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Star-exoplanet interactions: A growing interdisciplinary field in heliophysics

Traditionally, heliophysics is characterized as the study of the near-Earth space environment, where plasmas and neutral gases originating from the Earth, the Sun, and other solar system bodies interact in ways that are detectable only through in-situ or close-range (usually within ~10 AU) remote sensing. As a result, heliophysics has data from the space environment around a handful of solar system objects, in particular the Sun and Earth. Comparatively, astrophysics has data from an extensive array of objects, but is more limited in temporal, spatial, and wavelength information from any individual object. Thus, our understanding of planetary space environments as a complex, multi-dimensional network of specific interacting systems may in the past have seemed to have little to do with the highly diverse space environments detected through astrophysical methods. Recent technological advances have begun to bridge this divide. Exoplanetary studies are opening up avenues to study planetary environments beyond our solar system, with missions like Kepler, TESS, and JWST, along with increasing capabilities of ground-based observations. At the same time, heliophysics studies are pushing beyond the boundaries of our heliosphere with Voyager, IBEX, and the future IMAP mission. The interdisciplinary field of star-exoplanet interactions is a critical, growing area of study that enriches heliophysics. A multidisciplinary approach to heliophysics enables us to better understand universal processes that operate in diverse environments, as well as the evolution of our solar system and extreme space weather. The expertise, data, theory, and modeling tools developed by heliophysicists are crucial in understanding the space environments of exoplanets, their host stars, and their potential habitability. The mutual benefit that heliophysics and exoplanetary studies offer each other depends on strong, continuing solar system-focused and Earth-focused heliophysics studies. The heliophysics discipline requires new targeted funding to support inter-divisional opportunities, including small multi-disciplinary research projects, large collaborative research teams, and observations targeting the heliophysics of planetary and exoplanet systems. Here we discuss areas of heliophysics-relevant exoplanetary research, observational opportunities and challenges, and ways to promote the inclusion of heliophysics within the wider exoplanetary community.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Analytical Modeling of Exoplanet Transit Spectroscopy with Dimensional Analysis and Symbolic Regression

Abstract The physical characteristics and atmospheric chemical composition of newly discovered exoplanets are often inferred from their transit spectra, which are obtained from complex numerical models of radiative transfer. Alternatively, simple analytical expressions provide insightful physical intuition into the relevant atmospheric processes. The deep-learning revolution has opened the door for deriving such analytical results directly with a computer algorithm fitting to the data. As a proof of concept, we successfully demonstrate the use of symbolic regression on synthetic data for the transit radii of generic hot-Jupiter exoplanets to derive a corresponding analytical formula. As a preprocessing step, we use dimensional analysis to identify the relevant dimensionless combinations of variables and reduce the number of independent inputs, which improves the performance of the symbolic regression. The dimensional analysis also allowed us to mathematically derive and properly parameterize the most general family of degeneracies among the input atmospheric parameters that affect the characterization of an exoplanet atmosphere through transit spectroscopy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Methods for Incorporating Model Uncertainty into Exoplanet Atmospheric Analysis

A key goal of exoplanet spectroscopy is to measure atmospheric properties, such as abundances of chemical species, in order to connect them to our understanding of atmospheric physics and planet formation. In this new era of high-quality JWST data, it is paramount that these measurement methods are robust. When comparing atmospheric models to observations, multiple candidate models may produce reasonable fits to the data. Typically, conclusions are reached by selecting the best-performing model according to some metric. This ignores model uncertainty in favor of specific model assumptions, potentially leading to measured atmospheric properties that are overconfident and/or incorrect. In this paper, we compare three ensemble methods for addressing model uncertainty by combining posterior distributions from multiple analyses: Bayesian model averaging, a variant of Bayesian model averaging using leave-one-out predictive densities, and stacking of predictive distributions. We demonstrate these methods by fitting the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) + Spitzer transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter HD 209458b using models with different cloud and haze prescriptions. All of our ensemble methods lead to uncertainties on retrieved parameters that are larger but more realistic and consistent with physical and chemical expectations. Since they have not typically accounted for model uncertainty, uncertainties of retrieved parameters from HST spectra have likely been underreported. We recommend stacking as the most robust model combination method. Our methods can be used to combine results from independent retrieval codes and from different models within one code. They are also widely applicable to other exoplanet analysis processes, such as combining results from different data reductions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A high internal heat flux and large core in a warm Neptune exoplanet

