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NASA NTRS1995

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Paper 51: Workplace communications skills and the value of communications and information-use skills instruction: Engineering students' perspectives

Studies indicate that communications and information-related activities take up a substantial portion of an engineer's work week; therefore, effective communications and information use skills are one of the key engineering competencies that recent graduates of engineering programs are expected to possess. Feedback from industry rates communications and information use skills of entry-level engineers low. Missing from current discussions of communications and information use skills and competencies for engineering students is a clear explanation from the professional engineering community about what constitutes 'acceptable and desirable communications and information norms' within that community. To gather adequate and generalizable data about communications and information skills instruction and to provide a student perspective on the communications skills of engineers, we undertook a national study of aerospace engineering students in March 1993. The study included questions about the importance of certain communications and information skills to professional success, the instruction students had received in these skills, and perceived helpfulness of the instruction. Selected results from the study study are reported in this paper.

Pinelli, Thomas E.↗
NASA NTRS1995

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Paper 53: From student to entry-level professional: Examining the technical communications practices of early career-stage US aerospace engineers and scientists

Studies indicate that communications and information-related activities take up a substantial portion of an engineer's work week; therefore, effective communications and information-use skills are one of the key engineering competencies that early career-stage aerospace engineers and scientists must possess to be successful. Feedback from industry rates communications and information-use skills high in terms of their importance to engineering practice; however, this same feedback rates the communications and information-use skills of early career-stage engineers low. To gather adequate and generalizable data about the communications and information-related activities of entry-level aerospace engineers and scientists, we surveyed 264 members of the AIAA who have no more than 1-5 years of aerospace engineering work experience. To learn more about the concomitant communications norms, we compared the results of this study with data (1,673 responses) we collected from student members of the AIAA and with data (341 responses) we collected from a study of aerospace engineering professionals. In this paper, we report selected results from these studies that focused on the communications practices and information-related activities of early career-stage U.S. aerospace engineers and scientists in the workplace.

Pinelli, Thomas E.↗
NASA NTRS1997

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Paper 61: The Technical Communications Practices of ESL Aerospace Engineering Students in the United States: Results of a National Survey

When engineering students graduate and enter the world of work, they make the transition from an academic to a professional community of knowledge. The importance of oral and written communication to the professional success and advancement of engineers is well documented. For example, studies such as those conducted by Mailloux (1989) indicate that communicating data, information, and knowledge takes up as much as 80% of an engineer's time. However, these same studies also indicate that many engineering graduates cannot (a) write technical reports that effectively inform and influence decisionmaking, (b) present their ideas persuasively, and (c) communicate with their peers. If these statements are true, how is learning to communicate effectively in their professional knowledge community different for engineering students educated in the United States but who come from other cultures-cultures in which English is not the primary language of communication? Answering this question requires adequate and generalizable data about these students' communications abilities, skills, and competencies. To contribute to the answer, we undertook a national (mail) survey of 1,727 student members of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA). The focus of our analysis and this paper is a comparison of the responses of 297 student members for whom English is a second language with the responses of 1,430 native English speaking students to queries regarding career choice, bilingualism and language fluency, communication skills, collaborative writing, computer use, and the use of electronic (computer) networks.

Webb, John R.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Reveal, A General Reverse Engineering Algorithm for Inference of Genetic Network Architectures

Given the immanent gene expression mapping covering whole genomes during development, health and disease, we seek computational methods to maximize functional inference from such large data sets. Is it possible, in principle, to completely infer a complex regulatory network architecture from input/output patterns of its variables? We investigated this possibility using binary models of genetic networks. Trajectories, or state transition tables of Boolean nets, resemble time series of gene expression. By systematically analyzing the mutual information between input states and output states, one is able to infer the sets of input elements controlling each element or gene in the network. This process is unequivocal and exact for complete state transition tables. We implemented this REVerse Engineering ALgorithm (REVEAL) in a C program, and found the problem to be tractable within the conditions tested so far. For n = 50 (elements) and k = 3 (inputs per element), the analysis of incomplete state transition tables (100 state transition pairs out of a possible 10(exp 15)) reliably produced the original rule and wiring sets. While this study is limited to synchronous Boolean networks, the algorithm is generalizable to include multi-state models, essentially allowing direct application to realistic biological data sets. The ability to adequately solve the inverse problem may enable in-depth analysis of complex dynamic systems in biology and other fields.

