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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Ensemble Federated Machine Learning‐Based Cybersecurity Situational Awareness in Microgrid Network

Cyber-physical microgrids are vulnerable to stealthy cybersecurity threats that disguise their actions through the exploitation of system knowledge. Such actions can severely impacts microgrids deployed in defense bases, slowing the response time of military forces during national emergencies. Several machine-learning algorithms have been proposed to detect intrusions in the grid networks; however, these traditional machine-learning algorithms lack data privacy and are subject to several adversarial machine-learning threats. This paper proposes a novel federated machine learning (FML)-based three-model framework to detect and identify stealthy data-integrity attacks while ensuring data privacy in microgrid networks. The proposed architecture uses a variational mode decomposition technique to extract derived features from incoming measurement and control datasets. The extraction of these derived features allows FML models to learn minute variations in data patterns that allow them to perform significantly better than the models trained with generic datasets consisting of raw features. Our experimental results show the efficient performance of the proposed methodology against different types of data integrity attacks while considering primary and secondary controllers in microgrids. Further, the applied FML-integrated random forest ensemble algorithm outperforms the existing generic FML algorithms during noisy and noise-free datasets with prediction latencies of only 91–134 µs per sample within the 0.1 s sampling interval and requires communication bandwidth of around ∼8.25 KB/s at the control center and ∼2.7 KB/s per edge client for communication.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Inverse design of photonic surfaces via multi fidelity ensemble framework and femtosecond laser processing

We demonstrate a multi-fidelity (MF) machine learning ensemble framework for the inverse design of photonic surfaces, trained on a dataset of 11,759 samples that we fabricate using high throughput femtosecond laser processing. The MF ensemble combines an initial low fidelity model for generating design solutions, with a high fidelity model that refines these solutions through local optimization. The combined MF ensemble can generate multiple disparate sets of laser-processing parameters that can each produce the same target input spectral emissivity with high accuracy (root mean squared errors < 2%). SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis shows transparent model interpretability of the complex relationship between laser parameters and spectral emissivity. Finally, the MF ensemble is experimentally validated by fabricating and evaluating photonic surface designs that it generates for improved efficiency energy harvesting devices. Our approach provides a powerful tool for advancing the inverse design of photonic surfaces in energy harvesting applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning of Key Variables Impacting Extreme Precipitation in Various Regions of the Contiguous United States

Abstract Amplification in extreme precipitation intensity and frequency can cause severe flooding and impose significant social and economic consequences. Variations in extreme precipitation intensity, frequencies, and return periods can be attributed to many physical variables across spatial and temporal scales. Here we employ ensemble machine learning (ML) methods, namely random forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and artificial neural networks (ANN), to explore key contributing variables to monthly extreme precipitation intensity and frequency in six regions over the United States. We further establish emulators for return periods. Results show that the ML models for intensity perform better in regions with obvious seasonality (i.e., Northern Great Plains, Southern Great Plains, and West Coast) than the other three regions (Northeast, Southwest, and Rocky Mountains), while for frequency the models perform well for most regions. The Shapley additive explanation is used to help explain the relationships between extreme precipitation characteristics and identify top variables for RF and XGB. We find that latent heat flux, relative humidity, soil moisture, and large‐scale subsidence are key common variables across the regions for both monthly intensity and frequency, and their compound effects are non‐negligible. The developed ML models capture the probability and return period of extreme precipitation well for all regions and may be used for decision making (e.g., infrastructure planning and design).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Earth's record-high greenness and its attributions in 2020

