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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗
NASA NTRS2006

Utilizing Traveler Demand Modeling to Predict Future Commercial Flight Schedules in the NAS

The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These resulting demand scenarios can be incorporated into future flight schedules, therefore providing a quantifiable demand for flights in the NAS for a range of futures. In addition, new future airline business scenarios are investigated that illustrate when direct flights can replace connecting flights and larger aircraft can be substituted, only when justified by demand.

Viken, Jeff↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Tropical Cyclone—Ocean Interactions in Future Changes in Hurricane Katrina

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and precipitation are projected to increase in the future. However, some projections are based on atmosphere‐only models in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed, whereas projections based on global atmosphere‐ocean coupled models can be subject to long‐term ocean biases. We investigated the role of TC‐ocean interactions in future changes in TC intensity and precipitation in Hurricane Katrina. We performed four‐member ensembles using convection‐permitting atmosphere‐only and atmosphere‐ocean regional models for the historical climate and four future climates. We found that although future TC intensity and precipitation increased regardless of ocean coupling, ocean coupling dampened the future minimum sea‐level pressure decrease by half and amplified future precipitation scaling. Compared to future changes in upper‐ocean temperature, changes in salinity contributed little to future changes in TC intensity. This study highlights the importance of considering TC‐ocean interactions to reduce uncertainty in the magnitude of future TC intensity and precipitation projections.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ventenata dubia projected to expand in the western United States despite future novel conditions

Abstract Distributions of both native and invasive species are expected to shift under future climate. Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to explore future habitats, but sources of uncertainty including novel climate conditions may reduce the reliability of future projections. We explore the potential spread of the invasive annual grass ventenata ( Ventenata dubia ) in the western United States under both current and future climate scenarios using boosted regression tree models and 30 global climate models (GCMs). We quantify novel climate conditions, prediction variability arising from both the SDMs and GCMs, and the agreement among GCMs. Results demonstrate that currently suitable habitat is concentrated inside the invaded range of the northwest, but substantial habitat exists outside the invaded range in the Southern Rockies and southwestern US mountains. Future suitability projections vary greatly among GCMs, but GCMs commonly projected decreased suitability in the invaded range and increased suitability along higher elevations of interior mountainous areas. Climate novelty did not appear to undermine the prediction reliability in many cases where the climate–species relationship was fully represented by the occurrence data. GCM‐derived variability resulting from variation in future cool season precipitation and temperature seasonality was greatest in the Rocky Mountains. SDM‐derived variability was higher in currently suitable habitat, and few GCMs projections agreed that these areas would contain future suitable habitat. However, while prediction variability was high, many GCM projections agreed that parts of the Rocky, Wasatch, and Uinta Mountains would contain highly suitable habitat in the future. As disturbances in the interior mountains occur in coming decades, reducing some natural barriers to invasion, land managers, and conservationists will need to monitor for ventenata in post‐disturbance environments. Changes to invasion potential may not play out for several decades, but results related to current potential may have applications for early detection and rapid response planning.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Future Solar Irradiance Projections Using the NSRDB

Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted to understand potential impacts of future climate change in renewable generation on the power sector. Climate model projection has been recognized by the renewable energy community as a useful data set to analyze the impacts of future climate change on renewable resources. However, future climate projections generated from general circulation models (GCMs) contain inherent biases that need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. In addition, the coarse spatiotemporal resolution of GCMs needs to be improved for regional climate studies. In this work, we develop statistical methods to downscale future projections of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) in a computationally efficient way. Our approach builds statistical downscaling models that correct bias of climate projection of GHI and downscale the future GHI projection from daily-scale to hourly-scale. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate the statistical models and validate the downscaled GHI projections across the contiguous United State (CONUS). Preliminary results show that the statistical approach efficiently downscales climate projections of GHI with a nBIAS of 3%, nMAE of 34 % and nRMSE of 46% calculated against NSRDB for CONUS. This study describes the implemented methodology and initial results as well as future research to create high-resolution climate data sets for solar energy applications.

