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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Safety within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and/or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error. This research provides a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

mishaps↗
NASA NTRS2003

Instrument Reflections and Scene Amplitude Modulation in a Polychromatic Microwave Quadrature Interferometer

A polychromatic microwave quadrature interferometer has been characterized using several laboratory plasmas. Reflections between the transmitter and the receiver have been observed, and the effects of including reflection terms in the data reduction equation have been examined. An error analysis which includes the reflections, modulation of the scene beam amplitude by the plasma, and simultaneous measurements at two frequencies has been applied to the empirical database, and the results are summarized. For reflection amplitudes around 1096, the reflection terms were found to reduce the calculated error bars for electron density measurements by about a factor of 2. The impact of amplitude modulation is also quantified. In the complete analysis, the mean error bar for high- density measurements is 7.596, and the mean phase shift error for low-density measurements is 1.2". .

Dobson, Chris C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Anisotropic Goal-Based Mesh Adaptation Metric Clarification and Development

Adaptive unstructured mesh techniques have a limited, but growing impact on production analysis workflows to control discretization error for reliable simulation results. Multiple independent implementations of flow solvers, anisotropic metric construction methods, and anisotropic mesh adaptation mechanics have matured. Goal-based metrics target estimated error in output functions, such as lift and drag, through the guidance of an adjoint solution. A unification of goal-based anisotropic metrics is presented for steady viscous flows, which is an active area of research. These goal-based metrics drive robust and efficient anisotropic mesh adaptation for the calculation of output functions. The super-convergent functional output error behavior of stabilized finite-element methods is exploited without a formal proof, and evidence of super-convergence is shown in numerical experiments. Mesh adapted drag and lift outputs for two simple bodies in compressible viscous flow show convergence of error to less than a single drag count. Asymptotic behavior established for relatively coarse meshes shows the efficiency of this goal-based metric when compared to solution interpolation error control and expert-guided meshing. Anisotropic mesh adaptation techniques are applied to a transport aircraft in a high-lift configuration where variation between approaches decreases with mesh refinement, but asymptotic behavior is not observed with available resources.

goal-based↗
NASA NTRS1986

Parameter estimation and error analysis in environmental modeling and computation

A method for the estimation of parameters and error analysis in the development of nonlinear modeling for environmental impact assessment studies is presented. The modular computer program can interactively fit different nonlinear models to the same set of data, dynamically changing the error structure associated with observed values. Parameter estimation techniques and sequential estimation algorithms employed in parameter identification and model selection are first discussed. Then, least-square parameter estimation procedures are formulated, utilizing differential or integrated equations, and are used to define a model for association of error with experimentally observed data.

Kalmaz, E. E.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Shuttle entry trajectory reconstruction using inflight accelerometer and gyro measurements

An error analysis has been made of a Shuttle postflight entry trajectory reconstruction process to obtain trajectory state estimation errors and to assess the impact of these errors on Shuttle aerodynamic force coefficient extraction. In this analysis, the entry trajectory is assumed to be reconstructed via numerical integration of onboard accelerometer and gyro measurements and constrained to satisfy ground-based radio tracking. The trajectory state estimation errors are calculated using a Kalman-Schmidt sequential filter assuming various measurement error models and combinations of ground-based tracking. The resultant trajectory estimation errors are analyzed in a simplified perturbation process to establish the accuracy to which postflight aerodynamic force coefficients can be determined. Results are presented which show that the principal error sources affecting the trajectory reconstruction and thus the force coefficient extraction, assuming perfect atmospheric density knowledge, are the accelerometer and gyro resolution, acceleration-sensitive gyro drifts, and the alignment uncertainties associated with integration on the Shuttle.

Compton, H. R.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Towards the 1 mm/y Stability of the Radial Orbit Error at Regional Scales

An estimated orbit error budget for the Jason-1 and Jason-2 GDR-D solutions is constructed, using several measures of orbit error. The focus is on the long-term stability of the orbit time series for mean sea level applications on a regional scale. We discuss various issues related to the assessment of radial orbit error trends; in particular this study reviews orbit errors dependent on the tracking technique, with an aim to monitoring the long-term stability of all available tracking systems operating on Jason-1 and Jason-2 (GPS, DORIS, SLR). The reference frame accuracy and its effect on Jason orbit is assessed. We also examine the impact of analysis method on the inference of Geographically Correlated Errors as well as the significance of estimated radial orbit error trends versus the time span of the analysis. Thus a long-term error budget of the 10-year Jason-1 and Envisat GDR-D orbit time series is provided for two time scales: interannual and decadal. As the temporal variations of the geopotential remain one of the primary limitations in the Precision Orbit Determination modeling, the overall accuracy of the Jason-1 and Jason-2 GDR-D solutions is evaluated through comparison with external orbits based on different time-variable gravity models. This contribution is limited to an East-West "order-1" pattern at the 2 mm/y level (secular) and 4 mm level (seasonal), over the Jason-2 lifetime. The possibility of achieving sub-mm/y radial orbit stability over interannual and decadal periods at regional scales and the challenge of evaluating such an improvement using in situ independent data is discussed.

