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At least 37 records · Page 2

Lowering Barriers to Science and Space Weather Research at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)

The Space Weather and Heliophysics research and modeling community has been pushing the limits of our ability to understand and predict space weather events. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) supports the community by providing a convenient collaborative platform hosting space weather models, model simulation data, curated datasets of solar events, and associated value-added services. Using these services, researchers and other end-users may exercise, evaluate, and intercompare contributed models, triage designated R2O models, as well as collaborate on a continuously updated archive of model run results. We will focus on CCMC’s ongoing commitment to the principles and guidelines of the Open Science initiative. Particularly, we will discuss our work towards making our services more transparent and our library of model simulations more accessible, open, and reproducible. We will introduce our recent tools for data discovery and correlative analysis designed to further increase the value of the user-generated data and metadata. We will also present our recent work on making heliophysical models more accessible and open to the community, particularly through simplified user experience and expert domain support. We will report on our progress in establishing an inter-center infrastructure with the ESA Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre (VSWMC), designed to cross organizational boundaries and provide streamlined access to a joint palette of the models.

space weather↗

Bayesian Statistical Models for Community Annoyance Survey Data

This paper demonstrates the use of two Bayesian statistical models to analyze single-event sonic boom exposure and human annoyance data from community response surveys. Each model is fit to data from a NASA pilot study.Unlike many community noise surveys, this study used a panel sample to collect multiple observations per participant instead of a single observation. Thus, a multilevel (also known as hierarchical or mixed-effects) model is used to account for the within-subject correlation in the panel sample data. This paper describes a multilevel logistic regression model and a multilevel ordinal regression model. The paper also proposes a method for calculating a summary dose-response curve from the multilevel models that represents the population. The two models’ summary dose-response curves are visually similar. However, their estimates differ when calculating the noise dose at a fixed percent highly annoyed.

Musical instruments↗

Making Heliophysics Research More Open and Accessible at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)

The Space Weather and Heliophysics modeling community seeks to improve our understanding of space weather events and their impact on human activities. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center’s (CCMC, https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) mission is to support the community by providing a convenient collaborative platform that brings together space weather models, model simulation data, curated datasets of solar events, and associated value-added services. Using these services, researchers and other end-users may exercise, evaluate, and intercompare contributed models, triage designated R2O models, as well as collaborate on a continuously updated archive of model run results. This presentation reports on CCMC’s ongoing efforts in making Heliophysics models and data more accessible, open, and reproducible. We will also explore interoperability within the ecosystem of CCMC services and how this ecosystem interoperates with external partner services and data streams.

space weather↗

Evaluating Meteorological Dust Events and Machine-Learning Based Dust Identification in Geostationary Satellite Imagery

NASA scientists in the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) developed a physically-based machine learning approach to identify dust in satellite imagery with a focus on night-time dust detection (Berndt et al. 201; DustTracker-AI). NASA/NOAA Geostationary Environmental Operational Satellite-16 (GOES-16) imagery was used for training and model inputs. The training, testing and validation data set consists of 28 events in the Southwest United States, capturing dust and null events in the region from 2018-2020.With 83 distinct images and millions of pixels a random forest model was trained and validated, correctly labeling 85% of dust pixels.For the first time, the model was run in near-real time production during the spring of 2022 and dust probability visualizations were made available to NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters to assess its utility for dust forecasting. Results indicated the model helped increase the confidence in the presence of dust and enabled dust tracking for a longer period of time into the night-time hours. Forecaster assessment and running the model in near real-time allowed for the team to determine the types of events missed, captured, and false alarms. To gain additional context on model performance,the SPoRT team sought to gather more detailed information on the training database(e.g., meteorological characteristics and drivers). The goal of this project was to identify the meteorological drivers for the dust events and create a database which synthesized information from observations, forecaster discussions, and analyses pertaining to the dust events to understand the types of events currently used to train the model. A more detailed meteorological synopsis was created for each dust event in the training, testing, and validation datasets. Following the completion of the database and documentation, the classification details revealed that 88% of the dust events were synoptically driven while mesoscale events were less prevalent in model datasets. Meteorological conditions found such as mixing layer depth and wind velocity had mean values of 645mb and 21kt respectively.With conditions of deep mixed layers and moderate to strong surface winds a mesoscale thunderstorm outflow event was considered and subsequently added to the model training data set to test the impact of additional mesoscale training data. The model was retrained and then qualitatively tested on a sample thunderstorm outflow case that the original model was unable to identify. Preliminary results showed potential that the addition of more mesoscale events included in the training data could help to better identify indistinct and localized dust events.