Liang, Shoudan↗
NASA NTRS1994

Models of Human Information Requirements: "When Reasonable Aiding Systems Disagree"

Aircraft flight management and Air Traffic Control (ATC) automation are under development to maximize the economy of flight and to increase the capacity of the terminal area airspace while maintaining levels of flight safety equal to or better than current system performance. These goals are being realized by the introduction of flight management automation aiding and operations support systems on the flight deck and by new developments of ATC aiding systems that seek to optimize scheduling of aircraft while potentially reducing required separation and accounting for weather and wake vortex turbulence. Aiding systems on both the flight deck and the ground operate through algorithmic functions on models of the aircraft and of the airspace. These models may differ from each other as a result of variations in their models of the immediate environment. The resultant flight operations or ATC commands may differ in their response requirements (e.g. different preferred descent speeds or descent initiation points). The human operators in the system must then interact with the automation to reconcile differences and resolve conflicts. We have developed a model of human performance including cognitive functions (decision-making, rule-based reasoning, procedural interruption recovery and forgetting) that supports analysis of the information requirements for resolution of flight aiding and ATC conflicts. The model represents multiple individuals in the flight crew and in ATC. The model is supported in simulation on a Silicon Graphics' workstation using Allegro Lisp. Design guidelines for aviation automation aiding systems have been developed using the model's specification of information and team procedural requirements. Empirical data on flight deck operations from full-mission flight simulation are provided to support the model's predictions. The paper describes the model, its development and implementation, the simulation test of the model predictions, and the empirical validation process. The model and its supporting data provide a generalizable tool that is being expanded to include air/ground compatibility and ATC crew interactions in air traffic management.

Corker, Kevin↗
NASA NTRS1995

Traffic Management Advisor: Iterative Field Development and Assessment at Multiple Sites

Previous studies have demonstrated the necessity of involving users in the development of automation aids, especially for complex domains such as air traffic control (ATC). Traditional development only demanded a single field test to validate a completed system, but a more iterative combination of development and assessment ensures that the technology meets the requirements of its application domain. Exposure across an adequate spectrum of field users is also required during development, and the use of multiple development sites provides an opportunity to consider individual facility cultures as they relate to implementation strategies. The development of the Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS) Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) at the Denver and Dallas ATC facilities demonstrates successful iterative development and assessment at multiple field sites. The use of field development changes the nature of assessment. As development progresses, periodic assessments are required to validate that system development is progressing along an appropriate track. In the development of the TMA, assessments were performed based on software in the field, and input from traffic managers was analyzed and incorporated into subsequent releases of the TMA, to be reassessed in the field. This has led to a tool with operational suitability and broad user acceptance. Assessment at multiple sites provides a more generalizable perspective that allows the production of a system that is both generic enough to be used at different sites and tailored enough to be of use at any site. In addition to providing a better understanding of specific facility requirements, the use of multiple assessment sites in the development of TMA has provided an opportunity to consider individual facility operations, procedures and cultures as they relate to development and implementation strategies.

Sanford, Beverly D.↗
NASA NTRS1996

From Aeronautics to Space: Lessons in Human Automation

Civilian air flight continues on a growth curve, as more and more people utilize air travel to meet business and personal travel needs: This consumer-driven demand has resulted in the adoption of new methods to increase air system capacity and to make the air transportation system increasingly more efficient. As a consequence, civilian aviation, as an industry, has assumed a leading role in the use of automated systems, and, by implication, in the understanding of how human openers interact with these systems. Aeronautical automation systems serve a variety of roles. These include controlling aircraft and aiding, advising and monitoring numerous functions in the aircraft/airspace system. Experiences in the use of human/automation systems gathered from aviation are, in many cases, generalizable to other industries having similar requirements for human and non-human intelligent system interaction. However, the human/automation lessons learned from aviation have special relevance to the space application, where many of the same operational demands prevail. The application of aeronautical lessons of human-automated interaction to spaceflight is the subject of this paper. The discussion will address: the progress that has been made through aeronautically-based research and experience in understanding human/automation interaction, ways that this understanding can be applied to the needs of space, and the limits of our present understanding of human/automations systems. Suggestions will be offered related to human-automation research generally, and to the particular needs of the space endeavor.

