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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Mesospheric temperature and circulation response to the Hunga Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai volcanic eruption

The Hunga Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption on 15 January 2022 injected water vapor and SO 2 into the stratosphere. Several months after the eruption, significantly stronger westerlies, and a weaker Brewer-Dobson circulation developed in the stratosphere of the Southern Hemisphere and were accompanied by unprecedented temperature anomalies in the stratosphere and mesosphere. In August 2022, the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite instrument observed record-breaking temperature anomalies in the stratosphere and mesosphere that alternate signs with altitude. Ensemble simulations carried out with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6) indicate that the strengthening of the stratospheric westerlies explains the mesospheric temperature changes. The stronger westerlies cause stronger westward gravity wave drag in the mesosphere. Although the enhanced gravity wave drag is partly balanced by a weakening of planetary wave forcing, the net result is an acceleration of the mesospheric mean meridional circulation. The stronger mesospheric circulation, in turn, plays a dominant role in driving the changes in mesospheric temperatures. This study highlights the impact of large volcanic eruptions on middle atmospheric dynamics and provides insight into their long-term effects in the mesosphere. On the other hand, we could not discern a clear mechanism for the observed changes in stratospheric circulation. In fact, an examination of the WACCM ensemble reveals that not every member reproduces the large changes observed by SABER. We conclude that there is a stochastic component to the stratospheric response to the HTHH eruption.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Event Explosive Seismic Source for the 2022 M w 6.3 Hunga Tonga Submarine Volcanic Eruption

The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai submarine volcano on 15 January 2022 produced a variety of geophysical responses, including a significant seismic signal. We study the seismic source process of this event by inverting for moment tensors (MTs) using regional surface waves (Rayleigh, Love). By comparing inversion results for the eruption with eight nearby earthquakes, we show that it is possible to discriminate MT source types. Our inversion yields a shallow explosive source for the eruption and reveals the importance of trade-offs among depth, magnitude, and source type. We illustrate these trade-offs by representing the misfit variations over the eigenvalue lune. Finally, we invert for the source-time function of the sequence of explosions that occurred in the first minutes of the eruption. The multi-event source-time function comprises four subevents spanning ~270 s, with a total magnitude estimate of M w 6.34 ± 0.10.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Flux Eruption Events Drive Angular Momentum Transport in Magnetically Arrested Accretion Flows

We evolve two high-resolution general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations of advection-dominated accretion flows around nonspinning black holes (BHs), each over a duration ~3 × 10 5 GM BH /c 3 . One model captures the evolution of a weakly magnetized (SANE) disk and the other that of a magnetically arrested disk (MAD). Magnetic flux eruptions in the MAD model push out gas from the disk and launch strong winds with outflow efficiencies at times reaching 10% of the incoming accretion power. Despite the substantial power in these winds, average mass outflow rates remain low out to a radius ~100GM BH /c 2 , only reaching ~60%–80% of the horizon accretion rate. The average outward angular momentum transport is primarily radial in both modes of accretion, but with a clear distinction: magnetic flux eruption–driven disk winds cause a strong vertical flow of angular momentum in the MAD model, while for the SANE model, the magnetorotational instability (MRI) moves angular momentum mostly equatorially through the disk. Further, we find that the MAD state is highly transitory and nonaxisymmetric, with the accretion mode often changing to a SANE-like state following an eruption before reattaining magnetic flux saturation with time. The Reynolds stress changes directions during such transitions, with the MAD (SANE) state showing an inward (outward) stress, possibly pointing to intermittent MRI-driven accretion in MADs. Pinning down the nature of flux eruptions using next-generation telescopes will be crucial in understanding the flow of mass, magnetic flux, and angular momentum in sub-Eddington accreting BHs like M87* and Sagittarius A*.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Size-resolved process understanding of stratospheric sulfate aerosol following the Pinatubo eruption

