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Electric Grid Reliability in an Era of Unprecedented Uncertainty: A Review of Advances in Electric Sector Resource Adequacy Assessment and Planning

Recent changes to the principal causes of energy shortage events on the electric grid have necessitated are thinking of paradigms for resource adequacy (RA) assessment and the related topic of procurement of a reliable portfolio. Prior studies have laid out elements of a modern paradigm for these planning activities, but there does not exist a comprehensive overview of the topic spanning academic and gray literature, and the relationship of these suggested paradigms to methods used in industry has also not been surveyed. In this paper we review recent literature establishing best practices for RA assessment and reliable portfolio procurement, and survey current practices used in industry in relation to these best practices. We establish seven key best practices for RA assessment, cover a modern methodology for capacity accreditation, and find that industry practices are not far behind the identified best practices, though some key gaps remain. We also present a suggested agenda for both academic research on the topic and opportunities for advancement in the industry.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Evaluation of IEC 62443 Standard Gaps for Electric Grid Substation Model Use Case

This report presents an evaluation of the IEC 62443 standards in the context of electric grid substations, as part of a collaborative effort among Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The primary objective is to assess the applicability of these standards to enhance cybersecurity measures for industrial automation and control systems (IACS) within the energy sector. The evaluation identifies strengths, such as the scalability of security levels and the structured lifecycle guidance provided by IEC 62443. However, it also highlights significant gaps, including limited integration of physical security, insufficient guidance for legacy systems, and challenges in addressing emerging threats like supply chain vulnerabilities. Recommendations for refining the standards are proposed, including the need for tailored guidance for securing legacy systems, integrating physical security with cybersecurity frameworks, and enhancing interoperability across multi-vendor environments. By addressing these gaps, the IEC 62443 standards can be strengthened to ensure comprehensive cybersecurity for electric grid substations, thereby supporting the resilience and reliability of critical energy infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Power Lane County Electric Grid Handbook

In 2024, Lane Couty was selected to participate in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy to Community program. Through the program, National Laboratory researchers from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and the National Laboratory of the Rockies provide three years of technical assistance to Lane County and their project partners: the Center for Rural Livelihoods, Springfield Utility Board, and Emerald People’s Utility District. The project, named Power Lane County, aims to improve local electric system affordability, reliability and resilience in the face of natural hazards and potentially rising loads. The Power Lane County Electric Grid Handbook establishes a foundational understanding of the energy landscape and electric grid in Lane County to inform community engagement, education, and analysis in future project phases. This document synthesizes public data and utility and stakeholder engagement, including utility interviews to give the reader a comprehensive view of the challenges facing Lane County's electric system and the opportunities to address them

Electricity

Opportunities in AI for Electric Grid Applications at Sandia National Laboratories

​​This white paper describes ongoing work and portfolios at Sandia National Laboratories that could be leveraged in AI for electric grid applications. This document highlights several areas where Sandia has developed capabilities that can be used in future work. These areas are human factors, uncertainty quantification, explainability, and trust maturity frameworks. This report provides a look at future collaboration opportunities within the AI for electric grid space at Sandia.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Valuing the Future Electric Grid: A Bid-Based Approach

Energy storage resources (ESRs) and other zero marginal cost (ZMC) resources have unique characteristics that are not fully captured in today’s electricity planning and operations modeling tools. Because the modeling assumptions used in these tools are simplified approximations of how operations and investment decisions occur in the real-world, accurately representing cost and operational characteristics are key for determining how these resources impact price formation. Questions such as—Where should we build new transmission? Will a small modular reactor earn enough revenue to participate in the future electric grid? Is retrofitting a coal plant with carbon capture technology economically feasible?—all require accurate electricity prices, which aren’t available from today’s electricity planning and operations modeling tools. As an example, production cost models (PCMs) are heavily utilized tools that determine the cost and reliability of the electric system. However, as PCMs were developed to help thermal generators manage their fuel inventories, production cost modeling is largely based on fuel prices. Because ESRs do not incur fuel costs, they are often modeled as ZMC resources. In reality, ESRs incur opportunity costs as well as technology-specific (degradation) costs that are non-trivial to calculate but are important for price formation. In this research, we identify options to incorporate more realistic opportunity and degradation costs in ESR bidding algorithms. Expanding available bidding assumptions allows energy system modelers to develop more accurate economic valuations for ESRs, leading to more accurate price formation from leading energy system modeling tools.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