Terrestrial vegetation is a crucial component of Earth's biosphere, regulating global carbon and water cycles and contributing to human welfare. Despite an overall greening trend, terrestrial vegetation exhibits a significant inter-annual variability. The mechanisms driving this variability, particularly those related to climatic and anthropogenic factors, remain poorly understood, which hampers our ability to project the long-term sustainability of ecosystem services. Here, in this work, by leveraging diverse remote sensing measurements, we pinpointed 2020 as a historic landmark, registering as the greenest year in modern satellite records from 2001 to 2020. Using ensemble machine learning and Earth system models, we found this exceptional greening primarily stemmed from consistent growth in boreal and temperate vegetation, attributed to rising CO 2 levels, climate warming, and reforestation efforts, alongside a transient tropical green-up linked to the enhanced rainfall. Contrary to expectations, the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns had a limited impact on this global greening anomaly. Our findings highlight the resilience and dynamic nature of global vegetation in response to diverse climatic and anthropogenic influences, offering valuable insights for optimizing ecosystem management and informing climate mitigation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Linking repeat lidar with Landsat products for large scale quantification of fire-induced permafrost thaw settlement in interior Alaska

The permafrost–fire–climate system has been a hotspot in research for decades under a warming climate scenario. Surface vegetation plays a dominant role in protecting permafrost from summer warmth, thus, any alteration of vegetation structure, particularly following severe wildfires, can cause dramatic top–down thaw. A challenge in understanding this is to quantify fire-induced thaw settlement at large scales (>1000 km 2 ). In this study, we explored the potential of using Landsat products for a large-scale estimation of fire-induced thaw settlement across a well-studied area representative of ice-rich lowland permafrost in interior Alaska. Six large fires have affected ~1250 km 2 of the area since 2000. We first identified the linkage of fires, burn severity, and land cover response, and then developed an object-based machine learning ensemble approach to estimate fire-induced thaw settlement by relating airborne repeat lidar data to Landsat products. The model delineated thaw settlement patterns across the six fire scars and explained ~65% of the variance in lidar-detected elevation change. Our results indicate a combined application of airborne repeat lidar and Landsat products is a valuable tool for large scale quantification of fire-induced thaw settlement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Solar Energy Product Based on Cloud Coverage Estimation Using Machine Learning Methods

Cloud cover estimation from images taken by sky-facing cameras can be an important input for analyzing current weather conditions and estimating photovoltaic power generation. The constant change in position, shape, and density of clouds, however, makes the development of a robust computational method for cloud cover estimation challenging. Accurately determining the edge of clouds and hence the separation between clouds and clear sky is difficult and often impossible. Toward determining cloud cover for estimating photovoltaic output, we propose using machine learning methods for cloud segmentation. We compare several methods including a classical regression model, deep learning methods, and boosting methods that combine results from the other machine learning models. To train each of the machine learning models with various sky conditions, we supplemented the existing Singapore whole sky imaging segmentation database with hazy and overcast images collected by a camera-equipped Waggle sensor node. We found that the U-Net architecture, one of the deep neural networks we utilized, segmented cloud pixels most accurately. However, the accuracy of segmenting cloud pixels did not guarantee high accuracy of estimating solar irradiance. We confirmed that the cloud cover ratio is directly related to solar irradiance. Additionally, we confirmed that solar irradiance and solar power output are closely related; hence, by predicting solar irradiance, we can estimate solar power output. This study demonstrates that sky-facing cameras with machine learning methods can be used to estimate solar power output. This ground-based approach provides an inexpensive way to understand solar irradiance and estimate production from photovoltaic solar facilities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Drivers of Methane Hydrobiogeochemistry in a Tidal River Floodplain System

