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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Earthquake Magnitude With DAS: A Transferable Data–Based Scaling Relation

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is a promising technique to improve the rapid detection and characterization of earthquakes. Previous DAS studies mainly focus on the phase information but less on the amplitude information. In this study, we compile earthquake data from two DAS arrays in California, USA, and one submarine array in Sanriku, Japan. We develop a data-driven method to obtain the first scaling relation between DAS amplitude and earthquake magnitude. Our results reveal that the earthquake amplitudes recorded by DAS in different regions follow a similar scaling relation. The scaling relation can provide a rapid earthquake magnitude estimation and effectively avoid uncertainties caused by the conversion to ground motions. Our results show that the scaling relation appears transferable to new regions with calibrations. The scaling relation highlights the great potential of DAS in earthquake source characterization and early warning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Project Lifetime Approach to the Management of Induced Seismicity Risk at Geologic Carbon Storage Sites

The geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is one method that can help reduce atmospheric CO 2 by sequestering it into the subsurface. Large-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage, however, may be accompanied by induced seismicity. We present a project lifetime approach to address the induced seismicity risk at these geologic storage sites. This approach encompasses both technical and nontechnical stakeholder issues related to induced seismicity and spans the time period from the initial consideration phase to postclosure. These recommendations are envisioned to serve as general guidelines, setting expectations for operators, regulators, and the public. They contain a set of seven actionable focus areas, the purpose of which are to deal proactively with induced seismicity issues. Although each geologic carbon storage site will be unique and will require a custom approach, these general best practice recommendations can be used as a starting point to any site-specific plan for how to systematically evaluate, communicate about, and mitigate induced seismicity at a particular reservoir.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Instantaneous tracking of earthquake growth with elastogravity signals

Rapid and reliable estimation of large earthquake magnitude (above 8) is key to mitigating the risks associated with strong shaking and tsunamis. Standard early warning systems based on seismic waves fail to rapidly estimate the size of such large earthquakes. Geodesy-based approaches provide better estimations, but are also subject to large uncertainties and latency associated with the slowness of seismic waves. Recently discovered speed-of-light prompt elastogravity signals (PEGS) have raised hopes that these limitations may be overcome, but have not been tested for operational early warning. Here we show that PEGS can be used in real time to track earthquake growth instantaneously after the event reaches a certain magnitude. We develop a deep learning model that leverages the information carried by PEGS recorded by regional broadband seismometers in Japan before the arrival of seismic waves. After training on a database of synthetic waveforms augmented with empirical noise, we show that the algorithm can instantaneously track an earthquake source time function on real data. Our model unlocks ‘true real-time’ access to the rupture evolution of large earthquakes using a portion of seismograms that is routinely treated as noise, and can be immediately transformative for tsunami early warning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Goal-oriented real-time Bayesian inference for linear autonomous dynamical systems with application to digital twins for tsunami early warning

We present a goal-oriented framework for constructing digital twins with the following properties: (1) they employ discretizations of high-fidelity partial differential equation (PDE) models governed by autonomous dynamical systems, leading to large-scale forward problems; (2) they solve a linear inverse problem to assimilate observational data to infer uncertain model components followed by a forward prediction of the evolving dynamics; and (3) the entire end-to-end, data-to-inference-to-prediction computation is carried out without approximation and in real time through a Bayesian framework that rigorously accounts for uncertainties. Several challenges must be overcome to realize this framework, including the large scale of the forward problem, the high dimensionality of the parameter space, and for a class of problems including those we target, the slow decay of the singular values of the parameter-to-observable map. Here we introduce a methodology to overcome these challenges by exploiting the autonomous structure of the forward model to decompose the solution of the inverse problem into a one-time-only offline phase in which the PDE model is solved a limited number of times (equal to the number of sensors), and an online phase that maps well onto GPUs and computes the parameter inference and prediction of quantities of interest in real time, given observational data. Our ultimate goal is to apply this framework to construct digital twins for subduction zones, including Cascadia, to provide early warning for tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes. To this end, we demonstrate how our methodology can be used to employ seafloor pressure observations, along with the coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer the earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion (discretized with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 9 ) parameters) and forward predict the tsunami propagation. We present results of an end-to-end inference, prediction, and uncertainty quantification for a representative test problem with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 8 ) inversion parameters for which goal-oriented Bayesian inference is accomplished exactly and in real time, that is, in a matter of seconds.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Next-generation geospatial-temporal information technologies for disaster management

