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DOE OSTI2023

MODELING A SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL CASK SEISMIC TEST

The US Department of Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) program is planning to conduct a series of full-scale shake table tests to simulate hypothetical earthquake conditions and record the response of surrogate spent nuclear fuel (SNF) assemblies in a canister dry storage system mockup. The shake table motions will represent a range of hypothetical earthquake conditions at hypothetical locations in the continental US to generally define the range of mechanical loads that SNF can be expected to experience during extended dry storage periods. The earthquake conditions will represent seismic hazards in the 2,000-to-20,000-year return period range. The test will use instrumented pressurized water reactor fuel assemblies with surrogate mass inside the fuel rods instead of radioactive fuel pellets. Dummy assemblies with similar mass and dimensions to actual fuel assemblies will occupy the rest of the fuel assembly locations in a SNF canister that holds 32 fuel assemblies. The canister will be located inside a mockup vertical concrete cask. Instrumentation will record the motion of the major components of the complex dynamic system, and strain gauges will be used to record the cladding strain at select locations. Preparations for the test require modeling predictions to identify the range of response of the system and to help select specific earthquake cases to be simulated on the shake table from a large set of potential cases. This paper describes the pretest nonlinear finite element modeling efforts that have been completed to date, including cask system level modeling and fuel assembly modeling in LS-DYNA. The cask system level models are critical for anticipating sliding or tipping of an unanchored cask during the test. The fuel assembly model is needed to estimate the range of cladding strain response and fuel assembly structural response to be expected during the test and cladding strain measurements will be key metrics for model validation and the development of modeling best practices after the test is concluded.

Klymyshyn, Nicholas A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Crustal Deformation and the Seismic Cycle across the Kodiak Islands, Alaska

The Kodiak Islands are located approximately 130 to 250 km from the Alaska-Aleutian Trench where the Pacific plate is underthrusting the North American plate at a rate of about 57 mm/yr. The southern extent of the 1964 Prince William Sound (${M-w}$ = 9.2) earthquake rupture occurred offshore and beneath the eastern portion of the Kodiak Islands. Here we report GPS results (1993-2001) from northern Kodiak Island that span the transition between the 1964 uplift region along the eastern coast and the region of coseismic subsidence further inland. The horizontal velocity vectors range from 22.9 $\pm$ 2.2 mm/yr at N26.3$\deg$W $\pm$ 2.5$\deg$, about 150 km from the trench, to 5.9 $\pm$ 1.3 mm/yr at N65.9$\deg$W $\pm$ 6.6$\deg$, about 190 km from the trench. Near the northeastern coast of Kodiak the velocity vector above the shallow, locked main thrust zone is between the orientation of PCFC-NOAM plate motion (N22$/deg$W) and the trench-normal (N3O$\deg$W). Further west, our geodetic results suggest the accumulation of shear strain that will be released eventually as left-lateral motion on upper plate faults such as the Kodiak Island fault. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the difference between the Pacific-North American plate motion and the orientation of the down going slab would lead to 4-8 mm/yr of left-lateral slip. Short-term geodetic uplift rates range from 2 - 14 mm/yr, with the maximum uplift located near the axis of maximum subsidence during the 1964 earthquake. We evaluated alternate interseismic models for Kodiak to test the importance of various mechanisms responsible for crustal deformation rates. These models are based on the plate interface slip history inferred from earlier modeling of coseismic and post-seismic geodetic results. The horizontal (trench perpendicular) and vertical deformation rates across Kodiak are consistent with a model that includes the viscoelastic response to : (1) a downgoing Pacific plate interface that is locked at shallow depths,(2) coseismic slip in the 1964 and (3) interseismic creep below the seismogenic zone. The change in orientation of the horizontal velocity vector occurs down-dip from the locked main thrust zone. In southern Kodiak, the coseismic slip in the 1964 earthquake was smaller than in the northern Kodiak region; yet, the horizontal, interseismic velocities as a function of distance from the trench are comparable to those in northern Kodiak. Based on the earthquake history prior to, and following the 1964 earthquake, we hypothesize that the plate interface in southern Kodiak slips in more frequent large earthquakes than in northern Kodiak.

