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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Historic climate, cosmogenic 10Be, denudation-rate, and geospatial datasets from the Pikes Peak region, Colorado, USA

This data package contains geographic information system (GIS) layers and tabular datasets associated with the study of elevation-dependent denudation rates on Pikes Peak in the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains, Colorado, USA. The package includes GIS layers used to produce the study-area map, including sample locations, sample watershed boundaries, the Pikes Peak batholith, Pleistocene glacier extent, weather station locations, and elevation and hillshade rasters, together with comma-separated value (CSV) tables and matching CSV data dictionaries. These mapped layers provide the geographic framework for interpreting denudation patterns across the Pikes Peak region and for relating sample locations to watershed geometry, bedrock setting, glacial history, and nearby climate stations. The first group of tables reports climate and geospatial context for the study area. These files include station-based temperature and precipitation data used to characterize elevational gradients in mean annual climate and monthly climate seasonality, sample locations, denudation-rate and topographic metrics, fixed frost-cracking model parameters, frost-cracking intensity and precipitation-frequency metrics, and stream-power inversion results. Together, these data provide the basis for evaluating how denudation varies with elevation, climate, and landscape form across sampled catchments on Pikes Peak. The second group of tables reports cosmogenic nuclide and erosion-model results used in the denudation analysis. Included files contain accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) measurements for in situ-produced cosmogenic beryllium-10 (10Be), including sample identifiers, measured 10Be:9Be ratios, analytical uncertainties, carrier mass, quartz mass, blank corrections, blank-group statistics, and calculated 10Be concentrations and uncertainties. Additional tables summarize stream-power-law inversion results for sampled catchments, including optimized model parameters, predicted erosion rates, residual metrics, channel-pixel counts, and convergence status, as well as regression equations and summary statistics used to evaluate relationships among elevation, climate, frost cracking, precipitation forcing, and denudation rate. The package contains GIS files, comma-separated value files (.csv), Microsoft Excel files (.xlsx), CSV data dictionaries, a file-level metadata table, and a readme text file.

10Be cosmogenic nuclides↗
DOE OSTI2026

Denudation, solute export, landscape evolution modeling, and geographic information system data for the East River watershed, Colorado, USA (2020-2024)

This data package contains geographic information system (GIS) layers and tabular datasets associated with the study of lithologic controls on denudation, solute export, carbon-scaling relationships, and transient landscape evolution in the East River watershed near Crested Butte, Colorado, USA. The package includes GIS layers used to produce the Figure 2 map, including drainage, hillshade, lithology, sample locations, and basin polygons, together with comma-separated value (CSV) tables and matching CSV data dictionaries. One group of tables reports sample-level and catchment-level information for river-sediment samples analyzed for in situ-produced cosmogenic beryllium-10 (10Be), including sample names, outlet elevations, geographic coordinates, upstream drainage area, rock-type classes, production-rate scaling scheme, analyzed nuclide, catchment-averaged denudation rates, and associated lower and upper analytical uncertainties. Sample and catchment attributes provide the basis for comparing denudation rates across intrusive, shale, sedimentary, and mixed-lithology settings. A second group of tables reports supporting information for landscape-evolution modeling and the mapped geologic framework of the study area. Included files list parameter values and definitions for the two-phase landscape-evolution simulations, summarize full-domain model erosion fluxes and topographic metrics for different simulation configurations, provide a fixed-area carbon-model scaling table, and summarize mapped geologic units within the East River study domain, including geologic code, formation name, lithologic description, mapped area, and lithologic class grouping. Model outputs and geologic summaries support interpretation of transient landscape behavior and its relation to the mapped distribution of shale, intrusive, sedimentary, and surficial units. A third group of tables reports hydrologic and hydrochemical information used to quantify dissolved export from the watershed. Included files provide site-level values for drainage area, mean annual solute export, standard error of annual export, area-normalized solute yield, and equivalent weathering rate for five East River monitoring sites, along with metadata describing the number, sampling cadence, and date range of discharge records and partial and full total dissolved solids observations used in the solute-yield analyses. The package also contains a supplementary daily ion-load time series with daily mean discharge, discharge observation counts, dissolved concentrations, and daily loads for calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, chloride, sulfate, nitrate, fluoride, dissolved silica, charge-balance bicarbonate, and total dissolved solids. The package contains GIS files, comma-separated value files (.csv), CSV data dictionaries, a file-level metadata table, a package-tree text file, and a readme text file.

