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Hybrid geological modeling: Combining machine learning and multiple-point statistics

Accurately modeling and constructing a geologically realistic subsurface model remains an outstanding problem as the morphology controls the flow behaviors. Particularly, one of the pattern-based methods, namely cross-correlation based simulation, has been proved to be an effective way to reconstruct a realistic model, at both small and large scales. However, conditioning to point data in the large-scale problems is still a crucial issue in these algorithms, since there is always a trade-off between the quality of the realizations and the degree of point data reproduction. Specifically, it is not practical to build a training image (TI) which includes all the possibilities and variabilities. Therefore, finding a pattern that can represent the point data and, at the same time, preserving the connectivities is difficult. This leads to producing highly-connected realizations with a significant mismatch or poor models with a reasonable degree of point data reproduction. To accurately reproduce the densely distributed hard data, pixel-based methods can also produce some unrealistic artifacts around the hard data. In this paper, to overcome this challenge, however, we use pattern-based methods as they often produce more disconnected geobodies when dealing with dense hard data, and proposed a hybrid algorithm using the pattern-based methods and convolutional neural network (CNN). The trained CNN model is utilized to improve the quality of conditioning to point data for the original realizations generated by the pattern-based algorithm. As such, the mismatch locations are identified, and the same regions are used in the training of CNN to mimic the procedure through which a missing region can be filled. To evaluate the performance of the proposed hybrid algorithm, it is tested on cases with different dimensions and different numbers of facies. Then, the newly improved realizations are compared with the initial realizations generated by the pattern-based algorithm. The comparison is also conducted by the flow simulation test. And it indicates that the proposed hybrid algorithm can better reproduce the point data, while the connectivities are better preserved.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

West Flank Coso FORGE: ArcGIS Data for Geologic Model

Archive of ArcGIS data from the West Flank FORGE site located in Coso, California. Archive contains the following eight shapefiles: Polygon of the 3D geologic model (WestFlank3DGeologicModelExtent) Polylines of the traces 3D modeled faults (WestFlank3DModeledFaultTraces) Polylines of the fault traces from Duffield and Bacon, 1980 (WestFlankFaultsfromDuffieldandBacon) Polygon of the West Flank FORGE site (WestFlankFORGEsite) Polylines of the traces of the geologic cross-sections (cross-sections in a separate archive in the GDR) (WestFlankGeologicCrossSections) Polylines of the traces of the seismic reflection profiles through and adjacent to the West Flank site (seismic reflection profiles in a separate archive in the GDR) (WestFlankSiesmicReflectionProfiles) Points of the well collars in and around the West Flank site (WestFlankWellCollars) Polylines of the surface expression of the West Flank well paths (WestFlankWellPaths)

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Incorporating Heterogeneity into 3D Geologic Models for the Alluvial Basin Reference Case

The unsaturated zone alluvium reference case is one of several geologic systems under consideration by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy for hosting repositories for spent nuclear fuel and associated waste (Sevougian et al., 2019). As noted by Mariner et al. (2018), the generic alluvial basin offers positive attributes that merit its consideration as a reference case by the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) campaign. Hundreds of alluvial basins and sub-basins are scattered across the arid western United States (Figure 1-1). Precipitation and infiltration rates are relatively low with high evapotranspiration, resulting in deep regional water tables. Deep regional water tables allow for significant vertical separation between proposed repository depths and groundwater and thus longer transport paths from a hypothetical repository to an aquifer. Accumulations of alluvial sediments within these basins are typically on the order of hundreds of meters, and locally may exceed 1,000 m in thickness, as is the case for the Deming sub-basin in southern New Mexico. In alluvial basins, alluvium creates a thick geologic host medium that serves as the natural barrier system (NBS) in the conceptual model framework of a geologic disposal system and isolates the waste packages from receptors in the biosphere. Further, alluvial basin fill is typically comprised of stacked playa and lacustrine deposits along the basin axis (Perry et al., 2018). Characterized by low permeability, these layers protect the biosphere above the repository and the groundwater resources below the repository by limiting flow and transport of radionuclides.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Advances in 3D Geologic Modeling of Alluvial Basins with a Focus on Facies and Property Modeling