Sauber, Jeanne↗

DOE OSTI2023

Earthquake Relocation in Rock Valley, NV Using Absolute and Differential Times

In this brief report we document algorithmic choices and updates to our code related to the earthquake relocation portion of our tomographic imaging algorithm. We show results of these improvements by relocating over 40,000 events located within 20-30 km of the Rock Valley Direct Comparison (RV/DC) site using both absolute and differential arrival times within the context of two different 3-D Earth models. Accurate hypocentral locations and Earth models are important to the ultimate goals of the RV/DC program, which will co-locate a chemical explosion with a shallow earthquake within Rock Valley, southern Nevada, to investigate differences between the source types and improve our analysis algorithms for both types (Snelson et al., 2022). Our improvements to our relocation algorithms comprise just one step toward achieving these goals

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Joint Inversion of Body Wave Arrival Times, Surface Wave Dispersion Data and Receiver Functions: Method and Application to South China

In this work, we have developed a new joint inversion method that incorporates body wave arrival times, surface wave dispersion and receiver functions to simultaneously update earthquake locations and constrain three-dimensional P-wave (Vp) and S-wave velocity (Vs) models. Due to complementary sensitivities of the three types of data, the proposed joint inversion algorithm can reduce the intrinsic non-uniqueness of inversions using fewer types of data and better determine smooth velocity variations and velocity discontinuities. Synthetic tests demonstrate the advantages of this new joint inversion algorithm in resolving velocity structures, especially in constraining velocity gradients across the Moho interface. We have applied the proposed joint inversion algorithm to image the lithosphere velocity structure of south China. The inverted Vp and Vs models fit body wave arrival times, surface wave dispersion and receiver functions well. We further analyzed the distribution of Vs gradients across the Moho interface in detail, which helps us better understand tectonics in south China.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

ANN-based ground motion model for Turkey using stochastic simulation of earthquakes

SUMMARY Turkey is characterized by a high level of seismic activity attributed to its complex tectonic structure. The country has a dense network to record earthquake ground motions; however, to study previous earthquakes and to account for potential future ones, ground motion simulations are required. Ground motion simulation techniques offer an alternative means of generating region-specific time-series data for locations with limited seismic networks or regions with seismic data gaps, facilitating the study of potential catastrophic earthquakes. In this research, a local ground motion model (GMM) for Turkey is developed using region-specific simulated records, thus constructing a homogeneous data set. The simulations employ the stochastic finite-fault approach and utilize validated input-model parameters in distinct regions, namely Afyon, Erzincan, Duzce, Istanbul and Van. To overcome the limitations of linear regression-based models, artificial neural network is used to establish the form of equations and coefficients. The predictive input parameters encompass fault mechanism (FM), focal depth (FD), moment magnitude (Mw), Joyner and Boore distance (RJB) and average shear wave velocity in the top 30 m (Vs30). The data set comprises 7359 records with Mw ranging between 5.0 and 7.5 and RJB ranging from 0 to 272 km. The results are presented in terms of spectral ordinates within the period range of 0.03–2.0 s, as well as peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity. The quantification of the GMM uncertainty is achieved through the analysis of residuals, enabling insights into inter- and intra-event uncertainties. The simulation results and the effectiveness of the model are verified by comparing the predicted values of ground motion parameters with the observed values recorded during previous events in the region. The results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed model in simulating physical phenomena.

