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The Solar Curtailment Paradox
This presentation summarizes work recently published in a Joule article, "The Curtailment Paradox in the Transition to High Solar Power Systems." Rising penetrations of variable renewable energy (VRE) in power systems are expected to increase the curtailment of these resources because of oversupply and operational constraints. We evaluate the effect on curtailment from various flexibility approaches, including storage, thermal generator flexibility, operating reserve eligibility rules, transmission constraints, and temporal resolution, by using a highly resolved realistic system. Results reveal two aspects of a curtailment paradox as the system evolves to higher solar penetration levels. First, thermal generator parameters, especially in restricting minimum operating levels and ramp rates, affect VRE curtailment more in mid-PV penetration levels (~25%–40%) but much less at lower (~20%) or higher (~45%) PV penetration levels. Second, although allowing VRE and storage to provide operating reserve results in significant operating costs and curtailment benefits, the price suppression effect from these resources reduces incentives for PV to provide operating reserves with curtailed energy.
Price Formation in Zero-Carbon Electricity Markets: The Role of Hydropower
In April 2019, Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) launched the HydroWIRES Initiative to understand, enable, and improve hydropower and pumped storage hydropower’s (PSH’s) contributions to reliability, resilience, and integration in the rapidly evolving U.S. electricity system. The unique characteristics of hydropower, including PSH, make it well suited to provide a range of storage, generation flexibility, and other grid services to support the cost-effective integration of variable renewable resources. The U.S. electricity system is rapidly evolving, bringing both opportunities and challenges for the hydropower sector. While increasing deployment of variable renewables such as wind and solar have enabled low-cost, clean energy in many U.S. regions, it has also created a need for resources that can store energy or quickly change their operations to ensure a reliable and resilient grid. Hydropower (including PSH) is not only a supplier of bulk, low-cost, renewable energy but also a source of large-scale flexibility and a force multiplier for other renewable power generation sources. Realizing this potential requires innovation in several areas: understanding value drivers for hydropower under evolving system conditions, describing flexible capabilities and associated tradeoffs associated with hydropower meeting system needs, optimizing hydropower operations and planning, and developing innovative technologies that enable hydropower to operate more flexibly.
Mapping thermal energy storage technologies with advanced nuclear reactors
Advanced nuclear power plants (NPPs) will potentially need to operate in environments where power generation flexibility is more highly valued than the stability or baseload generation capability for conventional demand curves. Thermal energy storage (TES) systems would enable NPPs to respond nimbly to market variability and could also position advanced NPPs to participate differently in restructured markets, thus further enhancing their economic competitiveness. TES systems could also benefit the electric grid by eliminating the need for peaking plants, as well as by improving the economic performance of baseload NPPs. While TES technologies afford a unique opportunity to address many of these challenges, the applicability of these systems is also complicated by the fact that various advanced NPPs are designed differently, each with its own temperature range, size, operating fluids, and operating conditions. Hence, TES systems face significant barriers to investment, as more information on their compatibility and performance metrics is needed to quantify the advantages provided by each, as well as the challenges these technologies might face if coupled with a particular type of advanced NPP. This study explores the possibility of integrating a wide variety of TES technologies with various categories of advanced NPPs, based on their operating characteristics. To help decision makers, users and developers decide which TES technology is best suited to a particular category of advanced NPPs, this research present a Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) analysis of 10 TES systems that could potentially be coupled with advanced NPPs, which themselves are divided into nine categories based on their operating conditions. Then, each advanced NPP category is evaluated for compatibility with the 10 TES systems by assembling and discussing a database of information concerning 10 engineering questions, defined herein in as figures of merit (FOMs), such as: technology readiness level (TRL), temperature compatibility, energy density, size, cycle frequency, ramp time, realignment frequency, geographic needs, environmental impact, and interventions. By assembling a database of information concerning the TES technologies' compatibility with various advanced NPP systems, this study can help developers acquaint themselves with a particular TES technology before choosing to build a new integrated installation.