10Be↗
DOE OSTI2024

Offshore application of landslide susceptibility mapping using gradient-boosted decision trees: a Gulf of Mexico case study

Abstract Among natural hazards occurring offshore, submarine landslides pose a significant risk to offshore infrastructure installations attached to the seafloor. With the offshore being important for current and future energy production, there is a need to anticipate where future landslide events are likely to occur to support planning and development projects. Using the northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM) as a case study, this paper performs Landslide Susceptibility Mapping (LSM) using a gradient-boosted decision tree (GBDT) model to characterize the spatial patterns of submarine landslide probability over the United States Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) where water depths are greater than 120 m. With known spatial extents of historic submarine landslides and a Geographic Information System (GIS) database of known topographical, geomorphological, geological, and geochemical factors, the resulting model was capable of accurately forecasting potential locations of sediment instability. Results of a permutation modelling approach indicated that LSM accuracy is sensitive to the number of unique training locations with model accuracy becoming more stable as the number of training regions was increased. The influence that each input feature had on predicting landslide susceptibility was evaluated using the SHapely Additive exPlanations (SHAP) feature attribution method. Areas of high and very high susceptibility were associated with steep terrain including salt basins and escarpments. This case study serves as an initial assessment of the machine learning (ML) capabilities for producing accurate submarine landslide susceptibility maps given the current state of available natural hazard-related datasets and conveys both successes and limitations.

Dyer, Alec S. (ORCID:0000000219813904)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Potential Suitability of Subirrigation for Field Crops in the U.S. Midwest

Subirrigation through subsurface tile drains has potential to increase crop yields and improve water quality in tile-drained landscapes, but it has not been widely implemented. Identifying locations with high potential suitability for subirrigation may help the planning and implementation of this practice. In this study, we developed a fuzzy rating system for subirrigation suitability using the Gridded Soil Survey Geographic Database (gSSURGO). Maps of the fuzzy rating system identified locations of high potential suitability for subirrigation and highlighted physiographic regions highly conducive to the practice. We identified 78,500 km2, about 9%, of agricultural land in the Midwest with high potential suitability for subirrigation where onsite investigation may be targeted. The largest areas of high potential suitability were found in Minnesota, Illinois, and Indiana. Results from the fuzzy rating analysis are provided to the public through three channels: a downloadable data repository, map service, and web map tool. Ultimately, this study can facilitate the adoption of subirrigation by highlighting areas where subirrigation may potentially be a viable practice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Los Alamos Enterprise Analysis and Data System (LEADS)

The Los Alamos Enterprise Analysis and Data System (LEADS) is an integrated database system and analysis application used to examine the Laboratory’s assets and equities. The data mapping framework is structured to follow laboratory organizations, programs, geographical technical areas, and other functional groupings, such as facilities and equipment. LEADS application goal is to quantify the size and information related to the current condition of assets and equities. The data and inter-dependent relationships allow for insights and further analyses to be conducted of current program-of-records, the laboratory agenda, and “what-if” scenario studies. The understanding and the outputs of this application will support understanding of the laboratory’s current state, planning, and decision-making processes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methods and system for siting advanced nuclear reactors and evaluating energy policy concerns

There is a growing sociopolitical desire to develop cleaner energy sources in the United States and maintain energy security. Regardless of politics, many coal-fired electric plants have already been shut down and many utilities are vowing to retire their current coal-fired assets within the next two decades. Replacement power assets require consideration of appropriate siting. A geographic information system (GIS)-based multicriteria decision analysis approach is useful to assist utility and energy companies, as well as policymakers, to evaluate potential areas for siting new plants in the contiguous United States. A GIS-based framework is simply a database of location information that allows for mapping, querying, modeling, and analyzing data based on location. The spatial output can be structured to be visual, allowing for easier analysis of location data. The need to site additional power assets, including renewable resources and clean power sources, such as nuclear, led to the development of the Oak Ridge Siting Analysis for power Generation Expansion (OR-SAGE) tool discussed in this paper. The tool takes inputs such as population growth, water availability, environmental indicators, and tectonic and geological hazards to provide an in-depth visual analysis for siting options. Energy companies and other stakeholders can use OR-SAGE to procure feedback quickly and effectively on land suitability based on technology specific inputs. Policymakers can use OR-SAGE to analyze the impacts of future energy technology decisions, while balancing competing resource use. Overall, this paper discusses the recent use of OR-SAGE for these purposes and plans for future development.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A data-driven mobility–energy typology framework for New York State