Karimzadeh, Shaghayegh (ORCID:0000000337531676)↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Nonergodic Ground-Motion Model for the San Francisco Bay Area for Small-Magnitude Earthquakes

ABSTRACT Recently, generative models have become a computationally efficient alternative to physics-based numerical simulations of ground motions. Neural networks can learn from existing ground-motion data to generate unobserved ground-motion data at new source and site locations. A key challenge with generative models is ensuring that predicted ground motions remain within a physically realistic range. For this purpose, we developed an empirical, nonergodic ground-motion model (GMM) for small-magnitude earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area based on about 5000 recordings per component for Mw ≤ 4 earthquakes. The nonergodic GMM predicts spatially varying median source, site, and path effects for both the Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) and the Fourier phase derivative (a proxy for duration), as well as the corresponding epistemic uncertainty for each term. For FAS, our model shows above-average source and site effects in the western part of the region and below-average effects in the eastern part, with regional effects exhibiting larger spatial correlation lengths with increasing frequency. For duration, the source term is negligible for small-magnitude earthquakes, and the site term leads to site-specific variations up to 5 s. Path effects for FAS and duration depend on the source–site pair and are extrapolated spatially using recent methods for path-effect modeling. The aleatory variability of the within-site within-path residuals is similar to the variability found in previous studies for other regions. The nonergodic model provides two key contributions: first, median adjustment terms that are transferable to larger magnitude earthquakes, further reducing aleatory variability in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis; second, region-specific criteria for validating machine learning-based ground-motion generators to evaluate whether synthetic ground motions exhibit physically realistic source, site, and path effects.

Lacour, Maxime↗

DOE OSTI2022

Toward improved urban earthquake monitoring through deep-learning-based noise suppression

Earthquake monitoring in urban settings is essential but challenging, due to the strong anthropogenic noise inherent to urban seismic recordings. Here, we develop a deep-learning-based denoising algorithm, UrbanDenoiser, to filter out urban seismological noise. UrbanDenoiser strongly suppresses noise relative to the signals, because it was trained using waveform datasets containing rich noise sources from the urban Long Beach dense array and high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) earthquake signals from the rural San Jacinto dense array. Application to the dense array data and an earthquake sequence in an urban area shows that UrbanDenoiser can increase signal quality and recover signals at an SNR level down to ~0 dB. Earthquake location using our denoised Long Beach data does not support the presence of mantle seismicity beneath Los Angeles but suggests a fault model featuring shallow creep, intermediate locking, and localized stress concentration at the base of the seismogenic zone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improved Earthquake Source Parameters with 3D Wavespeed Models in California and Nevada

Seismic tomography harnesses earthquake data to explore the inaccessible structure of the Earth. Adjoint waveform tomography (AWT), a method of seismic tomography, updates the tomographic model by optimizing the fit between observed earthquake data and synthetic waveforms. The synthetic data are calculated by solving the wave equation through a given 3D model. An important requirement to calculating synthetics is the source information (location, centroid time, depth, and moment tensor). Errors in source information affect the quality of the synthetics produced, which in turn can limit how structure can be inferred in the AWT workflow. Here, to test the effect of updating source information, we used MTTime (Chiang, 2020), a time-domain full-waveform moment tensor inversion code, to calculate the moment tensors and depths of 118 earthquakes that occurred in California and Nevada over a 20-yr period. We calculated 3D Green’s functions using a 3D seismic wavespeed model of California and Nevada (Doody et al., 2023b). We show that the inverted solutions provide better waveform fits than the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog and increase usable, well-correlated data by up to 7%. Therefore, we argue that recalculating source parameters should be considered in AWT workflows, particularly for smaller magnitude events (⁠M w > 5.0).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Rock Valley Direct Comparison Relocation Working Group Location Results and Recommendations

Work accomplished: Collected and compared historic data for the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence; Compared preliminary and prior location work from different location algorithms, phase pick sets, station constellations, and velocity models; Selected a common set of stations that could be used across all location methods for consistency; Reviewed 8 different sets of phase picks and converged on a single, reviewed set of picks for all common stations; Evaluated four pre-existing regional velocity models and incorporated new and preliminary results for five new velocity models that provide information on the very shallow (< 2km) structure near station RTPP; Compared location results from different methods while using the common sets of picks, stations, and velocity models

