorder of Cosmic History

The Moon can be considered a giant tape recorder containing the history of the solar system and Universe. The lunar regolith (soil) has recorded the early history of the Moon, Earth, the solar system and Universe. A major goal of future lunar exploration should be to find and play back existing fragments of that tape . By reading the lunar tape, we can uncover a record of planetary bombardment, as well as solar and stellar variability. The Moon can tell us much about our place in the Universe. The lunar regolith has likely recorded the original meteoritic bombardment of Earth and Moon, a violent cataclysm that may have peaked around 4 Gyr, and the less intense bombardment occurring since that time. This impact history is preserved on the Moon as regolith layers, ejecta layers, impact melt rocks, and ancient impact breccias. The impact history of the Earth and Moon possibly had profound effects on the origin and development of life. Decrease in meteor bombardment allowed life to develop on Earth. Life may have developed first on another body, such as Mars, then arrived via meteorite on Earth. The solar system may have experienced bursts of severe radiation from the Sun, other stars, or from unknown sources. The lunar regolith has recorded this radiation history in the form of implanted solar wind, solar flare materials and radiation damage. Lunar soil can be found sandwiched between layers of basalt or pyroclastic deposits. This filling constitutes a buried time capsule that is likely to contain well-preserved ancient regolith. Study of such samples will show us how the solar system has evolved and changed over time. The lunar tape recorder can provide detailed information on specific portions of solar and stellar variability. Data from the Moon also offers clues as to whether so-called fundamental constants have changed over time.

Cooper, Bonnie↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Time-History Statistics of Soot Formation in A Model Gas Turbine Combustor

Soot formation is a complex dynamic and intermittent process determined by properties of the fuel, combustor design, and combustor operation. Although the major steps in soot formation (i.e., formation of precursors, inception, growth and evolution) are similar for a variety of carbonaceous fuels, applications, and operating conditions, it remains unclear when the temporal transition between these steps occurs. An engineering prediction tool coupled with computational fluid physics (CFD), therefore needs to accurately model all these complex steps. To develop such a model, we propose the time-history concept for understanding the time dependency of soot formation as a function of local properties (i.e., temperature, velocity, local fuel air ratio, etc.). We continue our previous work with modeling the DLR aero-combustor [1] with our updated in-house CFD code, Open National Combustion Code (OpenNCC), that now includes a Multiple Time-Scale Flamelet Progress Variable approach and a the semi-empirical two-equation soot model. We injected massless tracer particles upstream of the injector region of the combustor to collect time-history statistics of the solution variables. The correlations between the collected statistics with respect to the experimental soot volume fraction data showed that time-history effect of certain flow variables, including turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), and multiple species is indeed important for soot formation. We then conducted a time-history based correlation analysis to determine the key species and the concentration ranges critical for soot formation (C6H5-based nucleation, acetylene-based surface growth, and oxidation with OH and O2). Based on the time-history correlation coefficient (THCC) analysis, we propose possible modifications to improve the current two-equation model.

LES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Illuminating otoliths: New insights for life history of Balistes triggerfishes

