Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “electric load”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Preliminary Assessment for the Electric Load Shifting Potential of Integrating Thermal Energy Storage with Heat Pumps in Residential Buildings in Texas of United States

The widespread adoption of electric-driven heat pumps for heating and cooling is expected to significantly increase electric demand. Cooling electric demand will result in an increase in peak hours electric loads, placing additional strain on the grid during peak hours. This challenge, combined with the current rapidly increasing demand from data centers, exacerbates the electric demand duck curve problem. Integrating thermal energy storage (TES) with heat pump can shift electric use for heating and cooling from peak to off-peak hours of the electric grid, which can help flatten the daily electric demand profile of a building. This paper presents a novel design that integrates heat pump with TES (HP-TES), which uses phase change materials (PCM). Heat pump charges TES by melting or freezing PCM during off-peak hours when there is no thermal demand from the building. TES is then discharged (i.e., by freezing or melting PCM) during peak hours to provide a more favorable heat source or heat sink for the heat pump to meet the thermal demand of the building with lower electricity use than conventional air-source heat pumps. Computer simulations were developed to predict the performance of HP-TES applied to a typical single-family house in the US. The building-level simulation results were scaled up to preliminarily assess the aggregated impacts of deploying HP-TES across all single-family houses in Texas of the United States, including reduction of peak demand of the electric grid.

Anees, Fady [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sequence-to-sequence neural networks for short-term electrical load forecasting in commercial office buildings

The U.S. power grid is transforming to become smarter, cleaner, and more effi- cient. This is leading to the addition of significant distributed variable renew- able generation. Due to the variable nature of renewable generation, the short- and long-term supply-demand imbalances are less predictable, and conventional approaches to mitigating the imbalance will not be efficient or cost-effective. To address this challenge, transactive control technologies have been proposed which balance energy generation and consumption with market activity and in- frastructural limitations. Transactive control requires the ability of individual end-use loads to express flexibility as a function of a transactive signal (e.g., price). Empirical gray- and black-box models have been widely used to express flexibility, and although these approaches are generally easy to construct and simple to use, they do not capture the non-linear behavior that some end-use loads represent . Machine learning approaches have been proposed to address this limitation. Although deep learning approaches for forecasting end-use loads have been explored, certain aspects of the application of deep models to load forecasting are not well understood. These aspects include how much training data is required, and how models should be structured and trained. To that end, this work explores how to approach applying deep recurrent neural networks to short-term electrical load forecasting with a case study of four commercial office buildings. We identify data requirements for training accurate models of whole building electricity use conditioned on outdoor temperature, provide insight into model hyperparameter sensitivity, and demonstrate how readily models can be generalized to unseen buildings.

Skomski, Elliott↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying the Effect of Economic Development Zones on Electrical Load Growth in Kentucky [Slides]

The Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet has recently undertaken a comprehensive effort to map and catalog potential economic development sites across the state. The purpose of this technical assistance is to quantify the potential impact of developing designated sites on Kentucky's electricity load growth, providing insights at both state and county level considering the next 10 years. This analysis should explicitly incorporate and address key project uncertainties by developing various load growth scenarios that account for development scale, site specificity, and sector variability. The need for a site-specific analysis comes from the understanding that conventional econometric (top-down) load forecasting models cannot sufficiently isolate or predict the discrete load increases resulting from the development of these unique and targeted economic sites.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

District-Scale Analysis of Electricity Load and Strategies to Improve Energy Reliability Using Prototype District Models