analytical models↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analyzing the Impact of Future Weather Data on Energy Consumption in Weatherization Assistant

This study supports the mission of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP), which aims to increase the energy efficiency of dwellings and reduce their total residential expenditures. Specifically, we examine how projected future climate conditions may affect residential building energy performance by integrating future weather data into the National Energy Audit Tool (NEAT). Since WAP evaluates the cost-effectiveness of retrofit measures over lifespans of up to 30 years, accounting for evolving climate conditions is increasingly important. To reflect future household energy demands, this study replaces historically based Typical Meteorological Year (TMY3) weather inputs with Future Typical Meteorological Year (fTMY) datasets derived from global climate model (GCM) projections. A simulation-based framework was established to enable NEAT analysis under future weather conditions. This workflow involves converting EPW-format weather files into JSON inputs compatible with NEAT and generating degree-hour metrics needed for load calculations. The fTMY dataset used in this study was developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory through downscaling of six GCMs under different emission scenarios and covers the period from 2020 to 2100. In contrast, the TMY3 dataset is based on historical weather data from 1961 to 1990. Simulations were conducted for benchmark single-family prototype buildings across ASHRAE climate zones 1–7, which cover all regions of the U.S. except the subarctic Zone 8 in northern Alaska, evaluating both heating and cooling loads under TMY3 and fTMY conditions. Four foundation types were tested, while heating systems were standardized, as NEAT does not differentiate thermal energy load by HVAC system type in its load calculations. Results show that fTMY weather input consistently yield lower heating loads and higher cooling loads across most locations, aligning with expected climate warming trends. Notably, colder regions such as zones 6A, 6B, and 7 experience marked reductions in heating load, while warmer and transitional zones, such as 2A (Lufkin, TX) and 3C (San Francisco, CA), have substantial increases in cooling loads. Although this study does not directly assess the performance of retrofit measures under future climate conditions, it provides a critical foundation for doing so. By quantifying shifts in baseline (i.e., pre-retrofit case) energy loads between historical and future weather files, the study highlights the importance of integrating climate-responsive data into audit tools. These findings will inform future efforts to evaluate the long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of weatherization measures under changing climate conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Wind Energy Resources and Cost Uncertainties Across the United States

This dataset contains results estimating projections of change of annual capacity factors and levelized cost of energy for several turbine technologies in the 2024 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). Projections of change are based on downscaled earth system model (ESM) data from Sup3rCC. There has been evidence of reductions in average wind speeds over land in North America since the 1980s, and several models project that average wind speeds will continue to decrease. Concurrently, the cost of wind energy systems in the United States has been decreasing since around 2010, a trend also projected to continue. There is considerable uncertainty in these future projections, with quantitative estimates of future wind resource and system costs varying widely. To study this, we run land-based wind energy models with a range of possible future system costs, turbine designs, and meteorological inputs from multiple downscaled earth system models over the contiguous United States to estimate critical system performance metrics such as annual energy production (AEP) and levelized cost of energy. Where multiple earth system models agree, changes in mean AEP from the time period 2000-2019 to 2040-2059 can be as high as +10% in South Texas or as low as -20% in Iowa. Several additional states in the Midwest that currently have considerable wind generation capacity show the possibility of substantial decreases in AEP by mid-century. Larger turbines and moderate reductions in system costs can offset even the largest projected decreases in wind resource, but much uncertainty remains in the extent to which wind resources will actually change into the future and to what extent wind energy systems can drive down future costs. An analysis of variance shows, in several states in the Midwest, the uncertainty in future wind resource can be almost as important for future changes in the cost of wind energy as the uncertainty in future system costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Future projections of storm surge in Hurricane Katrina and sensitivity to meteorological forcing resolution