Exploring multidimensional aspects of differences in technology adoption, travel, and vehicle ownership across settlement types can help inform energy-efficient and affordable mobility system goals. Concurrently, mapping key enablers, barriers, and risks for successfully meeting ambitious goals and targets (e.g. by geography, age, income, education, population density) offer important explanatory power as to context-specific challenges and opportunities. This paper explores how a highly geographically resolved understanding of social, economic, techno-infrastructural, environmental, and governance (SET EG) factors shape variations in technology adoption and associated mobility and energy outcomes in diverse communities of New York State, in terms of electric vehicle adoption rates, alternative commute mode choices, vehicles per household, and vehicle fuel economy. Results indicate the range of two to three times higher adoption rates for electric vehicles by more highly educated, wealthier, “Core Urban” populations relative to the other identified typologies, given the labels “Rural”, “Suburban”, and “Urban” populations. Additionally, commute mode choice is closely linked with population and employment density—more than 89% of Core Urbanites use transit or active modes, compared with just 26% and 18% of Suburban and Rural residents, respectively. Household vehicle ownership varies from approximately 1.9 vehicles per household in Rural areas to only 0.6 in Core Urban settings. Findings on differences among the four settlement types, which go beyond simply rural to urban contexts, suggest an important need to explore how best to manage and anticipate very different types of services that may be supportive in achieving energy-efficient and affordable mobility systems statewide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Toward Improved Regional Hydrological Model Performance Using State-Of-The-Science Data-Informed Soil Parameters

Accurate soil moisture and streamflow data are an aspirational need of many hydrologically relevant fields. Model simulated soil moisture and streamflow hold promise but models require validation prior to application. Calibration methods are commonly used to improve model fidelity but misrepresentation of the true dynamics remains a challenge. In this study, we leverage soil parameter estimates from the Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database and the probability mapping of SSURGO (POLARIS) to improve the representation of hydrologic processes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) over a central California domain. Our results show WRF-Hydro soil moisture exhibits increased correlation coefficients ( r ), reduced biases, and increased Kling-Gupta Efficiencies (KGEs) across seven in situ soil moisture observing stations after updating the model's soil parameters according to POLARIS. Compared to four well-established soil moisture data sets including Soil Moisture Active Passive data and three Phase 2 North American Land Data Assimilation System land surface models, our POLARIS-adjusted WRF-Hydro simulations produce the highest mean KGE (0.69) across the seven stations. More importantly, WRF-Hydro streamflow fidelity also increases, especially in the case where the model domain is set up with SSURGO-informed total soil thickness. The magnitude and timing of peak flow events are better captured, r increases across nine United States Geological Survey stream gages, and the mean KGE across seven of the nine gages increases from 0.12 to 0.66. Our pre-calibration parameter estimate approach, which is transferable to other spatially distributed hydrological models, can substantially improve a model's performance, helping reduce calibration efforts and computational costs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