Projected increases in electricity demand in the U.S. highlight the urgent need for effective load management to ensure grid reliability. As the building sector accounts for approximately 75% of electricity usage, enhancing energy efficiency and flexibility in this sector is crucial. Adopting district-level approaches offers significant advantages over traditional individual building analyses by enabling shared infrastructure and economies of scale. To navigate the data and computational challenges associated with modeling energy at the district level, prototype district models have been proposed as holistic, system-level solutions that capture complex interactions within typical configurations. This study presents these models as a reference tool for analyzing district-scale energy systems across various climate zones in the U.S. Developed with input from stakeholders, these models integrate varied building characteristics, inter-building connections, and energy system interactions. A case study utilizing the Urban Edge prototype district model, implemented on the URBANopt™ platform, evaluates multiple demand scenarios and the impact of distributed energy resources such as fuel-fired backup generators, photovoltaic systems, and batteries. Findings suggest that while new electric systems can significantly reduce annual energy use, they may also elevate peak electricity loads, with a notable 43% increase in heating-dominant climate zone 5B. The optimal backup power solutions vary based on location, influenced by factors such as utility rates and incentives. For example, PV and batteries perform well in high-cost regions like New York City, while diesel backup generators are more suitable for backup needs in climate zone 3A, such as Atlanta. Thus, this research highlights the importance of prototype district models for future district-scale energy planning.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Short-term electricity load forecasting: Application-driven evaluation of machine learning models across spatial and temporal scales

As we transition towards a decarbonized economy, the integration of variable renewable energy resources and new demands (e.g., electric vehicles, heat pumps) into the electricity grid places unprecedented pressure on grid operators to effectively anticipate and manage peak load. In this context, machine learning algorithms are proving to be indispensable for accurate short-term load forecasting, a crucial task to address these challenges. This study benchmarks 6 machine learning algorithms, including three neural networks and three tree-based algorithms, across various levels of spatial aggregation and time horizons (1, 4, 8, 24, and 48 h). The central contribution of this work is the comparison and analysis of load forecasting models not only based on statistical metrics, but also based on a novel error metric, which evaluates the cost implications of forecast errors for power system stakeholders. Results show that tree-based models outperform neural networks, based on statistical metrics, and yield less skewed error distributions for most spatial scales. However, through the lens of the novel error metric, neural networks are the more competitive choice, especially for forecast horizons that exceed 8 h. The study concludes with actionable recommendations to grid operators and highlights the need for the development of error metrics that link forecasting accuracy to operational costs. To promote transparency and open science, the datasets and Python code are open-sourced via a supplementary repository.

Houben, Nikolaus↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robust Deep Gaussian Process-Based Probabilistic Electrical Load Forecasting Against Anomalous Events

The abnormal events, such as the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic, can significantly change the load behaviors, leading to huge challenges for traditional short-term forecasting methods. This article proposes a robust deep Gaussian processes (DGP)-based probabilistic load forecasting method using a limited number of data. Since the proposed method only requires a limited number of training samples for load forecasting, it allows us to deal with extreme scenarios that cause short-term load behavior changes. In particular, the load forecasting at the beginning of abnormal event is cast as a regression problem with limited training samples and solved by double stochastic variational inference DGP. The mobility data are also utilized to deal with the uncertainties and pattern changes and enhance the flexibility of the forecasting model. The proposed method can quantify the uncertainties of load forecasting outcomes, which would be essential under uncertain inputs. Extensive comparison results with other state-of-the-art point and probabilistic forecasting methods show that our proposed approach can achieve high forecasting accuracies with only a limited number of data while maintaining the excellent performance of capturing the forecasting uncertainties.

anomalous events↗
DOE OSTI2023

FTR for: Reducing plug-load electricity footprint of residential buildings through low-cost, non-intrusive sub-metering and personalized feedback technology