In this study, we investigated whether and how the storm surge induced by Hurricane Katrina could change if it occurs in a future warmer climate, and the sensitivity of the changes to atmospheric forcing resolution. Climate model simulations of Hurricane Katrina at 27 km, 4.5 km, and 3 km resolutions were used to drive storm surge simulations in historical and future climates using the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. We found that peak surge height increased significantly in the future with all forcing resolutions. However, the future projection is 22% greater in the 3 km forcing, typical of regional climate models, compared to the 27 km forcing, typical of state-of-the-art global climate models. Additionally, the spatial extent of the future change is highly sensitive to forcing resolution, extending most broadly under the 27 km forcing. Furthermore, we found that storm surge duration decreases in the future with all forcing resolutions due to increasing TC translation speed and decreasing ocean lifetime. However, the future change in the surge duration is sensitive to the forcing resolution, decreasing by 31% in the 27 km forcing and 6% in the 3 km forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Influence of ENSO Diversity on Future Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity by impacting environmental conditions important for TC genesis. However, the influence of future climate change on the teleconnection between ENSO and Atlantic TCs is uncertain, as climate change is expected to impact both ENSO and the mean climate state. We used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model on a tropical channel domain to simulate 5-member ensembles of Atlantic TC seasons in historical and future climates under different ENSO conditions. Experiments were forced with idealized sea surface temperature configurations based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble representing: a monthly varying climatology, eastern Pacific El Niño, central Pacific El Niño, and La Niña. The historical simulations produced fewer Atlantic TCs during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño, consistent with observations and other modeling studies. For each ENSO state, the future simulations produced a similar teleconnection with Atlantic TCs as in the historical simulations. Specifically, La Niña continues to enhance Atlantic TC activity, and El Niño continues to suppress Atlantic TCs, with greater suppression during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño. In addition, we found a decrease in the Atlantic TC frequency in the future relative to historical regardless of ENSO state, which was associated with a future increase in northern tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear and a future decrease in the zonal tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, corresponding to a more El Niño–like mean climate state. Our results indicate that ENSO will remain useful for seasonal Atlantic TC prediction in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

Space Technology 5: Pathfinder for Future Micro-Sat Constellations

The Space Technology 5 (ST-5) Project, currently in the implementation phase, is part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) s New Millennium Program (NMP). ST-5 will consist of a constellation of three miniature satellites, each with mass less than 25 kg and size approximately 60 cm by 30 cm. ST-5 addresses technology challenges, as well as fabrication, assembly, test and operations strategies for future micro-satellite missions. ST-5 will be deployed into a highly eccentric, geo-transfer orbit (GTO). This will expose the spacecraft to a high radiation environment as well as provide a low level magnetic background. A three-month flight demonstration phase is planned to validate the technologies and demonstrate concepts for future missions. Each ST-5 spacecraft incorporates NMP competitively-selected breakthrough technologies. These include Cold Gas Micro-Thrusters for propulsion and attitude control, miniature X-band transponder for space-ground communications, Variable Emittance Coatings for dynamic thermal control, and CULPRiT ultra low power logic chip used for Reed-Solomon encoding. The ST-5 spacecraft itself is a technology that can be infused into future missions. It is a fully functional micro-spacecraft built within tight volume and mass constraints. It is built to withstand a high radiation environment, large thermal variations, and high launch loads. The spacecraft power system is low-power and low-voltage, and is designed to turn on after separation &om the launch vehicle. Some of the innovations that are included in the ST-5 design are a custom spacecraft deployment structure, magnetometer deployment boom, nutation damper, X-band antenna, miniature spinning sun sensor, solar array with triple junction solar cells, integral card cage assembly containing single card Command and Data Handling and Power System Electronics, miniature magnetometer, and lithium ion battery. ST-5 will demonstrate the ability of a micro satellite to perform research-quality science. Each ST-5 spacecraft will deploy a precision magnetometer to be used both for attitude determination and as a representative science instrument. The spacecraft has been developed with a low magnetic signature to avoid interference with the magnetometer. The spacecraft will be able to detect and respond autonomously to science events, i.e. significant changes in the magnetic field measurements. The three spacecraft will be a pathfinder for future constellation missions. They will be deployed to demonstrate an appropriate geometry for scientific measurements as a constellation. They will be operationally managed as a constellation, demonstrating automation and communication strategies that will be useful for future missions. The technologies and future mission concepts will be validated both on the ground and in space. Technologies will be validated on the ground by a combination of component level and system level testing of the flight hardware in a thermal vacuum environment. In flight, specific validation runs are planned for each of the technologies. Each validation run consists of one or more orbits with a specific validation objective. This paper will describe the ST-5 mission, and the applicability of the NMP technologies, spacecraft, and mission concepts to future missions. It will also discuss the validation approach for the ST-5 technologies and mission concepts.

