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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Annual cycle of aerosol properties over the central Arctic during MOSAiC 2019–2020 – light-extinction, CCN, and INP levels from the boundary layer to the tropopause

Abstract. The MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition was the largest Arctic field campaign ever conducted. MOSAiC offered the unique opportunity to monitor and characterize aerosols and clouds with high vertical resolution up to 30 km height at latitudes from 80 to 90∘ N over an entire year (October 2019 to September 2020). Without a clear knowledge of the complex aerosol layering, vertical structures, and dominant aerosol types and their impact on cloud formation, a full understanding of the meteorological processes in the Arctic, and thus advanced climate change research, is impossible. Widespread ground-based in situ observations in the Arctic are insufficient to provide these required aerosol and cloud data. In this article, a summary of our MOSAiC observations of tropospheric aerosol profiles with a state-of-the-art multiwavelength polarization Raman lidar aboard the icebreaker Polarstern is presented. Particle optical properties, i.e., light-extinction profiles and aerosol optical thickness (AOT), and estimates of cloud-relevant aerosol properties such as the number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice-nucleating particles (INPs) are discussed, separately for the lowest part of the troposphere (atmospheric boundary layer, ABL), within the lower free troposphere (around 2000 m height), and at the cirrus level close to the tropopause. In situ observations of the particle number concentration and INPs aboard Polarstern are included in the study. A strong decrease in the aerosol amount with height in winter and moderate vertical variations in summer were observed in terms of the particle extinction coefficient. The 532 nm light-extinction values dropped from >50 Mm−1 close to the surface to <5 Mm−1 at 4–6 km height in the winter months. Lofted, aged wildfire smoke layers caused a re-increase in the aerosol concentration towards the tropopause. In summer (June to August 2020), much lower particle extinction coefficients, frequently as low as 1–5 Mm−1, were observed in the ABL. Aerosol removal, controlled by in-cloud and below-cloud scavenging processes (widely suppressed in winter and very efficient in summer) in the lowermost 1–2 km of the atmosphere, seems to be the main reason for the strong differences between winter and summer aerosol conditions. A complete annual cycle of the AOT in the central Arctic could be measured. This is a valuable addition to the summertime observations with the sun photometers of the Arctic Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). In line with the pronounced annual cycle in the aerosol optical properties, typical CCN number concentrations (0.2 % supersaturation level) ranged from 50–500 cm−3 in winter to 10–100 cm−3 in summer in the ABL. In the lower free troposphere (at 2000 m), however, the CCN level was roughly constant throughout the year, with values mostly from 30 to 100 cm−3. A strong contrast between winter and summer was also given in terms of ABL INPs which control ice production in low-level clouds. While soil dust (from surrounding continents) is probably the main INP type during the autumn, winter, and spring months, local sea spray aerosol (with a biogenic aerosol component) seems to dominate the ice nucleation in the ABL during the summer months (June–August). The strong winter vs. summer contrast in the INP number concentration by roughly 2–3 orders of magnitude in the lower troposphere is, however, mainly caused by the strong cloud temperature contrast. A unique event of the MOSAiC expedition was the occurrence of a long-lasting wildfire smoke layer in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Our observations suggest that the smoke particles frequently triggered cirrus formation close to the tropopause from October 2019 to May 2020.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Assessment of Kinetic Models for Ammonia Flame Extinction

The growing interest in using ammonia as a carbon-neutral replacement fuel has prompted numerous recent research efforts towards understanding fundamental combustion characteristics and chemical kinetics of ammonia oxidation. Despite these recent efforts, there remains a large deficiency in extinction limit data for ammonia flames, particularly under elevated pressure and temperature conditions relevant to gas turbines. Even the literature reaction mechanisms developed specifically for ammonia have been untested under gas turbine relevant conditions, and existing kinetic models have shown large variations in laminar flame speed, extinction strain rate, and speciation predictions for NH3–H2 mixtures at ambient conditions. Recent work by Thomas and co-workers, for example, compared different ammonia kinetic models in the literature for predicting their extinction strain rate measurements for non-premixed NH3-H2 counterflow flames, and again have highlighted the discrepancies in model predictions. Here, our work has undertaken to further highlight important reaction pathways for ammonia oxidation that may be responsible for these discrepancies for extinction strain rate predictions, as well as elucidate sensitive reaction steps with large uncertainties that require further attention. This work points to a need for an improved understanding of ammonia combustion chemistry as well as new datasets at elevated pressure and temperature conditions to better constrain rate expressions for key reaction steps.