The project started in October 2016 and ended in December 2022. The project's principal goals and achievements were: (i) Measure real and reactive electric power consumption in ~400 apartments in multifamily settings of varying size and vintage and publish the data; data was published according to New York State's recommended 15x15 rule continuously from Jan 2019 through December 2022 (10 second time resolution); with the combination of large number of apartments, real and reactive power, as well as high time resolution (10-seconds), the dataset is first of its kind worldwide; because the dataset New York City apartment consumption pre, during, and post pandemic, it further offers unique insights into changes in residential electricity consumption during lockdowns and after modified work from home schedules. (ii) Measure effectiveness of different feedback types to prompt residents to lower their electricity consumption; achieved 11% (kWh-weighted) reduction versus baseline consumption; confirmed previous studies that social comparisons elicit above average responses; showed, for the first time, that the so called boomerang effect in power consumption feedback projects can be explained by a previously hypothesized norm-conforming "magnet effect" (rather than a non-conforming defiance effect), thus substantially advancing the research in the field. (iii) Disaggregate apartment-level consumption to appliance level; because the hardware for electricity consumption unexpectedly allowed only for 10-second time resolution (rather than the 1-second resolution we had planned on), the disaggregation algorithms we developed on sample data could not be applied to the actual field data we collected. The project has yielded high visibility, with a total of 17 publications, from peer reviewed journals, published data sets (free access), blog posts, NY Times, National Public Radio, and CNN.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Best Practices in Electricity Load Modeling and Forecasting for Long-Term Power System Planning

This document highlights the best practices on data acquisition and management, modeling and stakeholder engagement required for enhanced load modeling and forecasting. Each section is interspersed with case studies to highlight lessons from different country contexts to highlight both cross-cutting and location specific best practices needed to conduct robust load modeling and forecasting.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Best Practices in Electricity Load Modeling and Forecasting for Long-Term Power System Planning

This report highlights best practices for enhanced load modeling and forecasting for long-term power sector planning. The best practices touch on stakeholder engagement, data acquisition and management, modeling and validation, and scenario development. Case studies are provided to highlight crosscutting lessons that could inform enhanced load modeling and forecasting across different country settings. Though this work presents best practices resulting from support to the PDOE, the list is by no means exhaustive—nor is it meant to be prescriptive.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measuring Flexibility through Reduction Potential

As electrical loads, electric vehicles (EVs) are distinguished in many cases by their substantial flexibility. Harnessing this flexibility, however, requires a precise characterization of its timing and degree. Current approaches to flexibility characterization tend to be limited either by the complexity of their representation or their inability to capture aggregate flexibility across multiple vehicles. In this paper, we present the reduction potential matrix, a novel metric capturing fleet-level EV load flexibility while being both straightforward to calculate and intuitive to interpret. We use the metric to quantify flexibility for two operationally distinct commercial groups: freight vehicles and transit buses. While we find that both vehicle groups have substantial flexibility, its timing, magnitude, and duration varies across the groups. We describe how this variability translates into variation in the each group's role as a grid resource, and conclude with a discussion of how system planners, fleet operators, and other stakeholders can use the novel metric to cultivate symbiosis between vehicles and the grid.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Joint Estimation of Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation in a Community

Distribution grid planning, control, and optimization require accurate estimation of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation and electric load in the system. Most of the small residential solar PV systems are installed behind-the-meter making only the net load readings available to the utilities. This paper presents an unsupervised framework for joint disaggregation of the net load readings of a group of customers into the solar PV generation and electric load. Our algorithm synergistically combines a physical PV system performance model for individual solar PV generation estimation with a statistical model for joint load estimation. The electric loads for a group of customers are estimated jointly by a mixed hidden Markov model (MHMM) which enables modeling the general load consumption behavior present in all customers while acknowledging the individual differences. At the same time, the model can capture the change in load patterns over a time period by the hidden Markov states. The proposed algorithm is also capable of estimating the key technical parameters of the solar PV systems. Our proposed method is evaluated using the net load, electric load, and solar PV generation data gathered from residential customers located in Austin, Texas. Testing results show that our proposed method reduces the mean squared error of state-of-the-art net-load disaggregation algorithms by 67%.

behind-the-meter solar generation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of Load Models for Estimating Electrical Efficiency in DC Microgrids: Preprint

This paper compares several electrical load models for estimating the efficiency of DC vs. AC distribution in microgrids. Candidate models include energy balance, harmonic power flow, and time-domain modeling. Model results are compared with numerical studies and validated with experimental measurements. Based on quantitative and qualitative considerations, the most appropriate load modeling approach for larger-scale DC distribution efficiency studies is proposed.