Stratospheric sulfate aerosol produced by volcanic eruptions plays important roles in atmospheric chemistry and the global radiative balance of the atmosphere. The simulation of stratospheric sulfate concentrations and optical properties is highly dependent on the chemistry scheme and microphysical treatment. In this work, we implemented a sophisticated gas-phase chemistry scheme (full chemistry, FC) and a 5-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module with Prognostic Stratospheric Aerosol (MAM5-PSA) for the interactive treatment of stratospheric sulfate aerosol in the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) model to better simulate the chemistry-aerosol feedback following the Pinatubo eruption, and to compare it against a simulation using simplified chemistry (SC) and the default 4-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4). MAM5-PSA experiments were found to better capture the stratospheric sulfate burden from the eruption of the volcano to the end of 1992 as compared to the High-resolution Infrared Sounder (HIRS) observations, and the formation of sulfate in MAM5-PSA with FC (with an additional OH replenishment reaction) was significantly faster than in MAM4 with FC. Analyses of microphysical processes indicate that more sulfate aerosol mass was generated in total in FC experiments than in SC experiments. MAM5-PSA performs better than MAM4 in simulation of aerosol optical depth (AOD); AOD anomalies from the MAM5-PSA experiment have better agreement with observations. The simulated largest changes in global mean net radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere following the eruption were about −3 W m −2 in MAM5-PSA experiments and roughly −1.5 W m −2 in MAM4 experiments.

AEROSOL↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-model analysis of the impact of water vapor on the radiative forcing of volcanic aerosols after the 2022 Hunga Eruption

On 15 January 2022, the Hunga volcano eruption released unprecedented amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere alongside a modest amount of SO 2 . In this work we analyse results from multiple Earth system models as part of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison Project. Our results show a good model agreement over the climatic outcomes of the eruption, overall indicating a significant negative radiative forcing from the Hunga eruption. The multi-model mean of global instantaneous radiative forcing averaged over 2022–2023 is estimated at −0.19 ± 0.06 W m −2 at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA), and −0.16 ± 0.06 W m −2 at the surface. Simulations with free-running meteorology and climatological sea surface temperatures and sea ice yield a global mean TOA forcing of −0.14 ± 0.10 W m −2 across two models for the first 2 years, decreasing to −0.09 ± 0.10 W m −2 on average between 2022 and 2027. However, these global values may be underestimated by about 50 %, considering that recent SO 2 injection retrievals suggest nearly twice the amount than the 0.5 Tg-SO 2 used in the protocol. We also find that the contribution from added stratospheric water vapor is minimal and that the injected SO 2 and the resulting formation of stratospheric sulfate dominate the radiative forcing. However, water vapor played a key role in the initial aerosol growth, leading to a stronger negative radiative forcing during the first 6 months after the eruption compared to simulations without water vapor co-injection.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validating a microphysical prognostic stratospheric aerosol implementation in E3SMv2 using observations after the Mount Pinatubo eruption

Abstract. This paper describes the addition of a stratospheric prognostic aerosol (SPA) capability – developed with the goal of accurately simulating sulfate aerosol formation and evolution in the stratosphere – in the Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model, version 2 (E3SMv2). The implementation includes changes to the four-mode Modal Aerosol Module microphysics in the stratosphere to allow for larger particle growth and more accurate stratospheric aerosol lifetime following the Pinatubo eruption. E3SMv2-SPA reasonably reproduces stratospheric aerosol lifetime, burden, aerosol optical depth, and top-of-atmosphere flux when compared to remote sensing observations. E3SMv2-SPA also has close agreement with the interactive chemistry–climate model CESM2-WACCM (Community Earth System Model version 2–Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) – which has a more complete chemical treatment – and the observationally constrained, prescribed volcanic aerosol treatment in E3SMv2. Global stratospheric aerosol size distributions identify the nucleation and growth of sulfate aerosol from volcanically injected SO2 from both major and minor volcanic eruptions from 1991 to 1993. The modeled aerosol effective radius is consistently lower than satellite and in situ measurements (max differences of ∼ 30 %). Comparisons with in situ size distribution samples indicate that this simulated underestimation in both E3SMv2-SPA and CESM2-WACCM is due to overly small accumulation and coarse-mode aerosols 6–18 months post-eruption, with E3SMv2-SPA simulating ∼ 50 % of the coarse-mode geometric mean diameters of observations 11 months post-eruption. Effective radii from the models and observations are used to calculate offline scattering and absorption efficiencies to explore the implications of smaller simulated aerosol size for the Pinatubo climate impacts. Scattering efficiencies at wavelengths of peak solar irradiance (∼ 0.5 µm) are 10 %–80 % higher for daily samples in models relative to observations through 1993, suggesting higher diffuse radiation at the surface and a larger cooling effect in the models due to the smaller simulated aerosol; absorption efficiencies at the peak wavelengths of outgoing terrestrial radiation (∼ 10 µm) are 15 %–40 % lower for daily samples in models relative to observations, suggesting an underestimation in stratospheric heating in the models due to the smaller simulated aerosol. These potential biases are based on aerosol size alone and do not take into account differences in the aerosol number. The overall agreement of E3SMv2-SPA with observations and its similar performance to the well-validated CESM2-WACCM makes E3SMv2-SPA a viable alternative to simulating climate impacts from stratospheric sulfate aerosols.

