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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Opportunities for enhancing MLCommons efforts while leveraging insights from educational MLCommons earthquake benchmarks efforts

MLCommons is an effort to develop and improve the artificial intelligence (AI) ecosystem through benchmarks, public data sets, and research. It consists of members from start-ups, leading companies, academics, and non-profits from around the world. The goal is to make machine learning better for everyone. In order to increase participation by others, educational institutions provide valuable opportunities for engagement. In this article, we identify numerous insights obtained from different viewpoints as part of efforts to utilize high-performance computing (HPC) big data systems in existing education while developing and conducting science benchmarks for earthquake prediction. As this activity was conducted across multiple educational efforts, we project if and how it is possible to make such efforts available on a wider scale. This includes the integration of sophisticated benchmarks into courses and research activities at universities, exposing the students and researchers to topics that are otherwise typically not sufficiently covered in current course curricula as we witnessed from our practical experience across multiple organizations. As such, we have outlined the many lessons we learned throughout these efforts, culminating in the need for benchmark carpentry for scientists using advanced computational resources. The article also presents the analysis of an earthquake prediction code benchmark while focusing on the accuracy of the results and not only on the runtime; notedly, this benchmark was created as a result of our lessons learned. Energy traces were produced throughout these benchmarks, which are vital to analyzing the power expenditure within HPC environments. Additionally, one of the insights is that in the short time of the project with limited student availability, the activity was only possible by utilizing a benchmark runtime pipeline while developing and using software to generate jobs from the permutation of hyperparameters automatically. It integrates a templated job management framework for executing tasks and experiments based on hyperparameters while leveraging hybrid compute resources available at different institutions. The software is part of a collection called cloudmesh with its newly developed components, cloudmesh-ee (experiment executor) and cloudmesh-cc (compute coordinator).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

EQSIM and RAJA: Enabling Exascale Predictions of Earthquake Effects on Critical Infrastructure

Nearly 120 years ago, the great “San Francisco” earthquake of 1906 provided a stark and sobering view of the havoc that can be caused by the sudden and violent movement of Earth’s tectonic plates. According to USGS, the rupture along the San Andreas fault extended 296 miles (447 kilometers) and shook so violently that the motion could be felt as far north as Oregon and east into Nevada. The estimated 7.9-magnitude quake and subsequent fires decimated the major metropolis and surrounding areas: buildings turned to ruins, hundreds of thousands of people left homeless, and a death toll exceeding 3,000. Today, as evidenced by the catastrophic 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck Turkey in February of 2023, large earthquakes still present a significant potential danger to life and economic security as researchers work to develop ways to better understand earthquake phenomena and quantify associated risks.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

EQSIM: Exascale Predictions of Earthquake Effects on Critical Infrastructure

The great “San Francisco” earthquake of 1906 is one of the most recognized, and sobering, demonstrations of the havoc that can be caused by the sudden and violent movement of Earth’s tectonic plates. The estimated 7.9-magnitude quake and subsequent fires decimated the major metropolis and surrounding areas: buildings turned to ruins, hundreds of thousands of people left homeless, and a death toll exceeding 3,000. Today, as evidenced by the catastrophic 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck Turkey in February 2023, these events still present a significant danger to life and economic security. To mitigate the potential devastation of future earthquakes and better prepare for these inevitable events, researchers are turning to high-performance computers to simulate the underlying geophysical processes and accurately quantify associated risks to critical infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Fault Tracking and Ground Motion Prediction for Large Earthquakes With HR-GNSS and Deep Learning

