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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Megafires in a Warming World: What Wildfire Risk Factors Led to California’s Largest Recorded Wildfire

Massive wildfires and extreme fire behavior are becoming more frequent across the westernUnited States, creating a need to better understand how megafire behavior will evolve in our warmingworld. Here, the fire spread model Prometheus is used to simulate the initial explosive growth ofthe 2020 August Complex, which occurred in northern California (CA) mixed conifer forests. Hightemperatures, low relative humidity, and daytime southerly winds were all highly correlated withextreme rates of modeled spread. Fine fuels reached very dry levels, which accelerated simulationgrowth and heightened fire heat release (HR). Model sensitivity tests indicate that fire growth andHR are most sensitive to aridity and fuel moisture content. Despite the impressive early observedgrowth of the fire, shifting the simulation ignition to a very dry September 2020 heatwave predicted a>50% increase in growth and HR, as well as increased nighttime fire activity. Detailed model analysesof how extreme fire behavior develops can help fire personnel prepare for problematic ignitions.

Kevin Varga↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatio-Temporal Surrogates for Interaction of a Jet with High Explosives: Part II - Clustering Extremely High-Dimensional Grid-Based Data

Building an accurate surrogate model for the spatio-temporal outputs of a computer simulation is a challenging task. A simple approach to improve the accuracy of the surrogate is to cluster the outputs based on similarity and build a separate surrogate model for each cluster. This clustering is relatively straightforward when the output at each time step is of moderate size. However, when the spatial domain is represented by a large number of grid points, numbering in the millions, the clustering of the data becomes more challenging. In this report, we consider output data from simulations of a jet interacting with high explosives. These data are available on spatial domains of different sizes, at grid points that vary in their spatial coordinates, and in a format that distributes the output across multiple files at each time step of the simulation. We first describe how we bring these data into a consistent format prior to clustering. Borrowing the idea of random projections from data mining, we reduce the dimension of our data by a factor of thousand, making it possible to use the iterative k-means method for clustering. We show how we can use the randomness of both the random projections, and the choice of initial centroids in k-means clustering, to determine the number of clusters in our data set. Our approach makes clustering of extremely high dimensional data tractable, generating meaningful cluster assignments for our problem, despite the approximation introduced in the random projections.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating High-Frequency Seismograms in Realistic Earth Models to Better Understand Source Discrimination Based on Differential Magnitudes ( M L− M c)

Discriminating low-yield underground nuclear explosions from small earthquakes is a key task in monitoring nuclear test ban treaties. P/S amplitude ratios have been an effective discriminant for moderate-sized events recorded at regional distances, but it is unclear if they are as effective in discriminating small seismic events recorded at local distances (<150 km). The difference between local magnitude (M L ) and coda duration magnitude (M c ) has been proposed as a new discriminant that may complement P/S amplitude ratios at local distances. Here, in this work, we calculate high-frequency (up to ∼4 Hz) synthetic seismograms at epicentral distances of 0–30 km in realistic models of the Salt Lake basin (Utah, United States) to better understand how variations in source type and depth affect M L −M c values. The Earth models incorporate simplified 1D and deterministic 3D structures, small-wavelength stochastic velocity perturbations, and surface topography. Coda waves are enhanced for the more complicated models compared to the base 1D model, but still underpredict observed durations by about a factor of two, which results in overprediction of amplitude to duration ratios (i.e., M L −M c values) for a near-surface explosion and a 7 km deep earthquake. For both source types, the predicted M L and M c values decrease as source depth increases, and M L −M c shows only minor variation with depth; however, M L −M c is on average ∼0.5 units smaller for explosions than earthquakes. This finding may imply that M L −M c has sensitivity to source type, in addition to being a depth discriminant, but more modeling is needed given the limitations of the current study. Future modeling should incorporate higher-frequency (≳5 Hz) simulations over a larger distance range (0–150 km), where M L and M c are commonly measured, while honoring low shear velocities (<300 m/s) near the surface and sampling a wider range of earthquake and explosion source mechanisms.

