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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A unified ensemble soil moisture dataset across the continental United States

Abstract A unified ensemble soil moisture (SM) package has been developed over the Continental United States (CONUS). The data package includes 19 products from land surface models, remote sensing, reanalysis, and machine learning models. All datasets are unified to a 0.25-degree and monthly spatiotemporal resolution, providing a comprehensive view of surface SM dynamics. The statistical analysis of the datasets leverages the Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification to explore surface SM’s spatiotemporal variabilities. The extracted SM characteristics highlight distinct patterns, with the western CONUS showing larger coefficient of variation values and the eastern CONUS exhibiting higher SM values. Remote sensing datasets tend to be drier, while reanalysis products present wetter conditions. In-situ SM observations serve as the basis for wavelet power spectrum analyses to explain discrepancies in temporal scales across datasets facilitating daily SM records. This study provides a comprehensive soil moisture data package and an analysis framework that can be used for Earth system model evaluations and uncertainty quantification, quantifying drought impacts and land–atmosphere interactions and making recommendations for drought response planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

An Integrated Hydrological and Water Management Study of the Entire Nile River System - Lake Victoria to Nile Delta

The Nile basin River system spans 3 million km(exp 2) distributed over ten nations. The eight upstream riparian nations, Ethiopia, Eretria, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Congo, Tanzania and Kenya are the source of approximately 86% of the water inputs to the Nile, while the two downstream riparian countries Sudan and Egypt, presently rely on the river's flow for most of the their needs. Both climate and agriculture contribute to the complicated nature of Nile River management: precipitation in the headwaters regions of Ethiopia and Lake Victoria is variable on a seasonal and inter-annual basis, while demand for irrigation water in the arid downstream region is consistently high. The Nile is, perhaps, one of the most difficult trans-boundary water issue in the world, and this study would be the first initiative to combine NASA satellite observations with the hydrologic models study the overall water balance in a to comprehensive manner. The cornerstone application of NASA's Earth Science Research Results under this project are the NASA Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) and the USDA Atmosphere-land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model. These two complementary research results are methodologically independent methods for using NASA observations to support water resource analysis in data poor regions. Where an LDAS uses multiple sources of satellite data to inform prognostic simulations of hydrological process, ALEXI diagnoses evapotranspiration and water stress on the basis of thermal infrared satellite imagery. Specifically, this work integrates NASA Land Data Assimilation systems into the water management decision support systems that member countries of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD, located in Nairobi, Kenya) use in water resource analysis, agricultural planning, and acute drought response to support sustainable development of Nile Basin water resources. The project is motivated by the recognition that accurate, frequent, and spatially distributed estimates of the water balance are necessary for effective water management. This creates a challenge for watersheds that are large, include data poor regions, and/or span multiple nations. All of these descriptors apply to the Nile River basin, yet successful management of the Nile is critical for development and political stability in the region. For this reason, improved hydrological data to support cooperative water management in the Nile basin is a priority for USAID, the US State Department, the World Bank and other international organizations. In this project, the U.S. based research team is working with partners at RCMRD, Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), and their member national-level agencies to develop satellite-based land cover maps, satellite-derived evapotranspiration estimates (using the ALEXI algorithm), and NASA's Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) customized to match identified information needs. The cornerstone applied sciences product of the project is the development of a customized "Nile LDAS" that will produce optimal estimates of hydrological states and fluxes, as vetted against the in situ observations of NBI and RCMRD member organizations and independent satellite-derived hydrological estimates. Nile LDAS will be applied to improve the reliability of emerging Decision Support Systems in applications that include drought monitoring, reservoir management, and irrigation planning. The end-users such as RCMRD, NBI, Ethiopian and Kenya Meteorological and Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNet) will be the eventual benefactors of this work. There will be a capacity building process involving the above end-user organizations and transfer the models and the results for these organizations to execute for future use. The team has already initiated this study and the early results of first years' work are shown. The plan is to complete this work by late 2013.