Traditional geographic information systems (GIS) have been disrupted by the emergence of Big Data in the form of geo-coded raster, vector, and time-series Internet-of-Things data. This article discusses the application of new scalable technologies that go far beyond relational databases and file-based storage on spinning disk or tape to incorporate both storage and processing data in the same platform. The roles of the Apache Hadoop Distributed File Systems and NoSQL key-value stores such as the Apache Hbase are discussed, along with indexing schemes that optimally support geospatial-temporal use. Here, we highlight how this new approach can rapidly search multiple GIS data layers to obtain insights in the context of early warning, impact evaluation, response, and recovery to earthquake and wildfire disasters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time Bayesian Inference at Extreme Scale: A Digital Twin for Tsunami Early Warning Applied to the Cascadia Subduction Zone

We present a Bayesian inversion-based digital twin that employs acoustic pressure data from seafloor sensors, along with 3D coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion in real time and forecast tsunami propagation toward coastlines for early warning with quantified uncertainties. Our target is the Cascadia subduction zone, with one billion parameters. Computing the posterior mean alone would require 50 years on a 512 GPU machine. Instead, exploiting the shift invariance of the parameter-to-observable map and devising novel parallel algorithms, we induce a fast offline–online decomposition. The offline component requires just one adjoint wave propagation per sensor; using MFEM, we scale this part of the computation to the full El Capitan system (43,520 GPUs) with 92% weak parallel efficiency. Moreover, given real-time data, the online component exactly solves the Bayesian inverse and forecasting problems in 0.2 seconds on a modest GPU system, a ten-billion-fold speedup.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2012

Multi-Parameter Observation and Detection of Pre-Earthquake Signals in Seismically Active Areas

The recent large earthquakes (M9.0 Tohoku, 03/2011; M7.0 Haiti, 01/2010; M6.7 L Aquila, 04/2008; and M7.9 Wenchuan 05/2008) have renewed interest in pre-anomalous seismic signals associated with them. Recent workshops (DEMETER 2006, 2011 and VESTO 2009 ) have shown that there were precursory atmospheric /ionospheric signals observed in space prior to these events. Our initial results indicate that no single pre-earthquake observation (seismic, magnetic field, electric field, thermal infrared [TIR], or GPS/TEC) can provide a consistent and successful global scale early warning. This is most likely due to complexity and chaotic nature of earthquakes and the limitation in existing ground (temporal/spatial) and global satellite observations. In this study we analyze preseismic temporal and spatial variations (gas/radon counting rate, atmospheric temperature and humidity change, long-wave radiation transitions and ionospheric electron density/plasma variations) which we propose occur before the onset of major earthquakes:. We propose an Integrated Space -- Terrestrial Framework (ISTF), as a different approach for revealing pre-earthquake phenomena in seismically active areas. ISTF is a sensor web of a coordinated observation infrastructure employing multiple sensors that are distributed on one or more platforms; data from satellite sensors (Terra, Aqua, POES, DEMETER and others) and ground observations, e.g., Global Positioning System, Total Electron Content (GPS/TEC). As a theoretical guide we use the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model to explain the generation of multiple earthquake precursors. Using our methodology, we evaluated retrospectively the signals preceding the most devastated earthquakes during 2005-2011. We observed a correlation between both atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies preceding most of these earthquakes. The second phase of our validation include systematic retrospective analysis for more than 100 major earthquakes (M>5.9) in Taiwan and Japan. We have found anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives. Calculated false alarm ratio for the for the same month over the entire period of analysis (2003-2009) is less than 10% and was d as the earthquakes. The commonalities in detecting atmospheric/ionospheric anomalies show that they may exist over both land and sea in regions of maximum stress (i.e., along plate boundaries) Our results indicate that the ISTF model could provide a capability to observe pre-earthquake atmospheric/ionospheric signals by combining this information into a common framework.

