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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Explaining System-Level Prognostics with Established Machine Learning Methods

System-level prognostics is crucial for ensuring reliability and enabling predictive maintenance in complex systems with interconnected components. This study presents a framework that integrates data-driven methods to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of a subsystem under multiple and concurrent faults within a nuclear power plant system with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). A nuclear power plant (NPP) operation was simulated to model the degradation behavior of NPP components, and four machine learning models—Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)—were evaluated for prognostics with a novel system RUL parameter. The LSTM model demonstrated potential superior repeatability, while SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) for explainability provided consistent and trustworthy global explanations. In contrast, LIME (Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations) offered localized interpretability but showed reduced stability for sequential data. Key findings include the interplay between component-level degradation and system-wide performance, with LSTM effectively capturing these dynamics through sequence-level predictions. The XAI techniques enhanced transparency by identifying critical features influencing model predictions and aligning with domain knowledge. Furthermore, this framework has significant implications for improving trust and understanding in predictive maintenance, particularly in safety-critical industries like nuclear energy.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

NuGraph2 with explainability: post-hoc explanations for geometric neural network predictions

With the growing popularity of artificial intelligence (AI) used for scientific applications, the ability of attribute a result to a reasoning process from the network is in high demand for robust scientific generalizations to hold. In this work we aim to motivate the need for and demonstrate the use of post-hoc explainability methods when applied to AI methods used in scientific applications. To this end, we introduce explainability add-ons to the existing graph neural network (GNN) for neutrino tagging, NuGraph2. The explanations take the form of a suite of techniques examining the output of the network (node classifications) and the edge connections between them, and probing of the latent space using novel general-purpose tools applied to this network. We show how none of these methods are singularly sufficient to show network ‘understanding’, but together can give insights into the processes used in classification. While these methods are tested on the NuGraph2 application, they can be applied to a broad range of networks, not limited to GNNs. The code for this work is publicly available on GitHub at https://github.com/voetberg/XNuGraph.

Voetberg, Margaret [Fermilab] (ORCID:0009000527154↗
DOE OSTI2025

SetBERT: the deep learning platform for contextualized embeddings and explainable predictions from high-throughput sequencing

MOTIVATION: High-throughput sequencing (HTS) is a modern sequencing technology used to profile microbiomes by sequencing thousands of short genomic fragments from the microorganisms within a given sample. This technology presents a unique opportunity for artificial intelligence to comprehend the underlying functional relationships of microbial communities. However, due to the unstructured nature of HTS data, nearly all computational models are limited to processing DNA sequences individually. This limitation causes them to miss out on key interactions between microorganisms, significantly hindering our understanding of how these interactions influence the microbial communities as a whole. Furthermore, most computational methods rely on post-processing of samples which could inadvertently introduce unintentional protocol-specific bias. RESULTS: Addressing these concerns, we present SetBERT, a robust pre-training methodology for creating generalized deep learning models for processing HTS data to produce contextualized embeddings and be fine-tuned for downstream tasks with explainable predictions. By leveraging sequence interactions, we show that SetBERT significantly outperforms other models in taxonomic classification with genus-level classification accuracy of 95%. Furthermore, we demonstrate that SetBERT is able to accurately explain its predictions autonomously by confirming the biological-relevance of taxa identified by the model. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: All source code is available at https://github.com/DLii-Research/setbert. SetBERT may be used through the q2-deepdna QIIME 2 plugin whose source code is available at https://github.com/DLii-Research/q2-deepdna.

Ludwig, David W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Patchy burn severity explains heterogeneous soil viral and prokaryotic responses to fire in a mixed conifer forest

