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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Energy Storage Improves Power Plant Flexibility and Economic Performance

Most existing coal-fired power plants were designed for sustained operation at full load to maximize efficiency, reliability, and revenue, as well as to operate air pollution control devices at design conditions. Depending on plant type and design, these plants can adjust output within a fixed range in response to plant operating or market conditions. The need for flexibility driven by increased penetration of variable and non-dispatchable power generation, such as wind and solar, is shifting the traditional mission profile of thermoelectric power plants in three ways: more frequent shutdowns when market or grid conditions warrant, more aggressive load ramp rates (rate of output change), and a lower minimum sustainable load, which provides a wider operating range and helps avoid costly plant shutdowns. Recent studies have shown that the flexibility of a coal-fired power plant can be improved by energy storage. The objective of this work was to analyze a set of energy storage options and determine their impact on the flexibility and economics of a representative coal-fired power plant. The effect of three energy storage systems integrated with a coal power plant on plant flexibility and economics was investigated. The results obtained in this project show that energy storage systems integrated with a thermal power plant improve plant flexibility and participation in the energy and ancillary services markets, which improves plant financial performance.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electronic Waste (E-Waste) Recycling: Barriers and Opportunities for State, Local, and Tribal Governments

Electronic waste, or e-waste, encompasses end-of-life electrical and electronic equipment, including computers, monitors, televisions, printers, cell phones, household appliances with electronic components, and small consumer devices containing batteries or circuitry. E-waste is one of the fastest-growing components of the U.S. waste stream, with nearly 8 million tons generated in 2022. E-waste presents two related public-interest considerations. First, e-waste contains economically and strategically important materials: base metals (copper, aluminum, iron, steel), precious metals (gold, silver, platinum group metals), and critical materials such as rare earth elements, gallium, and indium that appear on the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) 2025 List of Critical Minerals. Second, many electronic devices contain hazardous constituents - including lead, mercury, cadmium, and brominated flame retardants - as well as rechargeable batteries that can pose fire risks during handling. Effective management of these constituents helps protect workers, communities, and the environment. In the United States, it is estimated that less than 20% of e-waste is formally collected and recycled, leaving over 6 million tons landfilled or otherwise unrecovered. This fact sheet provides state and local decision-makers an overview of (1) e-waste composition and recoverable materials, (2) technology pathways used to recover those materials, and (3) examples of operational and partnership structures used to provide e-waste recycling capacity in the United States. It is intended to complement existing collection-program guidance available through U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other sources.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fire Resistance Development for UL 790 Burning Brand Test (CRADA Final Report)

Class A burning brand (UL 790) tests are used to determine the roof covering's effectiveness against severe exposure to external fire. Unfortunately, these tests can be costly to repeatedly perform when iteratively developing new materials/designs. The NREL team will work with the R&D Lab to develop and deploy computational tools to facilitate rapid development of roofing materials for the UL 790 standard test.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wildfire‐Induced Losses of Soil Particulate and Mineral‐Associated Organic Carbon Persist for Over 4 Years in a Chaparral Ecosystem

ABSTRACT Wildfires can lower soil carbon (C) stocks directly through combustion, but also indirectly during post‐fire recovery if microbial C demands outpace photosynthetic C inputs. However, how much C is respired by soil microorganisms post‐fire may depend on wildfire effects on particulate organic carbon (POC; mostly plant material accessible to microbes) and/or mineral‐associated organic carbon (MAOC; considered C protected by minerals from decomposers), meaning assessment of wildfire impacts on these pools is necessary to predict microbial decomposition rates and, thus, the fate of soil C. Here, we measured POC, MAOC, pyrogenic organic matter C, plant cover, extracellular enzyme activity (EEA), and microbial community abundance and composition 17 days, and 1, 3, and 4 years after the Holy Fire burned 94 km 2 of fire‐adapted chaparral. The wildfire immediately decreased POC by 50% (from 51 ± 21 to 26 ± 6 g C kg −1 ) and MAOC by 33% (from 9.3 ± 0.9 to 6.3 ± 0.9 g C kg −1 ), consistent with MAOC being less vulnerable to loss than POC. POC decreased by another 38% 1 year post‐fire, consistent with increases in microbial abundance and EEA suggesting increased microbial decomposition. Between 1 and 4 years after the fire, cover of the dominant shrub (Arctostaphylos glandulosa) increased from 3.9% ± 1.6% to 16% ± 5.4% (compared to 58% ± 4.6% in unburned plots), marking the end of net soil C losses. Still, soil C did not increase between 1 and 4 years post‐fire, suggesting plant C inputs did not outpace microbial respiration, a finding consistent with isotopically heavier C from microorganisms raising bulk soil δ 13 C values. As global changes favor increases in wildfire frequency and severity, C losses via combustion and decomposition may outpace plant C inputs during the first 4 years post‐fire in chaparral, slowing the replenishment of soil C stocks.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Effects of Varying Pre-Chamber Geometry in a Heavy-Duty Natural Gas Optical Engine under Dilution Conditions

