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At least 37 records · Page 2

The Simons Observatory: science goals and forecasts for the enhanced Large Aperture Telescope

We describe updated scientific goals for the wide-field, millimeter-wave survey that will be produced by the Simons Observatory (SO). Significant upgrades to the 6-meter SO Large Aperture Telescope (LAT) are expected to be complete by 2028, and will include a doubled mapping speed with 30,000 new detectors and an automated data reduction pipeline. In addition, a new photovoltaic array will supply most of the observatory's power. The LAT survey will cover about 60% of the sky at a regular observing cadence, with five times the angular resolution and ten times the map depth of the Planck satellite. The science goals are to: (1) determine the physical conditions in the early universe and constrain the existence of new light particles; (2) measure the integrated distribution of mass, electron pressure, and electron momentum in the late-time universe, and, in combination with optical surveys, determine the neutrino mass and the effects of dark energy via tomographic measurements of the growth of structure at redshifts z ≲ 3; (3) measure the distribution of electron density and pressure around galaxy groups and clusters, and calibrate the effects of energy input from galaxy formation on the surrounding environment; (4) produce a sample of more than 30,000 galaxy clusters, and more than 100,000 extragalactic millimeter sources, including regularly sampled AGN light-curves, to study these sources and their emission physics; (5) measure the polarized emission from magnetically aligned dust grains in our Galaxy, to study the properties of dust and the role of magnetic fields in star formation; (6) constrain asteroid regoliths, search for Trans-Neptunian Objects, and either detect or eliminate large portions of the phase space in the search for Planet 9; and (7) provide a powerful new window into the transient universe on time scales of minutes to years, concurrent with observations from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory of overlapping sky.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantifying Energy Justice Goals in the Power Sector: Developing and Using Metrics

New policy goals are explicitly guiding the future grid toward greater energy equity. At the same time, policy goals also guide the grid toward decarbonization and resilience, while maintaining cost, security, and reliability cornerstone requirements. In conclusion, these pressures create a dilemma: moving urgently to address climate change and respond to energy disruptions, but also slowly to engage communities on the climate frontlines in earnest.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Model-based Design Optimization to Achieve the Performance Goals (16.0 SEER/9.5 HSPF), Developing Heat Pump by Using Low-GWP Refrigerants and 5 mm Diameter Tubes

Usage of low-GWP refrigerants can reduce the Green House Gas (GHG) emission of HVAC systems. Our research in previous milestone report has shown that using heat exchangers with 5 mm diameter tubes instead of 9 mm diameter tubes is a promising solution to meet the performance goals of heat pump using low-GWP refrigerants. In addition, the 5mm tube heat exchangers can lead to lower system refrigerant charge and as a result, reduce environmental impact further. However, shifting to small tube diameters requires in-depth heat exchanger design optimization to adapt to the transition to low-GWP refrigerants. In the 2nd quarter of FY21, we conducted multi-objective optimizations using Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm on a residential 5-ton air source heat pump to investigate the potential system performance improvements and material savings. 4 low-GWP refrigerants, ARM20A, ARM20B, R454A and R454C are investigated in this study. The objectives of the optimization are to minimize the heat pump material cost and to maximize the system performance simultaneously. As a result, the HXs material cost is reduced by up to 77% according to the copper and aluminum material price in current market. Under heating mode operation, the smart 4-way valve guarantees that the optimal low-GWP systems maintain or outperform the heating performance of the R410A baseline system. The model-based design optimization yields 18.3-18.9 SEER and 10.6-11.9 HSPF for optimal systems using different low-GWP refrigerants. The initial performance goals (16.0 SEER/9.5 HSPF) are achieved. Furthermore, up to 50% system refrigerant charge reduction is possible in the optimized low-GWP heat pump system using ARM20B. And 91%-95% predicted life-time direct CO 2 emission reduction is achieved by using the optimal 5mm tube low-GWP heat pumps. The significant material saving, charge reduction and direct CO 2 emission reduction help in reducing the environmental impacts of heat pump systems. The optimal heat exchangers resulting from this research can fit into the original baseline indoor and outdoor fan-coil unit. This can reduce the retrofitting effort by minimizing the change in manufacturing and installation of the heat pumps and guarantee the compatibility with end-users’ house structure. Finally, the new products can be easily accepted by manufacturers and end-users.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Biota Modeling in EPA’s Preliminary Remediation Goal and Dose Compliance Concentration Calculators for Use in EPA Superfund Risk Assessment: Explanation of Intake Rate Derivation, Transfer Factor Compilation, and Mass Loading Factor Sources

The Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) calculators are screening level risk assessment tools that set forth the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) recommended approaches and currently available risk assessment guidance for response actions at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites, commonly known as Superfund. The environmental screening levels derived by the PRG and DCC calculators are used to identify isotopes contributing the highest risk and dose as well as establish preliminary remediation goals. Each calculator has residential gardening and subsistence farmer exposure scenarios that model transfer of contaminants from soil and water into various types of biota (crops and animal products). New publications of human intake rates of biota; farm animal intakes of water, soil, and fodder; and soil to plant interactions require updates be implemented into the PRG and DCC calculators. Recent improvements in the biota modeling for these calculators include newly derived biota intake rates, enhanced soil mass loading factors (MLFs), and more comprehensive soil to plant transfer factors (BV’s) and soil to tissue transfer factors (TFs) for animals. New biota have been added in both the produce and animal products categories that greatly improve the accuracy and utility of the PRG and DCC calculators and encompass greater geographic diversity on a national and international scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predictive Flow Simulation with the P2R Model for the 200-IA-1 Preliminary Remediation Goal Saturated Zone Abstraction

In order to develop and evaluate alternatives for remediation of waste sites constituting the 200-IA-1 Operable Unit (OU), a focused feasibility study (FFS) is currently underway. The 200-IA-1 OU FFS requires preliminary remediation goals (PRGs) protective of groundwater be evaluated which includes estimates of fate and transport of contaminants in the groundwater from multiple sources within the Central Plateau Inner Area. This document details the application of the Plateau-to-River (P2R) Model version 8.3 to predict the flow of groundwater on the Central Plateau for the 10,000-year simulation to support the 200-IA-1 OU PRG calculation. The simulated flow field will support the simulation of fate and transport of contaminants for use in estimating peak unit-length concentration as part of the 200-IA-1 OU PRG calculation presented in a separate environmental calculation file (ECF) (ECF-200IA1-20-0108, Determination of Preliminary Remediation Goals for 200-IA-1 Source Operable Unit).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

State Energy Offices’ Engagement in Electric Distribution Planning to Meet State Policy Goals

NASEO and Berkeley Lab released a new publication on State Energy Offices’ Engagement in Electric Distribution Planning to Meet State Policy Goals. State and Territory Energy Offices develop plans, programs, policies, and projects that have a substantial impact on electric distribution systems. They also can participate in distribution system planning (DSP) processes to help ensure that utilities – consumer- and investor-owned – meet the state’s future energy needs. This paper recognizes the wide spectrum of roles that State Energy Offices can play in DSP processes, including planning for distributed energy resources and grid modernization. It highlights various examples of non-regulatory activities by State Energy Offices including planning, conducting studies, convening stakeholder processes, and implementing programs that inform and contribute to distribution system planning. It also provides examples of State Energy Offices’ engagement in proceedings before their respective public utility commissions. As State Energy Offices face myriad challenges associated with meeting state policy goals, preparing for anticipated rates of distributed energy resource deployment, addressing concerns regarding grid reliability and resilience, and recommending and making long-term investment decisions, the examples provided through this guide can serve as a resource in navigating those challenges.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Opportunities for agrivoltaic systems to achieve synergistic food-energy-environmental needs and address sustainability goals

Achieving decarbonization goals to address global climate change and increasing energy needs requires significant continued investments in solar energy. The expansion of utility-scale solar development across the globe has increased the pressure on land resources for energy generation and other land uses (e.g., agriculture, biodiversity conservation). To address this growing issue, greater emphasis has been placed on solar development strategies that maximize the benefits of solar energy generation and multiple ecosystem services, such as the development of agrivoltaics systems that co-locate solar energy production and various forms of conservation and agricultural land uses. The purpose of this paper is to systematically synthesize the potential ecosystem services of agrivoltaics and summarize how these development strategies could address several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Our review will focus on four broad potential ecosystem services of agrivoltaics: (1) energy and economic benefits; (2) agricultural provisioning services of food production and animal husbandry; (3) biodiversity conservation; and (4) regulating ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and water and soil conservation. In particular, we will highlight the state of the science, challenges, and knowledge gaps that represent opportunities for further study to better understand how solar energy deployment can facilitate sustainable development.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The One-hundred-deg 2 DECam Imaging in Narrowbands (ODIN): Survey Design and Science Goals