Connors, Mary M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Does the identification of simple features require serial processing?

Several recent studies have shown performance decrements with increasing display size when background texture elements are present in a same-different feature discrimination task--a result that challenges the traditional notion that the identities of simple visual features are processed in parallel, preattentively. Four experiments are reported that explore the implications of these results. Experiment 1 replicates the recent studies but limits the generalizability of the results to small target numbers. Experiments 2 and 3 show that the observed performance decrements are not due to a serial or even limited-capacity, parallel process. Experiment 4 suggests that decision factors idiosyncratic to the use of texture elements in a same-different task are responsible for the effect. It is concluded that the identification of simple visual features proceeds in parallel, with unlimited capacity (i.e., preattentively).

Pattern Recognition, Visual↗
NASA NTRS2005

DEVELOPMENT OF AN INFLIGHT COUNTERMEASURE TO MITIGATE POSTFLIGHT GAIT DYSFUNCTION

Following spaceflight crewmembers experience gait and postural instabilities due to inflight adaptive alterations in sensorimotor function. These changes can pose a risk to crew safety if nominal or emergency vehicle egress is required immediately following long-duration spaceflight. At present, no operational countermeasure is available to mitigate postflight locomotor disturbances. Therefore, the goal of this study is to develop an inflight training regimen that facilitates the recovery of locomotor function after long-duration spaceflight. The countermeasure we are developing is based on the concept of variable practice. During this type of training the subject gains experience producing the appropriate adaptive motor behavior under a variety of sensory conditions and response constraints. This countermeasure is built around current ISS treadmill exercise activities. Crewmembers will conduct their nominal inflight treadmill exercise while being exposed to variations in visual flow patterns. These variations will challenge the postural and locomotor systems repeatedly, thereby promoting adaptive reorganization in locomotor behavior. As a result of this training a subject learns to solve a class of motor problems, rather than a specific motor solution to one problem, Le., the subject learns response generalizability or the ability to "learn to learn" under a variety of environmental constraints. We anticipate that this training will accelerate recovery of postural and locomotor function during readaptation to gravitational environments following spaceflight facilitating neural adaptation to unit (Earth) and partial (Mars) gravity after long-duration spaceflight. The study calls for one group of subjects to perform the inflight treadmill training regimen while a control group of subjects performs only the nominal exercise procedures. Locomotor function in both groups is assessed before and after spaceflight using two tests of gait function: The Integrated Treadmill Locomotion Test (ITLT) and the Functional Mobility Test (FMT). The ITLT characterizes alterations in the integrated function of multiple sensorimotor subsystems responsible for the control of locomotion. This test calls for subjects to walk on a motorized treadmill while we assess changes in dynamic postural stability, head-trunk coordination, short-latency head stabilization responses, dynamic visual acuity, lower limb coordination strategies and gait cycle timing. To make these assessments we measure the following parameters while subjects walk on the treadmill: 1) full body 3-dimensional kinematics using a motion capture system (Motion Analysis Corp., Santa Rosa, CA); 2) the shock-wave transmitted from heel-strike to the head using triaxial accelerometers placed on the tibia and head (Entran, Fairfield, NJ); 3) vertical forces using an instrumented treadmill (Kistler Instrument Corp., Amherst, NY); 4) Dynamic visual acuity using Landolt Cs presented on a laptop computer located 4m from the eyes and 5) Gait cycle timing using foot-switches (Motion Lab Systems, Inc., Baton Rouge, LA) attached to the plantar surface of each shoe at the heel and toe. The FMT evaluates a subject's ability to perform challenging locomotor maneuvers similar to those encountered during an egress from a space vehicle. Subjects step over and duck under obstacles along with negotiating a series of pylons set up on a base of 10 cm thick medium density foam. The dependent measures for the FMT are time to complete the course and the number of obstacles touched. To date, we have collected pre and postflight locomotion data from Expeditions 5-9 who will serve as part of the control group for this study. Preliminary results comparing the recovery rates in gait control sub-systems obtained from the ITLT and FMT performance showed two recovery patterns: 1) a concordant recovery trend between gait control parameters and FMT performance indicating a restitution pattern of recovery and 2) gait controecovery that lagged recovery in FMT performance suggesting that improvement in locomotor function was attained through a pattern of substitution. These data suggest that recovery of postflight locomotor function may occur through adaptive mechanisms that lead to either restitution or substitution of function. Understanding the modes of postflight readaptation has implications for countermeasure development and testing and in astronaut postflight rehabilitation.