Precision Orbit Determination (POD)↗
NASA NTRS2019

Verification of Unstructured Grid Adaptation Components

Adaptive unstructured grid techniques have made limited impact on production analysis workflows where the control of discretization error is critical to obtaining reliable simulation results. Recent progress has matured a number of independent implementations of flow solvers, error estimation methods, and anisotropic grid adaptation mechanics. Known differences and previously unknown differences in grid adaptation components and their integrated processes are identified here for study. Unstructured grid adaptation tools are verified using analytic functions and the Code Comparison Principle. Three analytic functions with different smoothness properties are adapted to show the impact of smoothness on implementation differences. A scalar advection-diffusion problem with an analytic solution that models a boundary layer is adapted to test individual grid adaptation components. Laminar flow over a delta wing and turbulent flow over an ONERA M6 wing are verified with multiple, independent grid adaptation procedures to show consistent convergence to fine-grid forces and a moment. The scalar problems illustrate known differences in a grid adaptation component implementation and a previously unknown interaction between components. The wing adaptation cases in the current study document a clear improvement to existing grid adaptation procedures. The stage is set for the infusion of verified grid adaptation into production fluid flow simulations.

Park, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Verification of Unstructured Grid Adaptation Components

Adaptive unstructured grid techniques have made limited impact on production analysis workflows where the control of discretization error is critical to obtaining reliable simulation results. Recent progress has matured a number of independent implementations of flow solvers, error estimation methods, and anisotropic grid adaptation mechanics. Known differences and previously unknown differences in grid adaptation components and their integrated processes are identified here for study. Unstructured grid adaptation tools are verified using analytic functions and the Code Comparison Principle. Three analytic functions with different smoothness properties are adapted to show the impact of smoothness on implementation differences. A scalar advection-diffusion problem with an analytic solution that models a boundary layer is adapted to test individual grid adaptation components. The scalar problems illustrate known differences in a grid adaptation component implementation and a previously unknown interaction between components. Laminar flow over a delta wing is verified with multiple, independent grid adaptation procedures to show consistent convergence to fine-grid forces and pitching moment.

Park, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Mechanical properties of silicate glasses exposed to a low-Earth orbit

The effects of a 5.8 year exposure to low earth orbit environment upon the mechanical properties of commercial optical fused silica, low iron soda-lime-silica, Pyrex 7740, Vycor 7913, BK-7, and the glass ceramic Zerodur were examined. Mechanical testing employed the ASTM-F-394 piston on 3-ball method in a liquid nitrogen environment. Samples were exposed on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) in two locations. Impacts were observed on all specimens except Vycor. Weibull analysis as well as a standard statistical evaluation were conducted. The Weibull analysis revealed no differences between control samples and the two exposed samples. We thus concluded that radiation components of the Earth orbital environment did not degrade the mechanical strength of the samples examined within the limits of experimental error. The upper bound of strength degradation for meteorite impacted samples based upon statistical analysis and observation was 50 percent.

Wiedlocher, David E.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Orbit determination error analysis and comparison of station-keeping costs for Lissajous and halo-type libration point orbits and sensitivity analysis using experimental design techniques

Spacecraft in orbit near libration point L1 in the Sun-Earth system are excellent platforms for research concerning solar effects on the terrestrial environment. One spacecraft mission launched in 1978 used an L1 orbit for nearly 4 years, and future L1 orbital missions are also being planned. Orbit determination and station-keeping are, however, required for these orbits. In particular, orbit determination error analysis may be used to compute the state uncertainty after a predetermined tracking period; the predicted state uncertainty levels then will impact the control costs computed in station-keeping simulations. Error sources, such as solar radiation pressure and planetary mass uncertainties, are also incorporated. For future missions, there may be some flexibility in the type and size of the spacecraft's nominal trajectory, but different orbits may produce varying error analysis and station-keeping results. The nominal path, for instance, can be (nearly) periodic or distinctly quasi-periodic. A periodic 'halo' orbit may be constructed to be significantly larger than a quasi-periodic 'Lissajous' path; both may meet mission requirements, but perhaps the required control costs for these orbits are probably different. Also for this spacecraft tracking and control simulation problem, experimental design methods can be used to determine the most significant uncertainties. That is, these methods can determine the error sources in the tracking and control problem that most impact the control cost (output); it also produces an equation that gives the approximate functional relationship between the error inputs and the output.

