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At least 37 records · Page 2

Impact of truck electrification on air pollution disparities in the United States

Electrifying heavy-duty trucks reduces on-road diesel emissions but shifts the burden of supplying energy to power-generation facilities. The combined effect of Inflation Reduction Act investments in grid decarbonization and truck electrification will alter the magnitude and distribution of air pollution burdens across the United States. These investments are intended to facilitate a just energy transition, with 40% of the benefits flowing to disadvantaged communities per the Justice40 Initiative. Here we evaluate the combined effects of Inflation Reduction Act grid decarbonization and truck electrification investments on a national scale to determine whether the air pollution benefits would meet this 40% goal for both disadvantaged communities and the most exposed racial–ethnic groups. We find that truck electrification and decarbonization reduce air-pollution-related premature mortality in disadvantaged communities. However, the relative disparity between disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged communities increases, suggesting that a disproportionate share of benefits accrue to non-disadvantaged communities. Whereas absolute disparity in grid emissions decreases over time for all racial–ethnic groups, relative disparity remains largely unchanged, with Black populations being the most exposed. Electrifying drayage corridors would result in comparatively large health benefits for disadvantaged communities, suggesting that increasing targeted electrification investments in short-haul routes near urban areas (for example, ports) could be promising.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A multi-scale time-series dataset with benchmark for machine learning in decarbonized energy grids

The electric grid is a key enabling infrastructure for the ambitious transition towards carbon neutrality as we grapple with climate change. With deepening penetration of renewable resources, the reliable operation of the electric grid becomes increasingly challenging. In this paper, we present PSML, a first-of-its-kind open-access multi-scale time-series dataset, to aid in the development of data-driven machine learning (ML)-based approaches towards reliable operation of future electric grids. The dataset is synthesized from a joint transmission and distribution electric grid to capture the increasingly important interactions and uncertainties of the grid dynamics, containing power, voltage and current measurements over multiple spatio-temporal scales. Using PSML, we provide state-of-the-art ML benchmarks on three challenging use cases of critical importance to achieve: (i) early detection, accurate classification and localization of dynamic disturbances; (ii) robust hierarchical forecasting of load and renewable energy; and (iii) realistic synthetic generation of physical-law-constrained measurements. We envision that this dataset will provide use-inspired ML research in safety-critical systems, while simultaneously enabling ML researchers to contribute towards decarbonization of energy sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Impact of Clean Grid Transition on Wastewater Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions

This study examines the spatial and temporal impacts of the U.S. clean energy grid transition on related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the wastewater treatment industry. By analyzing data from 17,156 water resource recovery facilities (WRRFs) and state-specific grid decarbonization scenarios, the results project a 60% reduction in Scope 2 emissions by 2050, driven by the national shift to renewable energy. However, regional disparities are prominent, with northeastern and western states achieving the most significant reductions, while the Ohio Valley and Rockies are likely to experience higher emissions due to the reliance on fossil fuels. This study offers the first assessment of clean grid impacts on the WRRFs and highlights the need for targeted, region-specific strategies across different emission scopes. This research provides insights for policymakers and stakeholders in the wastewater sector, emphasizing the critical role of grid decarbonization in achieving GHG reduction goals.

Li, Xiatong↗

The Role of Concentrating Solar-Thermal Technologies in a Decarbonized U.S. Grid

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Solar Futures Study explores the roles solar energy technologies could play in the future U.S. energy markets under different scenarios. This report discusses the role of concentrating solar-thermal (CST) technologies in those future scenarios with an emphasis on concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP), which refers to converting thermal energy to electricity. The report begins with an overview of the CSP resource and market status. Next we discuss the results from the grid-scale capacity planning modeling under future scenarios considered in the Solar Futures Study, focusing on the results for CSP and presenting several sensitivity model results not discussed in the main report. We then discuss likely CST research and industry directions over the next decade. Finally we discuss three potential future markets for CST beyond electricity generation -- industrial process heat, solar fuels production, and electric thermal energy storage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Environmental and Circular Economy Implications of Solar Energy in a Decarbonized U.S. Grid