Ouzounov, D.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Coherent tilt signals observed in the Shumagin seismic gap Detection of time-dependent subduction at depth?

Repeated surveys of short level lines in the Shumagin Islands, Alaska, reveal coherent tilt signals associated with subduction of the Pacific plate beneath the North American plate in the Shumagin seismic gap. Ten years of steady tilt down toward the trench is interrupted during 1978-1980 by a rapid episode of reverse tilt. The 'normal' tilt represents surface deformation as subduction occurs, with the plate boundary locked to at least 60 km depth. Using all available tilt, sea level, and seismic data, the tilt reversal is interpreted as due to an episodic reverse slip of about 80 cm magnitude on the plate boundary between about 70 km and 20 km depth, downdip from the main seismogenic zone, which remains locked. This event causes an increase of stress on the locked main thrust zone. It is speculated that such events may be a regular process at subduction zones, that great plate boundary earthquakes may be more common during their occurrence, and that their onset may be detectable early enough to give warning of an increase in probability for the occurrence of a great earthquake.

Beavan, J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Experimental Setup for Mechanical Vibration Analysis Using VLC

This study explores the potential applications across various domains, including earthquake detection and warning systems, where the system’s sensitivity to ground vibrations can contribute to early seismic event detection. Additionally, the study paves the way of developing applications of VLC/T in mechanical vibration and stability analysis of engines and platforms, offering insights into structural integrity and performance optimization. These multifaceted applications underscore the adaptability and potential of VLC/T systems in diverse fields, heralding advancements in sensing, communication, and security technologies. To achieve this, in this study, Peak to Average Power Ratio (PAPR) is proposed to represent the impact of mechanical shocks and vibrations generated by several weights dropped onto the platform with which the receiver is fixed. Even though non-contact measurement methodology is preferred for various reasons, the proposed measurement campaign obtains the data in contact form; however, the system and signal model proposed in this study could easily be extended into non-contact form. Considering the fact that the proposed measurement campaign employs off-the-shelf products, it is cost-effective and very scalable.

Yilmaz, Ahmet Mucahit↗
NASA NTRS2023

Tsunami Early-Warning CubeSat Design Reference Mission (DRM)

Global constellation for near real-time detection, characterization, and warning of dangerous tsunami; detection and evaluation of large earthquakes and volcanic eruptions; and study and continuous monitoring of the ionosphere and climate change.

Tsunami, GNSS-R, CubeSats, Ionosphere, Climate Cha↗
NASA NTRS2021

Capturing the Footprints of Ground Motion in the Spatial Distribution of Rainfall-Induced Landslides

The coupled effect of earthquakes and rainfall is rarely investigated in landslide susceptibility assessments although it could be crucial to predict landslide occurrences. This is even more critical in the context of early warning systems and especially in cases of extreme precipitation regimes in post-seismic conditions, where the rock masses are already damaged due to the ground shaking. Here, we investigate this concept by accounting for the legacy of seismic ground shaking in rainfall-induced landslide (RFIL) scenarios. We do this to identify whether ground shaking plays a role in the susceptibility to post-seismic rainfall-induced landslides and to identify whether this legacy effect persists through time. With this motivation, we use binary logistic regression and examine time series of landslides associated with four earthquakes occurred in Indonesia: 2012 Sulawesi (M(sub w) = 6.3), 2016 Reuleut (M(sub w) = 6.5), 2017 Kasiguncu (M(sub w) = 6.6) and 2018 Palu (M(sub w) = 7.5) earthquakes. The dataset includes one co-seismic and three post-seismic landslide inventories for each earthquake. We use the peak ground acceleration map of the last strongest earthquake in each case as a predisposing factor of landslides representing the effect of ground shaking. We observe that, at least for the study areas under consideration and in a probabilistic context, the earthquake legacy contributes to increase the post-seismic RFIL susceptibility. This positive contribution decays through time. Specifically, we observe that ground motion is a significant predisposing factor controlling the spatial distribution of RFIL in the post-seismic period 110 days after an earthquake. We also show that this effect dissipates within 3 years at most.