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems aim to forecast the shaking intensity rapidly after an earthquake occurs and send warnings to affected areas before the onset of strong shaking. The system relies on rapid and accurate estimation of earthquake source parameters. However, it is known that source estimation for large ruptures in real-time is challenging, and it often leads to magnitude underestimation. In a previous study, we showed that machine learning, HR-GNSS, and realistic rupture synthetics can be used to reliably predict earthquake magnitude. This model, called Machine-Learning Assessed Rapid Geodetic Earthquake model (M-LARGE), can rapidly forecast large earthquake magnitudes with an accuracy of 99%. Here, we expand M-LARGE to predict centroid location and fault size, enabling the construction of the fault rupture extent for forecasting shaking intensity using existing ground motion models. We test our model in the Chilean Subduction Zone with thousands of simulated and five real large earthquakes. The result achieves an average warning time of 40.5 s for shaking intensity MMI4+, surpassing the 34 s obtained by a similar GNSS EEW model. Our approach addresses a critical gap in existing EEW systems for large earthquakes by demonstrating real-time fault tracking feasibility without saturation issues. This capability leads to timely and accurate ground motion forecasts and can support other methods, enhancing the overall effectiveness of EEW systems. Additionally, the ability to predict source parameters for real Chilean earthquakes implies that synthetic data, governed by our understanding of earthquake scaling, is consistent with the actual rupture processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

Precise leveling, space geodesy and geodynamics

The implications of currently available leveling data on understanding the crustal dynamics of the continental United States are investigated. Neotectonic deformation, near surface movements, systematic errors in releveling measurements, and the implications of this information for earthquake prediction are described. Vertical crustal movements in the vicinity of the 1931 Valentine, Texas, earthquake which may represent coseismic deformation are investigated. The detection of vertical fault displacements by precise leveling in western Kentucky is reported. An empirical basis for defining releveling anomalies and its implications for crustal deformation in southern California is presented. Releveling measurements in the eastern United States and their meaning in the context of possible crustal deformation, including uplift of the Appalachian Mountains, eastward tilting of the Atlantic Coastal Plain, and apparent movements associated with a number of structural features along the east coast, are reported.

Reilinger, R.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior (Final Technical Report)

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) produce clean energy by circulating fluid through hot rock deep underground and bringing that heat to the surface to generate electricity. For this process to work reliably, fluids must be able to move efficiently through networks of natural or engineered fractures in the rock. Enhancing and maintaining subsurface permeability over time is essential for sustainable energy production. However, fluid injection changes the underground temperature, pressure, rock stress, and chemistry, which can alter permeability and sometimes trigger earthquakes. Predicting these interconnected processes remains a key challenge. To address this, we combined high-temperature laboratory experiments with high-fidelity simulations to better understand how fractures in geothermal reservoirs evolve over time. Our experiments measured how fractures respond to stress, slip, slip rate, and chemical reactions under geothermal conditions. These data were integrated into coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical and earthquake (THMC+E) models tailored to the Utah FORGE site. The validated modeling framework improves predictions of reservoir performance and seismic response and helps guide operational decisions. This work reduces technical risk and strengthens the scientific foundation needed to make geothermal energy a reliable and scalable clean energy resource.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

New Opportunities to Study Earthquake Precursors

The topic of earthquake prediction has a long history, littered with failed attempts. Part of the challenge is that possible precursory signals are usually reported after the event, and the systematic relationships between potential precursors and main events, should they exist, are unclear. Furthermore, several recent studies have shown the potential of new approaches to simultaneously detect earthquake foreshocks and slow-slip phenomena through ground deformation, seismic, and gravitational transients—weeks to months before large subduction zone earthquakes. The entire international community of earthquake researchers should be engaged in deploying instrumentation, sharing data in real time, and improving physical models to resolve the extent to which slow slip events and earthquake swarms enhance the likelihood (or not) for later, larger earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1975

Active microwave remote sensing of earth/land, chapter 2

Geoscience applications of active microwave remote sensing systems are examined. Major application areas for the system include: (1) exploration of petroleum, mineral, and ground water resources, (2) mapping surface and structural features, (3) terrain analysis, both morphometric and genetic, (4) application in civil works, and (5) application in the areas of earthquake prediction and crustal movements. Although the success of radar surveys has not been widely publicized, they have been used as a prime reconnaissance data base for mineral exploration and land-use evaluation in areas where photography cannot be obtained.