This report addresses environmental and circular economy (CE) considerations related to solar technologies via novel analysis of the three Solar Futures core scenarios as well as synthesis of published research. We organize these issues into the three basic life cycle phases of a solar technology: manufacturing, operation (including site selection and construction), and EOL. Related environmental justice issues are also explored. Finally, we recommend research and development (R&D) activities that could help clarify challenges and identify solutions. Because PV deployment is projected to be much larger than CSP deployment, we offer a more detailed analysis of PV-related issues.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Circular economy priorities for photovoltaics in the energy transition

Among the many ambitious decarbonization goals globally, the US intends grid decarbonization by 2035, requiring 1 TW of installed photovoltaics (PV), up from ~110 GW in 2021. This unprecedented global scale-up will stress existing PV supply chains with increased material and energy demands. By 2050, 1.75 TW of PV in the US cumulatively demands 97 million metric tonnes of virgin material and creates 8 million metric tonnes of life cycle waste. This analysis leverages the PV in Circular Economy tool (PV ICE) to evaluate two circular economy approaches, lifetime extension and closed-loop recycling, on their ability to reduce virgin material demands and life cycle wastes while meeting capacity goals. Modules with 50-year lifetimes can reduce virgin material demand by 3% through reduced deployment. Modules with 15-year lifetimes require an additional 1.2 TW of replacement modules to maintain capacity, increasing virgin material demand and waste unless >90% of module mass is closed-loop recycled. Currently, no PV technology is more than 90% closed-loop recycled. Glass, the majority of mass in all PV technologies and an energy intensive component with a problematic supply chain, should be targeted for a circular redesign. Our work contributes data-backed insights prioritizing circular PV strategies for a sustainable energy transition.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Potential Impact of Flexible CHP on the Future Electric Grid in California

This presentation summarizes results from the “Modeling the Impact of Flexible CHP on the Future Electric Grid In California” report (doi:10.2172/1649545). The analysis estimated the value of flexible CHP to the gird in a somewhat decarbonized grid in California. The analysis found that advanced, flexible CHP can more than double capacity with a 6 year payback period, save site owners up to $760 million, reduce CA-ISOs operating cost by over $700 million, and eliminate hours of grid stress in CA-ISO.

CHP↗

Greenhouse gas emissions embodied in the U.S. solar photovoltaic supply chain

Abstract Solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity is considered to be an important source of electricity generation in the quest for net-zero carbon emissions. However, the growth of solar electricity is creating both increased material demands and increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from silicon and PV manufacturing (also referred to as embodied GHG emissions of solar electricity). Here we analyze the silicon and solar PV supply chain for the United States (U.S.) market and find that the embodied GHG emissions of solar PV panel materials (such as silicon), manufacture, logistics, and installation in the U.S. given the current supply chain are 36 g CO 2 e kWh −1 of solar electricity generated. Eighty-five percent of the embodied GHG emissions are from PV panel production processes in China and other Asia–Pacific countries. Moving the silicon and PV manufacturing to the U.S. would reduce the embodied GHG emissions of solar electricity by 16% from its current level, primarily because of the lower GHG emission intensity of the U.S. electrical grid and the lower GHG emissions for aluminum electrolysis in North America. Future scenario analysis shows that by 2030, with the U.S. PV domestic supply chain and its decarbonized grid electricity and aluminum production, as well as improving PV conversion efficiency, the embodied GHG emissions of solar electricity in the U.S. will be reduced to 21 g CO 2 e kWh −1 .