ABSTRACT Effects of fire on soil viruses and virus–host dynamics are largely unexplored, despite known microbial contributions to biogeochemical processes and ecosystem recovery. Here, we assessed how viral and prokaryotic communities responded to a prescribed burn in a mixed conifer forest. We sequenced 91 viral-size fraction metagenomes (viromes) and 115 16S rRNA gene amplicon libraries from 120 samples: four samples at five timepoints (two before fire and three after fire) at six sites (four treatment, two control). We hypothesized that compositional differences would be most significant between burned and unburned soils, but instead, plot location best distinguished viral communities, more than treatment (burned or not), depth (0–3 or 3–6 cm), or timepoint. For both viruses and prokaryotes, some burned communities resembled unburned controls, while others were significantly different, revealing heterogeneous responses to fire. These patterns were explained by burn severity, here defined by soil chemistry. Viral but not prokaryotic richness decreased significantly with burn severity, and low viromic DNA yields indicated substantial loss of viral biomass at higher severity. The relative abundances of Firmicutes, Actinobacteriota, and the viruses predicted to infect them increased significantly with burn severity, suggesting survival and viral infection of these fire-responsive and potentially spore-forming taxa. The degree of burn severity experienced by each patch of soil, rather than burn status alone, differed over mere meters in the same fire. Therefore, our analyses highlight the importance of high-resolution, paired biogeochemical data to explain soil community responses to fire. IMPORTANCE The impact of fire on the soil microbiome, particularly on understudied soil viral communities, warrants investigation, given known microbial contributions to biogeochemical processes and ecosystem recovery. Here, we collected 120 soil samples before and after a prescribed burn in a mixed conifer forest to assess the impacts of this disturbance on soil viral and prokaryotic communities. We show that simple categorical comparisons of burned and unburned areas were insufficient to reveal the underlying community response patterns. The patchy nature of the fire (indicated by soil chemistry data) led to significant changes in viral and prokaryotic community composition in areas of high burn severity, while communities that experienced lower burn severity were indistinguishable from those in unburned controls. Our results highlight the importance of considering highly resolved burn severity and biogeochemical measurements, even in nearby soils after the same fire, in order to understand soil microbial responses to prescribed burns.

Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2024

An explainable variational autoencoder model for three-dimensional acoustic emission source localization in hollow cylindrical structures

We introduce an explainable variational autoencoder for three-dimensional (3D) localization of acoustic emission sources in hollow cylindrical structures, with an unsupervised approach. This research capitalizes on multi-arrival waveforms generated by helical path propagation in cylindrical geometries to enable efficient two-receiver localization. By integrating the modal characteristics of Lamb modes under multi-path conditions, we demonstrate that two sets of time-of-arrival differences and peak amplitudes extracted from one receiver can serve as effective localization features. This initial approach identifies four potential source locations, highlighting the feasibility of two-receiver source localization using traditional feature extraction methods. However, direct extraction can be challenging when mode overlaps occur, complicating the localization process. To address this, our work proposes a novel waveform-based method. This method leverages the consistent dispersion characteristics within isotropic materials, where each unique combination of mode arrival times and peak amplitudes constructs a distinct waveform. This distinctiveness overcomes the ambiguities associated with mode overlaps, significantly enhancing the method’s precision and robustness. Our approach adopts a data-driven strategy for waveform-based localization using variational autoencoder (VAE). VAE discerns waveform patterns for localization, while also addressing data uncertainties. The VAE’s encoder and decoder networks capture the localization process and the source’s influence on waveform generation, respectively, guiding latent variables to segregate waveforms by source in the latent space. The design of the learning process focuses on specific localization characteristics to enhance result explainability. Localization predictions are generated by projecting test waveforms, not included in the training set, onto a trained latent space. The prediction is determined using a nearest-neighbor approach based on the closest latent representation of a source. Validation with pencil-lead-break tests on a metallic pipe confirmed our method’s effectiveness, achieving an averaged 3D localization accuracy of 0.84.

Lee, Guan-Wei↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explaining Nonmerger Gamma-Ray Bursts and Broad-lined Supernovae with Close Binary Progenitors with Black Hole Central Engines

For over 25 yr, the origin of long-duration gamma-ray bursts (lGRBs) has been linked to the collapse of rotating massive stars. However, we have yet to pinpoint the stellar progenitor powering these transients. Moreover, the dominant engine powering the explosions remains open to debate. Observations of both lGRBs, supernovae associated with these GRBs, such as broad-line (BL) stripped-envelope (type Ic) supernovae (hereafter, Ic-BL), supernovae (SNe), and perhaps superluminous SNe, fast blue optical transients, and fast x-ray transients, may provide clues to both engines and progenitors. In this paper, we conduct a detailed study of the tight-binary formation scenario for lGRBs, comparing this scenario to other leading progenitor models. Combining this progenitor scenario with different lGRB engines, we can compare to existing data and make predictions for future observational tests. We find that the combination of the tight-binary progenitor scenario with the black hole accretion disk engine can explain lGRBs, low-luminosity GRBs, ultra-long GRBs, and Ic-BL. We discuss the various progenitor properties required for these different subclasses and note such systems would be future gravitational-wave merger sources. We show that the current literature on other progenitor-engine scenarios cannot explain all of these transient classes with a single origin, motivating additional work. We find that the tight-binary progenitor with a magnetar engine is excluded by existing observations. The observations can be used to constrain the properties of stellar evolution, the nature of the GRB, and the associated SN engines in lGRBs and Ic-BL. We discuss the future observations needed to constrain our understanding of these rare, but powerful, explosions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Explainable machine learning reveals that local structural motifs encode the thermodynamic state across the CuZr metallic glass-forming range

