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DOE OSTI2021

The Swan: Data-driven Inference of Stellar Surface Gravities for Cool Stars from Photometric Light Curves

Stellar light curves are well known to encode physical stellar properties. Precise, automated, and computationally inexpensive methods to derive physical parameters from light curves are needed to cope with the large influx of these data from space-based missions such as Kepler and TESS. Here we present a new methodology that we call “The Swan,” a fast, generalizable, and effective approach for deriving stellar surface gravity (logg) for main-sequence, subgiant, and red giant stars from Kepler light curves using local linear regression on the full frequency content of Kepler long-cadence power spectra. With this inexpensive data-driven approach, we recover logg to a precision of ~0.02 dex for 13,822 stars with seismic logg values between 0.2 and 4.4 dex and ~0.11 dex for 4646 stars with Gaia-derived logg values between 2.3 and 4.6 dex. We further develop a signal-to-noise metric and find that granulation is difficult to detect in many cool main-sequence stars (T {sub eff} ≲ 5500 K), in particular K dwarfs. By combining our logg measurements with Gaia radii, we derive empirical masses for 4646 subgiant and main-sequence stars with a median precision of ~7%. Finally, we demonstrate that our method can be used to recover logg to a similar mean absolute deviation precision for a TESS baseline of 27 days. Our methodology can be readily applied to photometric time series observations to infer stellar surface gravities to high precision across evolutionary states.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Groundwater Volume Loss in Mexico City Constrained by InSAR and GRACE Observations and Mechanical Models

Abstract Groundwater withdrawal can cause localized and rapid poroelastic subsidence, spatially broad elastic uplift of low amplitude, and changes in the gravity field. Constraining groundwater loss in Mexico City, we analyze data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and its follow‐on mission (GRACE/FO) and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Sentinel‐1A/B images between 2014 and 2021. GRACE/FO observations yield a groundwater loss of 0.85–3.87 km 3 /yr for a region of ∼300 × 600 km surrounding Mexico City. Using the high‐resolution interferometric SAR data set, we measure >35 cm/yr subsidence within the city and up to 2 cm/yr of uplift in nearby areas. Attributing the long‐term subsidence to poroelastic aquifer compaction and the long‐term uplift to elastic unloading, we apply respective models informed by local geology, yielding groundwater loss of 0.86–12.57 km 3 /yr. Our results suggest Mexico City aquifers have been depleting at faster rates since 2015, exacerbating the socioeconomic and health impacts of long‐term groundwater overdrafts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data Imbalance, Uncertainty Quantification, and Transfer Learning in Data‐Driven Parameterizations: Lessons From the Emulation of Gravity Wave Momentum Transport in WACCM

Abstract Neural networks (NNs) are increasingly used for data‐driven subgrid‐scale parameterizations in weather and climate models. While NNs are powerful tools for learning complex non‐linear relationships from data, there are several challenges in using them for parameterizations. Three of these challenges are (a) data imbalance related to learning rare, often large‐amplitude, samples; (b) uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predictions to provide an accuracy indicator; and (c) generalization to other climates, for example, those with different radiative forcings. Here, we examine the performance of methods for addressing these challenges using NN‐based emulators of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) physics‐based gravity wave (GW) parameterizations as a test case. WACCM has complex, state‐of‐the‐art parameterizations for orography‐, convection‐, and front‐driven GWs. Convection‐ and orography‐driven GWs have significant data imbalance due to the absence of convection or orography in most grid points. We address data imbalance using resampling and/or weighted loss functions, enabling the successful emulation of parameterizations for all three sources. We demonstrate that three UQ methods (Bayesian NNs, variational auto‐encoders, and dropouts) provide ensemble spreads that correspond to accuracy during testing, offering criteria for identifying when an NN gives inaccurate predictions. Finally, we show that the accuracy of these NNs decreases for a warmer climate (4 × CO 2 ). However, their performance is significantly improved by applying transfer learning, for example, re‐training only one layer using ∼1% new data from the warmer climate. The findings of this study offer insights for developing reliable and generalizable data‐driven parameterizations for various processes, including (but not limited to) GWs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Utah FORGE Raw Microgravity Composite Data: Updated 10/2021.