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Net-zero CO 2 by 2050 scenarios for the United States in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 37 study on deep decarbonization and high electrification analyzed a set of scenarios that achieve economy-wide net-zero carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in North America by mid-century, exploring the implications of different technology evolutions, policies, and behavioral assumptions affecting energy supply and demand. Here, for this paper, 16 modeling teams reported resulting emissions projections, energy system evolution, and economic activity. This paper provides an overview of the study, documents the scenario design, provides a roadmap for complementary forthcoming papers from this study, and offers an initial summary and comparison of results for net-zero CO 2 by 2050 scenarios in the United States. We compare various outcomes across models and scenarios, such as emissions, energy use, fuel mix evolution, and technology adoption. Despite disparate model structure and sources for input assumptions, there is broad agreement in energy system trends across models towards deep decarbonization of the electricity sector coupled with increased end-use electrification of buildings, transportation, and to a lesser extent industry. All models deploy negative emissions technologies (e.g., direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) in addition to land sinks to achieve net-zero CO 2 emissions. Important differences emerged in the results, showing divergent pathways among end-use sectors with deep electrification and grid decarbonization as necessary but not sufficient conditions to achieve net zero. These differences will be explored in the papers complementing this study to inform efforts to reach net-zero emissions and future research needs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Decarbonization Considerations: Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings [Slides]

The Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) is helping federal agencies understand how to meet decarbonization goals with grid interactive efficient buildings (GEB). This training will provide attendees with an introduction to GEB, how to work with utilities, and opportunities for federal sites.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Decarbonization of the Electric Power Sector and Implications for Low-Cost Hydrogen Production from Water Electrolysis

Increasing development of wind and solar generation in the power sector can create economic opportunities for the deployment of water electrolyzers that produce hydrogen. Temporal variation in the marginal cost of energy in future decarbonized grids can make it favorable for electrolyzers to dispatchably ramp hydrogen production up and down in response to low- and high-cost times. Using this strategy, low-cost hydrogen production is enabled by electrolyzers that are low-capital cost and tolerant to frequent on/off cycling. Ramping down hydrogen production to a designated turndown ratio can avoid performance degradation caused by on/off cycling by not shutting the electrolyzer completely off. This comes with a slight cost penalty which can be minimized if the turndown ratio is low (i.e., the system ramps down hydrogen production to close to zero). These results suggest that electrolyzers integrated into future power systems are likely to benefit from the ability to ramp operation up and down quickly and operate in a standby mode. This analysis forms a basis for comparative tradeoffs between electrolyzer capital cost, operating strategy, and system durability and demonstrates the importance of considering all three factors in technoeconomic analysis.

capital cost↗

The environmental impact of hydropower: a systematic review of the ecological effects of sub-daily flow variability on riverine fish

Hydropower can help facilitate power grid decarbonization because it can respond to short-term changes in power demand and is comparatively more reliable than intermittent wind and solar. However, flexible hydropower operations can create rapid and abnormal fluctuations in downstream flow conditions, which can negatively impact aquatic ecosystems. Accordingly, we conducted a systematic review on the ecological effects of hydropower-driven sub-daily flow variability (SDFV) on riverine fishes. We reviewed and synthesized 109 articles relevant to fish-SDFV relationships from seven sources, most of which focused on Salmonids in North America and northern and western Europe and were published in the last 15 years. We found strong agreement in the literature that SDFV increases fish stranding risk, destabilizes habitat, and decreases production and diversity. We found moderate agreement that SDFV interrupts fish reproduction, increases or has no impact on condition, and prompts or discourages movement depending on local channel conditions. We found little to no agreement for relationships between SDFV and mortality, physiology, and behavior. The effects of SDFV on riverine fish ecology are intertwined in the complex suite of biotic and abiotic characteristics that structure aquatic ecosystems and are highly site-, species-, and life stage-specific. Assessments of the impact of SDFV on fish ecology should first characterize local habitat and channel quality and fish community composition to identify specific, measurable ecological outcomes to sustain or enhance, and then design mitigation strategies tailored to those ecological objectives.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

