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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

𝑁-dimensional maximum-entropy tomography via particle sampling

We propose a modified maximum-entropy (MENT) algorithm for six-dimensional phase space tomography. The algorithm uses particle sampling and low-dimensional density estimation to approximate large sets of high-dimensional integrals in the original MENT formulation. We implement this approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques and demonstrate convergence of six-dimensional MENT on both synthetic and measured data.

Hoover, Austin [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
DOE OSTI2025

A copula-based rank histogram ensemble filter

Serial ensemble filters implement triangular probability transport maps to reduce high-dimensional inference problems to sequences of state-by-state univariate inference problems. The univariate inference problems are solved by sampling posterior probability densities obtained by combining constructed prior densities with observational likelihoods according to Bayes' rule. Many serial filters in the literature focus on representing the marginal posterior densities of each state. However, rigorously capturing the conditional dependencies between the different univariate inferences is crucial to correctly sampling multidimensional posteriors. This work proposes a new serial ensemble filter, called the copula rank histogram filter (CoRHF), that seeks to capture the conditional dependency structure between variables via empirical copula estimates; these estimates are used to rigorously implement the triangular (state-by-state univariate) Bayesian inference. The success of the CoRHF is demonstrated on two-dimensional examples and the Lorenz'63 problem. A practical extension to the high-dimensional setting is developed by localizing the empirical copula estimation, and is demonstrated on the Lorenz'96 problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Consequential improvement acquisition function for efficient multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization

Abstract Surrogate-based Bayesian optimization has been widely applied in design optimization to increase sampling efficiency. However, the cost for each evaluation of the objective function can still be very high when physical experiments or large-scale simulations are involved. Multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization is the new approach to further improve the sampling efficiency by reducing the number of expensive samples at the highest fidelity level and supplementing them with less expensive ones at low-fidelity levels. In this paper, a new consequential improvement (CI) acquisition function is proposed to allow for the simultaneous selection of the solution and the fidelity level in problems with a known hierarchy of fidelity levels. The new CI acquisition function incorporates the consequential effectiveness of objective improvement with the considerations of cost, accuracy, and validity differences between high- and low-fidelity samples in engineering practice. The new method of multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization based on the CI is demonstrated with several analytical and simulation-based design examples. In the simulation-based design optimization example, the results show that the CI acquisition function has a decisive advantage in the sampling efficiency over the other methods of multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization with simultaneous selection. The results indicate that the proposed method is particularly advantageous in solving high-dimensional problems and when large cost ratios between high- and low-fidelity evaluations exist and high-fidelity validation is mandatory. Furthermore, the method robustly avoids the prevalent issue of over sampling at low-fidelity levels.

Aydogdu, Ibrahim [Georgia Institute of Technology,↗
DOE OSTI2025

Conformal Hierarchical Simulation-Based Inference with Local Validity

Trustworthy and interpretable uncertainty quantification is a long-standing challenge in artificial intelligence. Simulation-based inference (SBI) comprises a broad swath of approaches for estimating latent parameters with uncertainties. Although flexible neural density estimators in SBI can be remark- ably expressive capturing highly structured, high-dimensional posteriors their credible regions can be badly mis-calibrated and are often only accompanied by heuristic coverage checks. We present the first SBI framework that delivers finite-sample local valid coverage guarantees that hold in the neighborhood of each observation. Our framework can couple any off-the-shelf hierarchical SBI engine with a confor- mal Bayesian post-processing step that operates on the posterior predictive density. A kernel-weighted conformity score adapts the conformal quantile to the local geometry of the data, yielding prediction sets that are simultaneously (i) marginally calibrated, (ii) locally valid, and (iii) hierarchical, handling global and observation-specific parameters in a single pass. Through experiments on synthetic data and benchmarks from neuroscience and physics, we show that our approach attains 1 − α coverage, where prior SBI methods under- or over-cover. Our approach also maintains a competitive, credible set size with minimal computational overhead. Finally, our approach can be used to make predictions on real data and give valid credible regions modulo weight-initialization-based model mis-specification.

Trivedi, Shubhendu [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-dimensional maximum-entropy phase space tomography

Reconstructing 4D or 6D phase space distributions from 1D or 2D measurements is a challenging inverse problem encountered in particle accelerators. Entropy maximization is an established method to incorporate prior information in the reconstruction, but it is typically infeasible in high-dimensional spaces. In this paper, I review two recent approaches to high-dimensional entropy maximization. The first approach utilizes differentiable simulations and a class of generative models known as normalizing flows, whereas the second approach employs the method of Lagrange multipliers and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. My aim is to provide a short explanation of each method using a common notation. I conclude by mentioning several unsolved problems in phase space tomography.

