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At least 37 records · Page 2

Human‐induced salinity changes impact marine organisms and ecosystems

Abstract Climate change is fundamentally altering marine and coastal ecosystems on a global scale. While the effects of ocean warming and acidification on ecology and ecosystem functions and services are being comprehensively researched, less attention is directed toward understanding the impacts of human‐driven ocean salinity changes. The global water cycle operates through water fluxes expressed as precipitation, evaporation, and freshwater runoff from land. Changes to these in turn modulate ocean salinity and shape the marine and coastal environment by affecting ocean currents, stratification, oxygen saturation, and sea level rise. Besides the direct impact on ocean physical processes, salinity changes impact ocean biological functions with the ecophysiological consequences are being poorly understood. This is surprising as salinity changes may impact diversity, ecosystem and habitat structure loss, and community shifts including trophic cascades. Climate model future projections (of end of the century salinity changes) indicate magnitudes that lead to modification of open ocean plankton community structure and habitat suitability of coral reef communities. Such salinity changes are also capable of affecting the diversity and metabolic capacity of coastal microorganisms and impairing the photosynthetic capacity of (coastal and open ocean) phytoplankton, macroalgae, and seagrass, with downstream ramifications on global biogeochemical cycling. The scarcity of comprehensive salinity data in dynamic coastal regions warrants additional attention. Such datasets are crucial to quantify salinity‐based ecosystem function relationships and project such changes that ultimately link into carbon sequestration and freshwater as well as food availability to human populations around the globe. It is critical to integrate vigorous high‐quality salinity data with interacting key environmental parameters (e.g., temperature, nutrients, oxygen) for a comprehensive understanding of anthropogenically induced marine changes and its impact on human health and the global economy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scalable, In-situ Data Clustering Data Analysis for Extreme Scale Scientific Computing (Final Report)

The objective of this project is to address challenges in the design and development of scalable in-situ data clustering and analytics algorithms and software. Our goal is to develop parallel software consisting of a set of spatio-temporal data clustering and anomaly detection functions, both of which are very important for large-scale analysis and have wide applicability for in-situ runs as well as post-processing analysis. Our design principles for in-situ analysis consider the following: (1) identify parts of the computation can be done close to the data within the nodes, while it is still in memory; (2) extract analysis components can (and should) be performed in remote staging and analysis nodes; (3) develop error-bound approximation methods for applications tolerable for small errors; (4) identify the type of derived distributions and statistics, for spatio-temporal data, that can be kept locally in order to both accelerate computations and meet energy constraints in subsequent iterations and phases; (5) use a self-describing data format so that data can be consistent and understood among local storage (memory and SSDs) and at staging and analysis nodes, thereby providing portability and flexibility; (6) develop service-oriented functions that can schedule in-situ and post-hoc analysis tasks based on the dynamic requirements of applications. Our development focus is to produce the parallel data analysis software/library that will be scalable, reusable, extensible, and generic for applications in different disciplines. The software will be able to run in-situ with the simulations as well as post-hoc analysis. This approach will satisfy many synergistic requirements for data intensive applications executed on data coming from instruments and experiments. In particular, the proposed multilevel approach is directly applicable to perform design tradeoffs for running part of the algorithms near the instruments and the rest on remote (analysis) systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Valued peaks: Sustainable water allocation for small hydropower plants in an era of explicit ecological needs

Optimizing hydropower operations to balance economic profitability and support functioning ecosystem services is integral to river management policy. In this article, we propose a dynamic, constrained optimization framework for small hydropower plants (SHPs) to evaluate trade-offs between economic profitability and socio-ecological requirements. Specifically, we examine the balance between short-term losses in hydropower generation and the potential for compensatory benefits in the form of revenue from recreational ecosystem services, irrespective of the direct beneficiary. Our framework integrates a fish habitat model, a hydropower optimization model, and a recreational ecosystem service estimate to evaluate different environmental flow scenarios. The optimization process gives three outflow release scenarios, informed by previous streamflow realisations (dam inflow), and designed environmental flow constraints. The framework is applied and tested for the river Kuusinkijoki in North-eastern Finland, which is a habitat for migratory brown trout and grayling populations. We show that the revenue loss due to the environmental flow constraints arises through a reduction in revenue per generated energy unit and through a reduction in turbine efficiency. Additionally, the simulation results reveal that all the designed environmental flow constraints cannot be met simultaneously. Under the environmental flow scenario with both minimum flow and flow ramping rate constraints, the annual hydropower revenue decreases by 16.5 %. An annual increase of 8 % in recreational fishing visits offsets the revenue loss. In conclusion, the developed framework provides knowledge of the costs and benefits of hydropower environmental flow constraints and guides the prioritizing process of environmental measures.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Using soil library hyperspectral reflectance and machine learning to predict soil organic carbon: Assessing potential of airborne and spaceborne optical soil sensing