ammonia, flame, combustion, kinetic, kinetics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extinction of Premixed Counterflow Ammonia-Air Flames

The effects of radiative heat loss and pressure on premixed counterflow ammonia-air flames have been investigated as a function of equivalence ratio. Non-adiabatic counterflow premixed flame simulations incorporating detailed chemistry, transport and radiative heat transfer in the optically thin limit have been employed to elucidate important underlying physics and extinction characteristics. Non-adiabatic counterflow premixed computations show that the combined effects of positive flame stretch and radiative heat loss for sub-unity Lewis number mixtures lead to the extension of the lean flammability limit for ammonia-air flames, revealing a C-shaped curve near the lean flammability limit that exhibits both radiative-induced and stretch-induced extinction states. The computations compare favorably with the experimentally determined extinction stretch rate values for the stretch-induced extinction states over a wide range of equivalence ratios at different pressures up to 6 atm.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extinction Monitoring of Pulsed Proton Beams Using FPGA-Based Peak Detection

The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab imposes stringent requirements on the elimination of out-of-time beam in its pulsed proton beam - a requirement known as "extinction". We present a method to measure the out-of-time particle rates to calculate the level of extinction in the inter-pulse gaps. The proposed method utilizes an array of quartz Cherenkov radiators and photomultiplier tubes to detect particles scattered from a vacuum chamber in the M4 transfer beamline at Fermilab.The measurement will employ a new μTCA-based FPGA system for data acquisition and signal processing, utilizing real-time peak detection algorithms to count scattered beam particles. By integrating data over many transfers, the time profile of the out-of-time beam will be resolved to fractional levels relative to that of the in-time beam. These results are compared with G4beamline simulations to validate models of beam transport, dynamics, and extinction, providing critical input for optimizing beam delivery to Mu2e.

Hensley, Ryan [UC, Davis]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Diagnosing Ghost Bunches with the Upstream Extinction Monitor in the Mu2e Experiment

The Mu2e experiment has a stringent requirement for extinction of the pulsed proton beam, referring to the elimination of particles between proton bunches to a relative level of 10$^-10$, which means a single out-of-time particle in the inter-pulse gaps for every 250 complete proton pulses. As the construction of the Mu2e experiment nears completion, it is crucially important to make an early measurement of the beam extinction in its current condition. Hence the upstream extinction monitor was constructed and operated to probe for problems in the proton pulse structure or a higher than expected incidence rate of out-of-time particles. The analysis in this work comes from data taken in March 2026. The long data run showed a significant presence of out-of-time particles from ghost bunches in the Delivery Ring approximately 388 ns after the centers of the main proton pulses. These are hypothesized to be the result of a combination of a RF frequency mismatch, particle space charge, and machine impedance during the rebunching sequence in the Recycler Ring, which can lead to particles leaking into adjacent buckets, but further studies and simulations are needed to confirm this

Hensley, R. [UC, Davis] (ORCID:0000000216064485)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of multi-regime reaction zones in a piloted inhomogeneous jet flame with local extinction

In this study, gradient free regime identification (GFRI) is applied to 1D Raman/Rayleigh/LIF measurements of temperature and major species from the intermediate velocity case of the Sydney piloted inhomogeneous jet flame series to better understand the structure of reaction zones and the downstream evolution of multi-regime characteristics. The GFRI approach allows local reaction zones to be detected and characterized as premixed, dominantly premixed, multi-regime, dominantly non-premixed, or non-premixed flame structures, based on flame markers (mixture fraction, chemical mode, and heat release rate) derived from the experimental data. The statistics of chemical mode zero-crossings, which mark premixed reaction zones, and the relative populations of flame structures are shown to be sensitive to the state of mixing in the near field of the flame and to the level of local extinction farther downstream. Multi-regime structures, where premixed and non-premixed reaction zones occur in close proximity and both contribute to overall heat release, account for nearly half the total population at streamwise locations within the first several jet diameters. There is a rapid transition within the near field whereby the relative population of non-premixed and dominantly non-premixed structures grows from 0.05 to nearly 0.5, and the population of premixed and dominantly premixed structures decreases correspondingly as fluid entering the reaction zone becomes progressively fuel-rich. Local extinction and re-ignition bring a resurgence in premixed-type structures, many of which occur at fuel-lean conditions. There are also modest populations of multi-regime structures, having chemical mode zero-crossings at lean conditions, which would not exist in a fully burning jet flame.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Endothermic physiology of extinct megatooth sharks