InterGraph-CPS: A Graph-Theoretic Approach to Characterize Cross-Domain Cyber-Physical Interdependencies and Uncertainties in Electric Grid Systems for Improved Decision-Making in Operation and Response

Critical infrastructure systems such as the electric grid are increasingly cyber-physical; yet, despite the cyber-physical characteristics of critical infrastructure systems, the physical process system and communication/control network system are traditionally analyzed in siloes. As these systems become more cyber-physical, it is crucial that models and methods are available to assess the cyber physical system (CPS) interdependencies, characteristics, and event propagation for improved planning, operation, and response. Thus, we proposed an integrated structural and temporal CPS interdependency analysis framework, InterGraph-CPS, that provides insight into the CPS function during normal operation as well as disturbances. This integrated structural and temporal interdependency framework is uniquely designed for assessing CPSs by account for the challenges of analyzing cyber and physical data streams together due to data availability, data type, and time scale differences. By leveraging both structural (e.g., graph analysis) and temporal (e.g., data analytics) techniques, different CPS behaviors and configurations can be accounted for.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Consequential Analysis of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Impacts of Actions That Influence the Electric Grid: The Theory and Practice of Using Marginal Emissions Rates

This paper discusses consequential greenhouse gas emissions analysis for actions that influence the electric grid that is, the analytical approach of estimating how such actions change greenhouse gas emissions, relative to what they otherwise would have been without the action. Although the paper starts with general considerations, it ultimately focuses on consequential analysis with marginal emissions rates as an option likely more scalable than others.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Near Term Reliability and Resilience: Revisiting Resilience Metrics for the Electric Grid

This report presents the metrics employed in the Near-Term Reliability and Resilience (NTRR) project to study the inter-dependencies between electric and natural gas infrastructures, particularly under challenging conditions. These metrics were developed and applied to evaluate the reliability and resilience of the electric grid and natural gas systems in near-term scenarios (within the next 10 years) involving extreme weather events and major supply disruptions. The report defines the metrics, explains how they are calculated, and describes the process by which they are used to evaluate reliability and resilience across simulated scenarios. It also demonstrates how the resilience metrics integrate with other project activities and summarizes the software tools deployed to calculate and visualize the results.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Resource Adequacy and Capital Cost Considerations Pertaining to Large Electric Grids Powered by Wind, Solar, Storage, Gas, and Nuclear

The capacity and generation of wind, solar, storage, nuclear, and gas are estimated for large, idealized copper-plate electric grids. Wind and solar penetrations of 30% to 80% are considered together with different storage systems such as vanadium and lithium-ion batteries, pumped hydroelectric, compressed air, and hydrogen. In addition to a baseline dispatchable fleet without wind/solar, two bounding cases with wind/solar are analyzed: one without storage and one where the whole wind/solar fleet is connected to the storage system, hence providing a buffer between the wind/solar fleet and the grid. The reality will likely be somewhere between these bounding cases. The viability of a power grid with a large wind/solar penetration and no storage is not guaranteed but was nonetheless considered to provide a lower-bound capital cost estimate. Overall, the options that rely strongly on wind, solar, and storage could be significantly more capital-intensive than those that rely strongly on nuclear, depending on the amount of storage necessary to ensure grid stability. This is especially true in the long run because wind, solar, and storage assets have shorter lifetimes than nuclear plants and, consequently, need to be replaced more frequently. More analyses (e.g., grid stability and public acceptance) are necessary to determine which option is most likely to provide the path of least resistance to powering a clean, affordable, and reliable grid in a timely manner. Depending on the priorities, the path of least resistance may not necessarily be the one that is less capital intensive.

adequacy

TASTI-GRID: An Overview of Minnesota's County and Tribal Electric Grid Resilience

This document provides a concise overview of the analytical capabilities of the TASTI-GRID team. Utilizing additional data and resources, it synthesizes platform insights to present a distinct perspective on investing in grid resilience throughout Mississippi. This document is not intended to influence or direct state- level decisions related to investments in grid resilience and reliability. TASTI-GRID should not be used for real-time monitoring, supporting the ESF #12 emergency response functions, or predicting the restoration times for outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Comparative life cycle assessment of woody biomass processing: air classification, drying, and size reduction powered by bioelectricity versus grid electricity