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a key variable to determine soil functioning, ecosystem services, and global carbon cycles. Spectroscopy, particularly optical hyperspectral reflectance coupled with machine learning, can provide rapid, efficient, and cost-effective quantification of SOC. However, how to exploit soil hyperspectral reflectance to predict SOC concentration, and the potential performance of airborne and satellite data for predicting surface SOC at large scales remain relatively underknown. Here, this study utilized a continental-scale soil laboratory spectral library (37,540 full-pedon 350–2500 nm reflectance spectra with SOC concentration of 0–780 g·kg –1 across the US) to thoroughly evaluate seven machine learning algorithms including Partial-Least Squares Regression (PLSR), Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Ridge, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) along with four preprocessed spectra, i.e. original, vector normalization, continuum removal, and first-order derivative, to quantify SOC concentration. Furthermore, by using the coupled soil-vegetation-atmosphere radiative transfer model, we simulated twelve airborne and spaceborne hyper/multi-spectral remote sensing data from surface bare soil laboratory spectra to evaluate their potential for estimating SOC concentration of surface bare soils. Results show that LSTM achieved best predictive performance of quantifying SOC concentration for the whole data sets (R 2 = 0.96, RMSE = 30.81 g·kg –1 ), mineral soils (SOC ≤ 120 g·kg –1 , R 2 = 0.71, RMSE = 10.60 g·kg –1 ), and organic soils (SOC > 120 g·kg –1 , R 2 = 0.78, RMSE = 62.31 g·kg –1 ). Spectral data preprocessing, particularly the first-order derivative, improved the performance of PLSR, RF, Ridge, KNN, and ANN, but not LSTM or CNN. We found that the SOC models of mineral and organic soils should be distinguished given their distinct spectral signatures. Finally, we identified that the shortwave infrared is vital for airborne and spaceborne hyperspectral sensors to monitor surface SOC. This study highlights the high accuracy of LSTM with hyperspectral/multispectral data to mitigate a certain level of noise (soil moisture <0.4 m 3 ·m –3 , green leaf area < 0.3 m 2 ·m –2 , plant residue <0.4 m 2 ·m –2 ) for quantifying surface SOC concentration. Forthcoming satellite hyperspectral missions like Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) have a high potential for future global soil carbon monitoring, while high-resolution satellite multispectral fusion data can be an alternative.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Field experiments show no consistent reductions in soil microbial carbon in response to warming

Soil microbes play an essential role in maintaining soil functions and services, but the dynamics of soil microbial biomass carbon (MBC) under global climate change remain unclear. Recently, Patoine et al. combined a global MBC data set with Random Forest modeling and reported that global MBC decreased over 1992–2013, mainly driven by increasing temperatures. Contrarily, using MBC field observations from soil warming manipulation experiments and in-situ long-term measurements across the globe, we found that MBC showed no significant changes under soil warming. Our findings indicate that soil MBC is unlikely to have decreased significantly due to the global warming of 0.28 °C during 1992–2013, and that further mechanistic studies are needed to understand potential changes in MBC under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A compendium of bacterial and archaeal single-cell amplified genomes from oxygen deficient marine waters

Oxygen-deficient marine waters referred to as oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) or anoxic marine zones (AMZs) are common oceanographic features. They host both cosmopolitan and endemic microorganisms adapted to low oxygen conditions. Microbial metabolic interactions within OMZs and AMZs drive coupled biogeochemical cycles resulting in nitrogen loss and climate active trace gas production and consumption. Global warming is causing oxygen-deficient waters to expand and intensify. Therefore, studies focused on microbial communities inhabiting oxygen-deficient regions are necessary to both monitor and model the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem functions and services. Here we present a compendium of 5,129 single-cell amplified genomes (SAGs) from marine environments encompassing representative OMZ and AMZ geochemical profiles. Of these, 3,570 SAGs have been sequenced to different levels of completion, providing a strain-resolved perspective on the genomic content and potential metabolic interactions within OMZ and AMZ microbiomes. Hierarchical clustering confirmed that samples from similar oxygen concentrations and geographic regions also had analogous taxonomic compositions, providing a coherent framework for comparative community analysis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Small-Scale Irrigation: Improving Food Security under Changing Climate and Water Resource Conditions in Ethiopia