Pre-chamber combustion is an advanced ignition strategy that has been shown to enhance spark ignition (SI) combustion stability in natural gas (NG) engines by providing distributed ignition sites from turbulent jets and enhancing main-chamber turbulence. Pre-chamber combustion has been proven especially advantageous compared to SI in ultra-lean and dilute operating conditions. This work involves experimental investigation of the effects of varying passive pre-chamber nozzle configuration on pre-chamber and main chamber combustion under simulated exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) dilution (0 and 20%) conditions in a heavy-duty, single-cylinder, optically accessible NG engine at stoichiometric fuel-air ratio. Pre-chamber nozzle configurations include four pre-chambers with constant nozzle area to pre-chamber volume ratio (A/V) with different nozzle sizes and orientations and one configuration with larger nozzles. The optical engine is operated in a skip-fire sequence consisting of 18 motored cycles followed by two consecutive fired cycles to elucidate the effect of combustion residuals (internal EGR) on combustion evolution. Pressure-based diagnostics are used to monitor pre-chamber and subsequent main chamber combustion, and optical diagnostics include high-speed OH* chemiluminescence to visualize the development of pre-chamber jets and the resulting ignition of the main chamber charge. Heat release analysis of the in-cylinder pressure data indicates that a faster pre-chamber pressure rise does not always translate into faster main-chamber combustion. The pre-chamber with the smallest nozzle diameter produced the highest pre-chamber pressure rise and fastest combustion under non-diluted conditions. However, dilution delays the main chamber ignition for smaller nozzles despite a comparable rise in pre-chamber pressure compared to configurations with larger nozzles. This effect is more pronounced for cycles with in-cylinder combustion residuals in addition to external dilution. Additionally, it was observed that pre-chambers with swirling nozzles have a faster pressure rise in the pre-chamber and main chamber under dilute conditions. Optical diagnostics suggest that the main reason for the delay between the pre-chamber pressure rise and main-chamber combustion lies in jet quenching and delayed re-ignition, which can even lead to misfire if jets emitted from small nozzles combined with dilution fail to re-ignite.

Dhotre, Akash [University Of Minnesota-Twin Cities↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temporal persistence of postfire flood hazards under present and future climate conditions in southern Arizona, USA

Changes to soil hydraulic properties that reduce infiltration capacity following fire can increase flash flood risks. These risks are exacerbated by rainfall intensification associated with a warming climate. However, the potential effects of climate-change-driven rainfall intensification on postfire floods remain largely unexplored. Using rainfall and runoff observations from a 49.4 km 2 watershed in southern Arizona, USA, and a hydrologic model (KINEROS2), we examined the temporal evolution following a historic fire of three crucial hydrologic parameters: soil saturated hydraulic conductivity (K sp ), net capillary drive (G p ), and hydraulic roughness (n c ). We explored how the effect of fire on these parameters may influence peak flow under future climate scenarios derived from CMIP6, specifically the medium emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) and high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Results demonstrate an increase in K sp from 11 mm h −1 in the first postfire year to 60 mm h −1 in postfire year 3. G p similarly increased from 19 mm in the first postfire year to 30 mm in the third, while nc was relatively constant. The highest simulated Q p occurred in the first postfire year. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the likelihood of a 100-year flood is projected to be twice as large by the middle of the century relative to its historical magnitude. Simulations further indicate that the maximum expected discharge associated with a postfire flood, as derived from historical data, could be triggered by a 10-year rainstorm under the SSP5-8.5 scenario by the late century. Simulations also demonstrate that rainfall intensification will lead to greater persistence of elevated flood hazards following fire by the late century under both the SSP2-4.5 and the SSP5-8.5 scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Flame retardant biogenic building insulation materials from hemp fiber