Connor Welch↗

A Variable-Resolution Stretched-Grid General Circulation Model and Data Assimilation System with Multiple Areas of Interest: Studying the Anomalous Regional Climate Events of 1998

The new stretched-grid design with multiple (four) areas of interest, one at each global quadrant, is implemented into both a stretched-grid GCM (general circulation model) and a stretched-grid data assimilation system (DAS). The four areas of interest include: the U.S./Northern Mexico, the El Nino area/Central South America, India/China, and the Eastern Indian Ocean/Australia. Both the stretched-grid GCM and DAS annual (November 1997 through December 1998) integrations are performed with 50 km regional resolution. The efficient regional down-scaling to mesoscales is obtained for each of the four areas of interest while the consistent interactions between regional and global scales and the high quality of global circulation, are preserved. This is the advantage of the stretched-grid approach. The global variable resolution DAS incorporating the stretched-grid GCM has been developed and tested as an efficient tool for producing regional analyses and diagnostics with enhanced mesoscale resolution. The anomalous regional climate events of 1998 that occurred over the U.S., Mexico, South America, China, India, African Sahel, and Australia are investigated in both simulation and data assimilation modes. Tree assimilated products are also used, along with gauge precipitation data, for validating the simulation results. The obtained results show that the stretched-grid GCM and DAS are capable of producing realistic high quality simulated and assimilated products at mesoscale resolution for regional climate studies and applications.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗

Model-data Comparison of Stratospheric Intrusions Over Hampton, Virginia

Stratospheric intrusions are the transport of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere. These intrusions are frequent in spring; they can affect local air quality as well as satellites observations, notably limb sounding instruments such as SAGE III. Complex models such as GEOS-CF are used to assess the magnitude and the impact of SI. We present the model-data comparison of several stratospheric intrusion above Hampton, Virginia, in 2019, using the NASA Langley Mobile Ozone Lidar and the GEOS-CF model. We show the limits of the model-data agreement for these events and suggest a method to correct limb-sounding observations.

G. Gronoff↗

Composition Changes After the "Halloween" Solar Proton Event: The High-Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere (HEPPA) Model Versus MIPAS Data Intercomparison Study

We have compared composition changes of NO, NO2, H2O2,O3, N2O, HNO3 , N2O5, HNO4, ClO, HOCl, and ClONO2 as observed by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat in the aftermath of the "Halloween" solar proton event (SPE) in October/November 2003 at 25-0.01 hPa in the Northern hemisphere (40-90 N) and simulations performed by the following atmospheric models: the Bremen 2D model (B2dM) and Bremen 3D Chemical Transport Model (B3dCTM), the Central Aerological Observatory (CAO) model, FinROSE, the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), the ECHAM5/MESSY Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, the modeling tool for SO1ar Climate Ozone Links studies (SOCOL and SOCOLi), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). The large number of participating models allowed for an evaluation of the overall ability of atmospheric models to reproduce observed atmospheric perturbations generated by SPEs, particularly with respect to NOS, and ozone changes. We have further assessed the meteorological conditions and their implications on the chemical response to the SPE in both the models and observations by comparing temperature and tracer (CH4 and CO) fields. Simulated SPE-induced ozone losses agree on average within 5% with the observations. Simulated NO(y) enhancements around 1 hPa, however, are typically 30% higher than indicated by the observations which can be partly attributed to an overestimation of simulated electron-induced ionization. The analysis of the observed and modeled NO(y) partitioning in the aftermath of the SPE has demonstrated the need to implement additional ion chemistry (HNO3 formation via ion-ion recombination and water cluster ions) into the chemical schemes. An overestimation of observed H2O2 enhancements by all models hints at an underestimation of the OH/HO2 ratio in the upper polar stratosphere during the SPE. The analysis of chlorine species perturbations has shown that the encountered differences between models and observations, particularly the underestimation of observed ClONO2 enhancements, are related to a smaller availability of ClO in the polar night region already before the SPE. In general, the intercomparison has demonstrated that differences in the meteorology and/or initial state of the atmosphere in the simulations causes a relevant variability of the model results, even on a short timescale of only a few days.