Our understanding of fish life-history strategies is informed by key biological processes, such as growth, survival/mortality, recruitment and sexual maturation, used to characterize fish stocks (populations). Characterizing the life-history traits of fish populations requires the application of accurate age estimation for managed species. Grey triggerfish Balistes capriscus and queen triggerfish Balistes vetula are important reef-associated species for commercial and recreational fisheries in the Atlantic Ocean. Both species exhibit a unique reproductive strategy for large-bodied fisheries-targeted reef fishes in that they are nesting benthic spawners and invest substantial energy in defence and care of their benthic nests and fertilized eggs. Until recently, our understanding of the life-history strategies of triggerfishes assumed the main method used to obtain age estimates, increments counted from thin sections of the first dorsal spine, provided an accurate characterization of population age-based parameters. However, results from bomb radiocarbon validation studies on the two Balistes species demonstrated that spines do not provide accurate ages, but sagittal otoliths do. The main goal of the current study was to provide an updated understanding for triggerfish life-history strategies by using otolith-based age estimates to characterize population age structure and growth for grey triggerfish and queen triggerfish from waters of the south-eastern U.S. Atlantic. The current study is the first to report on sex-specific age and growth information for grey triggerfish using the Δ 14 C-validated otolith-based age estimation method and the results indicate that the previous characterization of Balistes species as exhibiting moderately rapid growth and as relatively short-lived, based on spine-derived age estimates, are flawed. Otolith-based ages indicated that grey triggerfish and queen triggerfish are moderately slow-growing and long-lived species, attaining maximum ages of 21 and 40 years, respectively. Management efforts for triggerfishes should evaluate these new insights and incorporate the results of otolith-based age estimation into future population monitoring efforts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparing Life Histories of the Shortest-Lived Turtle Known (Chicken Turtles, Deirochelys reticularia ) with Long-Lived Blanding's Turtles ( Emydoidea blandingii )

Evolutionary theories predict major differences in life-history trait values of long- and short-lived organisms. Such comparisons have not been possible for chelonians because no shortlived turtle was known until research revealed that chicken turtles (Deirochelys reticularia; DR) have a maximum longevity of 21 yrs. Life-history trait values of DR females are 1) age at maturity of females = 5–6 yrs; 2) clutches per season = 1.6; 3) annual fecundity = 6–8 female eggs per female; 4) average juvenile survivorship from age 1 to maturity = 0.60; and 5) low average annual adult survivorship = 0.66. We compared DR with the very long-lived Blanding’s turtles (Emydoidea blandingii; EB) in Michigan. Over 14 yrs with no mortality (the minimum age at maturity of EB), the maximum potential fecundity produced by a single female embryo and her mature female offspring was 5 female eggs for EB and 1040 eggs for DR. Comparisons of life table output for approximately stable populations of DR and EB resulted in cohort generation times of 7 and 37 yrs, respectively. The life-history prediction that short-lived organisms should produce smaller offspring was not supported. Average wet mass of eggs is 10 g (8.4–11.3 g) for DR and 12 g (10–14 g) for EB; and average wet mass of hatchlings is 7.3 g (6–9 g) for DR and 9.3 g (6–13 g) for EB. Both differences are smaller than expected based on the difference in longevity. Here, short-lived female DR have an unusual tactic of investing in high fecundity and making substantial body sizespecific investment in large eggs, which may reflect why juvenile survivorship had greater influence on population change rates than did adult survivorship. In contrast, adult survivorship had the greatest influence on population change rates of EB. Comparison of cohorts of 1000 female DR and EB hatchlings highlights the differences in life histories of short- and long-lived turtles: all DR would be dead by the time the last female EB had reached maturity at 21 yrs of age.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Substrate Utilization and Competitive Interactions Among Soil Bacteria Vary With Life-History Strategies

Microorganisms have evolved various life-history strategies to survive fluctuating resource conditions in soils. However, it remains elusive how the life-history strategies of microorganisms influence their processing of organic carbon, which may affect microbial interactions and carbon cycling in soils. Here, we characterized the genomic traits, exometabolite profiles, and interactions of soil bacteria representing copiotrophic and oligotrophic strategists. Isolates were selected based on differences in ribosomal RNA operon ( rrn ) copy number, as a proxy for life-history strategies, with pairs of “high” and “low” rrn copy number isolates represented within the Micrococcales, Corynebacteriales, and Bacillales. We found that high rrn isolates consumed a greater diversity and amount of substrates than low rrn isolates in a defined growth medium containing common soil metabolites. We estimated overlap in substrate utilization profiles to predict the potential for resource competition and found that high rrn isolates tended to have a greater potential for competitive interactions. The predicted interactions positively correlated with the measured interactions that were dominated by negative interactions as determined through sequential growth experiments. This suggests that resource competition was a major force governing interactions among isolates, while cross-feeding of metabolic secretion likely contributed to the relatively rare positive interactions observed. By connecting bacterial life-history strategies, genomic features, and metabolism, our study advances the understanding of the links between bacterial community composition and the transformation of carbon in soils.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Brief History of Agricultural Systems Modeling