The influence of coastal ecosystems on global greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets and their response to increasing inundation and salinization remains poorly constrained. In this study, we have integrated an uncertainty quantification (UQ) and ensemble machine learning (ML) framework to identify and rank the most influential processes, properties, and conditions controlling methane behavior in a freshwater floodplain responding to recently restored seawater inundation. Our unique multivariate, multiyear, and multi-site dataset comprises tidal creek and floodplain porewater observations encompassing water level, salinity, pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO 2 ), nitrous oxide (pN 2 O), methane (pCH 4 ), and the stable isotopic composition of methane (δ 13 CH 4 ). Additionally, we incorporated topographical data, soil porosity, hydraulic conductivity, and water retention parameters for UQ analysis using a previously developed 3D variably saturated flow and transport floodplain model for a physical mechanistic understanding of factors influencing groundwater levels and salinity and, therefore, CH 4 . Principal component analysis revealed that groundwater level and salinity are the most significant predictors of overall biogeochemical variability. The ensemble ML models and UQ analyses identified DO, water level, salinity, and temperature as the most influential factors for porewater methane levels and indicated that approximately 80% of the total variability in hourly water levels and around 60% of the total variability in hourly salinity can be explained by permeability, creek water level, and two van Genuchten water retention function parameters: the air-entry suction parameter α and the pore size distribution parameter m. These findings provide insights on the physicochemical factors in methane behavior in coastal ecosystems and their representation in local- to global-scale Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Peatland fires in Alaska will double by the end of the century

During recent summers, warm and dry conditions have increased the occurrence of wildfires and potentially peat-fires across Alaska. Limitations in resolving the fine-scale distribution of peatlands and climate observations have constrained our ability to accurately predict peat-fire dynamics. Using a new high-resolution peatland map of Alaska, we evaluated the climate and environmental controls of past and future peat-fire activity. Ensemble machine learning models identified reduced soil moisture, higher temperatures, and evapotranspiration as key predictors of annual total burned peatland area (tenfold CV R 2 = 0.62, RMSE = 221.1 km 2 ). By the end of the twenty-first century, models forced with climate datasets from representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 emission scenarios project a statewide doubling of burned peatlands (increasing 61–121%), with regional increases ranging from 25–165% in polar, 61–95% in boreal, and 102–106% in maritime ecoregions. These projections indicate that wildfires will progressively encroach further into organic-rich moist and wet peaty soils, potentially amplifying soil carbon release across Alaska.

climate-change ecology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identifications of RR Lyrae Stars and Quasars from the Simulated Data of Mephisto-W Survey

We have investigated the feasibilities and accuracies of the identifications of RR Lyrae stars and quasars from the simulated data of the Multi-channel Photometric Survey Telescope (Mephisto) W Survey. Based on the variable sources light curve libraries from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Stripe 82 data and the observation history simulation from the Mephisto-W Survey Scheduler, we have simulated the uvgriz multi-band light curves of RR Lyrae stars, quasars and other variable sources for the first-year observation of Mephisto W Survey. We have applied the ensemble machine learning algorithm Random Forest Classifier (RFC) to identify RR Lyrae stars and quasars, respectively. We build training and test samples and extract ~150 features from the simulated light curves and train two RFCs respectively for the RR Lyrae star and quasar classification. We find that, our RFCs are able to select the RR Lyrae stars and quasars with remarkably high precision and completeness, with purity = 95.4% and completeness = 96.9% for the RR Lyrae RFC and purity = 91.4% and completeness = 90.2% for the quasar RFC. In conclusion, we have also derived relative importances of the extracted features utilized to classify RR Lyrae stars and quasars.

(galaxies:) quasars: general↗
DOE OSTI2021

Z-Sequence: photometric redshift predictions for galaxy clusters with sequential random k-nearest neighbours

ABSTRACT We introduce Z-Sequence, a novel empirical model that utilizes photometric measurements of observed galaxies within a specified search radius to estimate the photometric redshift of galaxy clusters. Z-Sequence itself is composed of a machine learning ensemble based on the k-nearest neighbours algorithm. We implement an automated feature selection strategy that iteratively determines appropriate combinations of filters and colours to minimize photometric redshift prediction error. We intend for Z-Sequence to be a standalone technique but it can be combined with cluster finders that do not intrinsically predict redshift, such as our own DEEP-CEE. In this proof-of-concept study, we train, fine-tune, and test Z-Sequence on publicly available cluster catalogues derived from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We determine the photometric redshift prediction error of Z-Sequence via the median value of |Δ$z$|/(1 + $z$) (across a photometric redshift range of 0.05 ≤ $z$ ≤ 0.6) to be ∼0.01 when applying a small search radius. The photometric redshift prediction error for test samples increases by 30–50 per cent when the search radius is enlarged, likely due to line-of-sight interloping galaxies. Eventually, we aim to apply Z-Sequence to upcoming imaging surveys such as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time to provide photometric redshift estimates for large samples of as yet undiscovered and distant clusters.