The evolution of the extinct megatooth shark, Otodus megalodon , and its close phylogenetic relatives remains enigmatic. A central question persists regarding the thermophysiological origins of these large predatory sharks through geologic time, including whether O. megalodon was ectothermic or endothermic (including regional endothermy), and whether its thermophysiology could help to explain the iconic shark’s gigantism and eventual demise during the Pliocene. To address these uncertainties, we present unique geochemical evidence for thermoregulation in O. megalodon from both clumped isotope paleothermometry and phosphate oxygen isotopes. Our results show that O. megalodon had an overall warmer body temperature compared with its ambient environment and other coexisting shark species, providing quantitative and experimental support for recent biophysical modeling studies that suggest endothermy was one of the key drivers for gigantism in O. megalodon and other lamniform sharks. The gigantic body size with high metabolic costs of having high body temperatures may have contributed to the vulnerability of Otodus species to extinction when compared to other sympatric sharks that survived the Pliocene epoch.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Aerosol and Cloud Optical Properties from the ARM Raman Lidars: The Feature Detection and Extinction (RLPROF-FEX) Value-Added Product

Aerosols and their interactions and influence on clouds are among the main sources of uncertainties in radiative direct and indirect forcing (IPCC 2013). Continuous height-resolved measurements of cloud and aerosol optical properties are needed to reduce these uncertainties. Here we describe the Raman Lidar Profiles – Feature detection and Extinction (RLPROF-FEX) Value-Added Product (VAP) derived using Raman lidar data at multiple U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility sites. RLPROF-FEX provides estimates of extinction, backscatter, and depolarization using the algorithm described by Thorsen et al. 2015 and Thorsen and Fu 2015. This document provides a description of the FEX algorithm, its input and output data, and related details about the Raman lidar (RL) system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extinction Dynamics of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Carrier State Under Natural Conditions

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most economically important livestock diseases worldwide. Following the clinical phase of FMD, a large proportion of ruminants remain persistently infected for extended periods. Although extinction of this carrier state occurs continuously at the animal and population levels, studies vary widely in their estimates of the duration of persistent infection. There is a need for robust statistical models to capture the dynamics of persistent infection for the sake of guiding FMD control and trade policies. The goal of the current study was to develop and assess statistical models to describe the extinction of FMD virus (FMDV) persistent infection using data from primary longitudinal studies of naturally infected cattle and Asian buffalo in Vietnam and India. Specifically, accelerated failure time (AFT) models and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were developed to predict the probability of persistent infection in seropositive animals and identified carriers at the individual animal level at sequential time points after outbreaks. The primary studies were analyzed by country and combined using an individual-participant data meta-analysis approach. The models estimated similar trends in the duration of persistent infection for the study/species groups included in the analyses, however the significance of the trends differed between the models. The overall probabilities of persistent infection were similar as predicted by the AFT and GLMM models: 6 months: 99% (AFT) /80% (GLMM), 12 months: 51% (AFT) /32% (GLMM), 18 months: 6% (AFT) /5% (GLMM), 24 months: 0.8% (AFT) /0.6% (GLMM). These models utilizing diverse and robust data sets predict higher probabilities of persistence than previously published, suggesting greater endurance of carriers subsequent to an outbreak. This study demonstrates the utility of statistical models to investigate the dynamics of persistent infection and the importance of large datasets, which can be achieved by combining data from several smaller studies in meta-analyses. Results of this study enhance current knowledge of the FMDV carrier state and may inform policy decisions regarding FMDV persistent infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Near-infrared Supernova Ia Distances: Host Galaxy Extinction and Mass-step Corrections Revisited