Agricultural systems science generates knowledge that allows researchers to consider complex problems or take informed agricultural decisions. The rich history of this science exemplifies the diversity of systems and scales over which they operate and have been studied. Modeling, an essential tool in agricultural systems science, has been accomplished by scientists from a wide range of disciplines, who have contributed concepts and tools over more than six decades. As agricultural scientists now consider the next generation models, data, and knowledge products needed to meet the increasingly complex systems problems faced by society, it is important to take stock of this history and its lessons to ensure that we avoid re-invention and strive to consider all dimensions of associated challenges. To this end, we summarize here the history of agricultural systems modeling and identify lessons learned that can help guide the design and development of next generation of agricultural system tools and methods. A number of past events combined with overall technological progress in other fields have strongly contributed to the evolution of agricultural system modeling, including development of process-based bio-physical models of crops and livestock, statistical models based on historical observations, and economic optimization and simulation models at household and regional to global scales. Characteristics of agricultural systems models have varied widely depending on the systems involved, their scales, and the wide range of purposes that motivated their development and use by researchers in different disciplines. Recent trends in broader collaboration across institutions, across disciplines, and between the public and private sectors suggest that the stage is set for the major advances in agricultural systems science that are needed for the next generation of models, databases, knowledge products and decision support systems. The lessons from history should be considered to help avoid roadblocks and pitfalls as the community develops this next generation of agricultural systems models.

agricultural systems↗
NASA NTRS2023

Investigating Hydroclimatic Impacts of the 168–158 BCE Volcanic Quartet and Their Relevance to the Nile River Basin and Egyptian History

The Ptolemaic era (305–30 BCE) is an important period of Ancient Egyptian history known for its material and scientific advances, but also intermittent political and social unrest in the form of (sometimes widespread) revolts against the Ptolemaic elites. While the role of environmental pressures has long been overlooked in this period of Egyptian history, ice-core-based volcanic histories have identified the period as experiencing multiple notable eruptions, and a repeated temporal association between explosive volcanism and revolt has recently been noted. Here we analyze the global and regional (Nile River basin) hydroclimatic response to a unique historical sequence of four large and closely timed volcanic eruptions (first a tropical one, followed by three extratropical northern hemispheric events) between 168 and 158 BCE, a particularly troubled period in Ptolemaic history for which we now provide a more detailed hydroclimatic context. The NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2.1 Earth system model simulates a strong radiative response with a radiative forcing (top of atmosphere) of −7.5 W m−2 (following the first eruption) and −2.5 W m−2 (after each of the three remaining eruptions) at a global scale. Associated with this, we observe a global surface cooling of the order of 1.5 ∘C following the first (tropical) eruption, with the following three extratropical eruptions extending the cooling period for more than 15 years. Consequently, this series of eruptions is observed to constrain the northward migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) during the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon season, and major monsoon zones (African, South Asian, and East Asian) were seen to experience a suppression of rainfall of >1 mm d−1 during the monsoon (JJAS) season averaged for 2 years after each eruption. A substantial suppression of the Indian and North African summer monsoon (over the Nile River headwater region) was seen to strongly affect the modeled river flow in the catchment and discharge at river mouth. River mass flow over the basin was observed to decrease by 29 % and 38 % relative to an unperturbed (non-volcanic) annual mean flow in the first and second year, respectively, after the first (i.e., tropical) eruption. A moderate decrease ranging between 5 % and 18 % was observed after the third and fourth (extratropical) eruptions. These results indicate, in sum, that the first eruption likely produced a strong hydroclimate response, with the following extratropical eruptions prolonging this. These results also support the recently hypothesized association between ice-core-based signals of explosive volcanism and hydroclimatic variability during the Ptolemaic era, including the suppression of the agriculturally critical Nile summer flooding.

hydroclimate impacts↗