A novel approach for large-scale wind energy potential assessment

Increasing wind energy generation is central to grid decarbonization, yet methods to estimate wind energy potential are not standardized, leading to inconsistencies and even skewed results. This study aims to improve the fidelity of wind energy potential estimates through an approach that integrates geospatial analysis and machine learning (i.e., Gaussian process regression). We demonstrate this approach to assess the spatial distribution of wind energy capacity potential in the Contiguous United States (CONUS). We find that the capacity-based power density ranges from 1.70 MW/km2 (25th percentile) to 3.88 MW/km2 (75th percentile) for existing wind farms in the CONUS. The value is lower in agricultural areas (2.73 ± 0.02 MW/km2, mean ± 95 % confidence interval) and higher in other land cover types (3.30 ± 0.03 MW/km2). Notably, advancements in turbine manufacturing could reduce power density in areas with lower wind speeds by adopting low specific-power turbines, but improve power density in areas with higher wind speeds (>8.35 m/s at 120m above the ground), highlighting opportunities for repowering existing wind farms. Wind energy potential is shaped by wind resource quality and is regionally characterized by land cover and physical conditions, revealing significant capacity potential in the Great Plains and Upper Texas. The results indicate that areas previously identified as hot spots using existing approaches (e.g., the west of the Rocky Mountains) may have a limited capacity potential due to low wind resource quality. Improvements in methodology and capacity potential estimates in this study could serve as a new basis for future energy systems analysis and planning.

Dai, Tao↗

Next Generation Thin-Film Solar Absorbers Based on Chalcogenides

Harvesting solar energy has never been more important than today as the world is combating the implications of global climate change. Grid decarbonization is a central component of efforts to keep the global temperature increase below 2 °C following the 2015 Paris Agreement. The Sun is the cleanest and most abundant renewable energy source with the Earth’s surface receiving enough energy in an hour to meet the world’s annual energy demands. Therefore, we need to take advantage of the essentially limitless clean solar energy for powering our society; this can be achieved using photovoltaics (PV), direct conversion of sunlight into electricity using semiconductor materials. To gain full advantage of this technology, however, the cost of PV must be competitive with the more traditional carbon-based sources (coal, oil, and natural gas). Most recent developments on this front, including the current state-of-the-art solar cell technologies and ongoing work on a new generation of light absorbing chalcogenide materials, are discussed by Lydia Wong and colleagues in a comprehensive new review article (10.1021/acs.chemrev.1c00301). The Review covers a broad class of materials and provides a comparison between different materials on the basis of diode parameters and DFT calculations. Furthermore, this Highlight will focus specifically on copper zinc tin sulfide (CZTS).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Exploring the cost and emissions impacts, feasibility and scalability of battery electric ships

The United States’ greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction goals, along with targets set by the International Maritime Organization, create an opportunity for battery electric shipping. In this study, we model life-cycle costs and GHG emissions from shipping electrification, leveraging ship activity datasets from across the United States in 2021. We estimate that retrofitting 6,323 domestic ships under 1,000 gross tonnage to battery electric vessels would reduce US domestic shipping GHG emissions by up to 73% by 2035 from 2022 levels. By 2035, electrifying up to 85% of these ships could become cost effective versus internal combustion engine ships if they cover 99% of annual trips and charge from a deeply decarbonized grid. We find that charging demands from electrifying these ships could be concentrated at just 20 of 150 major ports nationwide. This study demonstrates that retrofitting to battery electric vessels has economic potential and could significantly accelerate GHG emission reductions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Analysis of Energy Justice and Equity Impacts from Replacing Peaker Plants with Energy Storage

Transitions to low-carbon energy systems are essential to mitigating and adapting to climate change. Energy storage systems are a key component in achieving a viable decarbonized electric grid. However, decarbonization alone does not guarantee a fairer, more inclusive, or socially just energy system. Energy equity and justice should be integrated in energy system transitions to ensure benefits and burdens are shared equitably. In this paper, we discuss the relationship between energy storage and social equity by assessing the use of energy storage to replace natural gas-fired (NG) peaker plants. Peaker plants are disproportionately located near disadvantaged communities and tend to be older and high emitters of health-affecting fine particulate matter and other pollutants. This paper investigates the equity implications of NG peaker plant replacements with battery energy storage in the context of Washington State’s peaker plants to highlight the human-centered values of retiring the plants. The study performed production cost simulations using the latest Western Electric Coordinating Council Anchor Dataset 2030 case and found that total generation cost, locational marginal price, and total annual emissions were reduced with the replacements. These reductions will have equity benefits on local communities including access to clean air, enhanced health outcomes, and energy burden reductions.