Metallic glasses derive their properties from the statistics of local atomic motifs rather than from long-range order, yet a quantitative, chemistry-specific link between motif populations and the underlying glassy state has remained elusive. In this work we combine large-scale molecular dynamics, Voronoi tessellation, deep neural networks, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to identify which local structural motifs define the glassy state of Cu—Zr metallic glasses. A dataset of 17,180 atomistic configurations spanning ten compositions (Cu 20 Zr 80 –Cu 80 Zr 20 ) and four quench rates (10 9 –10 12 K/s) is used to train a feed-forward neural network that regresses temperature across the 50–2000 K liquid–supercooled–glass range, achieving a mean absolute error of 19.89 K and R 2 = 0.9974, confirming that the local structural state is faithfully encoded in motif-level structure. SHAP analysis then reveals that a tightly coupled near-icosahedral family of motifs (coordination numbers (CN) 11–13, including the full icosahedron 001200 and its single-atom-perturbation sibling 10930) collectively encodes the thermodynamic state of the system across the full glass-forming range. The CN = 11–13 ordered members carry negative SHAP values at high populations, tracking the most deeply-quenched configurations, while 10930 shows the reversed signature consistent with its role as a soft-spot host whose population shrinks as the icosahedral network deepens. The analysis demonstrates that explainable machine learning can isolate the minimal motif vocabulary defining the glassy state and recovers the near-icosahedral building blocks previously identified by data-driven analyses of Cu—Zr. The approach provides a general, chemistry-specific route for characterizing the structural state of disordered materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable artificial intelligence relates perovskite luminescence images to current-voltage metrics

As the demand for low-cost, high-efficiency solar energy technologies grows, metal halide perovskite (MHP) solar cells have emerged as a promising candidate for next-generation photovoltaics due to their high power conversion efficiencies. However, their poor durability and issues with manufacturing consistency remain significant barriers to commercialization. In this work, we develop deep learning models to support materials characterization and provide insight into features and processes influencing performance. The models are trained using transfer learning of a pretrained model to predict relevant current-voltage (IV) metrics based on different combinations of input electroluminescence (EL) and photoluminescence (PL) images of MHP devices. We examine which image types are most informative in accurately predicting different IV metrics. Additionally, we use explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to provide insights into specific spatial features in the devices that drive differences in performance. We find that stabilized luminescence images (e.g. those collected after biasing the devices for at least 1 min) are better for predicting metrics of open-circuit voltage (by PL) and short-circuit current (by PL with EL), but that predicting fill factor and overall power output may use the time-evolution of EL images. Based on attribution masks generated by integrated gradients for each device performance metric, we further suggest different loss mechanisms associated with categories of large and small spatial defects. Overall, this case study highlights the potential applicability of XAI methodology for streamlining MHP device analysis and accelerating detailed understanding of the relationships between spatial defects and impacts on performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applications of explainable artificial intelligence in renewable energy research

Researchers in renewable energy are applying deep learning (DL) to a variety of problems from diverse renewable energy domains, such as biofuels, wind, solar, power systems, buildings, vehicles, and transportation systems. Improvements in accuracy may be demonstrated using DL in laboratory settings. However, the lack of interpretability of DL models poses a practical limitation to their utility in advancing scientific knowledge and in the deployment of DL models in safety-critical energy systems. In this article, we discuss explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) as one pathway toward more interpretable DL models. We explore a brief timeline of U.S. national laboratory interest in XAI, an overview and taxonomy of methods in the field of XAI, and a selection of applications across renewable energy research domains. We conclude by highlighting pivotal areas where XAI can accelerate innovation in artificial intelligence for renewable energy research and other essential future directions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Explainable physics-based constraints on reinforcement learning for accelerator optimization

We present a reinforcement learning (RL) framework for optimizing particle accelerator experiments that builds explainable physics-based constraints on agent behavior. The goal is to increase transparency and trust by letting users verify that the agent’s decision-making process incorporates suitable physics. Our algorithm uses a learnable surrogate function for physical observables, such as energy, and uses them to fine-tune how actions are chosen. This surrogate can be represented by a neural network or by an interpretable sparse dictionary model. We test our algorithm on a range of particle accelerator optimization environments designed to emulate the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility at Jefferson Lab. By examining the mathematical form of the learned constraint function, we are able to confirm the agent has learned to use the established physics of each environment. In addition, we find that the introduction of a physics-based surrogate enables our RL algorithms to reliably converge for difficult high-dimensional accelerator optimization environments.