Interactions between exoplanetary atmospheres and internal properties have long been proposed to be drivers of the inflation mechanisms of gaseous planets and apparent atmospheric chemical disequilibrium conditions. However, transmission spectra of exoplanets have been limited in their ability to observationally confirm these theories owing to the limited wavelength coverage of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and inferences of single molecules, mostly H 2 O. Here, in this work, we present the panchromatic transmission spectrum of the approximately 750 K, low-density, Neptune-sized exoplanet WASP-107b using a combination of HST Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) and JWST Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) and Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI). From this spectrum, we detect spectroscopic features resulting from H 2 O (21σ), CH 4 (5σ), CO (7σ), CO 2 (29σ), SO 2 (9σ) and NH 3 (6σ). The presence of these molecules enables constraints on the atmospheric metal enrichment (M/H is 10–18× solar), vertical mixing strength (log 10 K zz = 8.4–9.0 cm 2 s -1 ) and internal temperature (>345 K). The high internal temperature is suggestive of tidally driven inflation4 acting on a Neptune-like internal structure, which can naturally explain the large radius and low density of the planet. These findings suggest that eccentricity-driven tidal heating is a critical process governing atmospheric chemistry and interior-structure inferences for most of the cool (<1,000 K) super-Earth-to-Saturn-mass exoplanet population.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Stability of hydrides in sub-Neptune exoplanets with thick hydrogen-rich atmospheres

Many sub-Neptune exoplanets have been believed to be composed of a thick hydrogen-dominated atmosphere and a high-temperature heavier-element-dominant core. From an assumption that there is no chemical reaction between hydrogen and silicates/metals at the atmosphere–interior boundary, the cores of sub-Neptunes have been modeled with molten silicates and metals (magma) in previous studies. In large sub-Neptunes, pressure at the atmosphere–magma boundary can reach tens of gigapascals where hydrogen is a dense liquid. A recent experiment showed that hydrogen can induce the reduction of Fe 2+ in (Mg,Fe)O to Fe 0 metal at the pressure–temperature conditions relevant to the atmosphere–interior boundary. However, it is unclear whether Mg, one of the abundant heavy elements in the planetary interiors, remains oxidized or can be reduced by H. Our experiments in the laser-heated diamond-anvil cell found that heating of MgO + Fe to 3,500 to 4,900 K (close to or above their melting temperatures) in an H medium leads to the formation of Mg 2 FeH 6 and H 2 O at 8 to 13 GPa. At 26 to 29 GPa, the behavior of the system changes, and Mg–H in an H fluid and H 2 O were detected with separate FeH x . The observations indicate the dissociation of the Mg–O bond by H and subsequent production of hydride and water. Therefore, the atmosphere–magma interaction can lead to a fundamentally different mineralogy for sub-Neptune exoplanets compared with rocky planets. The change in the chemical reaction at the higher pressures can also affect the size demographics (i.e., “radius cliff”) and the atmosphere chemistry of sub-Neptune exoplanets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Utilizing a Database of Simulated Geometric Albedo Spectra for Photometric Characterization of Rocky Exoplanet Atmospheres

In anticipation of future flagship missions focused on the goal of achieving direct imaging of rocky exoplanets, we have developed a database of models to help the community examine the potential spectral characteristics of a broad range of rocky planet atmospheres. Using the publicly available Planetary Spectrum Generator, we have computed a grid of 141,600 rocky exoplanet geometric albedo spectra across a seven-dimensional parameter space. Using this grid, we have performed a color–color analysis seeking to identify the most useful near-UV and red or near-infrared photometric follow-up channels to combine with a green-optical (discovery) spectral channel. We found that a combination of filters at 0.4, 0.58, and ∼0.8 μm were able to distinguish between atmospheres with moderate-to-high concentrations of four different dominant absorbing constituents, given at least 10 hr of observation on a star at 10 parsec with a 15 m class space telescope; however, more moderate abundances similar to those of solar system rocky bodies would be more challenging to detect. We recommend that future missions seeking to characterize directly imaged rocky exoplanets by colors alone further consider multiband photometry as a first discriminator for planetary characteristics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Giant Outer Transiting Exoplanet Mass (GOT ‘EM) Survey. I. Confirmation of an Eccentric, Cool Jupiter with an Interior Earth-sized Planet Orbiting Kepler-1514