Biogenic thermal insulation materials are in high demand because of its carbon-sequestration nature. However, high flammability, moisture condensation, and relatively high thermal conductivity of biogenic material are major concerns for sustainable building applications. In this study, we report the fire-retardant cellulose xerogel insulation nanocomposites derived from hemp fiber recycling and silica xerogel, in which the boric acid treatment improves its fire retardancy. The as-prepared materials show a low thermal conductivity of 31.3 mW/m K, high flexural modulus of 665 MPa, hydrophobicity with the water contact angle of 115°, and fire retardancy with 30% weight loss over a period of burning time 10 min. Overall, this work provides an effective method for the synthesis of fire-retardant biogenic thermal insulation materials and shows a promising way for next-generation bio-based insulation materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Effect of soot concentration on radiative transport in a 2 m JP-8 pool fire

Hubbard et al. (2024) investigated conjugate heat transfer in a 7.9 m JP-8 pool fire, utilizing both heavily sooting and non-sooting fuel models. Their findings indicated that all models produced pool radiative heat fluxes within the measurement uncertainty for large-scale outdoor experiments. This study aims to further investigate the influence of soot concentration on radiative transport. To this end, Large Eddy Simulations (LES) of a 2 m diameter JP-8 pool fire were conducted, employing four turbulent combustion chemistry models: the Eddy Dissipation Concept (EDC) and three variants of flamelet model. Additionally, three variations of the one-equation subgrid scale turbulence kinetic energy model, and multiple mesh resolutions were utilized. The primary validation metrics were pool radiative heat flux and plume radiative fraction, with simulation data compared to experimental results published by Blanchat et al. (2010). The EDC model produced high soot concentrations near the pool surface, resulting in a significant shielding effect. In contrast, the flamelet combustion model has different kinetic limiters for soot production, leading to soot formation higher in the flame, where it can be more readily oxidized. Flamelet models incorporating both acetylene and benzene contributions to soot growth demonstrated better agreement with experimental data. To assess the sensitivity of pool radiative heat flux to soot mass concentration, we used a one-dimensional approximation over a wide range of soot concentrations and compared it to three-dimensional solutions obtained using Discrete Ordinates. Furthermore, this analysis illustrates the impacts of soot shielding and Turbulence Radiation Interactions (TRI), with TRI emission enhancement factors predicted to be in the range of 3–5 near the edges of the plume.

Computational fluid dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-Temperature Oxidation Behavior of Wrought and Additive Manufactured H282 in Direct-Fired Supercritical CO2 Power Cycle Environments

Materials selection is a key concern for corrosion resistance in high temperature and pressure direct-fired supercritical CO2 power cycles. The effect of elevated pressure on corrosion resistance can be critical, as impurities within the supercritical fluid such as H2O and O2 can result in additional corrosion behaviors. Utilizing additive manufacturing (AM) methods for construction of power cycle components requiring both compact and complex designs could be advantageous. AM H282 produced by laser powder bed fusion was exposed to direct-fired conditions (95CO2 – 4H2O – 1 O2) at 750 °C at both atmospheric pressure and supercritical conditions (20 MPa) for up to 4,000 hours. Oxidation behavior, sub-surface carbide formation, and chromia scale volatilization was dependent upon AM preparation techniques and surface modifications. These results are discussed in terms of the potential compatibility issues that may arise when using AM alloys in high temperature regions of direct-fired sCO2 power cycles, particularly for thin-walled components.

