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The relative importance of building design parameters in reducing energy use and sensible heat release from buildings in light of forecasted future weather data and building coverage ratio

Buildings typically have a 60-to-75-year lifespan before they require significant maintenance or modifications. However, most builders evaluate the performance of their new buildings using whole-building energy simulation tools based on the current typical meteorological year (TMY) file or actual meteorological year. The energy use consumption and sensible heat release pattern observed from buildings could potentially change based on shifting global climates. Therefore, the recommended energy-efficiency design parameters might also change during these periods. In this study, we evaluate the role of different building design parameters, such as material reflectivity, HVAC COP, and insulation values, on building energy usage and sensible heat release from buildings with different building coverage ratios (BCR), based on the current and future weather file TMY (fTMY) for the middle of the century (2040–2060). The role of sensible heat release from buildings is not accounted for accurately while estimating building energy usage in most whole-building energy simulations. The study conducts a series of whole-building energy simulation analyses using EnergyPlus to evaluate the role of different design parameters based on TMY and fTMY weather conditions. The analysis is conducted for two hot desert climatic cities: Phoenix (USA) and Abu Dhabi (UAE). The results show that, for the base case in a future climate, the sensible heat release is reduced by an average of 30% due to the reduced delta T between the surface and ambient air. Further, the results show an increase in total energy consumption by 5% annually. The results also show that, for buildings with traditional coatings, shorter buildings release more heat than taller buildings. On the other hand, for buildings with reflective paints, shorter buildings release less heat than taller buildings. The findings from this study can be used by policymakers, utility companies, and builders to better understand the relative role of different building design parameters while constructing new and retrofitting existing buildings.

Alhazmi, Mansour [King Fahd University of Petroleu↗

From roads to roofs: How urban and rural mobility influence building energy consumption

In this article, understanding the relationship between travel behavior and building energy use at an urban scale is crucial for developing effective energy management strategies. Mobility patterns significantly impact building occupancy, which in turn affects energy consumption. However, existing methods often focus on individual buildings, whereas geographical influences on energy usage are not adequately examined. This study addresses this gap by using transportation origin-destination (OD) data to estimate building occupancy and energy. The proposed method assigns OD trips from census block groups to the building level, incorporating building, travel survey, and census data to derive building occupancy profiles. This method was applied to urban and rural areas with 4062 buildings in 70 census block groups. We found that the OD-informed occupancy profile exhibits smoother energy consumption patterns compared with that of Department of Energy reference occupancy profiles. Our analysis reveals distinct building energy consumption patterns among groups with long and short commutes, emphasizing the effect of commute times and work schedules on residential energy usage. This framework is useful for practitioners in transportation agencies and utility companies, enabling the estimation of building energy based on mobility patterns. Overall, this study shows the potential of integrating transportation and building energy data to inform cross-sector energy management strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Initial Design and Experimental Results of a Novel Near-Isothermal Compressor for Heat Pump Applications

In efforts to increase the efficiency of residential and commercial air conditioners and heat pumps, it is found that the compressor has the highest electrical energy usage of the system. Therefore, it is appropriate to try to increase the efficiency of this component to reduce its energy usage. Another challenge with heat pump design is that some compressor types have drawbacks that make modulation difficult. To answer these challenges, we are developing an isothermal liquid compressor. The compressor uses propylene glycol to compress carbon dioxide. In the compression chamber the propylene glycol can enter either from the bottom to create a liquid piston for compression or it can enter through a spray nozzle at the top of the chamber. In the latter case, heat transfer from the gas to be compressed to the liquid droplets is high. This allows near isothermal operation of the compressor, which increases the efficiency by 17% to 30%, compared to adiabatic compression. In addition, the isothermal liquid compressor enables very efficient and simple part load modulation.Experimental results demonstrating the operation of the liquid compressor are presented. Initial data demonstrated a temperature rise of 7 K at pressure ratios of almost 4. For comparison at the same initial pressure, temperature, and pressure ratio, adiabatic compression would result in a temperature increase of approximately 70 K. Plotting data on a P-h diagram demonstrates that the compression started at superheated state and ended in supercritical state. Testing was later performed with repeated compressions in the superheated region of the P-h diagram at liquid flow rates of 2 x 10-3 m3/min and 2 x 10-3 m3/min to understand the limitations of the prototype for use with an actual heat pump system. This work demonstrated a novel cycle on a T-s diagram. Results from this work will be used to develop a second-generation prototype where more rapid cycling is possible.