Habib, Shahid↗
DOE OSTI2026

Expedited desalination permitting enables adaptive planning and water system cost reduction

Seawater desalination is a drought-proof water supply for coastal cities, but widespread development of desalination plants in the U.S. has been limited by both cost and the complexity of permitting processes designed to minimize environmental impact . This work estimates the value of accelerating the permitting timeline without changing environmental or social standards. On average, faster permitting reduces the frequency of desalination plant construction and operation, the overall costs of robust water system operation, the environmental impacts of drought-tolerant water supplies due to shorter duration of plant operation. Expedited permitting allows fundamental changes in how water infrastructure is deployed, facilitating a transition from anticipatory construction and continuous operation of seawater desalination capacity as a redundant drought buffer to just-in-time (i.e. adaptive) deployment of seawater desalination capacity when critical drought thresholds are crossed. We demonstrate the value of expedited desalination permitting in enabling adaptive planning and reducing water system costs using a simple case study in Santa Barbara, CA. We discuss additional forms of adaptive water infrastructure planning as enabled by faster permitting and address their challenges and opportunities. Lastly, we identify synergies between innovation in adaptive planning, innovation in expedited permitting practices, and innovation in water technology.

adaptive planning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas

Abstract. Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Engineering and technological advancements have enabled the development of complex, interconnected water supply systems that buffer societies from the impacts of drought, enabling growth and prosperity. However, increasing water demand from population growth and economic development, combined with more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change, poses significant challenges for governments in the 21st century. Improved understanding of the cascading multisectoral impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid in adaptive planning and highlight key processes in modeling drought impacts. The record drought spanning 2008 to 2015 in the Colorado Basin in the state of Texas, United States, serves as an outstanding illustration to assess multisectoral impacts and responses to severe, multi-year drought. The basin faces similar water security challenges to those across the western US, such as groundwater depletion and sustainability, resource competition between agriculture and growing urban populations, limited options for additional reservoir expansion, and the heightened risk of more severe and frequent droughts due to climate change. By analyzing rich, high-quality data sourced from nine different local, state, and federal sources, we demonstrate that characterizing regional multisector dynamics is crucial to predicting and understanding future vulnerability and possible approaches to reduce impacts to human and natural systems in the face of extreme drought conditions. This review reveals that, despite the severe hydrometeorological conditions of the drought, the region's advanced economy and existing water infrastructure effectively mitigated economic and societal impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Idaho Wildfires II: Assessing the Relationship Between Drought Indicators and Wildfire Risk to Enhance Hazard Modeling and Inform Mitigation Planning

The western United States has experienced twenty years of increased and prolonged drought which have exacerbated wildfire hazards. These jeopardize population centers through increased risks to ecosystem services, local economies, and livelihoods. The Idaho Office of Emergency Management, Water Resources, and Department of Lands are seeking methods to dynamically monitor these conditions and update models that inform hazard mitigation planning and resource allocation. Towards this, these agencies partnered with NASA DEVELOP to produce drought-enhanced wildfire hazard models. Part of a two-term project, the two teams revised the state’s static wildfire hazard model with refined data layers and remotely-sensed data to reflect dynamic ecosystem responses to drought conditions and wildfire potential. Our team distinguished between rangeland and forestland ecosystems, and investigated relationships between drought metrics and vegetation condition using TerrSet Earth Trends Modeler. This analysis determined that total precipitation at a 5-month lag interval (r 2 = 0.72) along with the Evaporative Stress Index (r 2 = 0.69); and precipitation at a 5-month interval (r 2 = 0.42) were important drivers in rangeland and forestland, respectively. These driver variables were incorporated into a temporally dynamic wildfire hazard map. Our team used linear regression to correlate hazard ratings with wildfire frequency. For the year 2020, neither the enhanced hazard model (p < 0.10, r 2 = 0.01) nor the state’s static model (p < 0.05, r 2 = 0.03) were strongly correlated with actual wildfire frequency as they expressed an inverse relationship between wildfire hazard and frequency. This suggests wildfire occurrence is complex and not necessarily driven by the variables used.