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NASA NTRS1977

Study of a close-grid geodynamic measurement system

The Clogeos (Close-Grid Geodynamic Measurement System) concept, a complete range or range-rate measurement terminal installed in a satellite in a near-polar orbit with a network of relatively simple transponders or retro-reflectors on the ground at intervals of 0.1 to 10 km was reviewed. The distortion of the grid was measured in three dimensions to accuracies of + or - 1 cm with important applications to geodynamics, glaciology, and geodesy. User requirements are considered, and a typical grid, designed for earthquake prediction, was laid out along the San Andreas, Hayward, and Calaceras faults in southern California. The sensitivity of both range and range-rate measurements to small grid motions was determined by a simplified model. Variables in the model are satellite altitude and elevation angle plus grid displacements in latitude, and height.

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NASA NTRS1978

Implications of cavity, topographic and geologic influences on tilt and strain observations

Tilt and strain observations are importantly (pathologically at the 100%, typically at the few 10s% level) affected by cavities, topography, and geological inhomogenities; gravity observation are practically unaffected. The traditional earth tide observatory and abandoned mine or tunnel is a very poor place to measure body tides because of the complicated cavities, topography and geology. Instead, the ideal site for observing the body tide is in flat terrain with horizontally layered, mechanically homogeneous geology. Strain will be measured with long surface- or trench-mounted laser strain meters and tilt with long, surface- or trench mounted liquid levels, or with borehole tiltmeters. Horizontal geological discontinuities can produce large perturbations of the tilt and strain tides, and these perturbations, using the known homogeneous tidal strains and tilts, can be used in exploring local structure in favorable cases and, through possible time variations of tidal admittances, in predicting earthquakes.

Harrison, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Reaping the space investment

By 1999 operational space systems will be implemented routinely on a worldwide scale in many areas vital to human survival and life quality. Geosynchronous-based monitoring and observation will be extensively used. The Shuttle era will bring in the capability to allow monitoring and identifying pollution sources which fail to stay within required limits. Remotely sensed data over land masses will provide needed facts on renewable and nonrenewable earth resources. New instruments and techniques will have been developed to provide geologists with clues to the declining number of deposits of fuels and minerals. Also, practical methods for predicting earthquakes will have been elaborated by 1999. Communications will see implementation of many of the technological goals of 1978.

Calio, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1979

System for near real-time crustal deformation monitoring

A system is described for use in detecting earth crustal deformation using an RF interferometer technique for such purposes as earthquake predictive research and eventual operational predictions. A lunar based RF transmission or transmissions from earth orbiting satellites are received at two locations on Earth, and a precise time dependent phase measurement is made of the RF signal as received at the two locations to determine two or three spatial parameters of the antenna relative positions. The received data are precisely time tagged and land-line routed to a central station for real-time phase comparison and analysis. By monitoring the antenna relative positions over an extended period of months or years, crustal deformation of the Earth can be detected.

Macdoran, P. F.↗
NASA NTRS1979

NASA plan for international crustal dynamics studies

The international activities being planned as part of the NASA geodynamics program are described. Methods of studying the Earth's crustal movements and deformation characteristics are discussed. The significance of the eventual formalations of earthquake predictions methods is also discussed.

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NASA NTRS1984

Projection for Space Geodynamics, 1988-1998

Premises defining the technical and operational environment of the next decade are listed. Observational programs required to satisfy scientific objectives in the study of geopotential fields, global dynamics, tectonics, and regional tectonics/crustal hazards are defined. Capabilities and applications of the Geopotential Research Mission to be launched in the early 1990's are explored and the benefits of more detailed measurements of the Moon and planets are indicated. Earthquake prediction in the western part of the U.S. is discussed. The use of decimeter, centimeter, and millimeter systems for very long baseline interferometry, satellite laser ranging, and lunar ranging techniques are discussed. Geographic regions of particular interest are identified.