explainability↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable AI for Multivariate Time Series Pattern Exploration: Latent Space Visual Analytics With Temporal Fusion Transformer and Variational Autoencoders in Power Grid Event Diagnosis

Detecting and analyzing complex patterns in multivariate time-series data is crucial for decision-making in urban and environmental system operations. However, challenges arise from the high dimensionality, intricate complexity, and interconnected nature of complex patterns, which hinder the understanding of their underlying physical processes. Existing AI methods often face limitations in interpretability, computational efficiency, and scalability, reducing their applicability in real-world scenarios. This paper proposes a novel visual analytics framework that integrates two generative AI models, Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) and Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), to reduce complex patterns into lower-dimensional latent spaces and visualize them in 2D using dimensionality reduction techniques such as PCA, t-SNE, and UMAP with DBSCAN. These visualizations, presented through coordinated and interactive views and tailored glyphs, enable intuitive exploration of complex multivariate temporal patterns, identifying patterns’ similarities and uncover their potential correlations for a better interpretability of the AI outputs. The framework is demonstrated through a case study on power grid signal data, where it identifies multi-label grid event signatures, including faults and anomalies with diverse root causes. Additionally, novel metrics and visualizations are introduced to validate the models and assess the performance, efficiency, and consistency of latent maps generated by VAE, which have been utilized in prior studies for latent space cartography and used as a benchmark in this study, and the emerging TFT architecture under various configurations. These analyses provide actionable insights for model parameter tuning and reliability improvements. Comparative results highlight that TFT achieves shorter run times and superior scalability to diverse time-series data shapes compared to VAE. This work advances fault diagnosis in multivariate time series, fostering explainable AI to support critical system operations.

Explainable AI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable Machine Learning for Functional Data

Black-box machine learning models are recognized as useful tools for prediction applications, but the algorithmic complexity of some models causes interpretation challenges. Explainability methods have been proposed to provide insight into these models, but there is little research focused on supervised modeling with functional data inputs. We argue that, especially in applications of high consequence, it is important to explicitly model the functional dependence in a black-box analysis to not obscure or misrepresent patterns in explanations. As such, we propose the V ariable importance E xplainable E lastic S hape A nalysis (VEESA) pipeline for training supervised machine learning models with functional inputs. The pipeline is an analysis process that includes the data preprocessing, modeling, and post-hoc explanations. The preprocessing is done using elastic functional principal components analysis, which accounts for vertical and horizontal variability in functional data and, ultimately, allows for explanations in the original data space that identify the important functional variability without bias due to correlated variables. Here, we demonstrate the pipeline on two high-consequence applications: explosives classification for national security and inkjet printer identification in forensic science. The applications exhibit the VEESA pipeline’s ability to provide an understanding of the characteristics of the functional data useful for prediction. Code for implementing the pipeline is available in the veesa R package (and supplemental python code).

Elastic Shape Analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable Synthesizability Prediction of Inorganic Crystal Polymorphs Using Large Language Models

Abstract We evaluate the ability of machine learning to predict whether a hypothetical crystal structure can be synthesized and explain those predictions to scientists. Fine‐tuned large language models (LLMs) trained on a human‐readable text description of the target crystal structure perform comparably to previous bespoke convolutional graph neural network methods, but better prediction quality can be achieved by training a positive‐unlabeled learning model on a text‐embedding representation of the structure. An LLM‐based workflow can then be used to generate human‐readable explanations for the types of factors governing synthesizability, extract the underlying physical rules, and assess the veracity of those rules. These explanations can guide chemists in modifying or optimizing non‐synthesizable hypothetical structures to make them more feasible for materials design.

Kim, Seongmin [Department of Chemical and Biologic↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable Synthesizability Prediction of Inorganic Crystal Polymorphs Using Large Language Models

Abstract We evaluate the ability of machine learning to predict whether a hypothetical crystal structure can be synthesized and explain those predictions to scientists. Fine‐tuned large language models (LLMs) trained on a human‐readable text description of the target crystal structure perform comparably to previous bespoke convolutional graph neural network methods, but better prediction quality can be achieved by training a positive‐unlabeled learning model on a text‐embedding representation of the structure. An LLM‐based workflow can then be used to generate human‐readable explanations for the types of factors governing synthesizability, extract the underlying physical rules, and assess the veracity of those rules. These explanations can guide chemists in modifying or optimizing non‐synthesizable hypothetical structures to make them more feasible for materials design.

