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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Interpreting machine learning prediction of fire emissions and comparison with FireMIP process-based models

Annual burned areas in the United States have increased 2-fold during the past decades. With more large fires resulting in more emissions of fine particulate matter, an accurate prediction of fire emissions is critical for quantifying the impacts of fires on air quality, human health, and climate. This study aims to construct a machine learning (ML) model with game-theory interpretation to predict monthly fire emissions over the contiguous US (CONUS) and to understand the controlling factors of fire emissions. The optimized ML model is used to diagnose the process-based models in the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) to inform future development. Results show promising performance for the ML model, Community Land Model (CLM), and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator-Interactive Fire And Emission Algorithm For Natural Environments (JULES-INFERNO) in reproducing the spatial distributions, seasonality, and interannual variability of fire emissions over the CONUS. Regional analysis shows that only the ML model and CLM simulate the realistic interannual variability of fire emissions for most of the subregions (r >0.95 for ML and r =0.14~0.70 for CLM), except for Mediterranean California, where all the models perform poorly (r =0.74 for ML and r <0.30 for the FireMIP models). Regarding seasonality, most models capture the peak emission in July over the western US. However, all models except for the ML model fail to reproduce the bimodal peaks in July and October over Mediterranean California, which may be explained by the smaller wind speeds of the atmospheric forcing data during Santa Ana wind events and limitations in model parameterizations for capturing the effects of Santa Ana winds on fire activity. Furthermore, most models struggle to capture the spring peak in emissions in the southeastern US, probably due to underrepresentation of human effects and the influences of winter dryness on fires in the models. As for extreme events, both the ML model and CLM successfully reproduce the frequency map of extreme emission occurrence but overestimate the number of months with extremely large fire emissions. Comparing the fire PM 2.5 emissions from the ML model with process-based fire models highlights their strengths and uncertainties for regional analysis and prediction and provides useful insights into future directions for model improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Biogas Utilization in Refuse Power Plants (BURP 2 )

The BURP 2 project investigated the technical and financial viability of co firing biogas with waste coal for power generation while using carbon capture and sequestration to achieve net negative emissions. A comparative assessment integrating geospatial mapping, technoeconomic analysis, and life cycle analysis was carried out to evaluate retrofitting an existing coal fired facility in West Virginia, versus developing a new greenfield power plant in Kentucky located near a low quality coal resource. The study found that CO 2 capture rates of 90% or higher, in combination with biogas feedstocks such as animal manure, could significantly reduce global warming potential compared to plants using neither biogas nor CO 2 capture systems. Economic feasibility depended heavily on federal tax credits and proximity to fuel sources. In both greenfield and retrofit scenarios, access to biogas played a key role. Because the retrofit site was located close to existing biogas resources, it represented a feasible option, whereas the greenfield site, being far from pipelines or biogas sources, would require prohibitively expensive biogas transport infrastructure. Overall, the research showed that repurposing waste or low-quality coal with renewable biogas and CO 2 capture systems could provide a viable approach for reducing carbon emissions in power production, if biogas resources are easily accessible and available in sufficient quantities.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ecological Insights from Transferable Plant Biomass Mapping across the Arctic using High-resolution Structure-from-Motion and LiDAR Data

Warmer temperatures, permafrost thaw, and increased wildfire activity are driving rapid ecological change across the Arctic, significantly altering plant productivity and aboveground biomass (AGB). These rapid changes highlight the urgent need to improve monitoring of vegetation dynamics in the Earth’s northern ecosystems, where high spatiotemporal heterogeneity occurs at scales finer than those captured by traditional satellite observations. The growing use of Unoccupied Aerial Systems (UASs) presents an opportunity to overcome this limitation. Yet, the diversity of UAS platforms, sensors, and data collection and processing workflows presents challenges for developing standardized, generalizable approaches. To address this challenge, we compiled 672 AGB plots co-located with 183 UAS-based Structure-from-Motion (SfM) or Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) surveys collected across the Arctic. Here, we: (1) evaluated the generalizability of UAS-derived canopy structure derived from high-resolution SfM and LiDAR for estimating AGB, (2) assessed scaling errors and their sources in two recent satellite-based AGB products derived from Landsat and MODIS, and (3) demonstrated the use of high-resolution AGB maps to quantify biomass variation across tundra plant functional types (PFTs) and to monitor post-fire recovery. Our results show that both SfM and LiDAR accurately captured AGB and its variability across tundra PFTs using a Random Forest (RF) model (overall RMSE: 0.336 kg/m2), with mapping performance varying slightly by region and data source. Using UAS-derived AGB maps as a benchmark, we identified systematic biases in satellite-derived AGB products, largely attributable to the magnitude of AGB and structural heterogeneity within coarse-resolution pixels. Applying our model to repeat UAS surveys following a tundra fire on Seward Peninsula, we observed rapid AGB recovery in non-shrub patches, with biomass recovering to pre-fire levels within 2 years. In contrast, shrub patches recovered more slowly, with AGB gains continuing over 2–4 years through both in-patch growth and lateral expansion (via dispersal) into remaining burned areas. Overall, these findings demonstrate the generalizability of UAS-based SfM and LiDAR data for estimating tundra AGB and highlight the potential of our approach to be broadly applied to generate high-quality AGB data for ecological monitoring and model benchmarking across the Arctic.