Carney, Casey↗
DOE OSTI2025

NFPA Distributed Energy Resources Safety Training (DERST) For Emergency Responders

The National Fire Protection Association, with support from the Department of Energy, executed a multi-year initiative to develop, enhance, and disseminate Distributed Energy Resources Safety Training (DERST) tools for U.S. emergency responders. As Distributed Energy Resources (DER)—such as solar photovoltaics, battery energy storage systems (ESS), electric vehicles (EVs), and associated infrastructure—become increasingly prevalent, the NFPA identified a critical need for up-to-date standardized, accessible, and effective safety training tailored for the fire service and related public safety professionals. The project delivered a comprehensive suite of educational resources to improve responders’ abilities to safely manage DER-related incidents. This included: • Revised Modular Training Courses: Updated classroom-based DER safety courses, now modular and accessible nationwide through fire academies and the North American Fire Training Directors (NAFTD) network. • Live Burn Testing & Research: A full-scale controlled burn of a DER-equipped residential structure provided real-world data and insights, forming the basis for updated best practices. • A Gamified Simulation Tool – Firefighters Incident Response Simulation Tool (FIRST): A first-of-its-kind, multiplayer, scenario-based simulation using the Unreal Engine 5.0 to train responders in a realistic virtual, multi-DER incident environment. • Field Familiarization Software Tools & Prop Guide: Digital DER field familiarization evolutions software guide and a prop development manual to support field-based DER training exercises, enhancing responders' hands-on familiarity with DER infrastructure and collaboration on virtual incident responses. • National Dissemination Strategy: Strategic partnerships with NAFTD, Vector Solutions, and others enabled wide-scale distribution, with over 5,000 departments accessing resources and 1,100+ departments adopting the simulator in the first seven months. Also provided a web portal for easy access to all training and simulation programs developed under this grant for the U.S. responder community. Key findings from the project—particularly from the burn test—led to paradigm shifts in fire response tactics. For example, traditional approaches to garage fires may be hazardous if DERs are present, due to explosive off gassing and thermal runaway risks. The new training emphasizes scene assessment, stand-off approaches, thermal imaging verification, and careful post-incident cooling of DER components to prevent reignition. This initiative has had a significant national impact, raising awareness, enhancing preparedness, and supporting safer DER incident response practices. Significant engagement from the media, public safety organizations, and PBS coverage has further amplified the reach and adoption of NFPA’s DER safety training, tools, and simulations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of fire on chemical properties and respiration of boreal forest soils

We collected both organic-rich and sandy soil cores from 12 sites (site_location_and_texture.csv) within Wood Buffalo National Park, Alberta, Canada. Laboratory burns were conducted by exposing intact soil cores to 60 kW m^-2 in a mass loss calorimeter to simulate boreal forest crown fires in order to measure the effects of burning (temp_data.csv) on soil properties including pH, total C, and total nitrogen (N) (metadata.csv). We used 70-day soil incubations and two-pool exponential decay models to characterize the impacts of burning and burn-induced changes in soil properties on soil respiration (soil_moisture_at_end_of_incubation.csv; soil_mass_at_end_of_incubation.csv; respiration_data.csv). Laboratory burns successfully captured a range of soil temperatures that were realistic for natural wildfire events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Virtual Reality for Shoot/No-Shoot Decision Training in Law Enforcement: A Literature Review and Research Agenda

Virtual reality (VR) can materially improve “shoot / no-shoot” (SNS) training by giving officers realistic, repeatable practice making high-stakes decisions under pressure. Traditional tools—live-fire ranges and video simulators—build basics, but they cannot adapt to each officer in real time or fully mirror the complexity of the field. VR closes that gap by creating immersive scenarios that are safer, more flexible, easier to scale across units, and able to capture objective performance data. SNS decisions are not just about marksmanship; they rely on perception, judgment, memory, and the ability to hold fire when a threat is uncertain. Effective training therefore needs realism, decision complexity, and branching outcomes that reflect the true consequences of choices. These elements strengthen recognition of hostile intent while reducing false positives and building the self-control required in ambiguous situations. VR brings specific advantages: dynamic environments, full-body interaction, and the ability to measure performance with precision—enabling targeted feedback and better transfer of learning to the street. At the same time, responsible deployment must address scenario quality (credible environments and behaviors), lawful decision models, and user wellbeing (appropriate stress levels, comfort, and safety). Sandia’s VIPER Lab is positioned to lead this work. The team combines human-performance science, AI/ML, and VR/AR development with a deep equipment bench (e.g., omnidirectional treadmill, eye-tracking, haptics, multiple HMDs). This ecosystem supports building and validating next-generation SNS training that is immersive, measurable, and trustworthy. Bottom line: Investment in VR-enabled SNS training that blends evidence-based design with careful validation and legal safeguards is expected to pay off in safer, more consistent decision-making and improved community trust, delivered through training that is practical to deploy at scale.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