Funke, B.↗

Development of LACIE CCEA-1 weather/wheat yield models

The advantages and disadvantages of the casual (phenological, dynamic, physiological), statistical regression, and analog approaches to modeling for grain yield are examined. Given LACIE's primary goal of estimating wheat production for the large areas of eight major wheat-growing regions, the statistical regression approach of correlating historical yield and climate data offered the Center for Climatic and Environmental Assessment the greatest potential return within the constraints of time and data sources. The basic equation for the first generation wheat-yield model is given. Topics discussed include truncation, trend variable, selection of weather variables, episodic events, strata selection, operational data flow, weighting, and model results.

Strommen, N. D.↗

Assimilation of GPM-retrieved Ocean Surface Meteorology Data for Two Snowstorm Events during ICE-POP 2018

As a component of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Weather Focus Area and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ground Validation participation in the International Collaborative Experiments for PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games (ICE-POP 2018) field research and forecast demonstration programs, hourly ocean surface meteorology properties were retrieved from the GPM microwave observations for January – March 2018. In this study, the retrieved ocean surface meteorological products – 2-m temperature, 2-m specific humidity, and 10-m wind speed were assimilated into a regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) framework to explore the application of these observations for two heavy snowfall events during the ICE-POP 2018: 27-28 February, and 7-8 March 2018. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) were used to conduct high resolution simulations and data assimilation experiments. The results indicate that the data assimilation has a large influence on surface thermodynamic and wind fields in the model initial condition for both events. With cycled data assimilation, significantly positive influence of the retrieved surface observation was found for the March case with improved quantitative precipitation forecast and reduced error in temperature forecast. A slightly smaller yet positive impact was also found in the forecast of the February case.

assimilation↗

A new model for the calculation and prediction of solar proton fluences

A new predictive engineering model for the energy greater than 10 MeV and greater than 30 MeV solar proton environment at earth is reviewed. The data used are from observations made from 1956 through 1985. In this data set, the distinction between 'ordinary events' and 'anomalously large events' that was required in earlier models disappeared. This permitted the use of statistical analysis methods developed for ordinary events on the entire data set. The greater than 10-MeV fluences with the new model are about twice those expected on the basis of earlier models. At energies greater than 30 MeV, the old and new models agree.

Feynman, Joan↗

Modeling Powered Aerodynamics for the Orion Launch Abort Vehicle Aerodynamic Database

Modeling the aerodynamics of the Orion Launch Abort Vehicle (LAV) has presented many technical challenges to the developers of the Orion aerodynamic database. During a launch abort event, the aerodynamic environment around the LAV is very complex as multiple solid rocket plumes interact with each other and the vehicle. It is further complicated by vehicle separation events such as between the LAV and the launch vehicle stack or between the launch abort tower and the crew module. The aerodynamic database for the LAV was developed mainly from wind tunnel tests involving powered jet simulations of the rocket exhaust plumes, supported by computational fluid dynamic simulations. However, limitations in both methods have made it difficult to properly capture the aerodynamics of the LAV in experimental and numerical simulations. These limitations have also influenced decisions regarding the modeling and structure of the aerodynamic database for the LAV and led to compromises and creative solutions. Two database modeling approaches are presented in this paper (incremental aerodynamics and total aerodynamics), with examples showing strengths and weaknesses of each approach. In addition, the unique problems presented to the database developers by the large data space required for modeling a launch abort event illustrate the complexities of working with multi-dimensional data.