Kim, Seongmin [Department of Chemical and Biologic↗
DOE OSTI2024

Explainable AI classification for parton density theory

Quantitatively connecting properties of parton distribution functions (PDFs, or parton densities) to the theoretical assumptions made within the QCD analyses which produce them has been a longstanding problem in HEP phenomenology. To confront this challenge, we introduce an ML-based explainability framework, XAI4PDF, to classify PDFs by parton flavor or underlying theoretical model using ResNet-like neural networks (NNs). By leveraging the differentiable nature of ResNet models, this approach deploys guided backpropagation to dissect relevant features of fitted PDFs, identifying x-dependent signatures of PDFs important to the ML model classifications. By applying our framework, we are able to sort PDFs according to the analysis which produced them while constructing quantitative, human-readable maps locating the x regions most affected by the internal theory assumptions going into each analysis. This technique expands the toolkit available to PDF analysis and adjacent particle phenomenology while pointing to promising generalizations.

Artificial Intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable multi-fidelity Bayesian neural network for distribution system state estimation

Distribution System State Estimation (DSSE) is frequently constrained by limited real-time measurements, the uncertainties introduced by distributed energy resources, and the presence of bad data. To address them, this paper proposes an enhanced Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Neural Network (MFBNN) DSSE approach. A low-fidelity layer based on a Deep Neural Network (DNN) is first pre-trained on pseudo-measurement data to learn fundamental state features. Subsequently, a high-fidelity Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) layer leverages limited but high-quality real-time measurements to refine these features, thereby achieving accurate DSSE. Additionally, the deep SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) is developed to quantify the influence of measurement data on DSSE through dual perspectives of global feature importance and local nodal contributions, establishing a hierarchical explainability framework for machine learning-based DSSE. Comparative studies conducted on the IEEE 13-bus system and a real-world 2135-node system from Dominion Energy demonstrate that the proposed method excels in estimation accuracy, even under situations of high noise levels, bad data, and missing data. Further comparisons with Weighted Least Squares (WLS) and other machine learning-based DSSE approaches verify that the proposed framework offers higher accuracy, improved interpretability, and enhanced robustness.

Bad data↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explaining drivers of housing prices with nonlinear hedonic regressions

Housing markets play a critical role in shaping the spatial and demographic evolution of urban areas. Simulating housing price dynamics can enhance projections of future urban development outcomes. However, traditional hedonic regressions for housing prices, which neglect nonlinear interactions among explanatory variables, often exhibit limited predictive performance. While machine learning (ML) methods can provide a more flexible representation of the relationships between predictors, they are often regarded as “black boxes” due to their complexity and lack of transparency. Interpretable ML techniques provide a promising route by combining the flexibility of ML methods with approaches to analyze the relationships between inputs and outputs. In this study, we employ interpretable ML to analyze the patterns driving the housing market in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. We train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict Baltimore housing prices based on structural characteristics (e.g., home size, number of stories) and locational attributes (e.g., distance to the city center). We then conduct sensitivity and Partial Dependence Plot (PDP) analyses to interpret the fitted ANN model. We find that the ML model achieves higher predictive accuracy and explains 16 % more of housing price variance than a traditional linear regression model. The interpretable ML model also reveals more nuanced and realistic nonlinear relationships between housing sales price and predictors as well as interactive effects underlying Baltimore home price dynamics. For instance, while the linear model indicates a steady housing price increase over time, our interpretable ML model detects a post-2008 decline, with smaller properties experiencing the sharpest drop.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Detecting thermodynamic phase transition via explainable machine learning of photoemission spectroscopy

Identifying thermodynamic signatures of electronic phases, such as superconductivity, is challenging in low-dimensional materials due to strong fluctuations and low probing volume. Spectroscopic methods are often used to identify new bulk phases, but their main measurable quantity—electronic energy gaps—is no longer an effective order parameter in low-dimensional and fluctuating systems. Combining angle-resolved photoemission with a domain-adversarial neural network, we report a data-driven method to identify thermodynamic phase transitions solely based on single-particle spectra. We demonstrate 97.6% accuracy in cuprate superconductor Bi 2 Sr 2 CaCu 2 O 8+δ with strong superconducting fluctuations. This model notably compensates for the scarcity of experimental data by leveraging virtually inexhaustible simulated data. Further, its explainability reveals the crucial role of in-gap spectral weight in detecting phase fluctuations and thermodynamic transitions. Our work pinpoints the spectroscopic signatures of fluctuating orders and enables using spectroscopy for machine-learning-assisted material discovery for low-dimensional and strong coupling systems.

2D materials↗