Wildfire↗
NASA NTRS1999

Regional Studies and Applications with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid Data Assimilation System

The variable resolution stretched grid (SG) version of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS) incorporating the GEOS SG-GCM, is used for regional analysis, forecast, and climate applications. The region of interest with enhanced horizontal resolution, mostly used in experiments, is a rectangle over the U.S. The SG-DAS is capable of reproducing regional mesoscale fields, patterns and diagnostics that are not produced by the medium uniform resolution run with the same amount of grid points as for the SG. The SG-DAS regional analyses and diagnostics are used for: validation of regional climate simulation experiments produced with the SG-GCM for the U.S. 1988 summer drought; and are planned to be used for atmospheric chemistry transport experiments. Also, a case study is conducted on a super-typhoon development in December 1997. The SG-DAS appears to be a viable candidate for a variety of regional studies and applications.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Grand Valley Ecological Forecasting II: Forecasting Trends in Pinyon-Juniper and Sagebrush Habitat Relative to Wildfire, Drought, Beetle Disturbance, and Treatment Impact for Management Planning

Disturbances and landcover change in pinyon-juniper and sagebrush ecosystems are exacerbated by environmental conditions such as variability in climate characteristics. Our DEVELOP team partnered with the National Park Service (NPS) in Colorado National Monument and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) in McInnis Canyons and Dominguez-Escalante National Conservation Areas to investigate disturbances to land cover. NPS partners were interested in identifying areas at risk of pinyon-juniper die-off or encroachment by invasive species. The BLM partners prioritized identifying areas suitable for fire reduction and prevention treatment. To address these concerns, we forecasted landcover change in the Grand Valley region of Colorado using NASA Earth observation data from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard Terra and Aqua. We collected and analyzed these data in conjunction with Term I of this project. We found that the primary drivers of forecasted landcover change in the study area were aspect and elevation. Our forecasted land cover maps, created using the Idrisi TerrSet Land Change Modeler, indicated that by 2040, ecosystems within partner management areas will likely see tree encroachment on shrublands. These maps addressed the needs of our partners by showing potential habitat suitability trends, which will inform management planning.

Bill Curtiss↗
NASA NTRS2022

Grand Valley Ecological Forecasting II: Forecasting Trends in Pinyon-Juniper and Sagebrush Habitat Relative to Wildfire, Drought, Beetle Disturbance, and Treatment Impact for Management Planning

Disturbances and landcover change in pinyon-juniper and sagebrush ecosystems are exacerbated by environmental conditions such as variability in climate characteristics. Our DEVELOP team partnered with the National Park Service (NPS) in Colorado National Monument and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM)in McInnis Canyons and Dominguez-Escalante National Conservation Areas to investigate disturbances to land cover. NPS partners were interested in identifying areas at risk of pinyon-juniper die-off or encroachment by invasive species. The BLM partners prioritized identifying areas suitable for fire reduction/prevention treatment. To address these concerns, we forecasted landcover change in the Grand Valley region of Colorado using NASA Earth observation data from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard Terra and Aqua. We collected and analyzed these data in conjunction with Term I of this project. We found that the primary drivers of forecasted landcover change in the study area were aspect and elevation. Our forecasted landcover change maps, created using the Idrisi TerrSet Land Change Modeler, addressed the needs of our partners by showing potential habitat suitability trends, which will inform management planning. Forecasted landcover maps indicated that by 2040, ecosystems within partner management areas will likely see tree encroachment on shrublands.

William Curtiss↗
NASA NTRS2021

DroughtCast: A Machine Learning Forecast of the United States Drought Monitor

Drought is one of the most ecologically and economically devastating natural phenomena affecting the United States, causing the U.S. economy billions of dollars in damage, and driving widespread degradation of ecosystem health. Many drought indices are implemented to monitor the current extent and status of drought so stakeholders such as farmers and local governments can appropriately respond. Methods toforecast drought conditions weeks to months in advance are less common but would provide a more effective early warning system to enhance drought response, mitigation, and adaptation planning. To resolve this issue, we introduce DroughtCast, a machine learning framework for forecasting the United States Drought Monitor (USDM). DroughtCast operates on the knowledge that recent anomalies in hydrology and meteorology drive future changes in drought conditions. We use simulated meteorology and satellite observed soil moisture as inputs into a recurrent neural network to accurately forecast the USDM between 1 and 12 weeks into the future. Our analysis shows that precipitation, soil moisture, and temperature are the most important input variables when forecasting future drought conditions. Additionally, a case study of the 2017 Northern Plains Flash Drought shows that DroughtCast was able to forecast a very extreme drought event up to 12 weeks before its onset. Given the favorable forecasting skill of the model, DroughtCast may provide a promising tool for land managers and local governments in preparing for and mitigating the effects of drought.