This is a microgravity dataset from the Utah FORGE site near Milford, Utah. This composite dataset was updated in October, 2021 and contains data from December 17th, 2018 through September 24th, 2021. The data includes the GPS location of the measurement, date of the measurement, name of the station, relative difference in gravity, and coordinates of the station. This data was generated by the Utah Geological Survey.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Short-Term Deformation in the Central Valley Using Machine Learning

Land subsidence caused by excessive groundwater pumping in Central Valley, California, is a major issue that has several negative impacts such as reduced aquifer storage and damaged infrastructures which, in turn, produce an economic loss due to the high reliance on crop production. This is why it is of utmost importance to routinely monitor and assess the surface deformation occurring. Two main goals that this paper attempts to accomplish are deformation characterization and deformation prediction. The first goal is realized through the use of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied to a series of Interferomtric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) images that produces eigenimages displaying the key characteristics of the subsidence. Water storage changes are also directly analyzed by the use of data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin satellites and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). The second goal is accomplished by building a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to predict short-term deformation after developing an InSAR time series using LiCSBAS, an open-source InSAR time series package. The model is applied to the city of Madera and produces better results than a baseline averaging model and a one dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN) based on a mean squared error metric showing the effectiveness of machine learning in deformation prediction as well as the potential for incorporation in hazard mitigation models. The model results can directly aid policy makers in determining the appropriate rate of groundwater withdrawal while maintaining the safety and well-being of the population as well as the aquifers’ integrity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Interpreting internal consistency of DES measurements

ABSTRACT Bayesian evidence ratios are widely used to quantify the statistical consistency between different experiments. However, since the evidence ratio is prior dependent, the precise translation between its value and the degree of concordance/discordance requires additional information. The most commonly adopted metric, the Jeffreys scale, can falsely suggest agreement between data sets when priors are chosen to be sufficiently wide. This work examines evidence ratios in a DES-Y1 simulated analysis, focusing on the internal consistency between weak lensing and galaxy clustering. We study two scenarios using simulated data in controlled experiments. First, we calibrate the expected evidence ratio distribution given noise realizations around the best-fitting DES-Y1 ΛCDM cosmology. Secondly, we show the behaviour of evidence ratios for noiseless fiducial data vectors simulated using a modified gravity model, which generates internal tension in the LCDM analysis. We find that the evidence ratio of noise realizations generated at all confidence levels was biased towards agreement and show, with a modified gravity model, that the choice of prior could conceal the discrepancies between weak lensing and galaxy clustering induced by prior effects in unlike cosmological models, concluding that the evidence ratio in a DES-Y1 study is, indeed, biased towards agreement. Boundary effects can also influence conclusions about the inconsistency induced by modified gravity, even in a noiseless data vector simulation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Constraining gravity with a new precision 𝐸 𝐺 estimator using Planck + SDSS BOSS data

