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Risk-Based Fire Safety Experiment Definition for Manned Spacecraft

Risk methodology is used to define experiments to be conducted in space which will help to construct and test the models required for accident sequence identification. The development of accident scenarios is based on the realization that whether damage occurs depends on the time competition of two processes: the ignition and creation of an adverse environment, and the detection and suppression activities. If the fire grows and causes damage faster than it is detected and suppressed, then an accident occurred. The proposed integrated experiments will provide information on individual models that apply to each of the above processes, as well as previously unidentified interactions and processes, if any. Initially, models that are used in terrestrial fire risk assessments are considered. These include heat and smoke release models, detection and suppression models, as well as damage models. In cases where the absence of gravity substantially invalidates a model, alternate models will be developed. Models that depend on buoyancy effects, such as the multizone compartment fire models, are included in these cases. The experiments will be performed in a variety of geometries simulating habitable areas, racks, and other spaces. These simulations will necessitate theoretical studies of scaling effects. Sensitivity studies will also be carried out including the effects of varying oxygen concentrations, pressures, fuel orientation and geometry, and air flow rates. The experimental apparatus described herein includes three major modules: the combustion, the fluids, and the command and power modules.

Apostolakis, G. E.

An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence

We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S . This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult‐to‐quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6‐3.9 K for our Baseline calculation, and remains within 2.3‐4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5‐95% ranges are 2.3‐4.7 K, bounded by 2.0‐5.7 K (although such high‐confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent, and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S , in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing‐feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.

Climate

Preconditioned domain decomposition scheme for three-dimensional aerodynamic sensitivity analysis

A preconditioned domain decomposition scheme is introduced for the solution of the 3D aerodynamic sensitivity equation. This scheme uses the iterative GMRES procedure to solve the effective sensitivity equation of the boundary-interface cells in the sensitivity analysis domain-decomposition scheme. Excluding the dense matrices and the effect of cross terms between boundary-interfaces is found to produce an efficient preconditioning matrix.

Eleshaky, Mohammed E.

Characteristics of Pressure Sensitive Paint Intrusiveness Effects on Aerodynamic Data

One effect of using pressure sensitive paint (PSP) is the potential intrusiveness to the aerodynamic characteristics of the model. The paint thickness and roughness may affect the pressure distribution, and therefore, the forces and moments on the wind tunnel model. A study of these potential intrusive effects was carried out at NASA Langley Research Center where a series of wind tunnel tests were conducted using the Modem Design of Experiments (MDOE) test approach. The PSP effects on the integrated forces were measured on two different models at different test conditions in both the Low Turbulence Pressure Tunnel (LTPT) and the Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel (UPWT) at Langley. The paint effect was found to be very small over a range of Reynolds numbers, Mach numbers and angles of attack. This is due to the very low surface roughness of the painted surface. The surface roughness, after applying the NASA Langley developed PSP, was lower than that of the clean wing. However, the PSP coating had a localized effects on the pressure taps, which leads to an appreciable decrease in the pressure tap reading.

Amer, Tahani R.

Characterization of Pressure Sensitive Paint Intrusiveness Effects on Aerodynamic Data

One effect of using pressure sensitive paint (PSP) is the potential intrusiveness to the aerodynamic characteristics of the model. The paint thickness and roughness may affect the pressure distribution. and therefore, the forces and moments on the wind tunnel model. A study of these potential intrusive effects was carried out at NASA Langley Research Center where a series of wind tunnel tests were conducted using the Modem Design of Experiments (MDOE) test approach. The PSP effects on the integrated forces were measured on two different models at different test conditions in both the Low Turbulence Pressure Tunnel (LTPT) and the Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel (UPWT) at Langley. The paint effect was found to be very small over a range of Reynolds numbers, Mach numbers and angles of attack. This is due to the very low surface roughness of the painted surface. The surface roughness, after applying the NASA Langley developed PSP, was lower than that of the clean wing. However, the PSP coating had a localized effects on the pressure taps, which leads to an appreciable decrease in the pressure tap reading.

Amer, Tahani R.