Yang, Daryl [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000317057823)↗

DOE OSTI2025

ON-OFF neuromorphic ISING machines using Fowler-Nordheim annealers

We introduce NeuroSA, a neuromorphic architecture specifically designed to ensure asymptotic convergence to the ground state of an Ising problem using a Fowler-Nordheim quantum mechanical tunneling based threshold-annealing process. The core component of NeuroSA consists of a pair of asynchronous ON-OFF neurons, which effectively map classical simulated annealing dynamics onto a network of integrate-and-fire neurons. The threshold of each ON-OFF neuron pair is adaptively adjusted by an FN annealer and the resulting spiking dynamics replicates the optimal escape mechanism and convergence of SA, particularly at low-temperatures. To validate the effectiveness of our neuromorphic Ising machine, we systematically solved benchmark combinatorial optimization problems such as MAX-CUT and Max Independent Set. Across multiple runs, NeuroSA consistently generates distribution of solutions that are concentrated around the state-of-the-art results (within 99%) or surpass the current state-of-the-art solutions for Max Independent Set benchmarks. Furthermore, NeuroSA is able to achieve these superior distributions without any graph-specific hyperparameter tuning. For practical illustration, we present results from an implementation of NeuroSA on the SpiNNaker2 platform, highlighting the feasibility of mapping our proposed architecture onto a standard neuromorphic accelerator platform.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Point Cloud Based Mapping of Understory Shrub Fuel Distribution, Estimation of Fuel Consumption and Relationship to Pyrolysis Gas Emissions on Experimental Prescribed Burns

Forest fires spread via production and combustion of pyrolysis gases in the understory. The goal of the present paper is to understand the spatial location, distribution, and fraction (relative to the overstory) of understory plants, in this case, sparkleberry shrub, namely its degree of understory consumption upon burn, and to search for correlations between the degree of shrub consumption to the composition of emitted pyrolysis gases. Data were collected in situ at seven small experimental prescribed burns at Ft. Jackson, an army base in South Carolina, USA. Using airborne laser scanning (ALS) to map overstory tree crowns and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) to characterize understory shrub fuel density, both pre- and postburn estimates of sparkleberry coverage were obtained. Sparkleberry clump polygons were manually digitized from a UAV-derived orthoimage of the understory and intersected with the TLS point cloud-derived rasters of pre- and postburn shrub fuel bulk density; these were compared in relation to overstory crown cover as well as to ground truth. Shrub fuel consumption was estimated from the digitized images; sparkleberry clump distributions were generally found to not correlate well to the overstory tree crowns, suggesting it is shade-tolerant. Moreover, no relationship was found between the magnitude of the fuel consumption and the chemical composition of pyrolysis gases, even though mixing ratios of 25 individual gases were measured.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Radial Compressor Design and Off-Design for Trans-critical CO2 Operating Conditions

Presentation for the The 7th International Supercritical CO2 Power Cycles Symposium, February 21 – 24, 2022, San Antonio, Texas. A multi-staged intercooled centrifugal compressor design is performed for an indirect-fired sCO2 cycle and the design point data are used to generate the performance maps using a 2D mean-line analysis code. Fluid and turbomachinery similarity laws are applied to find an appropriate surrogate ideal gas fluid to be used in the design and performance map generation codes. The performance maps are then scaled back for the sCO2 fluid case using the affinity laws.