Despite the severe bias of the transit method of exoplanet discovery toward short orbital periods, a modest sample of transiting exoplanets with orbital periods greater than 100 days is known. Long-term radial velocity (RV) surveys are pivotal to confirming these signals and generating a set of planetary masses and densities for planets receiving moderate to low irradiation from their host stars. Here we conduct RV observations of Kepler-1514 from the Keck I telescope using the High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer. From these data, we measure the mass of the statistically validated giant (1.108 ± 0.023 R {sub J}) exoplanet Kepler-1514 b with a 218-day orbital period as 5.28 ± 0.22 M {sub J}. The bulk density of this cool (∼390 K) giant planet is 4.82{sub −0.25}{sup +0.26}g cm{sup −3}, consistent with a core supported by electron degeneracy pressure. We also infer an orbital eccentricity of 0.401{sub −0.014}{sup +0.013} from the RV and transit observations, which is consistent with planet–planet scattering and disk cavity migration models. The Kepler-1514 system contains an Earth-size, Kepler Object of Interest on a 10.5-day orbit that we statistically validate against false-positive scenarios, including those involving a neighboring star. The combination of the brightness (V = 11.8) of the host star and the long period, low irradiation, and high density of Kepler-1514 b places this system among a rare group of known exoplanetary systems and as one that is amenable to continued study.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Disequilibrium Chemistry in Exoplanet Atmospheres Observed with the Hubble Space Telescope

Literature on the theory of exoplanet atmospheric disequilibrium chemistry is rich, although its observational counterpart has yet to emerge beyond the hints provided by a few targets in dedicated studies. We report results from an uniform data reduction and analysis for a catalog of 62 Hubble Space Telescope exoplanet transit spectra where we assess the atmospheric model preference for disequilibrium chemistry (i.e., water vapor is not the dominant absorption spectral signature) over thermal equilibrium chemistry in a comparative planetology context. Where model preference assessment is possible, we find that disequilibrium occurs in about half of the atmospheres, indicating that disequilibrium processes play an important role in the composition of exoplanet atmospheres. While very hot atmospheres, over 1800 K, prefer equilibrium chemistry, we find a clustering of preference for disequilibrium in the 1200–1800 K temperature range. We suggest that UV-augmented thermochemistry may play a significant role for those atmospheres.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Detecting Magnetic Fields in Exoplanets with Spectropolarimetry of the Helium Line at 1083 nm

The magnetic fields of the solar system’s planets provide valuable insights into their interiors and can have dramatic consequences for the evolution of their atmospheres and interaction with the solar wind. However, we have little direct knowledge of magnetic fields in exoplanets. Here we present a method for detecting magnetic fields in the atmospheres of close-in exoplanets based on spectropolarimetric transit observations at the wavelength of the helium line at 1083 nm. This methodology has been successfully applied for exploring magnetic fields in solar coronal filaments. Strong absorption signatures (transit depths on the order of a few percent) in the 1083 nm line have recently been observed for several close-in exoplanets. We show that in the conditions in these escaping atmospheres, metastable helium atoms should be optically pumped by the starlight and, for field strengths more than a few × 10 -4 G, should align with the magnetic field. This results in linearly polarized absorption at 1083 nm that traces the field direction (the Hanle effect), which we explore by both analytic computation and the HAZEL numerical code. The linear polarization $\sqrt{{Q}^{2}+{U}^{2}}/I$ ranges from ~10 -3 in optimistic cases down to a few × 10 -5 for particularly unfavorable cases, with very weak dependence on field strength. The line-of-sight component of the field results in a slight circular polarization (the Zeeman effect), also reaching $V/I\sim \mathrm{few}\times {10}^{-5}({B}_{\parallel }/10\,{\rm{G}})$. We discuss the detectability of these signals with current (SPIRou) and future (Extremely Large Telescope) high-resolution infrared spectropolarimeters, and we briefly comment on possible sources of astrophysical contamination.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Autodifferentiable Spectrum Model for High-dispersion Characterization of Exoplanets and Brown Dwarfs