Bringing Gravity to Space

This panel will present NASA's plans for ongoing and future research to define the requirements for Artificial Gravity (AG) as a countermeasure against the negative health effects of long-duration weightlessness. AG could mitigate the gravity-sensitive effects of spaceflight across a host of physiological systems. Bringing gravity to space could mitigate the sensorimotor and neuro-vestibular disturbances induced by G-transitions upon reaching a planetary body, and the cardiovascular deconditioning and musculoskeletal weakness induced by weightlessness. Of particular interest for AG during deep-space missions is mitigation of the Visual Impairment Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome that the majority of astronauts exhibit in space to varying degrees, and which presumably is associated with weightlessness-induced fluid shift from lower to upper body segments. AG could be very effective for reversing the fluid shift and thus help prevent VIIP. The first presentation by Dr. Charles will summarize some of the ground-based and (very little) space-based research that has been conducted on AG by the various space programs. Dr. Paloski will address the use of AG during deep-space exploration-class missions and describe the different AG scenarios such as intra-vehicular, part-of-vehicle, or whole-vehicle centrifugations. Dr. Clement will discuss currently planned NASA research as well as how to coordinate future activities among NASA's international partners. Dr. Barr will describe some possible future plans for using space- and ground-based partial-G analogs to define the relationship between physiological responses and G levels between 0 and 1. Finally, Dr. Stenger will summarize how the human cardiovascular system could benefit from intermittent short-radius centrifugations during long-duration missions.

Norsk, P.

Lunar magnetic permeability studies and magnetometer sensitivity

A regression of quiet magnetic field components simultaneously measured by the two Explorer 35 magnetometers reveals uncertainties in effective sensitivity factors of up to a few percent in one or both of these instruments. Given this, the validity of previous lunar permeability studies based on Explorer 35/ALSEP regressions, wherein inferences are drawn from regression line slopes differing from unity by the order of one percent, is called into question. We emphasize the need to critically address the question of small deviations in magnetometer sensitivity factors from nominal values as a part of any two-magnetometer lunar permeability study.

King, J. H.

Study of a porous surface microphone sensor in an aerofoil

The porous microphone in an airfoil is described as a directional sensor which rejects flow noise. The airfoil allows the sensor to be rotated in the airflow over a wide range of yaw angles, 0 to 90 degrees, avoiding flow separation over the surface of the sensor and its associated additional flow noise. The microphone is discussed in terms of its acoustic properties, vibration sensitivity, effect of Mach number on the directivity function, and flow noise. Additional information on the acoustic calibration of the microphone, the acceleration sensitivity of the airfoil, stationary source and receiver in a moving gas, acoustic tests in airflow, and flow noise tests of the airfoil porous surface sensor is included.

Noiseux, D. U.

Performance Assessment of the Optical Transient Detector and Lightning Imaging Sensor: Predicted Diurnal Variability - 1

Laboratory calibration and observed background radiance data are used to determine the effective sensitivities of the Optical Transient Detector and Lightning Imaging Sensor, as functions of local hour and pixel location within the instrument arrays. The effective LIS thresholds, expressed as radiances emitted normal to cloud top, are 4.0 plus or minus 0.7 and 7.6 plus or minus 3.3 micro J/ster/m (sup 2) for night and local noon; the OTD thresholds am 11.7 plus or minus 2.2 and 16.8 plus or minus 4.6 microJ/ster/m (sup 2). LIS and OTD minimum signal to noise ratios occur from 0800 to 1600 local time, and attain values of 10 plus or minus 2 and 20 plus or minus 3, respectively. False alarm rate due to instrument noise yields approximately 5 false triggers per month for LIS, and is negligible for OTD. Flash detection efficiency, based on prior optical pulse sensor measurements, is predicted to be 93 plus or minus 4% and 73 plus or minus 11% for LIS night and noon; 56 plus or minus 7% and 44 plus or minus 9% for OTD night and noon, corresponding to a 12 - 20% diurnal variability and LIS:OTD ratio of 1.7. Use of the weighted daily mean detection efficiency (i.e., not controlling for local hour) corresponds to a sigma = 8 - 9% uncertainty. These are likely overestimates of actual flash detection efficiency due to differences in pixel ground field-of-view across the instrument arrays, which are not accounted for in the validation optical pulse sensor data.

Boccippio, Dennis J.

New Uses for Sensitivity Analysis: How Different Movement Tasks Effect Limb Model Parameter Sensitivity

Original results for a newly developed eight-order nonlinear limb antagonistic muscle model of elbow flexion and extension are presented. A wider variety of sensitivity analysis techniques are used and a systematic protocol is established that shows how the different methods can be used efficiently to complement one another for maximum insight into model sensitivity. It is explicitly shown how the sensitivity of output behaviors to model parameters is a function of the controller input sequence, i.e., of the movement task. When the task is changed (for instance, from an input sequence that results in the usual fast movement task to a slower movement that may also involve external loading, etc.) the set of parameters with high sensitivity will in general also change. Such task-specific use of sensitivity analysis techniques identifies the set of parameters most important for a given task, and even suggests task-specific model reduction possibilities.

Winters, J. M.