We develop a new systems modeling tool that integrates knowledge from hydrology, agriculture, and economics to understand the effect of small-scale irrigation on food security and groundwater sustainability in Ethiopia. Irrigation is an effective tool to mitigate climate impacts and improve agricultural yields. Small-scale irrigation, such as decentralized groundwater irrigation, is well suited for developing countries where smallholder farming communities are widely dispersed and can only afford small infrastructure investment. We study the underlying interdependencies between food and water systems in Ethiopia, where small-holder agriculture is the foundation of the nation’s economy and climate variability has led to great challenges to its food security. Our coupled market and crop model with groundwater module captures the interdependencies of climate, water availability (including irrigation), crop yield, farmland allocation, crop production, transport and consumption based on a system approach across multiple spatial scales. We study the implication of small-scale irrigation to Ethiopia’s food security and water resource conditions as a “what-if” question by comparing an irrigation scenario to the calibrated baseline in 2015, a year of significant drought and crop failure over a large portion of Ethiopia. Our model offers fresh insights into geographic disparities in outcomes that are driven by baseline climate variability, soil fertility, and market conditions. In general, we find that small-scale irrigation can potentially improve food security through increases in food consumption, but it requires policy support to direct the increases of production to domestic consumption while maintaining a sustainable groundwater condition. By using Ethiopia as an example, we show the strength of our model to study how water infrastructure resources support critical functions and service in water and food systems.

Zhang, Ying↗

Artificial light at night: an underappreciated effect on phenology of deciduous woody plants

Artificial light at night (ALAN), an increasing anthropogenic driver, is widespread and shows rapid expansion with potential adverse impact on the terrestrial ecosystem. However, whether and to what extent does ALAN affect plant phenology, a critical factor influencing the timing of terrestrial ecosystem processes, remains unexplored due to limited ALAN observation. Here, we used the Black Marble ALAN product and phenology observations from USA National Phenology Network to investigate the impact of ALAN on deciduous woody plants phenology in the conterminous United States. We found that (1) ALAN significantly advanced the date of breaking leaf buds by 8.9 ± 6.9 days (mean ± SD) and delayed the coloring of leaves by 6.0 ± 11.9 days on average; (2) the magnitude of phenological changes was significantly correlated with the intensity of ALAN (P < 0.001); and (3) there was an interaction between ALAN and temperature on the coloring of leaves, but not on breaking leaf buds. We further showed that under future climate warming scenarios, ALAN will accelerate the advance in breaking leaf buds but exert a more complex effect on the coloring of leaves. This study suggests intensified ALAN may have far-reaching but underappreciated consequences in disrupting key ecosystem functions and services, which requires an interdisciplinary approach to investigate. Developing lighting strategies that minimize the impact of ALAN on ecosystems, especially those embedded and surrounding major cities, is challenging but must be pursued.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Latent Dirichlet Allocation model applied to airborne LiDAR data: A case study on mapping forest degradation associated with fragmentation and fire in the Amazon region

1. LiDAR data are being increasingly used to provide a detailed characterization of the vertical profile of forests. This characterization enables the generation of new insights on the influence of environmental drivers and anthropogenic disturbances on forest structure as well as on how forest structure influences important ecosystem functions and services. Unfortunately, extracting information from LiDAR data in a way that enables the spatial visualization of forest structure, as well as its temporal changes, is challenging due to the high dimensionality of these data. 2. In this study, we show how the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model applied to LiDAR data (LidarLDA) can be used to identify forest structural types and how the relative abundance of these forest types changes throughout the landscape. The code to fit this model is made available through the open-source r package LidarLDA in github. We illustrate the use of LidarLDA both with simulated data and data from a large-scale fire experiment in the Brazilian Amazon region. 3. Using simulated data, we demonstrate that LidarLDA accurately identifies the number of forest types as well as their spatial distribution and absorptance probabilities. For the empirical data, we found that LidarLDA detects both landscape-level patterns in forest structure as well as the strong interacting effect of fire and forest fragmentation on forest structure based on the experimental fire plots. More specifically, LidarLDA reveals that proximity to forest edge exacerbates the impact of fires, and that burned forests remain structurally different from unburned areas for at least 7 years, even when burned only once. Importantly, LidarLDA generates insights on the 3D structure of forest that cannot be obtained using more standard approaches that just focus on top-of-the-canopy information (e.g. canopy height models based on LiDAR data). 4. By enabling the mapping of forest structure and its temporal changes, we believe that LidarLDA will be of broad utility to the ecological research community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Experimental Test Site, Site 300: Soil Study Institutional Review Board #1081 Soil Sampling and Analysis Plan