GIS Visualization of Transportation Energy Consumption

Transportation is witnessing unprecedented transformation, where emerging technologies are disrupting the way we travel. Be it sharing economy, or micro-mobility, the landscape of urban transportation is undergoing a much-needed paradigm shift. In order to capture and model these shifts, researchers need to be agile in their studies of the current and future transportation landscape. The need for agility in turn calls for sophisticated, intuitive, and reliable means to visualize and share transportation data. Travel is inherently spatial, so methods of visualizing transportation information should also be rooted in spatial analysis. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are the premier technological framework to analyze and display spatial data. GIS tools have been used in the past to depict flow of vehicles, and display of network conditions (speed, congestion, etc.). However, in an ever-changing technological landscape, spanning advancements in vehicle as well as information systems, depicting vehicle flows falls short of providing a comprehensive picture of the impact these advancements have on travel related energy consumption. To address this issue, this research effort presents a web-based mapping application to visualize how travel related energy flows across a city. The application is being developed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory researchers to integrate various transportation energy consumption models within a GIS schema. This has the goal of enabling rapid analysis of energy impacts of the dramatically evolving transportation environment. The application is being developed using a Python framework for ArcGIS Online. Using road network data from the City of Columbus, Ohio and traffic data from CATT Laboratory's Regional Integrated Transportation Information System, transportation energy consumption will be modeled at a macro level. The application aims to provide highly accurate data while still maintaining the flexibility needed to adapt the model when new technologies arise. The methodology presented through this effort is expected to provide insights into how light-duty vehicles use energy on a large scale based on the road network they use. The application will also provide data exports to enable sharing and collaboration. " need for agility in turn calls for sophisticated, intuitive, and reliable means to visualize and share transportation data. Travel is inherently spatial, so methods of visualizing transportation information should also be rooted in spatial analysis. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are the premier technological framework to analyze and display spatial data. GIS tools have been used in the past to depict flow of vehicles, and display of network conditions (speed, congestion, etc.). However, in an ever-changing technological landscape, spanning advancements in vehicle as well as information systems, depicting vehicle flows falls short of providing a comprehensive picture of the impact these advancements have on travel related energy consumption. To address this issue, this research effort presents a web-based mapping application to visualize how travel related energy flows across a city. The application is being developed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory researchers to integrate various transportation energy consumption models within a GIS schema. This has the goal of enabling rapid analysis of energy impacts of the dramatically evolving transportation environment. The application is being developed using a Python framework for ArcGIS Online. Using road network data from the City of Columbus, Ohio and traffic data from CATT Laboratory's Regional Integrated Transportation Information System, transportation energy consumption will be modeled at a macro level. The application aims to provide highly accurate data while still maintaining the flexibility needed to adapt the model when new technologies arise. The methodology presented through this effort is expected to provide insights into how light-duty vehicles use energy on a large scale based on the road network they use. The application will also provide data exports to enable sharing and collaboration.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

GIScience in the era of Artificial Intelligence: a research agenda towards Autonomous GIS

The advent of generative AI exemplified by large language models (LLMs) opens new ways to represent and compute geographic information and transcends the process of geographic knowledge production, driving geographic information systems (GIS) towards autonomous GIS. Leveraging LLMs as the decision core, autonomous GIS can independently generate and execute geoprocessing workflows to perform spatial analysis. In this vision paper, we further elaborate on the concept of autonomous GIS and present a conceptual framework that defines its five autonomous goals, five levels of autonomy, five core functions, and three operational scales. We demonstrate how autonomous GIS could perform geospatial data retrieval, spatial analysis, and map making with four proof-of-concept GIS agents. We conclude by identifying critical challenges and future research directions, including fine-tuning and self-growing decision-cores, autonomous modelling, and examining the societal and practical implications of autonomous GIS. By establishing the groundwork for a paradigm shift in GIScience, this paper envisions a future where GIS moves beyond traditional workflows to autonomously reason, derive, innovate, and advance geospatial solutions to pressing global challenges. Meanwhile, we emphasize that as we design and deploy increasingly intelligent geospatial systems, we carry a responsibility to ensure they are developed in socially responsible ways, serve the public good, and support the continued value of human geographic insight in an AI-augmented future.