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NASA NTRS1990

The 1990 Western Pacific Geophysics meeting

The 1990 Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting was held in Kanazawa, Japan from 15-21 Aug. 1990. This was the first meeting of a new series of meetings for the American Geophysical Union, and it proved to be very successful in terms of the scientific program and attendance, which included over 1,000 participants. The intent of this meeting was an effort on the part of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) and several Japanese geophysical societies to gather individual Earth and space scientists at a major scientific meeting to focus on geophysical problems being studied in the western Pacific rim. The meeting was organized along the lines of a typical AGU annual meeting with some invited talks, many contributed talks, poster sessions, and with emphasis on presentations and informal discussions. The program committee consisted of scientists from both the U.S. and Japan. This meeting provided ample opportunities for U.S. and Japanese scientists to get to know each other and their works on a one-to-one basis. It was also a valuable opportunity for students studying geophysics to get together and interact with each other and with scientists from both the U.S. and Japan. There were 939 abstracts submitted to the conference and a total of 102 sessions designed as a result of the abstracts received. The topics of interest are as follows: space geodetic and observatory measurements for earthquake and tectonic studies; gravity, sea level, and vertical motion; variations in earth rotation and earth dynamics; sedimentary magnetism; global processes and precipitation; subsurface contaminant transport; U.S. Western Pacific Rim initiatives in hydrology; shelf and coastal circulation; tectonics, magmatism, and hydrothermal processes; earthquake prediction and hazard assessment; seismic wave propagation in realistic media; and dynamics and structure of plate boundaries and of the Earth's deep interior.

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NASA NTRS1994

Neural network wavelet technology: A frontier of automation

Neural networks are an outgrowth of interdisciplinary studies concerning the brain. These studies are guiding the field of Artificial Intelligence towards the, so-called, 6th Generation Computer. Enormous amounts of resources have been poured into R/D. Wavelet Transforms (WT) have replaced Fourier Transforms (FT) in Wideband Transient (WT) cases since the discovery of WT in 1985. The list of successful applications includes the following: earthquake prediction; radar identification; speech recognition; stock market forecasting; FBI finger print image compression; and telecommunication ISDN-data compression.

Szu, Harold↗
NASA NTRS2000

STS-99 / Endeavour SRTM Science Briefing and Applications from JSC

The primary objective of the STS-99 mission was to complete high resolution mapping of large sections of the Earth's surface using the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), a specially modified radar system. This radar system produced unrivaled 3-D images of the Earth's Surface. This videotape shows a science press briefing. The panel members are Michael Kobrick, the SRTM Project Scientist at JPL; Thomas Henning, SRTM Program Manager at the National Imagery and Mapping Agency; Diane Evans, the Director of the Earth Sciences Program at NASA; and Marian Werner, XSAR Project Manager for the DLR, Deutschen Zentrum fur Luft- und Raumfahrt, Germany's National Aerospace Research Center. Michael Kobrick explained the mechanics of interferometric measurements of the Earth. He explained and demonstrated with a scale model the deployable mast's use. He also explained the importance of the attitude and orbit determination avionics. A brief animated video showing how four beams would give a 225 km wide swath of the Earth topography was viewed. Thomas Henning discussed some of the usage of the digital terrain elevation data for flood relief planning, cell phone station placement, military planning for command and control centers, and flight simulation. He explained that public access to the most precise data would be limited. Diane Evans described data usage in flood prediction, earthquake fault identification and archeology. Marian Werner described the German and Italian input to the project. The questions from the press concerned the time to process this data, and the reasons for the limited access to the more precise data.

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NASA NTRS2006

GPS Eye-in-the-Sky Software Takes Closer Look Below

At NASA, GPS is a vital resource for scientific research aimed at understanding and protecting Earth. The Agency employs the band of GPS satellites for such functions as mapping Earth s ionosphere and developing earthquake-prediction tools. Extending this worldly wisdom beyond Earth, NASA researchers are even discussing the possibility of developing global positioning satellites around Mars, in anticipation of future manned missions. Despite all of its terrestrial accomplishments, traditional GPS still has its limitations. The Space Agency is working to address these with many new advances, including a "Global Differential GPS" technology that instantaneously provides a position to within 4 inches horizontally and 8 inches vertically, anywhere on Earth. According to NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, no other related system provides the same combination of accuracy and coverage. Furthermore, traditional GPS cannot communicate beyond latitudes of 75deg. That means that most of Greenland and Antarctica cannot receive GPS signals. The Global Differential GPS technology approaches this area of the world using several different GPS signals. These signals overlap to compensate for the gaps in coverage. Now, scientists working in the extreme northernmost and southernmost areas of the world can have access to the same GPS technology that other scientists around the world rely on.

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