The 𝐸 𝐺 statistic is a discriminating probe of gravity developed to test the prediction of general relativity (GR) for the relation between gravitational potential and clustering on the largest scales in the observable Universe. We present a novel high-precision estimator for the 𝐸 𝐺 statistic using CMB lensing and galaxy clustering correlations that carefully matches the effective redshifts across the different measurement components to minimize corrections. A suite of detailed tests is performed to characterize the estimator’s accuracy, its sensitivity to assumptions and analysis choices, and the non-Gaussianity of the estimator’s uncertainty is characterized. After finalization of the estimator, it is applied to Planck CMB lensing and SDSS CMASS and LOWZ galaxy data. We report the first harmonic space measurement of 𝐸 𝐺 using the LOWZ sample and CMB lensing and also updated constraints using the final CMASS sample and the latest Planck CMB lensing map. We find $\hat{𝐸}$$^{Planck+CMASS}_{𝐺}$ = 0.3⁢6$^{+0.06}_{−0.05}$⁢(68.27%) and $\hat{𝐸}$$^{Planck+LOWZ}_{𝐺}$ = 0.4⁢0$^{+0.11}_{−0.09}$⁢(68.27%), with additional subdominant systematic error budget estimates of 2% and 3%, respectively. Using Ω m,0 constraints from Planck and SDSS BAO observations, Λ⁢CDM-GR predicts 𝐸$^{GR}_ {𝐺}$⁡(𝑧 =0.555) = 0.401 ± 0.005 and 𝐸$^{GR}_{𝐺}$⁡(𝑧 =0.316) = 0.452 ± 0.005 at the effective redshifts of the CMASS and LOWZ based measurements. We report the measurement to be in good statistical agreement with the Λ⁢CDM-GR prediction and report that the measurement is also consistent with the more general GR prediction of scale independence for 𝐸 𝐺 . Furthermore, this work provides a carefully constructed and calibrated statistic with which 𝐸 𝐺 measurements can be confidently and accurately obtained with upcoming survey data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A small core in Vesta inferred from Dawn’s observations

Vesta’s large-scale interior structure had previously been constrained primarily using the gravity and shape data from the Dawn mission. However, these data alone still allow a wide range of possibilities for the differentiation state of the body. The moment of inertia is arguably the most diagnostic parameter related to the radial density distribution of a planetary body, making it crucial for assessing the body’s state of internal differentiation. Determining the moment of inertia requires additional measurements of the amplitudes of small rotational motions, such as precession and nutation. Here we report an updated estimate of the moment of inertia of Vesta inferred from Dawn’s Doppler tracking via the Deep Space Network and onboard imaging data. The recovered value for Vesta’s normalized polar moment of inertia is $\overline{C}$/MR 2 = 0.4208 ± 0.0047 (where M is the mass of Vesta and R is the reference radius), which is only 6.6% lower than the homogeneous value of 0.4505. This value, combined with the gravity field and global shape, suggests that Vesta’s interior has limited density stratification beneath its howardite–eucrite–diogenite-dominated crust. We propose two possible origin scenarios that are consistent with the observed constraints. In the first scenario, Vesta’s interior did not undergo full differentiation due to late accretion. In the second scenario, Vesta originated as an impact remnant of a larger differentiated body re-accreted with non-chondritic bulk composition produced from a catastrophic impact. Vesta did not experience complete differentiation in either scenario, suggesting that its current state reflects a complex interplay between its accretion timing, thermal evolution, redistribution of 26 Al bearing melt and/or impact processes.

