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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Errors in Effective Cluster Interactions of Lattice Gas Cluster Expansions

The promise of lattice gas (LG) cluster expansions (CEs) is that they can describe a given system property to any level of accuracy since the orthogonal “cluster basis functions” span the complete space of available configurations. Such an approach can be constructed to an arbitrarily large surface of a finite number of distinct adsorption sites. Unfortunately, this is only true for the case of an ideal, fixed lattice decorated with components at precise lattice points (the lattice “sites”) with no distortions or relaxations subsequently allowed. Since most systems, and surfaces specifically, do not conform to such an ideal set of constraints, errors in LG CEs must be expected or CE convergence severely hampered. Beyond this, numerical errors in the provided data can complicate the proper construction of a truly predictive and/or physically significant CE. In this work, we show here how reliance on typical statistical tools like confidence intervals cannot be expected to provide an accurate representation of the uncertainty of effective cluster interactions (ECIs) in the CE due to the nature of the target ab initio data and the nature of CEs themselves. We develop a method for estimating these errors that does not rely on statistical assumptions about the model or data. We then use these ECI errors to quantify fundamental consequences on the uncertainty of ECIs in CEs built from O/Fe(100) data whose surface and adsorbates have been allowed to relax in a typical manner and from O/Fe(100) data whose surface and adsorbates are fixed in ideal lattice positions. We also quantify the effect of using a different density functional theory exchange–correlation functional, using these ECI errors to assess the significance in any deviations. In both cases, our method is shown to have remarkable utility in the quantification of errors in the ECIs of CEs. While we stick to the lattice gas convention in this work, the method is equally applicable to the Ising convention or, in principle, any linear model of sufficient complexity.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning materials properties with accurate predictions, uncertainty estimates, domain guidance, and persistent online accessibility

One compelling vision of the future of materials discovery and design involves the use of machine learning (ML) models to predict materials properties and then rapidly find materials tailored for specific applications. However, realizing this vision requires both providing detailed uncertainty quantification (model prediction errors and domain of applicability) and making models readily usable. At present, it is common practice in the community to assess ML model performance only in terms of prediction accuracy (e.g. mean absolute error), while neglecting detailed uncertainty quantification and robust model accessibility and usability. Here, we demonstrate a practical method for realizing both uncertainty and accessibility features with a large set of models. We develop random forest ML models for 33 materials properties spanning an array of data sources (computational and experimental) and property types (electrical, mechanical, thermodynamic, etc). All models have calibrated ensemble error bars to quantify prediction uncertainty and domain of applicability guidance enabled by kernel-density-estimate-based feature distance measures. All data and models are publicly hosted on the Garden-AI infrastructure, which provides an easy-to-use, persistent interface for model dissemination that permits models to be invoked with only a few lines of Python code. We demonstrate the power of this approach by using our models to conduct a fully ML-based materials discovery exercise to search for new stable, highly active perovskite oxide catalyst materials.

domain of applicability↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Data-Driven Sampling via Multi-Criteria Importance Analysis

Although supercomputers are becoming increasingly powerful, their components have thus far not scaled proportionately. Compute power is growing enormously and is enabling finely resolved simulations that produce never-before-seen features. However, I/O capabilities lag by orders of magnitude, which means only a fraction of the simulation data can be stored for post hoc analysis. Prespecified plans for saving features and quantities of interest do not work for features that have not been seen before. Data-driven intelligent sampling schemes are needed to detect and save important parts of the simulation while it is running. Here, we propose a novel sampling scheme that reduces the size of the data by orders-of-magnitude while still preserving important regions. The approach we develop selects points with unusual data values and high gradients. Finally, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms traditional sampling schemes on a number of tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Calibration of reactive burn and Jones-Wilkins-Lee parameters for simulations of a detonation-driven flow experiment with uncertainty quantification

Here, uncertainties in the explosive-specific parameters of the Jones-Wilkins-Lee (JWL) equation of state (EOS) are carefully considered in hydrodynamic simulations of an explosive experiment to minimize the error in the flow prediction. Experimental data of the leading shock position in the transverse direction over time serves as the prediction metric for quantifying simulation prediction error. The uncertainty quantification technique, global sensitivity analysis, is utilized to determine the JWL parameters to which the transverse shock propagation is most sensitive. A polynomial response surface (PRS) is constructed in the space of the most influential JWL parameters, and the point of minimum error between the experimental data and the PRS yields calibrated JWL parameters for the experimental flow. The simulation results following the parameter calibration show good agreement with the experimental data. It was found that two significant parameters, the heat release per unit mass of reactant Q and JWL model exponent R 1 are strongly related, which makes it difficult to identify accurate values.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cell G 7606A Mockup Measurement Analysis Methods and Results