Hutchings, Sean J. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City,↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simultaneous inference of equation of state parameters and unknown data errors with uncertainty quantification via hierarchical Bayesian posterior maximization

Equations of state (EOSs) are a key component in running hydrodynamic simulations as they relate the thermodynamic states for the material. The Davis reactants EOS is commonly used for modeling high explosives (HEs), and the EOS model parameters are calibrated using material specific data. The calibrations are often performed with uncertainty quantification via Bayesian inference to account for uncertainty in the data and generate ensembles of likely parameters. However, there are relatively few HE data sets to use for calibration and many are historical and lack error information. In this work, we simultaneously calibrate the Davis reactants EOS model parameters and unknown data error terms for the high explosive PBX 9501. To quantify the uncertainty in the models and the data, we use a Bayesian framework for the calibration and compute the hierarchical Bayesian posterior distribution with both a posteriori maximization approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. In general, we find that, given our assumptions, the two approaches result in similar calibrated parameters, posterior covariance matrices, and insights about the parameters but that the posterior maximization requires far less computational resources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A novel ignition model for low velocity impact of heterogeneous explosives based on interacting hot spots

While numerous studies have focused on the ignition of explosives occurring in high velocity impact and the associated shock-to-detonation transition, there has been growing interest in developing computational models focused on low-velocity impact regimes. A predictive low-velocity impact ignition model will be important for analyzing high explosive safety and potential accident scenarios. This work introduces a novel ignition model based on the concept of thermally interacting hot spots to simulate low velocity impacted heterogeneous explosives where observed ignition times are on the order of milliseconds. The model asserts that relevant hot spots are micron-sized, the typical separation between neighboring hot spots is on the order of a hundred microns, and that neighbors interact thermally through heat conduction across the interstitial region between them. To achieve tractable numerical solutions, hot spots are assumed to form a periodic array as opposed to the highly irregular positioning in an actual explosive. This idealization allows a single two hotspot system to characterize the ignition process. Consequently, the model is referred to as the two hot spot Frank-Kamenetskii ignition model. In the present study, hot spots are modeled as constant heat sources terms, but this can be extended to include grain-scale phenomena like frictional heating of micron-sized growing cracks that are confined under high pressure. Because the micron-sized features are below the scale that can be efficiently resolved at a systems level, an efficient subscale scheme based on the Method of Weighted Residuals (MWR) is used to efficiently solve the equations. In conclusion, we carry out numerical examples and analytic predictions illustrating the accuracy and the functioning of the model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2019

First Detection of Plasmoids from Breakout Reconnection on the Sun

Transient collimated plasma ejections (jets) occur frequently throughout the solar corona, in active regions, quiet Sun, and coronal holes. Although magnetic reconnection is generally agreed to be the mechanism of energy release in jets, the factors that dictate the location and rate of reconnection remain unclear. Our previous studies demonstrated that the magnetic breakout model explains the triggering and evolution of most jets over a wide range of scales, through detailed comparisons between our numerical simulations and high-resolution observations. An alternative explanation, the resistive-kink model, invokes breakout reconnection without forming and explosively expelling a flux rope. Here we report direct observations of breakout reconnection and plasmoid formation during two jets in the fan-spine topology of an embedded bipole. For the first time, we observed the formation and evolution of multiple small plasmoids with bidirectional flows associated with fast reconnection in 3D breakout current sheets (BCSs) in the solar corona. The first narrow jet was launched by reconnection at the BCS originating at the deformed 3D null, without significant flare reconnection or a filament eruption. In contrast, the second jet and release of cool filament plasma were triggered by explosive breakout reconnection when the leading edge of the rising flux rope formed by flare reconnection beneath the filament encountered the preexisting BCS. These observations solidly support both reconnection-driven jet models: the resistive kink for the first jet, and the breakout model for the second explosive jet with a filament eruption.

Kumar, Pankaj↗
DOE OSTI2023

Acoustic Research under the Source Physics Experiment

The Source Physics Experiment series is a long-term research and development (R&D) effort under the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration focused on improving the physical understanding of how chemical explosions generate seismoacoustic signals. Beginning in 2011, a series of subsurface chemical explosions in two different and highly contrasting geologies were conducted at the Nevada National Security Site in Nevada, USA with the objective of improving simulation and modeling approaches to explosion identification, yield estimation and other monitoring applications. The two executed phases of the series provide new explosion signature source data from a wide range of geophysical diagnostic equipment; recorded data from the test series is now openly available to the broader seismoacoustic community. This manuscript details the executed test series, deployed seismoacoustic networks, and summarizes major scientific achievements utilizing recorded signatures from the explosive tests.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
NASA NTRS2003