CNEOS 2014-01-08 bolide↗

DOE OSTI2022

Kimberlina 1.2 CCUS Geophysical Models and Synthetic Data Sets

This synthetic multi-scale and multi-physics data set was produced in collaboration with teams at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, National Energy Technology Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Colorado School of Mines through the Science-informed Machine Learning for Accelerating Real-Time Decisions in Subsurface Applications (SMART) Initiative. Data are associated with the following publication: Alumbaugh, D., Gasperikova, E., Crandall, D., Commer, M., Feng, S., Harbert, W., Li, Y., Lin, Y., and Samarasinghe, S., “The Kimberlina Synthetic Geophysical Model and Data Set for CO2 Monitoring Investigations”, The Geoscience Data Journal, 2023, DOI: 10.1002/gdj3.191. The dataset uses the Kimberlina 1.2 CO2 reservoir flow model simulations based on a hypothetical CO2 storage site in California (Birkholzer et al., 2011; Wainwright et al., 2013). Geophysical properties models (P- and S-wave seismic velocities, saturated density, and electrical resistivity) were produced with an approach similar to that of Yang et al. (2019) and Gasperikova et al. (2022) for 100 Kimberlina 1.2 reservoir models. Links to individual resources are provided below: [CO2 Saturation Models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-co2-saturation-models); Resistivity Models – [part 1](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-resistivity-models-part-1), [part 2](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-resistivity-models-part-2), and [part 3](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-resistivity-models-part-3); [Vp Velocity Models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-vp-velocity-models); [Vs Velocity Models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-vs-velocity-models); [Density Models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-density-models). The 3D distributions of geophysical properties for the 33 time stamps of the SIM001 model were used to generate synthetic seismic, gravity, and electromagnetic (EM) responses for 33 times between zero and 200 years. Synthetic surface seismic data were generated using 2D and 3D finite-difference codes that simulate the acoustic wave equation (Moczo et al., 2007). 2D data were simulated for six point-pressure sources along a 2D line with 10 m receiver spacing and a time spacing of 0.0005 s. 3D simulations were completed for 25 surface pressure sources using a source separation of 1 km in both the x and y directions and a time spacing of 0.001 s. Links to individual resources are provided below: [2D velocity models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-2d-velocity-models) and [2D surface seismic data](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-2d-surface-seismic-data). [3D velocity models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-velocity-models), and 3D seismic data [year0](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year0), [year1](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year1), [year2](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year2), [year5](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year5), [year10](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year10), [year15](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year15), [year20](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year20), [year25](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year25), [year30](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year30), [year35](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year35), [year40](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year40), [year45](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year45), [year49](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year49), [year50](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year50), [year51](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year51), [year52](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year52), [year55](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year55), [year60](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year60), [year65](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year65), [year70](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year70), [year75](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year75), [year80](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year80), [year85](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year85), [year90](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year90), [year95](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year95), [year100](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year100), [year110](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year110), [year120](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year120), [year130](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year130), [year140](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year140), [year150](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year150), [year175](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year175), [year200](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year200). The Python scripts to read these models and data are provided [here](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-python-scripts). EM simulations used a borehole-to-surface survey configuration, with the source located near the reservoir level and receivers on the surface using the code developed by Commer and Newman (2008). Pseudo-2D data for the source at [2500 m](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-pseudo-2d-csem-data-tz2500m) and [3025 m](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-pseudo-2d-csem-data-tz3025m), used a 2D inline receiver configuration to simulate a response over 3D resistivity models. The [3D data](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-csem-data) contain electric fields generated by borehole sources at monitoring well locations and measured over a surface receiver grid. Vector gravity data, both on the surface and in boreholes, were simulated using a modeling code developed by Rim and Li (2015). The simulation scenarios were parallel to those used for the EM: [pseudo-2D data](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-gravity-data) were calculated along the same lines and within the same boreholes, and [3D data](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-gravity-data) were simulated over 3D models on the surface and in three monitoring wells. A series of [synthetic well logs](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-well-logs) of CO2 saturation, acoustic velocity, density, and induction resistivity in the injection well and three monitoring wells are also provided at 0, 1, 2, 5, 10, 15, and 20 years after the initiation of injection. These were constructed by combining the low-frequency trend of the geophysical models with the high-frequency variations of actual well logs collected in the Kimberlina 1 well that was drilled at the proposed site. Measurements of permeability and pore connectivity were made on cores of Vedder Sandstone, which forms the primary reservoir unit: [CT micro scans](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-ct-micro-scans-of-vedder-formation) and [Industrial CT Images](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-industrial-ct-images-vedder-formation). These measurements provide the range of scales in the otherwise synthetic data set to be as close to a real-world situation as possible. References: Birkholzer, J.T., Zhou, Q., Cortis, A. and Finsterle, S., 2011. A sensitivity study on regional pressure buildup from large-scale CO2 storage projects. Energy Procedia, 4, 4371-4378. Commer, M., and Newman, G.A., 2008. New advances in three-dimensional controlled-source electromagnetic inversion, Geophysical Journal International, 172, 513-535. Gasperikova, E., Appriou, D., Bonneville, A., Feng, Z., Huang, L., Gao, K., Yang, X., Daley, T., 2022, Sensitivity of geophysical techniques for monitoring secondary CO2 storage plumes, Int. J. Greenh. Gas Control, Volume 114, 103585, ISSN 1750-5836, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2022.103585. Moczo, P., J.O. Robertsson and L. Eisner, 2007, The finite-difference time-domain method for modeling of seismic wave propagation: Advances in geophysics, 48, 421-516. Rim, H., and Y. Li, 2015, Advantages of borehole vector gravity in density imaging, Geophysics, 80, G1-G13. Wainwright, H. M.; Finsterle, S.; Zhou, Q.; Birkholzer, J. T., 2013. Modeling the Performance of Large-Scale CO2 Storage Systems: A Comparison of Different Sensitivity Analysis Methods. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 17, 189205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2013.05.007, DOI: 10.18141/1603331. Yang, X., Buscheck, T.A., Mansoor, K., Wang, Z., Gao, K., Huang, L., Appriou, D., and Carroll, S.A., 2019. Assessment of geophysical monitoring methods for detection of brine and CO2 leakage in drinking water aquifers, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 90, 102803, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.102803.

CCUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Isomers and Dark Matter: 180m Ta and 178m Hf [Slides]

Dark matter has attractive gravitational interactions. It does not interact with light, or has very small electromagnetic coupling. It is stable, or has a lifetime much longer than the age of the Universe. No departure model from the law of gravity explains all data, whereas particle dark matter can.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structure of the Ecuadorian Upper Plate From a Joint Seismic‐Gravity Inversion

The Ecuadorian portion of the South American subduction zone presents an interesting case study in the structure and complex evolution of an upper plate. There are outstanding questions about its tectonic history, composition, and magmatic processes. While previous studies have employed ambient noise tomography to image the Ecuadorian upper plate, surface wave inversions alone often lack sensitivity at relevant shallow depths. This limitation can be overcome with an independent, complementary data set, such as gravity. We have jointly inverted Rayleigh wave phase velocities and Bouguer gravity anomalies to provide a more detailed seismic velocity model of the Ecuadorian upper plate. Our joint inversion has yielded several key improvements from previous models. First, we observe much shallower slow velocities beneath major basins (the Manabí, Progreso, and Gulf of Guayaquil), better aligning with expected basin structure. Second, we identify a high-velocity block beneath the entire forearc, corresponding to the Piñon Terrane, with velocities suggesting the presence of ultramafic material. Third, we highlight a new narrow swath of slow velocities beneath the Ecuadorian Andes, which closely follows the active volcanoes along the Eastern Cordillera. The extent of these slow velocities coincides with the termination of active arc volcanism and the predicted location of the subducted Carnegie Ridge. The predicted compositions for the mid to lower crust in the region preclude a purely compositional explanation for these velocities, suggesting that some level of partial melt is necessary.

Birkey, Andrew [Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE (Uni↗

DOE OSTI2024

Utah FORGE: Southwestern Utah Magnetotelluric (MT) Data

This comprehensive magnetotellurics (MT) dataset, which covers southwestern Utah, integrates 600 sites from various surveys, including those from the Utah FORGE, SubTER, and Play Fairway projects, all of which are linked below. The core of this dataset is the use of a 3D finite element (FE) algorithm for inversion imaging, allowing for detailed analysis of the MT data. Provided here are all .edi files, the 3D finite element mesh (with a readme file), graphic slices, node graphics, resistivity graphics, and reports on the acquisition areas and inversion.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Deep Gravity model for mobility flows generation

The movements of individuals within and among cities influence critical aspects of our society, such as well-being, the spreading of epidemics, and the quality of the environment. When information about mobility flows is not available for a particular region of interest, we must rely on mathematical models to generate them. In this work, we propose Deep Gravity, an effective model to generate flow probabilities that exploits many features (e.g., land use, road network, transport, food, health facilities) extracted from voluntary geographic data, and uses deep neural networks to discover non-linear relationships between those features and mobility flows. Our experiments, conducted on mobility flows in England, Italy, and New York State, show that Deep Gravity achieves a significant increase in performance, especially in densely populated regions of interest, with respect to the classic gravity model and models that do not use deep neural networks or geographic data. Deep Gravity has good generalization capability, generating realistic flows also for geographic areas for which there is no data availability for training. Finally, we show how flows generated by Deep Gravity may be explained in terms of the geographic features and highlight crucial differences among the three considered countries interpreting the model’s prediction with explainable AI techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

GeoThermalCloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The primary goals of this project are exploring hidden geothermal resources in the U.S.A. and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many processes and parameters control geothermal exploration and energy production from geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize subsurface geothermal conditions. Sparse and multi-scale characteristics of these datasets prohibit properly leveraging these datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) promise to resolve these issues. The tremendous challenges and risks of geothermal exploration and production bring the demand for novel ML methods and tools that can (1) analyze large field datasets, (2) assimilate model simulations (large inputs and outputs), (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning (between sites with different exploratory levels), (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures in the field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. To address these necessities, ML-based geothermal resources exploration and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) design tools have been developed. The exploration tool is called GeoThermalCloud and EGS design tool is called GeoDT-ML. GeoThermalCloud (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl) utilizes a LANL unsupervised ML platform called SmartTensors (https://tensors.lanl.gov/) to automate data analyses and interpretations by extracting hidden signatures to identify geothermal prospects. Also, it enables the identification of critical measurements needed to identify geothermal resource signatures. Alternatively, GeoDT-ML (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/EGS) is an ML-based alternative to GeoDT (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git), a fast, simplified multi-physics solver to evaluate EGS project designs in uncertain geologic systems. GeoDT-ML leverages recent advances in deep learning and high-performance computing. It is a faster and simpler version of GeoDT. To make this project a success, we used capabilities of LANL, PNNL, Google, Stanford, and Julia Computing. We analyzed eight datasets of the U.S.A. using GeothermalCloud and demonstrated potential highly prospective geothermal resources and identified key factors defining highly prospective sites. The first data set includes 44 locations in southwest New Mexico and 18 geological, hydrogeological, geophysical, geothermal, geochemical attributes. We defined low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems and discovered a new highly prospective site. The second data set analyzed 18 shallow water chemistry attributes at 14,342 locations in the Great Basin. It demarcated modestly, moderately, and highly prospective sites including key attributes for each type of prospectivity. The third data set analyzed Utah FORGE data including satellite (InSAR), geophysical (gravity, seismic), geochemical, and geothermal attributes. Here, we performed prospectivity analysis to identify future drilling locations using geological, geochemical, and geophysical attributes. Maps of temperature at depth and heat flow are constructed based on the available data. Prospectivity maps were generated, and drilling locations were proposed for future geothermal field exploration. The fourth data set analyzed 21 attributes at 120 locations in Tularosa Basin, New Mexico; data comes from past play fairway analyses in this region. ML analyses identified geothermal signatures associated with modestly, moderately, and highly hydrothermal systems. We also defined dominant attributes and spatial distribution of the geothermal signatures. The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth datasets include Tohatchi Springs, New Mexico, Hawaii, Brady site, Nevada, and EGS Collab, respectively. Moreover, we coupled GeothermalCloud and magnetotellurics data to pinpoint drilling locations for developing geothermal projects in the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico. GeothermalCloud found potential prospective locations for geothermal resources near White Sands Missile Range and McGregor Range at Fort Bliss. Magnetotellurics data determined the potential depth (~1800m) of geothermal prospects at McGregor Range based on apparent resistivity structures/layers in the subsurface. The McGregor Range consists of three resistivity layers and two resistivity structures. Magnetotellurics data also helps identify that the western portion of the McGregor Range has thick and low-resistivity earth materials. The low resistivity to the west is most likely for a fault system. Assuming temperature is consistent with a geothermal reservoir, the west-central part of the McGregor Range has the highest geothermal potential because of the increase in porosity and associated permeability attributed to the interpreted fault system. Also, we devised a coupling strategy between a process model and GeothermalCloud to characterize hydrogeological conditions and geothermal conditions, respectively. The process model characterizes hydrogeological and geothermal conditions on highly prospective geothermal sites provided by GeothermalCloud. We developed a physics-informed neural network (PINN) version of the Burns equation that can be easily coupled with GeothermalCloud. Furthermore, we performed an optimal design decision maximizing the economic value of an EGS power plant. This study optimized the range of well spacing between injection and production wells maximizing net present value in dollars (NPV). For this task, we used the GeoDT to simulate the Utah FORGE EGS development cycle from the initial well design to the end of production. Next, we accomplished another crucial task, which is predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs. Predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs is a non-trivial task because of huge computational runtime of simulation and lack of measurements. To avoid these limitations, we used easy-to-measure chemical concentrations in the subsurface as measurement data and convolutional neural network based ML model of a high-fidelity model. Next, we predicted permeability using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. We found that Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation predicts permeability with a high certainty if the prediction zone in the simulation area has chemical concentration data. Finally, we analyzed the DOE funded INGENIOUS and GeoDAWN projects data. For discovering hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin, the INGENIOUS project accumulated old data, collected new data, and released them in 2022. The dataset includes a total of 24 geological, geophysical, and geochemical attributes. Data resolution and scale significantly vary prohibiting an appropriate usage. To avoid such limitations, we brought all data in the same resolution and scale by applying the inverse distance weighting interpolation technique for predicting data in unsampled locations. Subsequently, we analyzed LiDAR data of the GeoDAWN project. We received data in tiles format. The DOE’s overarching goal is to use ML on LiDAR data for finding favorable geological structures (e.g., step up faults in Brady, Nevada). To serve the purpose, we need to label favorable geologic structures that correspond to LiDAR data. We wrote an algorithm to label the LiDAR data with the favorable geologic structures.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