Phenomenon Identification and Ranking Table Analysis for Thermal Energy Storage Technologies Integration with Advanced Nuclear Reactors
This report provides an overview of the Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) analysis of thermal energy storage (TES) systems for possible integration with various types of advanced nuclear power plants (NPPs). Advanced NPPs will potentially need to operate in environments where power generation flexibility is more highly valued than the stability or baseload generation capability for conventional demand curves. TES systems would enable NPPs to respond nimbly to market variability and could also position advanced NPPs to participate differently in restructured markets, thus further enhancing their economic competitiveness. TES systems could also benefit the electric grid by eliminating the need for peaking plants, as well as by improving the economic performance of baseload NPPs. While TES technologies afford a unique opportunity to address many of these challenges, the applicability of these systems is also complicated by the fact that various advanced NPPs are designed differently, each with its own temperature range, size, operating fluids, and operating conditions. Hence, TES systems face significant barriers to investment, as more information on their compatibility and performance metrics is needed to quantify the advantages provided by each, as well as the challenges these technologies might face if coupled with a particular type of advanced NPP. This report explores the possibility of integrating a wide variety of TES technologies with various categories of advanced NPPs, based on their operating characteristics. To help users and developers decide which TES technology is best suited to a particular category of advanced NPPs, this research developed a PIRT of 10 TES systems that could potentially be coupled with advanced NPPs, which themselves are divided into nine categories based on their operating conditions. Each advanced NPP category is evaluated for compatibility with the 10 TES systems by assembling and discussing a database of information concerning 10 engineering questions (defined herein in as figures of merit [FOMs]), such as: technology readiness level (TRL), temperature compatibility, energy density, size, cycle frequency, ramp time, realignment frequency, geographic needs, environmental impact, and interventions. By assembling a database of information concerning the TES technologies’ compatibility with various advanced NPP systems, this study can help developers acquaint themselves with a particular TES technology before choosing to build a new integrated installation.
Ultrahigh-power-density flexible piezoelectric energy harvester based on freestanding ferroelectric oxide thin films
Flexible piezoelectric nanogenerators are emerging as a promising solution for powering next-generation flexible electronics by converting mechanical energy into electrical energy. However, traditional ferroelectric ceramics, despite their excellent piezoelectric properties, lack flexibility; while piezoelectric polymers, although highly flexible, have low piezoelectricity. The quest to develop materials that combine high piezoelectricity with exceptional flexibility has thus become a research focus. Herein, we present a breakthrough in this field with the fabrication of freestanding (111)-oriented PbZr 0.52 Ti 0.48 O 3 single crystalline thin films, which exhibit remarkable flexibility and a high converse piezoelectric coefficient (~585 pm/V). This is achieved through water-soluble sacrificial layer to relieve substrate clamping and controlling the crystal orientation to further enhance the piezoelectric response. Our nanogenerators, constructed using these freestanding nanoscale membranes, demonstrate a record-high output power density (~63.5 mW/cm 3 ), excellent flexibility (with a strain tolerance >3.4%), and superior mechanical stability in cycling tests (>60,000 cycles). These advancements pave the way for high-performance, flexible electronic devices utilizing ferroelectric oxide thin films.
Impact of Thermal Plant Operational Flexibility on VRE Curtailment: The Curtailment Paradox
This presentation provides an overview of a previously published paper in Joule "The curtailment paradox in the transition to high solar power systems." The adoption of PV and battery storage has accelerated globally in recent years, driven by rapid cost declines. A corresponding increase in curtailment is anticipated as PV growth continues. This study explores the effect of system flexibility options on curtailment across increasing PV penetration levels. Results highlight a paradox where thermal generator flexibility matters most only at mid-PV penetration levels (25%-40%), and a misalignment exists where PV provides system value by providing operating reserves without sufficient opportunity for monetary compensation.