Kowalski, Steve↗

ComStock™ 2024 Release 1 [SWR-19-33 and SWR-20-32]

ComStock™ is an NREL model of the U.S. commercial building stock. The model takes some building characteristics from the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Commercial Prototype Building Models and Commercial Reference Building. However, unlike many other building stock models, ComStock also combines these with a variety of additional public- and private-sector data sets. Collectively, this information provides high-fidelity building stock representation with a realistic diversity of building characteristics. This repository contains the source code used to build and execute ComStock models, including upgrade scenarios. In addition, the sampling of buildings characteristics used for the initial ComStock (V1.0) release is provided. The ComStock model is under active calibration and development, which is publicly visible on this repository. Execution of the ComStock workflow is managed through the buildstockbatch repository, a shared asset of ResStock™ and ComStock™ , specifically developed to scale to execution of tens of millions of simulations through multiple infrastructure providers. The dataset output from the initial ComStock (V1.0) release can be found at the accompanying ComStock data viewer website and additional information about ComStock found on the NREL Buildings Website. For more details about ongoing model development please consult the End Use Load Profiles website. ComStock is a direct result of the NREL residential stock modeling tool ResStock™ (recipient of a R&D100 award) and was inspired by the high-fidelity solar & storage adoption model dGen™. Additionally, this tool would not be possible without the decades of work undertaken by the OpenStudio® and EnergyPlus® visionaries and contributors, significant funding, feedback and support from the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, and the Department of Energy's Building Technology Office ongoing support of and investment in building energy modeling software. is an analytic methodology for modeling the energy usage of the commercial building stock within the United States of America. The commercial building stock is represented through a sampling of complex probabilistic distributions of various features of interest for modeling energy usage within commercial buildings. Each sample from these distributions is converted into a building energy model based on the features of that specific sample. Each building energy model can be simulated as is, but additional changes can be made to the model through addition of energy conservation measures, component faults, or other desired alterations. The results of the simulations are then processed to provide insights for various stakeholders, including but not limited to policy makers, engineers, and marketers.

Horsey, Henry↗

Understanding power and energy utilization in large scale production physics simulation codes

Power is an often-cited reason for the move to advanced architectures on the path to Exascale computing. Here, this is due to practical considerations related to delivering enough power to successfully site and operate these machines, as well as concerns about energy usage while running large simulations. Since obtaining accurate power measurements can be challenging, it may be tempting to use the processor thermal design power (TDP) as a surrogate due to its simplicity and availability. However, TDP is not indicative of typical power usage while running simulations. Using commodity and advanced technology systems at Lawrence Livermore and Sandia National Labs, we performed a series of experiments to measure power and energy usage in running simulation codes. These experiments indicate that large scale Lawrence Livermore simulation codes are significantly more efficient than a simple processor TDP model might suggest.

HPC↗

Designing Energy-Efficient Quantum Computers Through Prediction and Reduction of Cooling Requirements for Cryogenic Electronics

Quantum computing has been identified as a “wild card” by the International Energy Agency in predicting future global data center energy usage. This is primarily because both uncertainty in the extent to which quantum computing will be adopted, and uncertainty in the power consumption of individual quantum data centers. Unlike the classical counterparts, quantum computers need to be maintained at near absolute zero, requiring energy-intensive cryogenic cooling systems. Therefore, as quantum computers scale up from existing 50 qubit technology demonstrations to the 10,000 to 100,000 qubit systems that will be able to solve complex problems, the energy consumption of both the electronics and the required cooling systems will also increase. To predict this scaling, this work analyzes the energy requirements for both computation and cooling of quantum hardware. We show that the energy requirements for cooling of quantum computers is determined by several computing system parameters, including the number and type of physical qubits, the operating temperature, the packaging efficiency of the system, and the split between circuits operating at cryogenic temperatures and those operating at room temperature. The energy requirements can then be found based on thermal system parameters such as cooling efficiency and cryostat heat transfer. Analysis of these parameters shows that the energy required for cooling is significantly larger than that required for computation, a reversal from energy usage patterns seen in conventional computing. The results and discussions provide a road-map for creating energy efficient quantum computers through the selection of computer architectures and cryogenic system configurations that minimize cooling requirements.