DESI 2024 VII: cosmological constraints from the full-shape modeling of clustering measurements

We present cosmological results from the measurement of clustering of galaxy, quasar and Lyman-α forest tracers from the first year of observations with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI Data Release 1). We adopt the full-shape (FS) modeling of the power spectrum, including the effects of redshift-space distortions, in an analysis which has been thoroughly validated in a series of supporting papers as summarised in [1]. We combine the full-shape information with DESI's DR1 constraints from the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) of these tracers. In the flat ΛCDM cosmological model, DESI (FS+BAO), combined with a baryon density prior from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis and a weak prior on the scalar spectral index, determines matter density to Ω m = 0.2962 ± 0.0095, and the amplitude of mass fluctuations to σ 8 = 0.842 ± 0.034. The addition of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) data tightens these constraints to Ω m = 0.3056 ± 0.0049 and σ 8 = 0.8121 ± 0.0053, while further addition of the joint clustering and lensing analysis from the Dark Energy Survey Year-3 (DESY3) data further improves these measurements, and leads to a 0.4% determination of the Hubble constant, H 0 = (68.40 ± 0.27) km s -1 Mpc -1 . In models with a time-varying dark energy equation of state parametrised by w 0 and w a , combinations of DESI (FS+BAO) with CMB and type Ia supernovae continue to show the preference, previously found in the DESI DR1 BAO analysis, for w 0 > -1 and w a < 0 with similar levels of significance. DESI data, in combination with the CMB, improve the upper limits on the sum of the neutrino masses relative to the case when only the DR1 BAO was available, giving ∑m ν < 0.071 eV at 95% confidence. We finally constrain deviations from general relativity represented by two modified gravity parameters. DESI (FS+BAO) data alone measure the parameter that controls the clustering of massive particles, μ 0 = 0.11 +0.45 -0.54 , in agreement with the zero value predicted by general relativity. The combination of DESI with the CMB and the clustering and lensing analysis from DESY3 constrains both modified-gravity parameters, giving μ 0 = 0.04 ± 0.22 and Σ 0 = 0.044 ± 0.047, again in agreement with general relativity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cosmology with the Roman Space Telescope – Synergies with CMB lensing

