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DOE OSTI2025

CO2 Storage Economic Analysis: CarbonSAFE Use Case

Poster on “CO2 Storage Economic Analysis: CarbonSAFE Use Case” for the CCUS 2025 conference held in Houston, Texas March 3-5, 2025. The cost of designing, permitting, constructing, operating, and closing a CO2 storage project is of vital importance to project developers. The National Energy Technology Laboratory has developed the NRAP/SMART Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) Model to provide quantitative cost-based insights to support developers planning CO2 injection and storage projects. This study presents a collaborative economic analysis applying TALES with data from the San Juan Basin CarbonSAFE Phase III project led by the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology to estimate potential costs incurred during the implementation of a real-world commercial-scale carbon storage project. Scenario analysis was implemented in which different operational and cost attributes were varied and the associated cost implications observed. Key results data and project cost summary metrics, first-year breakeven price of CO2 ($/tonne) and net present value (NPV), are presented for base and alternative cases. Output provides a unique perspective for project stakeholders towards evaluating the influence of different operational strategies and financing approaches on overall project cost and financial viability.

carbon storage↗

NASA NTRS1991

Future mission studies: Forecasting solar flux directly from its chaotic time series

The mathematical structure of the programs written to construct a nonlinear predictive model to forecast solar flux directly from its time series without reference to any underlying solar physics is presented. This method and the programs are written so that one could apply the same technique to forecast other chaotic time series, such as geomagnetic data, attitude and orbit data, and even financial indexes and stock market data. Perhaps the most important application of this technique to flight dynamics is to model Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) output of residues between observed position of spacecraft and calculated position with no drag (drag flag = off). This would result in a new model of drag working directly from observed data.

Ashrafi, S.↗

DOE OSTI2020

SECARB-USA: Data Quality Methodology

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Southeast Regional CO 2 Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership (SECARB-USA): Data Quality Methodology (4.2.1)

SECARB-USA Deliverable 4.2.1 utilizes the outputs from the Needs Assessment (Subtask 2.1) to develop a data quality methodology. Many types of data are needed to evaluate a site for technical and financial viability. Several inventories of data types have been produced (for example NETL, 2010). The objective here is to organize the data types so that the needs met are specified. From this cross index (Table 1 in the Appendix), it will be possible in future tasks to (1) determine, on a site-specific basis, how much of each data type is required at each stage of a project to meet the need, and conversely (2) to further specify and define the data collection methods applied such that the data are tailored to fit that need. Derivative tables can then be developed to semi-quantitively evaluate the extent to which need is critical for early go/no decision points, or if it is more important than average, requiring faster or larger capitalization and spend to meet the need. In an additional step, the current availability of data for a site can be semi-quantitively assessed. From the table of data criticality and the table of data availability, site-specific cost for meeting the data needs can be determined, and allow a pre-permit spend estimated for a portfolio of projects. All of the data needs to evaluate a site are somewhat interconnected. We used criterion (2) above to determine if the data collection design would have to be modified to meet the need; if this was commonly true a linkage was shown. The application of this cross index to sites in the subsequent tasks will demonstrate that the demand for data types varies site-to-site and project-to-project. Examples of factors to be considered are the complexity of the geology, the injection goals such as rate and duration of the injection, and the types of risk and risk tolerance of key stakeholders. In future tasks the team will compare the demand for data with existing data availability. This will, in turn, determine when data needs to be acquired to support project development. For example, in a project area with complex structure, 3-D seismic data may be needed earlier and more urgently than in an area with simple rock body geometries. In some locations, a 3-D seismic survey has already been collected and can be purchased. In other locations the project developer will need to collect these data. For another example, a project near an urban area or near to a park may generate earlier and more substantive public concern than a site that is developed in mined lands. A calculation using the derivative from table 1 will show the different investment needs. Project cost will vary corresponding to data criticality and data availability.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mitigating Impact Through Community-Engaged Flood Modeling

Urban pluvial flooding poses a growing threat to the city of Baltimore, driven by heavy rainfall, increased impervious area, and aging infrastructure. Adapting to the risks posed by pluvial flooding is critical for building greater climate resiliency in Baltimore's Inner Harbor Watershed. This study addresses these challenges through community-informed decision analysis, which uses hydrologic modeling and optimization tools to identify robust flooding adaptation pathways. We will collaborate with community partners to identify key concerns and objectives regarding flooding. These concerns have been purposefully built in to a combined surface-subsurface dynamic flow simulation model. Model outputs are used to identify flooding locations within the Inner Harbor, and to test adaptation methods. Machine learning will be used search for solutions which meet diverse environmental, financial, and social goals, and solution performance will be examined under a wide range of potential future climatic conditions and integrated with an adaptive planning approach. This novel set of adaptation pathways will enhance the City's capacity to respond to evolving pluvial flood risk.