Passive Wireless Sensors for Realtime Temperature and Corrosion Monitoring of Coal Boiler Components Under Flexible Operation (Final Technical Report)

Researchers at West Virginia University (WVU) propose to demonstrate inexpensive wireless, high-temperature sensors for real-time monitoring of the temperature and corrosion of metal components, which are commonly used in coal-fired boilers. This study presents the development of cost-effective wireless high-temperature sensors for real-time temperature and corrosion monitoring in coal-fired boilers' metal components. The focus is on fabricating and evaluating chipless radio-frequency identification (RFID) sensors capable of operating between 25-1300 ºC. Efforts were directed towards designing passive RFID sensor and interrogator antenna with a broad frequency range, optimizing a microstrip patch antenna sensor integrated into a "peel-and-stick" format for efficient application to various metal specimens without altering their geometry. Additionally, this research aimed to assess the sensor responses under accelerated high-temperature conditions, correlating corrosion and cracking mechanisms with sensor data. An investigation of through-wall data acquisition techniques was also planned, facilitating unobtrusive monitoring of sensor responses housed within metal enclosures. Ultimately, this work sought to establish a robust passive wireless sensor system for the continuous health monitoring of metal components in operational settings, thereby contributing to enhanced safety and efficiency in coal-fired power plants.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy Improvements of Fire Station 71

Since 2018, the City of Shawnee, Kansas has completed two phases of the State of Kansas Facility Conservation Improvement Program (FCIP), an initiative that guarantees operational cost and energy savings through targeted construction improvements on City facilities and infrastructure. The City is currently in the third phase of this FCIP, where one of the projects included an investment in energy improvements for Fire Station 71 (FS 71). The City partnered with Navitas, an Energy Service Company (ESCO), to implement a Photovoltaic Solar Array on FS71. The purpose of this project was to invest in sustainable building improvements with Energy Conservation Measures (ECM) to bring cost savings to the City and to provide sustainable benefits to the residents of Shawnee. In the first task of the project, Navitas collaborated with the City of Shawnee and the Community Development Department to determine the optimal layout and schedule for the installation of the solar array on FS 71. In the second task of the project, Navitas installed the 99.8 kW DC Photovoltaic solar array system. This system installation comprised of racking, inverters, optimizers, load center, and disconnect, which were all installed at a total ECM price of $\$$247,948. The third task focused on start-up and commissioning of the array. Navitas installed a real-time data analytics information management system integrated with utility meters, which evaluates the operations of the utility system and verifies operation of equipment and ensures optimum operation for energy efficiency. In the final task of this project, this analytics system was used for monitoring and verification, which will continue to be used to evaluate the success of the project for the coming years. The primary goal of the project was to install the 99.8 kW DC PV solar array at FS 71 to demonstrate the viability of solar energy systems in essential municipal facilities. Fire stations are energy demanding structures, as they require a constant intake of power and have a high baseline energy usage. The success of solar arrays on a fire station exemplifies their energy efficiency and effectiveness and displays their potential for application on other city facilities. By installing a solar array at such a facility, the City sought not only to offset electricity usage but also to serve as a model for ECMs in other municipal facilities and infrastructure projects. From an economic standpoint, this project demonstrates the feasibility of renewable energy at the municipal level. The total project cost of $\$$247,948 was split evenly between city funds and award funding, minimizing financial risk while ensuring guaranteed long-term savings. Any excess savings that are beyond the guaranteed minimums remain with the city, which enables future investment in sustainable energy initiatives. This project provides many benefits to the public. In addition to reducing the environmental footprint of city operations, it lowers taxpayer-funded utility spending and improves the energy security of a critical facility. The knowledge gained from this implementation motivates the City to focus on similar efforts across other public facilities in future FCIP phases and other City projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hanford Site Post-Fire Vegetation Monitoring Report for Calendar Year 2025