Chan, David T.↗

Materials Database Development for Ballistic Impact Modeling

A set of experimental data is being generated under the Fundamental Aeronautics Program Supersonics project to help create and validate accurate computational impact models of jet engine impact events. The data generated will include material property data generated at a range of different strain rates, from 1x10(exp -4)/sec to 5x10(exp 4)/sec, over a range of temperatures. In addition, carefully instrumented ballistic impact tests will be conducted on flat plates and curved structures to provide material and structural response information to help validate the computational models. The material property data and the ballistic impact data will be generated using materials from the same lot, as far as possible. It was found in preliminary testing that the surface finish of test specimens has an effect on measured high strain rate tension response of AL2024. Both the maximum stress and maximum elongation are greater on specimens with a smoother finish. This report gives an overview of the testing that is being conducted and presents results of preliminary testing of the surface finish study.

Pereira, J. Michael↗

ldentifying Episodes of Earth Science Phenomena Using a Big-Data Technology

A significant portion of Earth Science investigations is phenomenon- (or event-) based, such as the studies of Rossby waves, volcano eruptions, tsunamis, mesoscale convective systems, and tropical cyclones. However, except for a few high-impact phenomena, e.g. tropical cyclones, comprehensive records are absent for the occurrences or events of these phenomena. Phenomenon-based studies therefore often focus on a few prominent cases while the lesser ones are overlooked. Without an automated means to gather the events, comprehensive investigation of a phenomenon is at least time-consuming if not impossible. We have constructed a prototype Automated Event Service (AES) system that is used to methodically mine custom-defined events in the reanalysis data sets of atmospheric general circulation models. Our AES will enable researchers to specify their custom, numeric event criteria using a user-friendly web interface to search the reanalysis data sets. Moreover, we have included a social component to enable dynamic formation of collaboration groups for researchers to cooperate on event definitions of common interest and for the analysis of these events. An Earth Science event (ES event) is defined here as an episode of an Earth Science phenomenon (ES phenomenon). A cumulus cloud, a thunderstorm shower, a rogue wave, a tornado, an earthquake, a tsunami, a hurricane, or an El Nino, is each an episode of a named ES phenomenon, and, from the small and insignificant to the large and potent, all are examples of ES events. An ES event has a duration (often finite) and an associated geo-location as a function of time; it's therefore an entity embedded in four-dimensional (4D) spatiotemporal space. Earth Science phenomena with the potential to cause massive economic disruption or loss of life often rivet the attention of researchers. But, broader scientific curiosity also drives the study of phenomena that pose no immediate danger, such as land/sea breezes. Due to Earth System's intricate dynamics, we are continuously discovering novel ES phenomena. We generally gain understanding of a given phenomenon by observing and studying individual events. This process usually begins by identifying the occurrences of these events. Once representative events are identified or found, we must locate associated observed or simulated data prior to commencing analysis and concerted studies of the phenomenon. Knowledge concerning the phenomenon can accumulate only after analysis has started. However, as mentioned previously, comprehensive records only exist for a very limited set of high-impact phenomena; aside from these, finding events and locating associated data currently may take a prohibitive amount of time and effort on the part of an individual investigator. The reason for the lack of comprehensive records for most of the ES phenomena is mainly due to the perception that they do not pose immediate and/or severe threat to life and property. Thus they are not consistently tracked, monitored, and catalogued. Many phenomena even lack precise and/or commonly accepted criteria for definitions. Moreover, various Earth Science observations and data have accumulated to a previously unfathomable volume; NASA Earth Observing System Data Information System (EOSDIS) alone archives several petabytes (PB) of satellite remote sensing data, which are steadily increasing. All of these factors contribute to the difficulty of methodically identifying events corresponding to a given phenomenon and significantly impede systematic investigations. We have not only envisioned AES as an environment for identifying customdefined events but also aspired for it to be an interactive environment with quick turnaround time for revisions of query criteria and results, as well as a collaborative environment where geographically distributed experts may work together on the same phenomena. A Big Data technology is thus required for the realization of such a system. In the following, we first introduce the technology selected for AES in the next section. We then demonstrate the utility of AES using a use case, Blizzard, before we conclude.

Kuo, Kwo-Sen↗

Impulsive acceleration and scatter-free transport of about 1 MeV per nucleon ions in (He-3)-rich solar particle events

Impulsive solar energetic particle (SEP) events are studied to: (1) describe a distinct class of SEP ion events observed in interplanetary space, and (2) test models of focused transport through detailed comparisons of numerical model prediction with the data. An attempt will also be made to describe the transport and scattering properties of the interplanetary medium during the times these events are observed and to derive source injection profiles in these events. ISEE 3 and Helios 1 magnetic field and plasma data are used to locate the approximate coronal connection points of the spacecraft to organize the particle anisotropy data and to constrain some free parameters in the modeling of flare events.