energy efficiency↗

Understanding Power and Energy Utilization in Large Scale Production Physics Simulation Codes

Power is an often-cited reason for moving to advanced architectures on the path to Exascale computing. This is due to the practical concern of delivering enough power to successfully site and operate these machines, as well as concerns over energy usage while running large simulations. Since accurate power measurements can be difficult to obtain, processor thermal design power (TDP) is a possible surrogate due to its simplicity and availability. However, TDP is not indicative of typical power usage while running simulations. Using commodity and advance technology systems at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Sandia National Laboratory, we performed a series of experiments to measure power and energy usage in running simulation codes. These experiments indicate that large scale LLNL simulation codes are significantly more efficient than a simple processor TDP model might suggest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Flue-Gas Desulfurization Effluent Management using an Innovative Low-Energy Biosorpotion Treatment System to Remove Key Contaminants

Among the most critical water contaminants of concern affecting wide geographical regions and a number of industries and natural systems is selenium. Selenium found in surface, ground and wastewater in originates from natural sources, as well as industrial sources such as petroleum refineries, electronics manufacturing, pesticides, and coal power plants and mining also contribute to selenium contamination in water in the US. At high concentrations, selenium is toxic to human and wildlife. There are a number of technologies that have been used to treat selenium and other similar contaminants in water. Biological treatment of selenium has been used in the past to reduce soluble SeVI and/or SeIV to insoluble Se0, which is then filtered in the same vessel. The insoluble selenium (Se0) is then backwashed from the system and solids are separated for subsequent disposal, if they meet the leaching and water content criteria. In order to promote biological reduction to insoluble Se0, heating of bioreactor is needed in some applications, and excess food source (electron donor) is added so that all selenium can be filtered. An additional disadvantage of these systems is the significant amount of water lost due to extensive and frequent backwash and rinse cycles. When comparing the advantages and energy requirements of the various treatment technologies, RO membrane filtration immediately stands out due to the excessive energy expenditure needed to pump water across the membrane although RO is an effective way to remove selenium. In addition, RO requires extensive pretreatment, such as MF membrane, and frequent maintenance, rendering it an expensive option that may be out of reach for certain applications. In fact, although the performance was good during the pilot testing by the NSMP Working Group for treatment naturally occurring selenium in the surface water, the high electricity requirements and significant reject water stream made it an infeasible alternative. While conventional ion exchange maybe an effective treatment option, it requires frequent regeneration of the resin when applied to highly contaminated water, which leads to several tons of contaminant-laden, high-salinity brine that needs to be disposed off-site each day. One of the water systems in the west coast currently uses ion exchange for selenium treatment and has been trucking selenium laden hazardous brine waste weekly in the last several years. Pneumatic pumping and rinse water pumping required for ion exchange also increase the energy usage. In comparison, adsorption process is a passive treatment system where contaminated water comes in contact with an adsorption media in a vessel. Typically, there is no mixing, backwash, or recycle pumping required, thus significantly reducing the energy usage. A passive single-use adsorption system does not require backwash, thereby generating small amount of process waste, and producing the highest water yield among the alternatives. The energy and water efficiencies, and applicability for SeVI and SeIV are summarized in Table 1. Despite these benefits though, adsorption typically does not work for the most oxidized form of selenium (SeVI). The innovative biosorption process integrates both process to increase the treatment efficiency while minimizing energy, chemical, and time required to treat both SeVI and SeIV. Additional advantages include simple partial biological reduction with reduced on-site waste generation, which lead to water and electricity savings, and less operational need compared to biological treatment alone. This makes biosorption especially suitable for remote areas, where liquid backwash and brine disposal may be cost prohibitive or infeasible.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Model predictive control of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems: A state-of-the-art review