Brown, Hunter York (ORCID:0000000218147874)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lightning Rings and Gravity Waves: Insights Into the Giant Eruption Plume From Tonga's Hunga Volcano on 15 January 2022

Abstract On 15 January 2022, Hunga Volcano in Tonga produced the most violent eruption in the modern satellite era, sending a water‐rich plume at least 58 km high. Using a combination of satellite‐ and ground‐based sensors, we investigate the astonishing rate of volcanic lightning (>2,600 flashes min −1 ) and what it reveals about the dynamics of the submarine eruption. In map view, lightning locations form radially expanding rings. We show that the initial lightning ring is co‐located with an internal gravity wave traveling >80 m s −1 in the stratospheric umbrella cloud. Buoyant oscillations of the plume's overshooting top generated the gravity waves, which enhanced turbulent particle interactions and triggered high‐current electrical discharges at unusually high altitudes. Our analysis attributes the intense lightning activity to an exceptional mass eruption rate (>5 × 10 9 kg s −1 ), rapidly expanding umbrella cloud, and entrainment of abundant seawater vaporized from magma‐water interaction at the submarine vent.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Episodic Magma Hammers for the 15 January 2022 Cataclysmic Eruption of Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai

Understanding the forces and magma system dynamics on timescales of seconds to minutes remains challenging. In the January 2022 phreatoplinian Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption, four remarkably similar seismic subevents within a 5-min interval occurred during the intensifying early eruptive phase. The subevents are similar in waveforms and durations (~25 s each). Each subevent begins with an unusual negative P-wave polarity which is inferred, using full-wave seismic modeling, to be caused by an upward single-force mechanism at the volcano created by a magma hammer likely in response to magma flow blockage/constriction during the early part of the eruption as discharge rapidly increased over orders of magnitude with concomitant conduit geometry evolution and instability. Our proposed episodic magma hammer model is consistent with thermodynamic and phase properties of the magmatic mixture, and yields an estimate of conduit mass flow in agreement with vent discharge rates derived from satellite imagery of plume heights.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiple giant eruptions and X-ray emission in the recoiling AGN/LBV candidate SDSS1133

We present a comprehensive analysis of 20 yr worth of multicolour photometric light curves, multiepoch optical spectra, and X-ray data of an off-nuclear variable object SDSS1133 in Mrk 177 at z = 0.0079. The UV-optical light curves reveal that SDSS1133 experienced four outbursts in 2001, 2014, 2019, and 2021. The persistent UV-optical luminosity in the non-outbursting state is ~1041 erg s -1 with small-scale flux variations, and peak luminosities during the outbursts reach ~10 42 erg s -1 . The optical spectra exhibit enduring broad hydrogen Balmer P-Cygni profiles with the absorption minimum at ~-2000 km s -1 , indicating the presence of fast-moving ejecta. Chandra detected weak X-ray emission at a 0.3-10-keV luminosity of L X = 4 × 10 38 erg s -1 after the 2019 outburst. These lines of evidence suggests that SDSS1133 is an extreme luminous blue variable (LBV) star experiencing multiple giant eruptions with interactions of the ejected shell with different shells and/or circumstellar medium (CSM), and disfavours the recoiling active galactic nuclei scenario suggested in the literature. We suggest that pulsational pair-instability may provide a viable explanation for the multiple energetic eruptions in SDSS1133. If the current activity of SDSS1133 is a precursor of a supernova explosion, we may be able to observe a few additional giant eruptions and then the terminal supernova explosion or collapse to a massive black hole in future observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Magmatic water content controls the pre-eruptive depth of arc magmas