climate resilience↗

NASA NTRS1983

A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

Ziman, G. M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Wind Plant Performance Prediction Benchmark Phase 1 (Technical Report)

Financial risk resulting from the uncertainty associated with developing, owning, and operating wind power plants remains a barrier to reducing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). On average, modern wind power plants in the U.S. underperform their expected annual energy output by 3.5-4.5% , with many underperforming by over 10%. To compensate for this uncertainty, investors require a larger return on investment (ROI) and apply "knock-down" factors that mask much of the underlying sources of uncertainty. Wind energy projects thus have reduced access to low-cost capital. Furthermore, operating wind plants often take a simple approach to estimating operations & maintenance (O&M) costs (e.g. straight-line estimates based on similar plants), which can eat into profits. To overcome these issues, the wind industry must improve the models they use for estimating wind plant performance and operations. An industry consortium (IC) requested that the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) lead a Department of Energy (DOE) working group to benchmark the accuracy of wind power plant energy predictions against real operational data. The IC was also motivated by DOE and NREL's potential to characterize systematic energy underperformance, identify sources of uncertainty, and explore root causes. The Wind Plant Performance Prediction (WP3) project was created out of this request, and this report represents the successful completion of Phase 1 of the WP3 project. During the project, wind plant owners provided both pre-construction and operational data to NREL. The pre-construction data was provided to wind resource assessment (WRA) consultants so they could conduct energy yield assessments (EYA). NREL took all of the completed EYAs, along with the operational data, and conducted an operational assessment to benchmark the EYA results against actual operational data. Given the large amounts of sensitive data required for this effort, as well as historical opposition to sharing data within industry, successful completion of Phase 1 represents an unprecedented milestone for industry data sharing. To improve the accuracy and confidence of pre-construction EYAs, wind plant owners and investors need better, more certain, energy yield predictions. The WP3 Benchmark Project is an industry-driven response to this reality. For the first time, industry has taken the important step of working together at scale, sharing valuable operational data with DOE and NREL in order to investigate the sources of bias and uncertainty in these energy estimates. This IC provides wind plant preconstruction and operational data to NREL in an organized and documented fashion and provides guidance and feedback as needed. The IC also provides introspection of the design of experiment, key metrics of success, data challenges, analysis best practices, and quality of results.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1982

Regional applicability and potential of salt-gradient solar ponds in the United States. Volume 2: Detailed report

A comprehensive assessment of the regional applicability and potential of salt-gradient solar ponds in the United States is provided. The assessment is focused on the general characteristics of twelve defined geographic regions. Natural resources essential to solar ponds are surveyed. Meteorological and hydrogeological conditions affecting pond performance are examined. Potentially favorable pond sites are identified. Regional thermal and electrical energy output from solar ponds is calculated. Selected pond design cases are studied. Five major potential market sectors are evaluated in terms of technical and energy-consumption characteristics, and solar-pond applicability and potential. Relevant pond system data and financial factors are analyzed. Solar-pond energy costs are compared with conventional energy costs. The assessment concludes that, excepting Alaska, ponds are applicable in all regions for at least two market sectors. Total solar pond energy supply potential in the five market sectors examined is estimated to be 8.94 quads/yr by the year 2000, approximately 7.2% of the projected total national energy demand.

Lin, E. I. H.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reducing Uncertainty in Offshore Wind Energy Yield Estimates via a Metocean Reference Site

The offshore wind industry is burgeoning in the coastal waters of the United States, specifically along the Atlantic. For wind energy to be successful, reliable observations and model simulations are needed for resource assessment and forecasting. While many of these activities have already begun, there is currently an absence of observations at hub-height in these waters, with the closest available hub-height measurements usually taken onshore. Deployment of floating lidars has occurred through various federally funded projects, but only encapsulates time periods of a couple of years at best. Private industry is also beginning to leverage floating lidars, but this data is often proprietary, and not shared with the general public. In this work, we make the case for a metocean reference site for long-term offshore wind energy. Specifically, we quantify the impact of having a metocean reference site compared to other methods of determining hub-height winds and energy production. We use an offshore floating lidar to directly measure the wind resource, and compare these measurements to predictions derived from other widely-available surface meteorological variables. These prediction methods (vertical extrapolation, machine learning, and NWP output) produce a variety of vertical wind speed profiles, of which produce different energy yield estimates for a reference offshore turbine (Figure 1). While some methods perform reasonably well against the lidar, the uncertainty in these energy yield estimates has financial implications, further illustrating the need for long-term measurements in coastal waters.

machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2024

The REPACT Tool: User Manual [Slides]

Reuse of Existing Pipelines for Adapted Carbon Transport (REPACT) is an Excel-based screening tool. This tool enables the user to determine whether a pipeline originally deployed for natural gas transport, can be reused for CO 2 transport. The tool along with its associated users manual walk through an intended usage statement, setup instructions, a list of inputs and outputs in the tool, and frequently used protocols. Please note that this is a first-pass screening tool. The approach presented within this tool is valid for high-level evaluation only and should not be used to make engineering, financial, and/or regulatory decisions. Access the tool here: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=c699a604-ded1-45cd-b1c0-247b1405aeeb

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing the EVI-X National Framework to Address Emerging Energy Questions

This project advances the state-of-the-art in infrastructure analysis to better inform deployment strategies. It enhances NLR's EVI-X Suite, a set of tools supporting national network planning, local site design, and financial evaluation. These capabilities will position DOE to provide timely analysis and inform the strategic buildout of the national charging network. EVI-X development is closely coordinated with other DOE-funded efforts to ensure consistent, integrated use of key inputs and outputs, including EV adoption scenarios from NLR's TEMPO model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2000

Understanding Stellar Light Spatial Inhomogeneities and Time Variability

We would like the opportunity to thank NASA for supporting our efforts to construct tools to analyze the spectra of spatially inhomogeneous and temporally varying stellar atmospheres. This financial support has allowed us to a versatile radiative transfer code that can be used for many different applications. With this numerical code we have written a point-and-click analysis package written in IDL that can be used to look extensively at the generated output data. Below we describe the most recent results obtained with our transfer code and list papers that have appeared with these results. Although we have not been able to produce as many time-dependent calculations as we had hoped (mainly because of programmatic reasons; Sasselov took another position halfway through the grant), we believe we have

Uitenbroek, Han↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing the EVI-X National Framework to Address Emerging Questions on Charging Infrastructure Deployment

As national investments in EV charging infrastructure accelerate, this project advances the state-of-the-art in infrastructure analysis to better inform deployment strategies. It enhances NLR's EVI-X Suite, a set of tools supporting national network planning, local site design, and financial evaluation. These capabilities will position VTO to provide timely analysis to the DOT/DOE Joint Office, and to guide the strategic buildout of the national charging network. EVI-X development is closely coordinated with other VTO-funded efforts to ensure consistent, integrated use of key inputs and outputs, including EV adoption scenarios from TEMPO and infrastructure designs developed through EVs@Scale.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Low-Cost Sulfur Thermal Storage for Increased Flexibility and Improved Economics of Fossil-Fueled Electricity Generating Units (Final Report)

The US electric grid relies on conventional fossil fuel power plants for reliable and secure power, but these plants suffer from physical and financial strain due to the influx of inexpensive and variable solar and wind electricity. Conventional power plants need to generate electricity flexibly and on-demand to accommodate these renewable resources on the grid. Integrating a low-cost thermal energy storage (TES) gives fossil assets the ability to regulate their output efficiently and optimize the plant operation to maximize revenue in the wholesale electricity market. Element 16’s TES concept uses sulfur, a byproduct of the oil & gas industry, as the storage media that is 10 times cheaper than molten salt used in commercial two-tank TES technology. In this project, the team completed a detailed feasibility and technoeconomic study establishing the impact, cost and performance of molten sulfur TES system integrated with fossil assets.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Addressing the Split Incentive Challenge for Enhanced Solar Adoption in Multifamily Rental Properties [Abstract]

The split incentive problem is particularly pronounced in rental markets, where landlords prioritize investments that directly increase property value or rental income. Since energy savings from solar photovoltaic (PV) systems primarily benefit tenants, landlords may perceive little return on investment unless mechanisms exist to recapture some of the financial gains. The primary objective of this project is to develop a publicly available, web-based tool to analyze the U.S. Department of Energy’s ResStock database, which models the U.S. residential building stock. The tool allows users to filter buildings by location, type, HVAC system, square footage, and other characteristics, and outputs typical electric load profiles. By leveraging location-specific electric load data, Fram Energy aims to advance business strategies that address the split incentive barrier and promote the adoption of solar PV installations in rental properties. In addition, a machine learning model will be developed to weigh the marginal contribution of building features across the dataset in predicting electricity demand, supporting guided decision making in forecasting electric load profiles. Lastly, based on each building’s location, load profile, and utility’s electricity rate, an optimized solar photovoltaic array and battery energy storage system will be sized to provide energy arbitrage opportunities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