Bloomberg, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Development of an Inflight Countermeasure to Mitigate Postflight Gait Dysfunction

Following spaceflight crewmembers experience gait and postural instabilities due to inflight adaptive alterations in sensorimotor function. These changes can pose a risk to crew safety if nominal or emergency vehicle egress is required immediately following long-duration spaceflight. At present, no operational countermeasure is available to mitigate postflight locomotor disturbances. Therefore, the goal of this study is to develop an inflight training regimen that facilitates the recovery of locomotor function after long-duration spaceflight. The countermeasure we are developing is based on the concept of variable practice. During this type of training the subject gains experience producing the appropriate adaptive motor behavior under a variety of sensory conditions and response constraints. This countermeasure is built around current ISS treadmill exercise activities. Crewmembers will conduct their nominal inflight treadmill exercise while being exposed to variations in visual flow patterns. These variations will challenge the postural and locomotor systems repeatedly, thereby promoting adaptive reorganization in locomotor behavior. As a result of this training a subject learns to solve a class of motor problems, rather than a specific motor solution to one problem, Le., the subject learns response generalizability or the ability to "learn to learn" under a variety of environmental constraints. We anticipate that this training will accelerate recovery of postural and locomotor function during readaptation to gravitational environments following spaceflight facilitating neural adaptation to unit (Earth) and partial (Mars) gravity after long-duration spaceflight. The study calls for one group of subjects to perform the inflight treadmill training regimen while a control group of subjects performs only the nominal exercise procedures. Locomotor function in both groups is assessed before and after spaceflight using two tests of gait function: The Integrated Treadmill Locomotion Test (ITLT) and the Functional Mobility Test (FMT). The ITLT characterizes alterations in the integrated function of multiple sensorimotor subsystems responsible for the control of locomotion. This test calls for subjects to walk on a motorized treadmill while we assess changes in dynamic postural stability, head-trunk coordination, short-latency head stabilization responses, dynamic visual acuity, lower limb coordination strategies and gait cycle timing. To make these assessments we measure the following parameters while subjects walk on the treadmill: 1) full body 3-dimensional kinematics using a motion capture system (Motion Analysis Corp., Santa Rosa, CA); 2) the shock-wave transmitted from heel-strike to the head using triaxial accelerometers placed on the tibia and head (Entran, Fairfield, NJ); 3) vertical forces using an instumented treadmill (Kistler Instrument Corp., Amherst, NY); 4) Dynamic visual acuity using Landolt Cs presented on a laptop computer located 4m from the eyes and 5) Gait cycle timing using foot-switches (Motion Lab Systems, Inc., Baton Rouge, LA) attached to the plantar surface of each shoe at the heel and toe. The FMT evaluates s. subject's ability to perform challenging locomotor maneuvers similar to those encountered during an egress from a space vehicle. Subjects step over and duck under obstacles along with negotiating a series of pylons set up on a base of 10 cm thick medium density foam. The dependent measures for the FMT are time to complete the course and the number of obstacles touched. To date, we have collected pre and postflight locomotion data from Expeditions 5-9 who will serve as part of the control group for this study. Preliminary results comparing the recovery rates in gait control sub-systems obtained from the ITLT and FMT performance showed two recovery patterns: 1) a concordant recovery trend between gait control parameters and FMT performance indicating a restitution pattern of recovery and 2) gait controecovery that lagged recovery in FMT performance suggesting that improvement in locomotor function was attained through a pattern of substitution. These data suggest that recovery of postflight locomotor function may occur through adaptive mechanisms that lead to either restitution or substitution of function. Understanding the modes of postflight readaptation has implications for countermeasure development and testing and in astronaut postflight rehabilitation.