We report that vanguard efforts in forecasting volcanic eruptions are turning to physics-based models, which require quantitative estimates of magma conditions during pre-eruptive storage. Below active arc volcanoes, observed magma storage depths vary widely (~0 to 20 kilometers) and are commonly assumed to represent levels of neutral buoyancy. Here we show that geophysically observed magma depths (6 ± 3 kilometers) are greater than depths of neutral buoyancy, ruling out this commonly assumed control. Observed depths are instead consistent with predicted depths of water degassing. Intrinsically wetter magmas degas water and crystallize deeper than dry magmas, resulting in viscosity increases that lead to deeper stalling of ascending magma. The water–depth relationship provides a critical constraint for forecasting models by connecting depth of eruption initiation to its volatile fuel.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric waves and global seismoacoustic observations of the January 2022 Hunga eruption, Tonga

The 15 January 2022 climactic eruption of Hunga volcano, Tonga, produced an explosion in the atmosphere of a size that has not been documented in the modern geophysical record. The event generated a broad range of atmospheric waves observed globally by various ground-based and spaceborne instrumentation networks. Most prominent was the surface-guided Lamb wave (≲0.01 hertz), which we observed propagating for four (plus three antipodal) passages around Earth over 6 days. As measured by the Lamb wave amplitudes, the climactic Hunga explosion was comparable in size to that of the 1883 Krakatau eruption. The Hunga eruption produced remarkable globally detected infrasound (0.01 to 20 hertz), long-range (~10,000 kilometers) audible sound, and ionospheric perturbations. Seismometers worldwide recorded pure seismic and air-to-ground coupled waves. Air-to-sea coupling likely contributed to fast-arriving tsunamis. In this article, we highlight exceptional observations of the atmospheric waves.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Could the chemical industry mitigate rapid global cooling from a catastrophic volcanic eruption?

Abstract Estimates based on historical data place the probability of a catastrophic volcanic eruption in the next 100 years at around one in six. Large volcanic eruptions can lead to significant global cooling for 2–4 years, with potentially devastating impacts on global agriculture. In principle, the negative impacts of volcano‐induced cooling could be reduced by deliberate emission of short‐lived chemicals with high greenhouse gas intensity into the atmosphere. This article examines the physical feasibility of this concept for a wide range of short‐lived climate pollutants, using the global chemical industry for context. Deliberate emission of any known chemical species would require gigatons of material, which would have to be produced and stored far in advance of the volcanic event. The cost of this undertaking would be immense. In addition to these daunting logistical challenges, a range of other uncertainties and complications associated with this concept are discussed.

Sholl, David S. [University of Tennessee‐Oak Ridge↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quasi-periodic X-ray eruptions years after a nearby tidal disruption event

Abstract Quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) are luminous bursts of soft X-rays from the nuclei of galaxies, repeating on timescales of hours to weeks 1–5 . The mechanism behind these rare systems is uncertain, but most theories involve accretion disks around supermassive black holes (SMBHs) undergoing instabilities 6–8 or interacting with a stellar object in a close orbit 9–11 . It has been suggested that this disk could be created when the SMBH disrupts a passing star 8,11 , implying that many QPEs should be preceded by observable tidal disruption events (TDEs). Two known QPE sources show long-term decays in quiescent luminosity consistent with TDEs 4,12 and two observed TDEs have exhibited X-ray flares consistent with individual eruptions 13,14 . TDEs and QPEs also occur preferentially in similar galaxies 15 . However, no confirmed repeating QPEs have been associated with a spectroscopically confirmed TDE or an optical TDE observed at peak brightness. Here we report the detection of nine X-ray QPEs with a mean recurrence time of approximately 48 h from AT2019qiz, a nearby and extensively studied optically selected TDE 16 . We detect and model the X-ray, ultraviolet (UV) and optical emission from the accretion disk and show that an orbiting body colliding with this disk provides a plausible explanation for the QPEs.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Applying Automated Detectors for Regional Infrasound Signals to Global Networks: A Case Study Using the 2022 Hunga Tonga Volcanic Eruption