Influence of fiber architecture on the elastic an d inelastic response of metal matrix composites

This three part paper focuses on the effect of fiber architecture (i.e., shape and distribution) on the elastic and inelastic response of metal matrix composites. The first part provides an annotative survey of the literature, presented as a historical perspective, dealing with the effects of fiber shape and distribution on the response of advanced polymeric matrix and metal matrix composites. Previous investigations dealing with both continuously and discontinuously reinforced composites are included. A summary of the state-of-the-art will assist in defining new directions in this quickly reviving area of research. The second part outlines a recently developed analytical micromechanics model that is particularly well suited for studying the influence of these effects on the response of metal matrix composites. This micromechanics model, referred to as the generalized method of cells (GMC), is capable of predicting the overall, inelastic behavior of unidirectional, multi-phased composites given the properties of the constituents. In particular, the model is sufficiently general to predict the response of unidirectional composites reinforced by either continuous or discontinuous fibers with different inclusion shapes and spatial arrangements in the presence of either perfect or imperfect interfaces and/or interfacial layers. Recent developments regarding this promising model, as well as directions for future enhancements of the model's predictive capability, are included. Finally, the third pan provides qualitative results generated using GMC for a representative titanium matix composite system, SCS-6/TlMETAL 21S. Results are presented that correctly demonstrate the relative effects of fiber arrangement and shape on the longitudinal and transverse stress-strain and creep response, with both strong and weak fiber/matrix interfacial bonds. The fiber arrangements include square, square diagonal, hexagonal and rectangular periodic arrays, as well as a random array. The fiber shapes include circular, square and cross-shaped cross sections. The effect of fiber volume fraction on the observed stress-strain response is also discussed, as the thus-far poorly documented strain rate sensitivity effect. In addition to the well documented features of architecture dependent response of continuously reinforced two-phase MMC's, new results involving continuous multi-phase internal architectures are presented. Specifically, stress strain and creep response of composites with different size fibers having different internal arrangements and bond strengths are investigated with the aim of determining the feasibility of using this approach to enhance the transverse toughness and creep resistance of TMC's.

Arnold, Steven M.

A Perceptual Repetition Blindness Effect

Before concluding Repetition Blindness is a perceptual phenomenon, alternative explanations based on memory retrieval problems and report bias must be rejected. Memory problems were minimized by requiring a judgment about only a single briefly displayed field. Bias and sensitivity effects were empirically measured with an ROC-curve analysis method based on confidence ratings. Results from five experiments support the hypothesis that Repetition Blindness can be a perceptual phenomenon.

Hochhaus, Larry

Arctic ocean radiative fluxes and cloud forcing estimated from the ISCCP C2 cloud dataset, 1983-1990

Radiative fluxes and cloud forcings for the ocean areas of the Arctic are computed from the monthly cloud product of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) for 1983-90. Spatially averaged short-wave fluxes are compared well with climatological values, while downwelling longwave fluxes are significantly lower. This is probably due to the fact that the ISCCP cloud amounts are underestimates. Top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes are in excellent agreement with measurements from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). Computed cloud forcings indicate that clouds have a warming effect at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere during winter and a cooling effect during summer. The net radiative effect of clouds is larger at the surface during winter but greater at the top of the atmosphere during summer. Overall the net radiative effect of clouds at the top of the atmosphere is one of cooling. This is in contrast to a previous result from ERBE data showing arctic cloud forcings have a net warming effect. Sensitivities to errors in input parameters are generally greater during winter with cloud amount being the most important paarameter. During summer the surface radiation balance is most sensitive to errors in the measurements of surface reflectance. The results are encouraging, but the estimated error of 20 W/sq m in surface net radiative fluxes is too large, given that estimates of the net radiative warming effect due to a doubling of CO2 are on the order of 4 W/sq m. Because it is difficult to determine the accuracy of results with existing in situ observations, it is recommended that the development of improved algorithms for the retrieval of surface radiative properties be accompanied by the simultaneous assembly of validation datasets.

Schweiger, Axel J.