Landslides↗
NASA NTRS2007

Parallelization of the Coupled Earthquake Model

This Web-based tsunami simulation system allows users to remotely run a model on JPL s supercomputers for a given undersea earthquake. At the time of this reporting, predicting tsunamis on the Internet has never happened before. This new code directly couples the earthquake model and the ocean model on parallel computers and improves simulation speed. Seismometers can only detect information from earthquakes; they cannot detect whether or not a tsunami may occur as a result of the earthquake. When earthquake-tsunami models are coupled with the improved computational speed of modern, high-performance computers and constrained by remotely sensed data, they are able to provide early warnings for those coastal regions at risk. The software is capable of testing NASA s satellite observations of tsunamis. It has been successfully tested for several historical tsunamis, has passed all alpha and beta testing, and is well documented for users.

Block, Gary↗
NASA NTRS2004

Progress in Understanding the Pre-Earthquake Associated Events by Analyzing IR Satellite Data

We present latest result in understanding the potential relationship between tectonic stress, electro-chemical and thermodynamic processes in the Earths crust and atmosphere with an increase in IR flux as a potential signature of electromagnetic (EM) phenomena that are related to earthquake activity, either pre-, co- or post seismic. Thermal infra-red (TIR) surveys performed by the polar orbiting (NOAA/AVHRR MODIS) and geosynchronous weather satellites (GOES, METEOSAT) gave an indication of the appearance (from days to weeks before the event) of "anomalous" space-time TIR transients that are associated with the location (epicenter and local tectonic structures) and time of a number of major earthquakes with M>5 and focal depths less than 50km. We analyzed broad category of associated pre-earthquake events, which provided evidence for changes in surface temperature, surface latent heat flux, chlorophyll concentrations, soil moisture, brightness temperature, emissivity of surface, water vapour in the atmosphere prior to the earthquakes occurred in Algeria, India, Iran, Italy, Mexico and Japan. The cause of such anomalies has been mainly related to the change of near-surface thermal properties due to complex lithosphere-hydrosphere-atmospheric interactions. As final results we present examples from the most recent (2000-2004) worldwide strong earthquakes and the techniques used to capture the tracks of EM emission mid-IR anomalies and a methodology for practical future use of such phenomena in the early warning systems.

Ouzounov, Dimitar↗
NASA NTRS1973

Establishment, test and evaluation of a prototype volcano surveillance system

A volcano-surveillance system utilizing 23 multilevel earthquake counters and 6 biaxial borehole tiltmeters is being installed and tested on 15 volcanoes in 4 States and 4 foreign countries. The purpose of this system is to give early warning when apparently dormant volcanoes are becoming active. The data are relayed through the ERTS-Data Collection System to Menlo Park for analysis. Installation was completed in 1972 on the volcanoes St. Augustine and Iliamna in Alaska, Kilauea in Hawaii, Baker, Rainier and St. Helens in Washington, Lassen in California, and at a site near Reykjavik, Iceland. Installation continues and should be completed in April 1973 on the volcanoes Santiaguito, Fuego, Agua and Pacaya in Guatemala, Izalco in El Salvador and San Cristobal, Telica and Cerro Negro in Nicaragua.

Ward, P. L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tsunami Early Warning From Global Navigation Satellite System Data Using Convolutional Neural Networks

Abstract We investigate the potential of using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations to directly forecast full tsunami waveforms in real time. We train convolutional neural networks to use less than 9 min of GNSS data to forecast the full tsunami waveforms over 6 hr at select locations, and obtain accurate forecasts on a test data set. Our training and test data consists of synthetic earthquakes and associated GNSS data generated for the Cascadia Subduction Zone using the MudPy software, and corresponding tsunami waveforms in Puget Sound computed using GeoClaw. We use the same suite of synthetic earthquakes and waveforms as in earlier work where tsunami waveforms were used for forecasting, and provide a comparison. We also explore varying the number of GNSS stations, their locations, and their observation durations.