Tarekegne, Bethel W.↗

Restoration Hydro: A Watershed Approach to Standard Modular New Hydropower

The objectives of FOA DE- FOA-0001836- “Standard Modular Hydropower” included designing a standardized, modular, and environmentally compatible hydropower schematic for implementation in greenfield sites that generate up to 10 MW of capacity. Utilizing funds competitively awarded under DOE’s Water Power Technologies Office, the Natel Energy team developed a concept for modular new stream reach (NSR) hydropower that incorporates multi species upstream and downstream fish passage, improved river channel connectivity, and recreational modules. The in-stream design of the collective modules minimized site specific design and maximized the opportunities for modularity. Financial data was also presented using actual costs from regional suppliers, with figures provided in 2022 dollars. While the project team did not address potential permitting process improvements, the site selection criteria did consider established barriers to hydropower development such as tribal and preserved lands, interconnection proximity, and endangered species to exclude or deprioritize. The project’s design schematic met the objectives of the FOA, and presented a unique solution that targets alluvial pockets as natural features for sustainable development. Natel’s concept also incorporated the company's fish-safe Restoration Hydro Turbine for safe downstream passage, while featuring a rock arch that integrates fish passage, water, recreation, and grade control modules (including sediment). Alignment with the Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) “Innovative Design Concepts for Standard Modular Hydropower and Pumped-Storage Hydropower” Program: According to the Hydropower Vision (DOE, 2016), approximately 16 GW of hydropower growth is possible with the development of technology solutions that balance efficiency, economics, and environmental sustainability. The desired outcome of the SMH program is transformational innovation specifically in the site identification, conceptual, and detailed design phases of technology development lifecycles (DOE, 2018). In developing the SMH design schematic, the team aimed to address the opportunities outlined in the Vision through an inverted design philosophy; rather than singularly prioritizing efficiency and power production, the team focused on integrating hydropower with restoration of degraded streams to optimal ecosystem function and provision of exceptional recreation value as design criteria. To achieve this, Restoration Hydro incorporates the principles of nature-based engineering (WWAP, 2018) and biomimicry (Biomimicry NL.) to strategically deploy complementary combinations of permanent, semi-permanent, and ephemeral low-head structures - such as natural and engineered log jams - that harness geomorphological and hydrological processes at the landscape-scale. Primary applications of Restoration Hydro include: 1) restoration of degraded watersheds’ natural ecological function and enhancement of hydrological connectivity; and 2) creation of associated co-benefits to hydro production, including increased groundwater recharge, improved sediment transport and management, improved water security and water quality. Restoration Hydro projects build upon proven watershed restoration engineering techniques by integrating hydropower turbines into low-head structures using innovative and evolving civil works concepts that facilitate fish and sediment passage, and in some cases create additional revenue-generating recreational opportunities. Powering low-head structures creates a directly monetizable layer of economic value in the form of flexible, reliable, renewable energy on top of the already high-value water, environmental and recreational benefits of watershed and river restoration. The approach aims to create a virtuous, self-reinforcing cycle whereby Restoration Hydro projects support the scaling of ecosystem restoration activities, creating a water-energy-carbon multiplier effect that, through the principles of adaptive change management: 1) improves the resilience of landscapes and downstream population centers for changing hydrological cycles; 2) creates a reliable energy resource that facilitates the integration of intermittent renewable power sources into grids; and 3) supports climate change mitigation through grid decarbonization and enhanced ecosystem carbon capture and retention.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