Hoover, Austin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000153136962)↗
DOE OSTI2026

GP Cosmology Surrogate v1.0

GP Cosmology Surrogate is a Python library for building and training a generalized multi-output Gaussian process (GP) framework of @takhtaganov2021cosmic. In this approach, the surrogate is constructed sequentially, guided by a Bayesian optimization acquisition function that targets reduction of emulation error in the regions most consistent with the observational data. This adaptive design concentrates computational resources where they have the greatest impact on inference accuracy. The library supports efficient training for separable GP kernels, which allows the use of Kronecker algebra to handle high-dimensional input spaces and large numbers of correlated outputs. This makes it well suited for applications such as modeling cosmological power spectra, large-scale physical simulations, and multi-output hyperparameter tuning. By combining scalable multi-output GP modeling with data-driven adaptive sampling, GPsurrogate enables parameter inference and optimization with substantially fewer simulations than conventional space-filling designs.

Lukic, Zarija [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data Summarization and Inference at Scale

This is the final report for the DOE ASCR grant SC-0022260, Data Summarization and Inference at Scale, PI: Alex Pothen, Purdue University. The goal of the project was to solve data-intensive and compute-intensive problems in the physical sciences, engineering, information science, data science, etc. by designing and implementing new algorithms that could work with a subset of the data. The four subgoals were: (a) The solution of problems where the data is too large to be stored in the memory of a computer. In this streaming model of computation, the data arrives as a stream of elements to the computer, each element is processed as it arrives, and a decision is made to discard the data or to store it; only a small subset of the data proportional to the size of the output solution is stored, and when all the data has been streamed, a solution to the problem is computed from the stored subset. (b) The use of machine learning methods to compute solutions to data-intensive problems. The use of GPUs is critical to obtain high performance on machine learning tasks, but their memory sizes are smaller relative to that of CPUs. For large-scale problems, the data is sampled many times, and small samples are used with repetition, for robustness, to compute solutions to inference tasks. This sampling reduces the memory required to solve the problem, but attention is needed to avoid slow convergence to the solutions, and reduced accuracy of inference. We propose submodular optimization, Large Language Models, and physics-informed neural networks to enable GPU computations here. (c) Modeling and visualization of high-dimensional data using interpretable features. Clinical proteomic data sets from immunology for the detection of cancer and other diseases are temporal and high-dimensional, and algorithms for visualizing these data sets using clinically interpretable features are lacking. We propose methods that compute distances based on the optimal transportation problem and graph edit distances to address this problem. We also propose the use of optimal transport-based distances, spatial statistics, and network structure to classify image data sets, We apply these algorithms to electron micrographs of the peripheral nervous system in the digestive tract. (d) The design of data-intensive algorithms on emerging architectures, specifically, noisy, intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices. Quantum computers offer the possibility of exploring large solution spaces due to the principle of superposition, but current quantum computers are limited by few qubits, short coherence times due to noise, poor interconections among the qubits, etc. We propose the use of the divide and conquer paradigm to solve large-scale problems, wherein collections of small subproblems are solved on the quantum devices, and the solutions to the subproblems are integrated into a solution for the original problem on a classical computer.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Space‐Time Causal Discovery in Earth System Science: A Local Stencil Learning Approach

Causal discovery tools enable scientists to infer meaningful relationships from observational data, spurring advances in fields as diverse as biology, economics, and climate science. Despite these successes, the application of causal discovery to space-time systems remains immensely challenging due to the high-dimensional nature of the data. For example, in climate sciences, modern observational temperature records over the past few decades regularly measure thousands of locations around the globe. To address these challenges, we introduce Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning (CaStLe), a novel meta-algorithm for discovering causal structures in complex space-time systems. CaStLe leverages regularities in local space-time dependencies to learn governing global dynamics. This local perspective eliminates spurious confounding and drastically reduces sample complexity, making space-time causal discovery practical and effective. For causal discovery, CaStLe flexibly accepts any appropriately adapted time series causal discovery algorithm to recover local causal structures. These advances enable causal discovery of geophysical phenomena that were previously unapproachable, including non-periodic, transient phenomena such as volcanic eruption plumes. Regularities in local space-time dependencies are transformed into informative spatial replicates, which actually improve CaStLe's performance when applied to ever-larger spatial grids. We successfully apply CaStLe to discover the atmospheric dynamics governing the climate response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption. We provide validation experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of CaStLe over existing causal-discovery frameworks on a range of geophysics-inspired benchmarks while identifying the method's limitations and domains where its assumptions may not hold.