We describe the survey design and science goals for One-hundred-deg 2 DECam Imaging in Narrowbands (ODIN), a NOIRLab survey using the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) to obtain deep (AB ~ 25.7) narrowband images over an unprecedented area of sky. The three custom-built narrowband filters, N419, N501, and N673, have central wavelengths of 419, 501, and 673 nm and respective FWHM of 7.5, 7.6, and 10.0 nm, corresponding to Lyα at z = 2.4, 3.1, and 4.5 and cosmic times of 2.8, 2.1, and 1.4 Gyr, respectively. When combined with even deeper, public broadband data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam, DECam, and in the future, the Legacy Survey of Space and Time, the ODIN narrowband images will enable the selection of over 100,000 Lyα-emitting (LAE) galaxies at these epochs. ODIN-selected LAEs will identify protoclusters as galaxy overdensities, and the deep narrowband images enable detection of highly extended Lyα blobs (LABs). Primary science goals include measuring the clustering strength and dark matter halo connection of LAEs, LABs, and protoclusters, and their respective relationship to filaments in the cosmic web. The three epochs allow for the redshift evolution of these properties to be determined during the period known as Cosmic Noon, where star formation was at its peak. The narrowband filter wavelengths are designed to enable interloper rejection and further scientific studies by revealing [O II] and [O III] at z = 0.34, Lyα and He II 1640 at z = 3.1, and Lyman continuum plus Lyα at z = 4.5. Ancillary science includes similar studies of the lower-redshift emission-line galaxy samples and investigations of nearby starforming galaxies resolved into numerous [O III] and [S II] emitting regions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluating the Feasibility of Higher Titers and Yields for 2,3-Butanediol Production to Achieve the Biofuel Industry Economic Goal of Under $3.50 GGE

To achieve the economic goal of producing biofuels that can compete with petroleum-based products, we increased titers of 2,3-butanediol (BDO) production. BDO has many advantages over ethanol; including lower toxicity, higher heat of capacity, and is a precursor to various valuable applications. To produce BDO for fuel upgrading, we have genetically modified Zymomonas mobilis (YC-1). Several materials and feed strategies were evaluated to determine the best titer and economic feasibility. Titers from DMR corn stover in a batch process were in the range of 70-80 g/L. The fully hydrolyzed material was easy to work with but suffered from dilution issues. We pushed the concentration of solids to above 25% w/w and were met with numerous challenges. This included an initial sugar concentration above 150 g/L, the high solid concentration altered the oxygen mass transfer rate and affected which products were produced, and the fermentation conditions were not optimal for the enzyme. Despite these challenges, our current results yielded 100 g/L of upgradeable products (70 g/L BDO and 30 g/L acetoin) and 83% fermentation process yield. However, the poor enzymatic hydrolysis yield of 64%, unconverted xylose, and the high acetoin levels warrant further exploration for optimization. Using unhydrolyzed solids as the feed material, we achieved titers in the range of 75-95 g/L BDO. The raw solids feed, though operationally more challenging to work with, proved to be promising as the rate of hydrolysis promoted co-utilization of the sugars. We reached 150 g/L BDO using concentrated DDR liquors under boules and continuous feeding strategies. The clarified liquors showed high titers, high productivity, high yield, and high sugar utilization with little drawback operationally. The target goal of under $3.50 GGE was achieved in several feeding strategies. Scale-up feasibility has also been demonstrated at the 100L scale using both whole slurry and liquor hydrolysates.

BIOMASS FUELS↗

Land use for bioenergy: Synergies and trade-offs between sustainable development goals

Bioenergy aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contribute to meeting global climate change mitigation targets. Nevertheless, several sustainability concerns are associated with bioenergy, especially related to the impacts of using land for dedicated energy crop production. Cultivating energy crops can result in synergies or trade-offs between GHG emission reductions and other sustainability effects depending on context-specific conditions. Using the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework, the main synergies and trade-offs associated with land use for dedicated energy crop production were identified. Furthermore, the context-specific conditions (i.e., biomass feedstock, previous land use, climate, soil type and agricultural management) which affect those synergies and trade-offs were also identified. The most recent literature was reviewed and a pairwise comparison between GHG emission reduction (SDG 13) and other SDGs was carried out. A total of 427 observations were classified as either synergy (170), trade-off (176), or no effect (81). Most synergies with environmentally-related SDGs, such as water quality and biodiversity conservation, were observed when perennial crops were produced on arable land, pasture or marginal land in the ‘cool temperate moist’ climate zone and ‘high activity clay’ soils. Most trade-offs were related to food security and water availability. Previous land use and feedstock type are more impactful in determining synergies and trade-offs than climatic zone and soil type. This study highlights the importance of considering context-specific conditions in evaluating synergies and trade-offs and their relevance for developing appropriate policies and practices to meet worldwide demand for bioenergy in a sustainable manner.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The role of negative emissions in meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal

China’s pledge to reach carbon neutrality before 2060 is an ambitious goal and could provide the world with much-needed leadership on how to limit warming to +1.5°C warming above preindustrial levels by the end of the century. But the pathways that would achieve net zero by 2060 are still unclear, including the role of negative emissions technologies. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to simulate how negative emissions technologies, in general, and direct air capture (DAC) in particular, could contribute to China’s meeting this target. Our results show that negative emissions could play a large role, offsetting on the order of 3 GtCO 2 per year from difficult-to-mitigate sectors, such as freight transportation and heavy industry. This includes up to a 1.6 GtCO 2 per year contribution from DAC, constituting up to 60% of total projected negative emissions in China. But DAC, like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and afforestation, has not yet been demonstrated anywhere approaching the scales required to meaningfully contribute to climate mitigation. Deploying NETs at these scales will have widespread impacts on financial systems and natural resources, such as water, land and energy in China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Restoring Pre-Industrial CO2 Levels While Achieving Sustainable Development Goals

Unless humanity achieves United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 and restores the relatively stable climate of pre-industrial CO2 levels (as early as 2140), species extinctions, starvation, drought/floods, and violence will exacerbate mass migrations. This paper presents conceptual designs and techno-economic analyses to calculate sustainable limits for growing high-protein seafood and macroalgae-for-biofuel. We review the availability of wet solid waste and outline the mass balance of carbon and plant nutrients passing through a hydrothermal liquefaction process. The paper reviews the availability of dry solid waste and dry biomass for bioenergy with CO2 capture and storage (BECCS) while generating Allam Cycle electricity. Sufficient wet-waste biomass supports quickly building hydrothermal liquefaction facilities. Macroalgae-for-biofuel technology can be developed and straightforwardly implemented on SDG-achieving high protein seafood infrastructure. The analyses indicate a potential for (1) 0.5 billion tonnes/yr of seafood; (2) 20 million barrels/day of biofuel from solid waste; (3) more biocrude oil from macroalgae than current fossil oil; and (4) sequestration of 28 to 38 billion tonnes/yr of bio-CO2. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) costs are between 25–33% of those for BECCS with pre-2019 technology or the projected cost of air-capture CDR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The interaction of wholesale electricity market structures under futures with decarbonization policy goals: A complexity conundrum

Competitive wholesale electricity markets can help facilitate energy system decarbonization by incentivizing investments in clean energy technologies that meet evolving system needs. We explore market structure impacts on generator operations and deployment by risk-averse, heterogeneous investor firms using the Electricity Markets and Investment Suite - Agent-based Simulation (EMIS-AS) model. Here we apply clean energy targets of 45%-100% by 2035 considering energy, ancillary services, capacity, and clean energy credit products and pricing and eligibility rules. Results highlight a complexity conundrum, whereby finding the "right" market design to achieve decarbonization goals and avoid unintended consequences can be a highly-nuanced, non-incremental challenge. Carefully designed energy-only markets can achieve the same clean energy targets as capacity market structures but with different revenue and profitability outcomes. Operating reserve demand curve-based scarcity pricing can substitute capacity markets for similar deployment outcomes. Carbon pricing alone is most effective at achieving decarbonization levels at low clean energy targets, and clean energy credit markets and carbon pricing are substitutionary at high clean energy targets. Restricting technology participation in capacity and operating reserve markets can impact deployment and operations, even for nonrestricted technologies. Adding an inertia product with fast frequency response yields insufficient provision at high clean energy targets, but work is needed to understand frequency requirements and capabilities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Research goals for minimizing the cost of CO 2 capture when using steam methane reforming for hydrogen production