Uysal, Selcuk Can↗

DOE OSTI2021

Radial Compressor Design and Off-Design for Trans-critical CO2 Operating Conditions

A multi-staged intercooled centrifugal compressor design is performed for an indirect-fired sCO2 cycle and the design point data are used to generate the performance maps using a 2D mean-line analysis code. Fluid and turbomachinery similarity laws are applied to find an appropriate surrogate ideal gas fluid to be used in the design and performance map generation codes. The performance maps are then scaled back for the sCO2 fluid case using the affinity laws. The developed methodology is validated using the experimental data for a compressor operating at similar inflow conditions.

Uysal, Selcuk Can↗

DOE OSTI2024

The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink

Northern forests are an important carbon sink, but our understanding of the driving factors is limited due to discrepancies between dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and atmospheric inversions. We show that DGVMs simulate a 50% lower sink (1.1 ± 0.5 PgC yr –1 over 2001–2021) across North America, Europe, Russia, and China compared to atmospheric inversions (2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr –1 ). We explain why DGVMs underestimate the carbon sink by considering how they represent disturbance processes, specifically the overestimation of fire emissions, and the lack of robust forest demography resulting in lower forest regrowth rates than observed. We reconcile net sink estimates by using alternative disturbance-related fluxes. We estimate carbon uptake through forest regrowth by combining satellite-derived forest age and biomass maps. We calculate a regrowth flux of 1.1 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 , and combine this with satellite-derived estimates of fire emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 ), land-use change emissions from bookkeeping models (0.9 ± 0.2 PgC yr –1 ), and the DGVM-estimated sink from CO 2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, and climate change (2.2 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 ). The resulting ‘bottom-up’ net flux of 2.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 agrees with atmospheric inversions. The reconciliation holds at regional scales, increasing confidence in our results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Soil Temperature and Moisture within the Kougarok Fire Complex, Kougarok Road Mile Marker 86, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2019-2023

Daily averages of soil temperature and moisture measured once every hour at different heights located at Intensive Monitoring Stations within the Kougarok Fire Complex, Kougarok Road Mile Marker 86 site. Data were retrieved annually from 2019-2023. Package contains 21 *.CSV data files plus a file level metadata *.CSV, data dictionary *.CSV, data file inventory *.CSV, and sensor location site map *.JPG. Data files have header rows, NaN fields indicate invalid or missing data, and negative vertical offsets are above ground.The Kougarok tundra fire complex (KFC) is located north of Nome and the Kigluaik Mountains, near Quartz Creek and the Kougarok River. The site is accessed by foot from the end of the Nome-Taylor Highway (mile marker 86; also called the Kougarok or Beam Road). The KFC burned in six major fires in the decades since 1950 (Alaska Interagency Coordination Center, unpublished data). Lightning ignited five of these fires (1971, 1997, 2015, and 2019) and one was human caused (2002). The mosaic of overlapping fire scars allows for the study of repeat fires in the tundra which, until recently, was not a common phenomenon outside the boreal forest in Alaska. Our reference unburned tundra fire site is south of the KFC located at mile marker 80 of the Nome-Taylor Highway.The two most recent fires are the Mingvk Lake (2015; 21,698 acres burned from 7/27/2015 to 9/28/2015) and Garfield Creek (2019; 422 acres burned from 7/31/2019 to 8/20/19). The Mingvk Lake fire scar includes areas that burned 1-4x (1971, 1997, 2002), while the entirety of the Garfield Creek fire scar has burned 2x previously (1971, 2002).Previous research at the KFC focused on permafrost (Liljedahl et al. 2007; Narita et al. 2015; Iwahana et al. 2016; Tsuyuzaki, Iwahana, and Saito 2017) and vegetation (Narita et al. 2015; Hollingsworth et al. 2021) response to fire. The central Seward Peninsula is characterized by continuous permafrost with a thickness of 15 to 30 m and a mean active layer thickness of 56 cm (Hinzman et al. 2003). Sloping hills with mixed shrub–tussock tundra and tussock tundra vegetation in the uplands are characteristic of the region. Three micrometeorological towers near the Kougarok field site recorded a mean annual temperature of −2.4°C, mean January temperature of −23.1°C, mean July temperature of +11°C, and mean summer rainfall (June–August) of 94 mm from 2000 to 2006 (Liljedahl et al. 2007).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modular Adaptive Packing for Integrally Cooled Absorbers