Gordon, Steven C.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Disruption of giant comets in the solar system and around other stars

In a standard cometary mass distribution (dN/dM) alpha M(-a), a = 1.5 to 2.0) most of the mass resides in the largest comets. The maximum mass M sub max for which this distribution holds uncertain but there are theoretical and observational indications that M sub max is at least approx. 10(23)g. Chiron, although formally classified as an asteroid, is most likely a giant comet in this mass range. Its present orbit is unstable and it is expected to evolve into a more typical short period comet orbit on a timescale of approx. 10(6) to 10(7)yr. The breakup of a chiron-like comet of mass approx. 10(23)g could in principle produce approx. 10(5) Halley-size comets, or a distribution with an even larger number. If a giant comet was in a typical short period comet orbit, such a breakup could result in a relatively brief comet shower (duration approx. less than 10(6)yr) with some associated terrestrial impacts. However, the most significant climatic effects may not in general be due to the impacts themselves but to the greatly enhanced zodiacal dust cloud in the inner Solar System. (Although this is probably not the case for the unique K-T impact). Researchers used a least Chi square program with error analysis to confirm that the 2 to 5 micrometer excess spectrum of Giclas 29 to 38 can be adequately fitted with either a disk of small inefficient (or efficient) grains or a single temperature black body. Further monitoring of this star may allow discrimination between these two models.

Whitmire, D. P.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Verification of Viscous Goal-Based Anisotropic Mesh Adaptation

Adaptive unstructured mesh techniques have a limited, but growing impact on production analysis workflows where the control of discretization error is critical to obtaining reliable simulation results. Recent progress has matured a number of independent implementations of flow solvers, error estimation methods, and anisotropic mesh adaptation mechanics. Anisotropic metric construction methods are evaluated with analytically defined primal and adjoint fields. This allows the comparison of different metric formulations and different implementations of the same formulation without the complications of a flow and adjoint solution method. Unstructured mesh adaptation tools are verified by comparison on analytic primal and dual field before verification on benchmark aerodynamics cases. The documentation of these verification exercises helps to prepare these goal-based methods for routine use in production simulation workflows.

Mesh adaptation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Verification of Viscous Goal-Based Anisotropic Mesh Adaptation

Adaptive unstructured mesh techniques have a limited, but growing impact on production analysis workflows where the control of discretization error is critical to obtaining reliable simulation results. Recent progress has matured a number of independent implementations of flow solvers, anisotropic metric construction methods, and anisotropic mesh adaptation mechanics. A key ingredient for the broader acceptance of unstructured mesh adaptation is the verification of these implementations. Anisotropic metric construction methods are evaluated with analytically defined primal fields and the corresponding entropy variables as adjoint fields. This allows the comparison of different metric formulations and different implementations of the same formulation without the complications of a flow and adjoint solution method. The convergence of the output associated with the entropy variable adjoint is studied for mesh adaptation to these fields and a manufactured solution. Mesh adapted drag output is studied for two simple wings in compressible laminar flow to show fine-mesh convergence of multiple metric construction methods to less than a single drag count. The documentation of these verification exercises helps to prepare these goal-based methods for routine use in more complex simulations for production workflows.

mesh adaptation↗
NASA NTRS2024

Adiabatic Gravitational Waveform Model for Compact Objects Undergoing Quasi-Circular Inspirals Into Rotating Massive Black Holes

We present bhpwave: a new python-based, open-source tool for generating the gravitational waveforms of stellar-mass compact objects undergoing quasicircular inspirals into rotating massive black holes. These binaries, known as extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs), are exciting mHz gravitational wave sources for future space-based detectors such as the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Relativistic models of EMRI gravitational wave signals are necessary to unlock the full scientific potential of mHz detectors, yet few open-source EMRI waveform models exist. Thus we built bhpwave, which uses the adiabatic approximation from black hole perturbation theory to rapidly construct gravitational waveforms based on the leading-order inspiral dynamics of the binary. In this work, we present the theoretical and numerical foundations underpinning bhpwave. We also demonstrate how bhpwave can be used to assess the impact of EMRI modeling errors on LISA gravitational wave data analysis. In particular, we find that for retrograde orbits and slowly spinning black holes we can mismodel the gravitational wave phasing by as much as ∼10 radians without significantly biasing EMRI parameter estimation.