DC distribution↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design of Phase-Change Thermal Storage Device in a Heat Pump for Building Electric Peak Load Shaving: Preprint

Replacing carbon-intensive fossil fuel heating systems with electric heat pumps powered by renewables is a promising approach to decarbonize the building sector. However, one of the technical barriers of this approach is the large scale of heat demand, which will put excessive stress on the electricity grid. Integrating thermal energy storage (TES) into the heating systems can help alleviate this problem, by shifting thermal load and thus shaving peaks in the building electric load. Therefore, it is critical to understand how to design a thermal storage device in a heat pump for peak load shaving. In this study, we developed a numerical model for a cascaded vapor compression heat pump system integrating a phase change thermal storage device. This novel system can control the net thermal charging and discharging rate of the TES independently from the building's thermal load, which allows for precise control of electric power use. In the current study, we controlled the system to shave building electric peak load during a cold winter morning, and to charge TES during the relatively warm afternoon while still providing space heating. We used the model to evaluate the system performance with and without peak shaving. We also investigated the effect of PCM transition Tt on the peak reduction and electric energy saving potentials. The results show that peak shaving scheme effectively reduces the peak electric power consumption during a predefined discharge time window. When comparing to the no shaving case, for PCM Tt = 10 degrees C, the peak electric load reduction is 23.5%. When comparing to an air-source heat pump with back up electric heater, as Tt increases from 0 to 20 degrees C, the peak reduction increases from 46.1% to 50.9%. Integrating PCM Tt = 10 degrees C with peak shaving leads to the 45.5% of electric energy saving, which is the highest among the three transition temperatures.

electric energy saving↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detailed Evaluation of Electric Demand Load Shifting Potential of Heat Pump Water Heaters

Future utilities will emphasize home appliances to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while providing electric load shifting and demand profile management. Heat pump water heaters (HPWH) have demonstrated the ability to cut water heating energy by more than 65% compared with conventional electric resistance waters (ERWH). Laboratory research was conducted on the load shifting potential of grid-connected heat pump water heaters (HPWH), compared to ERWHs. Testing applied different CTA-2045 command designs. Highly-controlled laboratory experiments were conducted on one ERWH and four HPWHs, including a prototype incorporating the new CTA-2045-B protocol feature allowing ‘advanced’ load up above the tank setpoint. The prototype unit with the B-protocol increased tank temperature by 15oF (8.3C) under the advanced load up providing an increase of 1.8 kWh of storage for a 50-gallon (189 liter) tank. The prototype includes a built-in mixing valve to meet anti-scalding codes. With the load-shaping ability of CTA-2045-B, utilities might be able to store excess renewable energy in connected tanks when renewable wind and solar resource production is high. Tests were performed under baseline conditions (no load shift) and under several load-shifting schemes, including load up and advanced load up, ahead of shed commands. Grid-connected HPWHs reduced peak demand by as much as 0.5 kW, depending on tank volume, time of day, control scheme, and draw profile.

heat pump water heater, Demand flexibility, load s↗
DOE OSTI2025

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗
DOE OSTI2021

ENERGY STAR Residential Water Heater Specification and Test Method for Connected Residential Water Heaters

Electric water heaters have long been used as a tool for demand response due to their inherent thermal storage and large electric load. Traditionally, electric water heaters have been controlled by external load control switches, but that type of control does not work well with more efficient heat pump water heaters and cannot ensure that consumers have adequate hot water. Water heater manufacturers are adding more sophisticated controls that allow utilities or consumers to control their water heaters in new ways that can provide demand response without impacting consumer comfort. Further, the electric utility grid has seen a rapid increase the availability of renewable energy, which, depending on the type of renewable energy, can provide large amounts of energy for a portion of the day, but reduced or no energy at other times. In response to these advances in controls, availability of periodic renewable energy, and in an effort to have a standard which can be applied at a national level, ENERGY STAR and the Department of Energy have developed a Product Specification and Test Method for Connected Residential Water Heaters. In this session, we will discuss the new specification and test method, as well as show some initial results from running the new test method with two different HPWHs at NREL.

connected water heater↗