Process intensification is one cornerstone in ION Clean Energy’s (ION) efforts to lowering CO2 capture cost. ION has modeled, designed, and fabricated an innovative gas-liquid contactor known as Modular Adaptive Packing (MAP). During two successful SBIR Phase I and II projects entitled: “Rapid Design and Testing of Novel Gas-Liquid Contacting Devices for Post-Combustion CO2 Capture via 3D-printing”, ION developed and proved this new technology at bench scale. MAP, a 3D-printed lattice-structured packing, combines the absorber gas/liquid contactor with an innovative in-situ heat-exchanger. Thanks to the capabilities of 3D-printing, the lattice structure of MAP contains hollow channels through which coolant water can be pumped to remove the heat of reaction from CO2 absorption. ION refers to this novel method of heat exchange as intracooling. After 25.4 cm (10 in) diameter MAP modules were fabricated, ION built and tested a packing characterization rig at its pilot facility in Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. To provide baseline results for the characterization rig, ION tested Sulzer’s Mellapak™ 250Y (MP250Y) as a standard structured packing. ION’s MAP was then compared directly to the baseline MP250Y packing to evaluate key indicators including pressure drop, liquid hold-up, and effective area. MAP has a higher pressure drop than MP250Y at the same gas velocities in addition to greater liquid holdup. However, ION found that MAP displays a higher wetting coverage of 93% compared to 65% for MP250Y and reduces shearing forces that result in undesirable droplet formation. Using Optimized Gas Treating’s (OGT) rate-based simulation software ProTreat®, a conceptual evaluation of MAP was modeled for a CO2 absorber using 30 wt% MEA solvent over a range of lean loadings at 90% CO2 capture from a coal-fired power plant. ION modeled a 25-meter column absorber for both the standard MP250Y packing and a hybrid column. The hybrid absorber contained 10 m of MP250Y packing at the top and bottom with the middle 5 meters comprised of MAP. Compared to a traditional intercooled absorber, MAP can remove 22% more heat and increase overall MEA carrying capacity by 4% without increasing overall pressure drop.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Automated Fire Detection for Industrial Settings with Pretrained Convolutional Networks

Early fire detection in industrial environments is critical to preventing equipment damage, personal injury, and operational disruptions. Traditional smoke detectors, while effective, often experience delays due to the time required for smoke to reach sensors, allowing fires to spread. Manual fire watch operations and human surveillance of camera feeds are resource-intensive and prone to human error. To address these challenges, this paper explores the application of convolutional neural networks for automated fire detection, specifically in industrial settings. By leveraging 11 different pre-trained machine vision models from TensorFlow and enhancing them with transfer learning on a custom-built industrial fire dataset, we optimized fire detection performance. Here, we analyzed each machine vision model architecture in terms of its depth, width, and input image resolution, considering both resource requirements and detection accuracy. We further explored the option of combining multiple models into an ensemble classifier to evaluate whether the performance improvements could justify the much greater computational complexity and other practical impacts. A cost-benefit analysis is presented to evaluate the trade-offs between performance and computational expense. Our findings identify that EfficientNetV2L, specifically tailored for industrial applications, provides the optimal balance between costs involved in training and using the model versus the overall fire detection performance. Additionally, we present a qualitative analysis of model performance using the technique of gradient-based class activation mapping to provide explainability by visualizing model decisions.

artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2023

Automatic Rural Road Centerline Detection and Extraction from Aerial Images for a Forest Fire Decision Support System

To effectively manage the terrestrial firefighting fleet in a forest fire scenario, namely, to optimize its displacement in the field, it is crucial to have a well-structured and accurate mapping of rural roads. The landscape’s complexity, mainly due to severe shadows cast by the wild vegetation and trees, makes it challenging to extract rural roads based on processing aerial or satellite images, leading to heterogeneous results. This article proposes a method to improve the automatic detection of rural roads and the extraction of their centerlines from aerial images. This method has two main stages: (i) the use of a deep learning model (DeepLabV3+) for predicting rural road segments; (ii) an optimization strategy to improve the connections between predicted rural road segments, followed by a morphological approach to extract the rural road centerlines using thinning algorithms, such as those proposed by Zhang–Suen and Guo–Hall. After completing these two stages, the proposed method automatically detected and extracted rural road centerlines from complex rural environments. This is useful for developing real-time mapping applications.