Optimizing an Integrated Renewable-Electrolysis System
Hydrogen is a versatile energy carrier that is used in a wide variety of chemical and industrial processes. Producing hydrogen using electrolysis can enable integration of multiple sectors including electricity, heating, and industrial sectors; however, the cost of producing hydrogen from electrolysis remains a challenge for encouraging greater adoption. With growing amounts of renewable generation on the California grid, there is downward pressure on wholesale electricity prices, particularly during the afternoon from photovoltaics (PV). These lower, or even potentially negative prices, challenge the business cases for new and existing PV plants. In addition, as the grid transitions to less flexible generation, there is greater need for system flexibility. To help improve the economics for both solar PV and hydrogen production using electrolyzers, we explore the benefit of combining PV and electrolysis systems. The optimal breakeven hydrogen production cost for six unique market participation configurations is calculated at six candidate locations where PV is already installed. The six market configurations include islanded, separated, retail, net energy metering (NEM), hybrid retail/wholesale and wholesale. Using the Revenue Operation and Device Optimization Model (RODeO) model, the optimal breakeven hydrogen price over the lifetime of the equipment is calculated. The cost includes production, storage, and compression in preparation for gaseous delivery trucks. Revenue streams include the sale of hydrogen, low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credits, renewable electricity sold to the grid, and Renewable Energy Credits (REC). The costs included are the electricity costs, capital and fixed operation and maintenance cost (FOM) for the electrolyzer, PV, and storage and compression systems as well as taxes and financing costs. In addition, cost reductions are achieved through retail and wholesale rate optimization, by which electricity is purchased at the lowest price and sold, if possible, at the highest price. For all locations, the breakeven hydrogen production cost results show that, in the order of decreasing cost, the system configurations are islanded (highest), separated, NEM, retail, hybrid retail/wholesale, and wholesale (lowest). The resulting system design balances between the capital and maintenance cost components, the operation costs (i.e., electricity costs) and the additional market revenues. The integration of solar PV and electrolysis is shown to provide a mutually beneficial relationship. For PV, integration with electrolysis offers the potential to hedge against wholesale market price volatility, and integration with electrolysis may offer the potential to defer or avoid transmission investment to deliver power to the point-of-use and instead use it on-site. When compared with SMR without considering any renewable hydrogen premiums, this study finds that PV + Electrolysis systems with current costs are likely not competitive; however, with cost reductions for electrolysis equipment consistent with DOE projections, it was found that systems with wholesale market access would be competitive, largely on account of both low capital costs and low-cost electricity. The electrolysis units can provide greater flexibility than is required based on retail rate optimization, so there is an opportunity for a utility or CAISO to increase system flexibility with PV + Electrolysis systems in return for commensurate compensation. In this way, there are potentially several solutions that fall between the hybrid configuration and the wholesale configuration that could provide sufficient compensation for a PV + Electrolysis unit to compete with SMR while also providing greater flexibility to the grid.
Value of Geothermal Energy Storage for Supply-Side and Demand-Side Applications
This report presents the results of a study examining the value potential for geothermal energy storage (GES), a long-duration energy storage resource that stores thermal and/or geomechanical energy in the subsurface. GES could benefit the overall U.S. power system by temporally shifting electricity generation (supply-side) or meeting building heating and cooling load (demand-side). This report analyzes supply-side and demand-side opportunities independently because of differences in applications and models. Currently there is significant uncertainty about the development costs for GES, with only a limited number of demonstration plants for electric energy storage and building heating and cooling storage developments. In this report, we estimate the value of supply-side and demand-side GES to the bulk power system in the contiguous United States. Because of the significant uncertainty about GES development costs, this analysis does not consider GES deployment costs but instead focuses on the value of GES to the U.S. electricity system. The estimated values of GES provide reference points for economically competitive commercial cost targets. Supply-side GES is modeled as part of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) generation plant in NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model (Ho et al. 2021). In contrast to conventional geothermal plants, which generate constant power, EGS plants have unique features that may allow for in-reservoir energy storage for flexible generation. Demand-side GES for heating and cooling, including seasonal hot and cold storage and short-duration heat pump storage, is incorporated into a price-taker model using Cambium electricity marginal cost projections. To establish an upper bound for the value of GES, analysis focused on favorable scenarios for storage with high generation from zero marginal cost, variable renewable energy resources. High penetrations of variable renewable energy generation can increase hourly electricity price variability, which increases the value of temporal energy arbitrage for storage technologies like GES.