Radiative Susceptibility of Cloudy Atmospheres to Droplet Number Perturbations: 1. Theoretical Analysis and Examples from MODIS

Theoretical and satellite-based assessments of the sensitivity of broadband shortwave radiative fluxes in cloudy atmospheres to small perturbations in the cloud droplet number concentration (N) of liquid water clouds under constant water conditions are performed. Two approaches to study this sensitivity are adopted: absolute increases in N, for which the radiative response is referred to as absolute cloud susceptibility, and relative increases in N or relative cloud susceptibility. Estimating the former is more challenging as it requires an assumed value for either cloud liquid water content or geometrical thickness; both susceptibilities require an assumed relationship between the droplet volume and effective radius. Expanding upon previous susceptibility studies, present radiative calculations include the effect of AN perturbations on droplet asymmetry parameter and single-scattering albedo, in addition to extinction. Absolute cloud susceptibility has a strong nonlinear dependence on the droplet effective radius as expected, while relative cloud susceptibility is primarily dependent on optical thickness. Molecular absorption and reflecting surfaces both reduce the relative contribution of the cloud to the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) flux and therefore also reduce the TOA albedo susceptibility. Transmittance susceptibilities are negative with absolute values similar to albedo susceptibility, while atmospheric absorptance susceptibilities are about an order of magnitude smaller than albedo susceptibilities and can be either positive or negative. Observation-based susceptibility calculations are derived from MODIS pixel-level retrievals of liquid water cloud optical thickness, effective radius, and cloud top temperature; two data granule examples are shown. Susceptibility quantifies the aerosol indirect effect sensitivity in a way that can be easily computed from model fields. As such, susceptibilities derived from MODIS observations provide a higher-order test of model cloud properties used for indirect effect studies. MODIS-derived global distributions of cloud susceptibility and radiative forcing calculations are presented in a companion paper.

Platnick, Steven

Evaluation of film type QX 807 (SO-368, Kodak Ektachrome MS, Estar thin base, with an equivalent Wratten 2A filter overcoat)

A color film with a sensitivity and color balance equal to SO-368, Kodak MS Ektachrome (Estar thin base) was required for use on the Apollo-Soyuz test project (ASTP). A Wratten 2A filter was required for use with the film to reduce short wavelength effects which frequently produce a blue color balance in aerial photographs. The background regarding a special emulsion which was produced with a 2A filter equivalent as an integral part of an SO-368 film manufactured by Eastman Kodak, the cost for production of the special film, and the results of a series of tests made within PTD to certify the film for ASTP use are documented. The tests conducted and documented were physical inspection, process compatibility, effective sensitivity, color balance, cross section analysis, resolution, spectral sensitivity, consistency of results, and picture sample analysis.

Lockwood, H. E.

Limb congestion enhances the synchronization of sympathetic outflow with muscle contraction

In this report, we examined if the synchronization of muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA) with muscle contraction is enhanced by limb congestion. To explore this relationship, we applied signal-averaging techniques to the MSNA signal obtained during short bouts of forearm contraction (2-s contraction/3-s rest cycle) at 40% maximal voluntary contraction for 5 min. We performed this analysis before and after forearm venous congestion; an intervention that augments the autonomic response to sustained static muscle contractions via a local effect on muscle afferents. There was an increased percentage of the MSNA noted during second 2 of the 5-s contraction/rest cycles. The percentage of total MSNA seen during this particular second increased from minute 1 to 5 of contraction and was increased further by limb congestion (control minute 1 = 25.6 +/- 2.0%, minute 5 = 32.8 +/- 2.2%; limb congestion minute 1 = 29.3 +/- 2.1%, minute 5 = 37.8 +/- 3.9%; exercise main effect <0.005; limb congestion main effect P = 0.054). These changes in the distribution of signal-averaged MSNA were seen despite the fact that the mean number of sympathetic discharges did not increase over baseline. We conclude that synchronization of contraction and MSNA is seen during short repetitive bouts of handgrip. The sensitizing effect of contraction time and limb congestion are apparently due to feedback from muscle afferents within the exercising muscle.

Non-NASA Center

Resistance fail strain gage technology as applied to composite materials

Existing strain gage technologies as applied to orthotropic composite materials are reviewed. The bonding procedures, transverse sensitivity effects, errors due to gage misalignment, and temperature compensation methods are addressed. Numerical examples are included where appropriate. It is shown that the orthotropic behavior of composites can result in experimental error which would not be expected based on practical experience with isotropic materials. In certain cases, the transverse sensitivity of strain gages and/or slight gage misalignment can result in strain measurement errors.

Tuttle, M. E.

Resistance-foil strain-gage technology as applied to composite materials

A general review of existing strain-gage technologies as applied to orthotropic-composite materials is given. The specific topics addressed are gage-bonding procedures, transverse-sensitivity effects, errors due to gage misalignment, and temperature-compensation methods. The discussion is supplemented by numerical examples where appropriate. It is shown that the orthotropic behavior of composites can result in experimental error which would not be expected based on practical experience with isotropic materials. In certain cases, the transverse sensitivity of strain gages and/or slight gage misalignment can result in strain-measurement errors exceeding 50 percent.

Tuttle, M. E.