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Thermospheric density response to auroral heating during geomagnetic disturbances simulation assuming impulse heat input into small latitude band within auroral ovals
Neutral atmospheric composition and density variations during geomagnetic disturbances from OGO-6 satellite quadrupole mass analyzer measurements
Explorer XIV plasma probe observations during October 7, 1962 geomagnetic disturbance
One of the prominent effects of space weather is the formation of rapid geomagnetic field variations on Earth's surface driven by the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. These geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) cause geomagnetically induced currents to run through ground conducting systems. In particular, localized GMDs (LGMDs) can be high amplitude and can have an effect on scale sizes less than 100 km, making them hazardous to power grids and difficult to predict. In this study, we examine the ability of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to reproduce LGMDs in the 7 September 2017 event using both existing and new metrics to quantify the success of the model against observation. We show that the high-resolution SWMF can reproduce LGMDs driven by ionospheric sources, but struggles to reproduce LGMDs driven by substorm effects. We calculate the global maxima of the magnetic fluctuations to show instances when the SWMF captures LGMDs at the correct times but not the correct locations. To remedy these shortcomings we suggest model developments that will directly impact the ability of the SWMF to reproduce LGMDs, most importantly updating the ionospheric conductance calculation from empirical to physics-based.
Simultaneous VLF/ULF observations carried out near Winnipeg, Manitoba show that geomagnetic disturbances control the behavior of harmonics of 60 Hz man-made electric power. The harmonics of 60 Hz detected by the VLF receiver are at multiples of 180 Hz, indicating that they originated from a 3 phase ac power system. Under geomagnetically quiet conditions, only odd harmonics of 70 Hz were detected. In disturbed conditions, both odd and even harmonics were excited. The strength of each harmonic changed concurrently with geomagnetic pulsation (ULF) activity. These findings seem to indicate that a portion of telluric currents shunted into the power line system through the neutrals of the Y-connected transformers give rise to a dc bias to the transformer core materials and that it distorts their hysteresis loops, activating harmonics of 60 Hz power. A mathematical proof is given that a hysteresis loop having a point of symmetry generates odd harmonics only, whereas loops lacking in point-symmetry generally give rise to both odd and even harmonics. A general formula was obtained to calculate the strength of each harmonic based on the shape of the hysteresis loop.
Joule heating and winds in upper atmosphere due to geomagnetic disturbances at 140 km altitude, deriving set of nonlinear partial differential equations
Average geomagnetic storm ranges as function of latitude, noting disturbances caused by ring and ionospheric currents
Geomagnetic disturbances have been shown to disrupt the operation of the bulk electrical system through low-frequency effects in the earth's magnetic field that in turn induce changing electrical fields on the earth's surface. As a result, geomagnetically induced currents flow in transmission lines, introducing the risk for widespread damage to high-voltage transformers and voltage collapse due to induced reactive power loss. In a previous paper, the authors showed how certain modeling assumptions can lead to results that are unacceptable in certain edge case scenarios. In this paper, the authors build on their previous results using modeling uncertainty quantification in order to compare the results from electromagnetic transient program modeling software, ATP, to the positive-sequence calculation software, PowerWorld.
Statistical evidence is presented that strongly suggests the existence of a real relationship between solar geomagnetic disturbance and the subsequent behavior of the 700-mbar contour height difference between 20 and 55 deg N. No acceptable physical mechanisms are as yet available to explain the observations.
This paper develops a probabilistic model to assess the cascading failure of transformers in an electric power grid experiencing geomagnetic disturbances caused by a solar storm. We propose a model in which the probability of failure is a function of the intensity of the solar storm, the physical properties of the transformer, the geographical location of the transformer, and the flow of electrical power. We demonstrate the proposed model using the IEEE 14-bus system and several notional solar storms. The model quickly computes the initial and cascading failure probabilities of the transformers in the system as a first step towards quantifying the risks posed by future solar storms.
This research project will address the most pressing uncertainties in modeling and measuring the electric power grid effects of geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) and the E3 portion of nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP). The primary goal is to help decision-makers in the electric power sector have the knowledge and tools they need to most effectively mitigate GMD effects on our nation’s electric grid, with a secondary focus on EMP. Comprehensive modeling, model assessment through sensitivity analysis, and validation with field measurement data will be the primary tasks undertaken. The goal will be a more widespread adoption of these modeling approaches, namely characterizing the uncertainty associated with these models and how that uncertainty will affect decision-making by industry. This document summarizes industry requirements for better decision-making tools, informed by feedback from an industry advisory board. These requirements help guide planning and execution of the project's remaining tasks.
Observations of the solar corona by Oso 7 have been used in a superposed epoch analysis to study the relationships between classes of coronal features and geomagnetic activity. Both bright coronal regions and regions of less than average brightness were investigated. It was found that for the period from January 1972 through January 1973, a significant enhancement in geomagnetic activity occurred 2-3 days after central meridian passage of large coronal holes that extended to within 5 deg of the solar subearth point when they were on the meridian. Large coronal holes appear to satisfy the requirements for 'M regions' which were hypothesized to be responsible for recurrent geomagnetic disturbances (Bartels, 1934). If solar wind high-speed streams originate preferentially in these regions, their velocity at the base of the corona will be substantially higher than that expected from an axisymmetric solar wind model.