Due to the fast advancement of communication and information technology, intelligent buildings have garnered great interest. These buildings can forecast weather, ambient temperature, and sun irradiation and can modify heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) operations appropriately, based on current and previous data. This change is intended to reduce HVAC system energy usage while maintaining an appropriate degree of thermal comfort and indoor air quality. Since its inception, model predictive control (MPC) has been one of the prospective solutions for HVAC management systems to reduce both costs and energy usage. Additionally, MPC is becoming increasingly practical as the processing capacity of building automation systems increases and a large quantity of monitored building data becomes available. MPC also provides the potential to improve the energy efficiency of HVAC systems via its capacity to consider limitations, to predict disruptions, and to factor in multiple competing goals such as interior thermal comfort and building energy consumption. Although substantial research has been conducted on MPC in building HVAC systems, there is a shortage of critical reviews and a lack of a comprehensive framework that formulates and defines the applications. Here, this article provides a comprehensive state-of-the-art overview of MPC in HVAC systems. Detailed discussions of modeling approaches and optimization algorithms are included. Numerous design aspects such as prediction horizon, occupancy behavior, building type, and cost function, that impact MPC performance are discussed in detail. The technical characteristics, advantages, and disadvantages of various types of modeling software are discussed. The primary objective of this work is to highlight critical design characteristics for the MPC control scheme and to give improved suggestions for future research. Moreover, numerous prospective scenarios have been suggested that might provide future research direction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Insights from high-fidelity modeling of industrial rotary bell atomization

The global automotive industry sprayed over 2.6 billion liters of paint in 2018, much of which through electrostatic rotary bell atomization, a highly complex process involving the fluid mechanics of rapidly rotating thin films tearing apart into micrometer-thin filaments and droplets. Coating operations account for 65% of the energy usage in a typical automotive assembly plant, representing 10,000s of gigawatt-hours each year in the United States alone. Optimization of these processes would allow for improved robustness, reduced material waste, increased throughput, and significantly reduced energy usage. Here, we introduce a high-fidelity mathematical and algorithmic framework to analyze rotary bell atomization dynamics at industrially relevant conditions. Our approach couples laboratory experiment with the development of robust non-Newtonian fluid models; devises high-order accurate numerical methods to compute the coupled bell, paint, and gas dynamics; and efficiently exploits high-performance supercomputing architectures. These advances have yielded insight into key dynamics, including i) parametric trends in film, sheeting, and filament characteristics as a function of fluid rheology, delivery rates, and bell speed; ii) the impact of nonuniform film thicknesses on atomization performance; and iii) an understanding of spray composition via primary and secondary atomization. These findings result in coating design principles that are poised to improve energy- and cost-efficiency in a wide array of industrial and manufacturing settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Predictive model for real-time energy disaggregation using long short-term memory

To provide affordable energy-saving solutions for the small and medium-sized manufacturers (SMMs), we propose a unified framework for generating predictive models that support real-time disaggregation of power consumption from combined inputs, enabling automatic machine state identification simultaneously for joint analysis of energy usage patterns. Further, the proposed framework transforms raw power consumption into a time series with look-back and bootstrap capabilities for historical pattern detection, while a learning architecture utilizes the stacked long short-term memory (LSTM) layers as encoders for embedding generation with sequential awareness. Experimental results demonstrate 93.65% minimum accuracy in ideal case of real-time energy usage and machine state prediction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Nexus of electrification and energy efficiency retrofit of commercial buildings at the district scale

Rapid electrification of buildings at the district scale is needed for cities to achieve climate change mitigation goals. However, most electrification studies focus on either the single building level or the city/region building stock level, and depend on the slow and uncertain process of requesting personally identifiable customer energy usage data from utilities. To answer a key question facing local policymakers: “Where can electrification proceed at scale without first upgrading the grid?” this study aims to quantify and inform building electrification impacts at the district scale using detailed building energy modeling and based on public records datasets. We explore how energy efficiency retrofits can help mitigate increased peak electric demand, and quantify impacts to energy use and carbon emissions. Building energy models of a baseline, and scenarios of simple electrification, energy retrofits, and electrification in combination with retrofits were created and simulated for 54 commercial buildings in two contiguous districts of San Francisco. A simple electrification scenario increased annual electricity consumption but reduced annual site energy usage by 15% to 17%, mainly due to replacing inefficient gas furnaces and boilers with more efficient heat pumps. Peak demand increased 7.4% for Fisherman's Wharf (e.g. within the capacity of the existing power grid), while the Design District showed a marginal decrease. Annual carbon emissions were reduced by 46% and 37%. Combining electrification with efficiency upgrades reduced peak demand by 26% and 40%, and annual carbon emissions by 63% and 64% for the two districts. Furthermore, these results indicate that impacts of electrification depend on the mix of building uses within a district, and coupling electrification with energy efficiency upgrades is an effective strategy to decarbonize buildings while maintaining or reducing the peak electric demand.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The role of air sealing while ground source heat pump system retrofits in the U.S. single-family houses