The unsaturated zone alluvium reference case is one of several geologic systems under consideration by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy for hosting repositories for spent nuclear fuel and associated waste (Sevougian et al., 2019). As noted by Mariner et al. (2018), the generic alluvial basin offers positive attributes that merit its consideration as a reference case by the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) campaign. There are hundreds of alluvial basins and sub-basins scattered across the arid western United States (Figure 1-1). Precipitation and infiltration rates are relatively low with high evapotranspiration, resulting in vertical separation between repository and water table and thus longer transport paths to an aquifer. Accumulations of alluvial sediments within these basins are typically on the order of hundreds of meters, and locally may exceed 1,000 m in thickness, as is the case for the Deming sub-basin in southern New Mexico. A thick geologic host medium, which serves as the natural barrier system (NBS) in the conceptual model framework of a geologic disposal system, isolates the waste packages from receptors in the biosphere. Further, alluvial basin fill is typically comprised of stacked playa and lacustrine deposits along the basin axis (Perry et al., 2018). Characterized by low permeability, these layers protect the biosphere above the repository and the groundwater resources below the repository.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Development of 3D Geological Model of Tuscarora Sandstone for Feasibility of Deep Direct-Use Geothermal at West Virginia University Main Campus

The subsurface uncertainty at West Virginia University Main Campus is dominated by the uncertainty in the projections of geofluid flowrate in the target formation, the Tuscarora Sandstone. In this paper, three cores from the heterogeneous reservoir, available through West Virginia Geologic and Economic Survey, are analyzed by performing core analysis using CT scanning and permeability measurements via minipermeameter. Additional geological data are collected through cores, published literature, seismic data, and nearby, existing wells to estimate thickness, fracture network configuration and geothermal gradient to minimize the uncertainty of well deliverability. Using these estimated reservoir properties; a 3D conceptual model for the proposed geothermal site is developed. This dataset includes a GRC conference publication along with the data used to produce results explained in the paper including minipermeability measurement data for Preston -119 core and thin section analysis photos and data for Clay-513 core.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Development of 3-D Geological Model of Tuscarora Sandstone for Feasibility of Deep Direct-Use Geothermal at West Virginia University’s Main Campus

The Morgantown campus of West Virginia University (WVU) is uniquely positioned to host the first geothermal deep direct-use district heating system in the eastern United States. While much of the eastern United States is not blessed with extremely high heat flow and elevated temperatures, the northeastern part of West Virginia is unique in having a basin that is expected to support the achievable flowrate of geofluid through target formations, with sufficient temperatures at depth. These two factors were identified in the 2006 MIT Future of Geothermal Energy Report to be the two most critical factors in minimizing cost of geothermal energy. Our overall project objective is to determine the feasibility of designing a Geothermal District Heating and Cooling (GDHC) system for the West Virginia University campus utilizing Geothermal Deep Direct-Use (DDU) by 1) minimization of the uncertainty and risk associated with developing the geothermal resource for use on campus at WVU and 2) completion of an optimized design for the geothermal system, minimizing the delivered Levelized Cost of Heat (LCOH). Our first goal, to minimize the risk of project development, will be achieved by decreasing the uncertainty in both the subsurface geothermal system as well the surface distribution system. The subsurface uncertainty is dominated by the uncertainty in the projections of geofluid flowrate in the target formation, the Tuscarora Sandstone. In this paper, three cores from the heterogeneous reservoir, available through West Virginia Geologic and Economic Survey, are analyzed by performing core analysis using CT scanning and permeability measurements via minipermeameter. Additional geological data are collected through cores, published literature, seismic data, and nearby, existing wells to estimate thickness, fracture network configuration and geothermal gradient to minimize the uncertainty of well deliverability. Using these estimated reservoir properties; a 3D conceptual model for the proposed geothermal site is developed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Geologic Modeling and Simulation Report for the Aquistore Project

In this update, a regional-scale model extends beyond the 34-square-kilometer PTRC 3-D seismic survey area. A local grid refinement (LGR) system near both the injection and observation wells was introduced for the history-matching and uncertainty analysis. Spinner log survey and pressure test data provided by partners were used and evaluated to adjust the nearwellbore local permeability in order to history-match the field pressure data. As of January 9, 2016, approximately 24,000 tonnes of CO 2 has been injected during a series of relatively short operating periods. However, the injection rate during these short operating periods increased near the end of year 2015 to a level of 300 to 500 tonnes per day, based on the quantity of CO 2 made available from the pipeline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