GeoRePORT Protocol Volume VI: Resource Size Assessment Tool

GeoRePORT is based on the concept that a geothermal system can be described both in terms of the quality of the geothermal resource as it relates to the potential to extract heat ("Resource Grade") and the progress of research and development over the lifetime of the project ("Project Progress"). Resource grade and project progress are reported for three assessment categories: geologic, technical, and socio-economic. Each category has specific criteria and guidelines for assessing both resource grade and project progress, as outlined in each of the following assessment tools (and associated colors): (1) Geological Assessment Tool (representative colors: reds, oranges, browns); (2) Technical Assessment Tool (representative colors: blues, purples); (3) Socio-Economic Assessment Tool (representative colors: greens, yellows). Additionally, users may need to estimate the project size (often reported in MWe or MWth). The resource size assessment tool (RSAT) is an essential addition to GeoRePORT due to the economic and legal context of geothermal development. In order to utilize a geothermal resource, a competitive Power Purchase Agreement (PPA), or similar, often must be obtained, for which the resource's power capacity must be demonstrated. To determine that a geothermal heat or power project is worthy of development, investors or other funding mechanisms often require information on the anticipated heat and/or power potential of the reservoir. They might also be interested in the certainty of that estimate. However, proving the existence and size of a geothermal resource is comparatively expensive and risky relative to other renewable technologies; it can cost developers 5 to 10 million USD to demonstrate a financially viable geothermal resource (Young et al. 2017). GeoRePORT aims to address this barrier to development by providing a consistent and clear assessment of resource quality and certainty. The RSAT will enable GeoRePORT users to not only qualitatively report on a given a resource, but also to compare standard methodologies for quantitatively estimating a resource size in terms of potential heat and/or power output.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electricity Rate Designs for Large Loads: Evolving Practices and Opportunities

Electricity demand from large load customers such as data centers is projected to grow significantly in the near term. While data centers play an important role in advancing technology innovation and economic growth in the United States, data center energy needs present challenges and opportunities for electricity supply and infrastructure. This technical brief serves as a foundation for the discussion of issues and sharing of perspectives among utilities, regulators, large load customers, and other stakeholders. As utilities and regulators explore rate structures to address growing data center electricity demand, several issues have emerged: -Fair allocation of electricity system costs to large-load customers without unfair shifting of costs to other customers -Appropriate mitigation of the financial risks associated with stranded assets from underutilized utility system investments -Mitigation of operational and resource adequacy risks if electricity demand exceeds supply -Appropriate risk-sharing in commercializing newer electricity technologies such as advanced geothermal, small modular reactors, and long duration energy storage -Accommodating the diverse needs of large-load customers, such as having the option to match electricity consumption with output from carbon-free resources or using onsite generation to provide system capacity The technical brief also identifies key design elements that aim to address these issues and uses leading examples from pending and approved rate structures, agreements, and special contracts to ground the elements in practice.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Developing Fuel Cell Electric Powertrain Architectures for Commercial Vehicles

Here, this article addresses the architecture development for a commercial vehicle fuel cell electric powertrain by establishing a clear multi-step formalized workflow that employs a unique technoeconomic solution for architecture selection. The power capability of the fuel cell, the energy capacity and chemistry of the electrical energy storage (battery), the DC-DC converter (including the input current rating and isolation resistance requirements), the traction drive solution, the on-board hydrogen storage solution, and the real-time power-split management of the fuel cell and the battery are all considered and developed in this effort. The methods were used to select architecture for Class 8 urban, regional, and line haul applications. When compared to traditional load-following power-split controllers, an energy management power-split controller can increase system energy efficiency by up to 19.5%. The energy-efficient power-split controller may increase the required battery capacity for an equivalent life by up to 2.6 times. The impact on the total cost of ownership (TCO) for a variety of financial cases demonstrates that high C-rate capable batteries have the potential to provide better TCO solutions over a six-year vehicle life than low C-rate capable batteries. To achieve TCO parity with the 600 A non-isolated DC-DC converter case, the specific choice of the fuel cell DC-DC converter to achieve a target power output based on current levels (from 500 A to 2400 A) shows that efficiency decreases and cost increases due to the higher current, requiring fuel cell prices to decrease by $50–$100/kW, $60–$110/kW, and $100–$220/kW for urban, regional, and line haul applications, respectively. Key recommendations for powertrain system architectures are provided, with specifics based on vehicle dynamics, mission and application characteristics, end customer use-case profile, critical powertrain component costs, and architecture selection cost function. This study rigorously demonstrates the interplay of the above parameters, with a focus on TCO, and provides application decision-makers with a mechanism and well-defined set of impact factors to consider as part of their architecture selection process.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