Autonomous GI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Idaho National Laboratory Integrated Multisite SSHAC Level 3: Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) resides on the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), part of the Snake River Plain (SRP) with a complex origin and geologic history of volcanism. Much of the Quaternary (last 2.58 million years) volcanism within 400 km of INL is genetically associated with a major thermal anomaly referred to as the Yellowstone hotspot, which is currently located more than 180 km northeast of INL. Near INL, local volcanic sources include silicic domes near its southern border, and numerous dike-fed basaltic vents of the ESRP, some of which are near or within the INL boundaries. Quantitative probabilistic assessments of screened-in volcanic hazardous phenomena for nine different facility complexes at the INL are presented for a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 (SL3) study. The comprehensive, integrated multisite SSHAC study consists of a single regional Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment (PVHA) that pertains to all nine INL facility complexes, with site-specific information developed at each respective area of interest (AOI), referred to as the "INL facility AOI" (Figure ES-1). Hazard products are generated for specified INL facility AOIs for use by multiple stakeholders from different agencies in risk-informed decision-making regarding site selection, operations, and design of nuclear facilities at INL, consistent with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory guidance. The study also serves as the basis for future periodic safety assessments required for existing DOE facilities, such as 10-year evaluations of natural-phenomena hazards. Elements of the INL PVHA including initial characterization, screening, quantitative assessments of eruption and hazard potential, and consideration of facility needs are conducted using the three phases of the SSHAC process: evaluation, integration, and documentation. As per regulatory guidance, the SSHAC framework provided the necessary processes and procedures for the PVHA Technical Integration (TI) team, at three workshops, five formal working meetings and many TI team remote meetings, to conduct initial characterization, screen the volcanic hazards, create PVHA model inputs, exercise those models in the PVHA, consider facility-specific volcanic hazard needs, and perform final hazard calculations. The Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP) provided independent oversight and performed process and technical reviews of the PVHA throughout its duration. The study included an extensive New Data Collection and Analyses (NDCA) program developed by the PVHA TI team to reduce uncertainties in hazard-significant elements in the PVHA model. NDCA activities generated 20 reports providing important contributory datasets and results to the project database for characterizing the ESRP. For example, a report compiling the dimensions of ESRP shield volcanoes and lava fields was used to construct volcanic footprints (areas of impact), was compared with data from INL subsurface cores, and was used to validate the results of lava-flow inundation modeling on the contemporary terrain. Another example is the acquisition of aeromagnetic data over INL and its surrounding area, with maps of buried magmatic features (e.g., subsurface volcanoes and swarms of feeder dikes) that informed the PVHA conceptual model of volcanism. The SSHAC evaluation process was used to conduct all elements of the PVHA including initial characterization and screening. Existing data and NDCA activities provided the foundation to develop the tectonomagmatic conceptual model of volcanism for the region of geographical interest in the SRP and Yellowstone hotspot volcanic system, and for considering volcanoes in the western US. Considering Quaternary volcanic sources active during this period, the screening approach identified and evaluated magma compositions, types of eruptive and intrusive phenomena, types of hazardous phenomena, and proximity of sources to INL. The PVHA TI team evaluated 18 types of magmatic sources in terms of 20 potentially hazardous phenomena, resulting in 360 screening decisions. The screening process resulted in 140 screened-in hazardous volcanic phenomena for Quaternary volcanic sources 1) proximal to INL facility complexes in the ESRP (64 basaltic and 54 silicic), 2) regional sources associated with the Yellowstone caldera system and Blackfoot Reservoir volcanic field (7), and 3) more distal sources from thirteen Cascade volcanoes and two volcanoes at Long Valley caldera (CA).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spatially and Temporally Detailed Water and Carbon Footprints of U.S. Electricity Generation and Use

Electricity generation in the United States entails significant water usage and greenhouse gas emissions. However, accurately estimating these impacts is complex due to the intricate nature of the electric grid and the dynamic electricity mix. Existing methods to estimate the environmental consequences of electricity use often generalize across large regions, neglecting spatial and temporal variations in water usage and emissions. Consequently, electric grid dynamics, such as temporal fluctuations in renewable energy resources, are often overlooked in efforts to mitigate environmental impacts. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has initiated the development of resilient energyshed management systems, requiring detailed information on the local electricity mix and its environmental impacts. This study supports DOE's goal by incorporating geographic and temporal variations in the electricity mix of the local electric grid to better understand the environmental impacts of electricity end users. We offer hourly estimates of the U.S. electricity mix, detailing fuel types, water withdrawal intensity, and water consumption intensity for each grid balancing authority through our publicly accessible tool, the Water Integrated Mapping of Power and Carbon Tracker (Water IMPACT). While our primary focus is on evaluating water intensity factors, our dataset and programming scripts for historical and real-time analysis also include evaluations of carbon dioxide (equivalence) intensity within the same modeling framework. This integrated approach offers a comprehensive understanding of the environmental footprint associated with electricity generation and use, enabling informed decision-making to effectively reduce Scope 2 water usage and emissions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Downscaled precipitation and mean air temperature datasets; East-Taylor subbasin; 2008-2019; daily temporal resolution; 400 m spatial resolution