We present optical and near-infrared (NIR, Y-, J-, H-band) observations of 42 Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) discovered by the untargeted intermediate Palomar Transient Factory survey. This new data set covers a broad range of redshifts and host galaxy stellar masses, compared to previous SN Ia efforts in the NIR. We construct a sample, using also literature data at optical and NIR wavelengths, to examine claimed correlations between the host stellar masses and the Hubble diagram residuals. The SN magnitudes are corrected for host galaxy extinction using either a global total-to-selective extinction ratio, R V = 2.0, for all SNe, or a best-fit R V for each SN individually. Unlike previous studies that were based on a narrower range in host stellar mass, we do not find evidence for a "mass step," between the color- and stretch-corrected peak J and H magnitudes for galaxies below and above $\mathrm{log}({M}_{* }/{M}_{\odot })=10$. However, the mass step remains significant (3σ) at optical wavelengths (g, r, i) when using a global R V , but vanishes when each SN is corrected using their individual best-fit R V . Our study confirms the benefits of the NIR SN Ia distance estimates, as these are largely exempted from the empirical corrections dominating the systematic uncertainties in the optical.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Stochastic Gause Predator-Prey model: Noise-induced extinctions and invariance

We consider the Gause predator-prey with general bounded or sub‑linear functional responses, – which includes those of Holling types Ⅰ–Ⅳ. – and multiplicative Gaussian noise. In contrast to previous studies, the prey in our model follows logistic dynamics while the predator's population is solely regulated by consumption of the prey. To ensure well-posedeness, we derive explicit Lyapunov‐type criteria ensuring global positivity and moment boundedness of solutions. We find conditions for noise‑induced extinctions, proving that stochasticity can drive either population to collapse even when the deterministic analogue predicts stable coexistence. In the case when the predator becomes extinct, we establish a limiting distribution for the predator's population. Last, for functional responses of Holling type Ⅰ, we provide sufficient conditions on the intensity of the noise for the existence and uniqueness of a stationary distribution.

Gause model↗
DOE OSTI2022

Photothermal Atomic Force Microscopy Coupled with Infrared Spectroscopy (AFM-IR) Analysis of High Extinction Coefficient Materials: A Case Study with Silica and Silicate Glasses

Photothermal atomic force microscopy coupled with infrared spectroscopy (AFM-IR) brings significant value as a spatially resolved surface analysis technique for disordered oxide materials such as glasses, but additional development and fundamental understanding of governing principles is needed to interpret AFM-IR spectra, since the existing theory described for organic materials does not work for materials with high extinction coefficients for infrared (IR) absorption. This paper describes theoretical calculation of a transient temperature profile inside the IR-absorbing material considering IR refraction at the interface as well as IR adsorption and heat transfer inside the sample. Furthermore, this calculation explains the differences in peak positions and amplitudes of AFM-IR spectra from those of specular reflectance and extinction coefficient spectra. It also addresses the information depth of the AFM-IR characterization of bulk materials. AFM-IR applied to silica and silicate glass surfaces has demonstrated novel capability of characterizing subsurface structural changes and surface heterogeneity due to mechanical stresses from physical contacts, as well as chemical alterations manifested in surface layers through aqueous corrosion.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Galápagos tortoise stable isotope ecology and the 1850s Floreana Island Chelonoidis niger niger extinction

A consequence of over 400 years of human exploitation of Galápagos tortoises (Chelonoidis niger ssp.) is the extinction of several subspecies and the decimation of others. As humans captured, killed, and/or removed tortoises for food, oil, museums, and zoos, they also colonized the archipelago resulting in the introduction of invasive plants, animals, and manipulated landscapes for farming, ranching, and infrastructure. Given current conservation and revitalization efforts for tortoises and their habitats, here we investigate nineteenth and twentieth century Galápagos tortoise dietary ecology using museum and archaeological specimens coupled with analysis of carbon (δ 13 C collagen and δ 13 Capatite), nitrogen (δ 15 N), hydrogen (δD) and oxygen (δ 18 O apatite ) stable isotopes and radiocarbon dating. We identify that Galápagos tortoise diets vary between and within islands over time, and that long-term anthropogenic impacts influenced change in tortoise stable isotope ecology by using 57 individual tortoises from 10 different subspecies collected between 1833 and 1967—a 134-year period. On lower elevation islands, which are often hotter and drier, tortoises tend to consume more C 4 vegetation (cacti and grasses). Our research suggests human exploitation of tortoises and anthropogenic impacts on vegetation contributed to the extinction of the Floreana Island tortoise (C. n. niger) in the 1850s.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The trailing edge is everywhere: tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

Given the importance of climate in shaping species’ geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data—such that individuals at the cool edge of a species’ distribution should benefit from warming (the “leading edge”), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the “trailing edge”). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species’ distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming—the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species’ distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species’ distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A striking relationship between dust extinction and radio detection in DESI QSOs: evidence for a dusty blow-out phase in red QSOs