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1998

Plate Motions, Regional Deformation, and Time-Variation of Plate Motions

The significant results obtained with support of this grant include the following: (1) Using VLBI data in combination with other geodetical, geophysical, and geological data to bound the present rotation of the Colorado Plateau, and to evaluate to its implications for the kinematics and seismogenic potential of the western half of the conterminous U.S. (2) Determining realistic estimates of uncertainties for VLBI data and then applying the data and uncertainties to obtain an upper bound on the integral of deformation within the "stable interior" of the North American and other plates and thus to place an upper bound on the seismogenic potential within these regions. (3) Combining VLBI data with other geodetic, geophysical, and geologic data to estimate the motion of coastal California in a frame of reference attached to the Sierra Nevada-Great Valley microplate. This analysis has provided new insights into the kinematic boundary conditions that may control or at least strongly influence the locations of asperities that rupture in great earthquakes along the San Andreas transform system. (4) Determining a global tectonic model from VLBI geodetic data that combines the estimation of plate angular velocities with individual site linear velocities where tectonically appropriate. and (5) Investigation of the some of the outstanding problems defined by the work leading to global plate motion model NUVEL-1. These problems, such as the motion between the Pacific and North American plates and between west Africa and east Africa, are focused on regions where the seismogenic potential may be greater than implied by published plate tectonic models.

Gordon, R. G.↗

DOE OSTI2022

DeepShake: Shaking Intensity Prediction Using Deep Spatiotemporal RNNs for Earthquake Early Warning

Abstract We propose a deep spatiotemporal recurrent neural network, DeepShake, to project future shaking intensity directly from current ground-motion observations. DeepShake is a network-based forecasting model, able to predict future shaking intensity at all stations within a network given previously measured ground shaking. The model is not given any a priori knowledge of station locations; instead, it learns wave propagation amplitudes and delays solely from training data. We developed DeepShake with the 35,679 earthquakes from the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence. Tasked with alerting for modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) IV+ shaking on 3568 validation earthquakes at least 5 s in advance, DeepShake achieves an equal error rate of 11.4%. For the Mw 7.1 earthquake that hit Ridgecrest on 5 July 2019, DeepShake was able to provide targeted alerts to all stations inside the network 5 s prior to the arrival of MMI IV+ waveforms. DeepShake demonstrates that deep spatiotemporal neural networks can effectively provide one-step earthquake early warning with reasonable accuracy and latency.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

NASA NTRS2022

Cascading Rupture of a Megathrust

Understanding variability in the size and location of large earthquakes along subduction margins is crucial for evaluating seismic and tsunami hazards. We present a coseismic slip model for the 2021 M8.2 Chignik earthquake and investigate the relationship of this earthquake to previous major events in the Alaska Peninsula region and to interseismic coupling. Stress changes from the 2020 M7.8 Simeonof event triggered the Chignik event, and together, the earthquakes partially filled an unruptured section along a 3000-km subduction margin that has experienced a series of ruptures along almost its entire length over the past century. Variations in coupling and structural characteristics may make the region more prone to nucleating M7 to M8 events rather than larger M > 8.5 earthquakes. Stress changes and rupture areas suggest that the two recent earthquakes may be part of an 80-year-long rupture cascade and may have advanced seismic hazard in the region.

Julie L. Elliott↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the Vertical Response of an Aeroseismometer Balloon System

Aeroseismometery is a novel, cutting edge capability that involves balloon based systems for detecting and geolocating sources of infrasound. The incident infrasound from a range of sources such as volcanos, earthquakes, explosions, supersonic aircraft impinges upon the balloon system causing it to respond dynamically. The dynamic response is post-processed to locate the infrasound source. This report documents the derivation of an analytical model that predicts the balloon dynamics. Governing equations for the system are derived as well as a transfer function relating the infrasound signal to the net force on the balloon components. Experimental measurements of the infrasound signals are convolved with the transfer function and the governing equations numerically time integrated to obtain predictions of the displacement, velocity and acceleration of the balloon system. The predictions are compared to the experimental measurements with good agreement observed. The derivation focuses only on the vertical dynamics of the balloon system. Future work will develop governing equations for the swinging response of the balloon to the incident infrasound.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Observations and seismoacoustic simulations of earthquake-generated infrasound waves in non-epicentral regions

