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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Extrapolation of the Rainflow-Counted Load Ranges for Fatigue Assessment of the Wind Turbine's Blades

Wind turbine design standards recommend the use of statistical modeling coupled with extrapolation of the short-term load data to long-term periods for fatigue reliability assessment. However, statistical error and computational expense can limit the accuracy of such approaches. In the case of wind turbine blades, the errors are more significant because of the high material fatigue exponent that makes the damage estimations more sensitive to variations. In addition, due to different excitation sources, the flapwise load range histogram is not unimodal, and thus its statistical modeling is complex. In the present work, we provide three methods for statistical modeling of the flapwise bending moment ranges including a novel approach based on frequency-based separation of the modes. The first two methods are simplified approaches for modeling the most crucial load ranges using unimodal distributions and the third method involves multimodal distribution fitting. The research is based on 3600 10-minute aeroelastic simulations of DTU 10MW case study wind turbine from which a benchmark damage equivalent load (DEL) is calculated. The DEL calculated by each of the three proposed methods is compared to this reference. The results show that the conventional approach based on using 6 seeds as well as using mixture models fitted on the limited data lead to under-conservative results with errors up to 23%. On the other hand, the simplified unimodal approaches provided in this work can provide conservative estimations of the fatigue damage with mean values 5% and 12% higher than the benchmark. However, the variability of the DEL estimates is higher when using unimodal extrapolation of the load ranges, and the data can be conservative by 17.5%. The proposed unimodal fits suggested for modeling and extrapolation of the blade's load ranges provide less errors relatively and most importantly conservative DEL estimations while maintaining computational efficiency.

blade fatigue↗
DOE OSTI2022

Extrapolation of Efficacy from Adults to Pediatric Patients of Drugs for Treatment of Partial Onset Seizures: A Regulatory Perspective

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has concluded that the efficacy of drugs approved for the treatment of partial onset seizures (POS) in adults can be extrapolated to pediatric patients 1 month of age and above and that independent efficacy trials in this pediatric population are no longer needed. This paper focuses on the dosing, pharmacokinetic (PK), exposure‐response, and clinical information that were leveraged from the approved drugs for the treatment of POS to conduct analyses that supported extrapolation of efficacy in pediatric patients. Clinical data from trials for eight drugs (levetiracetam, oxcarbazepine, topiramate, lamotrigine, gabapentin, perampanel, tiagabine, and vigabatrin) approved in both adults and pediatric patients for the treatment of POS were analyzed. Comparisons of exposures at approved doses, placebo response, and model‐based exposure‐response relationships were performed. Based on disease similarity, similar response to intervention, and similar exposure‐response relationships in adults and pediatric patients, it was concluded that extrapolation of efficacy in pediatric patients aged 1 month and above is acceptable. PK analysis to determine pediatric dose and regimens that provide drug exposure similar to that known to be effective in adult patients with POS will be required, along with long‐term open‐label safety data in pediatric patients.

Pharmacology & Pharmacy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Extrapolating Contaminant Effects from Individuals to Populations: A Case Study on Nanoparticle Toxicity to Daphnia Fed Environmentally Relevant Food Levels

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is charged with assessing the likelihood a chemical will have adverse environmental or ecological effects. When assessing the risk of a potential contaminant to biological organisms, ecologists are most concerned with the sustainability of populations of organisms, rather than protecting every individual. However, ERA most commonly relies on data on the effect of a potential contaminant on individuals because these experiments are more feasible than costly population-level exposures. In this work, we address the challenge of extrapolating these individual-level results to predict population-level effects. Previous per-capita population growth rate estimates calculated from individual-level exposures of Daphnia pulicaria to silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) at different food rations predict a critical daily food requirement for daphnid populations exposed to 200 μg/L AgNPs to avoid extinction. To test this, we exposed daphnid populations to the same AgNP concentration at three different food inputs, with the lowest ration close to the extinction threshold predicted from data on individuals. The two populations with the higher food inputs persisted, and the population with the lowest food input went extinct after 50 days but did persist through two generations. Further, we demonstrate that we can extrapolate between these levels of biological organization by parameterizing an individual-level biomass model with data on individuals’ response to AgNPs and using these parameters to predict the outcome for control and AgNP-exposed populations. Key to successful extrapolation is careful modeling of temporal changes in resource density, driven by both the experimental protocols and feedback from the consumer. The implication for ecotoxicology is that estimates of extinction thresholds based on studies of individuals may be reliable predictors of population outcomes, but only with careful treatment of resource dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extrapolation of thermal conductivity in non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations to bulk scale