Carlisle, Candace↗
NASA NTRS2016

Aviation Safety Concerns for the Future

The Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST) is a multidisciplinary international group of aviation professionals that was established to identify possible future aviation safety hazards. The principle was adopted that future hazards are undesirable consequences of changes, and a primary activity of FAST became identification and prioritization of possible future changes affecting aviation. Since 2004, FAST has been maintaining a catalogue of "Areas of Change" (AoC) that could potentially influence aviation safety. The horizon for such changes is between 5 to 20 years. In this context, changes must be understood as broadly as possible. An AoC is a description of the change, not an identification of the hazards that result from the change. An ex-post analysis of the AoCs identified in 2004 demonstrates that changes catalogued many years previous were directly implicated in the majority of fatal aviation accidents over the past ten years. This paper presents an overview of the current content of the AoC catalogue and a subsequent discussion of aviation safety concerns related to these possible changes. Interactions among these future changes may weaken critical functions that must be maintained to ensure safe operations. Safety assessments that do not appreciate or reflect the consequences of significant interaction complexity will not be fully informative and can lead to inappropriate trade-offs and increases in other risks. The FAST strongly encourages a system-wide approach to safety risk assessment across the global aviation system, not just within the domain for which future technologies or operational concepts are being considered. The FAST advocates the use of the "Areas of Change" concept, considering that several possible future phenomena may interact with a technology or operational concept under study producing unanticipated hazards.

emerging risks↗
NASA NTRS2017

On the Development and Application of High Data Rate Architecture (HiDRA) in Future Space Networks

Historically, space missions have been severely constrained by their ability to downlink the data they have collected. These constraints are a result of relatively low link rates on the spacecraft as well as limitations on the time during which data can be sent. As part of a coherent strategy to address existing limitations and get more data to the ground more quickly, the Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) program has been developing an architecture for a future solar system Internet. The High Data Rate Architecture (HiDRA) project is designed to fit into such a future SCaN network. HiDRA's goal is to describe a general packet-based networking capability which can be used to provide assets with efficient networking capabilities while simultaneously reducing the capital costs and operational costs of developing and flying future space systems.Along these lines, this paper begins by reviewing various characteristics of modern satellite design as well as relevant characteristics of emerging technologies (such as free-space optical links capable of working at 100+ Gbps). Next, the paper describes HiDRA's design, and how the system is able to both integrate and support the operation of not only today's high-rate systems, but also the high-rate systems likely to be found in the future. This section also explores both existing and future networking technologies, such as Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) protocol (RFC4838 citeRFC:1, RFC5050citeRFC:2), and explains how HiDRA supports them. Additionally, this section explores how HiDRA is used for scheduling data movement through both proactive and reactive link management. After this, the paper moves on to explore a reference implementation of HiDRA. This implementation is currently being realized based on a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) memory and interface controller that is itself controlled by a local computer running DTN software. Next, this paper explores HiDRA's natural evolution, which includes an integration path for software-defined networking (SDN) switches. This section also describes considerations for both near-Earth and deep-space instantiations of HiDRA, describing how differences in latencies between the environments will necessarily influence how the system is configured and the networks operate. Finally, this paper describes future work. This section includes a description of a potential ISS implementation which will allow rapid advancement through the technology readiness levels (TRL). This section also explores work being done to support HiDRA's successful implementation and operation in a heterogeneous network: such a network could include communications equipment spanning many vintages and capabilities, and one significant aspect of HiDRA's future development involves balancing compatibility with capability.