Lourenço, Miguel (ORCID:0000000157673394)↗

DOE OSTI2023

IRA Energy Community Data Layers

Data, geospatial data resources, and the linked mapping tool and web services reflect data for two types of potentially qualifying energy communities: 1) Census tracts and directly adjoining tracts that have had coal mine closures since 1999 or coal-fired electric generating unit retirements since 2009. These census tracts qualify as energy communities. 2) Metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and non-metropolitan statistical areas (non-MSAs) that are energy communities for 2023 and 2024, along with their fossil fuel employment (FFE) status. Additional information on energy communities and related tax credits can be accessed on the Interagency Working Group on Coal & Power Plant Communities & Economic Revitalization Energy Communities website (https://energycommunities.gov/energy-community-tax-credit-bonus/). Use limitations: these spatial data and mapping tool may not be relied upon by taxpayers to substantiate a tax return position or for determining whether certain penalties apply and will not be used by the IRS for examination purposes. The mapping tool does not reflect the application of the law to a specific taxpayer’s situation, and the applicable Internal Revenue Code provisions ultimately control.

Census Tract↗

DOE OSTI2025

Restoring Historic Forest Disturbance Frequency Would Partially Mitigate Droughts in the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains

Forest thinning and prescribed fire are expected to improve the climate resilience and water security of forests in the western U.S., but few studies have directly modeled the hydrological effects of multi-decadal landscape-scale forest disturbance. By updating a distributed process-based hydrological model (DHSVM) with vegetation maps from a distributed forest ecosystem model (LANDIS-II), we simulate the water resource impacts of forest management scenarios targeting partial or full restoration of the pre-colonial disturbance return interval in the central Sierra Nevada mountains. In a fully restored disturbance regime that includes fire, thinning, and insect mortality, reservoir inflow increases by 4%–9% total and 8%–14% in dry years. At sub-watershed scales (10–100 km2), thinning dense forests can increase streamflow by >20% in dry years. In a thinner forest, increased understory transpiration compensates for decreased overstory transpiration. Consequentially, 73% of streamflow gains are attributable to decreased overstory rain and snow interception loss. Thinner forests can increase headwater peak flows, but reservoir-scale peak flows are almost exclusively influenced by climate. Uncertainty in future precipitation causes high uncertainty in future water yield, but the additional water yield attributable to forest disturbance is about five times less sensitive to annual precipitation uncertainty. This partial decoupling of the streamflow disturbance response from annual precipitation makes disturbance especially valuable for water supply during dry years. Our study can increase confidence in the water resource benefits of restoring historic forest disturbance frequencies in the central Sierra Nevada mountains, and our modeling framework is widely applicable to other forested mountain landscapes.

Boardman, Eli N. [University of Nevada, Reno, NV (↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Global Methane Observation System to Reduce Uncertainty for Anthropogenic and Natural Sources and Sinks for Detecting and Attributing Climate Feedbacks

Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations are accelerating global warming as net emissions increase. Observing systems that quantify sources remain too sparse and fragmented to detect trends—especially in remote regions where climate‐driven natural emissions may be rising. We provide a framework for quantifying uncertainty reductions through the implementation of a global ecosystem‐methane observing system designed to: (i) substantially lower uncertainty in sectoral and regional emissions, (ii) separate co‐occurring anthropogenic and natural fluxes, and (iii) trend detection at regional scales to verify mitigation progress and provide early warning of natural feedbacks. Using bottom‐up inventories and process‐model ensembles for 2014–2023, we show that anthropogenic emissions remain uncertain by ∼32% globally, while natural sources—tropical and boreal‐arctic wetlands, fires, and inland waters—carry far larger uncertainties (+ 70%) and trend uncertainties reaching ∼200%. Additional observations must match spatial emission structure to increase observability of emissions: high‐resolution satellite constellations for point sources combined with expanded flux networks and wetland mapping for diffuse sources, and denser ground‐based atmospheric column measurements to restore observability in under‐sampled tropics and high latitudes. Notional analyses indicate that targeted additions of flux towers and ∼20 in situ atmospheric column concentration instruments per key tropical region could reduce continental‐scale uncertainties at modest cost. Conceptual illustration of a Global Ecosystem Methane Observing System (GEM‐OS) integrating satellites, aircraft, atmospheric networks, and ecosystem measurements to quantify methane emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. The multi‐scale observing framework improves source attribution, reduces uncertainty in regional methane budgets, and enables early detection of climate‐driven feedbacks from wetlands, fires, permafrost, agriculture, and fossil‐fuel emissions.

