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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2

A Data-Driven Framework for Power System Event Type Identification via Safe Semi-Supervised Techniques

Herein this paper investigates the use of phasor measurement unit (PMU) data with deep learning techniques to construct real-time event identification models for transmission networks. Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources represents a great opportunity to achieve decarbonization, as well as challenges in systematic situational awareness. When high-resolution PMU data and sufficient manually recorded event labels are available, the power event identification problem is defined as a statistical classification problem that can be solved by numerous cutting-edge classifiers. However, in real grids, collecting tremendous high-quality event labels is quite expensive. Utilities frequently have a large number of event records without in-depth details (i.e., unlabeled events). To bridge this gap, we propose a novel semi-supervised learning-based method to improve the performance of event classifiers trained with a limited number of labeled events by exploiting the information from massive unlabeled events. In other words, compared to existing data-driven methods, our method requires only a small portion of labeled data to achieve a similar level of accuracy. Meanwhile, this work discusses and addresses the performance degradation caused by class distribution mismatch between the training set and the real applications. Based on the proposed safe learning mechanism, our model does not directly use all unlabeled events during model training, but selectively uses them through a comprehensive evaluation procedure. Numerical studies on a sizable PMU dataset have been used to validate the performance of the proposed method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Search for Non-resonant Higgs Boson Pair Production in the Four Bottom Quark Decay Channel With the CMS Experiment

This dissertation presents a search for non-resonant Higgs boson pair production, focusing on the four bottom quark decay channel. It explores the gluon fusion and vector boson fusion production mechanisms. The analysis is performed with a dataset of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, collected by the CMS detector at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of around 138 inverse femtobarns. Innovative techniques in the areas of object identification, event categorization, signal identification, and background modeling are used to maximize the analysis sensitivity. No excess of signal events are observed relative to the background-only expectation, and 95% CL upper limits on the production cross section are set. The observed upper limit on the standard model production cross section is set at 3.6 times the theoretical expectation. At the time of writing this dissertation, it is the most stringent constraint at the LHC from an individual channel. Furthermore, the observed constraint on the coupling modifier of the Higgs boson self-interaction is set between -2.3 and 9.4. The observed constraint on the coupling modifier of the di-vector-boson-di-Higgs-boson interaction is set between -0.1 and 2.2.

Guerrero Ibarra, Guerrero Fernando↗

Post-Event Fault Identification with Machine Learning for Protection System Validation

Power system protection devices have transitioned over the past few decades from mechanical to analog devices, then to solid state and finally digital. Relays and their associated critical network of equipment have significantly increased in complexity. Even internally, relays have gained significant intricacy, with relatively simple overcurrent or differential functions now being assisted by a myriad of other functions. This is necessary as the grid becomes more complex, but it brings increased difficulty in monitoring and upkeep. Misoperation caused by accidental improper relay settings or deliberate malicious actions is a constant challenge faced by all utilities. These improper settings can be difficult to identify and may require exhaustive post-mortem analysis, typically after a major outage event has already occurred. A mechanism is needed for monitoring the behavior of protection systems to validate that their performance falls within expectations. Relays that fail to isolate a fault or trip when there is no system disturbance can be flagged for settings review in situations where this behavior may not have been noticed due to manual restoration or backup protection operations. This work presents a concept for a machine learning (ML) system capable of validating the performance of protection systems by identifying fault events and characterizing protection system responses based solely on available current and voltage measurements. As a first step in its development, an experimental dataset is generated, and a random forest model is implemented with high accuracy in distinguishing four power system scenarios.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Accelerating End-to-End Deep Learning for Particle Reconstruction using CMS open data

Machine learning algorithms are gaining ground in high energy physics for applications in particle and event identification, physics analysis, detector reconstruction, simulation and trigger. Currently, most data-analysis tasks at LHC experiments benefit from the use of machine learning. Incorporating these computational tools in the experimental framework presents new challenges. This paper reports on the implementation of the end-to-end deep learning with the CMS software framework and the scaling of the end-to-end deep learning with multiple GPUs. The end-to-end deep learning technique combines deep learning algorithms and low-level detector representation for particle and event identification. We demonstrate the end-to-end implementation on a top quark benchmark and perform studies with various hardware architectures including single and multiple GPUs and Google TPU.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Adversarial Attacks on Deep Neural Network-based Power System Event Classification Models

Online event classification is essential to strengthening the reliability of the power transmission system. Recently, deep learning based methods have achieved great success in numerous domains such as computer vision and natural language processing. Researchers began to adopt deep learning based methods to solve the power system event identification problem and achieved effective results. However, these previous works do not consider that deep learning models are vulnerable to adversarial attacks, potentially influencing real-world applications' reliability. In this paper, we adopt several adversarial attack mechanisms by adding tailored noise signal to the input Phasor Measurement Units (PMU) time series and make the deep learning model misclassify the power system event. This numerical study discloses that current state-of-the-art deep learning based power system event classifiers are extremely vulnerable to adversarial attacks, which may jeopardize the reliability of the power transmission system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Full Moment Tensor Solutions of U.S. Underground Nuclear Tests for Event Screening and Yield Estimation