The production of research isotopes at the Radiochemical Engineering Development Center (REDC) invariably leads to the accumulation of radioactive waste. Storage of this waste onsite at ORNL serves as an interim solution prior to shipment to long term storage facilities, however onsite capacity is limited. Proper characterization of the activity of waste products is essential for determining the appropriate waste stream and, ultimately, mitigating the cost of disposal. This is typically done via gamma spectrometry and use of the In-Situ Object Counting System (ISOCS), a software package from Mirion that serves as an accepted community standard. However, variability in the contents, density, and activity distribution in waste containers can introduce large errors in ISOCS quantification. A measurement campaign using a mockup of the proposed setup in Cell G seeks to quantify the magnitude and source of these systematic errors. Analysis of this data will guide the creation of ISOCS geometry templates and measurement methods designed to minimize overall uncertainty in reported activities.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantification of regional net CO 2 flux errors in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 model intercomparison project (MIP) ensemble using airborne measurements

Inverse model intercomparison projects (MIPs) provide a chance to assess the uncertainties in inversion estimates arising from various sources. However, accurately quantifying ensemble CO 2 flux errors remains challenging and often relies on the ensemble spread. This study proposes a method for quantifying the errors in regional net surface–atmosphere CO 2 flux estimates from models taken from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 MIP by using independent airborne CO 2 measurements for the period 2015–2017. We first calculate the root mean square error (RMSE) between the ensemble mean of posterior CO 2 concentrations and airborne observations and then isolate the CO 2 concentration errors caused solely by the ensemble mean of posterior net fluxes by subtracting the observation, representation, and transport errors from seven regions. Our analysis reveals that the flux errors projected onto CO 2 space account for 55 %–85 % of the regional average RMSE over the 3 years, ranging from 0.88 to 1.91 ppm. In five regions, the error estimates based on observations exceed those computed from the ensemble spread of posterior fluxes by a factor of 1.33–1.93, implying an underestimation of the actual flux errors, while their magnitudes are comparable in two regions. The adjoint sensitivity analysis identifies that the underestimation of flux errors is prominent where the magnitudes of fossil fuel emissions exceed those of terrestrial-biosphere fluxes by a factor of 3–31 over the 3 years. This suggests the presence of systematic biases in the inversion estimates associated with errors in the prescribed fossil fuel emissions common to all models. Our study emphasizes the value of airborne measurements for quantifying regional errors in ensemble net CO 2 flux estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benchmarking noise extrapolation with the OpenPulse control framework

Distilling precise estimates from noisy intermediate scale quantum (NISQ) data has recently attracted considerable attention Kandala et al., Nature (London) 567, 491 (2019). In order to augment digital qubit metrics, such as gate fidelity, we discuss analog error mitigability, i.e., the ability to accurately distill precise observable estimates, as a hybrid quantum classical computing benchmarking task. Specifically, using Rabi oscillations as a test program, we characterize single qubit error rates on IBM's Poughkeepsie superconducting quantum hardware, incorporate control-mediated noise dependence into a generalized rescaling protocol, and analyze how noise characteristics influence Richardson extrapolation-based error mitigation. Finally, our results identify regions in the space of Hamiltonian control fields and circuit depth which are most amenable to reliable noise extrapolation, as well as shed light on how low-level hardware characterization can be used as a predictive tool for uncertainty quantification in error-mitigated NISQ computations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Efficient flexible characterization of quantum processors with nested error models

We present a simple and powerful technique for finding a good error model for a quantum processor. The technique iteratively tests a nested sequence of models against data obtained from the processor, and keeps track of the best-fit model and its wildcard error (a metric of the amount of unmodeled error) at each step. Each best-fit model, along with a quantification of its unmodeled error, constitutes a characterization of the processor. We explain how quantum processor models can be compared with experimental data and to each other. We demonstrate the technique by using it to characterize a simulated noisy two-qubit processor.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Intelligent Electrochemical Sensors for Precise Identification of Volatile Organic Compounds Enabled by Neural Network Analysis

The volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in a wide spectrum of categories were identified as biomarkers in aquatic environments, playing an important role in marine and freshwater ecology and global atmospheric chemistry. VOCs released from biofuel have also attracted increasing attention. Although the importance has been recognized, the portable detection and analysis methods of VOC in aquatic systems have not yet been well developed and understood. Here, in this work, we innovatively proposed an intelligent electrochemical sensing approach to classify and quantify VOCs in solution. Utilizing the cyclic voltammetry (CV) method with an ionic liquid (IL)-based electrolyte, we analyzed 50 μL samples of various VOC analytes, including acetic acid (AC), acetone, dimethylformamide (DMF), dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO), ethanol, formaldehyde, formic acid, methanol, methyl formate (MF), toluene, and a formaldehyde-methanol mixture, along with deionized water (DI water). The generated voltammograms were subsequently analyzed using our uniquely designed and optimized 1-D convolutional neural network (1D-CNN). This deep-learning algorithm achieved a 99.09% accuracy in VOC classification validated through fivefold cross-validation and demonstrated an impressive 94.4% test accuracy for methanol detection within a 10 μL error range. For quantification, the system accurately categorized methanol volumes ranging from 0 to 50 μL in 10 μL increments, achieving a 98.18% accuracy. A notable linear correlation (R2 = 95.56%) was found between max current density at the oxidation peak and methanol volume, with the limit of detection (LOD) at 9.3 μL. Such a sensing method exhibits potential for portability, high accuracy, and generalization in the classification and quantification, ultimately reshaping the realm of VOC analysis in solution.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