The Hanford Site and the surrounding greater Columbia Basin is comprised of an expanse of shrub-steppe habitats that provides exceptional ecological value to plants and animals. The U.S. Department of Energy, Hanford Field Office (HFO)-managed portion of the Hanford Site, referred to from herein as Central Hanford, has experienced repeated wildfires resulting in profound, often adverse, effects on the landscape. This report summarizes these fires and fire monitoring efforts that occurred in calendar year (CY) 2025 and analyzes the post-fire vegetation recovery in restored areas to inform future post-fire response actions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Surfactant templated biogenic nanoporous silica thermal insulation composite

Carbon-sequestration biogenic insulation materials offer a promising solution for sustainable and energy-efficient buildings. However, minimizing energy-intensive manufacturing processes and ensuring a uniform microstructure are essential to achieve widespread application. In this work, we introduce cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB) surfactant as both synthesis and dispersion template for nanoporous silica to create biogenic straw-based thermal insulation composites. As the amount of nanoporous silica increases to 72 wt%, the elastic insulation composite dried using the solvent exchange method exhibits a density of 0.058 g cm –3 , a thermal conductivity of 30.3 mW m –1 K –1 and a flexural modulus of 3.96 MPa, while demonstrating materials circularity and fire retardance. The use of CTAB surfactant effectively captures nanoporous silica, preventing its loss during manufacturing and enhancing the homogeneity and dispersion of the silica within the composite. In addition, the results show that the ethanol solvent exchange drying at ambient conditions provides the optimum thermal insulation performance with less energy consumption compared to freeze-drying.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Biomass burning aerosol radiative effects in the Southeast Atlantic depend strongly on meteorological forcing method

Biomass burning aerosols (BBAs) from African fires may strongly impact Earth’s radiation budget in the southeast Atlantic (SEA), but the sign and magnitude of the overall radiative effect (RE) remain uncertain. Aerosol–climate models are needed to separately quantify direct, indirect, and semi-direct REs. Here, we evaluate improved simulations with the UK Met Office's Unified Model and explore REs resulting from various methods used to match observed meteorology (nudging or running forecasts reinitialized at different frequencies). REs are calculated as differences in radiative fluxes between simulations with and without smoke emissions and with and without aerosol absorption. All model setups agree on net warming for the SEA dominated by the direct effect. Simulated smoke, clouds, and the direct effect agree better with observations than previous studies using the same model, though biases in aerosol extinction and liquid water path remain. Changes in cloud droplet number concentration due to BBA self-lofting influence how cleanly we can separate cloud effects into semi-direct and indirect effects. Total RE, which remains unaffected, ranges from +3.0 to +7.9 W m −2 . The 4.9 W m −2 spread arises mainly from simulated semi-direct effects. Forecasts three days long or less probably do not allow time for plausible differences in boundary layer properties due to semi-direct effects to accumulate. Free running simulations with and without smoke accumulate differences in meteorology that are likely spurious “butterfly effects”. We recommend future research quantifying BBA REs over weeks to months to use meteorological forcing techniques that allow aerosol absorption to affect the boundary layer.

Giuffrida, Eric [Carnegie Mellon University, Pitts↗
DOE OSTI2024

Convolutional Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process and its Application to Wildfire Ignition Risk Quantification for Power Delivery Networks

To quantify wildfire ignition risks on power delivery networks, the current practice predominantly relies on the empirically calculated fire danger indices, which may not well capture the effects of dynamically changing environmental factors. This article proposes a spatio-temporal point process model, known as the Convolutional Non-homogeneous Poisson Process (cNHPP), and applies the model to quantify wildfire ignition risks for power delivery networks. The proposed model captures both the current (i.e., instantaneous) and cumulative (i.e., historical) effects of key environmental processes (i.e., covariates) on wildfire risks, as well as the spatio-temporal dependency among different segments of the power delivery network. The computation and interpretation of the intensity function are thoroughly investigated. We apply the proposed approach to estimate wildfire ignition risks on major transmission lines in California, using historical fire data, meteorological and vegetation data obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Here, a comprehensive comparison study is performed to show the applicability and predictive capability of the proposed approach.

Non-homogeneous Poisson Process↗