Bloomberg, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Reliability of Strength Testing using the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device and Free Weights

The Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) was developed for use on the International Space Station as a countermeasure against muscle atrophy and decreased strength. This investigation examined the reliability of one-repetition maximum (1RM) strength testing using ARED and traditional free weight (FW) exercise. Methods: Six males (180.8 +/- 4.3 cm, 83.6 +/- 6.4 kg, 36 +/- 8 y, mean +/- SD) who had not engaged in resistive exercise for at least six months volunteered to participate in this project. Subjects completed four 1RM testing sessions each for FW and ARED (eight total sessions) using a balanced, randomized, crossover design. All testing using one device was completed before progressing to the other. During each session, 1RM was measured for the squat, heel raise, and deadlift exercises. Generalizability (G) and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were calculated for each exercise on each device and were used to predict the number of sessions needed to obtain a reliable 1RM measurement (G . 0.90). Interclass reliability coefficients and Pearson's correlation coefficients (R) also were calculated for the highest 1RM value (1RM9sub peak)) obtained for each exercise on each device to quantify 1RM relationships between devices.

English, Kirk L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Human Factors Research for Space Exploration: Measurement, Modeling, and Mitigation

As part of NASA's Human Research Program, the Space Human Factors Engineering Project serves as the bridge between Human Factors research and Human Spaceflight applications. Our goal is to be responsive to the operational community while addressing issues at a sufficient level of abstraction to ensure that our tools and solutions generalize beyond the point design. In this panel, representatives from four of our research domains will discuss the challenges they face in solving current problems while also enabling future capabilities. Historically, engineering-dominated organizations have tended to view good Human Factors (HF) as a desire rather than a requirement in system design and development. Our field has made significant gains in the past decade, however; the Department of Defense, for example, now recognizes Human-System Integration (HSI), of which HF is a component, as an integral part of their divisions hardware acquisition processes. And our own agency was far more accepting of HF/HSI requirements during the most recent vehicle systems definition than in any prior cycle. Nonetheless, HF subject matter experts at NASA often find themselves in catch up mode... coping with legacy systems (hardware and software) and procedures that were designed with little regard for the human element, and too often with an attitude of we can deal with any operator issues during training. Our challenge, then, is to segregate the true knowledge gaps in Space Human Factors from the prior failures to incorporate best (or even good) HF design principles. Further, we strive to extract the overarching core HF issues from the point-design-specific concerns that capture the operators (and managers) attention. Generally, our approach embraces a 3M approach to Human Factors: Measurement, Modeling, and Mitigation. Our first step is to measure human performance, to move from subjective anecdotes to objective, quantified data. Next we model the phenomenon, using appropriate methods in our field, modifying them to suit the unique aspects of the space environment. Finally, we develop technologies, tools, and procedures to mitigate the decrements in human performance and capabilities that occur in space environments. When successful, we decrease risks to crew safety and to mission success. When extremely successful (or lucky), we devise generalizable solutions that advance the state of our practice. Our panel is composed of researchers from diverse domains of our project... from different boxes, if you will, of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS).

Kaiser, Mary K.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Adaptive Effects on Locomotion Performance Following Exposure to a Rotating Virtual Environment

During long-duration spaceflight, astronauts experience alterations in vestibular and somatosensory cues that result in adaptive disturbances in balance and coordination upon return to Earth. These changes can pose a risk to crew safety and to mission objectives if nominal or emergency vehicle egress is required immediately following long-duration spaceflight. At present, no operational countermeasure is available to mitigate the adaptive sensorimotor component underlying the locomotor disturbances that occur after spaceflight. Therefore, the goal of this study is to develop an inflight training regimen that facilitates recovery of locomotor function after long-duration spaceflight. The countermeasure we are proposing is based on the concept of adaptive generalization. During this type of training the subject gains experience producing the appropriate adaptive motor behavior under a variety of sensory conditions and response constraints. As a result of this training a subject learns to solve a class of motor problems, rather than a specific motor solution to one problem, i.e., the subject learns response generalizability or the ability to "learn to learn." under a variety of environmental constraints. We are developing an inflight countermeasure built around treadmill exercise activities. By manipulating the sensory conditions of exercise by varying visual flow patterns, body load and speed we will systematically and repeatedly promote adaptive change in locomotor behavior. It has been shown that variable practice training increases adaptability to novel visuo-motor situations. While walking over ground in a stereoscopic virtual environment that oscillated in roll, subjects have shown compensatory torso rotation in the direction of scene rotation that resulted in positional variation away from a desired linear path. Thus, postural sway and locomotor stability in 1-g can be modulated by visual flow patterns and used during inflight treadmill training to promote adaptive generalization. The purpose of this study was to determine if adaptive modification in locomotor performance could be achieved by viewing simulated self-motion in a passive-immersive virtual ' environment over a prolonged period during treadmill locomotion.