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Mars Impact Cratering

This document discusses the following topics: High Resolution Digital Elevation Models of Pristine Explosion Craters; Crater Degradation in the Martian Highlands: Morphometric Analysis of the Sinus Sabaeus Region and Simulation Modeling Suggest Fluvial Processes; Analysis of Impact Crater Preservation on Mars Using THEMIS Data; Atmospheric Entry Studies and the Smallest Impact Craters on Mars; Updating the Crater Count Chronology System for Mars; Control of Impact Crater-related Fracture Systems on the Subsurface Hydrology and Ground Collapse; Quantitative Analyses of Terrestrial Crater Deposits: Constraining Formation and Sediment Transport Processes on Mars; and Predicted Effects of Surface Processes on Martian Impact Crater Depth/Diameter Relationships

Stephen J Mackwell↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-driven Explosions of Stripped High-mass Stars: Synthetic Light Curves and Spectra of Stripped-envelope Supernovae with Broad Light Curves

Stripped-envelope supernovae (SESNe) represent a significant fraction of core-collapse supernovae, arising from massive stars that have shed their hydrogen and, in some cases, helium envelopes. The origins and explosion mechanisms of SESNe remain a topic of active investigation. In this work, we employ radiative-transfer simulations to model the light curves and spectra of a set of explosions of single, solar-metallicity, massive Wolf–Rayet stars with ejecta masses ranging from 4 to 11 M ⊙ , which were computed from a turbulence-aided and neutrino-driven explosion mechanism. We analyze these synthetic observables to explore the impact of varying ejecta mass and helium content on observable features. We find that the light curve shape of these progenitors with high ejecta masses is consistent with observed SESNe with broad light curves but not the peak luminosities. The commonly used analytic formula based on rising bolometric light curves overestimates the ejecta mass of these high-initial-mass progenitor explosions by a factor of up to 2.6. In contrast, the calibrated method by Haynie et al., which relies on late-time decay tails, reduces uncertainties to an average of 20% within the calibrated ejecta mass range. Spectroscopically, the He I 1.083 μm line remains prominent even in models with as little as 0.02 M ⊙ of helium. However, the strength of the optical He I lines is not directly proportional to the helium mass but instead depends on a complex interplay of factors such as the 56 Ni distribution, composition, and radiation field. Thus, producing realistic helium features requires detailed radiative transfer simulations for each new hydrodynamic model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicted Melt Curve and Liquid Shear Viscosity of RDX up to 30 GPa

Recent grain-scale simulations of HMX and TATB have shown that predictions for hot spot formation in high explosives are particularly sensitive to accurate determinations of the pressure-dependent melt curve and the shear viscosity of the liquid phase. These physics terms are poorly constrained beyond ambient pressure for the explosive RDX. Here we adopt an all-atom modeling approach using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to predict the melt curve of RDX near to detonation conditions (30 GPa) and determine the shear viscosity of the liquid as a function of temperature and pressure above the melt curve. Phase-coexistence simulations were used to determine the melt curve, which is predicted to vary by almost 1100 K as the pressure increases from 0 GPa to 30 GPa. Equilibrium MD simulations and the Green-Kubo formalism were used to obtain the pressure-temperature-dependent shear viscosity. The shear viscosity of RDX is predicted to be of similar magnitude to the viscosity of TATB at low GPa-range pressures, and to be roughly an order of magnitude lower than the viscosity of HMX. The temperature dependence of the shear viscosity is Arrhenius at a given pressure, and the exponential pre-factor and activation term exhibit a strong, yet complicated, pressure dependence. An empirical pressure-temperature dependent function for RDX shear viscosity is developed that simultaneously captures a wide range of MD predictions while taking an analytic form that extrapolates smoothly beyond the fitted regime. The relative strength of the pressure and temperature dependencies of these two physics terms is found to be of similar magnitude for RDX, HMX, and TATB, which motivates incorporating these results in future RDX grain-scale modeling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatio-Temporal Surrogates for Interaction of a Jet with High Explosives: Part I - Analysis with a Small Sample Size

Computer simulations, especially of complex phenomena, can be expensive, requiring high-performance computing resources. Often, to understand a phenomenon, multiple simulations are run, each with a different set of simulation input parameters. These data are then used to create an interpolant, or surrogate, relating the simulation outputs to the corresponding inputs. When the inputs and outputs are scalars, a simple machine learning model can suffice. However, when the simulation outputs are vector valued, available at locations in two or three spatial dimensions, often with a temporal component, creating a surrogate is more challenging. In this report, we use a two-dimensional problem of a jet interacting with high explosives to understand how we can build high-quality surrogates. The characteristics of our data set are unique - the vector-valued outputs from each simulation are available at over two million spatial locations; each simulation is run for a relatively small number of time steps; the size of the computational domain varies with each simulation; and resource constraints limit the number of simulations we can run. We show how we analyze these extremely large data-sets, set the parameters for the algorithms used in the analysis, and use simple ways to improve the accuracy of the spatio-temporal surrogates without substantially increasing the number of simulations required.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Astrophysical Explosions and Nucleosynthesis (Final Technical Report)