Nichol, J. Jake [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque,↗
DOE OSTI2026

Active Learning‐Driven Inkless Additive Nanomanufacturing for Printed Electronics

Inkless additive nanomanufacturing for printed electronics promises broad material and substrate versatility, yet the high-dimensional print parameter space makes tuning print parameters time-intensive. We present a Bayesian optimization study that constructs a digital twin from printed-silver data to benchmark surrogate models, acquisition functions, and batch sizes head-to-head to achieve user-specified target resistance. Tested surrogate models included Gaussian process, random forest, and Bayesian neural network surrogates with expected improvement and confidence bound acquisition functions. In total, we evaluate 48 unique model configurations alongside a random sampling baseline for comparison. For printed silver, the Bayesian neural network with a batch size of one achieved the lowest average cumulative regret, approximately four times more efficient on average than random sampling. To balance performance and substrate space, a random forest model with expected improvement and a batch size of four was chosen as the model for validation testing. Applying this chosen configuration to copper with an additional print parameter, the model achieved a resistance within 0.15 Ω of a 1 Ω target in fewer than 30 printed lines across five validation sets. Altogether, the workflow yields a tuned and validated model that efficiently guides experiments toward the target while simultaneously learning the parameter space.

Bevel, Colton [Auburn University, AL (United State↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multidimensional Distributional Neural Network Output Demonstrated in Super‐Resolution of Surface Wind Speed

Accurate quantification of uncertainty in neural network predictions remains a central challenge for scientific applications involving high-dimensional, correlated data. While existing methods capture either aleatoric or epistemic uncertainty, few offer closed-form, multidimensional distributions that preserve spatial correlation while remaining computationally tractable. In this work, we present a framework for training neural networks with a multidimensional Gaussian loss, generating a closed-form predictive distribution over outputs informed by non-identically distributed training data. Our approach captures aleatoric uncertainty by iteratively estimating the means and covariance matrices, and is demonstrated on a super-resolution example out-of-training-sample. We leverage a Fourier representation of the covariance matrix to stabilize network training and preserve spatial correlation. We introduce a novel regularization strategy—referred to as information sharing—that interpolates between image-specific and global covariance estimates, enabling convergence of the super-resolution downscaling network trained on image-specific distributional loss functions. This framework allows for efficient sampling, explicit correlation modeling, and extensions to more complex distribution families all without disrupting prediction performance. We demonstrate the method on a surface wind speed downscaling task and discuss its broader applicability to uncertainty-aware prediction in scientific models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

In situ multi-tier auto-ignition detection applied to dual-fuel combustion simulations

Here we use an anomaly detection methodology that is centered on analyzing fourth-order joint moments (co-kurtosis), particularly focusing on its application in auto-ignition of combustion problems with large numbers of species. Unsupervised anomaly detection is challenging to generalize across problem types and domains. A recent technique, centered on analyzing information in the fourth-order joint moment co-kurtosis, has shown promise, especially for high-dimensional scientific data. In this work we present developments to the co-kurtosis based anomaly detection method needed to make it effective and scalable for large-scale distributed scientific data, such as those generated by massively parallel simulations. An in situ co-kurtosis algorithm is employed as the anomaly detection method for identifying ignition kernels in simulations of turbulent combustion. Here, we extend an existing methodology which identifies regions of the domain where anomalies are present, and add another tier of anomaly detection where the individual samples contributing to the anomaly are identified. We apply this algorithm on-the-fly to a variety of turbulent reacting flow problems and compare it to the widely used (but significantly more expensive) chemical explosive mode analysis (CEMA). We demonstrate the ability of the method to detect and identify the onset of low and high temperature ignition which can be used for computational steering, as chemical and combustion anomalies occur intermittently at spatio-temporal locations unknown a priori. Finally, we apply our lightweight in situ algorithm to an exascale high-fidelity simulation with a total of 2.4 Trillion degrees of freedom, performed using an adaptive mesh refinement solver. Furthermore, through a scalability analysis, we show that the relative computational cost of this in-situ anomaly detection algorithm compared to an iteration of the reacting flow solver is negligible.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