ABSTRACT We present the first eight months of data from our secondary target programme within the ongoing Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. Our programme uses a mid-infrared and optical colour selection to preferentially target dust-reddened quasi-stellar objects (QSOs) that would have otherwise been missed by the nominal DESI QSO selection. So far, we have obtained optical spectra for 3038 candidates, of which ∼70 per cent of the high-quality objects (those with robust redshifts) are visually confirmed to be Type 1 QSOs, consistent with the expected fraction from the main DESI QSO survey. By fitting a dust-reddened blue QSO composite to the QSO spectra, we find they are well-fitted by a normal QSO with up to AV ∼ 4 mag of line-of-sight dust extinction. Utilizing radio data from the LOFAR Two-metre Sky Survey (LoTSS) DR2, we identify a striking positive relationship between the amount of line-of-sight dust extinction towards a QSO and the radio detection fraction, that is not driven by radio-loud systems, redshift and/or luminosity effects. This demonstrates an intrinsic connection between dust reddening and the production of radio emission in QSOs, whereby the radio emission is most likely due to low-powered jets or winds/outflows causing shocks in a dusty environment. On the basis of this evidence, we suggest that red QSOs may represent a transitional ‘blow-out’ phase in the evolution of QSOs, where winds and outflows evacuate the dust and gas to reveal an unobscured blue QSO.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Surface-wave tomography of the Emeishan large igneous province (China): Magma storage system, hidden hotspot track, and its impact on the Capitanian mass extinction

Large igneous provinces (LIPs) are commonly associated with mass extinctions. However, the precise relations between LIPs and their impacts on biodiversity is enigmatic, given that they can be asynchronous. It has been proposed that the environmental impacts are primarily related to sill emplacement. Therefore, the structure of LIPs' magma storage system is critical because it dictates the occurrence and timing of mass extinction. We use surface-wave tomography to image the lithosphere under the Permian Emeishan large igneous province (ELIP) in southwestern China. We find a northeast-trending zone of high shear-wave velocity (Vs) and negative radial anisotropy (Vsv > Vsh; v and h are vertically and horizontally polarized S waves, respectively) in the crust and lithosphere. We rule out the possibilities of rifting or orogenesis to explain these seismic characteristics and interpret the seismic anomaly as a mafic-ultramafic, dike-dominated magma storage system of the ELIP. We further propose that the anomaly represents a hidden hotspot track that was emplaced before the ELIP eruption. A zone of higher velocity but less-negative radial anisotropy, on the hotspot track but to the northeast of the eruption center in the Panxi region, reflects an elevated proportion of sills emplaced at the incipient stage of the ELIP. Liberation of poisonous gases by the early sill intrusions explains why the mid-Capitanian global biota crisis preceded the peak ELIP eruption by 2–3 m.y.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mu2e - Extinction Monitor Research & Development

Current efforts are being conducted at Fermi National Laboratory to study potential violations in accepted theory that would otherwise suggest a restructuring of our fundamental understanding of the universe. Mu2e is one of these frontier projects that studies charged lepton flavor violation (CLFV) which if observed, would suggest physics beyond the Standard Model. Therefore, this note encompasses several projects that contribute to the fruition of Mu2e investigations. Due to the broad range of disciplinary inconsistencies that each project requires, all the work is being presented as a means of justifying contribution to Mu2e. The projects are comprised of a G4Beamline simulation analyzing 8GeV proton beam interaction with a titanium window of Recycler ring extinction rates using three Cherenkov radiation-based detectors and supplemental work for the implementation of a micro–Telecommunications Computing Architecture (MicroTCA) crate to establish a peak finding algorithm to ensure that the out-of-time beam is less than 10^-10 fractional level along with inefficiency analysis on scintillation counters for the Cosmic-Ray Veto (CRV) analysis. Preliminary results have been achieved for extinction rate simulation by achieving coincidence rates for 2/3-fold and 3/3-fold on the detectors in the order of 10^-9 and 10^-10, respectively. Only preliminary results of a triangular counter and four rectangular di-counters for the CRV have been realized but other non-experimental contributions were made to the development of the MicroTCA crate.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

Given the importance of climate in shaping species’ geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data—such that individuals at the cool edge of a species’ distribution should benefit from warming (the “leading edge”), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the “trailing edge”). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species’ distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming—the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species’ distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species’ distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