Sulfur accumulation during biofuel production is pollutive and toxic to conversion catalysts and causes the premature breakdown of processing equipment. Air classification is an effective preprocessing technology for ash and sulfur reduction from biomass feedstocks. Here, a life cycle assessment (LCA) sought to understand the environmental impact of implementing air classification as a sulfur-mitigation technique to improve feedstock quality for pine residues using a grid electricity scenario (GES) versus a bioelectricity scenario (BES). Global warming potential (GWP) for preprocessing was simulated using inventory databases embedded in SimaPro and the Argonne National Laboratory’s GREET model, specifically focusing on comparing the GWP of a GES versus a BES. Overall, the GES had a GWP impact over seven times that of the BES (136 versus 18 kg CO 2 equivalent per tonne of usable feedstock), with steam generation during rotary drying accounting for 57% of the GES’s GWP. Air classification represents 0.4% and 1.6% of the total GWP impact for the GES and BES, respectively. Therefore, air classification can facilitate a 30% reduction in feedstock sulfur content to improve feedstock quality for biofuel conversion and lessen corrosion of equipment while contributing minimal GWP impact during preprocessing.

Air classification

Stability, Transient Response, Control, and Safety of a High-Power Electric Grid for Turboelectric Propulsion of Aircraft

This document contains the deliverables for the NASA Research and Technology for Aerospace Propulsion Systems (RTAPS) regarding the stability, transient response, control, and safety study for a high power cryogenic turboelectric distributed propulsion (TeDP) system. The objective of this research effort is to enumerate, characterize, and evaluate the critical issues facing the development of the N3-X concept aircraft. This includes the proposal of electrical grid architecture concepts and an evaluation of any needs for energy storage.

Armstrong, Michael

Responsible Adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Electric Grid Operations

The future of the grid will be powered by AI—or undermined by it. Artificial intelligence is rapidly reshaping grid operations, improving fault detection, forecasting accuracy, and real-time optimization. As AI systems move closer to operational decision loops, however, they introduce new consequence pathways: expanded attack surfaces, model integrity risks, regulatory exposure, and human-automation challenges. This talk presents a consequence-driven framework for deploying AI responsibly in the electric grid. Attendees will gain practical strategies to strengthen resilience, boost reliability, and deploy AI securely — ensuring the grid of the future is not only smarter but safer.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE

Propulsion Electric Grid Simulator (PEGS) for Future Turboelectric Distributed Propulsion Aircraft

NASA Glenn Research Center, in collaboration with the aerospace industry and academia, has begun the development of technology for a future hybrid-wing body electric airplane with a turboelectric distributed propulsion (TeDP) system. It is essential to design a subscale system to emulate the TeDP power grid, which would enable rapid analysis and demonstration of the proof-of-concept of the TeDP electrical system. This paper describes how small electrical machines with their controllers can emulate all the components in a TeDP power train. The whole system model in Matlab/Simulink was first developed and tested in simulation, and the simulation results showed that system dynamic characteristics could be implemented by using the closed-loop control of the electric motor drive systems. Then we designed a subscale experimental system to emulate the entire power system from the turbine engine to the propulsive fans. Firstly, we built a system to emulate a gas turbine engine driving a generator, consisting of two permanent magnet (PM) motors with brushless motor drives, coupled by a shaft. We programmed the first motor and its drive to mimic the speed-torque characteristic of the gas turbine engine, while the second motor and drive act as a generator and produce a torque load on the first motor. Secondly, we built another system of two PM motors and drives to emulate a motor driving a propulsive fan. We programmed the first motor and drive to emulate a wound-rotor synchronous motor. The propulsive fan was emulated by implementing fan maps and flight conditions into the fourth motor and drive, which produce a torque load on the driving motor. The stator of each PM motor is designed to travel axially to change the coupling between rotor and stator. This feature allows the PM motor to more closely emulate a wound-rotor synchronous machine. These techniques can convert the plain motor system into a unique TeDP power grid emulator that enables real-time simulation performance using hardware-in-the-loop (HIL).

electric power grid emulator