Widespread commercial adoption of ground source heat pumps (GSHP) is hindered by the relatively high initial cost associated with drilling boreholes in the ground to deploy ground heat exchangers. Reducing the energy demand of buildings has the potential to reduce the required borehole length and the associated drilling costs. In single-family residential buildings, air sealing can significantly lower heating energy usage, according to recent studies and reports. Thus, air sealing in conjunction with GSHP retrofits can lower the required GSHP system's capacity and borehole length to meet the thermal demands of the buildings. In order to understand the role of combining air sealing with GSHP retrofit quantitatively, the current study employs a whole building energy simulation tool integrated with an advanced design tool for the ground heat exchanger to determine changes in required GSHP capacity, total borehole length, and building energy consumption for with- and without-air sealing in single-family houses in 3 climate zones in the United States. The study considers one representative city for each climate zone, Phoenix, AZ for a hot climate, Seattle, WA for a moderate climate, and Minneapolis, MN for a cold climate. The results from this study show that reducing air infiltration from 0.8 ACH to the minimum ventilation requirement (0.35 ACH) can reduce borehole length requirement by up to 24% in Phoenix, 32% in Seattle, and 70% in Minneapolis. A similar magnitude of reduction can be seen for GSHP capacity and total building energy usage as well.

Prem Anand Jayaprabha, Jyothis Anand↗

U.S.-China Clean Energy Research Center Building Energy Efficiency (CERC-BEE) Open-Source Retrofit Targeting Tool (CRADA FP00007338 Final Report)

To increase the cost-saving energy and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions reductions in buildings and portfolios at the scale and speed necessary to limit climate change, researchers at LBNL and Johnson Controls (JCI) developed the Building Efficiency Targeting Tool for Energy Retrofits (BETTER). BETTER is a software tool that consists of three components: (1) the BETTER analytical engine source code (which was developed with intellectual property provided by JCI under CRADA FP00007338); (2) the BETTER web application, developed by LBNL and McQuillen Interactive Pty. Ltd; and (3) the BETTER application programming interface (API), also developed by LBNL and McQuillen Interactive Pty. Ltd. BETTER enables building and portfolio owners, managers, and service providers worldwide to quickly, easily identify cost-saving energy efficiency retrofits in existing buildings and portfolios without expensive site visits or complex modeling. With minimal data input, the tool benchmarks a building’s electric and fossil energy usage against peers; quantifies energy, cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction potentials at the building and portfolio levels; and recommends energy efficiency measures to decarbonize and electrify buildings and portfolios, targeting specific energy savings levels. No other tool so comprehensively analyzes buildings and portfolios with such ease. If fully implemented, it is estimated that BETTER could help reduce emissions equivalent to planting 1.3 billion trees globally by 2030. Moreover, an additional 50-75% of embodied GHG emissions could be avoided in each case where BETTER results in a building being retrofitted instead of demolished and replaced, providing substantial additional decarbonization benefits for the buildings sector. BETTER has garnered multiple awards and avid interest from investors. In 2020, it earned a R&D 100 Award for innovation and a LBNL Director’s Award for Technology Transfer. In 2021, BETTER was named an EarthX E-Capital Summit Climate Tech Prize semi-finalist

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Predicting industrial building energy consumption with statistical and machine-learning models informed by physical system parameters

The industrial sector consumes about one-third of global energy, making them a frequent target for energy use reduction. Variation in energy usage is observed with weather conditions, as space conditioning needs to change seasonally, and with production, energy-using equipment is directly tied to production rate. Previous models were based on engineering analyses of equipment and relied on site-specific details. Others consisted of single-variable regressors that did not capture all contributions to energy consumption. Further, new modeling techniques could be applied to rectify these weaknesses. Applying data from 45 different manufacturing plants obtained from industrial energy audits, a supervised machine-learning model is developed to create a general predictor for industrial building energy consumption. The model uses features of air enthalpy, solar radiation, and wind speed to predict weather-dependency; motor, steam, and compressed air system parameters to capture support equipment contributions; and operating schedule, production rate, number of employees, and floor area to determine production-dependency. Results showed that a model that used a linear regressor over a transformed feature space could outperform a support vector machine and utilize features more representative of physical systems. Using informed parameters to build a reliable predictor will more accurately characterize a manufacturing facility's energy savings opportunities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Opportunities to Expand Building Efficiency Programming at Community Colleges