DTN↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Investigation Into Transecting Satellites in Future Space Traffic Management Scenarios

The number of satellites expected to populate the near-Earth space environment is set to dramatically increase in the coming decade as new large constellations are approved and deployed. Current strategies for deploying new batches of these satellites often involve launching into an initial orbit, and then performing apogee raising maneuvers to reach a target altitude. Similarly, end-of-life planning for these constellation satellites can consist of de-orbit burns that lower perigee to permit disposal via re-entry. Both the raising and de-orbiting maneuvers can result in the individual satellites traveling in transecting orbits that have the potential to cross other spacecraft trajectories. While individual large constellations may be able to coexist in separate altitude and inclination bands, having thousands of satellites moving between these bands as new satellites are added and old satellites are removed could pose additional collision risks. Similar concerns have been raised regarding the impact that large numbers of university-class CubeSats might have in terms of their overall collision risk, especially as these satellites typically do not have propulsion systems for active maneuvering. To assess the impact that transecting satellites might have on future space traffic management strategies, this study explored a variety of realistic future scenarios using a high-fidelity simulation tool. The model can simulate the orbit of tens of thousands of resident space objects (RSOs) simultaneously, to include active satellites, debris, rocket bodies, or even future hypothetical satellite constellations, using a realistic force model that incorporates non-spherical gravity, atmospheric drag, and solar radiation pressure, as well as station-keeping. The simulation can be customized to accommodate different methods of calculating the probability of collision, as well as the process for determining probability ellipsoids and screening volumes. This makes it possible to replicate, and compare, different processes used by different spacecraft operators and space situational awareness (SSA) providers. As the model is run forward in time, each conjunction event is recorded, allowing for the analysis of statistics and meta-data related to these events, providing insight into the nature and frequency of potential collisions, such as whether are they active or passive objects, what size are the two objects, and who owns the objects (if known). This information makes it possible to characterize how changes to the status quo affect the number and type of conjunctions that occur, as well as the distributional effects on various types of satellite operators. To assess the general risks that transecting satellites might pose for hypothetical future space object environments, approximately 60,000 new large constellation satellites were considered, in addition to the existing catalog of approximately 7800 known resident space objects (RSOs), over a simulation period of one year. The results indicate that the future space environment will introduce a non-linear increase in conjunction events as the number of RSOs also increase. This will require adjustments to spacecraft fuel budgets in order to conduct the avoidance maneuvers necessary to minimize collision risk, both for existing and new satellites. This increase is due in large part to the higher density of RSOs and the overlap between some constellation orbits. Current catalog objects were shown to require three times more ∆V for collision avoidance (CA) maneuvers in the simulated future environment, and some constellation spacecraft were estimated to devote the majority of their annual ∆V to CA. The impact of small satellites was found to be proportional for the current space environment, and actually decreased in terms of percentage for the future scenario, suggesting that small satellites do not pose an outsized collision risk. Lastly, transecting satellites were found to contribute thousands of additional conjunctions outside of their operational orbit, and may require up to an additional 5% in CA maneuver fuel allocation.

conjunction assessment↗
NASA NTRS2013

Using Paleo-climate Comparisons to Constrain Future Projections in CMIP5

We present a description of the theoretical framework and best practice for using the paleo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to constrain future projections of climate using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting paleo-climate changes from the present over 3 periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 thousand years before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (8501850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of paleo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitationtemperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with paleoclimate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also find that some comparisons, for instance associated with model variability, are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing timeseries, or show time dependent behaviour, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the paleo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modeling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

paleoclimate↗
DOE OSTI2024

Future Climate Projections for South Florida: Improving the Accuracy of Air Temperature and Precipitation Extremes With a Hybrid Statistical Bias Correction Technique