We present an autodifferentiable spectral modeling of exoplanets and brown dwarfs. This model enables a fully Bayesian inference of the high-dispersion data to fit the ab initio line-by-line spectral computation to the observed spectrum by combining it with the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in recent probabilistic programming languages. An open-source code, ExoJAX, developed in this study, was written in Python using the GPU/TPU compatible package for automatic differentiation and accelerated linear algebra, JAX. We validated the model by comparing it with existing opacity calculators and a radiative transfer code and found reasonable agreements for the output. As a demonstration, we analyzed the high-dispersion spectrum of a nearby brown dwarf, Luhman 16 A, and found that a model including water, carbon monoxide, and H 2 /He collision-induced absorption was well fitted to the observed spectrum (R = 10 5 and 2.28-2.30 μm). As a result, we found that T0 = 1295$^{-32}_{+35}$ K at 1 bar and C/O = 0.62 ± 0.03, which is slightly higher than the solar value. This work demonstrates the potential of a full Bayesian analysis of brown dwarfs and exoplanets as observed by high-dispersion spectrographs and also directly imaged exoplanets as observed by high-dispersion coronagraphy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Photochemical Phosphorus-Hydrogen-Oxygen Network for Hydrogen-dominated Exoplanet Atmospheres

Due to the detection of phosphine (PH 3 ) in the solar system gas giants Jupiter and Saturn, PH 3 has long been suggested to be detectable in exosolar substellar atmospheres too. However, to date, direct detection of phosphine has proven to be elusive in exoplanet atmosphere surveys. We construct an updated phosphorus-hydrogen-oxygen (PHO) photochemical network suitable for the simulation of gas giant hydrogen-dominated atmospheres. Using this network, we examine PHO photochemistry in hot Jupiter and warm Neptune exoplanet atmospheres at solar and enriched metallicities. Our results show for HD 189733b-like hot Jupiters that HOPO, PO, and P 2 are typically the dominant P carriers at pressures important for transit and emission spectra, rather than PH 3 . For GJ1214b-like warm Neptune atmospheres our results suggest that at solar metallicity PH 3 is dominant in the absence of photochemistry, but is generally not in high abundance for all other chemical environments. At 10 and 100 times solar, small oxygenated phosphorus molecules such as HOPO and PO dominate for both thermochemical and photochemical simulations. The network is able to reproduce well the observed PH 3 abundances on Jupiter and Saturn. Despite progress in improving the accuracy of the PHO network, large portions of the reaction rate data remain with approximate, uncertain, or missing values, which could change the conclusions of the current study significantly. Improving understanding of the kinetics of phosphorus-bearing chemical reactions will be a key undertaking for astronomers aiming to detect phosphine and other phosphorus species in both rocky and gaseous exoplanetary atmospheres in the near future.

atmospheric composition↗

Implications of the iron oxide phase transition on the interiors of rocky exoplanets

The discovery of an extraordinary number of extrasolar planets, characterized by an unexpected variety of sizes, masses and orbits, challenges our understanding of the formation and evolution of the planets in the Solar System and the perception of the Earth as the prototypical habitable world. Many exoplanets appear to be rocky and yet more massive than the Earth, with expected pressures and temperatures of hundreds of gigapascal and thousands of Kelvin in their deep interiors. At these conditions, the properties of bridgmanite and ferropericlase, expected to dominate their mantles, are largely unconstrained, limiting our knowledge of their interior structure. Here we used nano-second X-ray diffraction and dynamic compression to experimentally investigate the atomic structure and density of iron oxide (FeO), one of the end-members of the (Mg,Fe)O ferropericlase solid solution, up to 700 GPa, a pressure exceeding the core–mantle boundary of a 5 Earth masses planet. Our data document the stability of the high-pressure cesium-chloride B2 structure above 300 GPa, well below the pressure required for magnesium oxide (MgO) to adopt the same phase. These observations, complemented by the calculation of the binary MgO–FeO phase diagram, reveal complex stratification and rheology inside large terrestrial exoplanets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Cloud Atlas: High-precision HST/WFC3/IR Time-resolved Observations of Directly Imaged Exoplanet HD 106906b