Mulavara, A. P.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Virtual Reality as a Medium for Sensorimotor Adaptation Training and Spaceflight Countermeasures

With the upcoming shift to extra‐long duration missions (1 year) aboard the ISS, sensorimotor adaptations during transitory periods in‐and‐out of microgravity are more important to understand and prepare for. Advances in virtual reality technology enables everyday adoption of these tools for entertainment and use in training. Experiencing virtual environments (VE) allows for the manipulation of visual flow to elicit automatic motor behavior and produce sensorimotor adaptation (SA). Recently, the ability to train individuals using repeatable and varied exposures to SA challenges has shown success by improving performance during exposure to a novel environment (Batson 2011). This capacity to 'learn to learn' is referred to as sensorimotor adaptive generalizability and, through the use of treadmill training, represents an untapped potential for individualized countermeasures. The goal of this study is to determine the feasibility of present head mounted displays (HMDs) to produce compelling visual flow information and the expected adaptations for use in future SA treadmill‐based countermeasures. Participants experience infinite hallways providing congruent (baseline) or incongruent visual information (half or double speed) via HMD while walking on an instrumented treadmill at 1.1m/s. As gait performance approaches baseline levels, an adaptation time constant is derived to establish individual time‐to‐adapt (TTA). It is hypothesized that decreasing the TTA through SA treadmill training will facilitate sensorimotor adaptation during gravitational transitions. In this way, HMD technology represents a novel platform for SA training using off‐the‐shelf consumer products for greater training flexibility in astronaut and terrestrial applications alike.

Madansingh, S.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Detection of Operator Performance Breakdown as an Automation Triggering Mechanism

Performance breakdown (PB) has been anecdotally described as a state where the human operator "loses control of context" and "cannot maintain required task performance." Preventing such a decline in performance is critical to assure the safety and reliability of human-integrated systems, and therefore PB could be useful as a point at which automation can be applied to support human performance. However, PB has never been scientifically defined or empirically demonstrated. Moreover, there is no validated objective way of detecting such a state or the transition to that state. The purpose of this work is: 1) to empirically demonstrate a PB state, and 2) to develop an objective way of detecting such a state. This paper defines PB and proposes an objective method for its detection. A human-in-the-loop study was conducted: 1) to demonstrate PB by increasing workload until the subject reported being in a state of PB, and 2) to identify possible parameters of a detection method for objectively identifying the subjectively-reported PB point, and 3) to determine if the parameters are idiosyncratic to an individual/context or are more generally applicable. In the experiment, fifteen participants were asked to manage three concurrent tasks (one primary and two secondary) for 18 minutes. The difficulty of the primary task was manipulated over time to induce PB while the difficulty of the secondary tasks remained static. The participants' task performance data was collected. Three hypotheses were constructed: 1) increasing workload will induce subjectively-identified PB, 2) there exists criteria that identifies the threshold parameters that best matches the subjectively-identified PB point, and 3) the criteria for choosing the threshold parameters is consistent across individuals. The results show that increasing workload can induce subjectively-identified PB, although it might not be generalizable-only 12 out of 15 participants declared PB. The PB detection method based on signal detection analysis was applied to the performance data and the results showed that PB can be identified using the method, particularly when the values of the parameters for the detection method were calibrated individually.

multi-task environment↗
NASA NTRS2011

Climate Change Impact Uncertainties for Maize in Panama: Farm Information, Climate Projections, and Yield Sensitivities