This Soil Sampling and Analysis Plan (SAP) was prepared by the Environmental Functional Area/Technical Services Department (TSD) of the Environment, Safety & Health (ES&H) Directorate for the Project Management Office (PMO) to collect soil quality data at an area located at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL’s) Experimental Test Site, Site 300 (Site 300) (project) (Figures 1 and 2). The purpose of the project is to determine the chemical and radiological quality of soil in the project area to support feasibility and design of future improvements. This SAP identifies chemicals of concern and describes the procedures for collection and analysis of environmental samples, and evaluation of analytical data (chemical and radiological) to determine the reuse potential of shallow soil at the project area. This SAP follows the criteria established in LLNL’s Soils Screening and Management Plan (SSMP) (LLNL 2022), which is consistent with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) guidance for developing Data Quality Objectives for environmental data (EPA 2006) and the Multi-Agency Radiation Survey and Site Investigation Manual (MARSSIM) guidance (U.S. NRC, U.S. EPA, U.S. DOE, U.S. DOD 2000). The scope of this SAP is based on preliminary design information provided by PMO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Living-off-the-land Techniques Unlikely to Supplant Energy Sector-Focused OT-Specific Malware

Despite increased reports of energy sector-focused threat actors using living-off-the-land (LOTL) techniques, it is unlikely LOTL techniques will wholly supplant malware in energy sector operational technology (OT)-focused cyber operations. Threat actors leverage LOTL techniques to access energy sector networks, abstracting process information and maintaining persistence. Although threat actors using LOTL techniques have successfully interrupted energy sector industrial control environments, designed features of OT-specific malware likely increase the cyber-physical impact of an attack and delay recovery of critical functions and services. Malicious actors will very likely continue to use LOTL techniques for stealth, while designing malware to bolster final impacts on cyber-physical systems in energy sector OT environments.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

CASTLE: Conflict Analysis Strategy Testing Laboratory Environment v.1.0.0

SAND2024-01743O The Conflict Analysis Strategy Testing Laboratory Environment (CASTLE) is a software framework that enables and simplifies building a novel, turn-based strategy game in which it can define its own rules, maps, pieces, and interactions. The software is for novice to experienced programmers with some knowledge of Unity3D, a tool used in game production. CASTLE includes a library of common game mechanics used for strategic wargames and traditional board games, such as cards, tokens, dice, and grid maps. It follows design principles popularized by the video game industry and uses singletons for managing portions of the code. CASTLE builds on Unity's component-based design and can respond to engine events during execution. Among the numerous user-friendly features: Build games quickly and cost-effectively Network in real-time and apply data to new games developed on the framework Host multiple participants online Connect rule- or machine learning-based agents to a CASTLE game to serve as opponents or to simulate games Collect data collection from players and in-game behaviors Create a survey to gather demographics or opinions from players Store data locally or save it to an external database through Representational State Transfer (REST) functions CASTLE, which was prototyped using Microsoft Azure, is also designed for easily distributing online games using popular cloud services. The multiplayer functionality includes an agent interface, allowing developers to construct AI players that can substitute for humans in any of the games. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Fabian, Nathan↗

On-Demand Transit: Features, Benefits, Challenges, Costs, and Evaluation

The U.S. Department of Energy's National Laboratory of the Rockies works in partnership with communities and transit agencies across North America to support and evaluate customized on-demand transit (ODT) systems. ODT, also known as on-demand mobility or microtransit, is a flexible form of public mobility. Unlike traditional fixed-route transit, ODT adjusts where and when service is provided rather than following predetermined schedules and routes. Having evolved from commercial ride-hailing business models, ODT leverages smartphone connectivity and real-time route optimization to provide highly responsive and dynamic service. ODT trips, which are usually shared, can function as a standalone service or as a first-/last-mile service connecting riders to other types of transit.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Precursor Analysis Report: Conti Ransomware Attack on the Health Service Executive of Ireland 2021

The Conti Ransomware Attack on the Health Service Executive (HSE) of Ireland 2021 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed by the adversary. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. The HSE provides public healthcare corporate services and operational services throughout Ireland, with critical functions including the acute national ambulance service, acute hospital service, and community healthcare service. On 14 May 2021, Conti ransomware encrypted 80 percent of the HSE’s Information Technology (IT) infrastructure across corporate, hospital, community, and electronic health record services. Conti is a ransomware-as-a-service operation that encrypts local files, uses double extortion against victims, and is facilitated by many intrusion tools. The attack forced the HSE to shut down its entire IT infrastructure to contain the ransomware, forcing employees to revert to pen and paper recordkeeping and leading to the cancellation of many appointments and procedures. The adversary also exfiltrated 700 GB of data, compromising the confidentiality of patients’ protected health information. Had the adversary targeted the COVID-19 cloud systems or operational technology assets, such as Internet of Medical Things medical devices or smart building management systems, the impact of the attack would almost certainly have been far more severe. Researchers and analysts identified 21 unique techniques (used in a sequence of 23 steps) likely utilized during the attack with a total of 1,185 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Twenty-one of the identified techniques used during the attack on the HSE were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 1,086 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 850 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 57 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Cloud Services Enable Efficient AI-Guided Simulation Workflows across Heterogeneous Resources