MAGIC: M arching Cubes Isosurface Uncertainty Visualization for G auss i an Uncertain Data With Spatial C orrelation

Here, in this paper, we study the propagation of data uncertainty through the marching cubes algorithm for isosurface visualization for correlated uncertain data. Consideration of correlation has been shown paramount for avoiding errors in uncertainty quantification and visualization in multiple prior studies. Although the problem of isosurface uncertainty with spatial data correlation has been previously addressed, there are two major limitations to prior treatments. First, there are no analytical formulations for uncertainty quantification of isosurfaces when the data uncertainty is characterized by a Gaussian distribution with spatial correlation. Second, as a consequence of the lack of analytical formulations,existing techniques resort to a Monte Carlo sampling approach, which is expensive and difficult to integrate into visualization tools. To address these limitations, we present a closed-form framework to efficiently derive uncertainty in marching cubes level-sets for Gaussian uncertain data with spatial correlation (MAGIC). To derive closed-form solutions, we leverage the Hinkley's derivation on the ratio of Gaussian distributions. With our analytical framework, we achieve a significant speed-up and enhanced accuracy of uncertainty quantification over classical Monte Carlo methods. We further accelerate our analytical solutions using many-core processors to achieve speed-ups up to 585× and integrability with production visualization tools for broader impact. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our correlation-aware uncertainty framework through experiments on meteorology, urban flow, and astrophysics simulation datasets.

Gaussian↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Pressure-Dependent Interfacial Tension and Contact Angle on Capillary Heterogeneity Trapping of CO2 in Storage Aquifers

Summary Carbon dioxide (CO2) capillary trapping increases the total amount of CO2 that can be effectively immobilized in storage aquifers. This trapping, manifesting itself as accumulated CO2 columns at a continuum scale, is because of capillary threshold effects that occur below low-permeability barriers. Considering that capillary pressure is dictated by heterogeneous pore throat size, the trapped CO2 column height and associated CO2 saturation will vary spatially within a storage aquifer. This variation will be influenced by two pressure-dependent interfacial parameters—CO2/brine interfacial tension (IFT) and CO2/brine/rock contact angle. Our objective is to understand how the pressure dependence of these two parameters affects the heterogeneity of capillary trapped CO2 at a continuum scale. Our conceptual model is a 1D two-zone system with the upper zone being a flow barrier (low permeability) and the lower zone being a flow path (high permeability). The inputs to this model include microfacies-dependent capillary pressure vs. saturation curves and permeability values. The input capillary pressure curves were collected in the literature that represents carbonate microfacies (e.g., dolograinstone) in a prevalent formation in the Permian Basin. We then used the Leverett j-function to scale the capillary pressure curve for the two zones that are assigned with the same or different microfacies. During scaling, we considered the influence of pressure on both the IFT and contact angle of CO2/brine/dolomite systems. We varied the zone permeability contrast ratio from 2 to 50. We then assumed capillary gravity equilibriums and calculated the CO2 saturation buildup corresponding to various trapped CO2 column heights. The CO2 saturation buildup is defined as the CO2 saturation in the lower layer minus that in the upper one. We found that the saturation buildup can be doubled when varying pressure in a storage aquifer, after considering pressure-dependent IFT and contact angles. Thus, assuming these two parameters to be constant across such aquifers would cause large errors in the quantification of capillary trapping of CO2. The whole study demonstrates the importance of considering pressure-dependent interfacial properties in predicting the vertical distribution of capillary trapped CO2. It has important implications in developing a better understanding of leakage risks and consequent storage safety.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Reduction of Random Uncertainty in Differential Temperature Measurements Using Common Leg Thermocouples

The uncertainty quantification of random error is considered for common leg thermocouples (i.e., where one thermoelement is shared along the length of the TC for all other TC junctions present). The uncertainty is presented for both a common leg and individual, separate leg thermocouples. For Type K thermocouples a reduction in uncertainty by up to 3x is capable when differential temperatures, ?T, are within 150°C, and diminishes to little to no improvement above 150°C.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Carbonyl Identification and Quantification Uncertainties for Oxidative Polymer Degradation