Machine Learning↗
NASA NTRS2015

4.4 Development of a 30-Year Soil Moisture Climatology for Situational Awareness and Public Health Applications

This paper provided a brief background on the work being done at NASA SPoRT and the CDC to create a soil moisture climatology over the CONUS at high spatial resolution, and to provide a valuable source of soil moisture information to the CDC for monitoring conditions that could favor the development of Valley Fever. The soil moisture climatology has multi-faceted applications for both the NOAA/NWS situational awareness in the areas of drought and flooding, and for the Public Health community. SPoRT plans to increase its interaction with the drought monitoring and Public Health communities by enhancing this testbed soil moisture anomaly product. This soil moisture climatology run will also serve as a foundation for upgrading the real-time (currently southeastern CONUS) SPoRT-LIS to a full CONUS domain based on LIS version 7 and incorporating real-time GVF data from the Suomi-NPP Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (Vargas et al. 2013) into LIS-Noah. The upgraded SPoRT-LIS run will serve as a testbed proof-of-concept of a higher-resolution NLDAS-2 modeling member. The climatology run will be extended to near real-time using the NLDAS-2 meteorological forcing from 2011 to present. The fixed 1981-2010 climatology shall provide the soil moisture "normals" for the production of real-time soil moisture anomalies. SPoRT also envisions a web-mapping type of service in which an end-user could put in a request for either an historical or real-time soil moisture anomaly graph for a specified county (as exemplified by Figure 2) and/or for local and regional maps of soil moisture proxy percentiles. Finally, SPoRT seeks to assimilate satellite soil moisture data from the current Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS; Blankenship et al. 2014) and the recently-launched NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP; Entekhabi et al. 2010) missions, using the EnKF capability within LIS. The 9-km combined active radar and passive microwave retrieval product from SMAP (Das et al. 2011) has the potential to provide valuable information about the near-surface soil moisture state for improving land surface modeling output.

land surface modeling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Drought and Fire Conditions, Trends, and Susceptibility to Inform State Mitigation Efforts and Bolster Monitoring Protocol in North Central Idaho

Escalating severity and frequency of drought and wildfire call for effective and cost-efficient mitigation planning and monitoring protocols. The Palouse ecoregion, an agricultural epicenter in North-central Idaho, is of particular concern as both drought and wildfire present substantial economic threats. The DEVELOP team implemented Earth observation data to assist the Idaho Office of Emergency Management, Idaho Department of Water Resources, and Idaho Department of Lands in updating the state’s Hazard Mitigation Plan by enhancing their drought and fire monitoring capabilities. The team utilized Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Aqua and Terra’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), along with ancillary datasets, to assess drought indicators and map hazard susceptibility. The team upgraded the state’s current fire hazard model by updating existing data layers and adding drought indicator data to support partners’ continued assessment of fire hazard conditions. The team observed Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) spikes during the highest fire occurrence and burned area years in the study period: 2015 and 2021. Models from dry, high fire occurrence and burned area year 2015 outperformed models from mesic, low fire occurrence and burned area year 2016. The increased understanding of drought conditions and fire susceptibility in this ecosystem will assist partners in improving land management practices.