Moment tensor (MT) solutions are proving increasingly valuable in explosion monitoring, especially now that they are more routinely calculated for the unconstrained, full (six component) MT. In this study, we have calculated MTs for U.S. underground nuclear tests conducted at the Nevada National Security Site using seismic recordings primarily from the Livermore Nevada Network. We are able to determine them for 130 nuclear explosions from 1970 to 1996 for a range of yields and under a variety of material conditions, which we have supplemented with 10 additional chemical explosions at the test site. The result is an extensive database of MTs that can be used to assess the performance of important monitoring tasks such as event identification and yield determination. We test the explosion event screening on the fundamental lune of the MT eigensphere and find MT screening to be a robust discriminant between earthquakes and explosions. We then explore the estimation of moment-derived yield, in which we find that material properties are the largest contributor to differences in the estimated moment-to-yield ratio. Additionally, further research conducted on this dataset can be used to develop, test, and improve various explosion monitoring methodologies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Alternative Datasets for Identification of Earth Science Events and Data

Alternative, or non-traditional, data sources can be used to generate datasets which can in turn be analyzed for temporal, spatial and climatological patterns. Events and case studies inferred from the analysis of these patterns can be used by the remote sensing community to more effectively search for Earth observation data. In this paper, we present a new alternative Earth science dataset created from the National Weather Service’s Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) documents. We then present an exploratory methodology for identifying interesting climatological patterns within the AFD data and a corresponding motivating example as to how these data and patterns can be used to search for relevant events or case studies.

Alternative data↗

Phasor-Measurement-Unit-Based Data Analytics Using Digital Twin and PhasorAnalytics Software

A major objective of this project was to apply GE’s commercial machine learning and data analytics toolsets to large-scale, real-world, anonymized Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) datasets in order to extract signatures, correlated and/or causal factors, and precursor patterns associated with significant power system phenomena. The project had a particular emphasis on extraction of insights relevant to asset health monitoring, real-time load modeling and cybersecurity monitoring. Additionally, the team was directed to undertake a comprehensive data quality analysis for the provided datasets and encouraged to estimate the ‘machine-learning readiness’ of the datasets by documenting any major obstacles to the application of commercial machine learning algorithms. To accomplish the aforementioned objectives, the project team’s work centered around the identification of key event signatures and application of the identified event signatures for event detection and event classification. The industry-validated, semi-supervised machine learning strategy employed for event signature identification involved several major tasks, including data-preprocessing, generation of an overabundance of features, normal data identification, normality modeling, and event signature identification through a methodical, quantitative ranking of features in order of relevance to each studied event type. Throughout the project, data quality issues and mitigation techniques were investigated. In this report, insights are provided regarding the readiness of the provided synchrophasor datasets for application of machine learning and data analytics. The methodologies employed for this technical strategy are summarized in this report. With regards to data preprocessing and feature generation, the provided Training and Test Datasets were ingested into GE’s big data environment. Subsequently, the team applied bad data cleansing and data imputation scripts, event detection scripts, and application programming interfaces (APIs) to the datasets for convenient data access. The project team completed development and validation of dozens of physics-based, statistics-based and transformation-based feature functions used for the extraction of over 60 synchrophasor features. Using a new parallel feature generation technology developed on this project, over 60 features have been rapidly generated for the full two years’ worth of Training and Test Dataset data associated with both the Eastern and Western interconnects. Even accommodating for temporal down-sampling inherent to the feature extraction procedure, this parallel feature generation activity resulted in a massive feature set with a storage requirement approximately equal to that of the raw training dataset itself. With regards to normal data identification and normality modeling, a normality model was built using the feature data extracted from the Training Dataset and iteratively refined subsequent to incremental adjustments and expansions of the Training Dataset feature data. With respect to event characterization and signature identification, an event signature identification pipeline was developed and used in conjunction with the normality model to identify over 15 event signatures for key event categories within the Training Dataset. The identified event signatures were used to characterize hundreds of key events in terms of relative severity, duration, and location of the event. An investigation was undertaken to identify correlated and causal factors involved in transformer events. A separate investigation into temporal trends in ring-down analysis results was undertaken to determine possible associations between system dynamics and various other factors such as loading, season or year. To validate the identified event signatures, additional work was undertaken to develop signature-based anomaly detection and classification tools suitable for convenient application to the synchrophasor datasets. The anomaly detection and classification tools, suitable for online application, were then applied to the entirety of the Eastern Interconnect Training and Test Datasets. Performance of the event detection and classification tools was evaluated upon receipt of the Test Dataset event logs (i.e., the labels for events contained in the Test Dataset), and promising results were obtained despite several challenges (documented herein) associated with application of supervised or semi-supervised machine learning methods to large-scale, anonymized datasets. Finally, the detection and classification tools were used to detect, classify, and characterize thousands of new events not included in the original event logs provided by the DOE within both the Training and Test Datasets.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Seismic Event Characterization Using Full Moment Tensors on the Hypersphere