We analysed infrasound waves associated with the Gyeongju earthquake (ML 5.8) that occurred on 2016 September 12, in the southeastern Korean Peninsula. For infrasound wave detection, the Progressive Multichannel Correlation method was applied to the infrasound data set recorded at seven arrays operating in South Korea at epicentral distances ranging from 178 to 472 km. Based on the back-projection method constrained by array-dependent celerity and azimuth deviation models, the source regions were identified in both the epicentral and non-epicentral regions. Remarkably, the non-epicentral secondary sources of this earthquake were located in regions with shallow water depths: (i) the western coastal area in the Yellow Sea and (ii) the shallow ocean basin and bank in the East Sea. The location results obtained from the earthquake could be corroborated through its foreshock (ML 5.1), yielding location results consistent with those of the main shock. The generation of infrasound waves over shallow water depths was fortuitously validated by direct recordings of dominant single-frequency (~0.3 Hz) infrasound waves at close range via temporary sensors near the ocean basin and bank. We interpreted that low-frequency infrasound signals could be generated from interactions among the ocean floor, shallow seawater and atmosphere. We performed numerical simulations of seismoacoustic fields to predict ground motions on the seafloor and acoustic transmission efficiency between the water and air interface. The simulations quantified the energy transfer through different media and clarified our observational results. We found that because this solid Earth‒water‒atmosphere coupled air wave has a relatively low frequency (~0.3 Hz), it can survive propagation over long distances compared with high-frequency infrasound waves generated in inland and mountain regions. In this study, we extend our understanding of water‒atmosphere coupling and the monitoring framework for earthquake-associated non-epicentral infrasound waves, encompassing not only inland ground shaking but also shallow sea regions located far from the epicentre.

Earthquake monitoring and test-ban treaty verifica↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pretest Modeling A Spent Nuclear Fuel Seismic Shake Test

The U.S. Department of Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) program is planning to conduct a series of full-scale shake table tests to simulate hypothetical earthquake conditions and record the response of surrogate spent nuclear fuel (SNF) assemblies in a dry canister storage system mockup. The shake table motions will represent a range of hypothetical earthquake conditions at hypothetical locations in the continental U.S. to generally define the range of mechanical loads that SNF can be expected to experience during extended dry storage periods. This paper describes the pretest predictions made with LS-DYNA models of the mockup storage systems. The test will use two dry storage system configurations, a mockup vertical concrete cask (VCC) and a mockup horizontal storage module (HSM). The test will use a production-quality canister and basket. Within the canister will be four instrumented fuel assemblies with fuel rods containing surrogate mass and 28 instrumented dummy assemblies that are intended to match the mass and outer dimension of a fuel assembly. The finite element models include models of the VCC and HSM on the shake table to calculate the system level dynamic responses and separate single fuel assembly models to calculate stress and strain in fuel assembly components. Both types of models include nonlinear behavior like rod-to-rod contact and the ability for VCC’s to rock and slide. This paper presents the expected response of the VCC, HSM, and fuel assemblies to the shake table testing that is planned to start in April of 2024. The earthquake conditions represent seismic hazards in the 2,000-to-20,000-year return period range. The test data is expected to confirm the expectation that fuel rod cladding will remain intact, fuel assembly structural components like guide tubes will remain intact, and no significant VCC sliding or tipping will occur in the range of conditions to be tested with the shake table.