We present results from a pilot project to characterize and bound multi-disciplinary uncertainties around the assessment of maize (Zea mays) production impacts using the CERES-Maize crop model in a climate-sensitive region with a variety of farming systems (Panama). Segunda coa (autumn) maize yield in Panama currently suffers occasionally from high water stress at the end of the growing season, however under future climate conditions warmer temperatures accelerate crop maturation and elevated CO (sub 2) concentrations improve water retention. This combination reduces end-of-season water stresses and eventually leads to small mean yield gains according to median projections, although accelerated maturation reduces yields in seasons with low water stresses. Calibrations of cultivar traits, soil profile, and fertilizer amounts are most important for representing baseline yields, however sensitivity to all management factors is reduced in an assessment of future yield changes (most dramatically for fertilizers), suggesting that yield changes may be more generalizable than absolute yields. Uncertainty around General Circulation Model (GCM)s' projected changes in rainfall gain in importance throughout the century, with yield changes strongly correlated with growing season rainfall totals. Climate changes are expected to be obscured by the large inter-annual variations in Panamanian climate that will continue to be the dominant influence on seasonal maize yield into the coming decades. The relatively high (A2) and low (B1) emissions scenarios show little difference in their impact on future maize yields until the end of the century. Uncertainties related to the sensitivity of CERES-Maize to carbon dioxide concentrations have a substantial influence on projected changes, and remain a significant obstacle to climate change impacts assessment. Finally, an investigation into the potential of simple statistical yield emulators based upon key climate variables characterizes the important uncertainties behind the selection of climate change metrics and their performance against more complex process-based crop model simulations, revealing a danger in relying only on long-term mean quantities for crop impact assessment.

Maize↗
NASA NTRS2016

Characterization of Evidence for Human System Risk Assessment

Understanding the kinds of evidence available and using the best evidence to answer a question is critical to evidenced-based decision-making, and it requires synthesis of evidence from a variety of sources. Categorization of human system risks in spaceflight, in particular, focuses on how well the integration and interpretation of all available evidence informs the risk statement that describes the relationship between spaceflight hazards and an outcome of interest. A mature understanding and categorization of these risks requires: 1) sufficient characterization of risk, 2) sufficient knowledge to determine an acceptable level of risk (i.e., a standard), 3) development of mitigations to meet the acceptable level of risk, and 4) identification of factors affecting generalizability of the evidence to different design reference missions. In the medical research community, evidence is often ranked by increasing confidence in findings gleaned from observational and experimental research (e.g., "levels of evidence"). However, an approach based solely on aspects of experimental design is problematic in assessing human system risks for spaceflight. For spaceflight, the unique challenges and opportunities include: (1) The independent variables in most evidence are the hazards of spaceflight, such as space radiation or low gravity, which cannot be entirely duplicated in terrestrial (Earth-based) analogs, (2) Evidence is drawn from multiple sources including medical and mission operations, Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH), spaceflight research (LSDA), and relevant environmental & terrestrial databases, (3) Risk metrics based primarily on LSAH data are typically derived from available prevalence or incidence data, which may limit rigorous interpretation, (4) The timeframe for obtaining adequate spaceflight sample size (n) is very long, given the small population, (5) Randomized controlled trials are unattainable in spaceflight, (6) Collection of personal and environmental data on the astronaut population may create opportunities for advanced analytics and human-environment modeling that goes beyond that achieved in isolated experimental designs; and (7) Translation of relevant research to operations is a complex, transdisciplinary enterprise in which the approach must apply across the physical, biological, behavioral, and social sciences. The approach to synthesizing evidence must address both source and fidelity of data, and reflect the most general attributes of quality of evidence in science and engineering: reliability and validity. The authors are developing a two-factor approach which includes the various kinds of evidence required to understand risks and for the integrated interpretation of all evidence that is essential to develop standards and countermeasures. A unified framework for aggregating and assessing different kinds of evidence provides a consistent, traceable, evidence-based decision-making process to translate research to operations in an environment where engineers, scientists, physicians, and managers all engage in analyzing the trade space of vehicle design, standards, requirements and solutions for spaceflight.

Steinberg, S. L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Training, Retention, and Transfer of Data Entry Perceptual and Motoric Processes Over Long Retention Intervals

Subjects trained in a standard data entry task, which involved typing numbers (e.g., 5421) using their right hands. At test (6 months post-training), subjects completed the standard task, followed by a left-hand variant (typing with their left hands) that involved the same perceptual, but different motoric, processes as the standard task. At a second test (8 months post-training), subjects completed the standard task, followed by a code variant (translating letters into digits, then typing the digits with their right hands) that involved different perceptual, but the same motoric, processes as the standard task. For each of the three tasks, half the trials were trained numbers (old) and half were new. Repetition priming (faster response times to old than new numbers) was found for each task. Repetition priming for the standard task reflects retention of trained numbers; for the left-hand variant reflects transfer of perceptual processes; and for the code variant reflects transfer of motoric processes. There was thus evidence for both specificity and generalizability of training data entry perceptual and motoric processes over very long retention intervals.

dat↗