Moment tensor solutions provide insights into the deformation that has occurred in the source region of a seismic event and are therefore of great value in identifying different types of seismic sources, such as when monitoring for underground nuclear tests. Despite this utility, inversion of waveforms recorded by seismometers for their full seismic moment tensor is not yet routine, and development of robust methods to classify events based on this information is in its infancy. Here, we assemble an inventory of 1405 full moment tensor solutions that include explosive, earthquake, and collapse events, and investigate the use of anisotropic probability distribution functions on the 5D hypersphere to discriminate between these sources. Using a Bayesian classifier, we obtain optimal success rates of 98.4% across all events and demonstrate that modification of the prior probabilities provides a natural way to alter the balance between not missing desirable events (such as explosions) versus misclassifying large numbers of undesired events (such as earthquakes). The approach is specifically designed to progress from traditional, bipolar event screening metrics to more generalized event identification across multiple types of seismic sources. Despite current databases containing insufficient numbers of events to definitively demonstrate at present, we also find intriguing evidence of subgroupings within individual source populations on the hypersphere, for example, between chemical and nuclear explosions, raising the potential possibility of discriminating between these event types in the future.

Geosciences↗

Machine learning-based jet and event classification at the Electron-Ion Collider with applications to hadron structure and spin physics

We explore machine learning-based jet and event identification at the future Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). We study the effectiveness of machine learning-based classifiers at relatively low EIC energies, focusing on (i) identifying the flavor of the jet and (ii) identifying the underlying hard process of the event. We propose applications of our machine learning-based jet identification in the key research areas at the future EIC and current Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider program, including enhancing constraints on (transverse momentum dependent) parton distribution functions, improving experimental access to transverse spin asymmetries, studying photon structure, and quantifying the modification of hadrons and jets in the cold nuclear matter environment in electron-nucleus collisions. We establish first benchmarks and contrast the estimated performance of flavor tagging at the EIC with that at the Large Hadron Collider. We perform studies relevant to aspects of detector design including particle identification, charge information, and minimum transverse momentum capabilities. Additionally, we study the impact of using full event information instead of using only information associated with the identified jet. These methods can be deployed either on suitably accurate Monte Carlo event generators, or, for several applications, directly on experimental data. We provide an outlook for ultimately connecting these machine learning-based methods with first principles calculations in quantum chromodynamics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Late-Notice HIE Investigation

Provide a response to MOWG action item 1410-01: Analyze close approaches which have required mission team action on short notice. Determine why the approaches were identified later in the process than most other events. Method: Performed an analysis to determine whether there is any correlation between late notice event identification and space weather, sparse tracking, or high drag objects, which would allow preventive action to be taken Examined specific late notice events identified by missions as problematic to try to identify root cause and attempt to relate them to the correlation analysis.

HIE↗

Vertical instability forecasting and controllability assessment of multi-device tokamak plasmas in DECAF with data-driven optimization

Abstract Reliable vertical position control will be an essential element of any future tokamak-based fusion power plant in order to reduce disruptions and maximize performance. We investigate methods to improve vertical controllability boundary determination in plasma operational space and demonstrate a data-driven approach based on direct pseudoinversion of operational space data that is rigorously quantitative, applicable in real-time plasma control systems, and physically intuitive to interpret. Applied to historical shot data from entire run campaigns on the MAST-U, KSTAR, and NSTX tokamaks, this approach, implemented in DECAF, improves vertical displacement event identification accuracy to 98.9%–100%. Further, we explore the application of a physics-based vertical stability metric as an early warning forecaster for vertical displacement events. The development of a linear surrogate model for the plasma current density profile, with a coefficient of determination of 0.992 on the training dataset, enables potential employment of this forecaster in real-time. The application of this approach on historical data from the MAST-U MU02 campaign yields a forecaster with 62.6% accuracy, indicating promise for this method when further refined and potentially coupled with other stability metrics.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