This dataset provides gridded meteorological forcing data (specifically, daily precipitation and daily mean air temperature). The dataset has been generated by downscaling the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) dataset from a spatial resolution of 800 m to 400 m. The time period is 2008-2019, and the mapped area is East Taylor subbasin in Upper Colorado. The data are in the form of NetCDF files, arranged by year. Compared to the PRISM dataset, the dates of the downscaled dataset are shifted backwards by one (e.g., downscaled data for May 25 corresponds to PRISM data for May 26). This temporal shifting makes the meteorological forcing correspond more closely to the prescribed date. The NetCDF format is a standard raster format that can be read using any Geographic Information System (GIS) software; plenty of modules exist in popular scripting languages (such as Python, R and Matlab) that can also be used to read NetCDF files.East_Taylor_Tavg_PRISM400 corresponds to mean air temperature.East_Taylor_Precip_PRISM400.zip corresponds to precipitation.The proprietary PRISM data (800 m resolution) were purchased with funding from the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area supported by U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research under award no. DE-AC02-05CH11231.Dataset update on March 9, 2022:Uploaded new data files that are identical to the earlier files but are now in the NetCDF format, arranged by year. Earlier, the files were in the GeoTiff format, arranged by date.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

AniMACCS User Guide

AniMACCS is a utility code in the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS) software suite that allows for certain MACCS output information to be visually displayed and overlaid onto a geospatial map background. AniMACCS was developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. MACCS is designed to calculate health and economic consequences following a release of radioactive material in the atmosphere. MACCS accomplishes this by modeling the atmospheric dispersion, deposition, and consequences of the release, which depend on several factors including the source term, weather, population, economic, and land-use characteristics of the impacted geographical area. From these inputs, MACCS determines the characteristics of the plume, as well as ground and air concentrations as a function of time and radionuclide.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mapping and Characterizing the Visual Impacts of the Existing US Wind Turbine Fleet

Visual impacts of wind turbines have been a persistent concern for wind energy development in the United States (US) for decades and remain a major source of project delays and cancellations. Assessments of visual impacts are frequently performed at a local scale for individual projects, but a comprehensive understanding of broader geographic patterns in visual impacts across the US is lacking. This paper presents a visual impact assessment of the existing land-based wind turbine fleet of the contiguous United States (CONUS). The assessment combines geographic information systems and 3D simulation methods to account for key factors driving the visual magnitude of impacts from the installed turbines. The results indicate that, despite the deployment of approximately 70,000 turbines and over 144 gigawatts of land-based wind in the CONUS, the visual impacts are very small when measured as a proportion of land area, population, and sensitive visual resources. Nonetheless, visual impacts are not evenly distributed: people experience a concentrated share in a small number of natural settings, primarily including plains, prairies, and deserts. Finally, we find that although increased density of wind development consistently leads to visual impacts across a greater proportion of land, it does not always lead to impacts to a greater share of the population. These findings suggest that visual impacts from wind energy are generally well-mitigated across the CONUS to date but also highlight the need for a deeper understanding of landscape sensitivity and individual perceptions of wind turbines in the most heavily impacted natural settings.

3D simulation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis, Part 2: GIS methodology

Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) in geothermal exploration originates from a systematic methodology developed within the petroleum industry and is based on a geologic, geophysical, and hydrologic framework of identified geothermal systems. We tailored this methodology to study the geothermal resource potential of the Snake River Plain and surrounding region, but it can be adapted to other geothermal resource settings. We adapted the PFA approach to geothermal resource exploration by cataloging the critical elements controlling exploitable hydrothermal systems, establishing risk matrices that evaluate these elements in terms of both probability of success and level of knowledge, and building a code-based ‘processing model’ to process results. A geographic information system was used to compile a range of different data types, which we refer to as elements (e.g., faults, vents, heat flow, etc.), with distinct characteristics and measures of confidence. Discontinuous discrete data (points, lines, or polygons) for each element were transformed into continuous interpretive 2D grid surfaces called evidence layers. Because different data types have varying uncertainties, most evidence layers have an accompanying confidence layer which reflects spatial variations in these uncertainties. Risk layers, as defined here, are the product of evidence and confidence layers, and are the building blocks used to construct Common Risk Segment (CRS) maps for heat, permeability, and seal, using a weighted sum for permeability and heat, but a different approach with seal. CRS maps quantify the variable risk associated with each of these critical components. In a final step, the three CRS maps were combined into a Composite Common Risk Segment (CCRS) map, using a modified weighted sum, for results that reveal favorable areas for geothermal exploration. Additional maps are also presented that do not mix contributions from evidence and confidence (to allow an isolated view of evidence and confidence), as well as maps that calculate favorability using the product of components instead of a weighted sum (to highlight where all components are present). Our approach helped to identify areas of high geothermal favorability in the western and central Snake River Plain during the first phase of study and helped identify more precise local drilling targets during the second phase of work. By identifying favorable areas, this methodology can help to reduce uncertainty in geothermal energy exploration and development.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A new framework to map fine resolution cropping intensity across the globe: Algorithm, validation, and implication