Mason, G. M.↗

Applying Machine Learning to Predict Alaskan Ionospheric Irregularities

In this work several machine-learning (ML) techniques for predicting ionospheric irregularities in the northern auroral zone were tested. The techniques include Ridge Regression, Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM), Classification Neural Network (CNN), Autoencoder Classification Neural Network (ACNN), and LSTM Autoencoder Classification Neural Network (LACNN). These techniques were tested with the rate of total electron content (TEC) index (ROTI) data collected during 2008 and 2009 from a geodetic station in Fairbanks, Alaska (64.98°N, 147.50°W), which is in the auroral zone. Using ROTI data with the ML techniques, experiments were conducted to reach two goals: (1) examine what space weather measurements present good correlation with ROTI so that they may be helpful in ML-based prediction of ionospheric irregularities in the polar region; (2) predict ROTI hours and days ahead by training the neural network models with historical ROTI data alone. The Ridge Regression experiments indicate that a combination of measurements of local geomagnetic horizontal components, geomagnetic SYM-H index, 3-hour Kp and ap indices, and F10.7 solar flux index appears to be more correlated to the single-site ROTI measurements than other parameters. The neural network (NN) experiments show that although the LACNN model allows for predictions of non-irregularity and irregularity conditions defined by ROTI levels up to 3 hours in advance, with an overall accuracy ≥ 92%, a number of irregularity events can still be missed. Hence, further development is needed to reduce the number of missed events. In this paper, the models, data processing, model performance, prediction results, and potential applications are presented.

Pi, Xiaoqing↗

Automated Discovery and Modeling of Sequential Patterns Preceding Events of Interest

The integration of emerging data manipulation technologies has enabled a paradigm shift in practitioners' abilities to understand and anticipate events of interest in complex systems. Example events of interest include outbreaks of socio-political violence in nation-states. Rather than relying on human-centric modeling efforts that are limited by the availability of SMEs, automated data processing technologies has enabled the development of innovative automated complex system modeling and predictive analysis technologies. We introduce one such emerging modeling technology - the sequential pattern methodology. We have applied the sequential pattern methodology to automatically identify patterns of observed behavior that precede outbreaks of socio-political violence such as riots, rebellions and coups in nation-states. The sequential pattern methodology is a groundbreaking approach to automated complex system model discovery because it generates easily interpretable patterns based on direct observations of sampled factor data for a deeper understanding of societal behaviors that is tolerant of observation noise and missing data. The discovered patterns are simple to interpret and mimic human's identifications of observed trends in temporal data. Discovered patterns also provide an automated forecasting ability: we discuss an example of using discovered patterns coupled with a rich data environment to forecast various types of socio-political violence in nation-states.

Rohloff, Kurt↗

Characterization of Ring Wave Spectra for Natural Rain: Measurements and Model for Remote Sensing Applications

Ring waves generated by natural rains from 1 to 100 mm/hr were measured in a small tank located in a field. Time series were obtained: (a) from a wire capacitance probe that measured surface elevation, (b) from an optical gauge that measured rain rates R, (c) from an anemometer that measured wind speeds and (d) from a 13.5 GHz scatterometer (w polarization, and 30 degree incidence angle). Ring wave frequency spectra are computed from the surface elevation data for each minute of rain. All the spectra have a similar shape, with a maximum near 5 Hz, and with a more rapid decay towards higher frequencies than towards lower frequencies. A log-Gaussian spectral model provides a useful representation of these data and analysis of the model coefficients shows that the peak frequency and bandwidth are approximately constant, but the magnitude increases as R increases, Additionally, the normalized radar cross section from the scatterometer varies approximately linearly with the spectral line corresponding to the Bragg-wavelength, so together the log-Gaussian ring wave model and the Bragg scattering theory should be useful for a broad range of applications. These findings can be used to help interpret remote sensing data during rain events and to guide model development for radar scattering from rain roughened seas.

Bliven, L.↗