Ford Freyberg↗
DOE OSTI2026

Watershed response of the Feather River Basin, California, United States of America to future climate changes

Increasing mean annual temperatures under climate change are expected to reduce seasonal snowpack, increase evapotranspiration (ET), and alter summer baseflow in headwater watersheds worldwide. Strong regional variability in hydrologic responses highlights the need for catchment-scale, physically based models to assess future flood risk and water availability. This study examines climate-driven changes in the hydrologic response of the Upper Feather River watershed in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California. Four priority climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are used to evaluate future hydrologic responses of the watershed. Hydrologic processes are simulated using an objectively calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model for a historical baseline (1986–2005) and a future period 2070–2099), driven by observed and projected precipitation and temperature. Results indicate a declining contribution of snowfall to annual precipitation, with peak snowfall and water yield shifting 1–3 months earlier. Long-term annual maximum flows are projected to increase considerably, whereas low-flow responses are mixed, with both increases and decreases projected by the end of the century. These findings highlight the need for adaptive watershed management to enhance flood protection, water storage, and drought resilience. Future water resource planning should also account for one-to-three-month shifts in peak water yield and surface runoff due to changes in snowmelt timing and a lower snowfall-to-rainfall ratio under climate change. The modeling framework and insights are transferable to other snow-dominated headwater watersheds experiencing climate-driven change.

Tigabu, T [UC Davis]↗
NASA NTRS2011

NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission Formulation

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission is one of the first Earth observation satellites being formulated by NASA in response to the 2007 National Research Council s Earth Science Decadal Survey [1]. SMAP s measurement objectives are high-resolution global measurements of near-surface soil moisture and its freeze-thaw state. These measurements would allow significantly improved estimates of water, energy and carbon transfers between the land and atmosphere. The soil moisture control of these fluxes is a key factor in the performance of atmospheric models used for weather forecasts and climate projections. Soil moisture measurements are also of great importance in assessing flooding and monitoring drought. Knowledge gained from SMAP s planned observations can help mitigate these natural hazards, resulting in potentially great economic and societal benefits. SMAP measurements would also yield high resolution spatial and temporal mapping of the frozen or thawed condition of the surface soil and vegetation. Observations of soil moisture and freeze/thaw timing over the boreal latitudes will contribute to reducing a major uncertainty in quantifying the global carbon balance and help resolve an apparent missing carbon sink over land. The SMAP mission would utilize an L-band radar and radiometer sharing a rotating 6-meter mesh reflector antenna (see Figure 1) [2]. The radar and radiometer instruments would be carried onboard a 3-axis stabilized spacecraft in a 680 km polar orbit with an 8-day repeating ground track. The instruments are planned to provide high-resolution and high-accuracy global maps of soil moisture at 10 km resolution and freeze/thaw at 3 km resolution, every two to three days (see Table 1 for a list of science data products). The mission is adopting a number of approaches to identify and mitigate potential terrestrial radio frequency interference (RFI). These approaches are being incorporated into the radiometer and radar flight hardware and ground processing designs.

Entekhabi, Dara↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-scale impacts of climate change on hydropower for long-term water-energy planning in the contiguous United States

Climate change impacts on watersheds can potentially exacerbate water scarcity issues where water serves multiple purposes including hydropower. The long-term management of water and energy resources is still mostly approached in a siloed manner at different basins or watersheds, failing to consider the potential impacts that may concurrently affect many regions at once. There is a need for a large-scale hydropower modeling framework that can examine climate impacts across adjoining river basins and balancing authorities (BAs) and provide a periodic assessment at regional to national scales. Expanding from our prior assessment only for the United States (US) federal hydropower plants, we enhance and extend two regional hydropower models to cover over 85% of the total hydropower nameplate capacity and present the first contiguous US-wide assessment of future hydropower production under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6’s high-end Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 emission scenario using an uncertainty-aware multi-model ensemble approach. We present regional hydropower projections, using both BA regions and US Hydrologic Subregions (HUC4s), to consistently inform the energy and water communities for two future periods—the near-term (2020–2039) and the mid-term (2040–2059) relative to a historical baseline period (1980–2019). We find that the median projected changes in annual hydropower generation are typically positive—approximately 5% in the near-term, and 10% in the mid-term. However, since the risk of regional droughts is also projected to increase, future planning cannot overly rely on the ensemble median, as the potential of severe hydropower reductions could be overlooked. The assessment offers an ensemble of future hydropower generation projections, providing regional utilities and power system operators with consistent data to develop drought scenarios, design long duration storage and evaluate energy infrastructure reliability under intensified inter-annual and seasonal variability.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