Predictions of the bulk scale thermal conductivity of solids using non-equilibrium molecular dynamics (MD) simulations have relied on the linear extrapolation of the thermal resistivity versus the reciprocal of the system length in the simulations. Several studies have reported deviation of the extrapolation from linearity near the micro-scale, raising a concern of its applicability to large systems. To investigate this issue, present work conducted extensive MD simulations of silicon with two different potentials (EDIP and Tersoff-II) for unprecedented length scales up to 10.3 μm and simulation times up to 530 ns. For large systems ≥0.35 μm in size the non-linearity of the extrapolation of the reciprocal of the thermal conductivity is mostly due to ignoring the dependence of the thermal conductivity on temperature. To account for such dependence, the present analysis fixes the temperature range for determining the gradient for calculating the thermal conductivity values. However, short systems ≤0.23 μm in size show significant non-linearity in the calculated thermal conductivity values using a temperature window of 500 ± 10 K from the simulations results with the EDIP potential. Since these system sizes are shorter than the mean phonon free path in EDIP (~0.22 μm), the nonlinearity may be attributed to phonon transport. For the MD simulations with the Tersoff-II potential there is no significant non-linearity in the calculated thermal conductivity values for systems ranging in size from 0.05 to 5.4 μm.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of time-correlated noise on zero-noise extrapolation

Zero-noise extrapolation is a quantum error mitigation technique that has typically been studied under the ideal approximation that the noise acting on a quantum device is not time correlated. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility and performance of zero-noise extrapolation in the presence of time-correlated noise. We show that, in contrast to white noise, time-correlated noise is harder to mitigate via zero-noise extrapolation because it is difficult to scale the noise level without also modifying its spectral distribution. This limitation is particularly strong if “local” gate-level methods are applied for noise scaling. Furthermore, we find that “global” noise-scaling methods, e.g., global unitary folding, can be sufficiently reliable even in the presence of time-correlated noise.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

An extrapolation method for strain ranges and hold times in developing the EPP+SMT creep-fatigue design curves for Alloy 617

Experimental and numerical studies in developing the integrated Elastic–Perfectly Plastic (EPP) plus Simplified Model Test (SMT) design methodology, referred to as the EPP+SMT method, continued in FY2022. This report focuses on the methods for extrapolating the EPP+SMT creep-fatigue (CF) design curves at long hold times and low strain ranges. In this study, the available CF failure data on Alloy 617 at 950°C were analyzed to determine a set of CF failure criteria. At very low strain ranges and long hold times, CF failure data are not accessible by experiments because of the extraordinarily long test durations and the inability of the test machines to accurately control these small strain ranges. A CF experimental approach with the concept of block-strain range CF testing protocol was developed. Tests using this protocol were conducted to generate the needed information for calibrating material parameters of the numerical material models. The Time Fraction based method and Dissipated Energy method were used to extrapolate the CF life curves to low strain ranges and long hold times. Based on the new experimental approach and CF life prediction methods, the CF life curves with various hold times were developed for Alloy 617 at 950°C. In addition, an experiment was designed and is being performed to verify the predicted CF curves at 950°C. The extrapolation procedure will be applied at lower temperatures to complete the development of the EPP+SMT CF design curves for Alloy 617 in F2023.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extrapolation Domains for Aggregating Environmental Outcomes from Local to Regional Levels

Billions of dollars are invested every year to run field experiments to quantify the response of crops to new technologies and associated environmental outcomes. Given the diversity of environments where crop production occurs, conducting these research studies without a robust framework for research site selection and upscaling results to larger spatial scales is inefficient. In this project, researchers from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln used their unique Technology Extrapolation Domains framework (TED) as a tool to guide the selection of experimental sites and as basis for aggregating and validating environmental outcomes from local to regional levels. In the present project, we first used the TED framework to evaluate the current distribution and area coverage of the current SMARTFARM sites. The purpose was to showcase how it is possible to use the TED framework to guide site selection and extrapolate results over space. Additionally, the original TED framework was expanded to account for other factors influencing environmental outcomes by inclusion of three additional variables: soil organic matter, soil texture, and topographic wetness index. The resulting expanded framework (TED-E) was validated using nitrogen (N) losses from corn in the United States as a case study. To do so, we used N balance as a proxy to N losses and we evaluated the capacity of the framework to explain variation in N balance across fields and across countries. We found that the TED-E has substantially higher predictive power than the original TED framework to explain spatial variation in N balance. However, improvements in predictive power with the TED-E tool come at the expense of a higher number of TEDs needed to achieve a given crop area coverage compared with the original TED framework. We conclude that the new TED-E framework can help aggregate and extrapolate environmental outcomes from research sites to regional levels and improve the visualization of their spatial patterns across the United States. An online version of the framework is available at: https://www.toolted.org/