The goal of this project was to further our theoretical understanding of the extreme physics and heavy element nucleosynthesis occurring in stellar explosions, in particular supernovae and neutron star mergers. To study these systems, we further developed and applied numerical simulations (radiation hydrodynamical models and nuclear reaction networks) run on high performance computers. The numerical calculations and companion theoretical analysis helped to better define the sites of astrophysical nucleosynthesis, and make predictions of the associated observables (nucleosynthetic yields and electromagnetic signals) that can be used to anticipate and interpret experimental data. This project enhances the scientific value of the nuclear data obtained from current and future experimental facilities (e.g., rare isotope beams) by improving our understanding of the astrophysical context and specific physical conditions under which we expect such reactions to take place in Nature.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Three-dimensional core-collapse supernova models with phenomenological treatment of neutrino flavor conversions

Abstract We perform three-dimensional supernova simulations with a phenomenological treatment of neutrino flavor conversions. We show that the explosion energy can increase to as high as $\sim 10^{51}$ erg depending on the critical density for the onset of flavor conversions, due to a significant enhancement of the mean energy of electron antineutrinos. Our results confirm previous studies showing such energetic explosions, but for the first time in three-dimensional configurations. In addition, we predict neutrino and gravitational wave (GW) signals from a nearby supernova explosion aided by flavor conversions. We find that the neutrino event number decreases because of the reduced flux of heavy-lepton neutrinos. In order to detect GWs, next-generation GW telescopes such as Cosmic Explorer and the Einstein Telescope are needed even if the supernova event is located at the Galactic Center. These findings show that the neutrino flavor conversions can significantly change supernova dynamics and highlight the importance of further studies on the quantum kinetic equations to determine the conditions of the conversions and their asymptotic states.

Mori, Kanji↗
DOE OSTI2025

2020 Budget Request for the DOE Computational Science Graduate Fellowship (CSGF) Grant

The Department of Energy Computational Science Graduate Fellowship (DOE CSGF) is essential for addressing the increasingly complex national workforce demands stemming from the growth of computational science and engineering challenges. Computational science and engineering (CSE) takes a multidisciplinary approach that utilizes scientific computing to tackle practical problems and provide technical tools across the spectrum of scientific discovery. The DOE CSGF specifically highlights high-performance computing (HPC) as a critical enabling technology in CSE, driving advancements in science and engineering that are vital to both the DOE and the broader economy. Over the past half-century, HPC has been an essential tool for DOE’s success. During this period, important missions, such as nuclear stockpile stewardship, have turned to HPC as an essential technology. Entire science disciplines have been transformed through the augmentation of scientific observation via HPC. At government laboratories, academic institutions, and in industry, DOE CSGF alumni are helping push traditional HPC boundaries while contributing to discoveries in high-energy physics, quantum information systems, fusion-reactor design, machine learning, additive manufacturing, nano materials for next-generation batteries and transistors, and advanced nuclear reactor modeling. In addition, HPC is used to address national health needs that will eventually point to cures both by helping cancer researchers manage and analyze huge troves of data, by simulating biological mechanisms, and by accelerating drug development. A 2023 report from the ASCAC Subcommittee on American Competitiveness and Innovation to the ASCR office, “Can the United States Maintain Its Leadership in High-Performance Computing?” says of the Program, “The CSGF program provides a barometer for disciplines that will be of interest to future DOE computing. Computational biology, machine learning, and quantum computing are among the subjects that began to swell in the ranks of CSGF applicants before the labs were hiring as high a percentage of employees in these categories.” The explosion of scientific and technological data has heightened the demand for advanced high-performance computing (HPC) to transform these data into meaningful scientific insights. As access to vast amounts of data increases, the fields of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence are experiencing a resurgence, enhancing the established practices of computational modeling and simulation. In its September 2020 subcommittee report on "AI/ML, Data Intensive Science, and High-Performance Computing," the DOE Advanced Scientific Computing Advisory Committee (ASCAC) specifically called for a fellowship program to train computational and data scientists to address exascale and data-intensive computing challenges. This integration of empirical and theoretical modeling will increasingly guide federal policymakers in making decisions that impact American society and future generations. It demands a workforce of highly skilled and intellectually agile computational scientists capable of navigating the rapid advancements in scientific computing within the DOE National Laboratory research environment. The DOE CSGF program has consistently addressed this critical need.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2005