According to the most recent U.S. Energy and Employment Report, more than 2.3 million workers in the United States are involved in activities that reduce energy usage in buildings. This workforce supports energy efficiency from the design of buildings and their systems through the manufacturing and trade of components and supplies involved in these systems to the installation, repair, and maintenance of these systems. Less than 10% of the workers in key building efficiency occupations have a bachelor’s or higher degree, compared to ~40% of the general workforce. Thus, the community college system is a key stakeholder in training and educating a large portion of the building efficiency workforce. Despite this, the literature review conducted for this report found almost no research focused on better understanding and supporting the role of community colleges as they train this workforce at scale. This report seeks to understand how and to what extent building efficiency and advanced building technology concepts are being addressed in community colleges as well as potential pathways for schools to consider to better prepare students to enter the building efficiency industry. The first section presents information from a literature review and data analysis to provide background on the building efficiency workforce, the types of building efficiency training and education available from community colleges, and the barriers and challenges that exist in the workforce. The second section offers a series of case studies that illustrate the various ways that building efficiency content can be addressed at community colleges. The final section provides an overview of the opportunities available to community colleges as well as considerations for schools that want to increase building efficiency programming.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Effects of ambient temperature on electric vehicle range considering battery Performance, powertrain Efficiency, and HVAC load

Here, this study investigates the impact of ambient temperature on the range of electric vehicles (EVs) by analyzing its effects on usable battery energy (UBE), heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) energy consumption, and powertrain energy losses. Chassis dynamometer tests within a thermal chamber were conducted under various temperature conditions to investigate these impacts. The results indicate that lower temperatures lead to a decrease in UBE for lithium-ion batteries in EVs. At −18 °C, the UBE exhibited reductions of 4---8 % compared to the UBE at 22 °C. Battery thermal management strategies significantly affected the UBE loss, with different strategies resulting in distinct UBE reductions. HVAC energy consumption, especially for interior heating, proved to be the most dominant variable affecting EV driving range. Larger discrepancies between the HVAC target temperature (22 °C) and the ambient temperature increased HVAC energy usage. The type of HVAC system also influenced energy consumption, where EVs equipped with heat pumps demonstrated lower energy consumption for heating compared to those relying solely on resistance heaters. Ambient temperature also influenced motor energy consumption due to increased frictions, powertrain losses and tire rolling resistance at lower temperatures; consequently, regenerative braking energy decreased in cold conditions. Combining these effects influenced the overall energy consumption and driving range of EVs. At −18 °C, the driving range saw a substantial decrease of up to 60 % compared to 22 °C, while a slight decrease was observed at 35 °C.

Ambient Temperature↗

Hybrid power plants: An effective way of decreasing loss-of-load expectation

Diversifying variable renewable resources by combining wind, solar photovoltaic, and battery assets in a hybrid power plant can increase renewable energy usage efficiency and improve system flexibility, particularly in distributed energy systems. However, the resilience impact of these systems, particularly outage mitigation, can be difficult to quantify due to uncertainty in resource, energy demand, and outage occurrence. Here, this study outlines a framework to quantify the incremental benefit of hybrid power plant assets for reducing loss-of-load expectation during random outage events. Hybrid power plant performance during outages (considering varying duration and severity) is simulated using a Monte Carlo methodology to reflect uncertainty associated with renewable resource, load demand, and outage timing. Results demonstrate the additional incremental value from increasingly hybrid designs, in which relative capacities of wind, solar photovoltaic, and storage assets contribute to lower loss-of-load expectation than the constituent technologies would alone. The value of added wind or solar capacity increases as the plant composition approaches an equal split. The value of added battery capacity depends on the outage duration and severity, but the first 50 MWh of added storage capacity is the most valuable for reducing the loss-of-load expectation for all plant designs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