The Hidden Flexibility of the Natural Gas Network for Electric Power Operations: A Case Study of a Near-Miss Winter Event
The U.S. power sector has become increasingly reliant on gas pipeline networks to deliver fuel to natural gas power plants. In addition to supplying relatively low-cost fuel, gas networks offer generators flexibility in their operations through the ability to deliver fuel when needed by using gas storage facilities or linepack if the gas network is at an operating point below its design capacity. However, disruptions or stress events on the gas network - like those occurring in the Northeast and Texas in recent years - can result in limitations on gas availability to generators at times when generation is in short supply. Here we examine a period of stress that occurred in the winter of 2022 in the Western United States. Using data on the region's natural gas pipeline network and electric generators, we build an integrated gas and electric model that closely replicates the actual dispatch of the period. We then evaluate the implications of removing flexibility employed by the gas network operator, which during that period curtailed scheduled gas deliveries to other parties to increase deliveries to natural gas power plants, which requested more gas than initially forecasted. We find that without the flexibility supplied by the gas network operator, there would have been curtailment of gas generation due to gas offtake constraints, requiring the power system operator to redispatch relying on more expensive generation or to potentially shed load. A sensitivity exploring a wind drought further exacerbates the strain, illustrating the potential challenge of managing gas and grid interactions as systems move to higher shares of variable renewable electricity. Based on this example, we discuss potential coordination strategies between the two system operators to ensure that the power system can successfully utilize and rely on the flexibility offered by natural gas networks.
2025 Large Load Literature Review
This literature review catalogs more than 90 publications focused on large loads, and groups the documents and resources thematically into 12 categories, (listed below). The 2026 Large Load Literature Review and Data Sources summary reports are available here: https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/2026-large-load-literature-review -Load forecasting -Data sources -Reliability and resource adequacy -Large load interconnection -Demand flexibility -Generation -Co-location -Data center location/infrastructure -Large load tariffs -Policy options -Maps and tools -Design and operations
Analysis of Fibrous Felts for Flexible Ablators Using Synchrotron Hard X-Ray Micro-Tomography
We analyzed the material properties of low-density felts that are used as substrates for new-generation flexible and conformal carbon/phenolic ablators, and compared them with those of a rigid carbon fiber preform that is used to manufacture rigid carbon/phenolic ablators. Micro-tomography measurements were obtained using synchrotron X-rays, allowing the characterization of the materials microstructure at the scale of the fibers. Using the tomography voxels as computational grids, we computed tortuosity and room temperature conductivity. In addition we performed micro-scale simulations of the oxidation of carbon fibers using a random walk model for oxygen diffusion and a probability law to model surface reactions.
Thermally stable polyimide components for space and commercial applications
The properties and applications of the thermally stable polyimide foams are discussed, together with an investigation of the methods for producing these materials. The qualities of the polyimide foams such as resistance to fire, not emitting smoke below 204 C, not producing incapacitating toxic by-products below 204 C, and resiliency and flexibility from minus 184 C to 315 C are stressed. The thermal, dielectric, induction, and microwave heating methods are discussed, particularly in relation to producing flexible resilient foams, thermal acoustical polyimide foams, and polyimide foam structural materials. It is concluded that the microwave approach shows to be a viable concept for generating flexible, low density cellular materials possessing a homogeneous structure and applicable to the aerospace industry and for commercial uses.
Advanced photovoltaic solar array - Design and performance
This paper reports on the development of an ultralightweight flexible blanket, flatpack, foldout solar array design that can provide 3- to 4-fold improvement on specific power performance of current rigid panel arrays and a factor of two improvement over a first-generation flexible blanket array developed as a forerunner to the Space Station Freedom array. To date a prototype wing has been built with a projected specific power performance of about 138 W/kg at beginning-of-life (BOL) and 93 W/kg end-of-life (EOL) at 12 kW (BOL) for a 10-year geosynchronous (GEO) mission. The prototype wing hardware has been subjected to a series of system-level tests to demonstrate design feasibility. The design of the array is summarized. The major trade studies that led to the selection of the baseline design are discussed. Key system-level and component-level testing are described. Array-level performance projections are presented as a function of existing and advanced solar array component technology for various mission applications.