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

New methods to improve the vertical extrapolation of near-surface offshore wind speeds

Accurate characterization of the offshore wind resource has been hindered by a sparsity of wind speed observations that span offshore wind turbine rotor-swept heights. Although public availability of floating lidar data is increasing, most offshore wind speed observations continue to come from buoy-based and satellite-based near-surface measurements. The aim of this study is to develop and validate novel vertical extrapolation methods that can accurately estimate wind speed time series across rotor-swept heights using these near-surface measurements. We contrast the conventional logarithmic profile against three novel approaches: a logarithmic profile with a long-term stability correction, a single-column model, and a machine-learning model. These models are developed and validated using 1 year of observations from two floating lidars deployed in US Atlantic offshore wind energy areas. We find that the machine-learning model significantly outperforms all other models across all stability regimes, seasons, and times of day. Machine-learning model performance is considerably improved by including the air–sea temperature difference, which provides some accounting for offshore atmospheric stability. Finally, we find no degradation in machine-learning model performance when tested 83 km from its training location, suggesting promising future applications in extrapolating 10 m wind speeds from spatially resolved satellite-based wind atlases.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Explainability and extrapolation of machine learning models for predicting the glass transition temperature of polymers

Abstract Machine learning (ML) offers promising tools to develop surrogate models for polymers' structure–property relations. Surrogate models can be built upon existing polymer data and are useful for rapidly predicting the properties of unknown polymers. The accuracy of such ML models appears to depend on the feature space representation of polymers, the range of training data, and learning algorithms. Here, we establish connections between these factors for predicting the glass transition temperature (T g ) of polymers. Our analysis suggests linear models with fewer fitting parameters are as accurate as nonlinear models with many hidden and unexplainable parameters. Also, the performance of a monomer topology‐based ML model is found to be qualitatively identical to that of a physicochemical descriptor‐based ML model. We find that the ML models's performance in the extrapolative region is enhanced as the property range of the training data increases. Moreover, we establish newT g – polymer chemistry correlations via ML. Our work illustrates how ML can advance the fundamental understanding of polymer structure–property correlations and its efficacy for extrapolation problems.

Polymer Science↗
DOE OSTI2020

Physical resurgent extrapolation

Expansions of physical functions are controlled by their singularities, which have special structure because they themselves are physical, corresponding to instantons, caustics or saddle configurations. Resurgent asymptotics formalizes this idea mathematically, and leads to significantly more powerful extrapolation methods to extract physical information from a finite number of terms of an expansion, including precise decoding of non-perturbative effects. We quantify the gain of precision for various extrapolation procedures, showing that significant improvements can be achieved using exactly the same input data, and we illustrate the general method with examples from quantum mechanics and quantum field theory.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Compact representation and long-time extrapolation of real-time data for quantum systems using the ESPRIT algorithm

Representing real-time data as a sum of complex exponentials provides a compact form that enables both denoising and extrapolation. As a fully data-driven method, the Estimation of Signal Parameters via Rotational Invariance Techniques (ESPRIT) algorithm is agnostic to the underlying physical equations, making it broadly applicable to various observables and experimental or numerical setups. In this work, we consider applications of the ESPRIT algorithm primarily to extend real-time dynamical data from simulations of quantum systems. We evaluate ESPRIT's performance in the presence of noise and compare it to other extrapolation methods. We demonstrate its ability to extract information from short-time dynamics to reliably predict long-time behavior and determine the minimum time interval required for accurate results. We discuss how this insight can be leveraged in numerical methods that propagate quantum systems in time, and we show how ESPRIT can predict infinite-time values of dynamical observables, offering a purely data-driven approach to characterizing quantum phases.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Zero-noise extrapolation for quantum-gate error mitigation with identity insertions

Quantum-gate errors are a significant challenge for achieving precision measurements on noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) computers. Here, this paper focuses on zero-noise extrapolation (ZNE), a technique that can be implemented on existing hardware, studying it in detail and proposing modifications to existing approaches. In particular, we consider identity insertion methods for amplifying noise because they are hardware agnostic. We build a mathematical formalism for studying existing ZNE techniques and show how higher order polynomial extrapolations can be used to systematically reduce depolarizing errors. Furthermore, we introduce a method for amplifying noise that uses far fewer gates than traditional methods. This approach is compared with existing methods for simulated quantum circuits. Comparable or smaller errors are possible with fewer gates, which illustrates the potential for empowering an entirely new class of moderate-depth circuits on near term hardware.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mass of 101 Sn and Bayesian extrapolations to the proton drip line