Projecting future climate variables is essential for comprehending the potential impacts on hydroclimatic hazards like floods and droughts. Evaluating these impacts is challenging due to the coarse spatial resolution of global climate models (GCMs); therefore, bias correction is widely used. Here, we applied two statistical methods—standard empirical quantile mapping (EQM) and a hybrid approach, EQM with linear correction (EQM-LIN)—to bias correct precipitation and air temperature simulated by nine GCMs. We used historical observations from 20 weather stations across South Florida to project future climate under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Compared to the EQM, the hybrid EQM-LIN method improved R 2 of daily quantiles by up to 30% over the historical period and improved MAE up to 70% in months that contain most extreme values. Projected extreme precipitation at the weather stations showed that, compared to the EQM-LIN, the EQM method underestimates the high quantiles by up to 26% in SSP585. The projected changes in annual maximum precipitation from historical period (1985–2014) to near future (2040–2069) and far future (2070–2100) were between 2% and 16% across the study area. Projected future precipitation suggested a slight decrease during summer but an increase in fall. This, along with rising summer temperatures, suggested that South Florida can experience rapid oscillations from warmer summers and increased flooding in fall under future climate. Additionally, our comparative analyses with globally and nationally downscaled studies showed that such coarse scale studies do not represent the climatic extremes well, particularly for high quantile precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wideranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Projecting Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Actual Evapotranspiration for the Narmada River Basin in Central India in the Future

Assessment of actual evapotranspiration (ET) is essential as it controls the exchange of water and heat energy between the atmosphere and land surface. ET also influences the available water resources and assists in the crop water assessment in agricultural areas. This study involves the assessment of spatial distribution of seasonal and annual ET using Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) and provides an estimation of future changes in ET due to land use and climate change for a portion of the Narmada river basin in Central India. Climate change effects on future ET are assessed using the ACCESS1-0 model of CMIP5. A Markov Chain model estimated future land use based on the probability of changes in the past. The ET analysis is carried out for the years 2009-2011. The results indicate variation in the seasonal ET with the changed land use. High ET is observed over forest areas and crop lands, but ET decreases over crop lands after harvest. The overall annual ET is high over water bodies and forest areas. ET is high in the premonsoon season over the water bodies and decreases in the winter. Future ET in the 2020s, 2030s, 2040s, and 2050s is shown with respect to land use and climate changes that project a gradual decrease due to the constant removal of the forest areas. The lowest ET is projected in 2050. Individual impact of land use change projects decreases in ET from 1990 to 2050, while climate change effect projects increases in ET in the future due to rises in temperature. However, the combined impacts of land use and climate changes indicate a decrease in ET in the future.

Kundu, Sananda↗
NASA NTRS2021

Future Model-Based Systems Engineering Vision and Strategy Bridge for NASA

A vision for the future of model-based systems engineering (MBSE) at NASA in 2029 and a strategy bridge towards that future are presented. Strategic thinking and leading change concepts were used to analyze reports and presentations on global trends and visionary thinking about the future of systems and digital engineering. The context, strategic time horizon, stakeholders, strategic challenges, strategic advantages, driving forces, and opportunities were considered. The analysis resulted in a future vision of MBSE that shows what NASA systems engineers and digital machines will do to perform rapid, extraordinary, and unprecedented missions. The NASA systems engineer, in this future vision, works with a global project team in a virtual and collaborative environment, engineers the system, and uses digital approaches as the routine and default way of working. The digital machines provide data-driven and automated mission designs; have a backbone of program and project management, systems engineering, and product life-cycle management; and are a knowledge-sharing infrastructure. The NASA systems engineer and the systems engineering team are envisioned to use digital machines to plan and perform rapid exploration missions, develop a digital twin that lasts across the life cycle, and develop enduring and adaptable systems. NASA has an engineering enterprise and a life-cycle management framework that endure, adapt, and respond. A strategy bridge based on the Baldrige Criteria for Performance Excellence Framework and lessons learned from a recent MBSE initiative illuminates a way forward from today to this desired future. The bridge lays out a strategy for leaders and recommends investments of today for immediate benefits and for benefits in 2029.

model-based systems engineering, digital engineeri↗