Ciais, P↗

DOE OSTI2022

Boiling Transitions During Droplet Contact on Superheated Nano/Micro-Structured Surfaces

Manipulating surface topography is one of the most promising strategies for increasing the efficiency of numerous industrial processes involving droplet contact with superheated surfaces. In such scenarios, the droplets may immediately boil upon contact, splash and boil, or could levitate on their own vapor in the Leidenfrost state. In this work we report the outcomes of water droplets coming in gentle contact with designed nano/micro-textured surfaces at a wide range of temperatures as observed using high-speed optical and X-ray imaging. Further, we report a paradoxical increase in the Leidenfrost temperature ($T_{\text{LFP}}$) as the texture spacing is reduced below a critical value (~10 μm) that represents a minima in $T_{\text{LFP}}$. Although droplets on such textured solids appear to boil upon contact, our studies suggest that their behavior is dominated by hydrodynamic instabilities implying that the increase in $T_{\text{LFP}}$ may not necessarily lead to enhanced heat transfer. On such surfaces, the droplets display a new regime characterized by splashing accompanied by a vapor jet penetrating through the droplets before they transition to the Leidenfrost state. We provide a comprehensive map of boiling behavior of droplets over a wide range of texture spacings that may have significant implications towards applications such as electronics cooling, spray cooling, nuclear reactor safety and containment of fire calamities.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Uinta Basin CarbonSAFE II: Storage Complex Feasibility (Final Report)

The primary objective of this CarbonSAFE Phase II project was to establish the technical and commercial feasibility of a commercial-scale CO 2 geological storage complex for Deseret Power Electric Cooperative Bonanza Power Plant and other CO 2 sources in the northeast Uinta Basin, Utah, with the goal to securely store at least 50 million metric tons of captured CO 2 and accelerate CO 2 capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) deployment. The project team established high-potential technical and commercial feasibility for a storage site within the east Uinta Basin (Utah), in the Cretaceous sandstones (Frontier, Dakota, and Buckhorn), Entrada Sandstone, Nugget Sandstone, and/or Weber Sandstone southwest of the Bonanza coal-fired power plant. This project collected and analyzed state-of-the-art data to characterize the storage complex consistent with Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) permitting standards. The team conducted extensive analog studies, outcrop mapping, and data sampling, which largely contributed to understanding the subsurface lithology and facies. Existing data were obtained and assessed from Utah Division of Oil, Gas, and Mining (DOGM), Utah Geological Survey (UGS), Colorado Geological Survey (CGS), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and EPA. These data were analyzed using state-of-the-art CCUS technologies for Societal Considerations, Site Characterization, Modeling and Simulations, Risk Assessment, Management and Monitoring, potential Underground Injection Control (UIC) Class VI Well Permitting, and Technical/Economic Feasibility. Through these high-resolution data collection and feasibility studies, this project was expected to provide a reference for initiating Underground Injection Control (UIC) and other commercial-scale geological storage permitting processes in the Western United States, ultimately contributing to the nation's decarbonization goals through low-risk, cost-effective commercial-scale carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) projects.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Theoretical estimates of flammability bounds for thin condensed fuel diffusion flames in microgravity using detailed models of chemistry and radiation

Recently, U-shape flammability maps have been constructed showing minimal oxygen vs. flame strain for opposed flame spread in micro-gravity by Olson and Ferkul. The U-shape defines the limiting flammability bounds from radiative extinction and flame blow-off. Here, the minimum of the U corresponds to the minimum possible oxidizer concentration where burning can occur, and is an important quantity of interest for fire safety. While high strain extinction bounds have been well analyzed, low strain radiative extinction has not. To estimate low strain extinction, in this study an analytical theory is developed based on thin flame theory coupled with a heat and mass transfer model for solid fuels. A reaction progress variable based on the Damköhler number is adapted in the theory to account for incomplete combustion at high strain rates and enable the capturing of the full flammability map. The analytical model is compared to a one dimensional numerical model w/ detailed chemical kinetics and coupled radiation heat transfer in planar and spherical geometries. The flammability maps are then qualitatively compared to experimental extinguishment data compiled by Olson and Ferkul for cylindrical rods of PMMA showing similar trends. The results show the newly developed analytics capture the radiative extinction bound compared to the numerical model and qualitatively agrees with microgravity data.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