Chan, Matthew C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Continental United States may lose 1.8 petagrams of soil organic carbon under climate change by 2100

Abstract Aims High‐resolution information on soils’ vulnerability to climate‐induced soil organic carbon (SOC) loss can enable environmental scientists, land managers, and policy makers to develop targeted mitigation strategies. This study aims to estimate baseline and decadal changes in continental US surface SOC stocks under future emission scenarios. Location Continental United States. Time period 2014–2100. Methods We used recent SOC field observations ( n = 6,213 sites), environmental factors ( n = 32), and an ensemble machine learning (ML) approach to estimate baseline SOC stocks in surface soils across the continental United States at 100‐m spatial resolution, and decadal changes under the projected climate scenarios of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6) earth system models (ESMs). Results Baseline SOC projections from ML approaches captured more than 50% of variability in SOC observations, whereas ESMs represented only 6–16% of observed SOC variability. ML estimates showed a mean total loss of 1.8 Pg C from US surface soils under the high‐emission scenario by 2100, whereas ESMs showed no significant change in SOC stocks with wide variation among ESMs. Both ML and ESM predictions agree on the direction of SOC change (net emissions or sequestration) across 46–51% of continental US land area. These differences are attributable to the high‐resolution site‐specific data used in the ML models compared to the relatively coarse grid represented in CMIP6 ESMs. Main conclusions Our high‐resolution estimates of baseline SOC stocks, identification of key environmental controllers, and projection of SOC changes from US land cover types under future climate scenarios suggest the need for high‐resolution simulations of SOC in ESMs to represent the heterogeneity of SOC. We found that the SOC change is sensitive to key soil related factors (e.g. soil drainage and soil order) that have not been historically considered as input parameters in ESMs, because currently more than 95% variability in the SOC of CMIP6 ESMs is controlled by net primary productivity, temperature, and precipitation. Using additional environmental factors to estimate the baseline SOC stocks and predict the future trajectory of SOC change can provide more accurate results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of Machine Learning Algorithm for Pebble Bed Modular Reactor Misuse Detection

The objective of this work was to develop a machine learning ensemble that could assist pebble bed reactor verification by evaluating whether a given pebble circulating through a PBR was normal or anomalous using gamma spectroscopy measurements from a notional PBR burnup measurement system. Using a PBR reference design, data sets of synthetic gamma spectra representative of BUMS measurements of normal and anomalous pebbles that may be used to produce special fissile material were generated to train and test an ML anomaly detection ensemble on two reference scenarios – substitution of normal pebbles with target pebbles for production of Pu or 233 U. The ML ensemble correctly identified all anomalous pebbles in the testing data set, and while perfect ensemble performance is normally indicative of overfitting, it was concluded that significantly lower photon intensity of target pebbles produced distinctly less intense photon spectra to where perfect ensemble performance was expected.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sampling lattices in semi-grand canonical ensemble with autoregressive machine learning

Calculating thermodynamic potentials and observables efficiently and accurately is key for the application of statistical mechanics simulations to materials science. However, naive Monte Carlo approaches, on which such calculations are often dependent, struggle to scale to complex materials in many state-of-the-art disciplines such as the design of high entropy alloys or multi-component catalysts. To address this issue, we adapt sampling tools built upon machine learning-based generative modeling to the materials space by transforming them into the semi-grand canonical ensemble. Furthermore, we show that the resulting models are transferable across wide ranges of thermodynamic conditions and can be implemented with any internal energy model U, allowing integration into many existing materials workflows. We demonstrate the applicability of this approach to the simulation of benchmark systems (AgPd, CuAu) that exhibit diverse thermodynamic behavior in their phase diagrams. Finally, we discuss remaining challenges in model development and promising research directions for future improvements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data from: Coupled machine learning-ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes from US croplands