Zachary Nasipak↗
NASA NTRS2014

Estimating Uncertainty in Long Term Total Ozone Records from Multiple Sources

Total ozone measurements derived from the TOMS and SBUV backscattered solar UV instrument series cover the period from late 1978 to the present. As the SBUV series of instruments comes to an end, we look to the 10 years of data from the AURA Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and two years of data from the Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite (OMPS) on board the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite to continue the record. When combining these records to construct a single long-term data set for analysis we must estimate the uncertainty in the record resulting from potential biases and drifts in the individual measurement records. In this study we present a Monte Carlo analysis used to estimate uncertainties in the Merged Ozone Dataset (MOD), constructed from the Version 8.6 SBUV2 series of instruments. We extend this analysis to incorporate OMI and OMPS total ozone data into the record and investigate the impact of multiple overlapping measurements on the estimated error. We also present an updated column ozone trend analysis and compare the size of statistical error (error from variability not explained by our linear regression model) to that from instrument uncertainty.

TOMS and SBUV↗
NASA NTRS2003

Orbit Determination Support for the Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP)

NASA's Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP) was launched from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Complex 17 aboard a Delta II 7425-10 expendable launch vehicle on June 30, 2001. The spacecraft received a nominal direct insertion by the Delta expendable launch vehicle into a 185-km circular orbit with a 28.7deg inclination. MAP was then maneuvered into a sequence of phasing loops designed to set up a lunar swingby (gravity-assisted acceleration) of the spacecraft onto a transfer trajectory to a lissajous orbit about the Earth-Sun L2 Lagrange point, about 1.5 million km from Earth. Because of its complex orbital characteristics, the mission provided a unique challenge for orbit determination (OD) support in many orbital regimes. This paper summarizes the premission trajectory covariance error analysis, as well as actual OD results. The use and impact of the various tracking stations, systems, and measurements will be also discussed. Important lessons learned from the MAP OD support team will be presented. There will be a discussion of the challenges presented to OD support including the effects of delta-Vs at apogee as well as perigee, and the impact of the spacecraft attitude mode on the OD accuracy and covariance analysis.

Bauer, Frank↗
NASA NTRS2003

Estimation of Model Error Variances During Data Assimilation

Data assimilation is all about understanding the error characteristics of the data and models that are used in the assimilation process. Reliable error estimates are needed to implement observational quality control, bias correction of observations and model fields, and intelligent data selection. Meaningful covariance specifications are obviously required for the analysis as well, since the impact of any single observation strongly depends on the assumed structure of the background errors. Operational atmospheric data assimilation systems still rely primarily on climatological background error covariances. To obtain error estimates that reflect both the character of the flow and the current state of the observing system, it is necessary to solve three problems: (1) how to account for the short-term evolution of errors in the initial conditions; (2) how to estimate the additional component of error caused by model defects; and (3) how to compute the error reduction in the analysis due to observational information. Various approaches are now available that provide approximate solutions to the first and third of these problems. However, the useful accuracy of these solutions very much depends on the size and character of the model errors and the ability to account for them. Model errors represent the real-world forcing of the error evolution in a data assimilation system. Clearly, meaningful model error estimates and/or statistics must be based on information external to the model itself. The most obvious information source is observational, and since the volume of available geophysical data is growing rapidly, there is some hope that a purely statistical approach to model error estimation can be viable. This requires that the observation errors themselves are well understood and quantifiable. We will discuss some of these challenges and present a new sequential scheme for estimating model error variances from observations in the context of an atmospheric data assimilation system.

Dee, Dick↗
NASA NTRS2018

Adjoint Estimation of Observation Impact Explored with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

In an Observing System Simulation Experiment, the full, true state of the simulated atmosphere is known. This knowledge allows the direct calculation of analysis and forecast errors, and also may be used in conjunction with an adjoint tool to calculate metrics that are unachievable in the real world. For example, the errors that result from the use of the analysis state as verification when running adjoint calculations of observation impact on a forecast can be quantified. The adjoint itself can also be used to operate on the analysis state rather than on the forecast state. Results from these and other adjoint experiments using the NASA/GMAO OSSE framework will be presented.

Prive, Nikki↗