The development of the polar cap current and the relationship of that development to the evolution of auroral electrojets during individual polar geomagnetic disturbances is studied using 1 min average data from US-Canada IMS network stations and standard magnetograms from sites on the polar cap and in the auroral zone. It is found that even when the auroral electrojet activity is weak, polar cap currents producing fields of magnitude approximately 100-200 nT almost always exist. A normal convection current system exists quasi-persistently in the polar cap during extended quiet or weakly disturbed periods of auroral electrojet activity. After one such period, some drastic changes occur in the polar cap currents, which are followed by phases of growth, expansion, and recovery. Polar cap currents cannot all be completely ascribed to a single source mechanism.
This document summarizes the findings of a review of published literature regarding the potential impacts of electromagnetic pulse (EMP) and geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) phenomena on oil and gas pipeline systems. The impacts of telluric currents on pipelines and their associated cathodic protection systems has been well studied. The existing literature describes implications for corrosion protection system design and monitoring to mitigate these impacts. Effects of an EMP on pipelines is not a thoroughly explored subject. Most directly related articles only present theoretical models and approaches rather than specific analyses and in-field testing. Literature on SCADA components and EMP is similarly sparse and the existing articles show a variety of impacts to control system components that range from upset and damage to no effect. The limited research and the range of observed impacts for the research that has been published suggests the need for additional work on GMD and EMP and natural gas SCADA components.
Thermospheric infrared radiance at 4.3 micrometers is susceptible to the influence of solar-geomagnetic disturbances. Ionization processes followed by ion-neutral chemical reactions lead to vibrationally excited NO(+) (i.e., NO(+)(v)) and subsequent 4.3 micrometer emission in the ionospheric E-region. Large enhancements of nighttime 4.3 m emission were observed by the TIMED/SABER instrument during the April 2002 and October-November 2003 solar storms. Global measurements of infrared 4.3 micrometer emission provide an excellent proxy to observe the nighttime E-region response to auroral dosing and to conduct a detailed study of E-region ion-neutral chemistry and energy transfer mechanisms. Furthermore, we find that photoionization processes followed by ion-neutral reactions during quiescent, daytime conditions increase the NO(+) concentration enough to introduce biases in the TIMED/SABER operational processing of kinetic temperature and CO2 data, with the largest effect at summer solstice. In this paper, we discuss solar storm enhancements of 4.3 micrometer emission observed from SABER and assess the impact of NO(+)(v) 4.3 micrometer emission on quiescent, daytime retrievals of Tk/CO2 from the SABER instrument.
The Northern Hemisphere 700 mb contour heights from 20 N to 70 N for the period 1947-1970 are studied in conjunction with 272 key days, where the daily increase of the Ci index equals or exceeds 1.0. The superposed epoch method is applied from 33 days before to 66 days after the key day for a variety of zonal and meridional indices. It is shown that the 700 mb height difference between 20 N and 55 N increases significantly in winter 4 days following geomagnetic disturbance (in summer a less prominent but statistically significant increase is found 2 days earlier). The effect is most clear in winter in the quadrant 90-175 W and corresponds to a 7% increase in the mean geostrophic westerly flow. The statistical significance of the results is established by applying Student's t-test to the difference of each daily mean from the continuum.
Modeling of electrodynamic coupling between the magnetosphere, ionosphere, and upper atmosphere (MIA) depends on accurate specification of ionospheric conductance produced by auroral precipitation of high-energy electrons and ions. The precipitation of energetic electrons into the ionosphere is the result of a three-step process that relies on the proper selections of the simulation tools for the ionospheric conductivity studies, while observation can only measure the results of the three steps. In the region of diffuse aurora, the first step is the initiation of electron precipitation into both magnetically conjugate foot points from the Earth’s magnetosphere via wave-particle interactions. The second step is the multiple atmospheric backscatters (or reflections) of electrons at the two magnetic conjugate points, which produces secondary superthermal electron fluxes. The third step is namely the self-consistent electric and magnetic fields that influence magnetospheric particle transport and re-distribute precipitating electrons and ions through the ionospheric electrodynamics. These steps are especially important for revealing electron precipitation dynamics that carry most of the energy in the aurora, resulting also from ion precipitation production and the formation of ionospheric conductance during geomagnetic disturbances. We demonstrate all above results based on SuperThermal Electron Transport (STET), Superthermal Proton, Electron and Atomic Hydrogen tRansport in the Ionosphere and Thermosphere (SPEAH-RIT), and Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere and Ionospere (CIMI) codes developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.
Orbit-averaged geomagnetic transmission measurements during the large solar energetic particle events of October 1989 are presented using proton data from the NOAA-10 and GOES-7 satellies. The measurements are compared to geomagnetic transmission calculations determined by tracing particle trajectories through the combination of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) model and the 1989 Tsyganenko magnetospheric magnetic field model. The effective 'ring current' parameter in the 1989 Tsyganenko model based on the Dst data. Results are compared to calculations employing only the IGRF and to a parameterization of geomagnetically quiet-time cutoff rigidities derived from Cosmos/intercosmos observations. The 3-hour orbit-averaged results have approximately 15% accuracy during the October 1989 events.