ABSTRACT We explore synergies between the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope and CMB lensing data to constrain dark energy and modified gravity scenarios. A simulated likelihood analysis of the galaxy clustering and weak lensing data from the Roman Space Telescope High Latitude Survey combined with CMB lensing data from the Simons Observatory is undertaken, marginalizing over important astrophysical effects and calibration uncertainties. Included in the modelling are the effects of baryons on small-scale clustering, scale-dependent growth suppression by neutrinos, as well as uncertainties in the galaxy clustering biases, in the intrinsic alignment contributions to the lensing signal, in the redshift distributions, and in the galaxy shape calibration. The addition of CMB lensing roughly doubles the dark energy figure-of-merit from Roman photometric survey data alone, varying from a factor of 1.7 to 2.4 improvement depending on the particular Roman survey configuration. Alternatively, the inclusion of CMB lensing information can compensate for uncertainties in the Roman galaxy shape calibration if it falls below the design goals. Furthermore, we report the first forecast of Roman constraints on a model-independent structure growth, parametrized by σ8(z), and on the Hu-Sawicki f(R) gravity as well as an improved forecast of the phenomenological (Σ0, μ0) model. We find that CMB lensing plays a crucial role in constraining σ8(z) at z > 2, with percent-level constraints forecasted out to z = 4. CMB lensing information does not improve constraints on the f(R) model substantially. It does, however, increase the (Σ0, μ0) figure-of-merit by a factor of about 1.5.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Misinterpreting modified gravity as dark energy: a quantitative study

Standard cosmological data analyses typically constrain simple phenomenological dark-energy parameters, for example the present-day value of the equation of state parameter, w 0 , and its variation with scale factor, w a . However, results from such an analysis cannot easily indicate the presence of modified gravity. Even if general relativity does not hold, experimental data could still be fit sufficiently well by a phenomenological w 0 w a CDM, unmodified-gravity model. Hence, it would be very useful to know if there are generic signatures of modified gravity in standard analyses. Here we present, for the first time to our knowledge, a quantitative mapping showing how modified gravity models look when (mis)interpreted within the standard unmodified-gravity analysis. Scanning through a broad space of modified-gravity (Horndeski) models, and assuming a near-future survey consisting of CMB, BAO, and SNIa observations, we report values of the best-fit set of cosmological parameters including (w 0 , w a ) that would be inferred if modified gravity were at work. We find that modified gravity models that can masquerade as standard gravity lead to very specific biases in standard-parameter spaces. Here, we also comment on implications for measurements of the amplitude of mass fluctuations described by the parameter S 8 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Probing gravity with the DES-CMASS sample and BOSS spectroscopy

ABSTRACT The DES-CMASS sample (DMASS) is designed to optimally combine the weak lensing measurements from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and redshift-space distortions (RSD) probed by the CMASS galaxy sample from the Baryonic Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey. In this paper, we demonstrate the feasibility of adopting DMASS as the equivalent of CMASS for a joint analysis of DES and BOSS in the framework of modified gravity. We utilize the angular clustering of the DMASS galaxies, cosmic shear of the DES metacalibration sources, and cross-correlation of the two as data vectors. By jointly fitting the combination of the data with the RSD measurements from the CMASS sample and Planck data, we obtain the constraints on modified gravity parameters $\mu _0=-0.37^{+0.47}_{-0.45}$ and $\Sigma _0=0.078^{+0.078}_{-0.082}$. Our constraints of modified gravity with DMASS are tighter than those with the DES Year 1 redMaGiC sample with the same external data sets by 29 per cent for μ0 and 21 per cent for Σ0, and comparable to the published results of the DES Year 1 modified gravity analysis despite this work using fewer external data sets. This improvement is mainly because the galaxy bias parameter is shared and more tightly constrained by both CMASS and DMASS, effectively breaking the degeneracy between the galaxy bias and other cosmological parameters. Such an approach to optimally combine photometric and spectroscopic surveys using a photometric sample equivalent to a spectroscopic sample can be applied to combining future surveys having a limited overlap such as DESI and LSST.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