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N₂O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N2O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on approximately 12,000 N2O chamber measurements at 17 U.S. Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N2O at both training (R² = 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha⁻¹ d⁻¹) and held-out testing sites (R² = 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha⁻¹ d⁻¹). Analyses identified six dominant N₂O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH₄⁺, NO₃⁻, water-filled pore space (WFPS), soil temperature, and biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N₂O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N₂O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops.

agricultural sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enabling machine learning-ready HPC ensembles with Merlin

With the growing complexity of computational and experimental facilities, many scientific researchers are turning to machine learning (ML) techniques to analyze large scale ensemble data. With complexities such as multi-component workflows, heterogeneous machine architectures, parallel file systems, and batch scheduling, care must be taken to facilitate this analysis in a high performance computing (HPC) environment. Here, we present Merlin, a workflow framework to enable large ML-friendly ensembles of scientific HPC simulations. By augmenting traditional HPC with distributed compute technologies, Merlin aims to lower the barrier for scientific subject matter experts to incorporate ML into their analysis. As a producer–consumer workflow model, Merlin enables multi-machine, cross-batch job, dynamically allocated yet persistent workflows capable of utilizing surge-compute resources. Key features of Merlin are a flexible HPC-centric interface, low per-task overhead, multi-tiered fault recovery, and a hierarchical sampling algorithm that allows for $\mathscr{O}$(N) task execution and $\mathscr{O}$(N ln N) task queuing to ensembles of millions of tasks. In addition to Merlin’s design, we test the algorithm’s performance in an HPC center and demonstrate the ability to enqueue 40 million simulations in 100 s, with a 30 millisecond per-task overhead that is independent of ensemble size. Finally, we describe some example applications that Merlin has enabled on leadership-class HPC resources, such as the ML-augmented optimization of nuclear fusion experiments and the calibration of infectious disease models to study the progression of and possible mitigation strategies for COVID-19.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ensemble learning-iterative training machine learning for uncertainty quantification and automated experiment in atom-resolved microscopy

Deep learning has emerged as a technique of choice for rapid feature extraction across imaging disciplines, allowing rapid conversion of the data streams to spatial or spatiotemporal arrays of features of interest. However, applications of deep learning in experimental domains are often limited by the out-of-distribution drift between the experiments, where the network trained for one set of imaging conditions becomes sub-optimal for different ones. This limitation is particularly stringent in the quest to have an automated experiment setting, where retraining or transfer learning becomes impractical due to the need for human intervention and associated latencies. Here we explore the reproducibility of deep learning for feature extraction in atom-resolved electron microscopy and introduce workflows based on ensemble learning and iterative training to greatly improve feature detection. This approach allows incorporating uncertainty quantification into the deep learning analysis and also enables rapid automated experimental workflows where retraining of the network to compensate for out-of-distribution drift due to subtle change in imaging conditions is substituted for human operator or programmatic selection of networks from the ensemble. This methodology can be further applied to machine learning workflows in other imaging areas including optical and chemical imaging.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Applications of flow models to the generation of correlated lattice QCD ensembles

Machine-learned normalizing flows can be used in the context of lattice quantum field theory to generate statistically correlated ensembles of lattice gauge fields at different action parameters. This work demonstrates how these correlations can be exploited for variance reduction in the computation of observables. Three different proof-of-concept applications are demonstrated using a novel residual flow architecture: continuum limits of gauge theories, the mass dependence of QCD observables, and hadronic matrix elements based on the Feynman–Hellmann approach. In all three cases, it is shown that statistical uncertainties are significantly reduced when machine-learned flows are incorporated as compared with the same calculations performed with uncorrelated ensembles or direct reweighting. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