HD 106906b is an ∼11M{sub Jup}, ∼15 Myr old directly imaged exoplanet orbiting at an extremely large distance from its host star. The wide separation (7.″11) between HD 106906b and its host star greatly reduces the difficulty in direct-imaging observations, making it one of the most favorable directly imaged exoplanets for detailed characterization. In this paper, we present HST/WFC3/IR time-resolved observations of HD 106906b in the F127M, F139M, and F153M bands. We have achieved ∼1% precision in the lightcurves in all three bands. The F127M lightcurve demonstrates marginally detectable (2.7σ significance) variability with a best-fitting period of 4 hr, while the lightcurves in the other two bands are consistent with flat lines. We construct primary-subtracted deep images and use these images to exclude additional companions to HD 106906 that are more massive than 4 M{sub Jup} and locate at projected distances of more than ∼500 au. We measure the astrometry of HD 106906b in two HST/WFC3 epochs and achieve precisions better than 2.5 mas. The position angle and separation measurements do not deviate from those in the 2004 HST/ACS/HRC images for more than 1σ uncertainty. We provide the HST/WFC3 astrometric results for 25 background stars that can be used as reference sources in future precision astrometry studies. Our observations also provide the first 1.4 μm water band photometric measurement for HD 106906b. HD 106906b’s spectral energy distribution and the best-fitting BT-Settl model have an inconsistency in the 1.4 μm water absorption band, which highlights the challenges in modeling atmospheres of young planetary-mass objects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Toward Complete Characterization: Prospects for Directly Imaging Transiting Exoplanets

High-contrast direct imaging of exoplanets can provide many important observables, including measurements of the orbit, spectra that probe the lower layers of the atmosphere, and phase variations of the planet, but cannot directly measure planet radius or mass. Our future understanding of directly imaged exoplanets will therefore rely on extrapolated models of planetary atmospheres and bulk composition, which need robust calibration. We estimate the population of extrasolar planets that could serve as calibrators for these models. Critically, this population of “standard planets” must be accessible to both direct imaging and the transit method, allowing for radius measurement. We show that the search volume of a direct imaging mission eventually overcomes the transit probability falloff with semimajor axis, so that as long as cold planets are not exceedingly rare, the population of transiting planets and directly imageable planets overlaps. Using current extrapolations of Kepler occurrence rates, we estimate that ∼8 standard planets could be characterized shortward of 800 nm with an ambitious future direct imaging mission like LUVOIR-A and several dozen could be detected at the V band. We show the design space that would expand the sample size and discuss the extent to which ground- and space-based surveys could detect this small but crucial population of planets.

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A Coupled Analysis of Atmospheric Mass Loss and Tidal Evolution in XUV Irradiated Exoplanets: The TRAPPIST-1 Case Study

Exoplanets residing close to their stars can experience evolution of both their physical structures and their orbits due to the influence of their host stars. In this work, we present a coupled analysis of dynamical tidal dissipation and atmospheric mass loss for exoplanets in X-ray and ultraviolet (XUV) irradiated environments. As our primary application, we use this model to study the TRAPPIST-1 system and place constraints on the interior structure and orbital evolution of the planets. We start by reporting on an ultraviolet continuum flux measurement (centered around ∼1900 Å) for the star TRAPPIST-1, based on 300 ks of Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory data, and which enables an estimate of the XUV-driven thermal escape arising from XUV photodissociation for each planet. We find that the X-ray flaring luminosity, measured from our X-ray detections, of TRAPPIST-1 is 5.6 × 10{sup −4} L {sub *}, while the full flux including non-flaring periods is 6.1 × 10{sup −5} L {sub *}, when L {sub *} is TRAPPIST-1's bolometric luminosity. We then construct a model that includes both atmospheric mass loss and tidal evolution and requires the planets to attain their present-day orbital elements during this coupled evolution. We use this model to constrain the ratio Q{sup ′}=3Q/2k{sub 2} for each planet. Finally, we use additional numerical models implemented with the Virtual Planet Simulator VPLanet to study ocean retention for these planets using our derived system parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Hubble Space Telescope's Near-UV and Optical Transmission Spectrum of Earth as an Exoplanet