Rim, Donsub↗
NASA NTRS1974

A new method for monitoring global volcanic activity

The ERTS Data Collection System makes it feasible for the first time to monitor the level of activity at widely separated volcanoes and to relay these data rapidly to one central office for analysis. While prediction of specific eruptions is still an evasive goal, early warning of a reawakening of quiescent volcanoes is now a distinct possibility. A prototypical global volcano surveillance system was established under the ERTS program. Instruments were installed in cooperation with local scientists on 15 volcanoes in Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, California, Iceland, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. The sensors include 19 seismic event counters that count four different sizes of earthquakes and six biaxial borehole tiltmeters that measure ground tilt with a resolution of 1 microradian. Only seismic and tilt data are collected because these have been shown in the past to indicate most reliably the level of volcano activity at many different volcanoes. Furthermore, these parameters can be measured relatively easily with new instrumentation.

Ward, P. L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Seismic tomography of compressional wave velocity and attenuation structure for Makushin Volcano, Alaska

Located in the central portion of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone, Makushin Volcano is among the most active volcanoes in the United States and has been classified as a very high threat by the National Volcano Early Warning System based on its eruptive history and proximity to the City of Unalaska and international air routes. In 2015, five standalone seismic stations and three mini seismic arrays of 15 stations each were deployed on Unalaska Island to supplement the Alaska Volcano Observatory permanent seismic network. This temporary array was operational for one year. Taking advantage of the increased azimuthal coverage and the array's increased earthquake detection capability, we developed body-wave Vp and Vp/Vs seismic images of the velocity structure beneath the volcano. Our results show a complex structure with the upper 4 km of the crust. The shallow high-Vp features possibly delineate remnant magma pathways or conduits. Low-Vp regions are found east of the caldera at approximately 4–8 km depth. This is in agreement with previous seismic tomographic work and InSAR-based geodetic models, which had identified this region as a possible long-term source of magma. A three-dimensional compressional wave attenuation model complemented the velocity models. In general, we observe regions of corresponding low P-wave velocity and high attenuation east of the summit caldera between 5 and 7 km depth, supporting the presence of a melt-rich zone. The absolute Vp values (5.5–6.0 km/s) in this region are consistent with the presence of a magma body with a mafic signature. Here, we suggest that a triggering mechanism that involves mafic injections into a more evolved shallow magma chamber is representative of the current magmatic system below the volcano, similarly to what petrological studies have inferred for past eruptions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2010

What if Things Get Worse? Really Grand Challenges for Modeling and Simulation in a Risky and Complex World or Modeling and Simulation for the "Greater Good"?

Today Modeling and Simulation-- ---as an important practice or industry or area of expertise ----- is at a complex crossroad - a sort of cyber-highway--where these complexities meet-technical, economic, environmental, geopolitical and cultural. They may converge or collide. Let's not kid ourselves. It is all too much for anyone person or organization Malcolm Gladwell said it. "We have constructed a world in which the potential for high tech catastrophe is embedded in the fabric of everyday life." We are surrounded by problems that scream at us from our television, Internet and social networks along with billboards and protest signs. We face not just high tech catastrophes but, also, landslides, earthquakes, tornados, floods and hurricanes and large-scale criminality. Evil, war, famine and pestilence have not gone away. It is all too much to think about. My friend, George Peabody, who taught me everything I know about power said that addressing such issues requires that we constantly build our network, information resources and the credibility and visibility of our work. That is how we will build the power of simulation so it can change the world --even maybe, save it. We need all the help we can get and give one another because our human early warning systems appear to be out of kilter. We seem to have trouble imagining how small failings can continue to lead to catastrophic disaster. Think about O-rings and blowout preventers. One is reminded of the old nursery rhyme, "For want of a nail, a shoe was lost! for want of a shoe the horse was lost! for want of a rider the battle was lost and so the kingdom fell." Although the investigation will take more time for real answers, it is worrisome that a rig worker reported to the BBC that-- weeks before the explosion of Deep Ocean Horizon. -he identified a leak in the oil rig's safety equipment -the Control Pod of the blowout preventer which has giant shears designed to cut and seal off the well's main pipe. With both electronics and hydraulics, these are effectively the brains of the blowout preventer. No one fixed it, he alleges, they just shut it down and relied on the other control pod -an act deemed unacceptable by petroleum expert, Tad Patzek, at the University of Texas. The US Congress has identified numerous other problems with the blowout preventer, including design problems and unexpected modifications.

Fifrey, Priscilla↗