Klymyshyn, Nicholas A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Validation of Fault Displacements from Dynamic Rupture Simulations against the Observations from the 1992 Landers Earthquake

ABSTRACT Coseismic fault displacements in large earthquakes have caused significant damage to structures and lifelines on and near fault lines. Coseismic displacements represent a real threat, especially to distributed infrastructure systems. For infrastructure systems that can not avoid active faults, engineering displacement demands are defined using probabilistic fault-displacement hazard analyses (PFDHA). However, PFDHA models are sparse and poorly constrained partly due to the scarcity of detailed fault-displacement observations. Advancements in dynamic rupture simulation methods make them an attractive approach to address this important issue. Because fault displacements can be simulated for various geologic conditions as constrained by current knowledge about earthquake processes, they can be used to supplement the observation datasets. In addition to providing on-fault displacements, when used with appropriate constitutive models for the bulk medium, they can capture off-fault distributed inelastic deformations as well. For viable extrapolation, simulations must first be validated against data. In this article, we summarize the calibration and validation of the dynamic rupture model against the observations of the well-documented 1992 Landers earthquake. We defined a preferred model that reproduces several first-order fault-displacement metrics such as the on-fault partition of the total displacement, the mean fault-zone width, and the location of the peak displacement. Simulated ground motions consistent with the observations ensure that all physics important to modeling have been properly parameterized. For the extrapolation, we generated a suite of dynamic rupture models to quantify expected fault-displacement metrics, their intercorrelations, and magnitude dependencies, which are in part supported by the Landers and other recent earthquakes. Our validation and extrapolation exercise paves the way for using dynamic rupture modeling to quantitatively address fault-displacement hazard on a broader scale. The results are promising and are expected to be useful to inform PFDHA model development.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Compilation of a Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog and Relocations in the Caucasus Region

Instrumental seismic monitoring has a long history in the Caucasus and started in 1899 when the first seismograph was installed in Tbilisi, Georgia. Much of the analog paper records from this time period are preserved in the Tbilisi archives because Georgia served as the regional data center. In the 1990s, due to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the political turmoil in the region, the analog networks and the communication between the newly formed national networks deteriorated. In Georgia, for the next 13 yr, the seismic network coverage was poor until the 2002 Tbilisi earthquake. Following this earthquake, the first permanent digital seismic station in Georgia was established in Tbilisi in 2003. The digital era progressively improved the ability to collect and archive data and today more than a hundred broadband seismic stations (including temporary arrays) are operating in the southern Caucasus. Until recently, the region lacked a coordinated effort to catalog all analog and digital era data collected by different countries into a single repository. As a result of collaboration between Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the Ilia State University, and the Republican Seismic Survey Center of Azerbaijan, a comprehensive earthquake catalog was compiled for the Caucasus and neighboring areas as part of a broader probabilistic seismic hazard assessment project. Here this project digitized Soviet-era paper bulletins, compiled a unified earthquake catalog from regional bulletins, developed 1D reference velocity model, and used it to relocate the events. The final catalog contains 16,963 events with magnitudes 3.7 and above, bringing together all the available data sets in the Caucasus region from 1900 to 2015, significantly improving locations, and generating the most complete earthquake catalog in the region, temporally and geographically.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2019

Modeling the near-field ionospheric disturbances during earthquakes

We present the latest development of the Wave Perturbation-Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (WP-GITM), a threedimensional physics-based numerical model for seismic/tsunami-ionosphere coupling via atmospheric acoustic-gravity waves. WP-GITM was previously applied to simulate the ionospheric perturbations resulted from the epicentral crustal movement by assuming spherical acoustic-gravity waves originated from a point source, which was specified by the seismic measurement at a single location nearby the epicenter. In this work, we extend WP-GITM to include the effects of Rayleigh surface waves and adapt WP-GITM to utilize seismic measurements from more than one location in the attempt to capture the radiation pattern of the seismic source. We apply the new WP-GITM to model the near-field co-seismic ionospheric perturbations during the 16 September 2015 Illapel earthquake. The comparison between the simulated ionospheric total electron content perturbations and the GPS observations shows promising results.

Ravanelli, Michela↗