SO(3)-invariant PCA with application to molecular data

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a fundamental technique for dimensionality reduction and denoising; however, its application to three-dimensional data with arbitrary orientations -- common in structural biology -- presents significant challenges. A naive approach requires augmenting the dataset with many rotated copies of each sample, incurring prohibitive computational costs. In this paper, we extend PCA to 3D volumetric datasets with unknown orientations by developing an efficient and principled framework for SO(3)-invariant PCA that implicitly accounts for all rotations without explicit data augmentation. By exploiting underlying algebraic structure, we demonstrate that the computation involves only the square root of the total number of covariance entries, resulting in a substantial reduction in complexity. We validate the method on real-world molecular datasets, demonstrating its effectiveness and opening up new possibilities for large-scale, high-dimensional reconstruction problems.

Fraiman, Michael [Tel Aviv Univ., Tel Aviv (Israel↗
DOE OSTI2025

Persistent Sampling: Enhancing the Efficiency of Sequential Monte Carlo

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an extension of SMC that systematically retains and reuses particles from all prior iterations to construct a growing, weighted ensemble. By leveraging multiple importance sampling and resampling from a mixture of historical distributions, PS mitigates the need for excessively large particle counts, directly addressing key limitations of SMC such as particle impoverishment and mode collapse. Crucially, PS achieves this without additional likelihood evaluations-weights for persistent particles are computed using cached likelihood values. This framework not only yields more accurate posterior approximations but also produces marginal likelihood estimates with significantly lower variance, enhancing reliability in model comparison. Furthermore, the persistent ensemble enables efficient adaptation of transition kernels by leveraging a larger, decorrelated particle pool. Experiments on high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures, hierarchical models, and non-convex targets demonstrate that PS consistently outperforms standard SMC and related variants, including recycled and waste-free SMC, achieving substantial reductions in mean squared error for posterior expectations and evidence estimates, all at reduced computational cost. PS thus establishes itself as a robust, scalable, and efficient alternative for complex Bayesian inference tasks.

Karamanis, Minas↗
DOE OSTI2026

Taylor approximation variance reduction for approximation errors in PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems

In numerous applications, surrogate models are used as a replacement for accurate parameter-to-observable mappings when solving large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The surrogate model may be a computationally cheaper alternative to the accurate parameter-to-observable mappings and/or may ignore additional unknowns or sources of uncertainty. The Bayesian approximation error (BAE) approach provides a means to account for the induced uncertainties and approximation errors, i.e. the errors between the accurate parameter-to-observable mapping and the surrogate. The statistics of these errors are, however, in general unknown a priori, and are thus calculated using Monte Carlo sampling. Although the sampling is typically carried out offline, i.e. before considering the data, the process can still represent a computational bottleneck. In this work, we develop a scalable computational approach for reducing the costs associated with the sampling stage of the BAE approach. Specifically, we consider the Taylor expansion of the accurate and surrogate forward models with respect to the uncertain parameter fields either as a control variate for variance reduction or as a means to directly and efficiently approximate the mean and covariance of the approximation errors. We propose efficient methods for evaluating the expressions for the mean and covariance of the Taylor approximations based on linear(-ized) PDE solves. Furthermore, the proposed approach is independent of the dimension of the uncertain parameter, depending instead on the intrinsic dimension of the data, ensuring scalability to high-dimensional problems. The potential benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated for two high-dimensional inverse problems governed by PDE examples, namely for the estimation of a distributed Robin boundary coefficient in a linear diffusion problem, and for a coefficient estimation problem governed by a nonlinear diffusion problem.

Bayesian approximation error↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neural refinement of sample weights

Monte Carlo simulations are an essential tool in particle physics data analysis. Events are typically generated alongside weights that redistribute the cross section of the simulated process across the phase space. These weights can be negative, and several post hoc methods have been developed to eliminate or mitigate the negative values. All of these methods share the common strategy of approximating the average weight as a function of phase space. We introduce an alternative approach, which, instead of reweighting to the average, refines the initial weights with a scaling transformation, utilizing a phase space-dependent factor. Since this new refinement method does not need to model the full weight distribution, it can be more accurate. High-dimensional and unbinned phase space is processed using neural networks for the refinement method. In addition to the refinement method, we introduce a new resampling protocol, which can be used in conjunction with any weight transformation to not only preserve the average weight but also the statistical uncertainties of the initial distribution. Using both realistic and synthetic examples, we show that the new neural refinement method is able to match or exceed the accuracy of similar weight transformations and that the new resampling protocol is simpler in implementation than previous methods while exhibiting equivalent statistical properties.

Artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2026

Transplatformer: translating toxicogenomic profiles between generations of platforms

Background Transcriptomic profiling technologies have advanced the analysis of biological and toxicological responses. However, substantial differences in probe design, dynamic range, gene coverage, and preprocessing pipelines across platforms introduce artifacts that limit cross-study integration and hinder the reuse of historical datasets. We aim to develop computational methods for accurate cross-platform translation to maximize the value of legacy resources. Results We present TransPlatformer a deep learning framework for translating gene expression profiles across heterogeneous toxicogenomics platforms. TransPlatformer employs a novel attention-based architecture to map high-dimensional fold-change vectors from legacy microarray technologies to current platforms. Models are trained and evaluated using DrugMatrix, spanning three technological generations. We investigate mixed-tissue, single-tissue, and cross-tissue training paradigms and benchmark performance against multilayer perceptron and matrix-completion baselines. In mixed-tissue training, TransPlatformer achieves a greater than 50% reduction in mean absolute error (0.043 vs. 0.09) and nearly doubles Pearson correlation ( ≈ 0.71 vs. 0.37) relative to baseline methods. Importantly, TransPlatformer preserves rare but biologically meaningful over- and under-expressed signals, with mean absolute error below 0.22. Single-tissue models yield further improvements for well-represented organs, such as a 10% reduction in liver mean absolute error, while underscoring the need for data augmentation strategies in low-sample tissues.ra Conclusions TransPlatformer provides an effective and scalable computational solution for cross-platform transcriptomic translation. By enabling biologically faithful harmonization of gene expression data, the proposed approach facilitates the reuse of legacy toxicogenomics datasets, enhances downstream biomarker discovery, and supports more reproducible predictive modeling in toxicology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gradient-informed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for multicomponent CALPHAD model optimization and uncertainty quantification

CALPHAD model parameter optimization is inherently challenging due to non-smooth objective functions, high-dimensional parameter spaces, and the need for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Traditional weighted nonlinear least squares approaches are computationally efficient but local, whereas black-box global optimizers and ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide broader exploration at substantial computational cost. The objective of this work is to combine the global exploration capability of gradient-informed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo – specifically the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) – with local deterministic refinement using BFGS to efficiently optimize multicomponent CALPHAD models with minimal manual intervention. Analytic gradients are computed via the Jansson derivative framework. The methodology is demonstrated on the Cr—Fe binary system and extended to the Cr—Fe—Ni ternary system with 32 degrees of freedom. For Cr—Fe, NUTS achieves comparable or superior optimality relative to ensemble MCMC while requiring over an order-of-magnitude fewer likelihood evaluations. Parameter uncertainties are quantified through NUTS sampling and propagated to thermodynamic observables using local expansion, demonstrating a novel modular approach that combines binary and ternary parameter subsets without requiring global relaxation. These results establish gradient-informed exploration as a scalable strategy for multicomponent CALPHAD optimization and provide a practical route towards efficient higher-order database development with quantified uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projection-based multifidelity linear regression for data-scarce applications

Surrogate modeling for systems with high-dimensional quantities of interest remains challenging, particularly when training data are costly to acquire. This work develops multifidelity methods for multiple-input multiple-output linear regression targeting data-limited applications with high-dimensional outputs. Multifidelity methods integrate many inexpensive low-fidelity model evaluations with limited, costly high-fidelity evaluations. We introduce two projection-based multifidelity linear regression approaches with linear and nonlinear features that leverage principal component basis vectors for dimensionality reduction and combine multifidelity data through: (i) a direct data augmentation using low-fidelity data, and (ii) a data augmentation incorporating explicit linear corrections between low-fidelity and high-fidelity data. The data augmentation approaches combine high-fidelity and low-fidelity data into a unified training set and train the linear regression model through weighted least squares with fidelity-specific weights. We introduce a proximity-based weighting scheme with automatic weight selection strategy through cross-validation. Here, the proposed multifidelity linear regression methods are demonstrated on approximating the surface pressure field of a hypersonic vehicle in flight and the temperature field on an aircraft disc braking system. In an ultra low-data regime of no more than twelve high-fidelity samples, multifidelity linear regression achieves approximately 2% – 12% improvement in median accuracy and a higher R 2 score relative to single-fidelity methods at comparable computational cost.

data augmentation↗