Applications which fuse machine learning and simulation are rarely best served by a single computing resource. Highly parallel simulation codes are best deployed on super- computers, while AI tasks used to decide which simulations to perform may be best suited to specialized accelerators. Here we present a Function-as-a-Service (FaaS) system for executing complex, distributed computational campaigns that achieves performance parity with conventional workflow systems without the complexities of secure network connections between compute providers. One innovation enabling high performance is a subsystem that directly moves task data between sites, separate from the cloud-hosted FaaS system used to distribute task instructions. We also introduce a flexible scheduling system that allows us access factor of 2 trade offs between the amount of resources required to solve a problem at each compute site. We anticipate that this system will upgrade multi-site applications from demonstration projects to routine practice in computational science.

Ward, Logan↗

XaaS: Acceleration as a Service to Enable Productive High-Performance Cloud Computing

High-performance computing (HPC) and the cloud have evolved independently, specializing their innovations into performance or productivity. Acceleration as a Service (XaaS) is a recipe to empower both fields with a shared execution platform that provides transparent access to computing resources, regardless of the underlying cloud or HPC service provider. Bridging HPC and cloud advancements, XaaS presents a unified architecture built on performance-portable containers. Here, our converged model concentrates on low-overhead, high-performance communication and computing, targeting resource-intensive workloads from climate simulations to machine learning. XaaS lifts the restricted allocation model of Function as a Service (FaaS), allowing users to benefit from the flexibility and efficient resource utilization of serverless computing while supporting long-running and performance-sensitive workloads from HPC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Change Agent: Energy Storage as a Driver of Regulatory Evolution

Purpose of Review Dividing the electric grid into the functions of generation, transmission, anddistribution enabled the drawing of jurisdictional lines and the application of the U.S.Constitution’s federalist system to energy regulation. Energy storage technologies,which can be placed throughout the grid to increase flexibility, can provide serviceacross all three of those functions. But the jurisdictional boundaries that have beendrawn around those functions have created barriers that restrict energy storagetechnologies from achieving their full potential. This review analyzes regulatory changes made to reduce barriers to storage deployment and their broader impacts on energy regulation in the U.S. Recent Findings Major energy regulations promulgated at the state and federal levels have generally focused on liberalizing the U.S. electric system through deregulation and increased competition. Paradoxically, however, these efforts have erected strict regulatory barriers that prevent energy storage technologies from providing service across multiple functions. A new wave of regulations in recent years has endeavored to reduce and remove those barriers. Summary Energy regulations adopted in recent years to reduce barriers to energy storage functionality in recent years have had deep and far-reaching impacts on U.S. electric regulation. These impacts go beyond storage and affect all energy technologies. This paper traces the development of energy regulation in U.S., the functional barriers that they created that impede energy storage functionality, recent efforts to remove those barriers, and the broader effects of those efforts. It concludes with a brief discussion of remaining barriers that prevent energy storage from reaching their full potential on the U.S. electric grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Shower thoughts: why scientists should spend more time in the rain

Abstract Stormwater is a vital resource and dynamic driver of terrestrial ecosystem processes. However, processes controlling interactions during and shortly after storms are often poorly seen and poorly sensed when direct observations are substituted with technological ones. We discuss how human observations complement technological ones and the benefits of scientists spending more time in the storm. Human observation can reveal ephemeral storm-related phenomena such as biogeochemical hot moments, organismal responses, and sedimentary processes that can then be explored in greater resolution using sensors and virtual experiments. Storm-related phenomena trigger lasting, oversized impacts on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes, organismal traits or functions, and ecosystem services at all scales. We provide examples of phenomena in forests, across disciplines and scales, that have been overlooked in past research to inspire mindful, holistic observation of ecosystems during storms. We conclude that technological observations alone are insufficient to trace the process complexity and unpredictability of fleeting biogeochemical or ecological events without the shower thoughts produced by scientists’ human sensory and cognitive systems during storms.

ecosystem functioning↗