The favorable energy configurations of nuclei at magic numbers of 𝑁 neutrons and 𝑍 protons are fundamental for understanding the evolution of nuclear structure. The 𝑍 = 50 (tin) isotopic chain is a frontier for such studies, with particular interest at and around the doubly magic 100 Sn isotope, for which the mass is a topic of debate. Precise mass values for neutron-deficient isotopes provide necessary anchor points for mass models to test extrapolations near the proton drip line, where experimental studies remain out of reach. In this work, we report a Penning trap mass measurement of 101 Sn . The determined mass excess of −59889.89⁢(96) keV for 101 Sn represents a factor-of-300 improvement over the current precision and indicates that 101 Sn is less bound than previously thought. Mass predictions from a recently developed Bayesian model combination framework employing statistical machine learning and nuclear masses computed within seven global models based on nuclear density functional theory agree within 1⁢𝜎 with experimental masses from the 48 ≤ 𝑍 ≤ 52 isotopic chains. The framework's resilience to new mass data gave confidence in the extrapolation of tin masses down to 𝑁 = 46. Our calculations suggest that 96 Sn is a two-proton drip line nucleus and predict a mass excess of −58090⁢(800) keV for 100 Sn , showing a preference within 1⁢𝜎 for the mass of 100 Sn derived from the 𝛽-delayed 𝑄 value measured at GSI.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Species Extrapolation of Propyl Acetate Dose Metrics

We demonstrate the ability of the propyl PBPK model to predict dose metrics of propyl acetate, propanol, and propionic acid from a standard 90-day subchronic inhalation study of propyl acetate in male and female rats. The model was used to predict the same dose metrics in “reference” male and female humans using the same exposure conditions. Finally, we used reverse dosimetry with the model to predict what exposure conditions would lead to the same dose metrics measured in rats. These extrapolations of internal dose metrics based on known species differences in physiology and measured differences in metabolism offer a more scientific species extrapolation than conventional uncertainty approaches, potentially of interest for risk assessment.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Full-Field and Integrated CFD Convergence Based on Richardson Extrapolation

This work investigated the usefulness of Richardson extrapolation--based discretization error estimates across all points in a solution field to produce a spatial convergence field for a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. The presented work used previously developed methods for Richardson extrapolation to compute the convergence orders of a CFD simulation at all points of the base (coarsest) mesh solution. Three test cases of increasing complexity were considered: Poiseuille flow, incompressible flow around a sharp corner, and transonic flow over an RAE 2822 airfoil. These test cases highlighted the potential of the proposed method to identify error sources and their relation to the model system-response-quantity convergence orders. However, these test cases also revealed the immaturity of the proposed method stemming from the unreliability of computing observed convergence orders at single points. Nonetheless, the test cases highlighted that the observed convergence orders allow for a more accurate diagnosis of constructive and destructive error transport than mesh pair error estimates. In the long run, the proposed method can be a tool for developing efficient and advanced error management strategies like adaptive mesh refinement.

Weinmeister, Justin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar PV Water Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends

This dataset represents solar energy setback requirements from bodies of water based on county ordinances as of April 2022. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from water that an energy project may be developed, and these varied widely across the counties in which they existed. Two versions are provided: one reflecting only the county ordinances and another incorporating extrapolated trends. In the extrapolated version, a default setback of 30 meters was applied in counties without specific water setback regulations. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided for both versions, showing areas where solar energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar PV Structure Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends

This dataset represents solar energy setback requirements from structures based on county ordinances as of April 2022. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from a structure that an energy project may be developed, and these varied widely across the counties in which they existed. Two versions are provided: one reflecting only the county ordinances and another incorporating extrapolated trends. In the extrapolated version, a default setback of 61 meters was applied in counties without specific structure setback regulations. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided for both versions, showing areas where solar energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar PV Road Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends

This dataset represents solar energy setback requirements from roads based on county ordinances as of April 2022. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from a road that an energy project may be developed, and these varied widely across the counties in which they existed. Two versions are provided: one reflecting only the county ordinances and another incorporating extrapolated trends. In the extrapolated version, a default setback of 30 meters was applied in counties without specific road setback regulations. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided for both versions, showing areas where solar energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

Array↗