The most revealing indicator for oxidative processes or state of degraded plastics is usually carbonyl formation, a key step in materials degradation as part of the carbon cycle for man-made materials. Hence, the identification and quantification of carbonyl species with infrared spectroscopy have been the method of choice for generations, thanks to their strong absorbance and being an essential intermediate in carbon oxidation pathways. Despite their importance, precise identification and quantification can be challenging and rigorous fully traceable data are surprisingly rare in the existing literature. An overview of the complexity of carbonyl quantification is presented by the screening of reference compounds in solution with transmission and polymer films with ATR IR spectroscopy, and systematic data analyses. Significant variances in existing data and their past use have been recognized. Guidance is offered how better measurements and data reporting could be accomplished. Experimental variances depend on the combination of uncertainty in exact carbonyl species, extinction coefficient, contributions from neighboring convoluting peaks, matrix interaction phenomena and instrumental variations in primary IR spectral acquisition (refractive index and penetration depth for ATR measurements). In addition, diverging sources for relevant extinction coefficients may exist, based on original spectral acquisition. For common polymer degradation challenges, a relative comparison of carbonyl yields for a material is easily accessible, but quantification for other purposes, such as degradation rates and spatially dependent interpretation, requires thorough experimental validation. All variables featured in this overview demonstrate the significant error margins in carbonyl quantification, with exact carbonyl species and extinction coefficients already being major contributors on their own.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantification of Intrafraction and Interfraction Tumor Motion Amplitude and Prediction Error for Different Liver Tumor Trajectories in Cyberknife Synchrony Tracking

To research the fiducial-based, real-time tracking intrafraction (during the fraction [intra-]) and interfraction (between fractions [inter-]) tumor respiration amplitude, motion trajectory, and prediction error and quantify their relationships for different types of motion trajectories during Cyberknife-based stereotactic ablation radiotherapy.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic multiscale modeling for quantifying statistical and model errors with application to composite materials

This paper provides a coherent and efficient computational framework for stochastic multiscale analysis of material systems in the presence of parametric uncertainties and modeling errors. Uncertainty in those model parameters that are not deduced as upscaled quantities is attributed to an uncertainty “germ”. While such parameters can appear at any scale, they are predominant at the finest analysis scale. Additional uncertainties stemming from statistical estimation, attributed to lack of data and model error, are associated with each submodel contributing to the multiscale system. Here, a robust and efficient framework based on a generalized extended polynomial chaos expansion (gEPCE) is proposed to simultaneously propagate all these uncertainties in order to provide a probabilistic representation of specific quantities of interest (QoI). We characterize the full probability distribution of the QoI and the uncertainty in the failure probability pertaining to its tails. By combining gEPCE with kernel density estimation (KDE) and directional derivatives, we construct sensitivity measures that connect these statistical metrics of QoI to the various sources of uncertainty to assess their individual and combined impacts. An illustrative problem featuring three-point bending of a composite beam is investigated to demonstrate the presented approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Implementation of stacked ensemble machine learning for the detection of surrogate plutonium contamination in soil via LIBS

Supervised machine learning methods have demonstrated increased utility for the quantification of lanthanide and actinide elements in atomic spectroscopy applications. This study implements laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for the identification of plutonium surrogate material (CeO 2 ) in soil matrices by training supervised machine learning methods on the recorded spectral data. A bagged ensemble using Random Forest yields the highest sensitivity predictions with a detection limit of 0.015 wt.% CeO 2 . However, high precision in Ce content prediction required the use of a stacked ensemble regression, which provided the superlative Ce quantification model with an error of 0.107% and a detection limit of 0.022 wt.%. Furthermore, the high performance of the stacked ensemble demonstrates its potential to enhance the accuracy and sensitivity of nuclear contaminant detection using field-deployable spectroscopic analyzers in real-world scenarios.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extraction of the neutron F 2 structure function from inclusive proton and deuteron deep-inelastic scattering data

The available world deep-inelastic scattering (DIS) data on proton and deuteron structure functions F 2 p , F 2 d , and their ratios are leveraged to extract the free neutron F 2 n structure function, the F 2 n / F 2 p ratio, and associated uncertainties using the latest nuclear effect calculations in the deuteron. Special attention is devoted to the normalization of the proton and deuteron experimental datasets and to the treatment of correlated systematic errors, as well as the quantification of procedural and theoretical uncertainties. The extracted F 2 n dataset is utilized to evaluate the Q 2 dependence of the Gottfried sum rule and the nonsinglet F 2 p − F 2 n moments. To facilitate replication of our study, as well as for general applications, we provide a comprehensive DIS database including all recent Jefferson Lab 6 GeV measurements, the extracted F n 2 , a modified CTEQ-JLab global parton distribution function fit named CJ15nlo_mod, and grids with calculated proton, neutron, and deuteron DIS structure functions. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