We observed the 2019 January total lunar eclipse with the Hubble Space Telescope’s STIS spectrograph to obtain the first near-UV (1700–3200 Å) observation of Earth as a transiting exoplanet. The observatories and instruments that will be able to perform transmission spectroscopy of exo-Earths are beginning to be planned, and characterizing the transmission spectrum of Earth is vital to ensuring that key spectral features (e.g., ozone, or O{sub 3}) are appropriately captured in mission concept studies. O{sub 3} is photochemically produced from O{sub 2}, a product of the dominant metabolism on Earth today, and it will be sought in future observations as critical evidence for life on exoplanets. Ground-based observations of lunar eclipses have provided the Earth’s transmission spectrum at optical and near-IR wavelengths, but the strongest O{sub 3} signatures are in the near-UV. We describe the observations and methods used to extract a transmission spectrum from Hubble lunar eclipse spectra, and identify spectral features of O{sub 3} and Rayleigh scattering in the 3000–5500 Å region in Earth’s transmission spectrum by comparing to Earth models that include refraction effects in the terrestrial atmosphere during a lunar eclipse. Our near-UV spectra are featureless, a consequence of missing the narrow time span during the eclipse when near-UV sunlight is not completely attenuated through Earth’s atmosphere due to extremely strong O{sub 3} absorption and when sunlight is transmitted to the lunar surface at altitudes where it passes through the O{sub 3} layer rather than above it.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Tycho: Realistically Simulating Exoplanets within Stellar Clusters. I. Improving the Monte Carlo Approach

To fully understand the diverse population of exoplanets, we must study their early lives within open clusters, the birthplace of most stars with masses >0.5M {sub ⊙} (including those currently in the field). Indeed, when we observe planets within clustered environments, we notice highly eccentric and odd systems that suggest the importance of dynamical pathways created by interactions with additional bodies (as in the case of HD 285507b). However, it has proven difficult to investigate these effects, as many current numerical solvers for the multi-scale N-body problem are simplified and limited in scope. To remedy this, we aim to create a physically complete computational solution to explore the role of stellar close encounters and interplanetary interactions in producing the observed exoplanet populations for both open cluster stars and field stars. We present a new code, Tycho, which employs a variety of different computational techniques, including multiple N-body integration methods, close encounter handling, modified Monte Carlo scattering experiments, and a variety of empirically informed initial conditions. We discuss the methodology in detail, and its implementation within the AMUSE software framework. Approximately 1% of our systems are promptly disrupted by star-star encounters contributing to the rogue planets occurrence rate. Additionally, we find that close encounters which that perturb long-period planets lead to 38.3% of solar-system-like planetary systems becoming long-term unstable.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Predictions of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Exoplanet Survey. II. Free-floating Planet Detection Rates

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) will perform a Galactic Exoplanet Survey (RGES) to discover bound exoplanets with semimajor axes greater than 1 au using gravitational microlensing. Roman will even be sensitive to planetary-mass objects that are not gravitationally bound to any host star. Such free-floating planetary-mass objects (FFPs) will be detected as isolated microlensing events with timescales shorter than a few days. A measurement of the abundance and mass function of FFPs is a powerful diagnostic of the formation and evolution of planetary systems, as well as the physics of the formation of isolated objects via direct collapse. We show that Roman will be sensitive to FFP lenses that have masses from that of Mars (0.1 M {sub ⊕}) to gas giants (M ≳ 100 M {sub ⊕}) as isolated lensing events with timescales from a few hours to several tens of days, respectively. We investigate the impact of the detection criteria on the survey, especially in the presence of finite-source effects for low-mass lenses. The number of detections will depend on the abundance of such FFPs as a function of mass, which is at present poorly constrained. Assuming that FFPs follow the fiducial mass function of cold, bound planets adapted from Cassan et al., we estimate that Roman will detect ∼250 FFPs with masses down to that of Mars (including ∼60 with masses ≤ M {sub ⊕}). We also predict that Roman will improve the upper limits on FFP populations by at least an order of magnitude compared to currently existing constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