We report accurate estimation of cropping intensity (CI), an indicator of food production, is well aligned with the ongoing efforts to achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs) under diminishing natural resources. The advancement in satellite remote sensing provides unprecedented opportunities for capturing CI information in a spatially continuous manner. However, challenges remain due to the lack of generalizable algorithms for accurately and efficiently mapping global CI with a fine spatial resolution. In this study, we developed a 30-m planetary-scale CI mapping framework with the reconstructed time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from multiple satellite images. Using a binary crop phenophase profile indicating growing and non-growing periods, we estimated pixel-by-pixel CI by enumerating the total number of valid cropping cycles during the study years. Based on the Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform, we implemented the framework to estimate CI during 2016–2018 in eight geographic regions across continents that are representative of global cropping system diversity. Comparison with PhenoCam network data in four cropland sites suggests that the proposed framework is capable of capturing the seasonal dynamics of cropping practices. Spatially, overall accuracies based on validation samples range from 80.0% to 98.9% across different regions worldwide. Regarding the CI classes, single cropping systems are associated with more robust and less biased estimations than multiple cropping systems. Finally, our CI estimates reveal high agreement with two widely used land surface phenology products, including Vegetation Index and Phenology V004 (VIP4) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Land Cover Dynamics (MCD12Q2), meanwhile providing much more spatial details. Due to its robustness, the developed CI framework can be potentially generalized to produce global fine resolution CI products for food security and other applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mapping brucellosis risk in Kenya and its implications for control strategies in sub-Saharan Africa

In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), effective brucellosis control is limited, in part, by the lack of long-term commitments by governments to control the disease and the absence of reliable national human and livestock population-based data to inform policies. Therefore, we conducted a study to establish the national prevalence and develop a risk map for Brucella spp. in cattle to contribute to plans to eliminate the disease in Kenya by the year 2040. We randomly generated 268 geolocations and distributed them across Kenya, proportionate to the area of each of the five agroecological zones and the associated cattle population. Cattle herds closest to each selected geolocation were identified for sampling. Up to 25 cattle were sampled per geolocation and a semi-structured questionnaire was administered to their owners. We tested 6,593 cattle samples for Brucella immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies using an Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). We assessed potential risk factors and performed spatial analyses and prevalence mapping using approximate Bayesian inference implemented via the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method. The national Brucella spp. prevalence was 6.8% (95% CI: 6.2–7.4%). Exposure levels varied significantly between agro-ecological zones, with a high of 8.5% in the very arid zone with the lowest agricultural potential relative to a low of 0.0% in the agro-alpine zone with the highest agricultural potential. Additionally, seroprevalence increased with herd size, and the odds of seropositivity were significantly higher for females and adult animals than for males or calves. Similarly, animals with a history of abortion, or with multiple reproductive syndromes had higher seropositivity than those without. At the herd level, the risk of Brucella spp. transmission was higher in larger herds, and herds with a history of reproductive problems such as abortion, giving birth to weak calves, or having swollen testes. Geographic localities with high Brucella seroprevalence occurred in northern, eastern, and southern regions of Kenya all primarily characterized by semi-arid or arid agro-ecological zones dominated by livestock pastoralism interspersed with vast areas with mixed livestock-wildlife systems. The large spatial extent of our survey provides compelling evidence for the widespread geographical distribution of brucellosis risk across Kenya in a manner easily understandable for policymakers. Our findings can provide a basis for risk-stratified pilot studies aiming to investigate the cost-effectiveness and efficacy of singular and combined preventive intervention strategies that seek to inform Kenya’s Brucellosis Control Policy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