BayesMT: A Probabilistic Bayesian Framework for the Seismic Moment Tensor

Moment tensors (MTs) have long been used in earthquake and explosion source analysis, and there has been a renewed interest in how they can inform us about the seismic source, particularly in the geophysical monitoring community due to its application in event identification and yield analysis. However, parameter uncertainties in seismic MT inversion are rarely available. The inverse procedure often does not quantify MT model errors such as event location, data noise and Earth model that are essential for estimating solution robustness. To address this need, we propose to adopt the Bayesian probabilistic framework to incorporate uncertainties in MT inversions. In this study, we present the theoretical background of a probabilistic Bayesian framework for MT inversion accounting for model and measurements errors and illustrate the implementation of the method using a synthetic example.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Tool for Automated Retrieval of Generic Event Tracks (TARGET)

Methods have been developed to identify and track tornado-producing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) automatically over the continental United States, in order to facilitate systematic studies of these powerful and often destructive events. Several data sources were combined to ensure event identification accuracy. Records of watches and warnings issued by National Weather Service (NWS), and tornado locations and tracks from the Tornado History Project (THP) were used to locate MCSs in high-resolution precipitation observations and GOES infrared (11-micron) Rapid Scan Operation (RSO) imagery. Thresholds are then applied to the latter two data sets to define MCS events and track their developments. MCSs produce a broad range of severe convective weather events that are significantly affecting the living conditions of the populations exposed to them. Understanding how MCSs grow and develop could help scientists improve their weather prediction models, and also provide tools to decision-makers whose goals are to protect populations and their property. Associating storm cells across frames of remotely sensed images poses a difficult problem because storms evolve, split, and merge. Any storm-tracking method should include the following processes: storm identification, storm tracking, and quantification of storm intensity and activity. The spatiotemporal coordinates of the tracks will enable researchers to obtain other coincident observations to conduct more thorough studies of these events. In addition to their tracked locations, their areal extents, precipitation intensities, and accumulations all as functions of their evolutions in time were also obtained and recorded for these events. All parameters so derived can be catalogued into a moving object database (MODB) for custom queries. The purpose of this software is to provide a generalized, cross-platform, pluggable tool for identifying events within a set of scientific data based upon specified criteria with the possibility of storing identified events into a searchable database. The core of the application uses an implementation of the connected component labeling (CCL) algorithm to identify areas of interest, then uses a set of criteria to establish spatial and temporal relationships between identified components. The CCL algorithm is used for identifying objects within images for computer vision. This application applies it to scientific data sets using arbitrary criteria. The most novel concept was applying a generalized CCL implementation to scientific data sets for establishing events both spatially and temporally. The combination of several existing concepts (pluggable components, generalized CCL algorithm, etc.) into one application is also novel. In addition, how the system is designed, i.e., its extensibility with pluggable components, and its configurability with a simple configuration file, is innovative. This allows the system to be applied to new scenarios with ease.

Clune, Thomas↗

Characterization of Extreme Hydroclimate Events in Earth System Models using ML/AI

Focal Area(s): (1) We put forward the concepts of data assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization and unsupervised learning applied to downscale information within Earth System Models (ESMs). (2) We discuss predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI-driven model/component/parameterization selection) to improve the characterization of extreme hydroclimate events in ESMs. The AI-based models will run five-six order of magnitude times faster, yet will provide similar accuracy, allowing us to provide range bounds on uncertainty faster and thus enabling faster extreme event identification. (3) Further, we consider the insight gleaned from complex data (observed/simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI to improve the characterization of extreme hydroclimate events in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving the NOvA 3-Flavour Neutrino Oscillation Analysis

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino experiment studying neutrino oscillations, a quantum mechanical interference phenomena where the observed neutrino flavour differs from that measured earlier, stemming from neutrino mass and flavour states mixing. NOvA consists of two functionally identical tracking calorimeter detectors deployed in the Fermilab NuMI beam. Both detectors are placed 14.6 mrad off the beam axis to achieve a narrow energy peak at 1.8 GeV at an oscillation maximum. The NOvA 3-flavour oscillation analysis measures the neutrino oscillation parameters sin2θ23 and ∆m232 as well as sets limit to δCP , the octant of θ23 and the sign of ∆m32. The event selection for 3-flavour neutrino oscillation analysis ensures the maximum quantity of signal is made available and a minimal amount of background is present. The current disappearance analysis selection has an efficiency of 80% for selecting νμ CC events, and with some improvements additional events could be recovered into the analysis to improve the sensitivity to the aforementioned oscillation parameters. In an effort to recover the currently rejected signal event to the analysis, these events were trained in a classification neural network. The aim of the network was to divide the data into signal (νμ CC events) and background (NC and νe CC events). The highest performing network gave an additional figure of merit gain of 2.34 increasing the sensitivity by 4.3% in effective POT equal to 33 days of additional data taking. This was compared to changing the current particle identification event selection cuts, the best result out of the tested cut combinations gave an additional FOM of 3.36 equal to 3.7% increase in effective POT equivalent to 28 days of data taking.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