This paper presents a techno-economic assessment of adding state-of-the-art solvent-based CO 2 capture technologies to greenfield steam methane reforming (SMR)-based H 2 production plants and quantifies the impacts of improvements in CO 2 capture technology. Current conventional capture technologies are reviewed, and future technologies in intermediate and long-term scenarios are analyzed. The results show that adding significantly more efficient solvent-based capture technologies leads to an equivalent rate of natural gas consumption as that of a conventional SMR plant without capture, despite capturing most of the CO 2 and producing the same amount of H 2 . Overall, improvements in reboiler duty and reductions in capital costs can significantly reduce the cost of H 2 production and cost of capture. Particularly, the reboiler duty of pre-combustion capture and the capital cost of post-combustion capture have the greatest impact. Based on the results, research goals are suggested. Solvent development is recommended—particularly pre-combustion solvents—for reducing the reboiler duties, and process schemes to reduce the capital costs. Costlier but more efficient solvents can be considered. A sensitivity analysis using natural gas price shows that technological improvements can reduce the impacts of high natural gas prices. The degree of economic feasibility of CO 2 capture increases with improvements to the capture technology.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Carbon management technology pathways for reaching a U.S. Economy-Wide net-Zero emissions goal

The Carbon Management Study Group of the 37 th Energy Modeling Forum (EMF 37) designed seven scenarios to explore the role of three potentially key technology suites – point source carbon dioxide capture and storage (PSCCS), direct air capture of carbon dioxide (DACCS), and hydrogen systems (H 2 ) – in shaping the broader technology pathways to reaching net-zero carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in United States by 2050. Each scenario was run by up to 13 models participating in the EMF 37 study. Results show that carbon dioxide removal technologies were consistently a major part of successful pathways to net-zero U.S. CO 2 emissions in 2050. Achieving this net-zero CO 2 goal without any form of carbon dioxide capture and storage was found to be impossible for most models; some models also found it impossible to reach net-zero without DACCS. The marginal cost of achieving net-zero CO 2 emissions in 2050 was between two and 10 times higher without PSCCS and/or DACCS available. The carbon price at which DACCS was deployed as a backstop technology depended upon the assumed cost at which DACCS was available at scale. Carbon prices were between $\$$250 and $\$$500 per ton CO 2 when DACCS deployed as a backstop. The average CO 2 capture rate across all models in 2050 in the central net-zero scenario was 1.3 GtCO 2 /year, which implies a substantial upscaling of capacity to move and store CO 2 . Finally, hydrogen sensitivity scenarios showed that H 2 typically constituted a relatively small share of the overall U.S. energy system; however, H 2 deployed in applications that are considered hard to decarbonize, facilitating transition towards net-zero emissions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Toward evaluating the effect of technology choices on linkages between sustainable development goals

Linkages between the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have sparked research interest because a better understanding of SDG co-benefits may enable faster progress on multiple sustainability fronts. However, SDG linkages are typically analyzed without considering the technologies used to implement a primary SDG, which may have secondary effects on other SDGs. Here, we outline an approach to study this problem by connecting the industries and services required to produce a technology to the United Nations SDG indicator framework, using SDG7 and four energy technologies as an illustrative case. We find that all technologies in our set involve potential co-benefits with SDGs 1, 8–10, 12–13, and 17, and trade-offs with SDGs 6, 8–9, 11–12, and 14–15. Deployment services primarily induce co-benefits; manufacturing has mixed impacts. Our work sheds light on the technology characteristics (e.g., scale, high- or low-tech) that influence linkages while also pointing to SDG-relevant characteristics not captured by UN indicators.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Exploring acute weather resilience: Meeting resilience and renewable goals

We report the United States is affected by an average of almost seven severe weather events a year, often resulting in billions of dollars in physical and economic damages, a subset of which are related to grid outages. There is a need for power and energy system stakeholders to better understand and implement the strategies that help reduce net-economic and societal consequences associated with grid outages by improving the resilience of their systems. In addition, there are incentives to reduce emissions and meet climate goals, several pathways of which include resilient technologies. Including resilience constraints and metrics in energy system planning models may help inform the design of more resilient systems that are also more renewable and sustainable. This paper reviews qualitative definitions of resilience, quantitative approaches to resilience, recent examples of the inclusion of resilience in energy system models with respect to acute climatological threats, and the gaps in fully articulating resilience in current modeling tools. We then outline steps to effectively improve resilience considerations against such threats into energy sector modeling tools. Based on the findings, the authors propose a novel framework for energy system resilience assessment and future areas of research to bridge the current modeling gaps.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