Energy Flexibility-Environmental Outcomes Tradeoffs Workshop Report and Research Roadmap
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Norway’s Royal Ministry of Petroleum and Energy signed an Annex to a previously signed memorandum of understanding (MOU) in February 2020 to collaborate on hydropower research and development (R&D). This MOU Annex has brought together the DOE’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Water Power Technology Office and the Norwegian Research Center for Hydropower Technology (HydroCen) to plan and coordinate hydropower R&D activities to increase our understanding of hydropower’s role in the future energy grid and how to minimize and mitigate the subsequent environmental impacts. As part of this MOU Annex, hydropower researchers from the U.S. and Norway have come together to conduct collaborative research on hydropower markets and value, hydropower plant capabilities and constraints, monitoring and control technologies, environmental design solutions, environmental impacts and tradeoffs, flexible operation and planning, and technology innovations. This report presents background information on hydropower environmental regulation in the U.S. and Norway and summarizes content and conclusions from this series of two, three-hour workshops on hydropower generation flexibility and environmental outcomes, that included structured discussions used to identify research priorities and collaborative research opportunities.
A Generative Control Capability for a Model-based Executive
This paper describes Burton, a core element of a new generation of goal-directed model-based autonomous executives. This executive makes extensive use of component-based declarative models to analyze novel situations and generate novel control actions both at the goal and hardware levels. It uses an extremely efficient online propositional inference engine to efficiently determine likely states consistent with current observations and optimal target states that achieve high level goals. It incorporates a flexible generative control sequencing algorithm within the reactive loop to bridge the gap between current and target states. The system is able to detect and avoid damaging and irreversible situations, After every control action it uses its model and sensors to detect anomalous situations and immediately take corrective action. Efficiency is achieved through a series of model compilation and online policy construction methods, and by exploiting general conventions of hardware design that permit a divide and conquer approach to planning. The paper presents a formal characterization of Burton's capability, develops efficient algorithms, and reports on experience with the implementation in the domain of spacecraft autonomy. Burton is being incorporated as one of the key elements of the Remote Agent core autonomy architecture for Deep Space One, the first spacecraft for NASA's New Millenium program.
Synthetic Electricity Market Data Generation and HERON Use Case Setup of Advanced Nuclear Reactors Coupled with Thermal Energy Storage Systems
This study evaluates and optimizes advanced nuclear reactors coupled with thermal energy storage (TES) systems in an Integrated Energy System (IES) architecture to enable advanced nuclear power plants (A NPP) to participate in multi-commodity markets, thus enhancing their economic competitiveness. Nuclear-TES coupling scenarios studied herein are designed attenuate the nuclear heat dynamics and defer energy delivery to a later time, enabling the nuclear reactor to continue operating at or near steady-state design conditions as usual while also enabling flexible generation. Three A-NPPs, namely, an advanced light-water reactor (A LWR), a high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) and a liquid-metal fast reactor (LMFR) were selected as the initial use cases for demonstrating the technoeconomic of thermally balanced energy storage coupling design for thermal power extraction. Each of the reactor technologies were evaluated in two different electricity markets. Stochastic optimization approach was adopted which included the evaluation of price signals from the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) market, and Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), using an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) tool and its dispatch optimization plugin, the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON), were used to perform dispatch and capacity optimization, using the price data provided by the ARMA models. The results from the Nuclear-TES use cases will be used to design and characterize dynamic integrated system behavior and feedback.
Collaborative Distribution System Restoration Planning and Real-Time Dispatch Considering Behind-the-Meter DERs
Modern distribution systems are becoming more resilient against power outages thanks to the flexible generation capacity provided by the increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs). Compared to utility-scale DERs, which can be directly controlled by system operators, small-scale, behind-the-meter DERs are much more difficult to coordinate despite being the vast majority. Two major obstacles to the implementation of DERs for service restoration are the coordination of behind-the-meter DERs and the management of uncertainty. In this paper, a novel distribution system restoration strategy is proposed to overcome these two obstacles. The flexibility of be-hind-the-meter DERs is quantified and integrated into the restoration planning models within a hierarchical structure. The model predictive control technique is employed to enable adaptive restoration planning solution adjustments to accommodate fault scenarios and forecast errors. Besides, real-time power dispatch models are proposed to maintain power balance using available DER capability. Comprehensive integration of adaptive restoration planning schemes and real-time dispatch results are achieved through a collaborative restoration framework. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed restoration strategy is verified through a modified IEEE 123-bus system and a real-world utility system.