Simulation of Blast Waves with Headwind

The blast wave resulting from an explosion was simulated to provide guidance for models estimating risks for human spacecraft flight. Simulations included effects of headwind on blast propagation, Blasts were modelled as an initial value problem with a uniform high energy sphere expanding into an ambient field. Both still air and cases with headwind were calculated.

Olsen, Michael E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Core collapse supernova gravitational wave emission for progenitors of 9.6, 15, and 25 M ⊙

Here, we present gravitational wave emission predictions based on three core collapse supernova simulations corresponding to three different progenitor masses. The masses span a large range, between 9.6 and 25M ⊙ , are all initially nonrotating, and are of two metallicities: zero and solar. We compute both the temporal evolution of the gravitational wave strains for both the plus and the cross polarizations, as well as their spectral decomposition and characteristic strains. The temporal evolution of our zero metallicity 9.6M ⊙ progenitor model is distinct from the temporal evolution of our solar metallicity 15M ⊙ progenitor model and our zero metallicity 25M ⊙ progenitor model. In the former case, the high-frequency gravitational wave emission is largely confined to a brief time period ~75 ms after bounce, whereas in the latter two cases high-frequency emission does not commence until ~125 ms after bounce or later. The excitation mechanisms of the high-frequency emission in all three cases correspond to proto-neutron star convection and accretion onto the proto-neutron star from the convective gain layer above it, with the former playing the dominant role for most of the evolution. The low-frequency emission in all three models exhibits very similar behavior. At frequencies below ~250 Hz, gravitational waves are emitted by neutrino-driven convection and the standing accretion shock instability (SASI). This emission extends throughout the simulations when a gain region is present. In all three models, explosion is observed at ~125, ~500, and ~250 ms after bounce in the 9.6, 15, and 25M ⊙ progenitor models, respectively. At these times, the low-frequency gravitational wave emission is joined by very low-frequency emission, below ~10 Hz. These very low-frequency episodes are the result of explosion and begin at the above designated explosion times in each of our models. Our characteristic strains tell us that, in principle, all three gravitational wave signals would be detectable by current-generation detectors for a supernova at a distance of 10 kpc. However, our 9.6M ⊙ progenitor model is a significantly weaker source of gravitational waves, with strain amplitudes approximately 5–10 times less than in our other two models. The characteristic strain for this model tells us that such a supernova would be detectable only within a much more narrow frequency range around the maximum sensitivity of today’s detectors. Finally, in our 9.6M ⊙ progenitor model, we see very high-frequency gravitational radiation, extending up to ~2000 Hz. This feature results from the interaction of shock- and deleptonization-induced convection with perturbations introduced in the progenitor by nuclear burning during core collapse. While unique to the 9.6M ⊙ progenitor model analyzed here, this very high-frequency emission may, in fact, be a generic feature of the predictions for the gravitational wave emission from all core collapse supernova models when simulations are performed with three-dimensional progenitors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Verification and validation of detonation-shock-dynamics relations for explosives described by general equation of state and chemical reaction models

Detonation shock dynamics is a powerful method to model the behaviour of High Explosives (HE). However in order to use this method, the underlying relationship between the local radius of curvature and the detonation speed must be known. Previous work has developed methods to calculate this effect using simple, single-step Arrhenius and polytropic gas, models for the chemical reaction and the equation of state, respectively. In recent years, more complex models for both reaction rates and equations of state have been developed which show better agreement with experimental data than these simple models, especially when considering condensed phase explosives.. This work presents the governing equations for solving these problems in a way that is generalised to use arbitrary equations of state as well as reaction models which may have more than a single step and multiple product species. This implementation is verified against exact solutions, demonstrating that the equations were implemented properly. The verified algorithm is then validated against experimental data and high fidelity simulations, showing that it is able to make accurate predictions in a regime where the underlying assumptions of the governing equations are valid. Importantly, this approach has many applications: from creating equivalent detonation shock dynamics models for existing reactive burn calibrations for HE; to developing new functional forms and calibrations of reactive burn models for condensed phase high explosives.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