The January 15, 2022 Tonga Hunga volcanic eruption was the largest event to be recorded across the International Monitoring System infrasound network. Signals from the eruption were identified at all 53 operational stations by International Data Centre analysts. This report contains descriptors for signal detection bulletins produced by infrasound researchers at Sandia National Laboratories and Los Alamos National Laboratory. Manual detection bulletins were produced by laboratory staff. Automated detection bulletins were produced using automated infrasound processing tools developed at both laboratories. Initial results are provided to evaluate the utility of extending tools developed for regional infrasound event analysis to global-scale events.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric and Surface Temperature Responses to the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption within E3SMv2-SPA

The Mt. Pinatubo eruption on 15 June 1991 is often associated with surface warming in the subsequent Northern Hemisphere winter. Employing E3SMv2 with prognostic aerosol modifications, we generated an ensemble of simulations initialized on 1 June 1991 to limit the intra-ensemble variability at the time of the eruption and a more traditional ensemble representing the full range of intra-ensemble variability. For each ensemble member we generated a paired counterfactual simulation with the Pinatub forcing removed allowing for isolation of the Pinatubo impact. In general, the limited variability ensemble has greater coherence in the Pinatubo impact across ensemble members which leads to more statistically robust signals compared to the full variability ensemble. Stratospheric warming patterns from Pinatubo were approximately zonally symmetric and confined between 30°S and 50°N. Isolating localized surface temperature impacts was more difficult, but the limited variability simulation did identify a preferential region of cooling between 20°S to 50°N.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Kink-driven Magnetic Reconnection as the Driver of a Laboratory Plasma Eruption

We report that kink-driven magnetic reconnection serves as an eruption mechanism for a laboratory jet. A flux rope is formed and becomes a filamentary jet. The jet becomes unstable due to kink instability when the Kruskal–Shafranov instability criterion is met, leading to an inflow of reconnecting fields. As a result of kink-driven magnetic reconnection, ions are substantially energized, resulting in enhanced acceleration of the jet. Based on the evidence observed from this laboratory experiment, we propose that kink-driven magnetic reconnection might act as a key driver for laboratory jet eruptions and might be relevant to solar jets associated with kink instability and magnetic reconnection.

Solar magnetic reconnection↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing multi-model ensemble simulations with observations and decadal projections of upper atmospheric variations following the Hunga eruption

The Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai Model–Observation Comparison (HTHH–MOC) project aims to comprehensively investigate the evolution of volcanic water vapor and sulfur emissions and their subsequent atmospheric impacts and underlying response mechanisms using state-of-the-art global climate models. This study evaluates multi-model ensemble simulations participating in the HTHH–MOC free-run experiment with climate projections for 10 years (2022–2032). Model results are evaluated against satellite observations to assess their ability to reproduce the observed evolution of stratospheric water vapor, aerosols, temperature, and ozone from 2022 to 2024. The participating models accurately capture the observed distribution patterns and associated upper atmospheric responses, providing confidence for their future projections. Model simulations suggest that the Hunga eruption-induced stratospheric water vapor anomaly lasts 4–7 years, with a water vapor e-folding time of 31–43 months. This prolonged water vapor perturbation leads to significant stratospheric and mesospheric cooling, resulting in significant ozone loss in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere for 7–10 years. Comparisons between simulations with both SO 2 and H 2 O emissions and those with H 2 O-only emissions indicate that the pronounced dipole response with upper-stratospheric cooling and lower-stratospheric warming is driven by the combined effects of SO 2 and H 2 O injections. These results highlight the prolonged atmospheric impacts of the Hunga eruption and the potential critical role of stratospheric water vapor in modulating long-term atmospheric chemistry and dynamics.

Zhuo, Zhihong [Univ. of Quebec, Montreal, QC (Cana↗
DOE OSTI2023

The 2022 Hunga eruption exercises the nuclear explosion monitoring community

The 2022 Hunga eruption was a global event recorded by all three Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) International Monitoring System (IMS) geophysical waveform sensor technologies: seismic, infrasound, and hydroacoustic. Large volcanic eruptions are rare and additionally present an opportunity to test seismoacoustic detection, location, and identification methods for nuclear explosion monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